Oh well that picture is all wrong. Or, well, it's missing key details, and -

"... I think to say Tywin is a friend of Aerys is... a dangerous oversimplification. Friend though he might have been, Aerys was no friend in return. Lord Lannister tolerated every indignity at the Mad King's hand without so much as wavering, but I am truly astonished at the patience of the man. He wanted Cersei to marry Rhaegar and eventually become queen, as logical reward for his dutiful service, and Aerys did not just refuse, but insulted her. Long before then, Aerys drove Tywin's beloved wife," now deceased, from the dangers of childbirth, isn't that cheerful, "out of court and into exile at Casterly Rock with his lust for her. And a thousand other little, little ridiculous slights to prove his power over the man, over and over again. Wanting to be greater than him, by tearing him down at every opportunity. And Tywin weathered them all, in service to his house and to the realm." She shakes her head. "And it was naming Jaime as Kingsguard, removing his right to marry and inherit, taking away Tywin's heir that caused him to finally break. To finally retire and leave court entirely. I would... view the Lannister's situation as more of a hostage situation than one of loyalty, as I understand it Aerys has kept Jaime quite close in a bid to keep his lions in check."

Zakary adopts a frown of concentration and increasing concern as she speaks. Some things match into various pieces of the puzzle he already had, but a few of those he did not expect at all. One most of all: "I understood Jaime Lannister to have wanted to be Kingsguard. They boy I met spoke of it as something akin to a dream of his."

“Boys want many stupid things, my lord,” she says, flatly. “No, ah, offense. I never got the impression Tywin was ever going to let it happen, but then Aerys out maneuvered us all at Harrenhall and snatched him up with dreams of knights and chivalry and honor. It certainly wasn’t with his father’s blessing.”

He has a thought or two about needing one's father's blessing to do something like become Kingsguard but he has to admit that though it be an age of adulthood sixteen is still a bit young to make such vows.

"I see. That... certainly paints a picture. And does not really clarify what Lannister is thinking but does narrow down possibilities for what he could be thinking. That... will be most useful." It's also somewhat troubling that he was missing so much of that picture, it suggests Tywin Lannister plays the game much closer to his chest than Zakary had previously assumed. He'll need to think on this.

“My impression of Tywin - and to be clear this is a distant one, father wanted Lysa to marry into the family, not me - is that he’s… cold. Logical. And above all controlling. Dedicated to his family’s legacy. Not his family, not after his wife died, their legacy. He had his plans for his house to never fall from power again under his watch, and he wouldn’t tolerate anything less from his children.”

"Which would make him willing to accept many indignities if it meant he could secure said legacy... but conversely also means he will not forget them and might want to do something about them. I cannot imagine that he would be happy to have his daughter insulted by the Mad King."

He is also mocked across the realm for having a dwarf for a child, which he cannot like either. Zakary hopes for Tyrion's sake that Tywin is not the type to take it out on him but... he doesn't expect it.

Anavett has suspicions about Tywin's opinions of his second son, but not being asked about that, she doesn't volunteer the information.

"Exactly. So... I expect him to fall in whichever direction will be best for his house. Whether that's the best deal offered, or, well. Whichever side... wins the likely upcoming battle." She gives an awkward smile and shrugs. "So aside from continuing to win, which I know is absolutely mind shattering advice, I would recommend... hm. I suppose being... obviously easy to work with and around. Clear on what you want and how the other side will be treated, and how that would be in his best interests? Possibly even appearing easy to manipulate, but I'm not sure how that could be managed. A marriage match would solidify things, he is really set on Cersei being queen, but you know, actually, I don't think arranged marriages fix everything, so."

Zakary grimaces. "I am not having Elia Martell killed if I can help it, so that would be very difficult to arrange. ...although who knows what in the seven hells is happening there with Lyanna."

Alis straightens up, at that. "...could... Rhaegar be... you know... like me? Really love her, and Elia?"

"Perhaps. We don't have the full story. But I do not imagine Tywin would be happy with Cersei being a third wife of Rhaegar Targaryen. That is not, usually, who one thinks of when thinking of the Queen."

"Yeah. So that's a hard thing to offer him unless you're going to try to put Viserys on the throne, or something, which admittedly is an idea. And also, no, I don't actually have any idea what Rhaegar and Lyanna are about. I wasn't much around either of them, and I'd have expected Rhaegar to be sensible, even if he were in love. Not, not whatever it is that actually happened, running off with her into the woods or something."

He grumbles to himself a little. He expected better of Lyanna.

"Regardless, the rest of the advice is very solid. I can be very legible about these things, and it is actually fairly easy to manipulate me: give me what I want and I will give you what you want, assuming it is not itself something I do not want."

"Thank you. You could also just write him a letter and ask him what he would want from you to stay out of it, if you have any way to get a trusted letter to him. But I assume you've done that already if you can."

He smiles. "He has not received a single one of my letters, from how much response or reaction I have gotten. I meant it when I said he was stonewalling me, I actually literally do not know if he set some system up that would guarantee he would get no missives or something like that for plausible deniability, that could well be the case."

"What an insufferably competent man," snorts Anavett. "Well. It might be as simple as promising to get Jaime released from the Kingsguard, somehow. Maybe retroactively de-legitimize all of Aerys's decisions after a certain point before Harrenhall?"

"...that is close to some things Zak has said before."

"Look, oaths of fealty aren't one-sided, when you swear an oath to do something like become Kingsguard the King is also swearing something back, he is not just getting a free knight. And furthermore, one of the titles the King has is Protector of the Realm but that madman has not protected a single mouse in years, there is a very real sense in which he just has not been a King."

Alis pats his arm.

"...sorry. Yes, I actually think there is a strong argument that his recent decisions have not been legitimate."

Awww. It's very charming, running into someone that has such opinions about responsibility and duty. A Baratheon with an Arryn bent to him, maybe.

"Well, that sounds promising. Say that speech somewhere likely to get back to Lannister, including something about how you think many of Aerys's decisions should be officially recanted on the basis that he was not a proper king, and that might get you somewhere, too. Granted I'm not sure Jaime would thank you for taking him out of the Kingsguard, but." She winces. "Then again, he might. I... worry for his treatment."

"He could always get sworn in again to Rhaegar after Aerys is deposed. He is a man grown, there is only so much Tywin Lannister can do to strongarm him."

"His treatment?"

“He’s… as far as I’ve heard Aerys has kept him very close? Your father and Brandon were not the first to be horrifically killed at his order, just the most famous and egregious. I’ve no true idea of how many he burns, but. What I’ve heard from the smallfolk is…. Horrific puts it lightly. And his mad majesty always watches. A member of the Kingsguard, sworn to shadow and even protect him…” she shakes her head. “Even if he himself is unharmed, I’m worried.”