"Okay, what else is part of Science!... replication and reproducibility, right, you'd think that would be obvious and emergent-from the rest of the setup, but it got taught to me as a distinct principle so somebody thought it needed separate focus and emphasis."
"If in Civilization you report that some procedure works for refining ten pounds of spellsilver ore into twenty pounds of spellsilver, the prediction markets on the result of a general or generic experiment like that one, don't all immediately go to 100 and pay out. In this case, even if you took 'video recordings' of your experiment so people knew you weren't just lying - that you had, at least, put in a lot of effort to fake the video - market traders would still be pretty skeptical. The relevant prediction market would be on what would happen if known, competent, careful, previously validated, third-party professional 'replicators' tried the same experiment."
"And I doubt that prediction market would go very far above 0%, if the claim was that you could refine ten pounds of ore into twenty pounds of spellsilver, assuming spellsilver was otherwise known to be mostly pure metal and not have components that could be drawn from the air or other refining materials."
"Now, if you're the original discoverer, you probably find that pretty annoying, right? You published your experimental results, and those stinky prediction markets still don't believe you? So after double-checking your own work - at least, you double-check it first if you're at all sane or smart -"
"Well, mostly, you discover that enormous blatant error you made, where the scales you were using to measure the ore weight were broken."
"But let's say that doesn't happen. Then you buy up all those prediction-market shares that are trading at under 1% that your experiment replicates. The market price starts to go up, obviously, but as it starts to get above 2%, more traders start to come in, checking to see if they think they can make a quick 2% profit off you. Your prediction sounds completely nuts, they figure this is just a prank or somebody making a weird point, so they start to sell at 2%."
"You buy more. Some of the less confident counter-traders drop out, when they see you're willing to spend that much."
"Sometimes the way the story goes from here is that the probability gets as high as 20%. If the proposition at stake is an important one, 20% is high enough that an outside 'venture philanthropist' will come in and fund a 'replication' of the research done by professional 'replicators', because the 'impact' of 'replicating' the original maniacal-experiment, if the results 'reproduce', will sell for more than five times the cost of doing the 'replication'."
"Let's say that doesn't happen, because the idea you can refine ten pounds of ore to twenty pounds of spellsilver is such a ridiculous one that your counterparties are still confident. They keep buying the prediction's price down even as you keep trying to buy it up. It never gets above 4%."
"Once you've spent a large portion of your savings on amassing a huge position like that, you spend a pretty large chunk of whatever's left, on the actually quite expensive project of paying respected 'replicators' with the 'certs' to actually resolve the prediction market, to test your method. Which they will do very very carefully, taking videos of everything, that you inspect to say beforehand rather than afterwards if you think they're doing anything wrong along the way."
"Usually the way this story ends is that somebody loses a chunk of their savings and gains a valuable life lesson about overconfidence."
"Sometimes, very rarely, it ends with a lot of shocked prediction-market traders who lost a much bigger collective chunk of their own wealth, and a story that makes all the newspapers. Your name becomes one of the glorious Science!-heroic stories that inspires the next generation to not just believe what everybody else believes. World-class professional sex workers will compete to seduce you just to be able to advertise to their other clients that they won that competition."
"Also you can sell your prediction market shares at a 25-fold profit. But that's not why you did it, really. The money is just how - how other people can know that it was all real, because real money changed hands."