By 10 pm, when Merrin checks the markets before going to bed herself, the Diagnostic markets are feeling pretty optimistic about Kalorm's future!
For sitting up, he made it in not quite within last night's 20% interval, but closer to it than the 50% interval, which would have predicted him not managing it until evening. That market is closed, and the rehab experts (and members of the on-site medical team who contributed bets) and who were optimistic about him have made some money off of Kalorm's physical resilience and absurd determination. Most patients who survived a night as bad as the first night after his cardiac arrest (and this would only be a subset of dath ilani patients, because a substantial fraction of people - especially older people, but around 25% of people in Kalorm's age bracket - have advance directives to go to cryo at the point when even heroic treatment is no longer maintaining their basic vital signs within reasonable parameters) – but anyway, most patients who were that sick take weeks to regain as much mobility as Kalorm already has.
His balance and coordination are definitely still problematic - though it seemed a little better later in the day, with more of the sedation having fully cleared his system - but, leaving aside the fact that he's pretty worn out, at this point he's probably strong enough to stand and support his weight, if they have at least three people within reach and lots of stability aids for holding him steady and preventing him from falling over. They're obviously not about to make him try it now; it's late and he badly needs a solid night's sleep. But at least a solid subcontingent of the rehab experts are in favor of trying it when he wakes up in the morning. Most of the experts are now expecting it to happen at some point tomorrow; the estimates for when Kalorm will be able to maintain a standing position for >3 minutes have tightened up considerably, and the spread is now 9 hours / 13 hours / 22 hours.
For walking, they'll need to work hard on his balance and motor planning. A lot of the training exercises are going to be pretty tedious and irritating, but Treatment Planning has faith in Merrin's ability to talk Kalorm through why they're important and will get him closer to his key goal of "being able to walk out of this hospital." They're still expecting it to take a while, but...maybe not that long of a while, especially if his lungs continue to improve? The 20% / 50% / 80% predictions are now 42 hours / 64 hours / 80 hours.
He's not going to be able to walk 50 meters while still requiring a lot of breathing assistance, including noninvasive positive pressure ventilation, but being on a modest amount of oxygen isn't a reason not to work toward it. The 20% / 50% / 80% spread for reaching that milestone is 4 days / 8 days / 10 days.
By all indications, Kalorm's gut is actually doing really well! He's tolerating the trickled tube feeds with no complaints of nausea or abdominal pain, his gastric tube is draining less than 50 ml/hour, and they actually put him back on an osmotic laxative because his stool was thickening up and threatening to block the rectal tube. (Soon they'll consider removing it, but for Kalorm's comfort and dignity it's preferable to do that once getting himself sitting up and onto a bedside commode isn't a stressful and exhausting three-person production.) At this point, the limitation on letting him have some oral intake is mainly that he's still intubated. If, in the morning, that seems unlikely to change soon, the diet-planning team actually wants to try squirting a few hundred ml of sugar water directly down the gastric tube, to get his stomach used to having contents again and make sure it responds appropriately by emptying into his duodenum. (Treatment Planning wants to do that when he's on his back and sitting up and also awake to tell them if it's setting off nausea.)
The estimates on, specifically, Kalorm drinking a cup of juice the normal way that involves swallowing, are now 20 hours / 36 hours / 4 days; they'll know more about that once they see how he handles the sugar water.
For getting most of his nutrition enterally, the fact that his body was regulating itself towards not having liquid diarrhea constantly is actually a very good sign that his intestinal malabsorption isn't too bad, and most of the solutes in the tube feeds are being digested rather than going straight through. Treatment Planning wants to try increasing the enteral feeds rate, though again they'll wait until Kalorm is awake and alert and can tell them if this prompts cramps or nausea. The predictions for Kalorm being able to meet more than half of his nutritional needs by drinking liquid meal replacements is now 60 hours / 4 days / 7 days.
The only area where he's not doing as well or better than previously expected is respiratory.
36 hours ago, the 20% / 50% / 80% spread for getting him off the ventilator was 26 hours / 40 hours / 4 days, though, as usual, the 20% end was mostly assuming that Kalorm would make ill-advised medical decisions as soon as he was awake enough to do that. As it is, he's pushing himself pretty hard on minimum settings trials - and he probably would be able to manage with noninvasive positive pressure ventilation, though he'd need a higher oxygen concentration - but he isn't demanding to come off the ventilator, and is unlikely to do it in the early hours of the morning. They'll see how he does tomorrow morning once he's rested, and if he does well, maybe float the possibility of getting him extubated and retaining noninvasive ventilation as a backup. He's more than alert enough for it now and, with his gut disaster finally improving, he isn't at nearly such high risk of vomiting and aspirating. They're not expecting to see a huge improvement overnight, though, and the spread on getting him extubated is still 14 hours / 20 hours / 32 hours.
His oxygen needs are decreasing more slowly than the amount of help he needs moving air in and out at all. The spread on how long he'll require supplementary oxygen is 4 days / 7 days / 9 days.