"And to some extent the line believed to be true is true, right? This is the sort of problem my uncle would solve by swearing an oath. Only in the sense that he thinks most problems that have anything to do with expectations determining reality should be solved by selling his soul to violently yank reality into place."

"To a pretty large extent, where magic is involved.
This isn't the kind of problem people normally solve with oaths; what would it even be? Promising to believe he's not Doomed, to act as if he believes it, to be as convincing as possible when telling others?"

"No, he'd promise that he wasn't Doomed. Because he is an idiot."

"At this point I'm almost surprised he didn't swear to kill you all if you cross the Ice. I know you said he wasn't going to commit more murder, but he did sound serious about hoping the deaths and the lack of help from him would be a deterrent."

He tries to start a sentence several times before shaking his head. "His sons are a lot of his military and civilian command structure, and all highly capable in their own right. If you'd asked me a year ago whether they'd obey an order from him to kill civilians - or to kill us - or, actually, to the point, to kill me particularly - I'd have said there was no chance at all. But I also did not think they would burn the ships. One of his sons promised me that they were just heading out so tempers could cool on both sides, that they'd bring the ships back. Didn't swear, and I wouldn't have asked him for an oath no matter how grave the circumstances, but did outright lie. So now I think maybe I misestimated them all along."

"I'm sorry.

Is there any chance he didn't know what the plan was when he promised that?"

"It'd be a convenient time for his in-general-exceptionally-good ability to predict and to persuade his father to have failed so catastrophically."

"I guess all we can do about it is get across the Ice either way."

"There are actually quite a few things it matters for. He's Fëanáro's heir, so if he knowingly lied to me for several months to smooth his father's departure from here with the ships then that speaks badly of what happens if my uncle recklessly gets himself killed - which he might. And if we think he's planning to meet us with swords we might decide to arrange that he does, that being not an unprovoked attack but a retaliation for the number of times he's threatened, endangered, and orchestrated the deaths of our people.

On the other hand, if he didn't knowingly lie to me, and didn't decide to betray us until the ride over or was somehow stopped from fulfilling his word to us, then he is reliable in the ways I'd gone through life assuming he was reliable and him being in charge of their host is a good outcome. And he knows this and if he thinks we're considering assassinating his father might commit himself towards reacting strongly if we did that, I'm not sure."

"All we can do about it at the moment, I mean.

Your uncle might be less likely to die in the near future than he was yesterday, but I don't at all think they're planning to attack you. And anyone who was there at the time might know that I think that, and that that's what I'd report back, so you probably don't have to worry about them expecting an assassination. Probably."

"In the moment we just do the ice-claiming ritual and hope for the best, maybe fly ahead occasionally to see if they're reacting. It'd be useful to have a sense of what we're meeting on the other side, but you're right that it doesn't change our next action. Unless, I guess, he'd sworn to kill us. Then we'd have to assassinate him or turn back. That's a bit out of character even for him, though."

"I've told you what he says they'll do, and since that's inaction it's pretty plausible."

"And we're planning with it as an assumption."

"For the Ice it would be a good idea to be more prepared. Your implement, if nothing else.

How long was it likely to be before you started, absent magic?"

"Another month, perhaps two. We're eating through our supplies but the ice is really dangerous."

"So it's worth spending a few days preparing, then. Or day-equivalents. Even if we wait the whole month we won't be ready for a ritual like this, but having it be your first piece of magic is just reckless."

"What should our first place of magic be?"

"No fixed answer. 

Most of what I'd know how to demonstrate is binding elementals, which conveniently is also likely to come up on the Ice. There's also the unnoticeability trick; that one's really simple."

"In that case iet's begin with that."

"You'll need a power source." She takes off her pendant. "This isn't one, but it's attached to some.

If you look through your new extra senses, you'll see ambient spirits everywhere. Some of them are moving; if you look closely at the ones that flit along the same paths you can see them trace out connections. Connections between people are usually the most obvious, but there are others. Picking up a rock requires connections between you and the rock and it and the earth, though they're week enough you wouldn't normally see them. Well, I wouldn't. People are more magically relevant. You can strengthen a connection. Practitioners can be called by name and it'll get their attention from a distance; this is uncomfortable and very rude outside of emergencies. For non-practitioners, you have to spend power to strengthen a connection. Press the power source into the path the spirits are taking, and move it along that line.

What you're doing is the opposite. Breaking a connection, so they don't register that you're there. Just move whatever you're using for power perpendicular to the line and sever it.
If the person you're hiding from sees you do it, it's a lot less likely to work. And like with most things, presentation matters. Do it while closing a door or stepping around a tree or something for best results. That's why I fell over when testing if it worked on you; there weren't many places to actually hide in the open."

She glances between the other two a few times so they can see what being seen looks like, then holds out the talisman and looks away.

"What does a strengthened connection do? Make someone more aware of you?"

"More aware, yes. More likely to think of you or come seek you out. Certain kinds of magic that have spillover effects will reach between you more easily. It can eventually make you more important to each other. There's a lot you can do with connections if you get good at it, some of it very creepy."

"I was starting to realize," he murmurs. "And that's not bad karma?"

"Findekáno -" Irissë says.

"I don't currently intend to use magic to manipulate anyone," he says, "and would need a really really good reason. I just want to know how it works."

"I only know the basics of this kind of magic. It's called enchantment on my world, but we might have a name collision.

It's possible to strengthen or break connections permanently, or move them around. Powerful enchanters can steal someone's familiar, which is normally about as doable as stealing their arm. It's possible to outright control people.
I can't tell you how any of this works, but what little enchantment I do know is really intuitive. It might be easier to figure these things out from just the knowledge of what's doable than most fields would be.

Anything you do to someone does count as doing something to them, so if it's an attack it would absolutely be bad karma. How much depends on what you were influencing them to do, why, and what happened as a result even if you couldn't predict it. Like any other way of acting against people, really."

"The Enemy can do things like that. Not with this kind of magic, I hope."