"Possibly.  What do you think is the probability you're right?"

"....I don't know! Lower, since you asked that!"

"Well, everyone close your eyes, then raise your hands from the lowest level for zero probability, to the highest level you can reach for 1 probability."

There's a pretty obvious split between the students who'd solved the problem themselves by the time Gregoria volunteered an answer and the students who hadn't and are just trying to guess off general principles of how Keltham enjoys torturing people.

Keltham is starting to get the impression there's tiers of students here, even in this population already selected on Intelligence.  Carissa-Asmodia-Ione-Meritxell, Pilar-Peranza-Gregoria-Tonia, Everyone-Else.

...well, it's not a very nice outcome, but, it is well known that sometimes in a startup, somebody has to take responsibility for deciding that not everyone has the same ability level and maybe not everyone gets to stick around.

Part of him wants to wait and see if intelligence headbands fix everything, but maybe now that Governance is taking the project more seriously, the correct thing to do is put those headbands on smarter people.  They're almost a week in, and a week is when they said that their original one-week contracts ran out.

Argh, he hates this and must think about it eventually but will think about it later.  He's too selfish to just decide that people need to get fired for the Good of Golarion, the personal awfulness is looming large compared to that.

Anyways, Keltham walks through the derivation by rules.

    P(Teleport \/ Dimension Door) = P(Teleport) + P(Dimension Door) - P(Teleport & Dimension Door)

Obviously you can get the fourth quantity if you have any of the other three, because algebra, and that's all they need to do here.

    P(Teleport) = P(Teleport \/ Dimension Door) - P(Dimension Door) + P(Teleport & Dimension Door) = 0.8 - 0.4 + 0.3 = 70%

The proof that this is all still true conditional on everyone being a 5th-circle wizard is left as an exercise for later... actually, Keltham doesn't think he's formally given them all the axioms they'd need for that, so, making up the required axioms is also part of the exercise.

Ione would, given her own rein, point out to Keltham right now that nobody has actually set aside time during the day for anybody to do homework exercises.

Sevar?

Yes, go ahead.

"I observe that there is not, currently, any time actually set aside in anybody's schedule for doing exercises later."

"That's really a very good point.  Ione, how come you are the only person present who ever says anything when I risk piling too much stuff on people before they've had an Owl's Wisdom or when I don't notice that nobody has any scheduled off-hours unless I happen to decide to snuggle Carissa and then she doesn't have any off-hours?"

"It's possible they'd give you a different answer but I'd say it's a Nethys versus Asmodeus thing."

"Isn't Nethys... Neutral everything?  You'd think that Evil would take better care of itself?"

"You might hope that but unfortunately it's the kind of Evil where they all want to do incredibly well in class and master all the material and get promoted and become rich and not the kind of Evil where anyone anywhere along the line will ever ask for a ten-minute break."

"Some guy I talked to said that Nethys was the god of insanity and self-destruction along with magic and knowledge."

"Yes, that's all very true, and yet."

"Well.  Keep me informed."

Ione would like to note that she did not plan for that to happen right now, and she knows it's not a good look that it happened right now, but she nonetheless had those answers prepared because it was incredibly obvious that Keltham would eventually notice and ask, and dath ilan is closer to Nethysian than Asmodean in several ways that only she understands and people should let her explain it at some point.

"- Keltham, does dath ilan have a military. Like, people whose full time job is to be ready to fight wars if there were one."

"There's a potential military that's supposed to be very rapidly actualizable so as to not make it easy to take over Civilization by being the only faction with a military?  I'm not sure what you mean by full-time job, there are industries where people work four hours every other day for normal wages and there's much smaller industries where everybody works ten hours a day with one day off every six days for much higher wages.  Since the military isn't actually fighting anybody, the people who maintain it in potentia and a state of readiness, or who crew the serious weapons, are four-hour people.  If an actual fight started they'd convert to fourteen hours a day until it was over.  They do practice runs to make sure they can."

" - you know, even if you had a military you do everything differently enough maybe the intuition wouldn't transfer. So, at the Worldwound, the first thing you do with new recruits is seventy-hour weeks, of physical exercises and training and digging ditches and stuff, because the first thing you need to learn to serve in a military is how to do the thing that's been assigned to you, alongside other people you can similarly rely on to do the thing assigned to them. It's not about Good or Evil; the paladins have basically the same thing. Maybe in dath ilan you teach everyone enough Law, explicitly, that they have that expectation of common doing-the-job without having gone through a really long hard time of doing-the-job, but we don't, so that's how we build it.

And obviously in some situations you want your soldiers to exercise initiative and argue with their orders and point out problems they observe, but - 'that sounds hard' isn't generally a situation where you do? As long as you're sourcing your girls from ones who're cleared to take the Worldwound oath - and I think you probably should be sourcing from that, it's the only bar we've got for - for being at all ready to start on this path - then you're sourcing from people in training to spend the next decade of their lives in a brutal fight in the fucking tundra against an infinite horde of demons, and no, they're not going to complain that they've got more tasks assigned than hours in the day. ....I have no idea what Ione's life plans are but I have a weird suspicion that while she's cleared for the Worldwound she actually just wants to do Nethys things which involve no boot camp at all. ...that's what it's called, boot camp, I don't know how that'd translate."

"I think I can guess it but, Ione, your response."

...you're not helping me, Keltham.

But still, she can guess Civilization's answer, that Keltham wants to hear from Nethys.

"Digging ditches isn't the same as figuring out Law."

"Yeah.  Mental performance degrades as you work longer hours in a day, and some things rely on peak mental performance.  There are, though they are rarer, four-hour industries that pay higher than the ten-hour ones, and the people in those industries don't try to do more than four hours of work per day because they'd start making mistakes."

"I've been stupid, here.  Even if you want to work long hours for great profit - which, I mean, we're all young, and it's not like I've been keeping myself down to ten hours - I should still be trying to schedule the peak-dependent hardest mental work that takes a Fox's Cunning earlier in the day.  I have been doing that with myself and learning wizard spells, which is more straightforward, during the evening, but I wasn't properly optimizing that for everyone else."

"And you still need any time to think about things on your own or just catch your breath."

"Yep, I agree with that. If the long hours weren't a deliberate move for dath ilan reasons then the hours should be considerably shorter, and there should be unscheduled downtime. But as a psychology fact you're using to predict the world -- it's not going to break down Good/Evil, it's going to break down Law/Chaos, or at least that's what I'd predict, because the Lawful countries  take kids like us and raise them to close the hole in the planet. Which is the wrong set of habits for the situation we're now in. But the same set you'll find in Lastwall, when you go there, or Mendev."

Carissa is being completely truthful about this. Paladins are famously inclined to work themselves to death to the point where much of the labor of paladin orders is getting them to do that a little slower.

"Ione, counterpoint?"