most plane flights in dath ilan land safely
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Noted.  That being the case, her decision is that Sparklord is not to do anything that even slightly risks cabin integrity in order to, probably, merely obtain more definite information about whether a supercriminal exists.  Please continue trying to contact Civilization by means short of that, or as a distant second priority obtain definite confirmation that intelligent meddling was at work.

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That's Mister Sparklord.  But understood.  He'll play this game the boring way, and notify the market as he slices off little chunks of probability for how casual the criminal mastermind could've been about setting up this apparently impossible situation.

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Time passes.

Pretty soon they're coming up on the edge of the calculated time for when an Exception Handling escort might show up; assuming that EH uses supersonic but not hypersonic planes, that EH had a base reasonably close to the emergency landing field, that EH's plane scrambled in 10 minutes, and that they fly to where they expect Flight 43 to be based on accurate course-keeping and satellite data.  All optimistic but not crazy-optimistic guesses.

The window will last maybe 45 minutes before you have to start getting unnervingly pessimistic to explain why Exception Handling still is not there.

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Mister Sparklord has ruled out some of the dumbest and easiest-to-catch ways that a master criminal could have set up the Distracting Surreal Element of the crime.  Mister Sparklord notes for completeness that he's got some suggestive signs of the antenna not being totally a normal antenna anymore once you attach the backup shortwave radio to it, but it's hovering around the edges of what he can detect with improvised instruments.  The probably-sabotaged multimeter doesn't show it.  They're pushing things hard enough that a false positive would be almost expected.  It's definitely not just that the backup shortwave was retuned to a different frequency along with the primary shortwave, that he's ruled out, but only a really lazy master criminal would've tried that in the first place.

(Somebody has now placed a bet that Mister Sparklord is actually the master criminal, here to watch his work play out, but it's only a small bet.)

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"Well, I'm guessing that we don't get an Exception Handling escort flight, even if this plane eventually lands safely in dath ilan, entirely on grounds of it being such a classic way to slowly raise plot tension for the next hour.  You, I presume, should be eager to bet me about this."

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"Yeah, I should be, but I'm not."

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"Well now you're making me nervous.  Why not?  Exception Handling knows where we should be, given when we fell out of comms.  Master criminal or no master criminal, I'm not seeing the consistent story where we don't all breathe a sigh of relief after we spot our escort out the window grilles."

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"Yeah, I'm trying to ask myself.  I know it's absolutely the reasonable guess, I'm just finding myself expecting to lose the bet.  Trying to figure out if my brain is reasoning on anything but the sheer momentum of past experience there."

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"I am not actually sure my brain isn't just going on momentum of past experience.  But if I force a rationalization out anyways, it goes:  We are dealing with a master criminal who put a lot of work into our side of the Distracting Illusion and they will have spent a bunch of time thinking about if there was any possible way to prevent those Exception Handling flights from showing up."

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"How?  Create a major distraction that routes the supersonic planes elsewhere?  I'm seeing the criminal doing it if it's cheap, but that is not cheap.  Even if the distraction itself is cheap, it raises their Wanted Status by three notches."

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"And now here we are, matching 5 seconds of our own thinking against a master criminal who may have considered the question for days."

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"It doesn't matter how cheaply they can cause the distraction, Civilization will know it's them because we right here know it's them and it drastically raises how much attention they get.  I'm not seeing how that logic gets evaded by somebody smarter than I am, at least after my first 5 seconds of thinking about it."

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"There's some larger plot afoot that includes this plane.  Suppose they already expect to have Wanted Status 8 once they're done, and don't care about crimes that rate Wanted Status 5."

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"Because the plot ends with killing everyone on the plane?"

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"I really think there'd be faster ways to accomplish that, plus, that doesn't leave anyone alive who can report on the Possible Isekai Experience.  We're not going to die, we're the audience."

 

"But, yeah... if someone true-dies as part of this, the hypothetical Criminal Mastermind wouldn't particularly care about tacking on some cheap-to-cause distraction that pulled away Exception Handling's nearest supersonic aircraft."

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"I'll register right now that the fun component and even the eternal post-experiential paranoia of my Overly Fictional Experience will be ruined if somebody true-dies in the process."

"Hopefully the Criminal Mastermind has taken this into account and not spoiled their carefully constructed experience for everyone."

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"I'm not actually sure we need to extend our reasoning that far out in the first place.  Diverting a plane like this, with over a hundred people on board, could easily rate much higher in the first place on the Wanted Scale then a cheap distraction for a supersonic airplane.  Safety guardrails are getting trampled here, the amount by which it risks our lives and true-lives is not literally zero even if all reasonable extrapolation by the criminal has us landing safely."

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"I doubt it's multiplying our risk factor by more than... I don't know, three.  Especially if they are on board the aircraft to watch everyone's reactions and could turn the comms back on in an actual emergency."

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"No way.  That's the kind of master criminal who gets caught."

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"Nothing is higher-status for a master criminal than getting caught in a dramatically satisfying way after completing the perfect crime!"

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"That ad campaign is never going to work and I'm not participating in it."

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"It is not an ad campaign!  If we all say it's true and write the books that way and raise our kids that way, it becomes true!"

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"I am personally viscerally offended by this idea and I'm not going to bother trying to figure out why."

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"Anyways, the upshot is that you're not going to bet with me on the flight escort showing up?  Even if I offer you 7-5 on what anyone would say is actually the reasonable guess?"

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