Hell is truth seen too late.
- Thomas Hobbes
Character Name: Carissa Sevar Alignment: Lawful Evil. Character Level: 7* Deity: Asmodeus Homeland: Cheliax Class: Wizard* School: Universalist (subschool: Arcane Crafter) Languages: Chelish Taldane (native), Infernal (not fluent)
STR 8
CON 10
DEX 10
INT 22 (18)
WIS 14
CHA 15
Magic Items:
Armillary amulet, headband of vast intelligence +4
Skills:
Spellcraft +23, +27 when producing magic arms and armor, further +5 from armillary amulet, Bluff +16, Knowledge(Arcana) +16, Appraise +13, Sense Motive +12, Knowledge(Religion) +12, Knowledge(nobility) +11, Knowledge(local) +11, Knowledge(planes) +11, Knowledge(geography) +10, Diplomacy +9, Knowledge(history) lol
Feats:
magical aptitude
eschew materials
craft wondrous items
craft magic arms and armor
skill focus: spellcraft
skill focus: bluff
Arcane Discovery:
Traits:
(*) Stealth Cleric: Your character has somehow ended up the cleric of some god, without knowing this about theirself, and their god is laying low. They do not receive cleric spells or orisons or domains and cannot channel, until either their god wills it so, or your character discovers their nature and succeeds in using it. Effects on alignment auras are halved.
PL-log: Subevent 1 of PL-incident Even She Doesn't Know It
Time: Day 4 / midday
See also: Subevent 12 of PL-incident Wrong Genre Savvy Is Contagious Via Mindreading
Notes: PL-subject #1 is outside Otolmens Containment Zone while event occurs
Epistemic status: Reconstructed by back-inference from cumulative later observation Nethys is still here, Nethys is still everywhere, Nethys is just not together enough to socialize with other gods
Irori, in His godhood as in his mortality, is not the kind of martial artist who goes around cleaning up others' messes; he is the kind who cleans up his own. He is Lawful Neutral, not Lawful Good.
This is how Irori was in life:
A starving beggar girl is not his own doing, and he may walk on past her without qualm.
If the starving girl begs a gold coin from him, and perchance he gives it to her, and later she is beaten and killed for it, that is also not his concern; she made her own choice to ask. She was too young to know what she did? What of it? All mortals are too young in the end.
If the starving girl begs a copper from him, and instead he foolishly gives her a ruby he feels he has not himself properly earned, thinking mainly of the consequences to himself but not to her, and this starts a chain of events in which the girl is kidnapped by a criminal king and interrogated to find where the ruby came from - then there will be one less criminal king in that city before the next day's dawn. Even if he is young enough, back then, for that to be a dangerous fight, he goes to it without hesitation. It is not that he is protective; it is that he is responsible.
In godhood Irori cannot afford to be so strict with Himself. His actions affect too much for too many. But Irori is still the god who grew out of that mortal - not by being ascended, but by doing it all the hard way.
A soul that Irori marked for His attention is now calling out to Him, in her hour of trouble and despair.
It is very rare for Irori to intervene, in a case like that. He would not often do so even if He could do it costlessly. To protect mortals from trials is not Irori's Way.
And yet Irori does notice, and investigates, and not only because of the Otolmens connection. For any mortal otherwise strong enough to interest Him, it ought to take extreme conditions to drive her into a state of such utter frantic determination.
This mortal did not ask for Him to meddle in her life, whether by bargaining with Asmodeus or otherwise. Has she come to some greatly ill fate that is His own doing?
Even if so, as a god facing a god's choices, Irori probably cannot afford to do anything about it. Probably all He can do is contemplate His own failure and consider how to do better next time.
But it is impossible that He would not want to know.
Irori cannot easily see much of the mortal realm, aside from the contents of certain determinations and aspirations among those sufficiently already aligned to His ways. He is looking at minds facing in His own direction. Flesh and stone are shadows. Blurry shadows, not legible ones. He can tell the mortal is in the Imperial palace in Egorian in Cheliax; little more.
The mortal in whose life He meddled thinks that she is facing total extinction, it is the one thing she fears above everything else, and to think one more thought is all of her desire. She is striving with all all all that is inside her, to avoid that one fate, to continue. She is in pain. Another is about her, though Irori cannot well see that one, a being of powerful magic.
That's statistically improbable, to be something that would have happened to the mortal regardless, if Irori's meddling had any effect on her life at all.
...and it is a little extreme as an ill fate of His own doing, to make no effort at all to clean up.
All right then. He can take responsibility for this mess of His making, without too much cost.
If this mortal becomes His cleric, Irori will be able to find her again in time. Eventually He will get around to questing some powerful caster pledged to Him, to bring her forth. When? Whenever that becomes convenient to Him. It may be a hundred years, five hundred, it matters not to a statue. If the mortal then must leave all she knew behind her, and begin again, well, one must overcome such challenges along the Way.
But Irori should not make her His knowing cleric. She is near something more than powerful enough to read her mind, and see the knowledge in her if she knows; or maybe just notice by normal means, if she stops being so afraid. And then this other being will, say, planeshift the mortal into Abaddon instead; or attempt to torment her into giving up Irori. He does not wish to make the mortal's situation worse again; this would indicate His failure to learn from experience.
The conditions for forming a stealth cleric are rare, both intrinsically and by compact. Gods cannot go about stealth-clericing whomsoever they please.
By compact, to make any cleric, they must have called out to You, or to a predicate that includes You not too broadly. The natures of god and mortal must be sufficiently aligned, as always for clerics; the only possible exception is your oracle, if you are foolish enough to have one of those, rather than zero.
And improbably: The pressure of a god upon a mortal's soul, impressing clerichood into it, is usually very detectable to mortals even if you try to be slow and gentle about it. Even if it is not a revelation in glory, it's there, and the mortal might be suspicious of what had just occurred. Especially if they'd just prayed for aid.
To create a stealth cleric, she must be extremely distracted while that is happening.
But these strange conditions are met. And so, like trying to kiss a kitten's forehead softly enough not to wake it, Irori presses himself into Carissa Sevar but gently, not opening yet the new channels whose outlines are traced into her, only forging the connection leading back to Him.
So now Carissa Sevar is, as most other gods would see it, something of Irori's, though she knows it not.
The thought does not occur to Irori at all, to message Asmodeus claiming victory in a contest that Asmodeus might conceive to Himself to have begun. The Way is to succeed at what you set your hand to, to win, not to have others acknowledge that you have won.
Carissa Sevar's progress along her Way is all that is meaningful. Whether she calls Asmodeus Lord for a time is not relevant, except insofar as how that changes her Way, or speeds her progress on it. If there were any victory to be won here, it would belong to the mortal and not to Irori; for her Way is not the Way of Irori but the Way of Carissa Sevar.
And also if there were any such contest, it would not yet be over, for Carissa Sevar's existence will not end this day.
Then Irori goes upon His way, for many other matters call Him, and He does not have time to wait around watching a statue be levitated and floated away.
...to, as it turns out, an aftercare chamber.
One really can't blame Irori for not especially guessing that this would be the case. He was not, in mortal life, the kind of martial artist who gets way into that sort of thing.
Irori definitely isn't expecting the incredibly annoyed call that He gets from Otolmens a few hours later.
Osirion's highest ranking spy in Cheliax is not a very flappable person, as one might imagine from the job description, but he looks nervous at present.
"Do you think the world is going to end?" Prince Merenre, sixth circle cleric of Abadar and heir presumptive to the pharaoh, asks him tiredly, looking up from the report.
"....in truth, your highness, in cases like this, I don't deal in what's actually going to happen, just what people are saying."
"Ah huh. Do you have plans to spend the next couple of months in Aktun."
"....yes, I do, your highness. Though that's partially because of possibilities less serious than the destruction of the world, and - obviously if my duties require me -"
"I'm not sure I can afford to pay you enough to stay," Merenre says. "Though do give me time to put an offer together, before you abscond, it will be generous."
"You're not - upset about the report, your highness?"
"I'm incredibly upset about the report! Almost nothing in it can possibly be true! Half of it contradicts itself! And I will pay you something like half the gems in Osirion for another report of similar quality."
The spy considers it, for a moment. "I'm honored, your highness, by the offer, but - well. Would you take it."
"- I mean, I'm well past the point where there's vanishing marginal personal utility to money, I'd probably just be weighing how much I want to prevent the destruction of the world."
"Do you ever think, your highness, that maybe the world has it coming?"
"....no," says Merenre, completely truthfully and a little coldly.
" - okay, do you ever think that maybe Cheliax has it coming."
"Cheliax has something coming. I really just wish I knew what it is."
"I assume same for Asmodeus and Nethys, Asmodeus and Cayden Cailean - I'm going to say maybe 50 percent for Asmodeus and Nethys, because it'd explain how upset Otolmens is, and, uh, 1 percent for Cayden Cailean. The report author apologized for including it. ....'The library of Project Lawful looks tiny but apparently has as many books available as a major academy library, if someone asks the Project Lawful girl serving as a librarian to 'go look for them in another room', not that there's a Forbiddance in place or anything.'"
"Right. Well, it's possible, but also mind the possibility that this is abject nonsense, which I think will become more obvious as I read through more of these. - every devil in Hell has heard of Carissa Sevar by name, I will give you whatever fucking odds you want against that. Project Lawful has been instrumental in all of Cheliax's military victories over Nidal - we did check if they were using any new tactics, and they're not - less than five percent on that - Project Lawful is intensively studying the history of Taldor in order to launch a team of operatives into Taldor's past which will convert Taldor to worship of Asmodeus in the present - less than one percent on that -"
"I mean, I'm sure they've got ancient magical secrets, but not a particular concentration thereof - I'd go for Azlant, anyone would, and if you're constraining the places you'd go for to ones where learning you're studying it doesn't suggest any supernatural abilities, I'd study ancient Osirion - and then there's 'Even Barons of Hell can't afford to buy the souls of Project Lawful girls in Dis's markets.'"
"We have a list, I don't know if it's a full list, it doesn't have Carissa Sevar on it and it seems pretty well attested that she's an involved party and maybe there are some more who didn't sell their souls or whose having sold their souls isn't widely known in Hell. The names are all girl wizard students of the most recent graduating class in Ostenso."
" - that raises several questions. One, can we help any of their families defect or something. Two, what share of girl wizard students in the graduating class does that represent, do we know any wizarding students in that class not to be on the project, distinguishing features? Three, Ostenso's where the interdiction is so I guess that confirms what's up with that.
Four, why girls."
"One obvious hypothesis is that our stolen cleric is able to get books from the First Vault - or whatever he does - through a sorcerous bloodline and they're trying to breed it. That's the first thing everyone comes up with, because otherwise why girls, but - I don't know, it's still sort of unsatisfying? It wouldn't make their souls all that valuable, that'd have to be something transferrable to them directly, owning a soul doesn't give you a claim on its offspring. ...also I flatter You that any cleric of Yours would think to demand to be permitted a Sending to the head of Your church before having a bunch of children in Cheliax."
Merenre looks back down at the paper. "If an event worth celebrating happens to you, one of the girls on Project Lawful will already be standing behind you and will offer you cake. It's good cake and eating it seems to be completely safe as far as anyone can tell. Nobody knows what happens if you refuse to eat it."
" - you know what? Sure. Find someone whose wife is very close to giving birth, send them out with high-level escorts to an inn a couple of blocks from the capital in Egorian - completely licit travelling adventuring party - Sending them when the baby is born, and if we get a cake girl, remand her to Osirion in order to investigate her role in the imprisonment in Cheliax of Our cleric."
"One of the girls on Project Lawful who died during the Nidal attack got sorted to Elysium' - seems pretty likely. 'And then came back -' almost certainly not, but maybe they substituted a replacement in order to not have an embarrassing incident, or maybe they were holding her family hostage, or capable of threatening her even in Elysium.
'One of the Project Lawful girls used 5 different cantrips in a day' - fits with my going theory, but I want to hear yours first -"
"Possible. Mine is that the thing our priest figured out is something like a way to give sorcery to people who aren't born with it. INT-based sorcery, presumably, or why have a bunch of wizard students as test subjects. With some special abilities that are really, stunningly valuable, and expected to carry over on death, thus the rise in prices in Hell. And something that produces the reports of - the girls also being clerics, the girls having too many cantrips, the girls doing things that shouldn't be possible -"
"I mean, they do still have all the lying. And the torture. And only the stupid soul-based prediction market. But yes, we'll need to rethink things. If that's true. And need to rethink different things, if the class of theories where the priest is borrowing books from the First Vault are true, and rethink yet more things, if the public Project Lawful is a distraction to cover for something much more effectively kept secret..."
"Tried a lot of different stuff since we don't know how they did it. Some of them are permanently but dismissibly transformed into chunks of granite. Some are permanently but dismissibly transformed into rags that were dipped in a highly reactive alchemical reagent which will cause a massive explosion if exposed to oxygen, and are now in glass jars in a room without any. Some are in a demiplane, some are in a bank in Aktun, some are in Ismat's workshop so we'll know if ones in a very standard and knowable location got taken. I don't think they have the ability to do that at will. You'd expect to see a fall in the value of Chelish souls with decades more expected lifespan."
Aspexia Rugatonn makes her greetings to Keltham. She wishes she could check this with Sevar, but thought of it too late; this, too, is an interaction that should occur in the alter-Cheliax. She will try to keep it brief.
If Keltham learns or deduces anything about how Forbiddances might work, including by reference to other protective spells that depend on caster circle, Keltham might deduce that perhaps Forbiddances also ought to be cast by the most powerful cleric available, and that Aspexia Rugatonn should therefore have been on-site right after the Forbiddance went up. And then wouldn't it be strange if she didn't hang around while Keltham was teleported in, just in case Nidal attacked; and then wouldn't it be strange if she didn't greet Keltham at all? She didn't for the last Forbiddance; but Keltham now believes, correctly, that Cheliax considers him more of an important person after the Nidal attack on him and resulting godwar.
"Greetings again, Keltham," says Aspexia, looking as warm and grandmotherly as before. She is not, on reflection, 'Aspie'; she has, on reflection, started to side with Sevar about the importance of the Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus seeming relatively more Lawful. Isidre can take credit for Aspexia's little prank, if it requires crediting at all. "I'm afraid I have a great deal of work to do today, and this is not a good time for us to talk," with Sevar out of the loop, "but be advised I will be doing that work on-site, so don't be too surprised if you see me eating lunch by myself later in the day, or some such."
"We were instructed to rush you here as soon as the most basic defenses were in place for you; it is apparently significantly safer for you here, than in the Imperial palace in Egorian. Other defenses are still being emplaced, and while they are, the Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus may as well happen to do her day's paperwork from here."
"I'm sorry, but I'm really not comfortable answering that, under these circumstances. I cannot just point an accusing finger at somebody especially if the cleric thing turned out to be wrong, Asmodia has no superpowers, and there was no significant conflict with the Queen.”
Keltham immediately thought 'Isidre'. Isidre plans to convert the world to Lawful Goodness. She is carrying out this plan via a program of illegal emotion-reading and mind-control, which has penetrated Chelish Governance to a far greater degree than the Grand High Priestess or the Queen would think even possible.
"I am sorry for having asked, then, and see your point."
"Should you change your mind regarding the wisdom of answering, keep in mind that I am, in principle, the member of government who would be most responsible for dealing with 'tropes' if they existed."
Aspexia gives him a polite nod and departs.
Ione, Pilar, and Asmodia are also away from the site, in queue for additional Security screening supposedly.
Keltham might want to make inquiries, upon seeing them again, regarding prophecies, or excursions outside the old Forbiddance, or trips to Hell.
So somehow those three will only manage to get to the new site after Sevar is back, and functioning sufficiently to authorize any necessary lies.
And as for why all this visit is happening, really?
When Aspexia read Abrogail's proposed outline of what she intended to do to Sevar, it occurred to Aspexia that perhaps, if Sevar is out of communication with the Project Lawful site for an extended period, maybe somebody who can read Keltham's mind should be on the Project Lawful site as a substitute for Sevar. Just in case Keltham picks this particular morning to suddenly go closet himself and think for three hours.
It seems like prudent policy even before considering how much that could plausibly be a 'trope'.
So... study magic, learn more about Cheliax and Golarion, see if they can teleport in a metallurgy expert so Keltham can hear about the current state of art in mining and refinement of metals, maybe ask Governance to send him the politically convenient version of the gains-splitting bargain to see how loudly Keltham screams about it...? Keltham isn't currently thinking of anything else he can do with everyone missing.
Carissa is going to be okay though, right oh my ass brain, would you stop that, I decided this was a good idea it has all kinds of safeguards and you won't find out what the results were until Carissa gets back so right now these are not productive thoughts to be having at me.
Pilar has a sense of what her curse wants to do (sigh) and she's not going to fight it without a reason, so she lets herself leave the room, go down a hall, go down a set of stairs, still holding the cake. It's one of the nicer and larger ones she's delivered, now that she looks at it, very formal.
The first floor of the inn is a busy restaurant, presently in the middle of serving lunch. It's clearly an upscale adventurers' inn, not one for nobles or rich merchants. You can tell by the decor, which is awfully cosmopolitan for Cheliax, and by the security, who look like they mean business potentially against very dangerous adversaries, and by how quickly the waitress takes it in stride to have a very conspicuous girl come down stairs she definitely at no point went up. "Can I help you?"
Pilar hands her the cake, and lowers her voice about as far as it can go. "This cake is for the party of Osirian adventurers who'll be arriving shortly. Please wait until two minutes and forty-five seconds past the early-hour bell, then give this cake to them with compliments of the cake girl."
Pilar has by now worked out that, whenever she appears for somebody without her having chosen that, they have at least heard of her. Maybe they know her as Pilar and not the cake girl, back in the villa when this first happened; or they've heard a rumor about the cake girl, in the Imperial palace, but not the name Pilar.
But she has never suddenly found herself with a cake for somebody, who has no idea of who she is or why she'd be there. And that goes by the final recipient, not by anybody who hands the cake over on instructions.
Pilar does not, in fact, know any Osirian adventuring parties, or anybody who'd plausibly be on one.
Which leaves the question of how an Osirian adventuring party knows either Pilar Pineda, or the cake girl.
Pilar directs a furious thought at her curse about how these people are not street orphans, they are here to kidnap and torture her and would eventually figure out a way to do that in a way she finds genuinely unpleasant. Furthermore, in case it has escaped her curse's notice, she is Lawful Evil, operative word Evil, and an extremely loyal servant of Lord Asmodeus and His interests. She doesn't think her curse can actually stop her if she tries, or at least, Pilar is very willing to fight and find out.
Pilar is Lawful Evil, operative word Lawful.
Her curse trusted her with this. She can well serve Lord Asmodeus's interests here, but she has to not do horrible things from the perspective of Chaotic Good, using her curse's power and knowledge, in the course of that.
Her curse wouldn't have steered her into the trap, obviously. That wouldn't have been nice either. But her curse could have just let the whole thing fly by without Pilar noticing.
Pilar walks over to the most impressive-looking inn security, and uses Message this time. "I have a Crown security issue that needs to be escalated as quickly as possible. Point me or escort me to the nearest state Security who can escalate me further immediately. Do not talk about this afterwards."
The man raises his eyes, then grabs her arm and Dimension Doors.
They're at a palace security checkpoint, now, just outside the Forbiddance.
"FREEZE, DON'T RESIST", someone instructs them instantly, and casts Hold Person; the man makes a face as though it's taking him a lot of effort to let the spell touch him, but he does permit it.
The Hold Person is powerful enough Pilar couldn't really throw it off if she wanted to.
Well, Pilar won't say anything then, but she will think very loudly that, first of all, most people are not authorized to read her mind, and second, that she has an issue for immediate escalation to the Grand High Priestess, also somebody needs to note down which inn they just came from because Pilar doesn't know that.
Message repeats.
Palace Security dismisses the spell after a couple very fast exchanges. "Kid says she urgently needs to be escalated higher," the retired adventurer said. "You want me to keep escorting her, or do you have it from here."
"We have it from here. This is classified, don't speak of it to anyone."
"Yeah, yeah."
"I either need personal control of a Crown intelligence issue, including the ability to consult Crown intelligence about actions that best serve Lord Asmodeus's interests and the ability to direct Security accordingly, or I need somebody to assume command of this issue whom the Grand High Priestess trusts to deal with deranged fucking god-agreements."
A surrounding silence has obviously already been cast at this point.
"Curse directed me to where I now expect an incoming Osirian adventuring party who's heard of the cake girl to try to kidnap me. Curse doesn't want them hurt, curse said it trusted me, and appealed to my Lawfulness, and told me to act like a god, and said it won't do this again if I don't. I can serve Lord Asmodeus's interests as much as I want so long as I don't do anything my curse hates, like getting the Osirians caught and tortured, which to be clear I would be incredibly comfortable with -"
"I need direction on whether to obey this bargain that I never actually made. If no, I'll give the data to Security. If yes, I either need somebody else who understands deranged Chaotic Good curses to assume command over me and this issue, or I need authorization to control it myself. I prefer the former."
...oh no.
"Authority over local Security, and ability to consult with Crown intelligence over which fun non-hurtful prank on the Osirians will most serve our Lord's interests."
Pilar isn't doing anything as unprofessional as making a face on purpose, but hopefully her control isn't perfect and therefore the Grand High Priestess can hear her face trying to shout 'NO' through the mirror.
That was the correct answer. Well, a correct answer. Including that suppressed horrified expression, if Pineda looked happy this wouldn't be a good idea at all.
"Try keeping the bargain this time so we can observe what happens."
"Everyone I trust to correctly handle god-agreements with Chaotic forces is outside the Palace, mostly at the front of the war."
"If you listen humbly to your elders and ignore anything they suggest about violating implied god-agreements, I believe you can handle this yourself. If at some point it looks like I'm wrong and you start expecting it to not go well, I trust you to walk away from it without aggrieving your curse."
"My secretary will supply you with that authorization. Do not explain why you have it or where the real constraints are coming from."
"Any else top urgent?"
Actually, the first thing Pilar needs to do - after saying that the waiting Skymetal Sword guard can go back, since they want the place to look normal, also her curse doesn't want to inconvenience the guy too much - is to talk to Crown intelligence about what the Crown wants Osirion to end up believing.
Security isn't going to be preventing these people from returning home, Cheliax can't hold them to trade for something else. Lord Asmodeus's interests can only be served here by giving them some form of false impression or false information, so far as Pilar can tell.
Her curse seems to believe that giving another country wildly misleading military intelligence is a happy fun prank! Pilar is not actually preventing herself from thinking repeatedly about how incredibly stupid that is. She has much less practice at controlling her own thoughts than most Chelish people of her status. Her curse, thankfully, does not seem to care.
If they've already heard enough rumors to test whether there's a cake girl, with a reasonably well-designed test, then a) what a fucking disaster, it's presently unclear who's going down for it but someone's going to have to, and b) they're not going to be able to convince them that Project Lawful is nothing big.
This top Chelish expert on Osirion affairs just got emergency-teleported back from the front lines to the palace for this, just ran into the room, and has not actually heard about any of these rumors.
"Can somebody very quickly brief me on who the cake girl is, what Project Lawful is, and why it's a disaster that Osirion has already heard of her?" he says.
Everybody is now looking at Pilar because, obviously, who else in this room would a) be in charge and b) know what people here are allowed to know about what Project Lawful is and why it matters.
"Somebody else say which rumors about the cake girl Osirion is likely to have heard," Pilar says. "I mainly know the true version, I have not been tracking exactly which rumors exist."
Somebody who actually has been in the palace the last few days, internally screaming forever after the manner of competent intelligence officers dealing with other people who are not competent intelligence officers, recites the basics:
If something nice happens to you that people in non-Chelish countries would throw some kind of fucking party for, a girl is already there and already has a cake to offer you.
It's actually pretty good cake.
Nobody knows what happens if you refuse to eat it.
The cake girl doesn't give a shit about Forbiddances or wards on the room.
Nobody has spotted her teleporting.
Oh, and also the cake girl is one of the Project Lawful girls etcetera etcetera so she presumably has arcane vision, casts both cleric and wizard spells, her soul's price in the markets of Dis is astronomically high, may possibly be Abrogail Thrune, got transformed prettier after she joined Project Lawful, etcetera etcetera.
That's the main line of the rumors, there's too many variant versions for anybody to keep track of.
"Ah," says the guy who just got back from the front lines. That makes a lot more sense than panicking over Osirion believing a completely deranged -
- actually no it doesn't make sense. "Without meaning to inquire as to anything I should not know, if that rumor's false, are we unhappy to have Osirion believe it? Should we just be trying to confirm whatever it is they believe? How did they end up believing it?"
"You," Pilar says to one of the Securities hanging out who's not an intelligence officer, but one cleared to gofer for intelligence work, "find somebody who knows about the diamond thing, which I have not previously been cleared for, and tell them they immediately need to be in this room advising me with respect to what we do or don't want Osirion believing about a connection between the diamond thing and Project Lawful via the cake girl. Go."
Pilar turns back to the poor confused soul from the front lines. "I would have thought that we didn't want more attention called to Project Lawful at all but maybe that ship has sailed."
He nods. "With all due disrespect to a number of people who should already be in Hell, that ship had in fact probably sailed after Nidal attacked your project site, we launched an emergency response with dozens of people with six seconds worth of intelligence clearance, and then a fucking god-war started immediately afterwards."
"That level of international scrutiny on an event with that many witnesses is simply not evadable. It's not sufficient if the witnesses were all soul-sold and most are now on the Nidal front. If you visibly block all information and all avenues of investigation about what started a god-war, some adversaries will start burning ninth-circle scrolls in order to kidnap targets or extract information from them."
"The explosion of rumors may be the better case than that scrutiny focusing narrowly on only things that actually happened."
"The general policy for feeding spies misinformation is that it should be hard to immediately verify, leave them confident they weren't noticed, suggest further investigation within Cheliax, and contain things from a shortlist, per country, the Osirion expert will have theirs but it might be a bit out of date -"
"- keep enough cruft in the water that no one can narrow down on what might be true," a senior person says instantly. "'Project Lawful is a bunch of girls with random novel powers', fine, let's have them be as random and as novel and as uninformative about what actually happened to the Project Lawful girls as possible."
IF THERE WAS ANY SUCH PART, YES, THAT WOULD BE AN OPTION.
"Not from among the items listed. We would need to generate new ones..."
...though actually, on reflection, the 'cake girl' is a weird intervention by Cayden Cailean which has never made any sense at all; and which seems almost absolutely unrelated to any of the things that are actually important about Project Lawful.
"General policy question," Pilar says. "How do we feel about focusing attention on points that are true but really really fucking misleading?"
Pilar is pretty sure she doesn't teleport, she's not sure what she does instead but teleportation doesn't feel right. It's not weird teleportation, it's not-teleportation-at-all.
But, okay, if they don't want to focus attention on teleportation with respect to the diamonds, cool.
"Cake girl should be able to walk in visibly and without teleporting, at the correct time, if she tries. Then what? I'd expect her to be kidnapped and tortured for information, but how do they do that, exactly? And is there a way to make sure she ends up in Hell shortly after" CORRECTLY THIS TIME "which doesn't make it clear that we knew all along what would happen and were prepared for it? Assume the cake girl can maintain her will under torture for an extended period and is able to supply deliberate misinformation, but would like to be sure of dying in time to get Raised after dawn tomorrow."
"I don't think we should assume that of cake girl unless we've already done it to her. And even if she's ready to be Asmodeus's heroic servant, they'll have mindreading."
"The obvious way to make sure someone who is captured makes it to Hell is to give them a slow-acting, but not noticeable or easily treatable, poison; when noticed they generally won't assume she'd been poisoned before being captured."
Everyone looks to the Osirian expert for how Osirion does interrogations.
"Osirion doesn't consider itself bound not to employ torture, but does little of it by Chelish standards because it's not really very useful for their goals. The pharaoh is known to have a Sense Motive of basically mindreading, but he doesn't involve himself in much directly. They also have actual mindreading, obviously."
Pilar is confused by the concept of torture not being useful; she has always had the impression that people who aren't her will go to great lengths to avoid it. She's also confused by the concept that nobody gets suspicious of prisoners who mysteriously die a few hours later, but this is less important.
"And I suppose that if somebody has a scroll of Mind Blank to tap cake girl so the Osirians do need to use torture, that does make it too obvious... well, maybe they'd think it was just Project Lawful bullshit?"
"We could send some person who isn't the cake girl and doesn't know anything in with the cake, having gotten a Suggestion immediately before to bring the cake in, poisoned. All they learn from her is that she was inexplicably seized by the urge to bring this cake in, and we learn - once she shows up in Hell - what Osirion knew enough to ask her about."
It is, however, not added to the rumor mill, for fucking once, because these people are professionals specifically in the intelligence services, and furthermore have a good idea of who gets interrogated and possibly executed if there's a new rumor about there being exactly 12 girls in Project Lawful.
"We could go to the opposite extreme and try to make Project Lawful or cake girl look significantly more impressive than the reality - you'd know better than I would if that's realistically possible. Seventh-circle wizard walks in looking like the real cake girl, with Mind Blank and Dimensional Anchoring and a few other things up, serves them some cake, chats with them, ignores anything they try to do to her, leaves."
"Are we okay with them knowing about the weird constraint that prevents us from arresting them?" somebody asks Pilar. "Because if we're not, we should make it look like cake girl is not with Chelish services, and if we are, she should very clearly have the ability to turn them over to Security but not do it."
Eight hours after the Queen of Cheliax took her, Carissa Sevar gets a teleport to the fortress which is the new home of Project Lawful and goes to the temple to check in. The plan is for her to return to Keltham while still a little fragile - it's good for him to know what that looks like, and less costly than keeping her away from him for what might be the entire next day - but she really really wants a situation report first, so she can stop feeling like nothing is quite entirely real, and so she can get a precious rundown on what Keltham thought about in the Grand High Priestess's hearing.
She just spent several hours napping, but she still looks fairly exhausted, and something a little deeper than 'exhausted'. She is carrying a dagger, because in hindsight she really should have one, and dressed like the heir to a county.
"How's my Keltham."
'My Keltham' what, what did the Queen do to her? Brainwash her into Keltham's sex slave or mistress or Abyss-knows-what so long as she had an extra three minutes?
"Usual condition," Maillol replies.
Aspexia only has limited Detect Thoughts per day that use her caster level; she hasn't been constantly reading Keltham the way the Queen can. No Keltham behaviors merited emergency checks. Occasional spaced spot-checks didn't turn up much of interest, besides an advance read on everything obvious Keltham thought to try with metalworking.
If Carissa is trying to scan the full transcripts, she'll see that Keltham is thinking he should maybe try dating Meritxell next rather than any of the Complicated Girls, but isn't quite sure that his brain will actually do that if he's no longer aromantic; also the earliest morning transcript shows Keltham repeatedly reminding himself that Carissa will be all right and that he will not receive any new info about this until later.
"- I can work with that. My plan is to go find him and probably spend the afternoon with him, then authorize lies for Ione, Asmodia and Pilar; I want a Telepathic Bond with you, ideally tomorrow, so we can coordinate even when I'm occupied. Also, I am fourth circle now and would like the chance to copy some spells off Security."
You know what's really, really, really fucking annoying in Cheliax? People who bear up much better than you under torture. Also wizards in general.
"Copying spells will be arranged, Telepathic Bond arranged, I have noted your intended whereabouts. I will not move ahead on returning our extra students until you tell me you're ready for project responsibility handoff, and either that looks accurate to me or I'm overruled by High Priestess Subirachs about your readiness to return to duty... please confirm that's acceptable." It is not actually easy to remember that this is now his boss.
No shit. "Acknowledged, and that's High Priestess Jacint Subirachs, seventh-circle," Maillol says, just in case somebody didn't actually mention that part to her. He goes to a map temporarily pinned to a wall until everybody learns the fortress, and points out where they are, and the paths to Carissa's new supervisor, to her bedroom, and to Keltham's bedroom. "I suggest that I have somebody else notify Keltham you're waiting for him in his bedroom or yours; he's presently in the library-study hall."
Keltham will stride about as fast as he can without running as soon as anybody tells him.
He'll slow down before he gets to his bedroom; he's not to suddenly burst in, looking out of breath.
It has been impressed on Keltham with a few smiling but rather stern words from Aspexia Rugatonn that it is his place now to hug Carissa, not pester her about anything she doesn't seem to want to talk about, and in particular not to demand lots of reassurances about how fine she is or ask for lots of details on how she isn't, until she seems to be fully her previous self. Yes, even if Carissa says otherwise and that he should do what he wants and pester her, Keltham is allowed to ignore her on this particular occasion though after that he should go back to believing her again. No Aspexia is not going to explain what axioms derive those conclusions, she's busy, ask Carissa a day or two later.
Sharp kitchen knives are in fact one of the most convenient ways to hurt yourself or somebody else, if you want to hurt somebody including yourself, and you are not in a good mental state to figure out any more optimal ways of causing damage. 'Stabbed with a kitchen knife' is very much an archetypal Worst-In-Category Thing such that it Actually Happened To One Person You Know Though Not Yourself Personally.
- she sets it down, gently, and stands up.
"Keltham," she says back, and then shakes her head. "I'm okay. ...I should qualify that. I feel okay. I feel really good. I don't feel normal, and, uh, Abrogail and the site manager both told me very sternly that I was not okay and possess no common sense, so I guess, I shouldn't say I'm okay with so much counterevidence. But I feel okay."
He does smile at that; it's what somebody should sound like if they had a Huge Thing happen to them which was not actually catastrophic; and it totally upset lots of their internal equilibria, but didn't trash them so hard that it trashed all the meta-level processes, so they can still consider things like what other people told them. "Snuggles are available for those who seek them," Keltham says, and doesn't ask her at all about how her day went.
"That's fine," Keltham murmurs near her ear. He's surprised, hearing those words from his mouth, and then more surprised when he realizes that he actually meant them and doesn't need to say 'wrongthought' and back up. "I just need to know you're alive and will be okay, I don't need to know why that's so." Want to, sure, need to, no.
"I'm glad that you're glad."
"If you don't want it to happen again for a little while, we don't need to worry about any of that for a little while."
"Or I can go write it down somewhere to revisit in two weeks, if you're worried I'll otherwise forget about it completely, and your brain will otherwise keep nagging you to make sure it knows the issue won't get dropped."
That would explain some things about Golarion.
...he doesn't know how he knows this, but he knows he must not say that out loud, right now.
Okay, search complete, it's because Carissa doesn't need to go correct whatever he misunderstood about Golarion right now. Maybe that's not all of what he knew, but it's a large-enough chunk to make sense.
"The first layer of advice out of dath ilan," Keltham murmurs, "would be that it doesn't matter whether you call it 'love' or not, it only matters what it is. If you know what you're feeling and the question is just whether to call that 'love', there isn't really a question there at all, because you already know everything that the answer could have told you."
"The second layer. Go down to the details that are smaller than the word, the things you saw that made you want to use the word, the perceptions that came before you tried to describe it to anyone else. Describe those perceptions. It will take much longer than using a word, but you'll have less of a problem of the same mouth-sound meaning different things to different people."
That feels like - mental work. Of the kind she's maybe been told not to do. And half of what she's performing here for Keltham is that she is competent enough her preferences can be trusted, so.
"Mmmmm. I think I don't wanna try that right now. Maybe in the morning. Unless it's an order."
"It is not an order. And that's fine. I wasn't trying to give you a problem to solve, I was - being Keltham at you, being dath ilan at you, in case that was something that helped. And so you'd know that whatever internal puzzles you have, there'll be a way to solve them, later, they won't just stick around being unanswerable. In the rest of Golarion, maybe, but not in my bedroom."
"Well, I do need to be temporarily not-in-the-bed but it will be only temporary."
Keltham rises up, reshirts himself, opens door, calls for Security, please run a message to High Priestess Subasomething from Keltham, Carissa Sevar who just got back from her tryst with the Queen wants to talk to somebody about whether she's okay for sex, consider this to be Keltham asking for the favor of her coming all the way down to his bedroom to talk to Carissa without Carissa having to walk around excessively moving and thinking.
Carissa should feel incredibly embarrassed about that and very worried about the first impression she is leaving her new advisor in her descent into darkness but instead of this, she doesn't.
"You're very good.
- you know what you should do, if you don't mind, is, you should come up with a description of what's different between fragile Carissa and normal Carissa, in case mine isn't very satisfactory once I am recovered and try to come up with one."
"No! If you want to talk to me you can talk to me! Just, I said that, and then I thought, I think normally I wouldn't say that, and then I decided not to try to notice all the differences. But you could, if you wanted. I think the point of all this is that you get to figure out exactly how you like your Carissa and what to do to her to get that."
"I'll go take some notes, then." In Baseline.
Keltham gets the scrapbook he's been using and brings it into bed.
Note 1: Carissa seems a whole lot more capable of being happy, somehow, hopefully this is something that doesn't wear off completely or takes a while to do so.
Note 2: Fragile Carissa knows that she is fragile and not constantly proclaiming her invincibility, which wouldn't be a good look on her all the time, but it is nice to know that she has an internal sensor for it and yes fine it's cute Keltham will write that.
Note 3: She's like a tiny cute Pet Animal of some kind, which you wouldn't want to take care of always, but might want to take care of on correspondingly rare occasions like this one.
"Yeah, that makes sense and sounds right." It's not what Abrogail did, at all, but then Abrogail was trying to build Carissa a new way on purpose; Keltham doesn't know what he's doing and might build her a worse way accidentally, and is being appropriately cautious, given that.
Maybe they can kiss some more until the priest gets here.
Answer answer.
Keltham is trying to ignore the very strong eroLARP character warning signals he is getting from how hot this priestess is, and that would be easier if Carissa hadn't just leveled from sex.
Yes, Carissa is over there in the bed. You can tell which object Keltham is pointing to, it's the adorable one.
- okay, well, she'll take that. Flop.
"I have been advised that I am not able to judge my readiness for duty right now. By several people. I want to encourage Keltham to have sex with me and I want to check whether that would be a bad idea. Or if there's some other reason to tell him it's a bad idea, I guess."
Carissa Sevar is, to an experienced eye, even more fragile than she looks to Keltham. To an Asmodean eye it would be contemptible, if you didn't know that this is what she is like only a few hours after finishing up a date with Abrogail Thrune that took her to fourth circle.
In fact, the Queen's brief said that the part that put Carissa up to fourth circle was just the foreplay, and Carissa's alignment aura is now noticeably slightly stronger than when that foreplay completed. And here she is using words and everything!
So, her readiness for sexual operations? To Jacint's eye, Carissa is being very honest, very vulnerable, looks very relaxed and happy, obviously has no reserves left to deal with anything going even slightly wrong, and is unlikely to be able to run much in the way of deceptions on Keltham. Jacint could probably break Carissa with a few words, right now, or simply by ceasing to guard her own words much... if Jacint felt like simultaneously pissing off Abrogail Thrune for ruining her latest masterpiece while it was recovering into its new shape, and also pissing off Aspexia Rugatonn, and also pissing off Asmodeus.
If Carissa were at all considering having normal sex with a normal person, the answer would clearly be no.
And then Carissa would need to be given something else to occupy herself, to prevent her from becoming bored and then trying to put herself back together faster or in interesting new ways.
"I estimate it will probably be safe for you with Keltham," Jacint says, "and safe for him spiritually, if I instruct him to back off or stop if you seem to be in increasing distress, and make it clear that he is to consider that advice from myself that he should indeed follow, rather than being a request from you that he is to refer back to only his own desires. You will not be able to deceive him about much, if anything, but he has already been instructed not to pester you with questions and to back off there as well."
"Yes, but back off if Carissa seems to be in increasing distress. That's not a request from Carissa that you should refer back to your own will and wants, that's advice from me. Which you should ignore only if you have decided to break your possession. For which this would also be not a good time if you wanted that to have pleasing results later."
That'll get him revved in short order. He didn't know that level of Sexy Adorable was even possible. Everything about Carissa is brighter, somehow, than she seems usually was before, rather, hopefully.
Very small amount of pain to see what happens, at some point when he feels like that?
...oh. He didn't know he needed that, so much, he hopes that there's still some way to get this reaction tomorrow.
He'll try letting himself go a little, now, to do those things he feels like doing, himself, and see what comes of that.
He will not be unwatchful for distress and increasing distress.
Nope. She's okay. She wouldn't be okay, if he did any of a hundred normal things you do to a girl you're fucking and don't really care about, but he doesn't do any of those, because -
- he doesn't feel like parsing out what love is precisely, but he feels something for her he's never felt for anyone before -
- and he doesn't even know to think she's pathetic, just to think she's his.
When they're done she does start crying, for completely mysterious reasons that don't correspond to her mood at all.
Recognizable substantial-base-rate gendertrope. Keltham is fine with it. He will pet her hair, unconscious of any particular new associations this might have for her; his hands, at least, don't feel much like Abrogail's.
(So, uh, Worldwound problem? It's not necessary to have solved right now, not at all, Keltham learned that lesson rather early on; but you have to hand back your dath ilani boyfriend card if you don't at least wonder about any current outstanding Problems.)
He's very not like Abrogail. If she succeeds in making him into Abrogail, then -
- well, then she'll have risen high in the esteem of Asmodeus, who can break and remake her on a scale Abrogail can only dream of, so. Nothing to do but keep winning.
(Worldwound problem has not mysteriously vanished. Maybe if Abrogail had been focusing on that.)
"Yeah. So, team shows up, gets a room, wards the room, baby's born, all of that goes totally smoothly. Four minutes after the baby's born, there's a knock on the door, and a Chelish wizard woman carrying a cake waltzes in and says, "congratulations!" Dimension Anchored, Mind Blanked, the team had as a precaution barely been briefed and correctly decided the thing to do was to get the fuck out as fast as possible, only she counterspells the Teleport and says, 'no! stay! celebrate!'"
"Very large bounty from a reputable broker for an immediate trip to Cheliax, estimated 95% likely to be uneventful. Book a room, lock and ward the room, wait for a Sending about a newborn baby, wait two hours more, leave. If, and only if, a girl inexplicably appears in the room offering congratulations and cake, Plane Shift out instead of Teleporting, with the girl, to a demiplane the broker handed out the key for.
By far the primary thing they learned is that we know about cake girl. We didn't lose physical custody of the Plane Shift key, and it's a temporary demiplane anyway."
"...because Cheliax is taking a new, cake-based angle on conquest. Or maybe because it was all done with scrolls and items and they were bluffing. Or maybe because Project Lawful powers can't be used against us. Or maybe because - look, do you realize how many things I now give substantial credence -"
"Queen Abrogail Thrune is one of the Project Lawful girls. Queen Abrogail Thrune is negotiating with Project Lawful for use of their girls. Everyone in the Chelish hierarchy waits on Carissa Sevar. Carissa Sevar won favor in the court by inventing a magic weapon that stole all Nidal's diamonds. Asmodeus is working with Irori. Asmodeus is working with Iomedae. Asmodeus is working with Cayden Cailean. Project Lawful turns you into a girl. Project Lawful makes you sexually attractive to Asmodeus's specific sensibilities and he prefers women."
Paladins can't experience fear.
Otherwise it'd be much harder to operate in Cheliax.
It is, to be clear, generally not worth it. Paladins can't experience fear, but they can experience eternal torture, and Cheliax delights in sending them on to it; there are places where more good can be done at a lower cost. But in the end, Cheliax is going to need to be overthrown, and you have to be in Cheliax to see the fractures when they start and can be encouraged in spreading. Plus, sometimes something really unexpected happens and you need to have people who can act quickly.
Andreu Bassols (not his birth name) has been living in Egorian for two years, having moved from a small farming village when his parents died and it didn't seem worth keeping up the farm alone. He loads and unloads river barges; he's a strong man, built for hard labor. He has, beneath the skin on his neck and separately beneath the skin on his thigh, two minor magic items, which conceal an aura that would otherwise radiate from him and betray him. Either would be sufficient, but it's a new experimental type of magic item, and either could fail, so it's better to have both.
He reads as having seven intelligence; his thoughts, when read, are slow, and uninteresting. This is the greatest sacrifice, aside from the possible eternity of damnation; the effect could not be manufactured. It had to be induced for real. He can lift it, when he puts his healing to that purpose, but it's risky, so he does it rarely.
He did it this morning; knelt in the cellar he sleeps in, the walls and ceiling too thick for Detect Thoughts, and healed himself, and read an encoded report delivered on a river barge, and broke down the plan into steps he would still, later, understand.
It's afternoon, now, and he is pushing a wheelbarrow of potatoes into the kitchens of the palace in Egorian.
Someone hands him a cookie. "You did really well," the woman says gently. "You worked really hard. You deserve a cookie. But now you need to get out of Cheliax. It's okay, someone else will handle things from here."
why is her curse insisting that she act like this, fucking Abyss aaaaaahhhhhh
"One of the deadliest Project Lawful girls, Paxti, is making a sweep of the palace. The girls you've heard of are the ones where not everyone who saw them is dead. You would not have been able to evade Paxti like that and you still can't evade her now. You don't have that long, go."
"Something like a hundred and fifty things of which at most thirty can be true. Strong guesses: The archduke's villa that Nidal attacked was actually a decoy, one of the girls did in fact take a round trip to Elysium and back, the project is faking a move elsewhere but remains inside the Imperial palace where it's been from the beginning, whatever it is only works to empower women."
"If you're still here in one minute I'm walking away. Milani bullshit or not, I cannot just hang around here next to you waiting for Project Lawful to catch up with you."
"Because Project Lawful is bullshit and the last person I told to just leave Egorian got executed and Maledicted. But not right away. They can see where you've been, maybe, but not follow fast -"
"Look, is this mission one that I can just complete, they can't find me but they can find you."
"Our families know how we'll die." He reaches the wheelbarrow, pulls out a canteen, hands it to her. "Spread it on the walls in a well-trafficked area, thin enough it'll dry fast, it's detectable while it's drying. I intended to do the kitchens, but if you have the run of the place, it should avoid detection anywhere that doesn't have anti-scrying wards. You won't know if it worked, but we will. I am grateful. Realize your aims."
And off he goes.
Pilar hands the canteen in for analysis. Whoever's in charge of putting out this kind of fake story, the canteen was taken off the body of an agent of Milani who looked like Pilar currently looks. The Milani agent was surprised trying to use the canteen, and got interrogated, executed and Maled -
- was hunted by Paxti, but managed to suicide before being Maledicted.
Is her curse ever going to stop whining about every little thing.
It always counts, for everyone everywhere. Paladins are, first and foremost, people, even if a lot of paladins forget that themselves.
Pilar knows this already and doesn't want her curse reminding her of it and that is why Pilar is angry and trying to go out of her way to be mean.
...actually, Pilar just had a really fucking disturbing thought, and she's ashamed of herself as an Asmodean for not thinking of it a lot earlier.
Her curse wouldn't, possibly, maybe, have just humorously tricked her into saving a paladin who was actually going to get caught and Maledicted.
Would it?
From this it would then follow, for example, that if this paladin had hypothetically been due to get caught and maledicted, he would have first succeeded in his mission, and would have gone to Hell never saying what he'd done, leaving Chelish Security unaware of it.
If Iomedae wants that exchange to be made, Asmodeus presumably wants it not to be made. And therefore in a case like that, hypothetically speaking, Pilar would have well served her Lord.
Chaotic Good and Lawful Evil may find paladins annoying for very different reasons, but they can sure agree that paladins are annoying.
The Worldwound project shows that Lawful Evil and Chaotic Good have no trouble teaming up to fight Chaotic Evil. Why wouldn't it be the same for teaming up to fight Lawful Good?
If Pilar's curse isn't just messing with her about this, how would her curse feel about rounding up every single Lastwall spy targeting the Imperial palace?
...And sending them home unharmed to their families where cute sons and daughters no doubt await them, wondering whether their missing parent will ever come home to them or if they'll hear about their Maledictions instead. They will be so relieved and happy to know that their parents' nightmarishly dangerous missions are over.
Her curse should be very cheerful to go along with this, right?
Oh, well, that might cause the Chelish government to go around committing more nefarious evil deeds than they would have otherwise, both because Lastwall wouldn't stop them and because Cheliax would know Lastwall couldn't stop them so they'd try even more nefarious plots. No true Chaotic Good curse could approve such a thing!
...Pilar's curse could, of course, be swayed about this, if it happened to be true that rounding up all the Lastwall spies would make something else happen so that the whole thing wouldn't then be a net loss for Chaotic Good.
Would anyone like to make Pilar's curse an offer?
"Eyeballing you, you might be ready for on-call authorizations on lies but you're not ready to accept project handoff. I guess that's good enough if we want to bring the others back tonight. Pilar may arrive a little later, she's on loan to Crown Security for urgent undisclosed reasons, and we may need some lie ready to cover that." Actually Maillol knows exactly what those reasons are, but Sevar does not get to hear about Project Lawful bullshit of that order until she's more recovered.
Maillol hopes very strongly that Sevar is ready to accept that handoff before dawn tomorrow. It hasn't escaped Maillol's notice that, although today there were no massive project disasters per se, yet, the person who started out as Project Director of Project Lawful was kidnapped and extensively tortured by Abrogail Thrune. Maillol is not sure whether Pharasma's curse is following the title or the acting authority, and in the latter case he wants to give it back to Sevar ASAP.
"More importantly, Sevar, are you sufficiently able to monitor and respond to emergency Keltham events that the Grand High Priestess can leave the site area?"
This will unfortunately free up Aspexia Rugatonn to attend a meeting she is frankly not looking forward to at all, to brainstorm what Cheliax can do that will make Cayden Cailean most happy at minimal expense to Asmodeus.
Aspexia Rugatonn will trouble herself to first stop in at the project office - now in a fake Asmodean temple with no torture chamber, just in case Keltham asks why he is not allowed to visit the admin areas - and take a quick look at Sevar.
Does it look like Aspexia needs to have an angry and probably violent conversation with Abrogail?
Carissa Sevar is talking over lies for Asmodia and Ione with Maillol. She looks - younger, in a weird way, than she did yesterday - not that a Chelish sixteen year old would ever show this much vulnerability on their face, but it'd look less out of place on a sixteen-year-old. She does not look strikingly conflicted or strikingly flinchy. She's very attached to her dagger.
She nods to the Grand High Priestess with a private smile. Probably it will not amuse the Queen to tell the Grand High Priestess how upset Carissa was that she was dead. It's fairly pathetic.
A gesture, and Maillol no longer hears them.
"The Queen has in fact submitted a report on your adventure."
"It is not a priority for you to do anything about this, Sevar, especially not today, but be it known to you. Loyalty to myself and my purpose and my office is acceptable. Attachment to the point that you then blunder into Keltham's room being visibly distressed about a woman you should hardly know, is weakness, not terribly Asmodean, and not something I think we should be inculcating in the new Lawful Evil."
"The Queen suggested that this problem should be fixed by having you torture me to death once per day for a few weeks, and while I believe she had ulterior motives in this suggestion it was not entirely inappropriate as a solution ignoring its costs."
" - that wasn't why, Most High. Keltham wouldn't have assumed any special attachment to you for me to to be distressed at your true death, especially as he knows it's what I fear most for myself. It is part of what he's allowed to know, that we spoke when you came to lay the first Forbiddance - though at the time I only told him I'd talked to a very important person - but I think if I stumbled in on him broken up about the true death of someone I'd only once been in the room with, he'd consider that reasonable, and decide that he would have to fix it for me. It seemed like the best possible grounds on which to ignore his stated wish that no one interrupt him while he was thinking, and I was very worried about what would happen if he went on thinking. Keltham is constantly reminding himself that death in Golarion isn't real and isn't costly; he hasn't lost any of his dath ilani convictions about the horror of true death." And I happen to share them.
"Or - I mean, he does have some kind of weird theory based on his own true death not being such, but then he'd have started trying to convince me of that. I promise, I'd have done the same thing if I'd learned any other mildly notable figure I'd previously mentioned meeting had been terrifyingly destroyed at the front; it was just the most convenient way to get in the room."
Aspexia does not, in fact, believe Sevar about this. Oh, she's surely being honest; truthful is another matter.
But she cannot push any further on this point without risking disturbing Abrogail's careful pattern of shatterings and fractures while it heals into a new form.
"Do not wantonly strain yourself even tomorrow," Aspexia warns. "A tryst with Abrogail Thrune is not an ordinary torture session and cannot be treated as such."
And she departs.
Were those the kind of sentences you'd report 'wrongthought' about, if you were a good dath ilani?
Maybe, if it seems wise to explain this to Keltham ever, she'll ask how he would have reacted, if interrupted by a Carissa distressed at the news that the grandmotherly woman who'd smiled at them had been destroyed.
If it was an error it was definitely an error even at the time, though, rather than a justification invented now; this must be the proper version of the complaint that that hated-Security had been ranting about in her ear at the time, which failed to land because she couldn't even understand what he understood her to be doing - and because she'd felt that he had no idea how Keltham worked and should shut up, except they'd controlled Keltham, so he'd reacted as they'd understood him.
But it's some evidence about whether what she just said to the Grand High Priestess was a wrong thought. When accused of having unstrategically let her emotions guide her into stupidly revealing something to Keltham, she'd been purely and entirely confused, because the interaction she understood herself to be having was perfectly accurate to new Cheliax; if there was an error it was in her understanding.
Would Keltham, primed to greater suspicion by a warning from Abadar, see suspicion even in something genuinely unsurprising, like Carissa being sad about the death of an important figure in her religion who she'd only spoken to at length once? It's objectively not suspicious, in new Cheliax, but would he have found it so? Maybe; it's hard to be suspicious only of the exactly correct things. And if Keltham is going to be suspicious of everything then maybe it's not enough to do things you'd do in new Cheliax, maybe you'd have to only do things that'd parse to him as having absolutely no suspicious traits - except then that's obviously manipulated -
To Maillol, Carissa appears to be staring off into the middle distance frowning for a long time after the Grand High Priestess departs.
"Is that the degree of professionalism with which I served you? .... but you're probably right.
All right. Ione may lie about how big a problem it would generally be for someone to be chosen of Nethys, and about how rare oracles are, because if she's claiming she was one before she joined the project they can't be that weird without Keltham concluding tropes are afoot. We get into a mess if we try to lie about how the entire death and sorting system works, so Asmodia should tell the truth that she sold her soul - but voluntarily, on her graduation and before joining the project, because she's really good at math and wanted to secure an academic role in Hell if she got herself gobbled up right away at the Worldwound. Asmodia is authorized to lie about literally everything about Hell that's not also true of Axis; she might not know what that is, but you can tell her.
Lie about Pilar is that a bunch of researchers are fascinated by whatever is going on with her and have begged her to stay a little bit. Since we're not going to be able to pretend she's not incredibly weird."
Not especially knownst to Ayat Himinshi, who has probably never thought about it in that way, and sort of not very explicitly knownst to Taldor...
Essentially everything Himinshi sends on ends up in Lastwall eventually. Lastwall has very good spying operations on other countries' spying operations on Cheliax. It's so much less expensive, as they count costs, than sending people directly into Cheliax.
A well-dressed and painfully polite Imperial palace functionary apologizes for the suddenness of this interruption, but they wish to invite Ayat Himinshi to attend on a gathering in the Imperial palace. The reasons cannot be explained here; this location is not secure. He has the Imperial palace's reassurance that he will not be harmed, and that, regardless of how things may seem, there is not any reason for him to worry.
Well, Amela apparently thinks, that sounds interesting. Can't turn down an opportunity like that.
To Abrogail, who is extremely hard to bluff, it's obvious that her secret thoughts are more worried than that. But not panicked; she can pass a Truth Spell, she can pass Detect Thoughts, she has a resurrection on tap if she gets executed, she mostly doesn't have nervous sensation in her body because she's not actually into all the favored Chelish kinds of sex....
...Abrogail should have thought ahead sixty seconds into the future and realized how much she would be Tempted to Break the Rules during this operation.
But she is not entirely oblivious to how these things work among gods, and apparently they need to pretend to be gods in a way that the actual divine curse on the other end can something something predictable something something Aspexia could probably go on about this literally forever if that was what she chose to do.
Come along then, Amela, if you're lucky you might even get to see the Queen at some point tonight. Did you know she sometimes attends those kinds of parties?
Does she really. That sounds fascinating.
Amela's surface thoughts are that she would be love to hit on the Queen of Cheliax but isn't sure even she has the nerve.
Amela's less-surface thoughts are that she can sell that conversation in Lastwall for a fiefdom in Heaven, except that she's actually heard fiefdoms in Heaven are really boring because everyone just politely ignores your cruelest orders.
They proceed through grand hallways, to... the entrance antechamber of a grand ballroom? Well, okay.
Four people are already waiting there, from various walks of life, having apparently been warned to momentary silence, it's not time to talk among themselves yet. A moment later, another two people arrive.
Everyone's here, and it's time to go in and...
"CONGRATULATIONS!" shouts (disguised) Pilar Pineda, as confetti rains down from nowhere. "YOU GET TO GO HOME NOW!"
People wearing brightly colored hats clap and cheer, the band starts up playing, the waiters immediately approach the honored guests with drinks and snacks, and the surprise party enters full swing! There's giant banners on the wall reading "THANK YOU FOR SPYING ON US", and "DON'T WORRY" and "IT'S NOT A PROBLEM".
The shellshocked spies stand there, staring. One of them has started crying; several are protesting.
Amela waltzes over to ask the Queen of Cheliax for a dance. She's not not terrified, but no one but the Queen will be able to tell, and anyway this is probably a dream or poison-induced hallucination or something anyway.
"You can't pay well enough, your Majesty. I don't really like being tortured. Lastwall pays in a literal eternity of not getting tortured at all in a fancy penthouse in Axis. They're tedious, whiny, a waste of space, everyone I like is here, I'm going to have to adopt kids from the Boneyard and raise them Chelish just so I can have anyone worth playing with, but do you know who'll have power over me? No one."
"Well, that's fair."
"I would so much wish to tryst with you before you go, but anything that wouldn't be incredibly unsatisfying for me would break hospitality. Would Lastwall enjoy hearing a bedroom story or two about their paladins? From when I was a teenager and recently ascended, paladins got boring after a few years."
Oh my! It looks like that person over there doesn't think his country will accept him back, now that his cover has been blown so embarrassingly, and the Chelish Security talking to him is having a hard time being appropriately sympathetic.
Pilar needs to go over and make it clear that when Cheliax sends him home, it doesn't have to be his old house that he goes to, if that place isn't home anymore.
Pilar would like someone to hurt her enough to require a Regenerate spell afterwards. Other uses of her appreciated but optional. And maybe a Nap Stack so she doesn't sleep too far in, after staying up that late.
This might serve Lord Asmodeus if it causes her to be in better condition for her real work tomorrow, after literally the most stressful day of her entire life, or it might be just -
High Priestess Jacint Subirachs shall be waiting for you as soon as you get to your proper dwellings, child. Lord Asmodeus does not desire that his servants never receive what they might possibly see as rewards. The Grand High Priestess's robes would not be so fine and expensive, if that was how Asmodeanism worked. It is simply that such are arbitrary or useful gifts from above, and never earned or deserved from below.
Cayden Cailean shows Her a flash of memory; it is legible that this flash is true as this facet of Cayden remembers it.
: Nethys pings Cayden Cailean.
: Cayden Cailean responds; connection established.
: Nethys offers to pay the energy cost though not the intervention cost of bestowing four oracle levels on a Chelish girl who's otherwise about to sell her soul, and also, to help out with some of the fine programming on the oracle's curse that will result.
: Cayden Cailean says WHAT.
: Nethys renders legible that this fragment of Nethys believes this intervention will be, on net, at least this [exact quantity censored] beneficial to Cayden's interests, after taking into account the intervention-payment. Though Cayden has hardly used any of His intervention budget over the last hundred years, anyways.
: Cayden Cailean says that's not what Cayden Cailean was asking. Also how does any Chelish oracle of Cayden Cailean end up that beneficial to His interests. What's this Chelish mortal going to do, throw huge parties that get everyone in Cheliax too drunk to be evil?
: Nethys could explain how, but then Cayden would have to promise not to explain any of that information to any other gods. Like Iomedae, for example.
(Fragment ends.)
Has Iomedae noticed the part where Cayden Cailean is now fairly exhausted from, among other things, fighting Zon-Kuthon. Who coincidentally got sealed recently, into a vault of which Iomedae holds the key. In an incident where Cayden Cailean's Nethys-targeted oracle was, at the very least, on-site.
Sure, one of the circumstances under which She'd pay Him back is if it turns out His oracle had something to do with Zon-Kuthon getting locked away, and that this is worth the costs of whatever the fuck the oracle is successfully doing to damage the interests of Good in Cheliax.
Iomedae does not think Nethys is serving Good, here, and Iomedae does not think Cayden Cailean is very smart.
Perhaps Nethys does not think Iomedae is very well-informed.
And evidently Nethys doesn't think that for Iomedae to be better-informed would well serve whatever Nethys is currently doing, which on net has been promised to be beneficial to the interests of Cayden Cailean, whose aforesaid interests do, in fact, include Good.
Perhaps Cayden Cailean's notion of Good is not always the same concept of Good as Iomedae's. But that concept does, in fact, take into account matters like starving peasants and children trained to hurt other children and good people Maledicted into a Hell that even the bad people don't deserve. Cayden Cailean in his mortal life may not have thought about it much, but when he thought about it, he would have nodded that, yes, that is probably bad; and that was before He became a god of, among other things, Good.
There is little that Cayden Cailean can usually do about those interests at all efficiently, given His actual domain, and so He usually doesn't like to think about it. But He reminds Iomedae that those much of Her interests are also His. If for once in His existence there's something that can be done about that by empowering a Chelish girl to throw better parties, Cayden Cailean is not going to turn away.
Perhaps in Iomedae's view Zon-Kuthon was an important long-term counterbalance to Asmodeus. In Cayden's view, Nidal was a horror exceeding even that of Cheliax and one that had lasted far longer. The two of Them may both acknowledge the points of the other, there, and yet attach different weights to them. That the net effects of His appointed oracle probably had something to do with the downfall of Nidal may, indeed, mean that Cayden Cailean and Iomedae simply have different views of how much Nethys's intervention has already served Good, because they have different views of what was Good, there.
Iomedae expects that their values differences are real, but small, and still places more weight on the bulk of their disagreements being because Cayden Cailean is a moron (literally: because the actions Cayden Cailean is taking in pursuit of His values are suboptimal due to resource constraints Iomedae is less subject to).
Iomedae observes that, unlike Cayden Cailean, She is a Lawful god, which means, at the core, that legibility is cheaper to Her and that the way She splits Her cognition enables more complex commitments, at some expense in other exploratory abilities in Her architecture because nothing comes free. Iomedae observes that information beneficial to the interests of Cayden Cailean is probably information She would pay for, unless something is very strange. Such as Nethys having figured out how to feed parts of him information that make them convinced of things the whole of Him does not believe, and how to let those parts make themselves legible to other gods, persuasively so.
It could be something that sits in their very real values difference; something that Cayden Cailean is barely in favor of but which involves the total destruction of Iomedae and all Her followers and which therefore She is barely against. (If it were otherwise very good by Cayden's standards She, too, would favor it and work towards it; She doesn't think the values difference is very large.)
Right now, the state of affairs is that Iomedae is being treated adversarially - with Cayden expending resources to reduce her access to resources - in the service of a Nethys plan. This is plainly wasteful. For one example, they could just have Cayden tell Her 'hey, I would have acted as so to reduce Your resource access' and have Iomedae stop using those resources, conserving overall resources for Good, with the benefits thereby split. Maybe, Cayden could just stop that, and try not expending the resources of Good against fellow forces of Good, and get Himself together to think about what shape of commitment from Iomedae would enable that.
It all comes down to trust, doesn't it, now that prophecy has been shattered over even the shortest timescales.
Trust, or rather the lack of it, is the reason why the gods had to fight Zon-Kuthon to get Him to enter the vault - rather than Zon-Kuthon simply calculating that His interests would be better served by going quietly into imprisonment in exchange for a payment, as He did long ago when Abadar bribed Him to go into an exile that should have lasted longer than it did.
Zon-Kuthon in particular, being Void-touched and not something that other gods dare to look at too closely, could not simply have provided Them all with His estimate of how much damage He could do, and go legible around that estimate, and have that be believable. And so They all had to fight it out, for a day, to learn how much damage Zon-Kuthon could really do, and show Zon-Kuthon how much damage They could really do to Him, before in the end, the vault door could be closed on Him.
Of course, Nethys could have told Them all fairly precisely how much damage Zon-Kuthon would actually be able to do, and told Zon-Kuthon the converse.
A pity, then, that so many gods see Nethys as scarcely any more trustworthy than Zon-Kuthon. Especially, of course, those gods who never were human, whom Nethys has more than small reason to dislike.
Cayden Cailean actually thinks Nethys is a pretty cool god, personally. This opinion hasn't really moved downwards since Nethys told Cayden Cailean to put an oracle somewhere and then Zon-Kuthon attacked her location and then Zon-Kuthon got sealed and now Nidal's endless horror is ending at last.
If one is to go around being very logical about such matters, and proving that there's never any point in playing out a conflict, how about if Iomedae updates Her trust in Nethys to match Cayden Cailean's, so that She and Cayden Cailean don't have a persistent disagreement about that?
Or, perhaps, different parties perceiving Nethys as having different incentives in what He reveals, incentives that would themselves shift as information becomes more widely shared instead of private. Among the reasons why Cayden Cailean trusts the information He did receive from Nethys is that Cayden Cailean isn't allowed to show it to Iomedae, meaning that Nethys was not incentivized to distort that information in a way that would persuade Iomedae.
Not that They'd all have this problem if They all knew exactly how Nethys worked; rather than, as is actually the case, it being the other way around.
Iomedae predicts that a lot more people are going to go to Hell because of Cayden's tampering in Cheliax. She intends, for as long as Cayden continues wasting resources on opposing Her, to waste further resources figuring out some specific people this is true of and telling Him about them. Or they could both stop wasting resources! Either way works!
Part of the reason why Cayden Cailean is trusting Nethys is that Nethys has not simply asked Him to take things on faith, but built an agreement that is in part conditioned on watching how things play out. A foolish waste of time if Cayden Cailean knew Nethys as well as Nethys knew Cayden Cailean, but that, of course, is impossible with Nethys.
It was Cayden Cailean's estimate, at the end of all Nethys showed Him, that there was, indeed, no better way to let this play out than to let Iomedae expend some of Her budget on proving to Herself - and anyone else watching - how certain things play out.
And if Iomedae - or certain other gods - were the sort to immediately believe Nethys about what was shown, or to believe Cayden Cailean if He reported being persuaded of a thing by Nethys, why then, Cayden Cailean really wouldn't be able to believe Nethys, given Nethys's incentives. If Nethys's claims had the power to immediately persuade any god without further demonstrations of facts, and not just to partially persuade Cayden Cailean, well then, maybe Nethys would just say whatever was to His own advantage, after all.
(Thought not sent to Iomedae.)
Nethys could, but would Nethys do that, is the question.
Nethys once was human, and never really had the chance to pull all of Himself together and properly finish turning into a god. Nethys, when he was human, probably had friends, and probably ever went out drinking with them of a night. Maybe one of those friends was like Cayden Cailean, maybe not, only Nethys knows now, and given the incentives it doesn't do much good to ask. It's still a probabilistic factor that slightly affects how much Cayden Cailean thinks Nethys is likely to present Him with a godly, inhuman, calculated betrayal.
There's an old saying that Lawful Evil has alliances, Chaotic Good has friendships, Lawful Good has both, and the Abyss has neither.
With prophecy shattered, and gods who can't fully see one another, maybe in the end it all comes down to this:
That Iomedae is not someone who could ever have been friends with Nethys, as mortal or god.
...or more likely not. Even Cayden Cailean knows that, whether He likes it or not. He is a god now, and unavoidably knows the quantitative degree to which camaraderie matters. They are all gods here, and if this is how it turns out for them in this world, it would probably have turned out much the same in a world where Nethys and Iomedae had been friends. All the logic would have been the same.
Mostly, Jacint is not meant to be in charge of anything here except Carissa Sevar. But yes, she's also, temporarily, the commanding officer overnight, if one is required, while Maillol and Sevar wait for their Rings of Sustenance to start working.
How does Carissa Sevar look this morning, to Jacint's very experienced eye?
She hasn't seen Carissa before the date with Abrogail, so it's impossible to judge exactly what's normal for her, but she's not obviously and conspicuously damaged, just a bit slow and hesitant and probably much easier than usual to scare or disconcert, and also coming down from a minor panic attack about the experience of waking up, which hasn't been a good one lately.
"A day matters little to a project and much to a recently broken slave putting herself back together... is what I would usually say. Now that I've been acquainted with the true records of Project Lawful I am amazed at how much seems to happen in a day. It is like some god is meddling with you, not so much to any visible purpose, but simply causing everything to happen as fast as possible."
"Under ordinary circumstances I would advise you to leave Maillol as executive through the day, unless you have urgent project directives to issue, but it would not terribly surprise me if you did."
"Do you want a summary update on yesterday's and last night's news, before you decide? There are no disasters in it."
"Yesterday and last night, Pilar Pineda rooted out from Egorian a number of Lastwall's spies, including indirect ones whose countries were themselves being spied on by Lastwall. Apparently Pilar is able to convince herself that spying on us is dangerous unpleasant work, and that somebody can justly be congratulated on it being over and going home unharmed, and that this warrants a surprise party for them."
"Plausibly Pilar may have gotten all of the spies providing Lastwall with direct or indirect access to our operations. For so long as it appears so, the Queen has signed a compact requiring her not to engage in any unusually nefarious plots, for certain terms and definitions thereof. Pilar's curse insisted."
"This has raised the profile of Project Lawful even further, but in a way that, it is hoped, will almost entirely misdirect attention away from this fortress and Keltham. The highest-profile such event, a grand party in the main palace ballroom, had Pilar disguised as Meritxell. On current plans, impersonators for Pilar, Meritxell, yourself, and occasional others, will continue to appear at the Imperial palace, in order to make it appear that the dreaded Project Lawful girls continue to operate from there, and Pilar will conduct weekly sweeps."
"We mortals are almost certainly being maneuvered like the little toy dolls we are, to the gods. The question is whether Asmodeus is being outmaneuvered and I would normally bet on our Lord to take Cayden Cailean in a battle of wits. Even so - we should remain alert for signs that such is not the case."
"Only you can guess whether it can wait, Chosen, with those thoughts unspoken. I would say that it only should wait, if it also can, and also if to think or speak of these thoughts places strains upon parts of yourself. You look less fragile this morning than last night."
"...I'll explain it until that starts to seem unpleasant, then. The project cannot endure in its current form forever. Eventually Keltham will find us out. He is too powerful for us to immerse him in a lie forever. It seems damaging to the project, for it either to be doomed to failure or to define success so narrowly as to be satisfied if he leaves in four months furious with us all. One backup plan is for me to go with him; I do want to position myself for that insofar as I can.
The other is to corrupt him.
That feels important. Instead of one project, with a time limit we don't know, we have two projects moving in parallel - the project in which Keltham comes to understand Golarion, and the project in which he comes to be corrupted by it. We've just got to make sure the corruption stays out in front - that he never learns anything too Evil for where he's at at that moment. Already he can learn things he couldn't have the first day, I think."
"I've looked over some transcripts of your interactions with Keltham, and join my opinion to that of an experienced honeypot specializing in Lawful Good targets, and also that of our Queen, that we all have absolutely no idea why anything you are doing is working as well as it does. If you think there's a chance we can stay ahead of Keltham, there is literally nobody on Golarion positioned to contradict you."
It's funny, because four days ago Carissa absolutely knew that she had quite possibly become Keltham's property by catching his attention, but somewhere in the ensuing days of trying to convince Keltham that she could be if he wants, she let that slip out of salience, and now it sends a shiver down her spine. She doesn't hide that; the whole point of being here is correction. "I'm going to try to convince him that you can actually acquire the overwhelming majority of girls as your possession and have this be good for them, if you play it right and have the power to have it be real. Meritxell, ideally, shouldn't have to do anything more than prove me right."
"I want her to have a lovely time for Keltham, even if he's being as cruel as he knows how to be, ideally moreso if he's being as cruel as he knows how to be. Or to learn to fake it but I don't know if we have time for that. If you can train that, then I'll focus on convincing Keltham to try it. - update me, if it's going slowly, and I should slow him down correspondingly."
"There's a small sad saying among slavers, you can't burn clay to iron whatever the heat. If Meritxell has no innate nature turned to masochism and submission... one might in a week train her to fool a nonexpert, and of course if her user doesn't really care then simple fakery will oft be enough. To train Meritxell to where she fools Keltham's unknown arts of sexual perception? I think, over any reasonable amount of time, that simply requires her to start with a convenient amount of potential."
"Or, I suppose, it requires that we are willing to spend a very large amount of gold on turning her into a book and rewriting her. But we'll be lucky if Absalom has one such scroll for sale at any price, and never mind two of them."
"It may also be that Meritxell is there or nearly there, and that I am hardly needed. Do you wish me to assess Meritxell for current state and quick trainability in what it is that you wish, and then perhaps the others?"
It wouldn't have occurred to Carissa that it worked like that, rather than some people just having very high standards for who they could actually enjoy giving themselves to, but she isn't the expert, here. "Yes, please. You're aware of my directive to clear all serious punishments with me?"
"I am, though if you mean that to also apply to slave retraining, that further extends my timescales and restricts what I can do at all."
"I am reminded of a thought: if you have not already selected that poor unlucky girl," these words not being spoken in a tone of genuine sympathy, "who is to join you and Pilar in continued punishment, I recommend carrying out the random selection where all can see it, and know that the selected girl is, indeed, unlucky and not disfavored."
"Emergency slave retraining is authorized, whatever it requires; if it makes Meritxell worse at following along in class, I've already discussed with Asmodia feeding all her clever insights to Meritxell so Meritxell can keep being impressive. ....let's gather the girls to introduce you, explain all this, and do the draw. ...if you think I'm competent for that. I think so."
"I agree. Though the girls are currently in Security processes for training their palace impersonators, and that may have a few more minutes to run."
"Since we took them all aside individually for that, before they had a chance to prepare spells this morning, I expect more than half of them think they're to be killed, as often occurs after one is required to train one's impersonator. I made a deputy's guess that this decision was not worth waking you for; letting someone be afraid despite your promises of safety, and then showing them that their master spoke truly and will be merciful, is just conventionally good practice when that would occur in the ordinary course of events."
Paxti isn't staring wide-eyed, because Cheliax. But anybody whose Sense Motive surpasses Paxti's Bluff, which includes everyone else in this room, will be able to tell that surprise is the particular emotion she's holding back.
"I request permission to repeat and rephrase that to make sure I understood it correctly," Paxti says. (Keltham has made them do that a couple of times.) She waits for the nod, and then continues. "My impersonator needs to play the role of me, if after I'd been pulled from Ostenso wizard academy, I'd been transformed into an incredibly deadly Chelish agent, who previously people haven't heard about, because anybody who's seen her is dead."
"Correct."
"In my first public appearance, 'I' am going to be executing a noble traitor we uncovered a few weeks ago, who's going to cooperatively lose to 'me' in a way that looks like his sorcery just doesn't work against me for unknown reasons - I'd guess if he doesn't play along he gets to die a lot more painfully than that?"
"Correct on the first part and the second part is none of your concern."
"Is it permitted to ask whether Pilar Pineda was somehow involved in selecting me as the particular person who got this role?"
"Does that matter to how your impersonator should act?"
"No."
"Then you don't need to know."
Maybe Paxti is wrong about this, but she's guessing that if Pilar wasn't involved here, they'd have just told her 'you don't need to know' and not asked if it was relevant.
Friendship is un-Asmodean. Therefore, Pilar did not do this to be friendly. Pilar obviously expects to be repaid.
Friendship is un-Asmodean. Pilar did not do this because she is anyone's friend. Pilar expects to be repaid.
Friendship is un-Asmodean. Pilar is not the best person in the entire world. Pilar has some really huge favor in mind.
"Are you done with that stupid smile?"
"I would be smiling like that if I was actually doing this, and I'm showing it so the impersonator can get it down right."
"If you're joking -"
"I am not. Although - where is 'Paxti' on the spectrum of her superiors being permissive? Spoiled duke's daughter vs. being kept very firmly in line, punished for the slightest trace of unprofessionalism? That matters a lot for how I'd act in her situation."
There's some glances among the Security, before, with almost visible reluctance, they inform Paxti that Project Lawful girls do have something of a reputation for being given some amount of disciplinary leeway.
"And this is meant to fool, ideally, people who know me from Ostenso wizard academy, or relatives?"
The impersonator isn't looking particularly happy about this, which really says something when you have that many ranks in Bluff.
"It's meant to be as accurate as possible," confirms Security.
"Understood. In that situation, I think I'd probably start by making the most dramatic entrance I could manage, maybe something with a lot of fire if I could pull that off -"
“As I see it,” Carissa tells her assembled project girls, “the success or failure of every day is measured in the following terms: how many things, even tiny things, did Keltham learn that aren’t true of Taldor, and how much did Keltham discover in himself that Axis can’t offer him. We lose if he ever learns something he isn’t ready to accept. High Priestess Subirachs is here to try to make you valuable enough that Keltham will change his own rules to have you; I’m here to try to keep you from saying things that separate Cheliax from Taldor.
A question you might be considering: what, then, is the role of our lessons? The answer is that only an Evil dath ilani is competent to lie to a Good dath ilani, and so we will have to become them, and that Keltham isn’t going to want girls who can’t keep up with him, so the girls valuable to the project are the ones who can. All of us would have been taken off this project by now, if learning how to think wasn’t totally essential to it, or if it was possible to learn how to think like a dath ilani with anything less than a full time effort. A dath ilani is very nearly priceless to Cheliax. You have the chance to become one. You should be utterly ruthless about arranging to succeed at your lessons; if you think of something that might help, request it. If you think of something that’s getting in the way, we will check if we can be rid of it.
The punishment order I laid out earlier is obviously heretical. It probably won’t work. It has been authorized anyway because it is that important for all of you to master this art: a thousand important things might be set aside, if that makes you faster at learning to think.
I’m going to do the draw now, for who gets punished normally, so the effects of punishment don’t get mixed up with the effects of believing your superiors are out to get you, or anything like that. Mind, even if you’re selected, you aren’t being unduly punished, you just aren’t being experimentally neglected. Here are slips of paper with all your names."
She demonstrates them, mixes them.
Asmodia is trying very hard to convince herself that, when she decided to come back, she didn't expect any reprieve like this in the first place, and also, that if she gets singled out for the worst of this, it still won't be a bad thing nearly bad enough to make up for the good thing that happened to her, it won't prove that something else hates her equally as much, maybe she got the help she did because this was going to happen to her, to help her survive it, because if she were fated to be drawn now and hadn't received that help earlier, it certainly would have broken her, which it isn't going to now, right...
Someone, somewhere, Asmodia thinks to herself, and watches Carissa Sevar draw a slip of paper.
"Tonia," says Carissa, trying not to actively sound cheerful about it because then Tonia will want to kill her which will confound her experiment. "As Asmodeus wills it. You're in good company, I got myself in trouble at the palace and spent yesterday in the Queen's company. Now I'm fourth circle.
You're all dismissed to breakfast; the High Priestess will take you aside as convenient for her."
Breakfast is better than it was yesterday, not as nice yet as it was as the villa, but things are still being set up on the project site.
Keltham isn't here yet. Pilar and Ione are, if anybody's got Additional Questions for them before Keltham arrives. Or Asmodia, not that Asmodia seems particularly interesting in any way.
If they treat that girl as special then all they'll learn is that punishment+being treated as special has good effects, which Carissa, based on her own experience, suspects it does, but which is not a scalable training program.
Breakfast is worse than in the palace, but still quite nice. She sits with the other girls so she can show off her new ability to hang a fourth-circle spell. (Detect Scrying and Rainbow Pattern, Detect Scrying for obvious strategic reasons now that she's famous and Rainbow Pattern because she'd like to stop getting into hand to hand knife fights with attackers.)
She can also answer questions if people have any for her.
Message from Pilar to Sevar: That reminds me, I made a lot of decisions about the image of the fake 'Project Lawful' while you were out of contact yesterday and Rugatonn was out of the palace. Others seemed to think the project director was supposed to be the one in charge of that policy. I offer myself for your review and your correction at your convenience.
"Aside from an increased protective feeling towards my books and occasionally ending my sentences with the name of the Herald of Nethys who delivered my vision. Ship's now sailed on everybody here knowing all about my personal hobbies, by the way, but I don't regret it takaral."
"I hadn't really adjusted enough to Hell or being dead to learn much, I think? I learned a handful of relatively simple spell diagrams and that's basically it... I'm not sure I could explain why I ended up learning that rather than something else, except for the part where the devil I made my advance arrangements with had those books on hand. Being dead was disorienting for me though it was more disorienting at the start than at the end. No timeweirdness, Hell's Lawful."
"It's not about fighting monsters, it's about using magic while you're physically and mentally at the edge of your abilities - in a state where some people - not all people, some people stall out - are able to take in a little more of the magic they're using. Yes, we've tried drugs that make the heart race, they don't do it. It doesn't matter if the danger is real but it matters if you think it is.
I don't think it'd be a good idea to tell you everything that happened yesterday, but, uh, at one point I found myself restrained and helpless in a very fancy enchanting workshop where I had been left to contemplate what I had coming, and casting spells did not work to get me out of this at all, but six feet away, on the wall, there was a shelf of spellsilver. And I thought to myself, you know, I can't actually think of a principled reason you can't bridge that with a scaffold and use spellsilver that far away, except for how it'd be ridiculously hard and might mess up the spellsilver and there's usually literally no reason. So I did, and started transforming my armillary amulet -" she taps it "- into a weapon I could use to break out, except it would've taken way too long, the weapon I wanted is a three day enchanting project, but I thought of some ways to do it faster, and Abrogail let me at this for a while because it was funny and then went back to what she'd been meaning to do with me. And I don't specifically know that I levelled from that but it was representative."
She's not keeping her voice down. It's a good story.
"Want a demonstration?" she says cheerfully to Ione, and pulls a chunk of spellsilver from her Bag of Holding to hand off to her Unseen Servant, who can hold it at the appropriate distance.
" - Keltham you're not going to appreciate this properly but you should have Detect Magic up for it, all the same -"
Carissa concentrates.
And she flings magic out from her fingertips like it's silk scarves and she's one of those silk scarf-dancers, and there's nothing for it to catch on at the other end but she's building another layer under it to keep it up, and another layer under that, moving the scaffold's center of gravity out and out and out with nothing but her will and her quick-moving fingertips supporting it. it takes a long time. Building a scaffold takes ten minutes normally. It's hard to look away from, though.
It's easier, the second time, and in the first delightful flush of competence she tells the Unseen Servant to move back another foot, and her scaffold-bridge shivers and twitches and stretches and bends and - holds, touching the spellsilver, seven feet away, and she grits her teeth and starts coaxing the power that spellsilver holds to move towards her, right here, see....
And she doesn't actually want to ruin her Armillary Amulet or waste her spellsilver, so she stops, once she's moved the first tiny mote of magic to her throat where it belongs.
It's pretty! But Keltham is lacking some context on exactly how impressive this is, and dath ilani do get bored quickly, which means that over the course of minutes he's gotten around to also trying to analyze all the other active magic visible in this room; and noticing how everybody is watching this amazing feat but only he, Pilar, and Ione have any magically visible signs of Detect Magic being up, or need to recast it at any point.
"I would no doubt be greatly impressed if I had anything like the skill or experience myself to appreciate how hard that was. I'll do my best to avoid predictable updates in my more abstract beliefs about you? But I suspect there's a visceral appreciation of this Difficult-Seeming Impressive Trick that I won't get for a while."
He doesn't know why they wouldn't tell him, if what he now suspects is true, but he's curious enough about that very question to keep quiet and see how it plays out.
"...I can try to explain but I don't actually know what your question would be. Meritxell was asking if there's a way to get in on my incredibly fascinating sex life. Regrettably the Queen of Cheliax does not have time to provide such a hands-on education to all of us. However, the High Priestess Subarachs, who is on site to provide spiritual guidance to the Project Lawful girls, has some of the same expertise, which is why she was able to advise me on recovery, so if anyone wants to explore the space of highly motivated magic practice, they can ask her. - except me, of course, I'm yours."
"Maybe once I know Jacint better, if I turn out to feel that way? But taking that slowly. I think I was sort of pushing things, the rate I rushed through everything with Abrogail, and in actual fact was leaning almost entirely on Abrogail being hot and seeming much more sensible than I was led to fear, rather than really having very much sense of her as a person."
"I was thinking Law of Probability, maybe also Law of Utility depending on whether I can teach them apart or only together."
"And, who knows, maybe I'll give learning that a shot at some point." Yes 'shatter' sounds bad, but it does not look bad if Carissa being so visibly happy is the outcome of whatever it actually means. "How many hours of practice are we talking about, assuming I have proper reference books and expert guidance? Three? Seven?"
"Now that I think about it, there was something - crystalline, about Lrilatha, I'm not sure how to put it into words - I'm not sure I'd ask her to research a new field of study, she can be one kind of person flawlessly and at speed but - maybe there's other ways of thinking she can use, that I didn't see, we were always meeting in formal settings - I'm not sure Lrilatha comes across as something truly greater than any dath ilani, who'd defeat any of us in every contest of skill? Just someone who spent a thousand years practicing a collection of things and is now unmatchable in those places - Taldane does not have any of the words or concepts I want to use right now. But maybe that's the difference between what she is, and a god."
"Is it known what Lrilatha turns into in another ten thousand years?"
"Didn't see much of him or how he thought, yeah. He looks more alien, for sure..."
"I suppose I've got time to figure it out, but I will want to figure it out, before I decide whether the afterlife here is really someplace I want to spend my own afterdeath, or if I'm supposed to figure out how to make the Starstone work reliably, or take some third option."
If Asmodia came back with anything at all, besides superpowers, it was with some practice in setting aside distractions and focusing. She's ready, and though she doesn't understand the meaning of all this, she's feeling a lot more motivated to grasp whatever she can now that there's any reason that anything matters.
It feels strange to be back at this, as if it's a habit from another world, even though it's actually only been two days off, and normal schools give you two days off sometimes, like after exams before the start of the next term.
She has her Unseen Servant take notes for her. Because she's a fourth-circle wizard.
So now, hopefully, they're getting to the good part! Previous stuff was just sort of trying to show you what Law is at all, like with Validity, and some stuff that seemed like a good idea for Cheliax to know very early on for bargaining purposes, like heredity and bargaining. The Law of Probability is starting to get into stuff you use all over the place!
And if he'd been thinking ahead properly, Keltham would've made sure that everybody got tapped with an Owl's Wisdom at least once before they started getting lectures like these. Probably they can get away with doing that tomorrow, one more day's lecture shouldn't set up too much triggerable cumulative enlightenment. Keltham is saying this out loud right now because he keeps forgetting to set that up.
Anyways! Does Cheliax already know anything about Probability, the mathematics and Law of uncertainty? Anything he can build upon, or conversely, needs to refute and redo?
"And merchants know the failure chances for more complicated things than that, like the odds a ship you send to Casmaron will make it back, which uses past voyages to Casmaron but also the state of the ship, and the state of the seas, and the season, and the competence of the captain. If you're bad at guessing then you'll lose all your money."
Keltham is fairly sure he saw this class - admittedly, this was a while ago - being able to solve problems like 'If you randomly arrange four girls including me, what are the chances I'm second in line'. He was not especially expecting them to be balked by 'If you randomly arrange us two times, what's the chance I'm first in line both times?'
Well, says Meritxell, the chance it's the same girl first in line both times is one in four, and that splits out into me-both-times Ione-both-times Pela-both-times Jacme-both times, each of those taking a sliver of the same size, so it's one in sixteen. ....but that's not applying a known Rule of Probability taught in school, it's just kind of obvious.
Jacme is not sure if Pilar really went to Elysium. Can't say that.
Meritxell is not sure if Keltham's going to ask her out. Can't say that.
Yaisa heard that the reason they had the Grand High Priestess on site was that by policy either she or Carissa must be in the room with Keltham at all times, and she's not sure if it's true, but she definitely cannot say that.
Gregoria heard that some of the other girls had to train their impersonators this morning. Can't say that.
"Actually, now that you point it out, we already think that the gods on our team saw a dominant probability of that happening. Which demands the question of why, if it was already that predictable, all the other gods couldn't predict it too and first-strike Zon-Kuthon instead of waiting for him to attack."
"But that example seems vastly overcomplicated? Literally the next thing I'd have to talk about, to walk through my reasoning about that question, is Law of Probability that a dath ilani kid wouldn't get until three years after today's layer, about whether or not gods should ever disagree about predictions like that."
"Can you think of an example much more mundane? Like, not so much gods as... scrambled eggs."
"Okay, now everybody think of, but don't say, a number to represent the chance there's duck at lunch. And nobody's allowed to go to the kitchen and tell them to do that or not do it, I hereby declare that the bad kind of cheating."
"Raise your hand when you've got your number, and once everybody has raised their hand, we'll go around saying the numbers." Keltham raises his hand immediately; there's been duck at 2 of the previous meals he's had, of which he thinks there were around 12 but he's not going to count, and he is so ignorant of Golarion that nothing else could possibly figure into his calculations.
Sure, he can work with that. If anything, it might be more useful as a gentle introduction than if they'd invented the same system that dath ilani kids never invent because they just grow up with it; a 1-12 scale has some properties but not others.
"Should've seen this part coming and asked earlier, but, anyone got a simple public randomness source, like for generating a 0 or a 1 both with equal probability? Could literally just be some physically symmetrical object that you can spin and have it fall on one side."
"Can I borrow one for the lecture, and is it okay if we call the borrowing term short enough that it rounds to 0% interest?"
(It briefly occurs to him to wonder if owning Carissa would mean he transitively owns her stuff, but he quickly dismisses this thought as obviously insane; if you had that kind of relationship, it would be one where she broke oaths and went to Abaddon on request.)
Keltham borrows the coin at 0% interest! That's the kind of trusting relationship they have!
(Anyone who recognizes Abadar's symbol should really know better than to ask this.)
The gold coin looks like the other 600 instances of this coin that he owns, with a picture of Abrogail's face on one side, and on the other side 'Sworn by Hell to be pure'. At some point he needs to ask what Hell is swearing Abrogail to be pure about, but that's not important right now.
On close examination, a coin does look sufficiently physically symmetrical, with enough lingering asymmetry for identification purposes, to serve as a randomness source if spun.
"Okay, so this coin can land 'Abrogail' or 'Text'. Now... actually, something else first..."
"First, I want you all to rescale your old lunch duck numbers to a 1-12 scale where 1 is super unlikely and 12 is super likely, so we're all on the same page about what the scale meant. If you were picking a lunch duck number that meant something totally else, scale it instead."
"Raise your hands when you've done that, then let's say our commonly-scaled numbers once we've raised our hands."
"Oh, and don't update your estimate off what other people thought, this is just supposed to be your original estimate, but we're making sure all estimates are on the same scale."
And his is 3!
Now, again without taking others' opinions into account - especially considering that people might be using different real meanings for their scales, so who knows if anybody really disagrees - consider the chance that there will be duck for lunch, AND when Keltham spins this coin, it will fall Abrogail's-face-upward. In other words, both things have to happen, so if the coin lands text-up, it doesn't matter if there's duck for lunch or not, the combined event didn't happen.
Generate new numbers for this combined event, same 1-12 scale from very unlikely to very likely. Please stick to your original opinion and original scale, rather than guessing what others mean by their numbers and updating off those.
Raise your hand when you've got it, then everybody says their numbers.
"And mine is 2."
"You may recall that shortly before the gods went to war - to be clear, I don't think there was actually a direct connection as such - I talked a bit on the Law of Dividing Gains From Trade, and one of the constraints was that identical agents receive identical pay."
"You've now generated two numbers, one for the chance that we have duck at lunch, and one for the chance that we have duck at lunch and that when I spin this coin it will land Abrogail's-face-up. Raise your hand open if you think you could state an aspect of Law connecting these two numbers, raise your hand closed into a fist if you've given up on doing that."
"Whether they go down by half depends on what the scale means. Mine went from 3 to 2, because I'm taking the 1 of the scale to mean that something absolutely can't happen, and equal intervals to represent equal amounts of chance, so halving the interval from 1 to 3 gets me the interval from 1 to 2. But it's fine if somebody else is interpreting their scale in some totally different way!"
"In fact, the aspect of Law I'd propose to govern here is that, when you have two events that both need to happen, the chance of that happening, cannot go up compared to the chance of just one event happening."
"Ione, for example, could've been tipped by the Whatchamacallit of Nethys that this coin is definitely going to land Abrogail's-face-up, in which case Ione could just give the exact same number she did before for the duck-lunch part. But even Ione's number shouldn't go up. By the way, Ione, thanks for being you, your mere presence here substantially expands the space of immediately relatable scenarios I can use for probability-theoretic examples."
"Noted, worth talking to Acquisitions about that or an item because this won't be the last time we run into this issue."
"For now, though, I first want to establish a common scale of probability before the next demonstration. Please think of the chance we have a beef dish at lunch," that'd be around 3/12 in his own guess and memory, "on a scale where 1/5 means the same as the chance that you're first in line in a randomized line of five people, or 1/10 means the chance is around the same as first in line among 10 people. If you're thinking something like, it's between 1/3 and 1/4, you're allowed to say 1 over 3-and-a-half, or even say 7/24, but you don't need to go complicated if you don't have a very exact notion of beef-lunch probability."
Raise hands when you have your number; when all hands raised, articulate guesses. Keltham isn't tracking this one closely, he just wants to check that they're now working to an understood common scale of probability.
(Encouraging! Like, not super encouraging or anything, but it could've gone wrong, and it didn't.)
Next, Keltham is going to distribute two propositions each to half the girls, to be assigned a probability on this kind of scale.
He'd be making 6 copies of each proposition, for everyone to look at privately, if he had easy copying. Since he doesn't, he'll give each group a piece of paper to be passed around among themselves, and everybody writes down their own answer individually, on the same common scale they just used for beef-lunches. Don't discuss it among yourselves and especially don't show your question to the other group.
Don't worry, it won't be a complicated proposition. It's something that happens around here about a third as often as they have beef at a meal, going on his own memory.
On this occasion they will not-really-pseudorandomize by taking alternate girls from among 'desks', that is, if they were to be numbered in a seating chart, evens would go to one side of the room, odds to the other side, starting from Meritxell. Can they sort themselves out while he writes the two propositions?
Cool! Keltham is writing on two scraps of paper while that occurs.
Meritxell et al get:
Chance over next 1 year that another god attacks Keltham, starting another god-war.
Carissa et al get:
Chance over next 1 year that another god-war starts.
They can take a minute to think, not much longer please.
When they're done, they can put their slips into two heaps. Don't look at each other's propositions yet; Keltham will announce both groups' probability-sets first.
This seems like PRECISELY the kind of situation where the lies would be discovered because they would have the WRONG UNDERLYING MATH SOMEHOW. Tell them NOT to.
Keltham could of course ask questions like these they'd all have no choice but to lie about, but hopefully first they can learn a bit more of the Law...
She puts down 1/3. The rest of her group puts it lower: 1/8, 1/4, 1/4, 1/10, 1/20.
The other group has 4/5, 1/4, 1/2, 1/3, 1/2, 1/8.
Keltham announces these results! Whatever Group Evens (Carissa) was asked about, it was clearly something pretty unlikely; while whatever Group Odds (Meritxell) was asked about, it was clearly much more likely.
Okay, compare your propositions now!
So, all y'all consider yourselves to be 'Lawful' Evil, huh.
"Keltham started one godwar in his first three days of being here so I don't see how we get through an entire year without another one," says Meritxell.
"Well, that was with Zon-Kuthon and there's not another god who almost wants to destroy the world. Except Rovagug, and someone'd have to let him out."
"Well, maybe someone'll do that," says Meritxell. And smugly: "though I wouldn't give four in five specifically for that."
"A god wouldn't have to almost want to destroy the world," says Pela. "We're changing it enough they could've been really in favor before and still turn out against now. Like....Urgathoa, if Keltham cures all diseases."
"Wouldn't she have figured that out and fought with Zon-Kuthon?"
"Do we know she didn't?"
"Well if she did then that's not another godwar in the future."
"Okay, actually, you know what, on second thought, everybody shut up and my apologies for not thinking ahead faster about what might be a dangerous line of thought. I suspect that properly this conversation happens between myself and the Grand High Priestess in a heavily screened room. Nobody repeat the name of that god you just mentioned until cleared to do so."
He wants to tell them not to think it, but has a dreadful suspicion that this would be a counterproductive instruction for non-dath-ilani.
"Going right back to Probability, one thing I'd be enthusiastic to test is whether devils make the same error. If we try this on twelve of whatever Gorthoklek is, do they make the error? Twelve Lrilathas? Twelve of whatever devil said hi to Asmodia when she showed up? Twelve people who've been in Hell ten years, fifty years, a hundred years?"
"If we can batch questions more cheaply then I have additional questions. Such as, for example, whether devils already knew about where the balance comes from between men and women, and weren't allowed to say. Or we could find that the younger devils don't know it until we tell them, but the older devils already know it, which would imply that information is stratified within Hell the way that it's stratified between gods and Golarion."
"If Lrilatha and Gorthoklek are past this fallacy, they presumably watch people committing it every 3 minutes, but are not allowed to say out loud what all the humans are doing wrong. Whatever rules prevent them from showing you what I just showed you, those rules are a key part of the foundations of order for Golarion. I want to know what those rules are. I want to check if I can maybe snap them over my knee in five minutes if I come at them from the right angle."
"Like, say, maybe there are things that, say, Gorthoklek isn't allowed to tell younger devils, but Gothoklek is allowed to point out those pieces of knowledge to me because I already know, and then I can tell one younger devil that, and they can tell others."
"Of course, before doing that, it might be good to know why those rules existed in the first place."
"I don't know the deep secrets of Hell but my prediction would be that Contessa Lrilatha gets it right the way my father might get it right because he does a lot of guessing which ships are going to be profitable, and he doesn't know a rule he could tell me about, but he's pretty good at what he does. And Contessa Lrilatha would be better but still like that. Maybe not, though."
Keltham has no particular idea that he might be close to death!
"Well, that result would be interesting from a completely different angle. Because if Asmodeus does not explicitly know that thing I just showed you, I will be really surprised. Which would mean there are things I know that Asmodeus can't tell Lrilatha."
"...I'm actually just going to check that the next time I meet her, shouldn't be long at this rate."
Keltham is aware that some people might consider the current topic of conversation to be portentous! This is deliberate! He has an infohazardous chain of thought he is trying to distract them from, and himself too for that matter.
"But let's return to the experiment we just ran. One notable thing about it is that, just based on the experimental results themselves, we can't point to any one of you, and say, this person must've done something insane. We can't point to Peranza," yesterday Keltham gave up and did actual memory exercises to try and remember people apart from their nametags, "and say, her estimate was unreasonably high, her estimate was unreasonably low. We can tell that the two groups were collectively insane but not that any particular person in them was insane."
"Let's go back to considering the estimates for the chance of duck at lunch. Even after we get to see lunch today, can we say anything about who was sane and who was crazy, based on the 12-point scale?"
"And there's more rules like 'you can't have your number go up when you're predicting more things at once' and when you have four rules like that there's only one possible scoring system which is the Law of Scoring," Asmodia says out loud, a strange electric excitement running through her.
"Good, Asmodia. That's not literally exactly correct, but you've seen the pattern."
"That's sufficiently far ahead of where I was going, that the next time you have a prediction that far ahead, I want you to say 'Prediction' and then write it down instead of... or actually just say 'Prediction' and then Message me, because we're all casters here."
"Now, if we could all just pretend to forget that Asmodia spoiled the book for us by telling everyone the ending while I was just getting started..."
"We've just heard a new rule proposed by Carissa that you should get more points for giving higher numbers on duck, when there's duck, and more points for putting lower numbers on duck, when there's no duck. Well, I agree, that's pretty reasonable. Any other rules come to mind?"
"...if a prediction breaks down into predictions for two parts, you shouldn't get more points for the combined predictions than from getting each of the parts right separately?"
"If - hmm - if two people both say duck, but one is more sure than the other, and it's duck, that one should get more points."
"And if two people say no duck and it's duck, but one was more wrong that one should lose more points. And they should get the same points for the same prediction."
"...right."
"Well, those are all interesting rules, but the idea that two different people who give the same numbers should get the same points, seems to imply that everybody is, in some sense, using the same scale, in which case, that scale seems like it should maybe mean something. The same way that, inside a language, the same sounds mostly mean pretty similar things to different people."
"But let's back up. We can imagine that we've got this game which awards more points to people who put higher numbers on things that did happen, and lower numbers on things that don't happen. You can't be better off by not guessing. We don't have the Law for it, or any such thing, we just built a game that encourages numbers to go up or down in a way that matches what does and doesn't happen. We play that game for a while, turns out somebody is really good at it, say Yaisa has the best score by far. What" human capital "person-with-a-valuable-skill do we now have in the form of Hypothetical Yaisa? Maybe Hypothetical Yaisa is just good at playing a strange game but the skills in that game aren't useful for anything else."
"Who says the numbers you learned to assign are the ones that merchants need to decide whether to send out a ship? You're slapping 3s on this and 9s on that and the merchant is like, 'uh, but do I send this ship or not' and you're like 'well I don't know what the numbers mean, I just learned what kind of number-assigning gets me a high score'."
"These how-often-she's-right numbers sound quite interesting, maybe we should actually just be using them directly instead of the 12-point scale? I mean, if we've got to translate the original scale into how-often-she's-right numbers, maybe we can skip the extra step and have the game just be about those? Though first, right-oftenness numbers would have to be a thing. Can you say more?"
"Well, it's kind of what we did with the gods prediction, right, 'one third' or 'one quarter', except wars with gods don't happen often enough you can figure out who is good at it, but if someone predicts whether a ship will come back, and if they say 'it'll come back a quarter of the time' and if they say that of four ships one comes back, then that's very valuable, pretty much as good as soothsayers used to be anyway."
"Even if something didn't happen very often, let's say a Nidal invasion instead of that other thing, I might go to the person who had a really good record about ships. I mean, it might not be optimal, but at the very least they'd have a bunch of experience with how to hone and slice anything down to the difference between one-third and one-fourth. And they'd answer in numbers that meant that, instead of saying 3 or 9 on a 12-point scale and then you've got to pause and ask them for a hundred predictions like that so you can even figure out what a 3 or a 9 mean."
"Well, anyways, let's say that in this game you give a number from 0 to 100, and those numbers are supposed to directly represent the chances out of 100. If something happens 1 time in 4, you say 25, because something that happens 1 time in 4 will also happen 25 times out of 100."
"How do you score those numbers from 0 to 100?"
So apparently his brain just registered a reluctance to shoot down his girlfriend too cruelly, and wow does that impulse need to get poisoned and handed off to the Surreptitious Head Removers, not just because entire integrity of the teaching process, but also because Keltham has ever met Carissa Sevar and if she could read his mind about that she would be cometary-impact levels of sad and possibly angry.
"Interesting, interesting. Well, Carissa, want to play a few rounds with me of predict-if-the-coin-lands-Abrogail-twice-in-a-row? It's a pretty simple game, on each round, we write down our numbers, Asmodia spins the coin twice, and if it's Abrogail both times that's a yes-event, and otherwise a no-event. Which we also mark down. After 12 rounds we reveal our numbers, score ourselves using your rule, and whoever has the highest score wins. Anyone else in class is also welcome to play along."
"Actually, we're not going to end up with that particular property, necessarily? When you're just - guessing things, trying to know things, it's not like something comes in and takes your real-life gold pieces when you do the thing that loses you game points. Like, the game can just say, every time you try to guess, that means you might turn out to be wrong and lose points. But that's fine, because just guessing and just being wrong doesn't hurt your bank storage unless you actually made a bet."
"Who, besides Asmodia, would like to now try stating a fragment of Law that scoring rules ought to obey?"
"I think it'd be something like - escalating gains from being right when you pick an extreme number and from being wrong when you pick an extreme number, so it's only worth being that extreme if you're sure - and there's going to be some rule this implies but I don't know it, that balances it exactly right -"
"So, considering all the numbers P we could guess between 0 and 100, if the truth is that something happens F out of 100 times, and doesn't happen 100 minus F out of 100 times, we want..."
This room's wall does now function as a whiteboard for people who, like Keltham, can cast Prestidigitation.
argmax P of F*Yes(P) + (100 - F)*No(P) = F
"...which is to say that it seems like a Lawful scoring rule must surely have this property: for every F between 0 and 100, the answer P that maximizes the sum of F of the yes-value you get from P, plus 100 minus F of the no-value you get from P, is F."
"In other words, if something happens 25 out of 100 times, then out of every possible answer between '0' and '100', '25' should do best, when it comes to adding 25 yes-values of the answer to 75 no-values of the answer."
"Putting somebody into a situation like this is what makes their answer mean, 'How often do you actually think this happens?' There's a lot of ways to put people in weird situations where their answer could mean something else instead, because the most rewarding answer they could give isn't the one that matches reality! Civilization tries to avoid weird situations like that, so that our words and more importantly numbers go on meaning things."
Carissa's not back to full health yet. She can feel it, even aside from the waking up panicked. But -
- it's like she can feel the thing she's reaching for, just barely out of her reach -
The most rewarding answer is the one that matches reality. That simple, and Hell - might genuinely not have stumbled on it - no, surely they have, at the highest reaches -
...so on the one hand she is pretty sure this is not how Asmodeanism works, and, on the other hand, it seems pretty persuasive that this is how Lawfulness works, and, on the original hand, she is very sure that Asmodeus is Lawful. Is she allowed to just think that she'll ask Aspexia Rugatonn about this later or is that cheating?
Meritxell isn't sure there's a contradiction here.
There might be, but - you're not supposed to reason about everything the same way. Obviously you're not supposed to use numbers-reasoning to consider matters in which the Church has instructed you; it's for matters where you can't otherwise figure out what you're supposed to believe.
At least she hopes that's it.
Keltham gives those words some time to settle; he's kind of guessing that nobody in Golarion has ever before considered the notion of incentive conditions under which talking becomes communication.
"So now, of course, we have the problem of finding any scoring rule which has this lovely and desirable property."
"Well, and we'd also like it to have the property that, when something happens, the higher the number you assign to it, the higher your score; or, when it doesn't happen, lower numbers get higher scores."
"So long as we're making up a wishlist, we'd like the method to still work if somebody says '17.3 out of 100'."
"We can take advantage of a symmetry which is that, if something happens 47 out of 100 times, that means it doesn't happen 53 out of 100 times. So the yes-score of 47 should equal the no-score of 53. Or to put it another way, the no-score of 30 is just the yes-score of 70; we don't need separate yes-score and no-score rules."
"And somebody named an important final condition earlier, does anybody happen to remember it?"
If you literally do not need to know about logarithms to be a wizard, and gods can't tell Golarion about math on the order of the conjunction rule of probability, that substantially increases the chance that, in fact, the trick to synthesize your own spells is something on the order of 'invert a matrix so you can solve for start state given end state'.
Regardless. He can work with this.
"If you can't solve the very abstract problem, make up a very specific problem and consider what the scoring rule would have to look like for that," Keltham suggests.
Wizards aren't trained in this math at all but she's lots smarter now, and pure math is one of the things headbands are really good for.
Gregoria's condition is trickier than it looks. Because what they want is for the scoring rule if it would award you 5 points for a guess a and 5 points for a guess b, to award you ten points if a and b are both true; but the chance of a and b both being true is their individual chances multiplied together, like how two coin flips is 1/4. There isn't anything that has that property - correction, there isn't anything she previously knew about that had that property. What could you possibly do to numbers -
"I think we need to invent a really weird thing to do with numbers to satisfy Gregoria's property," she says. "I'm imagining, uh, defining some property of numbers that scales up a steady amount when they grow by multiplication."
...okay, not bad. You usually have to prompt a dath ilani five-year-old more simply and more extensively than that before they invent the concept of a logarithm, and they've been hanging around adults talking bits and decibels already.
"Can you give me an example of a few numbers and their weird-property-values such that the weird-property-values obey that rule?" says Keltham.
"Alllllll righty ighty then. Though one observes that if there's a function from 'how powerful is this magic item' to 'how much money does this cost me', there is generally some reverse function that goes from 'how much money do I have available to spend' to 'how powerful of a magic item can I get'."
"Anyways, I propose that what you want is a Mysterious Function with the following property:"
Whiteboarding: \x y. MF(x*y) = MF(x) + MF(y)
"And, again, can you make up some particular xs and ys and MF-values that obey this rule?"
So what they need is a rule for the leftovers after you take out the powers of 2 which behaves the same way as the bigger 'take out the powers of 2' rule. Can you....take out powers of something smaller? No, that doesn't feel like it'd work - it treats the places where numbers are whole as different, the real answer won't do that... Can you...define how close, in a multiplying way, the bit leftover is to being another power of 2?
Yes, the new puzzles on the board do precisely crystalize the question, they just don't suggest how you answer it.
(But if Asmodia figured it out already then it can't be that hard.)
What does it mean, to find the one halfth power of 2. ...well, presumably, it's the number that multiplied by itself makes 2. ...what does it mean, to find the 99/100th power of 2.
"Okay, I think it just works to have fractional powers of 2," she says, "so you can use the powers of 2 rule all the way through."
Time's up!
Score(2/3) is half of Score(4/9), which will be a bit less than Score(1/2), so a bit more - uh, a bit less than negative 1/2. Score(2/3) = a bit less than -1/2.
Score(99/100) is a bit less than 0 and she's not sure about score(0), she keeps wanting to think score(0) = 0 but score(1) is already 0.
"Okay, so in dath ilan, everybody in this class would have been sorted here out of thousands of candidates, based on really fine-grained predictions that caused everybody to finish getting the problem within roughly the same minute. In broken Cheliax schools for people with average Intelligence 10, everybody who falls slightly behind is... left to sit in total confusion for the rest of the class while effort gets focused on the people who are ahead? Am I missing something there that is more clever than it sounds? If it's not always the same people who are ahead, we're going to end up with a class no one member of which has all of the pieces. Fully thirty seconds of thinking about this on my own part has so far failed to yield a brilliant solution."
"All right. This is not going to be the last time we run into this issue while we wait on intelligence headbands for the class, and even then, if I've got this right, they'll just be +2 headbands, so here's my baseline policy proposal to" meliorize "improve from there:"
"This time, I spend extra time tutoring everyone who isn't Carissa Asmodia Meritxel and Ione on 'logarithmic' functions. I see how much further we can get based on that, then we take a longer lunch break than usual so everyone can prep spells and in particular prep the crap out of Fox's Cunning. If there's second-circle spells you'd usually want to have, and won't be getting because of this policy, and they're spells a cleric can cast for you, maybe tell me and I'll start praying for those. Security, I'm not sure what kind of collective resources all the wizards at this installation have in the way of second-circle spells, but I request at least sixteen Fox's Cunnings available for us to allocate on future days. Thirty-two would be better."
Civilization sometimes sorts people having difficulties to easier classes, which will, of course exist and be optimized for that purpose to the limit of what very smart people can optimize.
It doesn't leave them sitting confused.
There's a saying about cryopreservation which is "Civilization doesn't leave anyone behind." It's sort of a Good saying, so Keltham's not saying it in Cheliax, but the thought did run through his mind.
"I'll report that and we can see what we can do, but we only get personal use spells once all the emergency response needs of the installation are met and I don't know if it'll add up to thirty-two." Obviously implicit, to a Chelish listener: and you're commandeering all our personal use spells, you know.
This particular subtext is also very legible to Abadar clerics, who are not famous for expecting free services that nobody has to pay for.
"I could be wrong, having not tried it either way let alone both ways, but being able to brute-force bottlenecks like that and keep the class unified, seems like the sort of thing that could easily correspond to a factor of 1.5 speed difference in our work. The work that is, in fact, the reason this installation exists in the first place."
"I submit a request for - temporarily, until Intelligence headbands arrive - stationing additional wizards here, second-circle or higher, collectively able to supply sixteen Fox's Cunning per day, or to make up deficits in emergency response capabilities produced by reallocating the second-circle spells of those wizards who possess adequate security clearance to be in direct contact with us. Thirty-two is better. If that can't happen by tomorrow, I request at least twelve Fox's Cunnings that day collectively among available Security wizards."
"If I had an actual budget I would be asking how much it cost inside that budget to compensate you for any time or inconvenience, or hire those additional wizards; but having an actual budget with line items is not a way that Governance seems to currently be trying to relate to me, and so I can only ask Governance for stuff."
Dath ilani kids, before they run into logarithms, have prior experience with seeing numbers as bags of prime factors. Maybe running over that for a few minutes will help with priming this pump?
15 is a bag of a 3 and a 5.
4 is a bag of two 2s.
15*4 = 60, so 60 is a bag of two 2s, a 3, and a 5.
If you multiply 2 and 3, you get 6.
So if you divide 60 by 6, you should get a bag of one 2 and a 5.
2 times 5 is 10. Checks out, right?
Now make up your own bags with numbers and play with that to see if your reasoning by bags-of-factors gets you the right answer.
Well, sure, you can use 4s as factors and see what happens? But if you want to turn numbers into unique bags of numbers, each number in the bag has to not be made up of any numbers smaller than itself.
Those favors need to be charged to the project budget somehow.
Onward then! They're going to need calculus anyways, to get all the way through proving that the logarithmic scoring rule works correctly, and the calculus you need for that exact thing shouldn't be hard to teach in a few minutes even if Keltham has to do it from scratch. But let's keep the focus on logarithms for now.
So first of all, remember that Asmodia had already worked out that since 9 is a bit more than 8, there should be slightly over three 2s inside a bag of two 3s. So 1.58496 2s inside a bag of one 3 shouldn't be surprising.
And is that one fact Asmodia found, going to be the only fact like that which exists? Three 3s is 27, and two 5s is 25, so there should be slightly less 2s in a bag of two 5s than in a bag of three 3s. Say there's a thrice-bit-more than 4.5 2s in a bag of three 3s, then a little fewer 2s in a bag of two 5s, so there ought to maybe be 4.5 2s in a bag of two 5s and 2.25 2s in a bag of one 5. The actual number is 2.32193 or so, which is, as one would expect, a tad more 2s than are in a 4.
You could also notice that a bag of seven 2s is 128, and a bag of three 5s is 125, so you'd expect a tad less than 7/3 2s in one 5, which would give you an estimate of 2.333... 2s per 5. Not far off at all, right?
Yes, Keltham is writing this down on the whiteboard:
3*3*3 = 27 <=> log3(27) = 3
5*5 = 25 <=> log5(25) = 2
2*log2(5) = log2(25) ≈+ log2(27) = 3*log2(3)
3*log2(2) = 3 ≈+ log2(9) = 2*log3(3)
log2(3) +≈ 1.5
actually log2(3) ≈ 1.58496
2*log2(5) ≈ 3*1.5 = 4.5
log2(5) ≈ 2.25
log2(125) = 3*log2(5) ≈+ log2(128) = 7
log2(5) ≈ 7/3 = 2.333...
actually log2(5) ≈ 2.32193
Now there's cleverer ways to compute this once you actually get calculus. But it so happens that 3^12 = 531,441, and that 2^19 = 524,288. There's slightly more than nineteen 2s in a bag of twelve 3s. So you'd expect log2(3) to even more precisely be a tad more than 19/12, which will be 1/12 more than 1.5, so 1.58333, which is nicely closer to the true 1.58496 than the previous estimate of 1.5.
Problem time! If you happened to have memorized the figure of 1.58496 2s per 3, you could derive that log2(8/9) ≈ -0.08496*2, for purposes of scoring a prediction of 8/9 on something that actually happened. So score(8/9) is about -0.17 'bits', to borrow the Baseline term. Does anybody see how that figure gets derived?
There's a lot of silent scribbling.
Well, says Gregoria after a bit, log2(8/9) is log2(8) + log2(1/9) - that's the entire desirable scoring property that got them on this horrible tangent in the first place.
And log2(8) is 3.
And log2(1/9) is going to be negative, fractions always are. log2(1/2) was -1. log2(1/4) was -2. log2(1/8) is going to be -3, and log2(1/9) is going to be - log2(9).
She doesn't actually know why this works but she can see that 3 - (1.58496)*2 is about -.17.
Sure. It's just saying that you have to take around 0.17 2s out of a 9 in order to get an 8. 9 × 8/9 = 8. 3.17 2s minus 0.17 2s equals three 2s so an 8. 8/9 just literally means the number you multiply 9 by in order to get 8, so it's the number you multiply by to take 0.17 2s out of the bag.
If it's a probability of something happening 8 times out of 9 it's the same number and will score the same way, according to the scoring rule that counts 2s in things. Which is the scoring rule that gives you the same cumulative score whether you assign 1/4 to two events, or 1/16 to their product event.
"Yep." His smile goes away after a moment; it's impossible to have any sense of how well this is going when everybody is supposed to learn this at age five or six and they're adults.
"Well, if you can take half of a four out of a bag of fours, and a third of a thousand out of a bag of thousands, why not take 17 100ths of a 2 out of a bag of twos?"
"I mean, there's the problem of figuring out that taking out 0.17 twos from a bag works out to multiplying the contents by roughly 8/9, but you can get that fairly precisely off nineteen twos being a bit less than twelve threes. Possible self-study problem: rederive that yourself, convince yourself of it, prove it, without looking back at the whiteboard."
This would otherwise be a good time to Message Carissa to ask how he's doing teaching-wise, but apparently Asmodia, Ione, Meritxell, and Carissa also think that rederiving this claim is a good exercise for them to do.
Possibly Keltham is overcorrecting for how many fewer exercises ought to be required to grok logarithms if you first encounter them as an adult rather than a five-year-old.
When Carissa was a five year old she required one on one tutoring from her mother to have enough attention for anything at all complicated, constantly forgot things that ought to be in working memory and needed reminding of them, and had about ten minutes' attention span for actual thinking. Trying to teach her math in a group would have been a disaster.
Anyway, what is 8 9ths as a bag of twos.
Dath ilan didn't say it was easy to teach it to five-year-olds. Civilization is staring at that problem and optimizing it roughly as hard as Civilization ever optimizes anything.
Figuring out how to have logarithms be fun to learn about starting one month earlier on maturation timelines is a perfectly respectable accomplishment for a +4sd researcher's entire life's work. If any single individual made a discovery like that singlehandedly, it would get them well into the 'more money than one person can reasonably spend on themselves' category of rich.
Meritxell scribbles until satisfied that the log of (8/9) is going to be the difference between the log of 8 and the log of 9, and then until satisfied that that difference is the difference between 3 and 2*log(3), and then looks around for someone who looks stuck and helpfully helps! Paxti, are you stuck?
Paxti has worked out that 8/9 is 0.888. She's worked out that nineteen 2s is 524,288 (by multiplying by 8 repeatedly to get to 18 2s, and then doubling the final result), which got her an answer that could've maybe been on the whiteboard she can't look at.
Paxti is currently working on computing twelve 3s via assembling a bag of six 9s. After that she's going to divide out 19/12 the long way. Maybe if she computes all the numbers Keltham said to compute, it'll be obvious once she's computed them how to put them together.
A bit later on Paxti has managed to get 9^6 = 531603 (close enough), and 19/12 = 1.58something. Now she just has to figure out how that all fits together with 8/9, or three 2s and two 3s.
Nineteen 2s equals twelve 3s. You need more 2s than 3s to make up something, so that makes sense. 19/12 is the number of 2s in a 3. There'll be 2*19/12 2s in a 9, so it's 2*19/12 = 19/6. Subtract 3 2s for the 8, and... 19/6 - 3 = 19/6 - 18/6 = ...
Message Keltham: I get that there's exactly 1/6th of a 2 in an 8/9, does that make any sense?
Keltham will come over and check how she arrived at that conclusion, but will soon approvingly inform Paxti that if, as is not actually the case, 2^19 exactly equalled 3^12, then yes, there'd be exactly -1/6 2s in 8/9. Please observe that -1/6 is -0.1666... or about -0.17.
To try to see it a glance, consider that if there's 19/12 of a 2, in one 3, that's 1/12 more of a 2 than 1-and-a-half 2s: 19/12 = 18/12 + 1/12.
So in a 9, there should be 2/12 more 2s than in 8. Though it's actually a bit more, because 3^12 is greater than 2^19, so there's a bit more than 19/12 2s in a 3.
Well obviously this learning experience is Done, then! At least Keltham figures that's how it should work if you don't need to just spend a bunch of time playing around waiting for your brain to mature slightly further.
They should probably all stand up and walk around and eat a tiny snack though.
"This may be a dumb question, but is there any connection, however distant, between the snacks and the Elysium thing?"
Keltham previously knew 2 facts about Pilar, her trip and her fetish, and he was already suspecting there would ultimately prove to be some connection between them (trope-wise, not causally). Now he has noticed a third fact repeated twice: Pilar has candy.
"Almost definitely yes? Um, according to what was found out yesterday, the snacks are a product of an intervention by Cayden Cailean, which people seem to think is in support of the project, and Cayden Cailean is Chaotic Good, which is the alignment on Elysium, but nobody's sure about anything."
That would be very stupid, which is why Cheliax's very smart people are confused. Some possibilities: it's actually stupid! Cailean is called the Drunk God etc etc Pilar can fill that in with true stuff. Alternatively, it's meant as a form of communicating that Chaotic Good is backing Asmodeus here. Alternatively, it'll turn out to actually be important for some reason, say if the project is besieged, or if everyone is nutrient deficient on something that the snacks contain. Alternatively, there's some kind of preexisting god agreement which happened to cash out like this.
"Repeating back some things that have been said to me: That would, in fact, be incredibly stupid, the phrase fucking Chaotic fucking Good does come to mind, Cayden Cailean is called the Drunk God because he did the Starstone on a dare while drunk. But it could also be to show that Chaotic Good is backing Asmodeus on this, or it could be important for some reason like we get beseiged and have to survive on my snacks or everyone ends up deficient in something the snacks contain or there could be a pre-existing god agreement that happens to imply this -"
"We wouldn't know because we don't have magic items that connect us to all of the knowledge in the world. Wizard school, which I've been to, was better organized, but it wasn't, uh, it hadn't started existing less than a week ago?"
Thinking loudly: Dear Asmodeans, have you considered actually telling Keltham some things before he finds them out and asks why he hasn't been told them?
Well they did tell Keltham that Pilar was held up in the capital by tons of very serious people trying to figure out what the fuck was going on with her, which is about as much setup for 'we're not keeping this secret on purpose' as you can manage. Probably the payoff to things like that needs to always be a couple hours later.
Security, pull him aside -
Privacy spell. "All divine interventions on the project disclosed to us are as follows: Asmodeus, at the Worldwound the first day, communicating to His priest that the project should be established. The next is the intervention of Broom's god, Otolmens, the Lawful Neutral god of preventing catastrophes, empowering Broom.
We now believe that Cayden Cailean's manipulation of Pilar began on the third day, when she mysteriously ended up in the room with you before your excursion out of the villa, and that its primary aim at least was saving your life, but we haven't ruled out that it began on the second day, because Pilar didn't recall that incident as unusual until we asked about it, and anything where she mysteriously ended up somewhere other than in a secure operation she hadn't been invited to might've been hard to detect in retrospect. We think Pilar went to Elysium as a consequence of it, somehow. As I think was reported to you, she spent yesterday at the palace with people trying to get to the bottom of what's going on, but we are still a ways away from a satisfactory answer, though the snacks have been very conclusively demonstrated nonmagical, safe, and tasty.
Nidal's attack on you was almost certainly a divine intervention. Ione's warning was a divine intervention. A second divine intervention by Asmodeus directed us to restart the project here. That is the specific answer to your specific question, but it occurs to me that you might additionally want to receive the briefing we all receive daily, which is more extensive than that."
"I would definitely like to receive at least one of those briefings and, if possible, review previous ones."
"I think I can already guess the answer to this, but if I asked the question, 'What official of Chelish Governance has responsibility for making sure Keltham learns things we know and that he'd obviously want to know', is there in fact no such identifiable official who gets pointed questions from their boss when something like this happens?"
Split second decision: is it a good idea to make Governance sound that incompetent.
Taldor would be.
Cheliax, obviously, isn't. What happened is that it was Carissa's call and Carissa who'll get - hah! - pointed questions from her superiors about it - and arguably also Maillol on the grounds that everyone knew Carissa wasn't at full capacity and it was his job to be handling communications with Keltham in the meantime.
Incompetence is an easier lie than most other lies to tell - and they are going to need to escape, later, they couldn't escape from the real Cheliax -
"I don't know if that's anybody's specific job," Carissa has Security say. "It very well might be that there is, but they got pulled to the front with Nidal. This is - a really unusual situation for our procedures. If you want to ask that question of the site director, they'd definitely know exactly what went wrong."
"Question one: Why wasn't I immediately told that Broom was from a goddess named Otolmens - why is that information secret and who here can I talk about it with?"
"Question two: I realize this wasn't your own decision, but for purposes of concretely understanding Chelish Governance, I file a request for, possibly later, an example trace of the process that led to my, apparently, being approved to know the name of Broom's goddess, and this approval being known to you, but nobody actually telling it to me. Was there a pending briefing or is it that - you have a process for approving me but not a process for actually telling me, what is going on, it sounds like I maybe have to acquire some domain expertise on what is going on, does this project in fact have a budget or are people in Governance just doing things -"
"Question three: Does anything else spring to mind that nobody specifically has the ball on telling me about, even though I ought to be allowed to know it? Because let me say right now, I've already noticed one thing like that, and have been quietly and in some bemusement and concern pretending not to notice, while I wait to see if it's being hidden on purpose for an interesting reason."
"Otolmens's name is secret. You can talk about it with Broom, you can talk about it with Security, you can talk about it with the site manager. You can request clearance for specific students, if you want to be able to talk about it with them. The reason Otolmen's name is secret is secret and I do not know it, nor whether you're cleared to know it.
I don't know how you got cleared to learn Otolmens's name, but I can request an...example trace of the process. I learned that you were cleared to know that this morning, at our briefing, and not at our evening briefing last night, so the clearance almost certainly arrived in that timeframe.
I do not know the project budget.
I don't know which things you've been told, but I'm assuming you're more likely to not have been briefed on things that happened since the war started? Uh, since the war started.... they found some ancient skeletons in the villa, while they were searching it for Kuthite traps? The skeletons weren't Kuthite traps, to be clear, just, someone had died there some decades or centuries ago. We've withdrawn Teleport-capable casters from the Worldwound temporarily, with other nations filling in for us, and added a bunch of them here. There was a supply run to Absalom. We raised all of the project staff who died. We instituted a mandate that all project security carry scrolls of Teleport. The girls who hadn't made afterlife arrangements did so. There was discussion of finding some perfectly normal INT 10 peasants to be on cooking staff at the project in case you find it useful to talk to an average person."
"Item I was thinking of wasn't on that list. I'll let it keep and see what happens."
"My apologies if I sounded a bit sharp in your personal presence. I am not under the impression that... whichever Security you are... is personally responsible for my travails here."
"I request Otolmens clearance for Carissa Sevar."
"We done for now?"
"If a schedule exists then I am not perturbed by it happening in the evening. Provided that there are no pending items in it on the order of divine interventions."
"Actually, further item if it won't drop memory, and if it will, let's get paper. I request, rather urgently at this point, the nearest thing that can be found to a book which lists out all the known gods large enough or local enough or domain-relevant enough to be looking at my project, one which would include every mentioned god so far except Otolmens, and a book that will cover in it somewhere what is known about agreements between gods. This information is apparently highly relevant in practice to my project, on what has so far been a daily basis."
Keltham stalks back into his lecture room.
"I don't know why I expected Planetary Average Intelligence 10 management processes and bureaucratic design principles to successfully be only slightly beneath dath ilani standards, but, in fact, they're not," Keltham says. "I am restraining myself from interrupting the math we were in the middle of doing, for that digression. We should finish the math first. After that or shortly later, I am going to deliver a really pointed lecture on Lawful organizational principles whose pointedness is not, in fact, aimed at you, but is aimed at whoever ends up reading it."
Keltham takes an additional moment to compose himself. If Chelish Governance is running some kind of massive effort to gaslight him, they sure are doing a good job of including the appearance of not being competent enough to pull that off, and making lots of weird errors about information that isn't really being concealed but nobody is bothering to tell him, serving as a cover for whatever it is that's actually being hidden. Which, you know, is what you'd expect from competent Governance running a competent gaslighting operation, right? No doubt the average thinkoomph on this planet is not really -3sd, that's ridiculous, how would people even survive. Look at how long it took them to find or train an actor who could convincingly pose as Intelligence 10 while doing kitchen work.
"Okay, you know what, I am not actually going to be able to focus on math until I get this out of my system. We're just going to put everything about logarithms and bags of factors of 2 and prediction-scoring rules on hold, to be resumed later."
"Instead I'm going to deliver a talk that had better be transcribed and delivered accurately to everyone who is trying to manage Project Lawful."
"Project Lawful is a terrible name, by the way. The moment I heard it, I knew that the decision-making processes behind it were going to be correspondingly terrible. I wasn't going to say this until after I'd covered the concepts of probabilistic updating, probabilistic entanglement, and mutual information - those being the Law which would allow me to explain exactly why this was a terrible idea -"
"But absent that Law, consider an adversary pondering two alternative hypotheses based on evidence they've managed to collect. One theory is that a certain Chelish project is investigating a mysterious source of knowledge not previously existent in Golarion. One theory is that Cheliax is making a massive effort to scale up metalworking because they expect to be invaded. If you give your projects cool names, one of these possibilities will sound much more than the other like something that someone might've called Project Lawful, even if they can't deduce the true answer just from the name. You should call your amazing top-secret project Project Doorknob, or something else chosen completely at random by a true randomness source, which carries no information whatsoever about what the project actually does. Except, of course, that if all your other top-secret projects also have cool names, the one with a sane name will stand out as being the only one with any sane thinker in it, meaning, someone not from Golarion, if anybody like Lrilatha knows what that should look like. So this should be Project Dragon, maybe."
"The password to the Forbiddance on the previous project site is also terrible and completely insecure and whoever set it should never be allowed to invent any passwords again, and if you're thinking that I'm an idiot for not thinking to mention that before they set the password here, you're right. For the record, a slightly better password for a Forbiddance might be, for example, 'escape copper shore'. It's not hard to remember, but difficult for an adversary to guess unless they get a quite large number of tries."
"But I digress."
"Basic project management principles, an angry rant by Keltham of dath ilan, section one: How to have anybody having responsibility for anything."
Keltham will now, striding back and forth and rather widely gesturing, hold forth upon the central principle of all dath ilani project management, the ability to identify who is responsible for something. If there is not one person responsible for something, it means nobody is responsible for it. This is the proverb of dath ilani management. Are three people responsible for something? Maybe all three think somebody else was supposed to actually do it.
Dath ilani tend to try to invent clever new organizational forms, if not otherwise cautioned out of it, so among the things that you get warned about is that you never form a group of three people to be responsible for something. One person with two advisors can be responsible for something, if more expertise is required than one person has. A majority vote of three people? No. You might think it works, but it doesn't. When is it time for them to stop arguing and vote? Whose job is it to say that the time has come to vote? Well, gosh, now nobody knows who's responsible for that meta-decision either. Maybe all three of them think it's somebody else's job to decide when it's time to vote.
The closest thing that dath ilan has to an effective organization which defies this principle is the Nine Legislators who stand at the peak of Governance, voting with power proportional to what they receive from the layers of delegation beneath them. This is in no small part because dath ilan doesn't want Governance to be overly effective, and no private corporations or smaller elements of Governance do that. The Nine Legislators, importantly, do not try to run projects or be at the top of the bureaucracy, there's a Chief Executive of Governance who does that. They just debate and pass laws, which is not the same as needing to make realtime decisions in response to current events. Same with the Court of Final Settlement of which all lower courts are theoretically a hierarchical prediction market, they rule on issues in slowtime, they don't run projects.
Even then, every single Governance-level planetwide law in dath ilan has some particular Legislator sponsoring it. If anything goes wrong with that law, if it is producing stupid effects, there is a particular Legislator to point to, whose job it was to be the person who owned that law, and was supposed to be making sure it didn't have any stupid effects. If you can't find a single particular Legislator to sign off on ownership of a law, it doesn't get to be a law anymore. When a majority court produces an opinion, one person on the court takes responsibility for authoring that opinion.
Every decision made by the Executive branch of government, or the executive structure of a standardly organized corporation, is made by a single identifiable person. If the decision is a significant one, it is logged into a logging system and reviewed by that person's superior or manager. If you ask a question like 'Who hired this terrible person?' there's one person who made the decision to hire them. If you ask 'Why wasn't this person fired?' there's either an identifiable manager whose job it was to monitor this person and fire them if necessary, or your corporation simply doesn't have that functionality.
Keltham is informed, though he doesn't think he's ever been tempted to make that mistake himself, that overthinky people setting up corporations sometimes ask themselves 'But wait, what if this person here can't be trusted to make decisions all by themselves, what if they make the wrong decision?' and then try to set up more complicated structures than that. This basically never works. If you don't trust a power, make that power legible, make it localizable to a single person, make sure every use of it gets logged and reviewed by somebody whose job it is to review it. If you make power complicated, it stops being legible and visible and recordable and accountable and then you actually are in trouble.
The basic sanity check on organizational structure is whether, once you've identified the person supposedly responsible for something, they then have the eyes and the fingers, the sensory inputs and motor outputs, to carry out their supposed function and optimize over this thing they are supposedly responsible for.
Any time you have an event that should've been optimized, such as, for example, notifying Keltham that yet another god has been determined to have been messing with his project, there should be one person who is obviously responsible for that happening. That person needs to successfully be notified by the rest of the organization that Cayden Cailean has been identified as meddling. That person needs the ability to send a message to Keltham.
Carissa's own fault analysis here, insofar as she's making herself think about it, which isn't all that much because she's still not back at 100%, is that obviously it was her job, once the decision was made to bring Pilar back and once Pilar's authorized lies were settled on, to get those authorized lies conveyed to Keltham at the speed it would happen in alterCheliax. It's really obvious why she didn't do this - it's because, as literally every authority she has talked to in the last twenty-four hours told her, she's not in fact fully recovered, not tracking everything - but it was still her job. Cheliax knows who has responsibility for figuring out what Keltham learns and when, and it's her.
And in her absence it's Maillol, and if he criticizes her for this she'll criticize him right back, but the entire reason (well, most of the reason) she took his job was that she expected he'd miss things she wouldn't, so.
This is a thing Carissa likes about Cheliax: it is not a place that hesitates to assign responsibility. Right now it's going to assign it to her, and that's going to suck, but, that's how we get stronger. (Unless punishment doesn't work) Asmodeus specifically instructed on Carissa's punishment and can be assumed to have had an aim in mind.
In companies large enough that they need regulations, every regulation has an owner. There is one person who is responsible for that regulation and who supposedly thinks it is a good idea and who could nope the regulation if it stopped making sense. If there's somebody who says, 'Well, I couldn't do the obviously correct thing there, the regulation said otherwise', then, if that's actually true, you can identify the one single person who owned that regulation and they are responsible for the output.
Sane people writing rules like those, for whose effects they can be held accountable, write the ability for the person being regulated to throw an exception which gets caught by an exception handler if a regulation's output seems to obviously not make sane sense over a particular event. Any time somebody has to literally break the rules to do a saner thing, that represents an absolute failure of organizational design. There should be explicit exceptions built in and procedures for them.
Exceptions, being explicit, get logged. They get reviewed. If all your bureaucrats are repeatedly marking that a particular rule seems to be producing nonsensical decisions, it gets noticed. The one single identifiable person who has ownership for that rule gets notified, because they have eyes on that, and then they have the ability to optimize over it, like by modifying that rule. If they can't modify the rule, they don't have ownership of it and somebody else is the real owner and this person is one of their subordinates whose job it is to serve as the other person's eyes on the rule.
'Nobody seems to have responsibility for this important thing I'm looking at' is another form of throwable exception, besides a regulation turning out to make no sense. A Security watching Keltham wander around obviously not knowing things he's been cleared to know, but with nobody actually responsible for telling him, should throw a 'this bureaucratic situation about Keltham makes no sense' exception. There should then be one identifiable person in the organization who is obviously responsible for that exception, who that exception is guaranteed to reach by previously designed aspects of the organization, and that person has the power to tell Keltham things or send a message to somebody who does. If the organizational design fails at doing that, this incident should be logged and visible to the single one identifiable sole person who has ownership of the 'actually why is this part of the corporation structured like this anyways' question.
Yes, most of the command structure is at the Nidal front because of Golarion's stupid-ass correlation between management rank and combat potential. Keltham gets that. There are ways to design organizations to be robust to exceptional structural events like that. Dath ilani corporations consider how to operate in earthquakes, or if communications get cut by a massive solar weather event. Everything like that gets rehearsed at least a little, once a year during the Annual Alien Invasion Rehearsal Festival. The central principle is that so long as the ability to identify who's now responsible for something can still function, the organization can still function.
Cheliax's problem is not that the person whose job was to tell Keltham about Cayden Cailean is fighting Nidal. Cheliax's problem is not that this person's failover was also on the Nidal front. Cheliax's problem is that the question 'Well who's responsible then?' stopped without producing any answer at all.
This literally never happens in a correctly designed organization. If you have absolutely no other idea of who is responsible, then the answer is that it is the job of Abrogail Thrune. If you do not want to take the issue to Abrogail Thrune, that means it gets taken to somebody else, who then has the authority to make that decision, the knowledge to make that decision, the eyes to see the information necessary for it, and the power to carry out that decision.
Cheliax should have rehearsed this sort of thing by holding an Annual Nidal Invasion Rehearsal Festival, even if only Governance can afford to celebrate that festival and most tiny villages can't. During this Festival, the number of uncaught messages getting routed to Abrogail Thrune, would then have informed the Queen that there would be a predictable failure of organizational design in the event of large-scale catastrophe, in advance of that catastrophe actually occurring.
If literally everybody with the knowledge to make a decision is dead, it gets routed to somebody who has to make a decision using insufficient knowledge.
If a decision can be delayed - which class of decisions, by the way, does not include delaying telling the guy who started the last god-war about the latest set of divine interventions targeting him, that bit could actually be important for all somebody knows - then that decision can be routed to some smarter or more knowledgeable person who will make the decision later, after they get resurrected. But, like, even in a case like that, there should be one single identifiable person whose job it would be to notice if the decision suddenly turned urgent and grab it out of the delay queue.
Keltham gets that Golarion doesn't have the incredibly convenient universally connected devices that Civilization uses to run all of its corporations and government. He gets that. But the fact that people were walking around knowing that Cayden Cailean had intervened on his project, authorized to tell Keltham this if he asked, and the thing ended up waiting until he asked, seems like the symptom of some deeper organizational mis-structuring whose details Keltham cannot guess. It means that Cheliax is underperforming what should be possible to do even with the technology that it has.
It is plausible that Keltham should look at the administrative structure above himself, rip it apart, and put it back together the way it would be put together in Civilization.
But the general mode of operation in which he still has never been invited to meet the site manager on this project, been told a budget for it, shown the names on the chain of command leading up to Abrogail, et cetera, all seem suggestive of some kind of motivated illegibility in which somebody somewhere thinks something bad will happen if Keltham can access all that info or they are incentivized against it by flaming farts know what kind of bizarre payoff function.
He does not think this is because Cheliax is plotting dark plots against him, to be clear, because if they were plotting, they would show him a fake organization above himself, rather than leaving him in a bizarre limbo where he does not know who is actually managing this project, and his only actual conversation with anybody he knows to have any authority over it, was that time he spent half an hour sitting next to the Queen of Cheliax watching her feed tiny crumbs of food to fish, and this is not a scalable solution.
And in fact, now that Keltham thinks of it, an obvious guess is that nobody is managing this project, because Asmodeus said to set it up, so people in Governance did that, but Asmodeus didn't say who should manage it, so nobody is, and everything going on here is actually being routed into a completely ad-hoc system of random people in Governance grabbing bits of authority and responding to his requests as he makes them, and there is apparently a site manager because this person has been mentioned to him, but there's nobody above that site manager and so the site manager is hiding because he knows he won't be able to answer any of Keltham's questions.
Which is, Keltham supposes, what project management and governance might very well end up looking like, after subtracting 6 Intelligence points from everyone and everything.
Is he wrong? Is anyone allowed to tell him if he's wrong? Is the person who would need to sign off on that on the Nidal front, is their failover replacement dead, and is there now a long awkward silence while everybody in this room knows the correct answer to his question but the person who needs to sign off on answering it is discarnate?
"The site manager is Ferrar Maillol; his office is labelled on the maps they put up in the cafeteria; he's the person I go to when you want mice or something. I....think he reports to someone in the Church? Probably a higher circle cleric? And probably someone at the front right now. They probably report to the Queen and the Grand High Priestess."
"If they're reporting to the Queen and the Grand High Priestess then they're not reporting to anybody. Pick one."
"To be clear, that advice was not directed at you personally."
"I will note, however, Carissa, that you do not, in fact, have any idea of who is above Ferrer, except that somewhere up there is the Queen and Grand High Priestess. It's actually pretty rare where I come from to not know who is your boss's boss. Maybe this is because you don't have the universally interconnected machines but I really wouldn't think so. You have not actually disconfirmed the fallback hypothesis that what you do not know about, does not exist, and there is nothing above Ferrer but an amorphous cloud of individuals in Governance whom Ferrer individually contacts each time he tries to make something happen on the site."
"Anyways, I think I am done with the main part of my rant that I needed to get out of myself. Any questions you expect the actual readers of this lecture will want answered? After that, by the way, and on reflection, maybe more urgently than resuming the math parts, I need to know WHO THE ASS IS CAYDEN CAILEAN IN VASTLY GREATER DETAIL."
Claims that have been authorized about Cayden Cailean, all true:
He is a former human adventurer. History has it that he ascended on a drunken dare, which isn't the kind of thing that should be possible. His areas of concern are competition, exploration, sex, mind-altering substances, and revelry; his herald is a prostitute and former travelling companion; he tends not to seek out conflict with other gods, but is allied with Desna, Milani, Sarenrae, Shelyn, and Torag; he has chillier relationships with the Lawful gods, and it's generally understood that He and Asmodeus don't get along, being diametrically opposed in alignment. He doesn't have a holy book, having never seen fit to inspire the writing of one. There are rumors that He personally attends drunken festivities in the River Kingdoms in His honor.
Does anyone want to stop her from answering, think think? No?
"Gods can do most things but they usually don't, when they manifest looking like people it's usually inside their divine realm. There's stories about gods manifesting in Golarion, but only during huge crises, and it's not clear to me from my reading that any of it must have really happened, except that most books say that Aroden was doing that when" Asmodeus killed him "he died."
Ione didn't go out of her way to collect information like that, or at least, that's what she told herself, but in retrospect, maybe she happened to be hanging out in sections of library where there were books talking about how vast and how ancient Golarion and other planes were.
"So gods are easier to kill when they're manifested looking like people, and they only do that in their highly protected home where it's safe, or after they build what they think is a large enough coalition to protect them from other gods, or in massive emergency-opportunities?"
Cheliax's best guesses that Keltham is allowed to know are that Cayden Cailean is trying to support the project in some way that may only be clear in retrospect, that Cayden Cailean lost a dare of some kind, that Cayden Cailean is subject to some preexisting agreement which manifests like this, or that He's just not acting in a goal oriented way, sometimes Chaotic gods don't. Ione can add her own speculation if it'd make sense in alterCheliax.
Some of that doesn't sound like things a random Project Lawful researcher should be saying!
"It could be that he lost a dare, it could be that there's an old bargain, it could be that he's just being Chaotic Good and literally doesn't have a goal because Chaotic gods are sometimes like that. Or it could be that - somewhere at the end of everything that happens here is a lot of exploring, competing, and sex and revelry and drugs. Not necessarily for us personally, to be clear, I'm more the bookish type."
"Pilar, did they say anything more to you?"
"The clerics who examined me said that everyone's current guess was that Cayden Cailean is being, uh, cooperative, not least because of the bit where I was there to step in front of a sword at the right time, which is why it seemed like a better idea to leave me here than pull me as a Security risk. Whatever gods think is supposed to happen as a result of this project, Asmodeus likes it, your god likes it, Nethys likes it. The current guess is that either Cayden Cailean likes it too, or Asmodeus bargained with him to help." The degree to which this itself is incredibly odd and alarming is not to be said out loud.
"So Cayden Cailean is in favor of Civilization because people will be having more fun. Okay. That's better news than I was expecting, it sounds like he might be one of the gods that's just all the way on board."
"That makes sense of why Cayden Cailean but not why candy. Were there any speculations about why candy?"
"I would guess that - if you're the kind of god that Cayden Cailean is, it's easiest to act on the world by giving out candy, even if that requires a weird complicated Chaotic plan instead of a simpler one?"
Wait a minute. Was that her guessing? That sounded like something Pilar shouldn't have known herself.
"Say, Pilar, I'd say that for putting up with this, I deserve, not just any cookie, but a big cookie with precisely printed frosting that happens to explain what's going on here and what Cayden Cailean wants from our project and what he's trying to do with it and also what's the name of my god."
"Then I suppose 'Project Lawful' will continue on, with snacks catered by Cayden Cailean. Thank you, Cayden Cailean, the magnitude of your contribution there seems difficult to understate. Though I do appreciate the Pilar save during the attack, to be clear."
"I'm going to take a brief break and then get back to math. Fifteen minutes, say." He's got to use the washroom, for one thing.
Actually, he should take a bite of the cookie, just in case it contains edible knowledge? Nope. It's a good cookie, though.
(Keltham departs.)
"Mostly they - I thought at the time - tried really hard to talk me into staying. At the very end after I said no, they told me that the whole point was so that I'd be, certain of myself and my choices, I forget how they put it exactly. Said I was going to be used for Lord Asmodeus's interests, not against Him, because Good would mostly rather not use people against the ones they're truly loyal to. The Grand High Priestess thought that someone like them might maybe be telling the truth about that, to someone like me, but it doesn't mean Cayden is on Asmodeus's side, he could be plotting to destroy Cheliax and then I prevent a new Worldwound from opening in the center."
Some other things happened since then that do look more like Cayden Cailean cooperating. Is Pilar supposed to say anything about those?
Keltham is now here! Perhaps he was really always with you all along.
So, math, yeah.
When we'd previously seen our plucky heroines, they had just realized that everything, or at least, all the positive real numbers, can be seen as being made out of continuous quantities of 2s being multiplied together. A 3 is a bit more than 19/12 of a 2, so 1/12 more than 1-and-a-half 2s. So diminishing something via multiplying by 8/9, is taking a bit more than 1/6 of a 2 out of its bag.
Predictions chain together by multiplication. If you spin a fair coin once, the probability of it coming up Abrogail is 1/2. Knowing whether it came up Abrogail or Text doesn't change the probability on the next spin, so the chance of two sequential Abrogails is 1/4, the chance of three such is 1/8.
Each time you say 1/2, and the event happens, that's like taking another 2 out of the bag containing your total prediction over all the events. Where, to be clear, your bag started with zero 2s in it, or probability 1. After guessing 50/100 three times at three fair coinflips, your bag would contain -3 2s or a probability of 1/8.
What if you predicted Abrogail with 2/3 probability instead, on one spin? Well, if the coin comes up Abrogail, good for you, you've only lost - how many 2s, roughly? Raise your hand once you've got an estimate.
"Hold that thought just a little longer."
"If you predict Queen with probability 2/3, then if you get Text instead, as happens half the time, you thereby predicted that with probability 1/3. Though actually we'd say that it's a tiny bit less than 2/3 and 1/3 because maybe the coin could land on its edge or just mysteriously vanish, but leaving that aside for now. If you predict Queen with 2/3 probability and the coin comes up Text, how many 2s do you lose?"
"So would you agree that this scoring function..."
"Gives you more points, or rather, has you lose fewer 2s, the more probability you assign to whatever happened?"
"Gives you the same final number of points, or 2s lost, whether you're predicting two coinspins at once, or predicting them separately in different rounds?"
"And, at least in this particular example we checked, it wasn't possible to expect to score more average points, or lose fewer 2s, by giving an answer other than reality's answer for how often something happens?"
"Not exactly. Counting lost 3s will also work. Or counting lost 5s. But that just scales the number of points you win. There's around nineteen twelfths of a 2 in a 3, so if you know how many 3s you lost, you can convert to how many 2s you lost. It's not so much that there's only one function, as that all the functions like that, are basically doing the same thing and have outputs that are trivial to convert back and forth."
"The Law, in this case, is not an exact function or an exact number of points, it's a structure such that every solution shares that structure and does almost exactly the same thing. Like a simpler and clearer version of the way that lots of logics are ultimately equivalent to first-order logic in what they end up deriving."
"If everyone is predicting the same questions using the same knowledge. If your sole goal is to end with as many 2s as possible, and you get to pick whether or not to play the game, the only winning move is not to play, so you can end up with the same zero 2s you started with."
"Otherwise you start with nothing, and then lose more every time you try to predict anything that isn't absolutely certain, and the best you can do is losing the least 2s possible, which will always still involve losing some, it's just that if you don't match reality you do even worse. So, yes, if that was a game with, like, actual penalties, and no other reward for playing it, nobody would play that game if they had a choice."
"Well," Keltham says, speaking less rapidly than usual, because some of his processing just got diverted to a subthread, "we can and do play it for fun, and do that our whole lives, in fact. It just involves a mindset where - you can try to do as well as possible, each time you confront a prediction challenge, without feeling like you're losing something in virtue of doing less than perfectly."
"The most obvious thing to match yourself against, there, is other people's predictions. Pilar predicts one number, Yaisa predicts another, we see who did better, just like if they were playing some other competitive game whose in-game rewards sum to zero across all sides, but whose positive extra is the fun people have from playing it, or their pride in showing their skills. There's a version of that game which dath ilani play, before they're ready to go all the way to prediction markets, where we put up a sheet of paper on the wall - or just use walls and Prestidigitation, I guess - and write down a question, and then people who think the current probability is wrong can write down a different probability underneath and be scored by how much they gained or lost relative to the previous guess."
"I'm not quite sure we're ready yet, but once we are, we'll probably just start doing that over all the place, whenever somebody comes up with an interesting question that will actually settle in a few days."
"But I think the most basic point - lost 2s aren't actually like sending out the merchant ships to the wrong place. They're a measure of how well you do, and you do better by losing fewer; but the fact that the numbers always look negative don't mean you're doing poorly. If you're losing few enough 2s, you can send your merchant ships where they need to go, and that's the reward for playing."
This feels like a really big part of Evil dath ilan. Accountability, true and perfect and impartial, handed down from reality itself, impossible to rebel against or lie to; competition for its own sake, to prove oneself worthy of the power to send ships -
- there's something there. Though also some heresies to navigate around.
"The more mature version of this is where people are betting money against each other inside a common market, forming a prediction market, and the places where prices settle then become Civilization's way of knowing what Civilization knows."
"If this project were running inside Civilization, there would already be a prediction market over what its outcomes were, like whether we succeed in our technological revolution, or start another war, and every time something interesting happened, the prices would shift, and that would reflect Civilization knowing more about our project's prospects. Or, I mean, in this case, it would be a secret government prediction market, but then that's the government's way of knowing secret things. I wish we had one, actually, I'd have loved to see what happened to the prices when Pilar started handing out Cayden Cailean candy."
"People who make massive amounts of money on prediction markets by being righter than everyone are incredibly rare in Civilization, and they're respected about as much any other kind of person who exists. A Legislator is significantly less respectable than Nemamel, who beat the prediction markets her whole life to the point where she could only trade anonymously because nobody would knowingly bet against her. Nobody takes that name any more, she owns it now, it's hers forever. There's nine Legislators at any given time, and there were five people like Nemamel over the course of Civilization's remembered history."
"Every kind of skill Civilization knows how to describe is one that thousands or millions of people learn. Nemamel couldn't have been what she was, noticeably better than all her competitors, if she'd known how to describe all of what she was doing with no bits left over. She passed on some of her skills and made the markets themselves better, but Nemamel had no successor and no replacement in the domains she'd mastered most, when she went into" cryosuspension "the deep cold of suspended time, waiting on the Future to awaken her. It was one of her classic - your language doesn't have the word, an acerbic disclaimer of how far you fell short of your own standards in the course of impressing somebody else - that people who were actually competent and understood what they were doing could just teach their skills to others so everyone would have them. You only become Nemamel by failing to understand yourself that well, or by being born with good heritage that isn't anything you hold in your mind's own hands and can teach to others, so why be impressed by that - was her acerbic disclaimer."
"Probably sort of? Suppose I put it this way: Clearly, I should be telling you more about dath ilani heroes - heroes? - people who are incredibly impressive - because dath ilani don't grow up to be skilled by trying to be Keltham, they grow up trying to be Nemamel."
"But how does Nemamel grow up to be Nemamel? She was better than all her living competitors, there was nobody she could imitate to become that good. There are no gods in dath ilan. Then who does Nemamel look up to, to become herself?"
"And the answer is - she looked up to an image that existed in her own imagination, better than all her competitors and also far better than herself, the person who would've executed all her own skills perfectly, been everything she was but better, not something like Nethys that knows the answers just because, but something less powerful than that which knows them for reasons and by being clever."
"If she'd ever stopped to congratulate herself on being better than everyone else, wouldn't she then have stopped? Or that's what I remember her being quoted as saying. Which frankly doesn't make that much sense to me? To me it seems you could reach the Better Than Everybody key milestone, celebrate that, and then keep going? But I am not Nemamel and maybe there's something in there that I haven't understood yet."
"It didn't seem like a kind of pride that was being offered to me then, in retrospect, looking back. It was the pride of the very smart people who are smarter than the other people, that they look around themselves, and even if they aren't the best in the world yet, there's still nobody in it who seems worthy to be their competitor, even the people who are still better than them, aren't enough better. So they set their eyes somewhere on the far horizon where no people are, and walk towards it knowing they'll never reach it."
"But now we sort of are the very smart people now, aren't we, or trying to be that, and maybe I understand a little more, now that I think on it again. I mean, if I try to imagine myself - looking at Golarion, and being like, 'Ah yes, I have done better than Golarion, yay me' - that would just be stupid. No offense. Probably Nemamel was that, but for dath ilan. To her it was like Golarion is to me. And that's why when people congratulated her on being better than everybody, she was all, 'stop that, you only like me that much because you're thinking about it all wrong', compared to some greater vision of Civilization that was only in her own imagination."
Keltham doesn't aspire to be like Contessa Lrilatha when he grows up; that would be aiming too low.
Maybe even trying to build Evil dath ilan is aiming too low.
She's not actually sure what would be aiming higher, though.
Or maybe the idea is not to aim high, the aim is just to imagine what you'd get if everybody was doing everything right all the time -
- if everybody was doing everything right all the time, Asmodeus's weaknesses could be taught in schools so smart children grew up thinking how to strengthen Him, and they would think thoughts that were actually a good idea, instead of in this world where Aspexia Rugatonn seemed to genuinely consider it plausible that it's better for most people to be stupid lest they trip over their own cleverness.
If everybody were doing everything right all the time, then when Keltham had arrived they would not have needed to lie to him; they'd have known how to explain themselves to him, because they'd have known how to explain themselves at all.
What if not everybody was doing everything right all the time, but Carissa personally was. Then she'd have noticed all the things she didn't understand sooner - (and gotten executed for heresy) - no, she'd be like Pilar, impossible to accuse of heresy because none of her thoughts twist away from other things - why did Asmodeus pick Carissa rather than Pilar -
- anyway by the time Keltham landed she'd understand the thirty-word explanation of Hell that makes it not upsetting to Good people and they wouldn't need to be running an elaborate deception. And if there was occasion for it, she'd be better at it, because of understanding how all the world is deeply interconnected.
No, no, that's not good enough either, aim higher -
"Not epic heroes, no. There's no gods in dath ilan, and no afterlife, it doesn't mean that we just let everybody become, the equivalent of getting eaten by Abaddon. Food kept cold spoils more slowly... maybe you don't know that here, if there's no cold-making machines, but like ice freezes into a shape and keeps it, if you cool people down far enough, everything stops and nothing decays from there. And they can wait, for however long it takes, until Civilization has become powerful enough to bring them back. It's not as simple as I'm making it sound, you first need to cool people down to above the freezing point of water, cycle as much water as possible out of their body and add protectants to what's left. But to do this as well as they possibly can is something to which Civilization has bent all of its will and all of its eyes and all of its cleverness."
"About a hundred people every year die for real. The air-traveling machine I was on, when it crashed, is going to make that be around two hundred this year, probably."
"Everyone else goes into the cold where time stops, to wait it out, and awaken to whatever the Future brings, when Civilization becomes that powerful. There are far prediction markets that say it's going to happen eventually with - what I would think would be unreasonably high probability, for something that far out, except that those markets are flagged with Keepers being allowed to trade in them. Whatever secrets the Keepers keep, they would be turned to the purpose of protecting the Preserved, if they were turned to anything at all. So I guess that number reflects what the Keepers would do if they had to, that nobody but them knows they can do."
"So no, Nemamel can't be brought back in an emergency, we just don't have the tech to do that yet, and no magic. But it also wasn't because she was epic. It's just what happens to everyone in Civilization when the first part of their story finishes, and pauses for a time. Someday, the far prediction markets say, everyone will be reunited."
Everyone except Keltham. But cases like his are statistically improbable, and people shouldn't dwell on them.
"Ninety-seven percent, and without calibration training I expect you have no idea how flaming ridiculous that is for a prediction about the Future, but it's really superheated ridiculous. Apparently the Keepers think they could make thirty completely different statements like that and be wrong once, and, them being the Keepers, they've already thought of every single possible reason worth considering for why that might not be true. And that's not the probability of the tech working, it's not the probability of revival being possible in principle, it's not the probability that Civilization makes it that far, it's not the probability of the Preserved being kept safe that long, it's the final probability of the Preserved actually coming back."
Maybe, if there's something you can easily do with magic and +4sd thinkoomph that destroys dath ilan, and can't be opposed by more and smarter people wielding more magic.
Though there's really only one hint that there's been anything that weird in that whole universe, and it's the Screening of the Past... still, one such hint is noticeably more than zero... but one of the few things that is publicly known about the Screen is that it doesn't reflect anything weird and concealed about the true character of physical law... would that still be an honest statement if magic were ultimately made of math, which in some sense it does have to be?
"Haven't really thought it through. It seems more plausible now than a week ago, surely, but it wouldn't have seemed very plausible a week ago."
"I'd also expect something the size of magic to make the Keepers less certain, not more, because if there's magic around then somebody could blow up all of dath ilan with a misstated Wish spell, in which case the Preserved don't come back."
"Seems like a natural place to call it for lunchtime, and maybe break for some wizard-spells practice by me after that."
"This ended up not being the Law of Probability, as it has apparently turned out; this has just been the Law of Scoring Predictions, and the lesson wasn't complete. I haven't gone through the calculus to show you that, for every chance-in-reality, you get the best expected score by naming that chance as your estimate."
"But the Law of Scoring does get you far enough to know what a probability is, and to start practicing the skills of putting probabilities on things, and have some idea of how well you're doing at that."
Oh, and Keltham will write down all the log2 values for some landmark probabilities from 99% down to 0.0001%. You sure do lose a lot of bits by saying 0.0001% for something that goes and happens!
Well, it started with her curse warning her about a party of Osirian adventurers presumably dispatched by Osirion to kidnap the cake girl. In the sense of sending her to the key location with a cake to be delivered about fifty minutes later.
Then Pilar's curse told her she shouldn't just turn the kidnappers over to Security because that would make her curse sad, and her curse claimed that giving her the information was an act of trust in Pilar's Lawfulness and she needed to act like a god or her curse wouldn't be trusting her again.
So Pilar went to the Grand High Priestess's office to submit herself to the authority of somebody who understood deranged Chaotic Good curses invoking implied god-agreements. But the Grand High Priestess was not there. And when she was contacted by mirror, the person she put in charge of Pilar was Pilar.
Pilar had to run a meeting. It involved a lot of intelligence officers debating what to make Osirion believe. They were much older and more powerful than her and Pilar had to act like she was an invincible Project Lawful girl who was totally able to run meetings like that. There were lots of decisions about what was best for Project Lawful and Carissa Sevar was completely out of contact and the Grand High Priestess had put Pilar in charge and Pilar had to guess what Sevar would've wanted her to have done.
(Pilar doesn't actually sound this plaintive. It's just very very clear subtext for this perfectly professional report that Pilar is giving.)
Relatable, thinks Carissa, and then she realizes that she isn't going to let that show on her face because she's in charge here and is supposed to know what she's doing, and then imagines Keltham sputtering about signaling equilibriums that shouldn't equilibrate, and then lets it show on her face just a tiny bit, as a reward for Pilar if Pilar has good Sense Motive.
"Optimistically," she says, "maybe Cayden Cailean has noticed we're going to win and is hoping he can buy the victory being smoother and less wasteful in exchange for it happening faster, which pleases Asmodeus. Or - hoping he can buy the world we'll build having more whorehouses and parties, I don't think those are inherently un-Asmodean.
But I expect that's not what Nemamel would say, could we wake her from her sleep and ask her."
Pilar wasn't actually expecting that much approval. It makes her feel better, but only a little. Pilar feels like she has probably done a lot of things that call for her to be punished, and not in a matter-of-faith way where she could assign it herself. Submitting to High Priestess Subirachs for her cruel amusement isn't the same as that. Somebody who actually knows what Pilar did wrong has to tell her what that was. The closest she's gotten to that is one spy punching her in the face and he wasn't even on the right side.
Pilar continues her story. Somebody said that Project Lawful's cover had probably been blown as soon as dozens of uncleared emergency responders went to the villa and then a god-war started, because if you try to stonewall adversaries completely about a god-war they'll start using ninth-circle scrolls to get your people or get information out of them.
So Pilar personally made the irrevocable decision for all of Project Lawful that they were going to go deliberately high-profile to the other countries. But with everything resting on the power of Pilar's own weird curse, because that weird curse didn't seem very related to what Project Lawful was actually about, making it a good distraction.
They had a seventh-circle wizard go in looking like Pilar, to deliver the cake, and she made the Osirians actually eat it with her, and then sent them home.
That was how Pilar's adventure yesterday started.
"One moment, I'm deciding whether you made the right call or not.
I think yes. The one thing we can't afford for them to learn about is Keltham; if they're desperately trying to learn about the other girls that's resources not dedicated to learning about Keltham. Unless you're scryable. This place has some anti-scrying, don't go outside until I think more about it. Do you have possessions or relations such that you'd be distracted if they were kidnapped..."
Pilar has already been so instructed, on never leaving scry-shielded places without escorts. There are probably a lot of people looking for her by now.
Pilar has a mother and sister who cannot come before Lord Asmodeus in her heart, but even after she said that, they got moved by Security anyways, which must be the correct decision since Security knows best. She owns nothing of real importance to her, saving perhaps her spellbook.
After the cake incident ended Pilar asked her curse if she'd behaved like a proper god around this deranged god-agreement she'd never made, and Pilar's curse said yes and good job and offered to help her scare a paladin out of the palace.
So Pilar called the Grand High Priestess again and reported that, and what she'd already done, but it was only briefly, and the Grand High Priestess couldn't possibly review everything that Pilar no doubt did wrong, and anyways wouldn't have the time for assigning her punishments.
The Grand High Priestess said that this was beginning to become interesting and told her to go scare off the paladin.
Pilar's curse required her to feel an actual desire to let the paladin go home safely before she was able to find him.
She didn't think until afterwards about whether maybe her curse might have tricked her into sending a paladin away safely who was going to be Maledicted anyways. Her curse said that, if so, hypothetically speaking, the paladin would've completed his mission first, and Asmodeus wouldn't have considered that a good trade, and would've been well-served by scaring off the paladin instead, for Pilar will never be used against her Lord.
Pilar expressed some skepticism about Chaotic Good apparently being fine with the paladin not completing his mission. Her curse claimed that it was totally reasonable for Lawful Evil and Chaotic Good to team up against Lawful Good just like against Chaotic Evil because they both found paladins annoying for different reasons.
Pilar asked how her curse felt about throwing surprise parties for all the Lastwall spies targeting the palace so that they'd get to go home safely to their families.
Pilar's curse said sure, but there would have to be offsets from the standpoint of Chaotic Good, make it an offer. There was a MEETING with VERY SENIOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS asking Pilar whether Chaotic-Good-pleasing things they could do cheaply were good enough for her, like they thought it was her making the decisions and not her oracular curse. And in the middle of that the QUEEN came in and asked Pilar why nobody had thought of asking the Queen to be part of the Osirion-scaring operation, and Pilar felt like a tiny baby mouse too small for a huge hawk to be worth eating, being asked by the hawk why it hadn't been invited to the baby mouse's party.
Now there's some things Cheliax is doing for Chaotic Good in exchange for getting rid of as many spies as they did, mostly undoing some small things that Cayden Cailean would've really hated and that weren't actually helping Cheliax that much. Plus a compact that, so long as it looks like Lastwall still really doesn't have any eyes left on the palace, they're not going to try any plots more nefarious than they would've done if Lastwall had still been watching.
The compact was signed by the Queen in blood.
Pilar let her curse direct her, and what her curse did, was, her curse mushed a cupcake into the parchment so that the pink icing left behind would be her curse's signature.
Pilar doesn't actually know whether or not she would still be alive, if the Grand High Priestess hadn't been personally attending the meeting by then.
She probably would be; Abrogail's perfectly capable of being professional when there are real stakes for Cheliax. Of course, Cheliax has lots of diamonds right now so maybe Pilar being dead isn't real stakes.
"But, let me guess, too busy to offer any detailed opinion on your conduct besides that you should go ahead and round up all the spies?"
Carissa Sevar is RIGHT. How did Carissa Sevar KNOW.
So Pilar pointed out the people who would be invited to her surprise, and arranged a huge party in the palace's largest ballroom, and everybody was invited in such a way as to scare them as little as possible. Also one of the people who did the inviting was the QUEEN and Pilar had to go WITH the Queen to set that up and the Queen TALKED at her about THINGS and actually Pilar would rather not think about that entire conversation for the rest of her life.
Then there was a huge party for the spies who got to go home, with Pilar dressed as Meritxell, who Pilar hopes enjoys being very very famous to other countries' intelligence services. The Queen danced with a prostitute. Pilar comforted somebody who was sad about his country probably not wanting him back and explained that home can be anywhere that people care about you and doesn't have to be the country you were born in.
Pilar's curse was very excited and happy! And said that Pilar got another week before her curse started feeling hungry again. Apparently even though Pilar got musicians and official Imperial snack catering and gave colorful hats to all the Security officers, it did not count as a real actual proper party to her curse, because the party didn't have enough true camaraderie, revelry, sex, and drugs. Or something. Pilar has not previously been really into Cayden Cailean theology.
Then she finally was allowed to go to her new quarters in the fortress, and High Priestess Subirachs was very mean to her. That, plus a Nap Stack, was the only reason Pilar was remotely functional today.
Right. Okay. Carissa's day was not actually all that much better but she's not going to say that.
"It might be worth separating out trying-to-appease-your-curse and trying-to-leverage-your-curse-for-counterespionage," she says after a bit of thought. "I bet you could ask your curse for, I dunno, some girl in Ostenso in a predicament Chaotic Good would be sad about and that Asmodeus doesn't prefer either - blinded by a fever and starving to death, raised in a cellar by Urgathoa cultists, whatever - and throw her a 'we've restored you to health and to life' party, and maybe that keeps the curse sated, rather than trying to time the palace events to the curse's demands, which might leak information some way we're not thinking of.
'would this paladin otherwise have been Maledicted', and also 'would this paladin otherwise have learned something false that served Cheliax' are things you should have thought of before you talked to the paladin. It worked out fine, but it might not have. It's possible your curse is trying to get you in the habit of doing curse things without checking if they are also the best deal you can get Cheliax and our Lord. It is stupid, dangerous, and stupidly dangerous to operate in the palace without understanding the Queen and what she'll want to hear about and what to involve her in directly, but I am tempering my judgment over that because I'm not sure that the important people in the room would've known what to tell you.
It is very Asmodean to be able to make yourself believe useful things that you know on some level Nemamel, with your information, wouldn't believe. I don't - get why, actually, and I think it might be close to the secret of Evil dath ilan, and this might veer close towards instruction on faith, which I can't offer you, but I'm not going to punish believing that the paladins should get to go home because that'd be nice for them; your beliefs ought to serve Asmodeus, and that one did.
On the whole I don't hear major errors, in that. You are in the power of a really annoying enemy, which permits you very little of what it'd be healthy for you to enjoy; but getting rid of all Lastwall's spies is a huge achievement, and might let us root out their revolutionaries, too, if they have worse information. The myth of the Project Lawful girls exceeds our real capacities, but not for very long, maybe, if we keep learning.
You may try on my headband, and think for a minute about whether there's anything else you got wrong that Pilar who was smarter would've gotten right."
Pilar's pretty honored by this! She will put on the headband.
The headband definitely feels like it is making Pilar be much smarter! Pilar can now be allowed to know things that she thinks only a smarter Pilar ought to know.
"It would've been really valuable for us to know what the Osirians would've asked the cake girl if they'd taken her prisoner. I could've ordered a Security to go ask for volunteers in the palace dungeons, somebody would've been genuinely cheerful about getting out to do that, even if there was a chance they might get Soul Bind cast on them for a while."
"I feel like I was being really stupid when I was talking to the paladin. Amateurish. I was making too much up as I went along. I'm afraid he's going to get home and somebody's going to figure out that he wasn't really talking to an agent of Milani. I should've given his cookie to a more experienced agent and let them talk to him."
"I should not have talked up Paxti as Project Lawful's deadliest agent. It should've been somebody who's just quietly reliable like Gregoria. I made that choice because I thought Paxti would like it, not to serve our Lord. That's severe."
"Most of the sin and transgression I'm feeling is because I talked sharply to people who were above me and better than me and ordered them around, and, even if I had to do that, I feel like that's something an Asmodean should still be punished for. I grabbed away your authority and made decisions for your project while you were out of contact. Even if that was my best effort at doing a job the Grand High Priestess ordered me to do, it doesn't mean that I shouldn't be punished for all the things I chose to do along the way. If I'd done it wrong or disobeyed, that would mean being punished even more, but I still - it's like Keltham's game, there's a best way to play but not a way where you don't lose any 2s."
"And I should've arranged for somebody to cast Fox's Cunning and Owl's Wisdom on me before the meeting started, it was important."
Pilar takes off the headband, less reluctantly than some people would. Being the person who a smarter Pilar seems like she ought to be is not as comfortable as being regular Pilar.
"The Grand High Priestess thinks you'll be the first success, if I do discover a way to produce Evil dath ilani. Maybe the only one. I understood her at the time just to be saying that it'll be very painful, and you can take it - and it will be - but I think maybe she was saying something that is also gestured at by Keltham's game. You'll play even if you only ever lose. There is a human weakness, a tendency to shy away from games we are sure to lose, that is attenuated in you, I think.
- I'm going to take a while to calculate these punishment codes, I haven't done this before. You're dismissed to lunch."
Thank you, Pilar doesn't say, because Cheliax, but the thank you that she's not saying is very sincere.
"Acknowledged," Pilar says, and goes to lunch feeling a lot better and very glad that she has superiors like Carissa Sevar and Aspexia Rugatonn, who hopefully are not doing this at all because they feel any fondness for Pilar personally; it would be sad if Hell had to correct them for that.
Cheliax is incompetently managed, anywhere that somebody on the order of the Queen or Aspexia Rugatonn is not watching very closely. Sevar is unfamiliar with this because she went from her wizard school, managed by a wizard wearing probably a +6 intelligence headband, to the Worldwound, which is where a lot of the best managers are being expended, and then straight to Project Lawful. Sevar has never in her entire life tried to serve on, let alone manage, a temple project inside the capital of some random County in the Chelish boondocks, where there's three layers of higher management between you and Egorian, never mind King Infrexus.
Maillol's got this one.
He can be totally realistic about this.
Carissa and Pilar are both gone, which Meritxell takes as an opportunity to sit next to Keltham and quiz him if he seems amenable to quizzing about what kinds of things there are prediction markets for in dath ilan. Are there prediction markets for who the next Legislators will be. Are there prediction markets for which of all the lunch places in a city will be ruled the tastiest. Are there prediction markets for who in your class is best in bed.
Prediction markets for the next Legislators: Of course! Everyone gets to look at them except for the Representatives who actually have to redelegate their delegated votes to Legislators, who are generally asked by their own constituents not to look at those prediction markets to avoid circularity.
Prediction markets for restaurants being tasty: You could subsidize a tiny market on a prediction on whether a restaurant will be tasty to you, as you'll rate the meal afterwards, and some... tiny golems possibly?? belonging to some kind of rich merchant entity that only buys and sells predictions?? will fight it out among themselves to predict your rating. It's not clear what it would mean for a restaurant to be tastiest in general.
Prediction markets for who in your class is best in the cuddleroom: It's much harder to guess how somebody will rate somebody else's cuddleroom skills, especially while you're young enough to be in classes and there's not much data on you. A restaurant has lots more customers and ratings that the prediction-trading merchants get to see. Most cuddleroom encounters aren't rated at all! You could obviously subsidize a personal rating prediction on a sex worker just like a restaurant, that's almost exactly analogous.
When it comes to dating people who aren't sex workers, that's more a case of, not so much asking your friends for recommendations, as your friends betting with each other on how you'll rate somebody after having dated them. A 'recommendation' isn't falsifiable and quantifiable the same way.
Keltham can guess that's not how it works in Cheliax. How do people find the best date recommenders, is it just a matter of asking somebody else who recommended them a very good date?
(Keltham may possibly be trying to flirt back by keeping the topic on dating, potentially permitting slow deniable escalation towards common knowledge of interest? It's hard to read this because he's so alien.)
....mostly people just tell their friends who they find hot, and then their friends egg them on into asking them out/being conveniently vulnerable in their vicinity/whatever. It isn't very Chelish to seek assurance about how well it'll work out, first; it is generally believed that you learn useful things from the failures as much as the successes, at least at their age.
"I'm only a shy new second-circle wizard," she says. "All I can do to the fundamental forces of reality is make them summon a horse or spit glue at people or sneeze fire or make doors look open when they're closed or go invisible or fill rooms with sparkles or turn into someone else. When I'm a great and powerful wizard I will have a few more tricks up my sleeve."
(Not letting people play around with their new magic for seven years seems sort of pointlessly non-optimal anti-fun? Is this a Golarion Error or is there actually a good reason?)
"Little surprised and unnerved about invisibility being only a second-circle spell, though. Are there politeness codes about - not doing that? Rules? Or do people in wizard schools just have to run Detect Magic a lot?"
"- mostly there's nowhere in school where you'd expect to have privacy," Meritxell says after considering for a second whether this is also true in Taldor. "It'd be illegal to go invisibly into someone else's house or something, that's trespassing, but you can't trespass on a dorm that sleeps twelve."
"Here I imagine they've got the entire place ringed with Alarm spells that ping whenever anyone crosses them and Security that can see invisibility and - actually now that I've got Arcane Sight I bet I'd be able to see - not the invisible person, but the fact there was a spell, if they didn't have more powerful magic concealing it, which a real intruder probably would."
"Okay, so, it's not that you're hiding that you've all suddenly got Arcane Sight, I am apparently allowed to know if the topic comes up, everyone except Ione and Pilar is not pretending to cast Detect Magic while they're watching Carissa construct her incredibly impressive scaffold, it's just that this thing happened and nobody is mentioning it to me even though I am authorized to know it."
"- so the reason it comes with perks at all is because you get the perk from the specific devil who you are selling your soul to, in exchange for joining their organization on your death. And setting aside whether children ought to be allowed to promise that, a random child's soul isn't going to be - valuable enough they can get a powerful permanent magical boon from selling it. Mostly you actually wait until you're older than us and more powerful, at the perfect balance between how much you can get for your soul and how long you'll have to enjoy it, but."
"Sorry about that, then, if apologies are appropriate here. It seems like the sort of thing for which you should get compensation, if there's a more powerful version of Arcane Sight you're locked out of, because you were working on a dangerous project. Or do the contracts come with a buyback option?"
"Actually I also don't understand why this project is dangerous enough for that if, like, resurrections, also afterlives in the first place."
"Someone else might get to us first," Meritxell says flatly. "If you die normally, you go into the River of Souls, and you go all the way to the Boneyard, where you're judged and sorted, and then you go to Hell, and get magically dumped at a random location in Avernus, the first layer. And Hell has pretty good infrastructure for moving people from Avernus on, but still, you're going to be sort of cut off from comms for a while, potentially weeks. Potentially you get held up in the Boneyard because Pharasma doesn't like to hold trials for people who are obviously going to be resurrected. And while you're in that situation, if you get a raise, you take it, and you have no way of knowing for sure if it's Cheliax sending it. You can tell the alignment of the person offering to raise you, but..Zon-Kuthon's followers are also Lawful Evil. If you're in a known location in Hell, you're safe, your secrets are safe, Cheliax can call ahead and confirm the Raise being offered is ours..."
"Understood, thanks for explaining."
Probability that Carissa just cannot manage to make this arrangement for some weird reason or another... let's say... 20%? It's just that, if everybody else in the harem has now verified their allegiance... he should check that assumption, though.
"Is there a Security process that makes sure, when someone does this, or says they've done it, that they've actually made a deal with Asmodeus's people and not Zon-Kuthon's?"
"....when we sell our souls?" Meritxell says. "Yes, it was done with Security supervision from a list of devils maintained by the Church of Asmodeus. I'm not even sure you can sell your soul to Zon-Kuthon, though, gods, that'd be awful."
"We didn't get worse Arcane Sight, we got the standard," Gregoria says. "The project didn't force us to sell our souls for less, they made our souls valuable enough for a standard sale a decade early."
"I think Hell is a lot better run than Cheliax," Carissa says dryly. "By the way, can I come when you go ask pointed questions of the site manager, it's not really any of my business but I think it'll be really funny and maybe inspire me to grow up and build Civilization."
"If you think that's safe career-wise."
He frankly did not need this as a Thing to Worry About.
...well, the same logic that says that any of this would be true in the first place, also says that Carissa is the First Girl, and therefore, out of all the girls here, the one who's guaranteed to have a pathway leading to a happy outcome for the two of them. So if she's a Zon-Kuthon cleric unknown to even herself, it'll be a solvable problem.</optimistic rationalization>
"It is a fourth circle spell that finds a person and shows you them and their surroundings, which you can also hear. Somewhat restricted - it won't be in your basic book of magic - because you can use it to spy on people, but it's also essential for most military operations, so it's not top secret like effective enchantments are." They considered hiding this one from Keltham but keeping him and them unscryable is a major constraint at this point and because of the one-hour casting time they can manage plenty of deception with it. "I am not gonna use it to creep on my ex, though it did occur to me I could use it to get a remote tour of the world, if we can pay someone to go teleport to and then walk through other countries and be scryable for us while they do it."
"Yeah, it hasn't escaped my notice that I made it to an incredible new world and have, you know, been moving around a number of tightly secured indoor rooms since then. I mean, not that this is in any way the wrong decision, but if it drags on a few years I might start to feel slightly annoyed."
Keltham's brain, which has apparently been running a separate subthread this whole time, notes that Carissa sure seems to be a lot into pain, and that he currently has only Carissa's word for how normal of a sexuality that is in Cheliax.
Message to Carissa: I notice you came back with a fancier headband, speaking of Fox's Cunning. Is that a safe public topic?
This is an unpleasant surprise for Carissa too but she'll be on standby to consult.
Ah. Fuck.
....Keltham's going to conclude there's a Suspicious Reason she can't sell her soul. Probably best handling of that is for her to fake selling her soul as soon as possible, rather than for them to lie about how often it fails. (Or really sell it? The order from Asmodeus said 'not this day', maybe it's supposed to be this day instead for some reason.)
Reassuring, but still. Keltham doesn't know if Jacint has been briefed at all on 'tropes', but Keltham registers to her the prediction, 30% probability (he's updated after more thought) that something will mysteriously go wrong when Carissa tries to make her afterlife arrangement.
And if that happens he would like Cheliax to check her for being a hidden cleric. Yes, again. Right away. This plan is still not going to work, somehow or other, but Keltham doesn't know what else to try at that point.
If her afterlife arrangements get made successfully, then - assuming afterlife arrangements couldn't work with somebody having a split personality one side of which is a Zon-Kuthon plant that the other side doesn't know about - everything he just said can be safely ignored. Which, on Jacint's priors, should happen 19 times out of 20, or 49 times out of 50. So really, on the view that seems normal, there shouldn't be much chance of this contingency arising in the first place, right.
All of this should be reported to Keltham as priority interrupt, given either possible outcome. Carissa being unable to sell her soul is 10 times as likely if that 'trope' is in play, and makes that 'trope' 10 times likelier once observed.
Keltham is under the impression that one should not engage wizards in conversation while they are preparing spells! Thus, he should not resume conversation with for example Meritxell. This will probably take a while?
He'll gawk for a bit with Detect Magic, and then maybe see what policy is about engaging Securities in conversation while they're on-duty.
"I'm actually wondering a bit about - some books mentioned scrolls, which sound like single-use casts, I've been keeping some of my own slots full with various emergency or contingency spells. Like an Early Judgment for an emergency emotional stability restoration, or Sending in case I get successfully lost somehow, or kidnapped without being spellblocked."
"If I'm loading as many Owl's Wisdoms as possible tomorrow, it'd be useful to have, for example, an Early Judgment single-use and Sending single-use, so that my emergency contingencies aren't occupying my actual spellslots. Probably also requires something to carry them in, if they aren't quite small."
It takes fresh wizard students at least a year to learn first-circle spells, but they are typically significantly younger, and don't often have an Arcane-Sight aided illusion so they can see exactly what they're doing, and ones as smart as him are awfully rare. He doesn't have it quite down by the time the girls are done preparing their spells but he's getting tantalizingly close.
So since experience has suggested that people will not just tell Keltham things he might want to know, without him asking:
Is there such a thing as a one-use item of Sending which doesn't need scroll-reading to work?
Is there a way to take an Owl's Wisdom that would hit one person, and pay a reasonable amount of resources, and make it hit twelve people? Or two people?
Is there a way Keltham can store a cleric spell and make it go off later without it still occupying a slot?
Is there anything people do to get more spell slots?
1) No one has heard of such a magic item and they wouldn't expect it to exist, Sending's the kind of spell that's hard to make into a magic item.
2) Mass Owl's Wisdom is sixth circle but it does exist and would get all the girls at once. The High Priestess can have it tomorrow.
3) No, short of building a magic item that casts that cleric spell, which does among other steps involve casting the spell into the item.
4) Over time wizards notice efficiencies and can eke out more spells. Clerics tend to get more spells from their god as they rise in their god's service. That's about it.
Does it happen to be the case that - possibly only after his relationship with Carissa deepens enough - he can collaborate with her in a way where she makes most of the Sending or Early Judgment item and Keltham casts the spell into it?
(It's been repeatedly mentioned how good Carissa is at enchanting items, this should play a role in the eroLARP somehow. </trope-thinking>)
"Casters can collaborate on a magic item that requires multiple spells, if they don't individually have all the spells to make it. It usually comes up if an item requires something only clerics get and something only wizards get - Sending isn't that, wizards get it too, though Early Judgment is. The problem with an item of Sending is that it has a ten minute casting time and then takes input from the caster, both of those things make a spell harder to lay in an item. I can try, if you want. I'd need a crash course in wondrous items."
"...weapons enchanter, right. But, arguendo, Early Judgment is touch-targeted and cast quickly, so you should be able to make a Small Poking Needle of Early Judgment, right? If it's a" mentalisticmagic "conceptual thingy, you could also imagine that as a weapon that distracts somebody during combat. Also it doesn't have to do it unboundedly many times, doing it once or maybe three times would be enough."
"Yours is practically trivial, you'd just have to cast it once a day when I say when. I think it's the kind of thing where if I was working from an existing prototype it'd be 3000gp in spellsilver, maybe less, but the general rule of thumb is that it's at least double that to invent something you haven't seen before. Probably a couple weeks of work."
"Almost definitely not worth that much of your time, alas."
Also, in retrospect he did not think of this quickly enough, 'poky thing that gives you a deeply emotional and possibly addicting experience each time you stab yourself with it' is potentially a bad thing to invent into Golarion or have around even for himself. That's not trope reasoning, it's pattern recognition in general.
"Cost of one scroll, and how long does it probably take me to learn to cast from scrolls?"
"Scrolls sound like obviously the way to go then, unless they cost a huge amount."
Message: Carissa, I have an increasingly bad feeling about your lack of afterlife arrangement, if there's any 'trope' in play at all that's leaving an opening for something interesting to happen to you before you make it into the safer parts of Hell. Can we go have that talk right now?
"Carissa, I think you have not fully updated on your environment becoming as improbable as yours has become. You met somebody at the Worldwound who's not supposed to exist in Golarion or be alive at all, his shiny new project has god-wars starting around it, Cayden Cailean taps Pilar with candy powers and sends her to Elysium, and then the Queen decides to go on a date with you."
"You may think it's safe to leave your afterlife arrangements hanging for an additional hour, because probably nothing is going to happen in an hour."
"I think we should expedite that process to its maximum reasonable speed."
"Not rush it and risk making errors, to be clear. Just because a lot of improbable things have happened, doesn't mean particular improbable things will happen. I was wrong about Asmodia coming back with superpowers. Part of the doom of being unsure if you recognize a pattern, is when the pattern seems so much easier to call after the fact than in advance, and that's a sign of the phenomenon maybe not being real."
"But even leaving aside everything about 'tropes', there's a sense in which it feels stupid to leave open a vulnerability like that. We have adversaries. Other gods may be our adversaries. We don't get to assume statistically normal probabilities of adverse events, because smart enemy actors may be trying to force them as outcomes upon reality, using pathways we cannot visualize in toto."
"If your afterlife arrangements are pending a conversation you'd like us to have, we should have that conversation. If there's any slowness in the process for doing this under the Church of Asmodeus's supervision, where you can't just walk into Jacint's office and say it's time, we should schedule that as soon as possible, do the scheduling step before the conversation."
She prepared so many lies about this! "So, the normal arrangement that, say, Asmodia made when she graduated from school, or that Meritxell would've made yesterday, is that your soul, on death, becomes the property of a devil in Hell, one you picked out in advance based on good reviews and an organization you're interested in joining. When you die, you go to that devil, and they're responsible for orienting you, housing you, clothing you, training you, all of that, at which point you work in their organization until you've paid off the services provided. They can't make you work, obviously, but if you go work somewhere else while you have an outstanding contract, they get your pay from wherever you do end up working.
Obviously devils compete on - how cheaply they can help you, so the size of the debt ends up being small, and how valuable the work you'll be doing is, so you'll be able to pay back your debt very quickly, and how nice the living and working conditions are, and how interesting the work is. My plan was always to be a weapons enchanter in Dis. It'll take me a long time to get oriented - magic works differently there, I won't be able to pick up where I left off when alive. But I'll be very valuable once I'm sorted, so I should be able to get a good deal, I'm not worried about that.
It just - occurs to me as the sort of thing where you might prefer I not be owned by someone else."
The gist of what Keltham is currently trying to convey:
Dath ilan has a notion of two people promising-not-swearing to each other to be together even in the Future, when they come back.
This is literally as far as a relationship can possibly escalate.
It is well past having multiple children together and raising them to maturity.
It is well past staying together for a few decades after that.
It is moderately past synchronizing your cryosuspension arrangements so that it happens when one person feels sort of overdue and the other person feels a bit of regret about leaving earlier; because more than any of that, they want to finish out all of their first lives together, and not be alone, nor leave the other alone, even for just a year.
People who say this to each other sometimes break up only twenty years later; and that is statistically more common than the breakup of couples who just semipromised they'd be together for the rest of their first lives, with intent to think things over together when they actually got to the Future. For this to happen to you is one of the more social-epistemic-reputation-affecting errors you can make in the realm of relationships, predicting a relationship will last twenty thousand years when it doesn't last twenty.
No far prediction market has ever put more than a 70% chance on a promise like this, a promise upon the Future, holding up; and that's as of when the two go into cryosuspension together still unbroken. Usually before you had a kid, you'd want more like 85% out of a prediction market saying you wouldn't rate that as the wrong decision retrospectively; likewise before you started talking socially about your two-decade monogamy compact like it was going to be a real thing and not just a fond aspiration.
People who say this is what they mean to do, and whose dignity calls on them to accept questions and objections, are typically asked if they've considered that maybe the Future could run vastly superior matching algorithms on available mates, and have qualitatively different and better potential mates who'd still be interested in an Ancient.
It's an obvious thought, isn't it? And yet even so, some dath ilani look at each other and smile and say they've got it good enough, and would rather hold none of themselves back from the promise that they make to each other. They don't need to worry about what future opportunities they might be passing up, or whether their lives would be objectively better if they made a different decision, or if it's really honest to make somebody else a promise like that when the statistics and prediction markets say what they do. Because they just don't need to let that sway them, that's why not.
A majority of Civilization mostly thinks those people seem crazy from a standpoint of expected utility maximization, but, at the same time, has a lot of respect for that. The kind of respect you give to somebody when you wonder, deep down, if maybe they're doing it right, and you're the ones doing it wrong.
That said, Carissa is also right that the notion of somebody else 'owning her soul', even if they don't own her, does not sit well with this new gendertrope that has always been inside Keltham.
And they're living in a world of low probability, and Keltham does not want to close off the prospect of their relationship escalating that far in time.
"One thing that comes to mind - and it might take some searching to find a devil who'll agree to this - is an arrangement where you own an option on my soul? And right now if I die I go to the devil I'm contracted with, but you can, at any future point, call in your option, if you decide that you want to, at some later point when we know each other better and you have a bunch of operations in Hell."
Luckily, they have to do the part with the devil outside the Forbiddance since you can't summon an outsider into one; that means there's an ironclad excuse for Keltham not to be present for it. Carissa is hoping that the reason for the instruction that she is not to sell her soul this day is in fact that she's meant to do this, as part of seducing Keltham to Evil. If not, though, and they still won't buy her soul, she wants to draw up a very real contract giving Keltham a very real option on her soul, which avoids specifying that it is presently owned by Hell, which she and he will sign. And then claim that it worked but the option makes it much less valuable so she doesn't get the perks, to explain the lack of Permanent Arcane Sight.
Unless to the High Priestess's awareness this is a stupid plan, in which case she can just tell them that options like that don't exist to her knowledge.
...no, that's impressively clever, Chosen of Asmodeus. They shall need to consult a devil whether or not her soul is saleable this day, to make sure the language of this new contract is enforceable and valid, but the High Priestess expects it is doable.
Is it your will that this be done at once?
The only cause to delay Carissa can see is selfish, that she can't easily be made to do this and it's not clearly in her interests - sort of the dilemma of whether it was pathetic or noble of her to sign Contessa Lrilatha's contract without enough time to read it, given that it was what Asmodeus wanted but also that it's not Asmodeus's job to make doing what He wants non-catastrophic for her. But on this Asmodeus has specific instructions, that she is to serve Him well and come to Him in Hell without thought of other choices and be treasured, and okay maybe she's not living up to that instruction just yet since she clearly had that thought process but she thinks she's being told that it is Asmodean, in this case, to serve without thought for her own interests. (Does that sound right?)
Anyway, yes, it should be done at once.
Jacint informs Keltham that this process must needs be carried out beyond the Forbiddance, since devils may not be summoned here; and it seems obviously unwise that Keltham step outside the Forbiddance without great need.
Aside from that, it can be done right now. Though Carissa will probably come back bearing a compact regarding the option on her, for Keltham to sign, which must needs be signed before the devil signs with her, for obvious reasons.
Somebody's going to have to explain the language of the contract to Keltham, pretty darned carefully, especially if this is being done in a way where he's not getting Contessa Lrilatha's assurance about the compact being designed without intent to cause unforeseen consequences. Please factor that delay into account.
Message to Jacint: And furthermore Keltham needs Jacint's personal assurance on a level falling barely short of Abaddon-oath, that Keltham not being there is absolutely not going to allow any pathway through time however improbable where, somehow, it looks like Carissa sold her soul, but actually she didn't, and also after that nobody ran the additional check on whether she was a hidden cleric, or the check happened to a disguised double of Carissa or something.
Split-second deputy's decision: This seems like a safe assurance to give Keltham, it should not hurt Cheliax to run that additional check on Carissa.
Actually if Carissa tried to forbid that, Jacint herself would start to feel nervous at that point.
Return Message: I do so promise.
Keltham will find something else to do with himself, he supposes.
(The first Pending Thing not requiring the full harem, that came to mind, was resuming flirting with Meritxell. Would that be inappropriate? That's possibly inappropriate, right? Maybe he should just continue trying to read things.)
They haven't had a lot of time and haven't spent much of it on the decor in here, where Keltham won't see it; the temple itself is done well enough to honor Asmodeus, in black stone that must have been laid by magic because stoneworkers can't work that fast, but the rest just looks like a repurposed fortress, thick undecorated stone walls and floors with periodic magic torches, slightly overcrowded with support staff not cleared to meet Keltham.
The staff here stares less than at the palace, either because they're more professional or have heard less ridiculous things about Project Lawful girls. They do get out of her way.
Message anyways, just to be sure:
I need to send a message to Gorthoklek and receive a return message and verifiable authorization from him, with the literal absolute minimum of people who are not myself and Gorthoklek knowing that a message was exchanged between us, and literally nobody except the two of us knowing the contents of that exchange. Advise me on protocols.
This priest has been warned that Project Lawful is ridiculous, no, more ridiculous than that, no, you're not prepared for how ridiculous, but this is somewhat more ridiculous than he expected. This girl's file doesn't even suggest that she's at all one of the interesting ones!
"....ah," he says. "Hmmm. On what timescale do you need to send your message."
"If you wanted this done as quickly as possible I would have you impersonate me and request a Teleport to, uh, the front in Nidal, where you could get in Telepathy range of him with your request; the primary costs there are not in privacy but in your safety. If we have more time, I'd make a secret request for his whereabouts and notify you once he's neither at the front, where you'd be in danger, nor in the palace, where an attempt at impersonation would be noticed instantly, and have someone convey you-as-me there."
"I see. That sounds like it requires a longer and more visible absence of myself from Project Lawful than I'd hoped for."
"Possibilities and costs around sealed written message to him marked his-eyes-only, with only your name on it in capacity as comms officer, minimum awareness of that event, sealed reply addressed to yourself and returned to me?"
"It'd be less interesting and less likely to be intercepted. Next expected Teleport would be...this evening, probably, to deliver daily reports by hand. If Gorthoklek is there to receive it, there might be a return reply immediately, otherwise I would expect a reply tomorrow morning or at latest evening."
The tricky part is not knowing what resources, such as Teleports, she is allowed to expend in the name of keeping her seal secret.
She thinks that so long as the message is on the way, she can probably manage.
"That seems better. I have family members in the process of being relocated by Security," since maybe somebody interesting will try to kidnap them, "and I believe that should serve as a good cover for you to notify me that a message is waiting for me, when a return message arrives. Affirm or deny."
"Are there any obvious flaws to you in this arrangement? Do not assume that I am fully familiar with all the details of these workings; if I was, I wouldn't have needed to ask this much."
Something about the way she's phrasing that feels like dath ilani influence... well, that's not necessarily a bad thing.
"Very well."
Asmodia writes a message to Gorthoklek.
Due to her mortal imperfection, the Project Lawful girl whom Gorthoklek should recently have been told about as having returned with a secret, has not been able to conceal all signs of having a secret from people who could potentially inquire into it, including particularly the project leader.
This Project Lawful girl now requests an authorization from Gorthoklek she can show to such people telling them to not inquire further and not talk about her or about the existence of that instruction, with literally anyone; and an authorization she can show to somebody to instruct them to not further propagate any information that she has leaked or will leak; and/or such other authorizations as Gorthoklek may deem good for her to have.
She doesn't sign it, folds it into a blank-looking rectangle of paper, and hands it to the cleric. "Seal as appropriate. Please make sure the person doing the Teleport understands that a new rumor about Project Lawful sending secret messages to Gorthoklek is not an outcome that would be desirable. To Gorthoklek."
"Good. If you meet me under other circumstances I'm no different from any other Project Lawful girl. We're done."
Asmodia turns around and walks out of the office.
She's got to hold it together at least until she reaches her bedroom, but, weirdly enough, she feels like she probably can.
"Security should leave," Carissa says to the High Priestess once they're outside the Forbiddance. "The conversation might touch on topics they're not cleared for."
Security doesn't object to this order but doesn't leave either; you're not supposed to leave someone alone once they've been told they're selling their soul, which is....apparently what's going on here?
Rumor has it that Project Lawful girls' souls are selling for exorbitant prices, in the markets of Dis. She'd be proud of that, but maybe only a tiny chance of successfully turning them into dath ilani is enough to justify the absurd prices; it's not a bet on her competence at the task ahead of her, just yet another indication of the stakes.
It does mean she should be able to get a devil on board with this deal even though it's not as good a deal for them as usual, though.
She's not actually sure what the fair price of a Chelish soul is, now that she thinks about it. Arguably it's not much, since they'll almost definitely go to Hell anyway. Though that's less true of the Project Lawful girls, who other gods keep stealing. How expensive is the cheapest way to corrupt souls to Evil, how much is a soul worth to Asmodeus in the sense of how much it costs him to get one? It might vary a lot by the soul.
What would happen if you demanded a Wish?
What would happen if you were Carissa Sevar, the name known to every contract devil who deals with Cheliax, and you demanded a Wish and Arcane Sight and a hundred pounds of spellsilver just for the rights to your soul if Keltham chooses not to exercise his option.
Probably the answer is that you'd get laughed at and then tortured but she almost wants to try it just to see.
She means to name the mightiest contract devil whose name she knows, one to whom other devils answer; the thought has occurred to Subirachs as well that Carissa Sevar is perhaps worth more than ordinary souls in their Lord's sight. It is not clear that Hell's profit should be protected at the expense of Sevar's pride. On the other hand, if that thought hasn't occurred to Sevar herself, she may deserve no better. But she will at least bring forth a devil worthy of negotiation.
"Glosialabolas, come forth and bargain." So speaks the High Priestess of Asmodeus, Jacint Subirachs.
He doesn't trouble with ceremony until he knows this is even worth his time. Anybody worth his time to bargain with won't be impressed by a little extra fire on arrival. He's also busy and trying to impress mortals is mostly beneath him.
"Who has the temerity and why should I bother?" he says, not troubling himself to add any threats.
"I am Carissa Sevar." She doesn't bother explaining; he ought to know, or at least she intends to give the impression he ought to know. "There is a mortal who desires to possess an option on my soul, sold otherwise to Hell, and if you are permitted to bargain for my soul at all you will have it until or unless he claims that option. Are you so permitted?"
Glosialabolas thinks the Infernal equivalent of "HOLY SHIT".
He knows by now, of course, as does most of Dis, that Carissa Sevar already got her first reply, the one telling her not to sell her soul that day, which has invited a lot of speculation about possible other days. It's obvious that she would be the prize to own if you could. But they haven't received any clarification from their superiors about whether -
"I am not sure there is a soul alive of higher value to Hell, and if there is, it is the mortal I am in the middle of delivering to Asmodeus and who wants the option on my soul, which, if he exercises it, will bring him to Our Lord.
I propose an equal split of the gains from this trade, and will reject lesser splits with a probability corresponding to how disproportionately they reserve the gains for you, such that you can't actually do better by pretending to underrate me, but we'll still work something out with high probability if we honestly disagree, paid in Wishes and spellsilver above and beyond the ordinary payment of permanent Arcane Sight. ...and permanent Tongues."
...first of all, mortals aren't supposed to know about any of that, however garbled and incomplete it sounds, and second, if they stumble over a piece of it, you're supposed to shut them down hard and refuse to bargain for their soul and ideally let them get executed by Cheliax.
Carissa Sevar will not be executed if he refuses her; so much seems obvious from the lack of others present to watch her, saving one Priestess who is looking more at him than at her.
But if he's reading Carissa Sevar right, she doesn't know. Or she doesn't know numbers.
They wouldn't have summoned him to negotiate if they had even a beginning guess at Carissa Sevar's worth; he's not a Count of Hell.
"That is not the way of Hell," he rumbles. "Asmodeus is not Abadar, little mortal, no matter what company you have been keeping of late. You can try to hold what secrets you like, and Hell will keep its own, and whoever is closer to Asmodeus in wit and ways is the one to win the compact. Name to me the price you seek for yourself."
Of course.
She's tempted to say 'there has to be some devil that will accept that the price of bargaining with me includes this; get me that one'. But there doesn't have to be any such devil. To be a devil is to be perfected, at least along that angle, and apparently perfected in Lawful Evil you don't have any interest in that. Like how Contessa Lrilatha hates Keltham's good faith clause.
But she wasn't refused outright, despite offering something objectively worth much less than a normal contract.
"Then," she says, "speaking informally to establish the terms for a contract not yet written, for three Wishes, and ten pounds of spellsilver, and permanent Arcane Sight and permanent Tongues, I offer my soul, subject to the option for a mortal to claim it which was previously discussed."
Glosialabolas thinks the equivalent of "Heck yes, fucking score" in Infernal. It's a large chunk of her (current) likely fair price, but nowhere close to all of it. And while he can't deliver three Wishes, he can sell his choice of which devil he'll bring back to compact with Carissa Sevar.
"Hmpfh. I would have to bring forth a superior devil to make such a bargain, if they proved willing to make it at all, at some trouble to myself for one not receiving your soul in the end. Nor has it been made known to Dis whether you are this day permitted to sell your soul, and the question might need to be referred far up the hierarchy, which is no trivial hazard of time and pride for myself to undergo."
"This mortal claim. Say more of it."
She is having the same realization. Maybe she should've asked for more, but. What does Hell believe, such that they'd even contemplate -
"Hell keeps its secrets, and I'll keep mine. The option should grant the mortal the real right to, at any time, exercise the option and make my soul his own, his right acknowledged by all of Hell the same as the right of any great contract devil to the souls they have contracted for and purchased. It is acceptable for the exercise to involve the payment of some fixed compensation to the soul's previous owner. No commitments need be made about the soul's state, beyond that it'll be extant, and its owner while the option has not been exercised will not compact to destroy it."
Is she sneaking that last bit in out of self-interest rather than because Keltham would even think to specify it, yes she is, though she's not entirely conscious of this even as she does it.
A fixed compensation! The prices are still fluctuating in the markets of Dis, and even demanding thrice the original payment would not suffice to protect the asset if it increases still further.
But that, he can hardly say to Carissa Sevar; some other excuse must be found to reject the term.
"The mortal is not here, party to this contract though you seemingly intend him to be. Are you hiding things from him, I wonder? And if so, I wonder, do you wish him to see a compact plainly mentioning some exercise price substantially greater than three Wishes and ten pounds of spellsilver? For we are not in the habit of reselling at no gain."
He can't just suggest a term about market prices though, or a price reflecting lost gains to the devil who must sell; that will make it too obvious what's really going on.
"It doesn't serve Asmodeus for the price to be so high he can't exercise it and turn Evil, so I can't let you peg it at that. Five hundred thousand would cover the Wishes and the spellsilver and a generous profit, and there are considerable benefits from having owned me even for a time, if I spend any of it dead so you can learn them."
"Not the way of Hell bargaining for a soul, Carissa Sevar."
"But... perhaps the way of Hell seeking to corrupt another soul even more valuable to our Lord, if he is as you say."
Devils do serve the interests of Asmodeus; it is the way that they have been remade.
"I must consult with my superiors upon all this matter, and return to you. I will write you the compact to take to the mortal; it will be well for him to sign, or so it would seem, even if we are not yet permitted to bargain with you or your price finds no takers. Have you thoughts upon wise and cunning terms therein?"
"The aim is not to conceal things from him that require great intelligence or paranoia to notice; he has both, and we don't wish him to train either. The aim is to state in plain language the Evil he is eager to arrange for himself to do, stated so plainly that it does not occur to him it describes anything that ought to trouble him. Risks to his rights or his bank account he'll be looking for; risks to his Goodness he won't. He has claimed me as his possession in this life, and if he seeks to exercise the option it'd be for the same reason; because it inspires envy in him, to know that a part of what I am - a small part, he believes - is given forever to another, that they will have rights over me that mustn't shock his conscience but that can be permitted to stir his jealousy.
I'll need to review it. People not accustomed to dealing with him make mistakes."
"The thought occurs to me that you might, perhaps, wish to sell him that option upon yourself. It will not suffice to damn him, but it will be a start."
"The thought occurs to me that you might wish to make the option annullable by your returning of that payment to him, if he has not already exercised it. While I do not know all your plans, I know that mortals often change them. Perhaps you will find yourself plotting to execute a different compact with him in the future."
Keltham will be comfortable with that; Carissa is surprised that Hell recommends it. "I will bear that in mind." Actually, 'I asked the devil and he said he'd ask other devils for takers on the general contract, but said I should sell you, not give you, your option' will make Keltham feel positively about devils.
He is not unmindful of Sevar's advantage over this mortal, if she serves Hell's interest more, and the terms he suggested are advantageous ones to her in future negotiations. He will take what he can from Sevar for Hell; taking from her to advantage a non-Evil mortal is another matter.
"If you can seduce him to unmake and re-sign a different compact every three moons, on some excuse and tale of Hell's changing conditions, that will suffice to damn him before nine seasons pass - if he otherwise acts not for Good or Evil. Remember me well in your reports, if it proves so."
Glosialabolas sets forth to design a compact so simple that it almost pains him. Almost. The devils of contracts do understand the concept of not overcomplicating and calling attention to a sting that requires neither attention nor complication. At the core of all of this is that the mortal is suspicious of prices, rights, terms, conditions, but not that the very act of what he is doing is great Evil.
When he is done, Glosialabolas presents a compact to Carissa Sevar for an option upon her soul.
She doesn't say thank you, because that would be ridiculous. She reads through it, suggests a few small revisions to make it more like Lrilatha when she's trying to impress Keltham with the clarity and trustworthiness of her contract-writing, hands it back. Doesn't say anything aloud about it; devils are sensitive about being obliged to write honest contracts.
"He'll ask, also, whether as I was taught I demanded reassurance that the terms of the contract conceal, to your knowledge, no clever traps and no terms with unexpected negative consequences for those who sign it. I think the unexpected negative consequence is not in the terms, and for precisely that reason will escape his notice, and if that's so I would convey your assurance of it."
"...it would do grave damage to the interests of Hell if it ever became believed that devils, asked such a thing, would not simply and absolutely refuse to bargain."
"Perhaps you know more of our Lord's workings here than I. But can you truly assure me that this mortal's soul is worth the risk to Hell's reputation?"
By her soul's tilt she is being honest. Glosialabolas thinks the equivalent of "Okay then, but still, the HECK?" in Infernal.
He amends another term or two and hands back the compact again. "Tell the mortal that Glosialabolas, who made this compact, guaranteed this: The deed that results from this contract's signing and its execution, will be as I expect that he will expect. As for the consequences of the deed itself, time will show it."
Why yes, it is pushing it.
"Do not presume to rise above your given station. You are not as yet the least of devils, whatever your soul's price to those who are."
"In three hours' time as it passes in Golarion, I will return to this place, perhaps in company if your price finds a taker or a bargainer, and if our Lord's will is in accordance this day. Be there or be bereft."
Glosialabolas turns then at an angle, to return to Hell. He has a most urgent plea for clarification to file, to his master and his master's masters.
Also, is he supposed to actually tell anyone in Golarion about the unfinished cleric thing.
"Your will, Chosen of Asmodeus." It sounds exactly as sincere as before; the one who says it was not previously a poor faker.
Subirachs has an urgent report to make to the Grand High Priestess's secretary regarding what Carissa Sevar's price is not obviously not, and also report the promise Subirachs made to Keltham regarding a test to run on Sevar if her soul cannot be sold for any reason.
Carissa walks sedately and responsibly with her contract until she's nearly at Keltham's room, and then skips gleefully; she feels gleeful and she can't think of any reason to hide it with Keltham! Three Wishes!! Enough spellsilver for every project she can conceive of!!!!
Knock knock.
"Hey! I have a contract with an option on my soul for you. Though, uh, the devil who wrote it for me said that I should not give you the option for free. Just as I wouldn't sell my soul for free, right - the consideration lends it dignity - this isn't an offer I make you expecting nothing in return but to see what becomes of me, it's a deal."
"Here you go." Contract. "And no, the appointment where I settle the Hell side of it is in three hours. The devil I got would've been perfectly adequate if I were a fourth-circle caster at the Worldwound looking to make arrangements as a magic item enchanter when she died, but now I'm way more valuable and will actually need a higher-seniority devil who's authorized to make more expensive kinds of deals. Which in hindsight makes sense - being on Project Lawful made the other girls as valuable as a wizard a decade older and more experienced and powerful than them, so it makes me very valuable. Though the option decreases the value considerably, which I guess you can compensate me for."
Keltham reads the contract.
The option itself costs 500gp for him to purchase, and wants him to pay 500,000gp if at some future point he'd like to own Carissa's soul.
This does not particularly square with the amount Keltham is expecting that Carissa is getting in exchange for her soul today, going on some past prices he's been quoted.
"Wait, I'm supposed to pay 500,000 gold pieces for you? I bet the devil who's buying you today isn't paying anything remotely like that. Are you conniving with this devil to make a profit off me here? Who says you're even worth that?"
Keltham tries to say this sternly. How's Carissa's Sense Motive doing against Keltham's Bluff?
Part of him wants to optimize the part where, apparently, whatever devil signs this contract just gets all that money, but eh. It's just 500,000gp at some point into the far future of their relationship.
"Well, think no less of me if I don't sign your very romantic contract upon the spot. I do need to check the terms. I don't suppose you asked the devil about unexpected unpleasantness? Should've actually asked explicitly for you to do that."
"I did, I asked if any of the terms would have unexpected unpleasant effects, and he said, 'Tell the mortal that Glosialabolas, who made this compact, guaranteed this: The deed that results from this contract's signing and its execution, will be as I expect that he will expect. As for the consequences of the deed itself, time will show it.'"
"Well, they do them, I guess."
Keltham reads the contract, carefully; he has not actually heard a Lawful being pronounce it safe, only heard Carissa say that this was told to her.
...It would be legit pretty hard for this contract to hurt Keltham, though, there just aren't any sentences that talk about Keltham needing to do anything.
Except for the section that says the option can be voided if Carissa returns the 500gp to him before it can be exercised. But even that section is just talking about something that happens to the contract, not something that happens to Keltham.
It would be an entirely unacceptable clause for a regular financial contract. If the option goes up in price, the option purchase just gets reversed at the other party's will?? Part of Keltham's brain is repeatedly pointing at this and trying to yell about it what a bad deal it is.
The larger Keltham understands the message of the term perfectly well: Sure, you can have her Future, if and only if she still wants you.
"Be it clear that I know perfectly well that it was the devil, rather than you, who suggested to you, or more accurately, told you, to include the term of this option where you can give me back the price I paid in order to nullify the option," Keltham says aloud. "And then argued with you about it. And finally told you that he wasn't executing the compact unless that term was in it exactly the way he put it down."
"It's not an escape route for you. It's an escape route for a different person named Carissa Sevar who might exist in fifty years. Mortals probably look pretty changeable from a devil's perspective. You can't expect them to know that all time-slices of you will be as one person in this, even if that's how the future plays out."
Keltham will ask for a lot of detailed explanations of a lot of detailed terms.
And then measure out 500gp of value, mostly in platinum in this case, from that small hoard he now has.
(It's actually a bit painful! His legible asset balance just went down by a factor of 6! It would be less painful if he had knowable repeatable ways of earning more! But considering that he got this money by renting out Carissa, his brain rather needs to shut up about his legible asset balance. The remaining 100gp is, in fact, exactly that amount he demanded and was paid for going through the etiquette lessons.)
He offers the money to Carissa.
Just in case he wants to spend forever together with her, at some future point.
It actually feels kind of stupid, that this shifts Keltham's alignment. Not that she didn't already believe that the system was kind of stupid, but - they haven't made ...any progress, really.... on corrupting Keltham in the sense that matters, in the sense of making him someone who thinks like Asmodeus and will thrive in Hell. He still wants her to be happy, he's still pleased about the escape route, he's still-
Lawful Neutral. The kind of agent he wants to be negotiating with is in Axis.
There is, Carissa realizes as she beams at him, possibly nothing she can do about that. It might be that she can only make him Pharasmin-Evil and not make him Asmodean-Evil and - it feels like a situation where accomplishing part of her objectives is worse than accomplishing none of them, a truly Asmodean Keltham would be an asset beyond imagining but one still Lawful Neutral in his heart -
- she cuts off that line of reasoning. She'll just have to persuade him of all Asmodeanism.
...but Keltham's smile fades, before too long, as he remembers a thought, which is all too often a hazard to the people of dath ilan.
"Snuggles after you actually successfully make afterlife arrangements," Keltham says. "I'm feeling too worried, deep down, until that part actually happens."
The possibility that Carissa has a hidden Zon-Kuthon cleric alternate personality is a bit of a moodkiller. His life would be so much easier if all of these increasingly conjunctively chained thoughts were ones he could just categorize as Statistically Unlikely Awfulness and move on.
Actually, dramatic-irony-wise, wouldn't signing a happy and beautifully symbolic contract like this make it a great time for something terrible to happen to Carissa just before her actual afterlife arrangements got made? There's hardly any author in dath ilan who would, if planning to have Carissa kidnapped in the next few hours, not have this beautiful emotional options contract get signed first. Only a Genre Savvy character's explicit awareness of the trope could possibly prevent that, because the author really can't do that so freely if the protagonist is a normal dath ilani and able to notice, and even then the protagonist would need to -
"On due reflection, I think the level of 'trope' alarm this entire situation is generating is sufficient that I literally don't want to let you out of my sight until the devil gets back," Keltham states. "I may entertain arguments that you be allowed to use the bathroom."
"I'd say that, once I understand Golarion better and have lived here longer, I'll maybe know better what can't happen. But I also remind you that your new standard of improbability needs to be, 'Is that less likely than a godwar starting' or 'Is that less likely than Cayden Cailean volunteering snacks catering for our project' because that is where you live now."
"...Enforce it how, pray tell?"
A roaring sound like the ocean has overtaken Sothis and is racing at top speed towards his eardrums in particular, and a sense of heat like he's tripped face-first into the Sun -
"We are occupied elsewhere," the pharaoh tells this petitioner, already unable to hear his voice, "and will speak to you later. Dismissed."
......you can buy options on souls? I didn't know you could buy options on souls!!
He doesn't expect a response on that; Abadar doesn't usually communicate with things that parse as words at all, and he suspects that it only happened this time because the words were in the contract.
Possibilities:
- the cleric wants to rescue the girl from Hell and can't afford it yet but expects he'll be able to someday?
- the cleric has been very much misled about any of what souls are, what contracts are, what gold pieces are, what options are, or who Carissa Sevar is
- the contract is meant to communicate with Us, because the cleric knows that when people formalize their intent and their preferences so, it's much clearer to You, and is asking You to protect Carissa Sevar. Who is she.
When Sevar and Subirachs reconvene to see if Sevar's soul will be salable, the Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus is also there.
There are many reasons for this, but mainly, because it is now also her duty to deal with 'tropes', as it is her duty to deal with gods. The degree to which Keltham has guessed that something might go wrong with this sale, which is far more probable than Keltham has any just reason to believe, is sufficient for Aspexia to consider what it is she must now do if a 'trope' is controlling this situation fully.
And if clarification from Hell is forthcoming, let her perhaps be present to hear it in person and even ask a question or two. Such as - if the Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus in Golarion is permitted to know as much - why exactly is Sevar's soul so valuable?
"Grand High Priestess," says Carissa, and takes out the contract which she and Keltham signed. "I represented it to Keltham that I'm going to get permanent Arcane Sight and have the rest paid out in spellsilver; he won't know how much spellsilver it ought to be and I think with assistance I could cast a Permanent Detect Magic instead to imitate. If I'm unable to sell my soul. Obviously I hope I'll just be able to sell my soul."
Aspexia has generated some such possibilities herself. "I have made some such advance arrangements should they be needed; Keltham will not expect you to tarry long here, and he may ask to see any such ability proven given all his suspicions."
"Another option in that same case is to claim that there is to be more payment later, with their ownership of your soul's indenture to be revoked if they cannot complete that payment within the year, but your afterlife arrangements are in place right now and safe."
"- I admit, I am somewhat concerned now about the consequences of what lies this lie must then imply. Will Keltham ask to speak with you, perhaps, see you scryed, if you are dead and not yet raised, expecting to see you comfortably in some safe Hell? There is much that can be done with illusion, and yet, I worry. Keltham is a little to us like a god is to a mortal, or sometimes a mortal to a god, in that it is hard for us to think of all the thoughts that he may think."
"Yes. I would almost advocate for being truthful with him, except that his theory is that if I'm unable to sell my soul it's because I'm a secret cleric of Zon-Kuthon, which does not seem useful for any of our goals and which we're sure is not what's going on here, whatever is."
He doesn't have another devil with him. Carissa feels - probably more disappointed than anyone has ever felt about not getting to sell their soul. She wanted her Wishes and her spellsilver and her Arcane Sight and her Tongues and her - not having to worry quite so much about being a heretic -
"I am under the impression that I do our Lord's work, serve our Lord's interests, and you will answer my questions in the service of our Lord's interests unless you have good reason to believe that Asmodeus desires me not to know a thing. Conduct your business, devil of contracts, my time is also valuable."
Without another word, Glosialabolas turns to Carissa Sevar. "It seems your soul may not yet be sold to us. It is, it seems, a good sign that you came to us more eagerly, this time, than upon your last. But there is yet some - affirmation, renunciation, that must be completed by someone, or with someone, and it is not of you alone, nor of Asmodeus alone, before Asmodeus gives you His leave. Our Lord is eager to have you; that much is clear."
There is an obvious guess here, but he is forbidden to tell Carissa Sevar if she does not know.
Then if he is to profit nothing from all this, let the next devil after him profit little more. He cannot tell Carissa Sevar outright; for of which things are forbidden to speak and to who, it is also forbidden to speak. But at suitable levels of abstraction over the secrets of secrets, it becomes permissible to hint.
"To answer your question fully is something that is forbidden," he tells then the importunate priestess. "But Carissa Sevar and her ilk, it is speculated by some in Dis, might prove apt at training petitioners or even devils."
To answer more than one such question is below the pride of Hell even for a priestess bent on their Lord's work, and so Glosialabolas now turns and turns again and departs Golarion empty-handed. At best there may come some future apportion of favor for the contract he wrote for Carissa Sevar and her mortal, if that seed ever bears its own fruit.
"Dis thinks we might do it," she whispers, very quietly, watching him go.
Might transform how devils are taught, figure out how to do it faster, make them better - make Law something they can wield like dath ilan can - or even better -
Yes, Asmodeus would pay three Wishes for that. He ought to pay a hundred Wishes for that, really, though she shouldn't get all of them to herself.
"I will now examine you immediately as Keltham was promised, Sevar. Stand fast."
The examination is much faster when the Grand High Priestess does it, than when Carissa last went through this process, but it is still not instant. She feels like some part of her is being poked, and maybe even this time like she can feel herself shrinking away.
"Done. The results are as expected. Should the question arise you may tell Keltham that you are no hidden cleric; though, if we are to pretend your soul has been sold this day, he should have no further reason to keep asking. For what it's worth, even taking into account all 'tropes', I do at this point truly disbelieve as strongly as any mortal may disbelieve in anything that there is any part of you which is a cleric of Zon-Kuthon."
"You may come with me momentarily, Sevar, to engage in such petty and expensive manipulations as are needed to give Permanent Detect Magic to one still of fourth-circle."
"Subirachs, a word before then."
"Subirachs. You failed the last time I tested you in matters such as these. And yet, as I have not failed to notice, you still aspire to the position of Most High."
"Answer me this riddle if you'd be considered again as a candidate for my crown. You have been told such as we know of 'tropes'. What should I have done if my examination had shown Sevar to be an unfinished cleric of a Lawful Neutral god?"
Subirachs does not, of course, panic. There is nothing particularly heretical about maneuvering early to be considered as a possible next Grand High Priestess if anything should happen to the current one; she has in fact not done the slightest thing to undermine Aspexia Rugatonn or bring her any danger.
"We should certainly not inform Keltham," Subirachs states. "He would then come to believe that 'tropes' govern."
The obvious answer is to have Sevar renounce her unwanted clerical allegiance - if Rugatonn's examination had really shown that just now, then Carissa would almost surely be unaware of it in truth, as Keltham predicted.
If the obvious answer and obvious reason were the true one, Aspexia Rugatonn would not have laid this down as a challenge to touch her crown.
"May be subject to unknown god-agreements which we should not so lightly trespass upon in our Lord's name," Subirachs states. "One also observes that Sevar is less than perfectly disentangled from Keltham, and that, if she herself knows that 'tropes' govern her, she may not be able to conceal her newfound belief from Keltham."
Aspexia slaps her hard across the face, more of a rebuke than a punishment. "You are aping my ways and comprehending none of them. If you cannot surpass the test, know your place and say so. You are not ready to lay eyes upon my crown, Subirachs, and at this rate you never will be."
There isn't actually anyone worthy of Rugatonn's crown except Rugatonn, and if something happens to her, the Church will need a Grand High Priestess anyways. Subirachs keeps this thought to herself; she doubts Rugatonn wishes to be reminded of it.
"The true answer, Most High?"
"Keltham told us over and over, that if Carissa was somehow a hidden cleric, all tests would not avail to detect her whatever was tried."
"Keltham just now wondered if some strange pathway might somehow lead to Sevar not truly selling her soul, while appearing to have sold her soul, and then also evading the test then applied to her; he demanded it occur immediately afterwards."
"Do you now see what one should do, and why, upon detecting Sevar as the hidden cleric of a Lawful Neutral god?"
"A disappointment like so many others."
"Consider this. Who is not allowed, by the 'trope', to detect Carissa Sevar by any test, if she is a hidden cleric? Somebody on Golarion knows; a god at least knows. The 'trope' does not prevent the fact from being known to anyone. If there is a conspiracy in Cheliax to hide the fact from Keltham, does this violate the 'trope' because the conspiracy knows it? My understanding of 'tropes' suggests no."
"Then upon detecting Carissa Sevar as the cleric of a Lawful Neutral god, although it might indeed be very much in our own interests, in that case, to have Sevar renounce that link somehow formed, and make new sale of her soul if that was the obstacle, we cannot tell her. Do you understand? If we now tell Sevar or Keltham, we would not have been able to perform the test successfully in the first place; just as the test performed on Sevar last time, when she would have been told, did not then detect her. Keltham would not have arrived in this plane, perhaps the entirety of this reality would have failed to ever exist, if that event could have any other outcome from Sevar's and Keltham's perspective."
"Oh, and in case you had still failed to comprehend as much, Carissa Sevar is in fact the unfinished cleric of a Lawful Neutral god, very likely Irori."
"If another 'trope' threatens? Treat it the same as you would a meddling god with unshattered prophecy, which is to say, refer it all to me, because it is beyond you."
"As for your cultivation of Sevar? Continue it the same as before. We already wished Sevar to distance herself from Irori."
Rugatonn emerges from her conference with Subirachs, neither of them particularly readable as to what might have been said there.
"Sevar," she states. "You have an appointment with a ley-line, a sacrifice, and a 5th-circle scroll. Let us be swift about this, for Keltham may not expect this matter to take long."
It's not a person, it's a tame warg, clearly someone's prized attack animal. Carissa feels a rush of relief about that which she absolutely merits punishment for, and accepts the sacramental blade enchanted with a beautiful spell she has no time to look at, and gets to work on enhancing her caster level sufficiently to give herself Permanent Detect Magic from a scroll.
Keltham is pacing inside the fortress, back of the entranceway/exit that Carissa used; it is not considered safe for him to go any further, let alone outside, he would not be sufficiently scry-warded.
...if Carissa comes back and everything is fine then he can probably give up on terror of random tropes, right. The conflict didn't happen with the Queen, Asmodia does not seem to have superpowers. If Carissa is no kind of hidden cleric and her afterlife arrangements go fine and their romantic options contract proves not to be a setup for some huge awfulness, he'll be able to say that all this trope business is more the sort of thing he ends up calling afterwards than the sort of thing he can call in advance, and he should be less afraid the next time he thinks up an advance prediction of something terrible. Isidre won't be a hidden criminal mastermind either.
It takes what feels like far too long but then his Carissa returns to him, looking radiantly pleased with herself. "It worked fine," she says. "I got Arcane Sight and a lot of spellsilver. And the Grand High Priestess came by and poked me personally and said that she believes as strongly as mortals can believe things that I'm not a hidden cleric of Zon-Kuthon, which, I wasn't very worried, but I know you were."
"Message. Technically Arcane Sight only lets me see that it's a cantrip and a transmutation, to see the actual spell structure I need to see you cast it. But I know it's Message since that's the transmutation you hung today. She said that I was no hidden cleric, and I didn't press her on whether that technically covered all possible kinds of clerics who might be in various possible states of knowing and known, but also I don't think the devil could have bought my soul, had a god already claimed it."
"And the devil actually did buy your soul, which you haven't actually said in those words, and there did not happen any incredible shenanigan behind the scenes while I was not there which explains for perfectly logical reasons why Governance would have to lie about whether you'd sold your soul successfully and fake the Arcane Sight thing."
(Keltham will now roll his Sense Motive against Carissa's Bluff, with a +5 bonus for surprising her with this startling insight.)
"The devil actually did buy my soul, in what I think was a completely normal devil-buying-soul transaction, aside from the part where he thought it was weird the Grand High Priestess was hovering looking totally un-awestruck. The devil gave me Arcane Sight and a lot of spellsilver in exchange for my soul, which he bought."
(Bluff: 34).
"Part of me is having trouble believing it, because, if I believe that, it means I'm basically safe from what my brain predicts are horrible things that will happen to me because of tropes, like the options contract being sweet and romantic and thereby implying that something horrible will happen to our relationship as a result, and my actually being safe like that seems too good to be true in a world where Cayden Cailean is suddenly doing my snacks catering."
(Keltham's Sense Motive: lol + 5)
"That's extremely sensible."
"My brain, which apparently is very reluctant about believing in that safety business, because it thinks that's going to get me killed or worse, has instead entered a weird state where part of it has decided that this of all things is the proof that everything around me is an elaborate lie. I'm probably not going to be in a very sexual mood until it recovers. I would still like to go to our bedroom and cuddle with the person that part of my brain thinks is a cleric unknown to herself because, you know, the Grand High Priestess would totally have had some incredibly logical reason for lying to her about that or doing the technical truth thing, after they faked the soul sale."
"Okay, yeah, that actually helps to hear you say, I am a little worried about how much dath ilani being sane relies on them having anything else sane around them, and the thought of having to write down my insanity as a fraction on a poster like I was a tiny kid again is actually very very helpful here."
"Bedroom?"
Keltham is holding her pretty tightly.
"Not trying to update relationship model right now, too busy trying to convince a - slice through my mind's structure - that you're not going to die in the next hour."
"I can shut this all down if necessary or in any emergency, I am not out of control of myself, it's just, I have a sense it's wiser to wait it out."
"The thing with Cayden Cailean catering my snacks really really did not flaming help with anything. It really didn't. Finding out the way I did didn't help either. This whole world seems so barely real, like I'm supposed to go to the layer past saying 'I notice that I am confused' and say 'This is not reality' and wake up out of it."
Oh, he's finally having his metaphysical panic attack. That's also an meta-deconstructed-eroLARP trope. He always wondered how you would get a realistic sane person to the point of actual metaphysical panic when, like, they knew the math, and now Keltham knows.
"...hey. There's - something I want to do - that I don't know if you'd recognize, or understand, and I'm not in shape to explain it properly. I want to let the part of me that - doesn't believe in any of this - talk to you. It won't be all of Keltham that's talking and you shouldn't panic about what it says. If you can't - make that mental separation, between that part of me, and my whole - if part of you will think on some deep level that it was the real Keltham talking - then I shouldn't do it."
"I'm sorry that Keltham hasn't seen through all this. He has enough information and he's refusing to see it because he doesn't want to believe. I'm sorry that Keltham is refusing to realize what, what's being done to you, to make you do all this, the threats being held over you that people in Golarion yield to, what they had to do to you to force you to lie and be part of this and have sex you didn't want when he didn't turn you on at all, to pretend to gasp in pleasure while he was hurting you and hurting you -"
Keltham is crying.
At some point Carissa's going to have to stop having her brain just flail in panic internally and force it to produce some outputs. Outputs. Those. What. Good girlfriend. What does a good girlfriend say to that. But actually what - if she were a paladin she's not sure she could figure out what to say to that -
She is not at all, she has built a firm wall internally against, parsing any of what Keltham is saying as real sympathy for the real Carissa, who he would hate, if he knew. Thinking about that is the road to feelings about that and the literal only advantage of feelings about that are that Abrogail would like them. The rest of the time, worse than useless.
Good girlfriend. What do good girlfriends say, about these words that do not mean anything to them.
"Oh," she says quietly. "Oh, I didn't realize how that'd be tied up with - should I, should I try to argue with you or should I just listen -"
"If you're not going to tell Keltham the truth, and you're not, because you'd get executed in a public execution and sent straight to the afterlife with people burning which is what all of the afterlives here are actually like, then no, arguing with me isn't going to help me or him."
Ouch.
"...okay. " she says, and - and wishes, even though she shouldn't, that there weren't any lies -
If the world were that bad, she is tempted to say, and ...places in it might be, you could've landed on Nidal, then, I expect, that Carissa would - be grateful, be awestruck, see in you proof that there's something else there, that humans can be more.
She shouldn't say that. What if it sounds too true.
What if she told Keltham they should run no. no. she didn't even really think it and she's very fucking sure that there's someone listening in with a Dominate Person, probably the Grand High Priestess herself, and she's not that weak and she's not that pathetic and she's not going to destroy her one chance to fix Cheliax and fix Hell because Keltham cried on her while saying things he didn't even mean. That's not who she is. She isn't going to choose feelings over her country, over her god, over the entire eternal fate of everybody. She accepts whatever punishment for having thought it but she honestly and thoroughly did not mean it, and if offered the choice right now she would not take it.
"I think that Carissa says sorry back," she says instead. "For hurting Keltham, even if she didn't have a choice and didn't mean to. For living in such a lousy world and not having fixed it up before she had guests over from another planet."
Hopefully that means she did it right? If the Grand High Priestess does happen to be listening, and also reading Keltham's mind, that would be EXTREMELY HELPFUL RIGHT NOW.
No.
Just her, her and Keltham's sense that something is wrong -
"I think that Carissa also says that, uh, that world needs a Keltham even more than this world, and she's glad it has one. Though real Carissa disagrees with her on that one and does not want that world to have a Keltham. Maybe it can have a Nemamel."
"The real Keltham wanted to chuckle. He thinks it's funny. I - don't."
"I want to promise you that I'll save you, that Keltham will save you, that he'll figure out everything and wake up out of this and save you. But he won't. He's just a dath ilani kid in over his head against the people wearing intelligence headbands who actually run Cheliax and who have been gaming this all out against him from the beginning. He's not going to figure it out, he doesn't want to figure it out, he wants to believe in his happy impossible world with masochists that's being constructed around him after the people here read his desires and probably read his actual mind, he wants to believe so he can go on hurting you and not thinking about how the real Carissa is screaming inside and he's only letting me talk like this in hopes that I go away and stop bothering him."
That would be good news, objectively. It still hurts to hear. And she's - not sure it's an accurate prediction.
She keeps wanting to reassure him but that's - probably not strategic - what's strategic -
- her brain is stuttering really hard on that question, probably because the strategic thing is something like get Keltham to identify with the incredibly cynical picture he just painted, and she both has no idea how to do that and is worried it might break the entire thing that everything else is built on.
"That's a lot to put on him," she says. "That if all the smartest people in an entire civilization are running an elaborate lie on him it's still - his fault, for believing them -"
"Keltham is thinking that you saying that helps. Because he wants to feel comforted. The truth is, they're not trying that hard, he's probably not even that important, they're doing all this just in case he knows something useful in there somewhere that the last thousand visitors they did this to didn't already know. They're not trying that hard. He doesn't see it anyways. Because he doesn't want to. Because he benefits from being blind. It's all been his fault from the beginning."
"Your world needed a Nemamel. Keltham can't save it."
"Keltham doesn't want to save it. He wants to be the protagonist of the little harem and the little 'eroLARP' that they made for him and seem to live happily ever after, until they conclude he doesn't have any useful information and throw him away to burn."
"You should hate him. He deserves it and not just for raping you."
Carissa's brain is really not functioning well enough to navigate this conversation.
It's not rape if she didn't say no even if you suspect her government has ordered her to keep you happy - no.
Why would you hate someone just for wanting to be comfortable and have a harem - no.
Keltham will be valuable to Cheliax his entire life - DEFINITELY NO.
"That seems like a really improbable thing for him to want!" she says eventually.
"And even though you should hate him, I want to ask you for forgiveness anyways, even though you shouldn't, and even though, if there was any part of you that felt forgiveness, you couldn't say it for real, because they're watching you right now and if you made me believe it, if you looked too much like you were thinking about it, they'd use mind-control on you and the next day there'd be a different actress playing you. I know all that and I still want to hear you say you forgive me but don't say that because I'll know you'd still be lying with threats of being burned and healed and burned and healed hanging over you and this whole conversation must be terrifying for the real Carissa and all I'm doing is hurting her even more because even this part of me is selfish."
Blind instinct -
"Keltham -
- this hypothetical Carissa -
- she's not thinking about what she thinks of Keltham, whether he's cruel, whether he's nice, whether he deserves to be hated, whether she hates him -
- she's thinking about whether he's going to help her fix stuff, or not. Because she's not actually so in love that it'd be the center of her life even if there were that much that badly wrong. And does she forgive him is a wrong question, because, gods, Keltham, she'd have so much on her plate!"
Great. Fantastic.
And it means that she was correct, that she couldn't have escaped even if she was the kind of idiot who would have tried, and she - reaches for the part of her that knew that, and tries to reward it with less negative twos than the rest of her. You were right, part of Carissa that knows there's no escape. You know the world you live in. Hopefully as I grow the impulse to escape will die but if it doesn't, you look out for Carissa, and know that there's no way out, and be right.
She clings to Keltham and cries.
Realistically, not much more work is getting done today, at least not by him.
There will probably be some eventual conversations after this, and Keltham will say that Carissa did very well for all of that having been sprung on her so unexpectedly. If it happens again she does not need to try to talk the speaking part of himself out of anything, does not need to argue with it, not unless there is some true thing that it seems like even that part could hear. It's Keltham's job to know the reasons why what he's saying isn't true, and he already knows those reasons; what needs to happen is just for the false things to be said.
Perhaps sex will occur. Keltham probably won't feel like hurting Carissa tonight if so. This is not something to panic about. He just strained a part of himself that now very predictably needs to recover.
They should sleep, Keltham says; have some dinner brought to them as a minor favor, eat it, and then sleep. They will predictably feel better the next morning. Human minds are like that.
Carissa is annoyed with the Queen for trying to encourage her to have feelings. She really thinks that her life would be easier to handle without them. She's aware that this is ridiculous, and ungrateful, and in a sense as objectively wrong as a thought can possibly be. But having feelings? Really inconvenient! Kind of the worst! It doesn't make her feel more whole and more able to handle the task ahead, it makes her feel overfull. Bloated. Lost. Stupid. Pathetic.
It feels - maybe wrongly - like this whole deception is hanging on Carissa alone. Keltham's dark fantasy is that this is one of a thousand projects, half-neglected, just-in-case, but it's the real thing, the only thing they've got. She is not a participant in a system whose victory is inevitable. If they succeed it'll be because of her and if they fail it'll be because of her.
(Asmodeus's larger victory is inevitable, though, presumably.)
(But how much of a victory would that even be, if it occurred without fixing how Cheliax trains people and how Hell trains devils, if it held the state of the art still in its current place rather than leveraging it to make everything better..... heretical, almost definitely heretical.)
She is at the point where she'd generally start wishing she was on fire but she's not actually quite wishing that. She doesn't feel quite ready.
A bunch of thoughts are floating around in her head half-formed, and she needs to get better at thinking them, at not ignoring them, but in Keltham's arms it's like it's hard to access the Carissa who demanded three Wishes of a devil. She halfheartedly tries to pin them all down for contemplation later, but even that feels like swimming uphill. Are tropes real? They seem to be making good predictions about Carissa not selling her soul and having some bizarre reason not to tell Keltham. Put a pin in that. Does she know anything that can justify her value to Dis? Not yet, but in a couple months, maybe. Put a pin in that. Is Hell good at what it does? Put a pin in that. What is Cayden Cailean doing. Put a pin in that. Is there a way to prove to Keltham that masochists exist and aren't all faking. Put a pin in that. Is Meritxell a good next partner for Keltham. Pin. Are they succeeding at making Keltham Asmodean or just technically-Evil, and does the latter serve them at all? Pin. The aim of all this is to make Keltham and Cheliax enough alike that when they truly meet, Keltham isn't repelled. Is the way to achieve that changing Keltham or changing Cheliax? Pin.
It's too much; one of those questions might well be the key to the whole thing, but she doesn't know which one.
After Keltham has fallen asleep she finds herself lying awake, terrified, arguing in her head with not-real-Keltham whose deepest underlying terror is apparently that she doesn't want to be there with him. It's not a problem she's ever had before. She's not the kind of person who lies awake imagining burning in Hell; probably burning in Hell won't be very fun, but what in the world would she gain by imagining it?
My lord Asmodeus, who will possess me forever, let me do as You will, or, failing that, do things You expect, so that I may be easily guided, and easily placed where I am needed. Let me be intelligent, if that serves You, and stupid, if that serves You, and a foolish heretic if that serves You, and let me ultimately be corrected in it; I can endure anything if I know that it is temporary. I treasure Your guidance, and am trying to obey it, and if I am failing, and being an idiot, know that I see a fragment of the flaws of mortals and hate it and am glad that You hate it, and that I want to fix it, for You.
Irori would not mind more information about Carissa Sevar, Himself, if anything has come to Abadar's attention about her.
Irori proposes a two-way trade of everything they respectively know that seems relevant, with Abadar not to use any information from Irori to hinder Carissa Sevar along her Way. If there is an asymmetry in the gains from the traded info, then they shall be reconciled by standard payment scaled-down for their mutual exhaustion (from the Zon-Kuthon war; their divine resources are now both more costly and more valuable to either of them).
Agreed. Abadar knows of this contract with a cleric of His own, and knows from the work of His mortals some only half-translatable mortal things about a Chelish project in the interdicted zone, which Sevar might be running, or maybe a subject of, or which is maybe cover for something Sevar is doing with Abadar's cleric. It might be worthwhile for Abadar's and Irori's respective mortals to compare mortal notes.
Carissa Sevar first came to Irori's attention when she was learning from the anomaly of Otolmens's concern, who is Abadar's cleric also much to Otolmens's concern, and it seemed that Abadar's cleric was speaking of matters that had again concerned Otolmens. Irori looked within Abadar's cleric at Otolmens's request and found that Abadar's cleric intended no destruction in that moment, but only to speak upon his own Way to others.
It became visible to Irori then, upon a second look about, that Carissa Sevar had set a first foot along her Way, an unusually determined and promising Way for all that it is barely begun; Carissa Sevar has learned from the anomaly something of what it means to be a god, which is not simply about touching a Starstone or gaining power over the world or encyclopedic knowledge or some vague concept of 'perfection'.
Irori then bargained with Asmodeus that Carissa Sevar's soul not be bought by Him, and that she not be prevented in leaving Cheliax if her footsteps took her beyond it in time. Asmodeus may have taken this as a challenge and decided to interpret it as a contest for Carissa Sevar's soul, which, if so, Irori had thought would probably be good for her pathway to epicness and godhood and hopefully beyond.
By some strange course of events this led to Carissa Sevar's eternity standing in peril, at the hands of some powerful creature of Cheliax apparently meaning to transform her into a statue, ward her petrified form, bury her never to be found. And so Irori marked her, softly enough that neither she nor her tormentor would notice it, so that someday some caster willing to be quested by Him could retrieve her.
A few hours later Irori got an incredibly irate call from Otolmens asking why one of the mortals in Her interdicted zone standing quite close to the anomaly seemed to now be an unfinished cleric of Irori's. Irori went very completely legible about how much He had absolutely not been planning to causally impact the interdicted zone in any way. Otolmens is still upset about this and, frankly, Irori can't blame Her. Otolmens has gone to nearly the greatest possible lengths available to Her to reduce the amount of divine interference around the anomaly, and the clerics and oracles around him are still accumulating.
Irori still has no idea what the heck happened with Carissa Sevar apparently being set to be petrified and buried by some being of great power and Evil, and then her apparently being fine a few hours later. Even if it had somehow been a false threat, Carissa Sevar's soul does not appear scarred in the way that mortals would usually be scarred by such extreme threat and fear; it was as if the whole event had happened to someone else who was also Carissa Sevar, and so also marked by Him as His cleric. Memory erasure of the episode? Maybe she has two personalities and only one of them is scarred now, and she's currently using the other one, and that one doesn't remember? Irori does not have compelling theories here; nothing He has seen previously happen to observed mortals matches this. It is like the end of one time's thread was sliced out and spliced with the start of another; one where her soul's health is if anything improved.
He does not know why Abadar's cleric would pay thus for an option on Carissa Sevar's soul, except for the obvious fear that it stands somehow in danger of being bought, despite Irori having bargained with Asmodeus for that not to happen. There are standard clauses in the compact for which Irori paid Asmodeus whereby Irori Himself could revoke it, but this He cannot be threatened into doing, nor would He do it even at Carissa Sevar's own request if she were being forced into making it. Irori would of course revoke it if Carissa Sevar prayed to Him and seemed in full sincerity to believe that her Way made that her next step forward, but then in a case like that there is also no reason why Abadar's cleric would need to protect her. Irori's best guess is that Carissa Sevar falsely believes that there is a prospect of her soul's sale being forced, and Abadar's cleric is seeking to protect her from that. Even the Asmodeans may not yet know her soul is unbuyable.
With all that said, Irori does not exactly have a merchant group of which Carissa Sevar is an employee, that is monitoring Carissa Sevar and has notes to compare on her. Nor, in fact, is it particularly evident that Carissa Sevar would need or want any more of Irori's aid, considering how past attempts at that have been working out for Him and her.
That also said, Irori is aware of Abadar's communications difficulties. Irori can perhaps send forth some mortal willing to receive a vision from Him, to speak to those mortals that Abadar trades with, and say what Irori knows and can make clear. But this Irori would not do of His own accord, nor does He much expect that His interests will benefit from the quested mortal hearing whatever they may hear in return. It would come out of Abadar's own intervention budget.
(Which is, for those gods present in the beginning, who are not now too much in disaccord with the way that things are, more generous than any intervention budget ever granted by them to any god that was once human.)
The mortals that Abadar trades with predict a really wide range of outcomes from this whole mess and some of them are quite concerning: see, look at their persistence in predicting more than a ten percent chance of the destruction of the multiverse. If mortals weren't incredibly bad at predictions that would be terrifying and as it stands it is still Abadar's highest concern.
Abadar is willing to pay for Irori to arrange for those mortals to have more information that would allow their predictions to be better, and should the results turn out to benefit Irori's interests, Irori can reimburse him partially, as usual.
Done, then.
Trading with Abadar is gentle enough, if you are not yourself trying to mess with Him, that it is hardly like trading at all; just having portions of your utility functions mix together like dyes of two different colors, blending to paint some portion of the world in a single shade.
Most gods have worshippers. Asmodeus has slaves. Abadar has trade partners.
From the perspective of a monk named Derrina, she follows her own Way... but permitting herself to be steered by Irori often places her in situations where she learns something. Or, occasionally, somebody else learns something.
She would not presume to call Irori her teacher. At best He has been to Derrina something like a scrawled old treasure map that she occasionally follows another step.
Derrina is, for the most part, a barehanded martial artist, because that is what resonates the most with her, and most feels to her like she is becoming something better by progressing in it. Derrina did however once trouble herself to attend a wizard academy, after it had become clear to her that solving intellectual challenges on the level of spellcraft had become the next thing she believed she could not do. Over the years since, Derrina has made use of that to challenge monsters that might be too much for her fists alone, resorting to spells only when her fists failed her, and items only when her spells failed her. Now she is fifth-circle and can Teleport, and following her Map's hints has many times taken her to far places where she, or somebody, will learn something of value.
Derrina is, if you bother to ask, a first-circle cleric of Irori. It is enough for Him to watch her and enough for Him to steer her into learning opportunities, and neither of them desires for her to receive any more aid from Him than that. Eventually, if her Way proves true, Derrina will pray to Him one final time that He may sever their connection. Irori had no god when He ascended.
This is the first time that she has received from Irori a request, or any such clear vision at all, but it hardly requires much contemplation for Derrina to agree. Her relationship with Irori thus far has not been one where she feels that she has accumulated debt to Him; Irori has steered her well, many times, but it is not as if she never advanced His interests on those occasions. Yet the prospect of having truly served Irori, in some deed He could not do for Himself, is an exciting one; Derrina has many things she might ask of Him, if she had properly earned some reward by her own strength and His true need.
And besides that -
She is not at the point where she could say that she considers Irori to be something of a friend.
But she does want to get there, someday.
It is said that Osirion has no place for women like her and no concept of them. What of it? It will be a learning experience. Perhaps for her, and perhaps for them, but at any rate for somebody.
All that Derrina owns is about herself already, and she already has a Teleport prepared. It will not take her to Osirion, for there she has not yet been; but it will take her to a city large enough that she can purchase a Teleport from there to Osirion's capital of Sothis. As soon as she finishes recovering from receiving Irori's vision, Derrina will be ready to be on her Way.
Well. His Way, this time.
Derrina contemplates this a moment, and decides that if she was too strict about even that, it would be one more needless chain upon herself. There; she has already learned something.
Her hands draw shapes in air, and she is gone.
The first thing Carissa does in the morning is prepare spells; the second is track down Asmodia, who she'd meant to meet with the previous night to coordinate stories on Hell, before things happened. She should probably expect that things will always happen. Asmodia has her authorized lies, but it felt yesterday like that wasn't quite enough, and the obvious explanation is that it's related to the thing where Asmodia had a message for Carissa from a dead devil.
Which in hindsight maybe she should have asked to hear, or at least flagged as awfully important.
They meet in the antechamber of the allowed-to-Keltham temple; there's Security at the door.
"What happened in Hell? - not to you, I don't care if you want to relive that or not, but, uh, around you."
"I woke up next to my contract devil. He finished reading his books and eventually got around to questioning me. Said that it would be a flaw in the structure of Hell, I forget his exact words, if he wasn't allowed to know anything that I knew, and if that resulted in him being suddenly promoted, so be it, and if somebody destroyed him for being promoted too high, so be it. I started by giving him the broad outline, Keltham, what Keltham knows, what the knowledge might mean, Nethys giving Ione book powers, Pilar being made Cayden Cailean's oracle, Carissa Sevar is sleeping with the Queen."
"He didn't seem to notice any of that as important until I got to the part about Carissa Sevar, at which point he stopped in the middle of what he was doing and said: Carissa Sevar? Tell me more."
Asmodia will pause here, in case anybody happens to want to say something about that.
"He set me to writing down everything I remembered about our project, and then set me to copying spell diagrams, and then walked me through Dis to a place I'd rather not talk about and left me there. Before he saw me off, he said, I memorized it: Tell Carissa Sevar that you are, of course, for sale at the right price, and to look up Ahuvir Dulzomaud, who holds your soul."
"Two hours or so after he left me, I felt a sensation that I was told was the feeling of my contract devil dying and my soul going to whoever had the next rights for it."
"I was not informed of anything else. The only guesses I had, were that knowledge of our project promoted him above his place and led to his destruction, or that he'd been destroyed for trying to pester you with offers."
Shit. All right, she was trying to get through without giving away this much to a Security, but at this point, if anybody's reading her mind, they're going to notice how much it's going not-readable.
Asmodia places outside the barrier: You are not allowed to ask why my mind is unreadable. Tell literally no one. If you must talk with me do so without notice.
"It was inside Dis's palace and - there were older devils there, making me do - many things - the memories are blurry. It hurt. At the very end they put me somewhere I would recover faster so I wouldn't be in too bad of a state when I went back."
" - I see." She doesn't. She's confused. But she isn't sure being confused at Asmodia is a good idea. Better to wait until she has a guess, and then -
Do you have superpowers? But then she'd have successfully hidden them up to this point, and doesn't have reason to confess now.
Is there some secret Hell's keeping from us? But obviously there are many.
Did you think I ordered it? Because it had seemed like she thought that, when they first talked, but Carissa couldn't bluff her way through, not that blind -
"Are you lying to me on Hell's instructions?"
The High Priestess would know for sure. Carissa - isn't sure.
Keltham thought Asmodia would come back with superpowers, and he's been right about far too many other things he had no way to guess.
"Is there anything I'd be allowed to know, if I swore not to tell anyone, not even the Queen or the Grand High Priestess."
Why is she asking that. Why is she putting it that way. It doesn't make sense.
"I - I don't understand. If Hell had instructed me to lie about something, why would you think that I'd be allowed to -"
"Why do you think something unusual happened to me in Hell? Why does Keltham think that? Maybe it's not in my own interests that I say this but since it seems that it might be a big Security issue, I should notify you that I've figured out that you, Keltham, and the Crown all suspect that something happened to me in Hell, you suspect I was told by Hell not to talk about it, and you're asking me anyways, while promising not to tell the Queen and Grand High Priestess, and this is the sort of thing where, where I don't know who I'm supposed to report to! I know you could have good reasons, I'm not stupid! But it seems like I ought to report this to somebody!"
That should provide some cover if anybody does find out somehow that she sent a secret message to Gorthoklek.
"Keltham predicted you'd come back from Hell with superpowers. The way he predicted that was - weird, and makes other predictions, that we care about a lot. If Hell told you not to tell me something, then you shouldn't tell me, but if Hell might under some possible set of conditions want me to know that, then I would love to know under what conditions I get to know that, even if I don't get to know anything else. No one is reading your mind; no one is listening. I answer to the High Priestess here, if you think I'm not serving Hell, in this."
What does she care about, in this? Not whether Project Lawful makes correct decisions. Also not whether Hell keeps its secrets from Project Lawful. There's one thing she cares about, which is finding out who she now needs to serve, or return a favor to.
And she's just found out that Carissa Sevar isn't the one who knows. Only Keltham knows, if anyone does.
"I don't have any - I'm not even sure what would count as a superpower* - that I know about already and am allowed to tell you about under the circumstances you describe. One thing you learn in Hell very quickly, even before they do any of what they call training, is to obey. If I was thinking what you seem to be thinking, I wouldn't ask the mortal who came back from Dis, I'd send to the palace in Dis and ask directly. You can tell them it's important to the project and that you won't tell the Queen or Grand High Priestess."
(*) This Taldane term literally refers to an anomalous special ability that usual members of a race/class/species should not have.
So now the question is, did she screw that up, or rather, how badly did she screw that up.
Asmodia turns and gets about halfway out of the room before she pauses and tentatively says, "Am I going to - should I be prepared to answer further questions from Security or the Crown?"
"I have no desire to get myself in that kind of trouble."
Asmodia departs.
Now she needs to figure out how to have a conversation with Keltham that doesn't get shut down, and... does not involve using her hoped-for Gorthoklek authorization in ways Gorthoklek would not approve of, because it is possible to get tortured by devils outside of Hell...
...possibly she should just make like she's trying to investigate him for eventual dating purposes, and see if that topic comes up once they're alone. Nobody would suspect that, right?
The city of Sothis is built in a place where you'd expect an obvious city, just from seeing the planet from orbit; at the delta of an enormous river, which meets the Inner Sea less than 100miles from Absalom and Oppara. North, the river delta fans out into an enormous maze of swamp and canal, most of it growing crops; south, the river banks remain green and the rest is desert.
The city of Sothis is also built around another notable feature, which is the enormous, black, glinting carcass of the colossal beetle Ulanat, one of the spawn of Rovagug which terrorized the world nearly ten thousand years ago. The city has tall buildings, as these things go, but the beetle carcass towers over them.
The streets are wide and paved and dusty and crowded with vendor stalls, selling fish and grain and textiles and trinkets and remedies. It's blistering hot.
She's getting some stares. It's not obvious if they're for the Teleport or the ethnicity or the gender.
They are mostly wearing clothes that leave no skin showing, though that might be more about the sun than about modesty; the men are dressed similarly. They travel in groups, or with men, not alone, and constitute much less than half of the foot traffic on the street, though far from none of it. There are some adventurers, noticeable from their elaborate robes or their indifference to the heat or their colorful travelling companions; all of those seem to be men. Street vendors are men.
Mm. Well, if anyone politely asks her to change her appearance, there is no reason for Derrina not to politely comply with the ways of the land in which she finds herself. Impolite requests will be judged on a case-by-case basis.
Perhaps she could start by making inquiries of some place where foreign adventurers gather. Can she locate one such by eyesight, by wandering, by moving in a direction where many adventurers seem to go?
(She could just ask for directions, of course, and if she fails she will, for she is about Another's business. But Derrina would at least see where her own seeking takes her first.)
Towards the towering black beetle carcass, apparently. The streets are narrower, but the buildings nicer, as one walks in that direction; the goods in the storefronts are more expensive; the people are better-dressed. There weren't many beggars in the streets, in the place where she landed, but here there are none.
(The share of people who are women is falling.)
She passes a spectacular and architecturally impossible temple, zig-zagging twenty stories into the sky, done in stone with the veins placed just so as to make a spectacular pattern. Around the temple there are fourteen bars, six fee-libraries, twelve workshops advertising different kinds of woodworking and metallurgy tools, and nine different places advertising themselves as the academy of something or other; this seems to be where all of the adventurers gather.
Nearly all, though not precisely all, of them are men.
Well then. How about if she heads into whichever bar looks the highest-leveled and hence most likely to have rumors and advice suitable for a high-level adventurer? She does not partake in alcohol, but Osirion seems like the sort of place where you can find a non-alcoholic beverage if you ask for one.
(Derrina doesn't look like a fifth-circle wizard, particularly, if she doesn't use her magic; but she's got a hell of a Lawful aura for a monk.)
"You'll have the wine?" the bartender actually says to her as if he almost never gets any other requests, when she walks in. In Taldane; she looks like she'd speak it. There's a board up labelled 'bounties' and another labelled 'bets'; both are large, and people are gathered around them chattering. Some of them look at Derrina once, and then twice; no one approaches her while she's ordering.
"Sure." He puts away the wine he was about to pour, which is glowing with a powerful Transmutation, and crushes some lemons instead for a sugar and lemon drink, Prestidigitated cold as he hands it across the bar. "We take gold, or silver, or Absalom dollars; if you've anything rarer you'll have to trade it at the temple."
"How long left on the wine?" someone asks him while he's preparing her drink.
"An hour."
" - here from a long way away, hmmm? In that case I should pitch you on the wine. There's a spell of the second circle, quite simple, that transmutes ordinary liquid to wit-sharpening wine, not as good as a headband, but good for - applying the smarts you've already got in ways you might not have thought of, for doing research or solving a puzzle or finishing something when you know you will think of the answer eventually, you just haven't yet. It's a weak spell, normally, and doesn't last long, but cast by the most powerful mage in all the Inner Sea, Nefreti Clepati, at our very own Temple of the All-Seeing Eye, it lasts more than three hours - an hour left, on this batch, which you get a discount for - and the effect is much much more powerful. I know people who say they'd take it over a headband, if you could bottle it in a headband, which you can't. The lemonade will be a third of the weight of this coin here, and the wine about a full coin; advice is free, if you're new in town."
"Mm. Perhaps I shall prove to have need of the wine, but I would as soon challenge my current problem with just my natural wits first."
She slides the full coin across the counter to him. "Take the full coin for the lemonade; I am indeed seeking advice, and if you say that it is free for one new in town, well, give an extra helping of advice someday to someone who isn't, on me."
Derrina sips the drink and finds it nothing surprising; it tastes like how you'd expect it to taste given how it was made. Refreshing, perhaps, but not enlightening. Most experiences are not.
"I am sent to this land on something of an unusual mission, bearing information that is needful to a group of - gamblers, or some such, but pursuing that as a calling and not for profit alone, aspiring to slice the finest odds upon their bets that mortals may set. These gamblers will be associated with the god Abadar, perhaps clerics of His church or answerable to such. Where would I go seeking to find someone who could tell me about which such groups might exist in Osirion? If there is only one such, my answer is already found."
" - sure sounds like something in the church, sir, and I expect they'd know, or you could talk to the man who sets the numbers on the bounties, when he comes by, 'cause he must employ at least one of them if he isn't one himself. He comes by most mornings, though not all of them; sometimes none of the numbers have much changed."
"The Church does all kinds of things, but most of interest to adventurers they do death insurance, and if you go and die insured they'll run a bounty for someone to bring your body in, to save them the fancier kind of diamond on the resurrection. So they post dead people and the bounties and their estimates of how likely someone is to succeed at bringing them in, though of course if you're very good your odds will be higher, and if you're very lousy they'll be lower, but it's useful to know which ones are chasing fish in the sea and which ones are solid money."
Money is long since meaningless to her, who bears no magic arms nor magic armor and uses magic items only as an admission of temporary failure. Derrina regularly donates excess wealth to some good cause or another, and does some needful act Pharasma calls Evil to restore the balance if she finds her alignment shifting.
"Not my calling, at this moment... but I admit, I do not see the connection between that and the gamblers I am to seek."
" - as suits you, I suppose. Anyway, I'm not a religious, but - it's all the same currency, information and money. The insurance company, when they notice someone's gone and died, has to guess how much trouble it'll be to return their body, to set the bounty. If they're bad at guessing then they're going to set the bounty too high, or too low, and lose money, next to an insurance company run by people who know how to count. And they've been at it a while, so they're not bad at guessing, and no one would take a bounty from a place that didn't guess, or didn't tell you their guess. It's gambling, but not to win some copper off your friends, and if you win, then in the long run, everyone wins, 'cause death insurance is cheaper and this pack of fools can go out and do more dangerous stuff."
"An interesting Way. I do not think I have fully grasped it from your description alone. The people I am seeking, no doubt, have understood it much better."
She finishes her lemonade, sets down the empty glass. "Where may I find such a Church of Abadar as would be able to guide my next steps?"
"From your description I don't know if your information is something they'll buy at the first temple you come to, or something for some very secret group of people who bet on spies or something like that. But if it's the latter, you'd want the temple in the Black Dome, and you can't get into the Black Dome without a recommendation, so either way you might as well start at the first temple you come to."
Someone else comes up, wanting wine; he pours it for them.
She is already curious as to what silly thing she shall have to do to earn a 'recommendation' to the Black Dome's temple, but she is perhaps getting ahead of herself.
"I'll be on about the way, then," she says, and departs.
She will enter the first temple of Abadar that she comes to, as instructed.
It's clean and busy; there's a line of people waiting for service at a polished stone counter, and a teenage boy scrubbing the polished stone floors, and a teenage girl carrying boxes of records back and forth from the counter and up the stairs to the next floor. There's a sizable altar beyond the front room, where people are laying candles and burning incense, but it's not at all the focal point of the space. Down some narrow stairs, there's a glimpse of a classroom, full of boys who are age five to ten or so.
Silliness, but silver is meaningless to her. If this is how Abadar's clerics choose to conduct themselves about His business, that is between their own selves and Abadar, and none of her proper concern.
Well then, Derrin shall go and pay six silver to consult one of Abadar's for a quarter-hour.
Most people are younger than her, in fact.
"I am sent to this land bearing information for certain people who are of interest to Abadar, perhaps His clerics, or answerable to such. They are gamblers excelling in their art and aspiring to excel more yet, slicing their odds as finely as a blade's edge or a hair's width. They are considering a question of some importance; the one who sent me wishes for them to have information pertinent to it. How may my steps be guided onward to find those I seek?"
"I understand. Almost every decision of importance in Osirion is made by gambling, as you would call it; it focuses the mind, to make predictions in numbers it is accustomed to, and coin is a number in which we are all accustomed to reasoning, with the additional useful property of rewarding those who reason well. Different ones ask different questions. Our great merchant houses gamble in ships, and our great adventuring companies in the lives of those who purchase their protection, and our census-takers in the numbers of our people and the yields of their fields; it would be difficult to direct you with no idea of what your question touches on."
"I am reluctant to call the matter important, since, in my experience, what great palaces and temples think to be important is often different from what is actually important, and I have no desire to find myself before royalty accused of wasting their time." Again. "Still, the matter strikes me as one more important than merchant ships and granaries. Are you the one who should dispatch me about that, or should I visit another, who knows all these gamblers better, before I can go no further along the way without speaking?"
"I can refer you to one senior in the Church, and with a recommendation they charge their fee directly to Abadar, if that is how you see the value running; on so little information I would hesitate to refer you to the Dome, which is where the contracts run most finely, and on the matters of the greatest importance. - the Dome cannot be scried through, and in fact no spell can go through it at all, and so matters that ought not to be known are spoken of there; and it is the seat of the Pharaoh who is Abadar in Golarion. Has your time been compensated? What would you charge us for it?"
"To have honestly earned any reward from the one who sent me, by my own strength and in a matter of his true need, is all that I ask. The fees Abadar's clerics ask strike me as strange, but if they are within my ability to pay, I will pay them myself and not concern myself with who else should. I am given this task; I accepted it; I will complete it myself."
"I will visit your senior. Let them decide whether to send me on to this Dome; perhaps my quest lies within, perhaps not."
"I can accompany you, if you have no travelling companion; they will not agree to meet you alone, and your matter is secret. It it not necessary that I hear you speak of it." She pulls a bag off her wall and puts it over her shoulder. "How would you have the priests decide which petitions to answer?"
Derrina will follow where she is led, if she is being led.
"I have never given the matter much thought before. Religions of Good seem to have their priests judging urgent needs and answering them. Priests of Evil, of course, answer petitions according to how it serves their own purposes or the spread of their particular sickness. Chaotic Neutral would decide at random, perhaps, I admit I have never brought a petition before such. Nethys's priests would like you to be clever enough, knowledgeable enough, before they deign to speak to you. On the Lawful Neutral side of things, a priest of Irori is something of a contradiction in terms, but they sometimes seem to think that asking petitioners to prove their strength or judgment to them is somehow meaningful. I think they are silly, but then they are engaged about a silly profession."
She has told the apprentice her whereabouts and set off down the street, towards the Dome again.
"It seems to me that the ideal, even were one Good, would be to answer the petitions that are the most important, that touch on the greatest costs or the greatest benefits, and where the advice is more sorely needed and likeliest to be listened to. And when people pay for advice, they demonstrate that they expect the advice to inform a decision of great weight, and that they intend to listen to it. I am not Good, but if I were, my price would be the same, I think, if my gains distributed differently."
"Because their decisions are inconsequential; to the extent their decisions are consequential, they will not listen; to the extent such a one is humble enough to listen on consequential matters, I would not expect the advice they purchase from an advice-seller to be better than their own judgment. But perhaps I am too cynical, having wandered so much of Golarion beyond the paradise that Osirion must be with so much excellent advice for sale."
"The ones who will not listen do not purchase; people listen, to counsel that was expensive for them, and they seek it out only when they judge it worth the cost. But it is a fair complaint, that the system, if it is better, should have proved itself, and hasn't yet; though the Church is new in its strength, and the country new to its independence, and I do not doubt that Abadar will change our path, if this one does not make us as wealthy as it is expected to."
They round a corner and approach a bigger, lovelier temple of Abadar, this one set right against the walls of the Black Dome. It's even more impressive in person, more than a hundred feet tall, not properly black but iridescent like the carapace of an enormous beetle which it is.
"So you'll prove your Way given some little time? To that I have no answer but my willingness and desire to witness it."
She'll gawk at the Black Dome without trying to conceal anything of how impressed she is; to pretend to be jaded is far beneath her dignity.
Someday, if she's good enough, and practices long enough, and walks her Way maybe further than Irori ever did, she may be able to kill something like that.
"Ulunat, the first Spawn of Rovagug," says her guide, "slain by the first Pharaoh. It is said that magic behaves strangely, within its shell; more powerful, for those who know how to wield it, but useless to those who don't." They ascend the temple steps. "And if the laws of Osirion don't make us the richest of all lands, then they were the wrong laws; the purpose of the laws is to bring plenty to those who work for it."
This bank has several counters, and the staffperson at one of them beckons them. "This woman has come on strange business, for which I have referred her to a senior priest; she'll pay their fee, if having heard the business they think it correct to charge it to her."
"How much do you prefer an answer at once to an answer tomorrow?" the staffperson asks Derrina.
"I suppose now and then I must replace some item I have failed badly enough to use, but for the most part, no, it accumulates until I give it away."
She takes a small handful of platinum from about herself, not bothering to count the coins. "I am reluctant to spend all I have in this very moment, in case I must play further rounds of this silly game, but I think at least this much I would like to see haste and seriousness."
"I am Derrina, sent hence upon an errand by one greater than myself. I bear information for gamblers who aspire to be the greatest in their art, which I thought would be more of a helpful distinction than it has proven to be in Sothis. Whether these aspiring gamblers may be found within the Black Dome, or beyond it, is not a thing known to me; the matter strikes me as one that is probably important, but I have often found myself disagreeing with royalty about what is probably important. The gamblers are related to the god Abadar, they may be His clerics, or answer to His clerics."
"If that is not enough information to send me upon my way, I'd have your oath as Abadar's cleric, not to repeat what else I must then say."
"Are there gamblers who don't aspire to be the greatest in their art?" he says. " - but give me a moment."
And he considers. "You have my oath not to repeat what further you have to say to me, or to deliberately share that which would permit another to derive it, and to defer to you on questions of discretion relevant to this oath, while you are available, and to my understanding of your wishes, if you are not."
"These matters then does it concern:"
"A goddess whose purpose is hidden. A place where the gods may not intervene. A woman of Cheliax. A priest of Abadar who should not be where he is. A torment unmade. A compact upon a compact upon a soul."
"Does that suffice for you to know for whom among Abadar's gamblers this information must be meant?"
"I, to be clear, do vouch for the accuracy of what I have said about the subject matter, but not that it is in fact of interest to this Prince."
"If that is understood, lead and I will follow after."
Derrina has fought her way out of three palaces in her life, and she thought to herself that she was failing to learn from experience after the second one.
"That is understood." He departs his office through a back door and trots off - not very quickly, he's an old man, but evidently quickly for the amount of cooperation he has from his joints - down the back stairs. "I do not think the Prince Merenre will disappoint you, or you him."
The back door is guarded. The priest speaks in a low voice with the guards.
" - her intentions -"
" - weapons -"
" - chaperone -"
Then they stand aside, and on opposite sides of the door press patterns into the wall, and the door opens into the Dome.
It is cool, inside Ulunat's corpse. The air does not feel stale, but crisp and refreshing, the feel of a breeze despite the absence of any actual breeze. There's the faint scent of summer wildflowers. The sun is visible in the sky, through illusion or perhaps some partial transparency in the beetle's carapace; it is not quite as bright as it ought to be, and the sky around it is a spectacular black-purple. The buildings here are very rich, and very lovely, and there are as many women as men.
At one end of the Dome is a spectacular white stone palace, rising all several hundred feet to the purple-black sky, surrounded by stunningly lush gardens. There they head; her new guide does not speak further.
The guards at the door stop them, but only, apparently, to take their message to the prince, and give them directions. And then they are escorted through the first floor of the palace, all pillars and fountains and silk sheets in the place of proper walls, up some marble stairs to the second floor where there's a sumptuous meeting-room.
And a woman-priest, there to chaperone. She is clothed as the male priest, which is notable only because the women visible in the distance as they were escorted here were wearing half-transparent gauze dresses and a great deal of gold jewelry.
"Here I may leave," her guide says, "or stay, if you would rest more easily knowing I will tell Prince Merenre, when he arrives, that we are here on my authority, and my conviction he'd wish to see you urgently."
"Prince Merenre will offer such assurances as you might require, but even without them, it would be a wrong against Abadar in His own house, to aim to eavesdrop on one who came for a private conference because they happened to ask for the wrong set of assurances. We're not Cheliax." The name is said with contempt and annoyance and some sadness.
It is not a long wait. When Prince Merenre walks in the woman kneels. He is a man of average height, slightly balding, with a distinctly ruddy complexion which one wouldn't expect on one with his Garundi-bronze skin. He's very lavishly dressed, of course, though an observant person will notice the hems of his sleeves are stained with ink.
He nods at the woman, and she removes her earrings.
"I am Derrina, dispatched to this errand by a vision sent of Irori. On request, I am given to understand, of Abadar."
"For purposes of my being very sure that I am in the right place and speaking to the right person, I must convey to you a warning whose understanding is a test. Irori is a god. My being here is therefore the result of a god's intervention. All the information I have for you, if you act on it, will mean that act stems from a god's intervention. Not only my god, but also yours."
"I would have you riddle to me the true meaning of this warning."
The tiredness is also reassuring.
"Here then is the information that I am sent with, for you, as best a divine vision can be passed down to a mortal in the first place, and then put by her into words."
"There is a cleric of Abadar who should not be where he is, striving to overcome his own displacement. Looking about that cleric, Irori found that one woman there had set her foot upon the Way from hearing him speak. I do not know what it was that woman heard; for my own part I would give much to meet her or this cleric and ask. Whatever it was she heard, it was enough for Irori to take great interest, and to act to ensure that the woman not be hindered along her own Way. I am not sure, but I would guess, perhaps guided by vision, that this would probably involve a new bargain or old compact or favor called with Hell, which would allow her to leave Cheliax in time and without her being required to sell them her soul."
There's more, but she'll pause if Merenre is, for example, writing this down, or asking questions.
When he stops writing, she will continue in speaking.
"When next Irori looked upon this woman she was in pain and utmost terror, far from her teacher and with a being of power and evil about her, believing herself to stand in danger of her eternity being taken from her. Not damned, but lost entirely. With everything she was, she strove to avoid that fate, without hope and yet harder than most mortals ever strive for anything in all their lives. Irori feared that he had been responsible for that, and so he - I am not sure here - he did something to her, to try to save her from her worst fate. I think He was trying to convey to me that it should not have been an intervention that would affect the interdiction zone, because she was due to be - lost, somehow, thrown away - but now Irori would be able to undo that loss, eventually -"
"And then shortly later, the woman was apparently fine, not scarred in any way visible to Irori by that utmost pain and terror, like her trial and torment had been somehow undone. And she was once more in the company of your stray cleric, her teacher."
"There was a fearful consequence of this that was unclear to me. I think possibly Otolmens was upset."
"If Irori knows, it cannot be said to me through the bond we share. The woman's name is not - a meaningful thing within her Way, it is nothing to any trial she has undergone or path she has walked. If her name was elsewise her Way would be the same. To be clear, that last was my own answer and not Irori's."
"The woman is however known to you, because of a compact upon a compact upon her soul. It was painful for Irori to convey that much to me, it is a concept of Abadar's and not Irori's, but it is how she is already known to you."
"That is all that I know to say, that I have already put into words."
"I have little personal stake in all these matters, beyond my desire to complete Irori's errand. And my curiosity as to whatever teaching so inspired Carissa Sevar, if there is any way for me to learn more of that."
"I might hear out that summary in order to complete Irori's errand as thoroughly as may be done, but not if it confines me to Osirion thereafter."
He nods. "It is my judgment that Abadar must have paid for this errand, but that Irori has interests that lie here as well, and I think none of those are served by your sharing with Cheliax, or with those who might report to them, what we have learned; but if I have assurance of your discretion, I will share what we know; and with or without that assurance I would not expect I have the means to bribe you to remain here if your path, in your mind, leads somewhere else."
"I was already treating this errand as quite confidential. You have that assurance; it is wholly covered by determinations I have already made."
"If you do know what Carissa Sevar learned, or there is a prospect of speaking to her or Keltham shortly, it would not be hard for you to alter where I saw my path as leading me. Nor shall I be especially upset or disbelieving if it is expressed to me that you think Irori's errand can be a little more thoroughly completed by tarrying a week to fail to answer more questions."
She hasn't tried any magic in the Black Dome, as yet, but if it's hard to learn, she wants to learn it.
"I only have guesses, as to what Keltham is, and what he could have taught her," Merenre says. "And I need to re-estimate those guesses, with this new information, which will take me some time; I could give you an approximation, now, or a better answer tomorrow. I should speak to the pharaoh, also, and you may if you wish to.
It is our very dear desire to welcome Keltham here, but we know of no particular reason he'd arrive tomorrow, or next week. If you'd like we can notify you when he does."
"Mortal memories do fade in time, and this vision is fresh in me now as it may not be later. I came to Sothis by teleportation and did not tarry much along my way to you; we are still less than three hours from when I received Irori's thought. Were I you, I think I would speak of those guesses now."
"And yes, I should be much grateful for a Sending if Keltham or Carissa Sevar should appear here, or indeed any other students either may have taught; is pay needful for that?"
"I think it would make only a small part of what we owe you, rather.
Our primary theories of Keltham are either that he discovered some trove of knowledge on his own initiative, or that he came here from another world or another time where or when such knowledge is commonplace, and that the knowledge includes much of the secrets the gods are forbidden from speaking of, to mortals or even to their own followers, or maybe some power that allows stealing that knowledge - getting copies of books that are destroyed, for example, or books from the First Vault, or books from another world or another time. He didn't exist, to the eyes of Golarion's gods, a week ago. Abadar, immediately on noticing him, paid Asmodeus not to engage in any of the misconduct to which Asmodeus and his followers tend, and the Asmodeans took Keltham to a secret facility for a secret project they are calling Project Lawful. For some reason the primary participants in it are Carissa Sevar, a former third-circle weapons enchanter at the Worldwound who may be the first person to have run across Keltham, and nine girls from the graduating class at Ostenso's academy of magic, who by now are rumored in Cheliax to have spectacular powers, and indeed seem to."
Pause for questions.
"Keltham is out of his accustomed place, and striving to overcome the disadvantage at which that places him, and also striving to use - what that makes him. Another world, another time, either would fit. I suppose that to gain a strange power might also remove a man from his accustomed place in the order of things, but that does not feel right, it is not enough to describe Keltham."
"What sort of spectacular powers?"
"The most bizarre rumor out of Cheliax was that in the palace in Egorian, any time a surprising thing happened to you, a Project Lawful girl would show up with cake. Delicious cake. It seemed ridiculously improbable, to us, but - possible to check, which many of the rumors weren't - so we sent a team to quietly and legally book an inn room near the palace, and planned to contact them truthfully later that day with the news that one of them, whose wife was in labor when they departed, had just become a new father.
The cake girl showed up. We'd intended to Plane Shift out with her, and ask her if she'd defect for any price. She was Dimension Anchored, counterspelled the team's attempted Teleport out without her, insisted they all eat some cake, and then left."
"Egorian is not within the interdiction zone, then? Perhaps I should go to Egorian and try to learn some new trick worthy of celebration? I would not mind having some cake as the price of that conversation."
"...is what I might otherwise say, but it rings wrongly to me. At least as something that would be true of Carissa Sevar. For her to learn something that interested Irori, it would be - a hard, long path for her to walk, by which she gained power that was truly part of herself and not grafted onto her like a cleric's powers."
"Keltham should not be - to Carissa Sevar - somebody that she can touch like a Starstone, and gain the ability to counterspell Teleports and hear a call for celebration."
"I am suspicious of whether the cake girl would appear for me; or if she did appear, would have anything truly to do with Keltham; or if she did have to do with Keltham, would know anything of his that interested Irori. That being so it is not quite worth the risk of Malediction."
"I appreciate that assessment. It did not seem right to us, either, though it did push us towards - being far more unsure what is going on. The thing that inspired Abadar to such initial concern for Keltham was a sense that Keltham saw the world in a manner more akin to Abadar's than any human alive ever has. Perhaps that confers...cake-related superpowers...in some cases, but it isn't, fundamentally, about cake-related superpowers.
Anyway we are confident Keltham is back in the interdiction zone, though Project Lawful is reportedly still active in Egorian. For a brief time after the godwar ended, Abadar favored and provided resources and impressions towards plans to somehow communicate with Keltham; then he ceased participation in developing them. And Sevar is, from what Irori observed, with Keltham.
I have no idea what to make of the report that Sevar went through some horror at the hands of some powerful Chelish entity that meant to destroy her, only to emerge unharmed and rejoin Keltham only hours later. Well, the first part's not surprising. Is it possible that Irori's intervention inspired the entity to not destroy her, for some reason?"
He frowns at his notes, scribbles some things. "They made her forget it, or it was a test and she approved of being so tested, or they possess very fine control of the scars they leave on a mind, and weren't aiming for those, or it's a Project Lawful superpower, or something I'm not thinking of."
"If I were going to make up my own answers, I'd guess that Keltham is out of his time, and a future worshipper of Abadar as He will then become known. Perhaps with some knowledge of Irori's teachings likewise from that time? Or no, I have said a foolish and over-worshipful thing; not Irori's teachings, the teachings from however many have by then ascended. There should be some fair number such, if their teachings are less fragmented and over-narrowed than those we have of only Irori."
"If there is still something - time-twisted, about Keltham - it might explain Sevar's survival with too little harm. It might explain how the cake girl knew where to find your emissaries."
"To be clear, this does not feel at all like something that was told or hidden within my vision. Whether it would have been within my vision, if it were true - I can't guess."
"Oh, it would not surprise me in the least to hear that today's Cheliax is little remembered in five thousand years. They have been around for only seventy. And even Nidal, which has more centuries than every of their years, is now falling at last."
"...that he is signing compacts upon compacts for her soul, on the other hand, you would think would be more of a tipoff. Why do you believe him deceived? Cheliax could offer much to a man out of his time, if he had almost anything left in the way of worldly desire at all."
"We could offer most of the same without him going to Hell about it! And one with valuable knowledge would not go to the Church of Asmodeus to negotiate compacts for its sale, not if Asmodeus is remembered at all in their time; and Abadar thinks that Keltham does not yet know the names his god is called, or anyone he could contact with Sending for further questions.
My current best guess about the girls is that they were part of Cheliax's offer to him, but an offer that I think must have been accompanied by some deception."
"I cannot see Hell defeated utterly, no, not in five thousand years. I can imagine Asmodeus forced to renegotiate the way He treats with mortals not aligned to Him, if a hundred or a thousand ascended joined with Irori to enforce that on Asmodeus. Perhaps Keltham grew up too ignorant of his time's history to realize what it meant to treat with Asmodeus in the days before his days."
This does leave the question of why Keltham would not know Abadar's name. She hopes on behalf of her hosts that nothing unfortunate happened to Him, but Derrina herself will not mourn overmuch if it was so.
"I can imagine it," says Merenre, but he sounds slightly dissatisfied. "I am not sure it much reduces my confusion.
The things rumored of Sevar are that she is not a third circle wizard at all, that she is the discoverer of Keltham, that she is running the whole of Project Lawful, that she is a Princess of Hell and devils die for speaking her name..."
"Carissa Sevar is growing at her own pace; and what she has already attained out of wizardry, if that was previously her path, she will not abandon so lightly. Whether she discovered Keltham - I cannot say. Running all of Project Lawful - I cannot say. Princess of Hell seems quite unlikely; I think Irori would notice and be able to say something about that."
"Ah."
"No, she might not. Probably would not. It is not the sort of thing Irori would tell her even if Irori had a way to make Himself clear about it. Irori would not urge her out of Cheliax, only try to ensure that her own steps could carry her out in time if that was where her Way led."
"So perhaps she has started hoping to escape Hell - not a safe thing to hope, in Cheliax - and made arrangements with Keltham that are not threatening to Cheliax as they look so unlikely. Or - perhaps it is meant as communication with Abadar, who can see compacts when they are properly done in the spirit of transparent trade."
"We, too, desire that," Merenre says, tiredly. "Though mostly because it is a great harm, to one with an innate instinct like Abadar's, to find themselves trading with those who will deceive them comprehensively. ...and, we believe, a great harm to one who would ask a country for a dozen pretty young women, if they give them to him rather than lay out by what commitments he can win them."
"If Keltham is the sort of man to care about that at all, one may hope he is more aware than Osirion that it may lie within a country's power to give him the bodies of women, but that their affection he must win for himself regardless. And if he is not so aware, well, he is yet elsewise a man whom a woman of Irori would respect enough to look to as her teacher. Let me think on the meaning of the word and the vision... yes. Sevar is not simply or only exploiting Keltham for his knowledge; she regards herself as a student of his ways."
Wait, is she about to have to fight her way out of a palace again.
"I have not been in your country very long, and could not really say. I suspect that the mores of Keltham and Carissa Sevar may be rather unlike those in Osirion. You should, perhaps, have somebody who grew up in Cheliax, and somebody who grew up in - Absalom, maybe, might be most like I imagine a city of the future being? Have them check over your gamblers' odds in all matters regarding Keltham as a man and the wizards as women."
It should preferably be a woman who grew up in Cheliax, but this she is not sure she is safe to tell a Prince.
"I have learned more caution on some forms of instruction than others." Namely, of nobles, inside palaces. "Still, I think I should say to you, if there is anything in your Way to which matters the ways of men and women, you must in time leave this Black Dome and journey beyond Osirion to lay your gambler's odds upon marriages in Taldor and courtesans in Absalom."
"I will ask my wife how she'd feel about that," he says, but without any particular defensiveness. "All right, things that look more likely: Keltham is from another world. Because we have now postulated that if he's from the future then it is true both that Abadar is little known there or perhaps gone, while His teachings are widespread, and that Asmodeus has no ill reputation, and those are weighty in themselves and do not predict each other. Sevar does not know that Irori's protection has been extended to her and is maneuvering without it; there exists a romance between her and Keltham; Keltham's world perhaps possesses the means to give people cake-related powers, but it is not the key of his significance either to Cheliax or to us. There might be other girls who like Sevar haven't sold their souls, though probably only if other gods purchased their protection - that should've been on there sooner..."
"Lest I have been unclear, I do not think I am told that there is romance between Keltham and Sevar. That is only what I thought upon hearing of the compact's details and imagining what it would mean to a woman of Irori, before you observed to me that she would not know of her protection. Their Ways are entangled, surely; but the only part of what I have been shown, that I have yet decoded, is that Keltham is to Sevar her own true teacher."
"...this whole matter sounds like there might be quite the convocation of gods and mortals if they all ever get the chance to sit down and settle matters over cake. I should like to be in the room where it happens, if it happens."
"I apologize. I understood you; but the branch of possibilities where there exists a romance grew greatly from what you said and observed. What you said of what the compact might mean, and that you said that she looks to him as a teacher, and shifts downstream of my growing confidence Cheliax gave him the girls as part of an effort to entice him to stay in Cheliax, which itself is accumulating because we lost a great deal of credence in theories where he was like a mini-Starstone, or has a transmissible superpower, or discovered some clever magic trick. - most people do not learn much from seeing all the odds move together, but I can show you, if you think you might."
"I too apologize then."
"If your Way is one that Irori can speak of so clearly to me, then it is worth a day of my pursuit at least. Show me your revised book when the new odds are ready, and I shall bet most of the money that I carry with me, and then afterwards you may instruct me on my follies - such would be my own guess at how I may best learn. Though also to be clear, I expect that Abadar has paid Irori for this service in full, and you owe me no such instruction."
"I expect He has. But the right Way for this is not for me to practice it alone in my office, it is for a hundred human minds to think on it from a hundred angles, and the truth to be its own teacher, and I would be delighted to have you try it."
He stands, gathers his books, remembers halfway to the door. "I'll have someone prepare a room for you, and you should ask of them whatever else you may require."
"I am interested also in the way of magic inside the Black Dome, for I can manage a cantrip or two of my own at least. I should like to be able to leave the Black Dome and return to it, that I may have a look about the academies I saw in Sothis. And forgive me, but if it is possible, I should prefer a simpler room beyond this palace, even if within the Dome."
She doesn't actually have a positive dislike of fancy bedrooms, but it makes a good cover for her acquired palatiophobia.
Derrina is feeling better about this journey now, than she was when she walked into this fancy meeting room; there were no fights along His Way here, no obvious tests of her skill, other than the Teleport to come here swiftly and having a few coins about herself. Now, however, she is feeling more like her real self has been well-suited to Irori's errand, and justly deserving of more than trivial reward for trivial effort. There may have been no fell monster to slay along the way -
- but Derrina does suspect, that not many who communed with Irori could have thus focused and looked within themselves and inquired and drawn out subtleties of that vision.
It is a relief, in a sense, but also an instruction in her folly, for she should have known all along that it would be so. If this task would have been a challenge suitable to some Irorian only with wealth enough to buy Teleports, and not much else needful about them, Irori would have given it to one such, who would have needed to exercise more effort along His Way and learned something more from walking it.
The morning mail arrives on the Project Lawful site, possibly now named Dragonfort.
Carissa Sevar finally receives a certain lightly enchanted dagger, suitable for a county's heiress to stab anyone who commented on her appearance; it was supposed to arrive a few evenings earlier, but there was that whole Nidal attack.
Asmodia is called over to the true temple to discuss some minor Security matter having to do with her family's relocation.
He can be found in one of the High Priestess's auxiliary offices, since that would be the appropriate venue for forwarding a Carissa-approved apology.
"So I've now realized exactly how clearly I wasn't thinking yesterday, and this would, in dath ilan, be considered an appropriate time for a girlfriend to whap her boyfriend if she deemed that necessary or simply pleasant."
He'll... hold off on deciding to feel comforted about that until he's actually apologized.
"Right, so. Remember why I started thinking, way way back, that there might be a hidden cleric of Zon-Kuthon somewhere in the villa?"
"Nothing's coming to mind, that you've done, which is that silly." Keltham leans into her a bit, though.
"I at least need to inform Jacint of the update Security-wise. In the increasingly incredibly-unlikely-seeming eventuality that there's a 'trope' in play, we could somehow have missed a Zon-Kuthon stealth cleric among one of the other girls present by Ione. Not you, not Pilar."
"How much of an apology is it to her and Governance, how do I give an apology like that in Cheliax?"
What a good question. It's not an apology to a superior, which she knows how to give; straightforward, precise, not earning further punishment by being extra trouble to correct. Apologies to trade partners aren't... a thing, if they didn't notice the mistake that speaks poorly of them, it's not on you. She can't say that. "Uh, I'd just tell her what you believe now, and that you think this should've been possible to catch sooner, and are willing to repay expenditures that happened because you didn't catch it sooner? If you are. Once you start making money, obviously, not now."
Subirachs receives this apology graciously and with perfect Bluff, asks Keltham to send in Sevar a few minutes after he's done for more post-Queen checkup - she needs to compose a quick report to the Grand High Priestess first, about this - and shoes him out.
Subirachs then silences her office and screams at the top of her lungs for half a minute, after which she feels only slightly better.
Part of her is wondering if now rechecking Sevar would show that she is not any more a hidden cleric.
What this means about Keltham and 'tropes', Subirachs can't begin to guess, she gives up, she has nothing to do except compose a report to Rugatonn and await instruction. Subirachs already sent off a report last night about the actually fairly alarming contents of Sevar's thought transcript, and was instructed in return that she should probably treat the continuing growth of Sevar's and Keltham's feelings as an unalterable fact of reality and try to arrange so that all roads leading there must inevitably lead Keltham to Asmodeus and Sevar away from Irori, which is not the most operationalizable advice she's ever received.
Carissa comes in for her post-Queen checkup. She looks better. She still feels off-balance but in a way she suspects will just be a permanent feature of her life. She has actually had fewer nightmares about being turned into a statue since it actually happened to her; it feels, in a way, like it was a bad nightmare, and one she now knows can never happen for real.
That said she is aware she's in line for a very serious punishment at this point and she's scared of that in a way she did not used to be scared of punishment.
Not quite fully recovered, but getting there; fit for all but the fullest of full duties. Probably still not somebody who ought to be tortured right this minute, if the Queen of Cheliax's painstaking work is to be treated with the respect it deserves, and in fact, rather stringently commands.
Apart from that, Carissa looks like somebody who thinks herself due for severe and painful rebuke. "Your fear is showing," Subirachs observes. "Is it for your feelings with Keltham yesterday, or have you erred or transgressed in some other way than that?"
"The Grand High Priestess has already told you that the improbability of your entanglement with Keltham and its escalation bespeaks the intervention of something with at least a shattered fragment of prophecy; 'tropes', or Nethys, but nothing else known to us. We are hoping that Asmodeus is aware of this, benefiting from it, though we are frightened and unsure; in the end we do not wish to smash whatever this is while our Lord seems to be perhaps being making use of it. If, indeed, it can be smashed by anything at all short of our Lord's direct assault, when it holds a fragment of prophecy and we do not."
"Only Aspexia Rugatonn is authorized to wholly reshape or destroy your feelings for Keltham, should that seem the wisest way. I am not."
Jacint reaches out a hand then, and strokes Carissa's cheek. "But if you have reached the point where you are feeling guilty, and knowing yourself worthy of punishment, out of your own faith," she says gently, knowing exactly how much fear she must be causing, but aiming to make it more than simple fear, "then I think I would be remiss in denying that to any faithful Asmodean. Is there any transgression you've committed, about which you've come to so feel?"
Carissa really needs to do something about the new phenomenon where her internal monologue gets all drowned out by a rush of internal screaming.
"It is not - a necessary consequence of my feeling love for him - that the thought occurred to me that I could tell him we should leave. I shouldn't have. It should be possible to endure whatever feelings without contemplating betrayal. It should not be possible for me to think of."
"I don't know, High Priestess! Maybe you don't care because it's not like it'd be hard to stop me, except Dis doesn't think I'm that interchangeable. Maybe you don't care because there's a plan, in which case, all right, I don't need to know the plan, I just don't want to fail it. Maybe - this is something I'm wrong about like I was wrong about how many people want to be perfected in the purifying flames of Hell, where almost no one does because we don't teach it right, where there's actually a massive epidemic of people contemplating treason and I didn't run into it all that often at the Worldwound only because most people are too broken to send to the Worldwound lest they immediately wander off and join the paladins! If the answer is that this isn't surprising, and doesn't portend poorly, then - that's good, I guess, for the mission - but this all feels like applying far too much cleverness in the wrong direction. Obviously you have to punish contemplation of defection so people stop it. ....but we don't know how, do we, we don't know how to make the rest of us into Pilar -"
"Stop, Carissa. You are letting your thoughts run too far ahead with complications," Jacint says, with a soft smile backed by enough Splendour that even Sevar might pause before concluding that, no, it wasn't sincere. Trying that hard to send the false message still sends a message in its own right. "The Queen, I was recently told, also now suspects that only Pilar will be able to become a true dath ilani out of our project. Why? Because the Queen thinks that among the important qualities of her own competence is that the Queen does not go about constantly terrified of thinking the wrong thing. It was part of why she felt it necessary to take her time to remake you, that she'd noticed your thoughts collapsing under the pressure of being read so often."
"That part of the Queen's work is not something I mean to undo. Nor even threaten, not today while her work is still recovering itself into its new shape."
"But do you understand why Pilar could do it so easily, this thing with which you struggle so? It's not that Pilar never thinks thoughts she knows might incur punishment. It's that, having thought such things, she knows her transgression, and desires to be punished to expiate her guilt. Not, necessarily, successfully corrected so that the thought never occurs to her again. Just punished. Pilar might wish for that correction, but she knows that only Hell has that power, and that for Hell she must wait."
"Would you still be afraid of punishment for your admittedly severe transgression of thought, if you asked yourself how much punishment would be required to ease your sense of transgression and make matters right between yourself and your faith, and did not ask yourself to what extremes you would need to be tortured to break you and remake you to correct and erase the thought forever? Answer honestly; I can have your thoughts read, if I like, but these words I think it important for you to speak with your own lips, whatever they may be."
Carissa is being entirely honest, terrifyingly vulnerable, doing everything she can to give the Church what they need to know to fix her.
"....I don't know," she says. "I hadn't - thought about it that way - what does it serve Asmodeus to punish me if it doesn't fix me, in what sense ought my guilt be eased if I haven't stopped being someone who could make the error again -"
"When her superiors punish her, Pilar then knows for certain that what she did has been deemed wrong, and ought not to be repeated, and that we have the power to inflict that pain on her confirms to her soul that we are her superiors. She does not need to be certain of our infallibility, to trust us so; it is wrong because we say so and we are Asmodeus's appointed tyrants over her. The reason why Pilar even needs us to be a good Asmodean, when her faith is already stronger than our own, is not that Pilar would flinch too much to punish herself if she decided all her own punishments. What would break Pilar if she stayed in Elysium is that she could never feel certain of her guesses about what is a wrong thought, wrong act, if she had nobody like us above her with the power to punish her will-she-nil-she and thereby make something be permitted or forbidden with certainty. Once we have spoken, she need but obey, and if there is fault from there it will not be hers. For this reason, among others, did she return to us from Elysium, I think."
"Oh, it almost always is."
"But not when you are given an order and follow it correctly."
"Those such as Pilar can be too greedy about chasing that, even when it might better serve Asmodeus for them to use their own initiative. I expect this was among the Most High's thoughts when she granted Pilar so much authority in the palace two days ago."
"But even after using her own initiative, and erring, it is possible for Pilar to be made clean. Because we, her superiors, tell her that she erred, we tell her how much punishment she has incurred, and she undergoes that punishment, and implicitly we have told her she deserves no more punishment than that, and therefore it is true, and once punished she is finished. You have done this for her; did you not understand what you were doing?"
"No, I did, but I thought that she needed - us to be genuinely competent enough to be actually correct, in the punishment we assigned - I felt resentful, about my punishment from the Queen, before I saw the codes and realized that she was just correct, and had identified real things - and I imagined Pilar to have that same failing, I guess -"
"It certainly helps if we are competent. I am not confident of what might happen to Pilar's faith if she served a string of superiors far less intelligent and competent than herself, bumbling and failing in their service to our Lord, letting severe transgressions go by and punishing what she knew to be rightful. This is among the reasons to exercise due care in commanding the slaves more valuable to our Lord; they are, in the end, His possessions and not ours, if they are things of noticeable value at all. Though never forget, it is heresy to care whether they are happy, it matters only that they remain useful."
"But again. Pilar's severest transgression by far was her appointing Paxti as Cheliax's most deadly Project Lawful girl, which she did out of fondness for another, at cost to Lord Asmodeus's interests, as an overt act and not a thought, with flawed intent and not just flawed execution. You did not try to assign Pilar enough punishment for that to break her, remake her, and drive every trace of fondness for others out of her heart forever, so that Hell on her arrival would have nothing left to do. You did not try to assign her a severe enough punishment to leave her in horror that the pain might ever return if she repeated that behavior. You assigned her a punishment severe enough that her soul would know it had made a serious mistake. That Pilar then knows this deep down is what does most of the work in correcting her, and improving her, somewhat, rather than all at once for the rest of her life in a single torture session."
"You are afraid of me doing something to you that you would never be foolish enough to try with Pilar, and I would say that you must consider me a very great incompetent, but I am well aware that it is actually just because you are stupid and unable to see past your own fears."
Of course. Carissa is both important and, now, at risk of being a traitor; she should assume they are going to great lengths to mindread her. She regrets obliging them to expend the effort. "I know, High Priestess. I am very annoyed about it and it is one of the first things I want to learn how to fix in people."
"I am not going to punish that stray thought just now, about your own cleverness. It would disturb the Queen's work if I did. The only reason I am not saying a similar thing about your thought of escape is that you know it was a transgression and you are, I think, beginning to become concerned not simply about the fearful fantasy of what must be done to drive it out of your mind forever, but about what you must do to feel right with your faith."
"Or perhaps not. It is important not to rush that aspect of your spiritual growth. But when, however, somebody can be corrected through torment by which they know what is made right or wrong, and not torment so fearful to them that they dare not do the like again, they are then less damaged by that correction."
"I will continue to observe your spiritual health and place the judgment of that disloyal thought in abeyance for now; the Queen's work is still solidifying into its new shape, and to punish unspoken thoughts, I suspect, might be especially dangerous to it. Perhaps in a few more days we shall revisit the issue, especially if you find then that you are ashamed or feel that you have not been set right and made clean." Or sooner, if Sevar's thoughts show her to be dwelling on it in fear fantasy, but this of course Subirachs does not say out loud.
"You could not," she lies. "You do not know all that Security has done. I do not know all that Security has done. I doubt the Queen or the Grand High Priestess know all that Security has done separately rather than collectively. And more importantly, Hell owns your soul already, whether or not any particular devil does. Do not be mistaken about where the value of those three Wishes or your ability to bargain for them comes from; they are not the value of your more certainly coming to Lord Asmodeus, but your value to some high devil of Dis who gains you against their rivals."
"Your actual value to Lord Asmodeus I would not even dare guess, Chosen."
"Meritxell sincerely desires to impress people. This is unfortunately as close as she comes to having any innate aptitude for submission. She is all pride and no slavery. If Keltham expects submission of Meritxell and the expectation is clear to her, she is apt to show him what he expects, to impress him. She could play a clear role we give her, to impress us. But I am not sure what his reading-skills will make of that... it is such a ridiculous inconvenience, that! I keep wondering if it might just be a matter of enhancing Splendour high enough to fool him, but, the trouble is, I can think of no safe way to trial any such method, what if it fails! I cannot, without great efforts, even try to make Meritxell be in actuality what Keltham would want to see, in regards to being aroused by pain or domination. Meritxell would have no trouble performing in every aspect and would even delight in that performance, as she delights in succeeding at anything, but I cannot see a clear and sure road to having Keltham perceive that she is aroused by it."
"I am also somewhat concerned that if Meritxell is constantly around Keltham, her pride will bite at her if Keltham desires her to be things she is not in truth - that if he visibly desires her to be a 'real' submissive and not just the outer shell of one, then, even if she fools him, she will still feel that she is not doing well enough. Not that her unhappiness would ordinarily be a problem, of course, but if it starts to interfere with her arousal in ways that Keltham can read, it becomes a problem."
" - yeah. I will - think on what to tell Keltham, given that. I suspect it's not worth risking a lie, he's going to eventually get suspicious if everyone seems to have my Worldwound problem - we have presumably got some girls who have a reasonable normal amount of masochism?"
If that weren't true, she would suspect divine interference! Jacint readily lists several girls all of whom, if they caught Keltham's eye, would require hardly any work to make into most reasonable things Carissa would want them to be; and more girls that could be managed with more work.
Asmodia isn't one of them, Ione is in a strange Nethysian limbo with respect to what can be asked of her, and, if you add Meritxell to that set, those are all of the girls after Carissa Sevar who would be the most obvious bets to catch Keltham's eye in terms of demonstrated talent.
Does Asmodeus's Chosen Keltham Expert think it's possible to line up Keltham with a next girl in virtue of her being, say, slutty? Subirachs can easily turn Yaisa or Peranza slutty, and others could be managed with only slightly more work.
Probably, especially if they set it up and then have Carissa indisposed for some reason that evening. He is a teenage boy and in Carissa's assessment vulnerable to cornering him to tell him how badly you want him, and so on.
Asmodia is a bad idea until Keltham's actually Evil, unless they hear otherwise from her custodians in Hell who might've had something in mind about this. Jacint has authorization to get started on encouraging some girls who seem like a good fit. "Though mind whether you think it's affecting them in a way that'll affect their performance in class; I need to keep track of that, and it might be a higher priority than arranging romances for Keltham."
"I suppose that if I pointed out how much easier this would be if we could select new students for him on the basis of their prior sexualities, you would say that it... won't work for him, if we rebuild the current party? If we dismiss all the less-achieving students to Egorian's 'Project Lawful', and replace them with equally intelligent but more submissive wizards taken from all Cheliax? How much is Ostenso of all our wizard academies, I confess I do not know."
"It would be easier than solving some of our other problems the hard way. Though they would need to be caught up on Keltham's earlier lectures, and would be behind on... whatever strange cumulative exposure it is that turns people into Project Lawful girls, if you'll forgive the phrase."
"I'll inquire of the other wizard academies to see what they have in the way of attractive female easily moldable submissive masochists who are talented mathematicians."
This will start some additional rumors among wizard academy administrators, even if the request is highly classified and carefully disguised not to come from Project Lawful.
These rumors, to be clear, will not be true. But somebody, somewhere, at some point, is going to use the phrase "math pets".
Keltham has been running around blessing random girls with his wisdom while Carissa is busy.
Literally; he prayed for 6 Owl's Wisdoms this morning, using all of his 3rds on that too. That's enough to get half of them today, and the rest can hopefully endure whatever cumulative personality-structural stresses they've got going plus another day of latent dath ilani exposure. People get deprioritized if they've otherwise had an Owl's Wisdom not too long ago, including before joining the project. Oddly enough, few of them ever have. Oh, and after being tapped you're supposed to go to your bedroom to contemplate and maybe write notes to yourself, on Keltham's theory.
Security is a little unhappy about how this requires lots of Detect Thoughts being used up to monitor the girls separately, but they haven't ordered all the girls to get this done in a single place where they can all be monitored together, because for all they know the part where Keltham thinks they need to be in a quiet separate bedroom is actually important.
Ione is already pretty wise takaral! Apparently being even wiser causes her to complete her sentences with takaral much more often takaral. It's possible that she's actually working through something faster takaral. She hopes so takaral.
Apart from that she doesn't experience any startling revelations about herself or her relation to the universe takaral. She's a Nethysian now rather than Asmodean, and that has relieved all the stresses she can see in herself even with +4 Wisdom takaral. She reviews her notes from Keltham's lectures to see if anything shakes loose with more Owl's Wisdom, but it doesn't particularly takaral; if there's dath ilani special abilities that cast from Wisdom, the way Keltham warned, Ione apparently hasn't absorbed those yet. Takaral.
Oh, hey, that wasn't a natural takaral takaral. It was actually Ione's mind completing it because it thought it was supposed to be there takaral. She'll have to watch out for that takaral. But she shouldn't be distracted by thoughts like that; she should be reviewing her notes on dath ilani thinking instead. Takaral.
Asmodia gets in on it, barely on time, and manages to give Keltham an inquiring look about whether it's her turn that hopefully didn't come across as being pleading or requesting, which might look suspicious to anyone considering the course of events later.
Once she's been tapped, she diligently goes off to her room to think, planning to review Keltham-lecture notes so that her thoughts won't look too suspiciously empty.
The Wisdom isn't there to provide realizations, it's there to provide an excuse for having had them.
Her plans end up becoming a whole lot more refined anyways as she thinks of them. She puts most of the thoughts outside of her barrier, it is fine and good for Security to see those, and starts writing.
Gregoria is pretty sure that you're not supposed to get an Owl's Wisdom and then try to think yourself into a devil, or into someone who has some idea no one's ever had before. She's pretty sure that doesn't work. It's like how you're not supposed to take a theology concept introduced in church and go running off inventing lots of things with it; you don't actually understand it that well, it's just the illusion of such deep insight.
Instead of that she'll pray. Wisdom is how clerics cast so it probably makes you better at praying.
Yaisa tries to think deep thoughts but doesn't particularly come up with any. She is aware she's not a very deep person. Sharp but not deep, her mother used to say, which is the best kind of person, a good wizard who doesn't get out of their lane. Yaisa hopes that it's also the right kind of person for Project Lawful.
So, up to 8 minutes for his Wisdom to wear off, at up to 2 minutes per caster circle, and then some more time to think after that if necessary, and then they should reconvene for another run on Probability... Keltham probably should have thought to set that schedule before sending people off to their bedrooms to think. Well, he'll send somebody around to knock on doors for a 5-minute warning in about 20 minutes, say.
Note from Asmodia to Sevar, delivered by Security after Sevar leaves Subirachs's office:
Keltham tapped six girls with Owl's Wisdom and told them to go off to their bedrooms to think afterwards. Asmodia was one of them. This report was written in haste under the Owl's Wisdom but completed after it ended.
Asmodia has now realized that when she responded to Keltham's inquiry about her superpowers by asking 'Why is everyone asking me that?' this was a potentially catastrophic error, if Keltham had not believed that the Crown was supposed to be aware of his speculation. Asmodia had not been briefed on that aspect one way or another, so the correct decision for Asmodia would have been to take the lesser risk of not mentioning that anyone else had asked her; even though this would have also been a risk because, if Keltham did expect others to know, real-Asmodia would have behaved differently from alter-Asmodia. Asmodia notes in her defense that she had very little time to think when Keltham sprung that question on her, and that she erred on the side of not lying, even though concealment was the correct course given what she didn't know.
Asmodia notes that she believes the fault for this narrowly averted event lies not only with herself, but also that nobody briefed her on Keltham's expectations about the Crown order to check her for superpowers, in particular, whether Keltham was supposed to know that this event had happened.
Asmodia registers her suspicion that too much information is being hidden from people who aren't Keltham. This isn't an ordinary project where people can know only what they need to know, it's a project built around an intricate fragile lie and everybody who isn't being lied-to needs to know what's going on with every part of the lie at every point.
Asmodia notes that she would probably have tried to deny this whole chain of thought to herself if she wasn't on the new only-Taldorian-punishment regime, shutting it down well before it got to the point of Asmodia thinking about having done something worthy of punishment somewhere Security could hear those thoughts and censure her if she didn't report them. Initially starting to look for and think about what you might have done wrong is dangerous, if you will need to report any new errors you find and get punished for those. Asmodia is also being more honest in reporting what she sees as potential flaws in what's going on around her, because she expects less to be punished for that risk if she questions her teacher and proves to be wrong.
Asmodia registers Prediction: Tonia will either fail wholly to master dath ilani thought, or will be tortured beyond the point of usefulness for heretical thoughts, or will have dath ilani thought successfully tortured out of her as something inside her realizes that she loses points each time she plays the game.
Asmodia means no insubordination by any of this and will obviously accept instruction and correction if she is mistaken.
Asmodia has also realized that she is acting very visibly different from her supposed alter-Cheliax self. Alter-Asmodia is incredibly curious what the Abyss Keltham was talking about, which real-Asmodia also is, but alter-Asmodia does not have any reason not to be talking to Keltham about this already, because alter-Asmodia isn't scared quiet by Security or Sevar or concerns that something huge is going on that she is not supposed to know about. Alter-Asmodia wants to know if Keltham has a way for her to get superpowers next time she's in Hell. Alter-Asmodia asked him about it at breakfast in front of all the other girls. Please advise.
Well, the experiment is bearing fruit. Might be poisoned fruit, but that's how it goes, with experiments.
The big constraint on briefing all the girls more is that there's only so many excuses that can be manufactured to be having group meetings without Keltham. Carissa suggests (to Maillol) that they get all the girls Rings of Sustenance, and then can have briefings during those precious hours that will be unaccounted for to Keltham.
In the meantime she can talk to Asmodia about why the Crown thought she might have superpowers.
"Hello again. You wanted to know why Keltham thought you'd have superpowers. This isn't a very satisfactory answer, but Keltham has a category of theories formed based on - reasoning from the fact he landed here, and not other places, and now and not other times, and for confusing reasons it makes predictions like 'he'll have a fight with the Queen over his girlfriend' and 'Pilar will mysteriously go to Elysium', and he predicted you'd have superpowers."
"So to be clear we've been piecing things together from several different sources, he doesn't explain it much. But - it's like he thinks he's in a romance novel, only he's not accusing us of setting it up, just, uh, some entity, when he died, having put him in a romance novel instead of putting him in different contexts than that. And in a dath ilani romance novel, the different girls you date would all have fascinating secret backstories you had to sleep with them to understand, so a universe where we all have fascinating secret backstories is more like the kind of universe someone would stick him in. And in the dath ilani romance novel, all the girls fulfill different aspects of his sexuality, so, when I said that I'm kind of neutral on being raped he predicted that one of the other girls would be into that and have a fascinating secret backstory. And here Pilar is.
He, uh, ended up agreeing to rent me to the Queen so they wouldn't have to fight over me, is how that ended."
In fact Asmodia's mind is repeatedly repeating "I now have additional questions" so loudly that she is having trouble figuring out what any of those Additional Questions are.
"So like - am I wrong that not a single one of us had any secret backstory before we started working on Project Lawful? We only started getting secret backstories once Keltham appeared? I'm not actually going anywhere with this question, just - I don't know what I should ask -"
"What's giving us those backstories, according to Keltham? In real life it's Nethys for Ione, Cayden Cailean for Pilar, Asmodeus maybe for you, we don't have backstories because we're in a romance novel, we're getting backstories because of things gods are doing to us - why are all those gods doing it to us, going along with setting up the romance novel for Keltham, you're the only one who might know, Asmodeus does things for reasons even if Nethys and Cayden Cailean don't -"
Asmodia realizes that she's not talking exactly like somebody who doesn't have anything special about herself, and stops talking and looks like she's waiting for an answer.
"You're right; the group of girls that Cheliax gathered was not particularly remarkable, the reason it looks to Keltham like his girls have backstories is that the gods want us very badly, for some reason. I don't understand the reason, exactly. A devil said we are valued in Dis because it is thought we might be able to train better devils. But that can't be Cayden Cailean's reason or Nethys' reason."
"...I can't even tell whether I'm supposed to say that I know you're just guessing that, or -"
"Maybe my special thing is now that everyone thinks I'm special and all the other special Project Lawful girls invite me to whatever special court sessions you have while everybody tries to figure out which superpowers I've really -"
"Or maybe I could go back to Hell and get superpowers if I asked for them -"
"Should I just ask a lot of questions to Keltham? Which parts of this is Keltham supposed to know we know, which parts is Asmodia supposed to know, I think that's the most important thing I'm supposed to ask right away."
"Keltham knows that he's aired his tropes theory to us and that we took it seriously, though he's currently leaning towards it not being true and I do not want him encouraged in thinking it's true, at all, zero. You can do things Asmodia who had an average time in alter-Hell would do on learning she should've come back with superpowers, though mind that I don't think you particularly want Keltham's personal attention. - not because he's cruel, I wish, but because he can tell whether people are enjoying themselves with him or not.
Asmodia has probably been told that the Crown asked if she had superpowers, and then been asked by Keltham, and then maybe asked a Security if the question from the Crown was classified or if she's allowed to say she was asked it, and now has further questions."
"Clarification - I'm to tell Keltham that I asked him 'why is everybody asking me that' and then realized I was actually supposed to have asked Security about the classification status of the Crown inquiry first and that's why I didn't follow up earlier...?"
"I also don't understand our mission goal in general. Do we believe his tropes theory, and are we trying to extract information about tropes theory from Keltham, while concealing anything from him that he could use to realize the tropes theory is actually true?"
"Yes, if that's the kind of reason alter-Asmodia might've had; if you'd rather she have some other reason give it and I will probably authorize it.
Our mission goal is to, if there are tropes, know about the tropes so we can refer them to the Grand High Priestess and never think about them again, and for Keltham to think tropes are unlikely." Because when he thinks they're likely he has a nightmarish freakout about how everything is fake and it's very stressful for me, personally.
"If tropes are real, then what they did, is look over all the possible starting conditions that would produce the romance novel they wanted, and put Keltham into those starting conditions, such that gods would decide of their own free will to sponsor girls in Keltham's harem. ...I think. Keltham says we don't know enough prerequisites to truly understand tropes."
"I request orders. My belief about what alter-Asmodia did at breakfast stands, but this whole situation is beyond what I know how to determine a best action for. I am not confident in my ability to extract useful information about tropes from Keltham, but can try if so ordered."
It's sounding like Keltham isn't her sponsor, not that it would've made any sense. And if someone somewhere cared about her, it's because that was something true in the universe before Keltham got there, somehow, and she doesn't have any obvious avenues for figuring who that is.
"At this time my going assumption is that no one can, maybe unless or until we master dath ilanism. Your only orders are to not tell any new and innovative lies and not to suggest to him that you've got superpowers, or arguable superpowers, or things that Hell alone can say might or might not be superpowers; if you want to get close to him and ask questions, you may, and if you want to have no relationship with him outside class, you may do that too."
"Learn dath ilanism, don't make Keltham suspicious, it seems to me that these goals are served by asking Keltham questions about superpowers as alter-Asmodia would do, maybe with - alter-Asmodia focusing more on asking on how all this strangeness interacts with dath ilani reasoning and Law? I will do that at some appropriate point, unless countermanded."
She's got it already, but that's not an acceptable answer. What is alter-Asmodia's answer... why hasn't she said it already...
"Keltham's ways of thought would not be balked by my - problem. He would see many solutions, some of them not disloyal ones, maybe even ones less severe than my ceasing to be. So it is to my benefit to either understand those ways of thought myself, or that you do, or that Keltham be successfully corrupted to where I may plainly ask that riddle of him in return for my loyalty to him under Cheliax. Though, I did clearly hear that I am not myself assigned to that corruption."
It is in fact kind of notable to Carissa that Asmodia did not say it already, doesn't seem very motivated by it anymore.
Maybe it's because Hell wasn't as bad as she thought and she feels silly for having wanted to die rather than go there.
Maybe.
"That's all, dismissed, we're considering whether and how to brief the girls more."
Dismissed, she goes.
She got through the whole thing without having to take the Gorthoklek authorization out of the pocket where she is terribly aware of it resting. That's probably as close as she can come to victory here.
Well, and she has explicit permission to talk to Keltham.
She was testing something of a theory, there, in fact, which was that she could just behave like a very good Asmodean and somehow end up being assigned to talk to Keltham anyways, or given permission for that, even if she wasn't trying to steer there.
She's a Project Lawful girl with a mysterious background, after all.
She's got to end up involved with Keltham somehow.
Even if she's incredibly unlikely to be attracted to him, and Keltham can tell that about her, they will, somehow, end up doing something that would happen in a romance novel.
Since the gods are repeatedly intervening around them to suddenly set up a romance novel.
...A dath ilani romance novel. They might be very different. Asmodia has not read any Chelish romance novels, in fact, though she's heard their plots discussed. She is not sure whether this is a disadvantage or an advantage in this situation.
She's maybe going to have to think about this again sometime when she has Owl's Wisdom and Fox's Cunning. And maybe more lectures on Law.
"Greetings, my esteemed co-researchers. If you're wondering why I didn't lecture you more yesterday, it's because I was being a complete idiot to the point where I don't actually want to talk about it. Is that dignified of me? No. Having established this point, let us now continue with exploring further into Probability."
"So far we've talked about two of Probability's - let's call them Law-fragments, the 'Baseline' term won't translate easily if at all."
"The first Law-fragment was that, if you're rating how likely things are to happen or be true, even if it's just on a scale from 1 to 12 where nothing on the scale is labeled, it still seems pretty reasonable that you can't say it's more likely that strictly more" propositions "things are true. Even if the scale isn't labeled enough that we know where to put a chance that's half some other chance, it can't be less likely that we have beef for lunch, than that we have beef for lunch and a spun coin lands Queen." (Keltham has of course returned Carissa's gold coin to her by this point; you can tell, because he still has cleric powers. He has now exchanged some of his platinum for gold, silver, and copper, and has his own coins about him.)
"Even if you're Ione and can predict the coinflips, beef and Queen cannot be more likely than beef whether or not Queen. And you might think this Law-fragment so obvious and trivial as to be useless; but in fact, most of you collectively - perhaps not all individually, who can say - must have been thinking in a way that violated the principle."
"The second Law-fragment I taught you was incomplete, because I'm running through all of these things way too fast, to get to proof-of-concept profits as early as possible. We could say that this fragment is about comparing estimates of how likely things are, to what actually happens. It generalizes the way that, for example... actually I should just quickly run through this earlier part, because you wouldn't have heard it explicitly even if you understood implicitly, because Golarion."
Keltham first writes on the wall-whiteboard, "Keltham is now holding a silver coin in his left hand."
He then obtains a silver coin to go alongside the copper one, showing both to the class; mixes them behind his back, selects one in his left hand, and holds that out as a fist.
"What is truth?" Keltham then asks the class. "And in particular, what is the... truth-value... of the sentence I just wrote? I'm not asking whether it's true or false, you don't know that right now, I'm asking what it means to say that the sentence is true or false."
"Blank looks, check. It's okay, you're probably using this fragment of Law correctly, you just don't know it to yourself. I should probably be playing some sort of game to make this point, but all the ones I know are literally aimed at five-year-olds and would be excruciatingly slow soooo."
"You're maintaining, in your own mind - something like the scaffolding Carissa used to reach out to her spellsilver, between my hand, and the writing on this wall. Only much less complicated than Carissa's scaffold, and also the correspondence is something represented inside you, rather than out in the air where you can see it with Detect Magic. If there's a silver in my hand, right now, you'd say the writing on the wall is true. If there's a copper in my hand, or for that matter, nothing, you'd say the writing on the wall is false. Or if you wanted to be more precise about it yet, you'd say that the meaning of the writing or the claim the writing talks about in Taldane is false."
"When your mind maintains a correspondence of this type, it does a ton of intricate work in the background. For example..."
Keltham opens his hand, showing that in there is a copper coin, and then replaces it with a silver one.
"First you learned that the writing on the wall was false, and then, the writing suddenly turned true. How can this be? Is truth unstable? No, it's that the word 'now' in the phrase 'Keltham is now holding' is a powerful word in terms of the scaffolding your mind builds. Carissa decided while she was building her scaffold to move the spellsilver a little further away, and then stretched her scaffold to reach out to it. The scaffold of meaning between my hand and the wall-writing, as your mind maintains it, instructed by that word 'now', is something that constantly slides through time. In every moment of time, the wall-writing has a different meaning, there is a different fact-in-the-world that makes it be true or false, because it is talking about the contents of my hand in that moment of time - according to the scaffolding your mind is maintaining inside itself; it's not that the writing on the wall is so complicated and powerful, but that you are."
"To extent that meaning is fixed, it always has fixed truth or falsity; to the extent it seems like truth or falsity is unstable, we can always deduce that it's the meaning that's really unstable, that something is wrong in the scaffold we build in our minds, not that reality itself has anything being simultaneously so and not-so."
"If it sounds like I'm saying something stupidly simple, you probably understood it right, yeah. The point is to be explicitly aware of the scaffolding your mind builds, which is something that other understandings build upon."
"For example..."
Keltham reaches behind his back, mixes coins, puts one into his left hand.
"If I now say there's a 50/100 probability that there's a silver coin in my left hand, is that true? Is it false?"
"Hm, yes, and actually, let me close my eyes for a moment -"
Keltham closes his eyes, opens his hand to show the contents, closes his hand, opens his eyes again.
"If any of you now say that there's a 1/2 probability the coin in my hand is silver, you'd be wrong, actually in this case lying. But if I say the coin has 1/2 probability of being silver, I'm being honest. How can this be? It's the same hand in both cases. How can the same words be dishonest when spoken by one person, and honest when spoken by another?"
"Being right is more than just being honest. If I said I was certain my left hand contained a gold coin, you could determine whether I was being honest just by examining my own brain, if you had magic for doing that, or if you're Nethys - it's so incredibly convenient for these lectures that your world has one of those, by the way. The point is that you don't have to look inside my hand at all, to determine whether I'm being honest. If I say there's a gold coin inside my hand, and I believe that because I suddenly went insane a few seconds ago, I'm being honest. You have to look inside my hand to determine whether I'm right."
"When I say that the coin in my hand is 1/2 likely to be silver, I'm honestly reporting my state of knowledge about what's in it. Other people can have different states of knowledge, that they could also report honestly. In the scaffolding we construct, my probability of this coin being silver, is not just a fact about the coin, it's a fact about me and what I know."
"If I don't know whether this coin is silver or copper, that's not a fact about the coin, it's a fact about me. The coin itself is just silver or copper. Only people, only minds, can ever be uncertain; reality just is. If I've got a map of a city - you've got maps here, right? - and part of the map is left blank, that just means I don't know what's there, it's not that I go into the city and find a huge emptiness where the blank section of map is."
"Of which it is also said in dath ilan: All confusion and dismay exists in the mind, not in reality, for a blank map does not correspond to a blank territory."
All of this seems like it is sort of coming in sideways to the main way truth is complicated in Cheliax which is that you shouldn't believe heretical things. Like, where do you put heresy in that framework. It's a thing in the territory that makes mortals be worse and stupider? It's a map error? It's a translation error between reality and your map?
(The class is silent.)
"Well, you could take a class of high-disagreeability six-year-olds, and expose them to different information about the same play-mystery, and see if you could get them to shout at each other about how they were lying about the probabilities."
"Or actually - possibly there's a simple thing that I guess people in Golarion actually could be doing wrong, if they haven't had any training? Which is thinking you believe a bunch of sentences, where your scaffolding is broken to the point where you can't even take the sentence and figure out, what is it in the outer world, beyond the sentence itself, that would make them be true or false or righter or wronger? See what's the equivalent of Keltham's left hand and 'now' and the kind of coin that has to be inside it?"
"If you were six-year-olds, I could come in and very sincerely tell you about which animals were or weren't wakalixes, and test you on which animals were or weren't wakalixes to make sure you could repeat the answer correctly, and then mix you with a different class of six-year-olds who'd been told different animals were wakalixes, by a different teacher. And see how long we could manipulate you into fighting about whose teacher had probably been more trustworthy or honest, before anybody realized that they had no idea what it even meant for anything to be a wakalix - that their scaffolding wasn't reaching out to any fact in reality that could make the sentences be true or false - that they'd just memorized what the teacher had said, and repeated it back, without it having meant anything."
"This being one of the ways that kids are taught to notice explicitly and speak up when they haven't understood what the ass somebody was talking about, instead of trying to memorize the sentence and repeat it back. And then for the rest of your learning, you're going to be up against teachers who try to throw subtler and subtler meaningless or underspecified statements into your education to see if anyone calls them out on it."
"Actually, now that I think about it, I should maybe have delayed that lesson until after everyone has been tapped with Owl's Wisdom, in case it's the sort of thing where Owl's Wisdom lets you notice a bunch of stuff you thought you believed that was actually meaningless, and we want less cumulative personality impact from all the things like that which are allowed to build up between Wisdom boosts?"
"Though I wouldn't actually expect much impact from that, I mean, if it's meaningless, it's probably not built into the core of your personality or important to your motivations or anything."
Why is she terrified. "I dunno, there are people who build their entire personality around....avenging the death of their wife at the hands of goblins, or something, and I could imagine tapping them with an Owl's being pretty soul-shocking? Because of realizing it's meaningless? But mostly that kind of thing happens in lawless places."
"I don't see why it'd be meaningless? I mean, it might be not the wisest thing to do given costs and benefits, but it's not meaningless. You can look at the world and see whether or not it's true that somebody's wife actually got killed by goblins. You can look at the world and see whether those goblins are dead yet."
"If you're driven to make the goblins be dead because they killed your wife, then the content, the meaning, of that drive inside you, either isn't true or false in the first place, or we have to build a complicated scaffolding about it to see how it's true or false in a complicated way."
Ione is worried if she's maybe the only person in this classroom who can think about this clearly enough to do something before all the Asmodeans have their minds explode, and the problem is, she can't actually figure out what she's supposed to do about it.
Though maybe as one of Lord Nethys's own, it's heresy for her to prevent things from exploding? But is this a kind of explosion that Lord Nethys finds pleasing to Him?
"I mean, you're not six years old, I'd expect you to at least notice the wakalixes thing if somebody ran that on you. Even without knowing the Law-fragment of meaning-scaffolds explicitly to yourself, I think you'd notice if you were in a classroom and the teachers were getting you to repeat back things where you just had no idea what they even meant."
"Uh, if this is a kind of thing where it maybe possibly makes people's minds explode harder if they go too long between Owl's Wisdoms, we should maybe go back to the probability stuff, and wait until everybody's had an Owl's Wisdom once before picking this up again?" says Ione.
It had better not also be her job to figure out what Asmodeus's priests need to tell everybody or do to them, in the window before this lesson resumes, so that they don't explode too hard later. Ione could already be treading perilously close to Nethysian heresy, for all she actually knows about Lord Nethys's laws, in trying to make something explode later or giving somebody else a chance to partially soften it.
She's going to need to - what is she even going to need to do - she's going to need to have the lesson in advance preemptively, that's what to do. Have a big heresy session where everyone says heretical things. Should be fun.
Before she does that she's going to need to try an Owl's Wisdom herself and get to the question of why she's so scared. ...maybe under supervision.
Message to Ione: Acknowledged.
"Anyways, the Law-fragment you learned yesterday is about building a scaffold between probabilities and the thing that determines how right you were. If I say I put 1/2 probability on my hand holding silver, to determine whether I'm being honest, Nethys just has to examine my brain and see if I'm honestly saying what I think the chance is, or if I'd bet 50/100 under a Lawful scoring rule, and not look at my hand at all."
"To determine the equivalent of whether I'm right - to say how right I am - you have to build a scaffold in your mind, from my saying 1/2, to my hand, and then you don't say 'true' or 'false', 'right' or 'wrong'; if I actually am holding silver, you say that my loss was one factor of 2, or one 'bit' to use the Baseline term. And this does involve concepts that people aren't just born with, which is why you want to understand the scaffold consciously and explicitly, rather than taking it for granted as something you'll do instinctively correctly."
"If instead we were just using scales from 1 to 12, with no common reference points, to understand what somebody else meant by their rating - well, it would still seem pretty plausible that strictly more complex events should not be rated as more likely. But there'd be no obvious way to take the scaffold from the probability assignment to my hand, and say how right I'd been exactly. That's one way of seeing why somebody sending out merchant ships might have trouble figuring out what to do with the claim, if you said the chance of a ship making it back was 9 on a scale from 1 to 12."
"And now that probabilities actually mean something to us, and aren't just wakalixes unto us - now that such thought is bound to reality in the explicit sight of meta-thought - we can consider more Law-fragments about what to do with probabilities once we have them."
...how does he actually bootstrap to the Inverse Probability Theorem? He learned that way too long ago for him to remember what he got taught before what else. It's kind of hard for him to remember what it's like to not know it.
Well, they're not getting any more enlightened by him not saying anything, so, he should just start saying things. Maybe start with the informal and state an informal Law-fragment before trying to formalize it; that's usually the order in which things are taught.
Keltham Prestidigitates the wall clear. He then starts to sketch a dath ilani murder mystery game, aimed at sufficiently young children that going through the motions of guessing the key statistics and multiplying odds won't just seem trivial and boring to them.
The owner of a house far away from any other houses, a man named Bahdhi, has been discovered dead, the discoloration of his body suggesting poisoning. His head is missing, so this isn't a truly awful crime - the Surreptitious Head Removers were evidently notified duly in advance, and properly called in by the murderer - and in real life you're obviously supposed to ignore any information you get as a result about this crime having been premeditated, or the poisoning not just being accidental, but it's said for the sake of the game to obviously be a murder even before taking into account the missing head -
Well, if you commit a murder, not that you're supposed to, but if you do decide to defect from Civilization to that extent, you would obviously still want your murder victim to go into the deep cold so they don't get deprived of their Future. Most people, when they commit murder, want somebody out of the way for now, they don't want to destroy the person's soul.
So there's a Government service that murderers can call in to get the heads of their victims properly taken away for suspension, immediately after the victim dies. And since Civilization absolutely does not want to disincentivize murderers from calling in this service, they're trained to come in without leaving any clues for the police that might make life harder on the murderer; and if they accidentally leave a clue anyways, the police would obviously ignore it. These are the Surreptitious Head Removers, drawn from Civilization's reserve of law-abiding psychopaths* to be people who are emotionally well-suited to come in, possibly watch an innocent person die without helping them, immediately after remove their head in a way that doesn't create any additional mess for the murderer to clean up, not get drawn into any conversations with the murderer, and get out without anybody noticing them.
This does mean that Civilization's rare murder cases will often involve a fairly lengthy court case to prove that somebody found with their head missing was in fact murdered, but this is the price of otherwise optimal policy.
(*) Taldane of course does not have a precise term corresponding to Baseline's 'law-abiding psychopath', which is distinct by syllables from Baseline 'criminal psychopath' to emphasize how much these are importantly different kinds of people. Keltham says 'Lawful not-emotionally-caring people'.
The thing that immediately comes to mind is that Civilization is obviously lying and obviously if you call in the Surreptitious Head Removers they arrest you.
Five days ago she would've been sure of it. Now - she's not sure. Maybe in dath ilan - maybe people really do have that much of the Law in them -
Carissa feels like she's supposed to be confused but isn't. "They train everyone to overthrow the government if it ever does anything less than perfectly Lawful. And normally that would result in a population that rebels constantly and ends up like Galt but - but that's because Golarion can't make governments lawful like that, and dath ilan can, and their government knows those are the rules so they're always Lawful. Right?"
"They're obviously not perfectly Lawful but people with the power to plausibly successfully remove Governance will hold Governance to some standard they think is reasonable. In dath ilan, everyone over thirteen or who passes a test earlier shares that power while the meta-level structure holds; and Governance being able to run a service like the Surreptitious Head Removers, which protects people from the equivalent of Abaddon, in an approximately Lawful fashion without gross violations endangering the dead of being lost, is one standard to which we hold them. You, I assume, as wizards with some combat potential, would at some point start to try to hold your Governance to account, say if they developed soul-destroying magical weapons and started permanently slaughtering everybody starting with Asmodeus's clerics, like if you thought they were doing badly even for Golarion."
" - yes, but describing under what conditions you'd overthrow the government makes cooperating to overthrow the government easier so it's - not illegal," because I say so right this minute, "but looked at like ...asking your friends under what conditions they'd agree to help you poison your wife and make it look like an accident? We have - a lot of overthrown governments - so peoples' expectations are different than they'd be somewhere where it's just a hypothetical. Also - it wouldn't be not-allowed, by Golarion rules, for someone to note down who said "yeah absolutely I'd overthrow the government if I thought they were any worse than I think they are now" and not put them in charge of any amassing an independent power base."
"I don't think you actually realize how bad it can get when governments are overthrown not by carefully executed pacts planned with the Church of Asmodeus," Ione says, because it's going to look weird if just Sevar is holding up this whole conversation and the Asmodeans are all too terrified to think through what they'd be saying in alter-Cheliax. "People are careful talking about it the same way you maybe wouldn't want to go around suggesting that Surreptitious Head Removers arrest people who call them."
"And I think we were also supposed to learn something about probability at some point."
"I have additional questions myself about what kind of Horrible Golarion Equilibrium is causing people to, I'm guessing, systematically vastly overestimate how much of a better outcome they can get by overthrowing their current governments, and how the solution to this is, apparently, nobody ever talking about those hypotheticals. But, yes, we were supposed to do probability."
"I'm actually kind of flailing here in the back of my mind, because I'm realizing that when dath ilani kids play the murder mystery game, there's known objective numbers for things like how many professional chemists versus non-chemists have particular poison ingredients in their possession, so when the kids guess that, you can tell them afterwards how well they objectively did at estimating statistics like that. And you can't possibly guess those statistics for dath ilan, and I won't know the correct answers relative to any statistics you guess about Golarion..."
"Okay, you know, simpler Golarion murder mystery. You'll just make up the key numbers, and we won't have any idea afterwards who was right. If two of you disagree, oh well."
"Meritxell is found dead in her bedroom tomorrow. And for some reason, Governance wants to know who did it immediately, instead of waiting to raise her. Also she didn't make afterlife arrangements so they can't just call her in Hell immediately. Wow murder mysteries around here must be a lot less interesting a lot of the time."
"Anyways, the two suspects are Keltham and Carissa, the only two people who had Security clearances that could have enabled them to access Meritxell's bedroom during the time in question."
"Meritxell, obviously, was murdered by a lantern archon. Keltham is known to have Summon Monster III among his accessible cleric spells; when it comes to Carissa, we'd have to ask how likely a recently-fourth-circle wizard was to have that exact spell in her spellbook... uh, unless there's obvious other ways to cast it, like, from a scroll, but this was obviously a spellbook lantern archon rather than a scroll lantern archon and also nobody's allowed to just look in her spellbook. Bear with me here, I haven't constructed Golarion murder mysteries before."
"Neither Keltham nor Carissa have any known motive to slay Meritxell. However, Carissa was observed by Ione, assumed honest for these purposes, to have gotten into some sort of angry-looking argument with Meritxell the previous day, though Ione wasn't able to overhear the details."
"What can we say about who likely did it, and how would we say that?"
"I think it's Keltham because having a summoned outsider kill someone is the kind of thing you do if you have an instinctive aversion to killing them face to face yourself. which Keltham probably does because he's from dath ilan and which I don't because demons can wear human faces if they care to."
(Keltham doesn't particularly notice that it's Carissa, the other suspect, arguing that Keltham did it; this is obviously meta-Carissa not suspect-Carissa talking.)
"Everyone's normal from their own perspective, and in Civilization, I do rather get the impression, killing people is considered much less normal than it is in Golarion."
"On the other hand, yes, my thought processes are relatively alien to you, so if a weird thing happens, you might assume I was the one more likely to do it."
"And when it comes to murders, if you can avoid killing somebody face-to-face who, you know, is getting resurrected a day later, you'd probably do it that way whether you were Keltham or Carissa, so you're less likely to get caught."
"Let's say for purposes of thought experiment that all those considerations exactly cancel out. In fact, if we didn't know anything about the argument Ione saw, or know that the murderer could summon a lantern archon, and we just knew that Meritxell was killed by somebody not face-to-face, we would've thought that Keltham and Carissa were exactly equally likely to be the murderer."
"Where do we go from there?"
"I'm not trained in interrogations but at least in the popular understanding, you tie them to a chair and shake them around a little and tell them you've already got it figured out but it'll go easier for them if they admit it than if they keep denying it, and ask them questions from slightly different angles, and point out contradictions in what they said, and maybe hit them, and they have a hard time thinking about their long term self-interest."
"I suspect this is in fact a different experience at 18 Intelligence and whatever I turn out to have in the way of Wisdom and other stuff your system can't measure at all."
"If you already had it figured out, you wouldn't need to tie me to a chair. The claim is completely implausible."
"Asking me questions from slightly different angles can be done without tying me to a chair. Pointing out contradictions in what I said is stupid, you should let me keep talking without telling me how I'm giving myself away, the same way I didn't speak up immediately when I realized the people around me had suddenly acquired Arcane Sight, just in case that was being hidden for some actually interesting reason."
"Hitting me does not seem particularly likely to shift how much I consider my long-term interest, except insofar as I decide that I clearly have a very strong long-term interest in certain parts of Governance ceasing to exist."
"I hope I don't need to point out that if we're considering applying enough pain, matched to a light enough penalty for the actual crime, that somebody who yields to threats, thinks it's in their direct interest to confess, this is exactly as likely to work on innocent people as guilty people? Unless the true murderer is known in advance to have information they can give up, such that the police can verify with near-certainty that the confession was true? Otherwise it's isomorphic to offering somebody a thousand gold pieces to confess to a crime whose penalty is a hundred gold-piece fine. Sure, the guilty party will confess, and so will any innocent ones. You're putting them in a situation which isn't a Lawful scoring rule, you're not offering maximum reward for true confessions distinct from false confessions and you shouldn't expect the words people say to communicate anything."
"Unless you think you're supposed to tell the truth even when somebody has tied you to a chair and is hitting you? In Civilization it would just be considered obvious that this is not a cooperative setup where you have an interest in your words being heard as meaning things, you mostly want for the situation you're in to not exist in the first place, so everyone will just try to trash the setup as hard as possible."
"- again, not trained in interrogations, but I think people do lie, but the lies you tell if you're innocent and the lies you tell if you're guilty are not the same. The details you make up, stuff like that." Carissa doesn't know, maybe interrogation in Taldor is in fact totally ineffective, it wouldn't be very surprising.
"Yes! It's the same way in Civilization! Innocent people don't always talk exactly the same way as guilty ones! That is in fact why police in Civilization talk to suspects in crimes even if people won't just politely tell you they did it! Except that in Civilization the police don't hit all suspects including the innocent ones, thereby maintaining a cooperative stance with the innocent parties but not the guilty one, which incentivizes everyone except the actual guilty party to give the police as much actually-true information as possible and forms a further factor distinguishing the guilty party's behavior which helps the police distinguish them."
"Okay, you know what, I'm going to say this even knowing exactly how much I'm tempting the 'tropes': If there is an actual criminal mystery around here, I am going to take charge of the investigation, and nobody is to do any hitting of anybody while we try it the dath ilani way first."
"Right, so, the general direction I was aiming for, here, was people starting to talk about how likely it would be that Carissa versus Keltham would be able to summon a lantern archon, or how much more likely Carissa is to get into an argument with Meritxell in worlds where Carissa committed the murder versus worlds where Carissa was innocent."
"It's possible, I am realizing, that this is less of an obvious next question if you haven't grown up hearing adults talking that way all the time."
"Do my eyes deceive me? Are the people who are actually confused, looking visibly confused enough that I, their teacher, have any idea of what's going on inside their minds? Thank you. It significantly helps and I appreciate it. Now, those of you not looking confused, is that because you totally understood where I was going there, or because you forgot to violate your usual habits and look confused on purpose?"
Gregoria is looking confused on purpose. It is kind of terrifying but that's life on Project Lawful for you. "I don't - see how Carissa and Meritxell having an argument is relevant to the probabilities at all. And I don't see how you could possibly get sure enough for it to make sense to do anything other than, uh, expensive fancy Truth Spells or whatever the Crown keeps in store."
"The problem I'm having with thinking up simpler and more realistic examples is that I haven't been in Golarion long enough to learn a lot of probabilities and use them myself on problems with this structure. The cases where I've resorted to explicit reasoning of this form, have been about weird exotic things I couldn't figure out by simpler methods, like the timing of the Zon-Kuthon attack relative to when I went outside the Forbiddance, or the implications if Carissa mysteriously failed to make her afterlife arrangements."
"Okay, uh, hopefully much simpler example. Around what fraction of wizard students in your academy had Intelligence 16, 17, 18?"
"Numbers, Meritxell. I'm not asking you to be perfectly right, I'm asking you to guess, based on what you've seen in your wizard academy that I haven't."
(Keltham has already estimated the ratios between +2.5sd, +3.0sd, and +3.5sd in terms of their improbability, and the ratio should be something like 15:5:1.)
"And the population ratios should be - I've been unwisely trying to work this out inside my head, because it's more impressive that way, even if I have a higher chance of screwing up instead* - one INT 18 to six or seven INT 17s to forty INT 16s to two hundred INT 15s to six hundred fifty INT 14s. So if you've got equal INT 14 and INT 15 representation, then any individual INT 15 is about three times as likely to get admitted to Ostenso wizard academy than an INT 14. Does all that sound right?"
He'll write it down on the whitewall in case that helps:
INT 18: 1
INT 17: 6-7
INT 16: 40
INT 15: 200
INT 14: 650
(*) In particular, Keltham is unthinkingly treating their Intelligence detector's integer output as a perfect floor() function instead of a noisy round() function, though it's not like he'd know that was wrong, and it gets him pretty close.
"Heh. I suppose that's actually a simpler answer than the one I had in mind. Why would those ratios be the same between dath ilan and Golarion, though? What with us having a whole heritage-optimization program, and subsidies for kids expected to produce Civilization-approved positive externalities, and nutrition that doesn't vary much between kids."
"What math did you do? Or if you don't want to just tell me - can you show me what the calculations were, and then I can see if I can figure out from those what they mean?"
Asmodia could, without benefit of any Detect Thoughts, hear Meritxell thinking earlier about how she was top of the class in Ostenso, and Meritxell needs to be put back in her place.
"Actually, I did have some key results memorized, even though they were math results and not about the ratios in dath ilan per se. If I had done calculations, they might have looked like - I didn't use this calculation exactly, but it's simpler and probably gives about the same answer -"
Definition of ^:
2^2 = 4
2^3 = 8
4^2.5 = 32
Definition of sqrt:
sqrt(9) = 3
sqrt(16) = 4
sqrt(x*x) = x
sqrt(2) = 1.41421
pi = 3.14159
e = 2.71828
let normal(x) = 1 / sqrt(2*pi) * e^( (-1/2) * (x^2) ) in
INT 18 ~ normal(4)
INT 17 ~ normal(3.5)
INT 16 ~ normal(3)
INT 15 ~ normal(2.5)
INT 14 ~ normal(2)
"I am not actually expecting you to figure this one out, Asmodia, it's several layers further into Probability and it would take multiple other concepts to understand what those numbers had to do with Intelligence in Golarion. I'm only even writing it down on the white-wall because, I mean, when you asked me that way, I couldn't have lived with myself if I hadn't shown you the calculations."
"What's actually in there is something like - a fragment of Law that tells you a thing that is very likely true given only very few premises. I could have used it to look at a room full of randomly selected people in Cheliax, none of whom were unusually tall, and then estimated from that how many very tall people of a given height there'd be in Cheliax."
This Carissa has actually encountered before, not in the standard curriculum for young wizards which doesn't much digress into things they don't absolutely need to know, but at the Worldwound, where wizards have a lot of long boring weeks between raids to discuss other things. It's part of how Intelligence is defined.
The girls who haven't encountered it look very impressed, though.
Note to self: talk to some mathematicians and see if other Keltham things are actually things Golarion - just not this specific group of students - is already familiar with.
"Actually, now that I think about it, the reason I know a key constant here is that the wizard who teleported me to Cheliax from the Worldwound seemed to know it? In particular, he knew what I was talking about when I asked about the square root of the average squared difference from the average over Intelligence. There's no reason he'd have known that for Intelligence unless this particular concept was already known in Golarion. Which means that, in fact, somebody somewhere in Cheliax knows substantially more math about Probability than this class has ever heard of existing."
"I shall endeavor not to be distracted by trying to figure out how what why huh, and try to teach the basic layers of Probability from a dath ilani perspective instead. But, somebody should actually let me know if I'm improvising something more poorly than existing teaching methods teach it. You in particular, Isidre, I know you're reading the transcript on this."
"Not once the native 19 got a +2 headband, maybe. Also remind me at some point to explain my theory that Intelligence is only one piece of what makes a really smart person and native 19s probably have more of the other pieces than a 15 with a +4 headband."
"If you can give me any random numerical facts you know that seem like they might possibly be related to how Intelligence affects wizard career attainment, I can see whether those random facts pin down the probable truth about the thing I want to know, given my background knowledge about how things likely fit together?"
"People say that Nefreti Clepati is a native 21, but they might be making that up."
"People say that Aroden was at 35 before he ascended, having invented a dozen new kinds of enhancement more complicated than the existing ones to go past what was even understood to be possible."
"The first student in our year to make second circle was Aspex Leron, and he's an 18."
"You meet more native 16s at the Worldwound than native 15s or native 17s, and that's typically fifth circle casters or higher. The average age to third circle is ten years, and it's known to be faster, but not lots faster - maybe six or eight years - if you're smarter, though also very smart people sometimes get stuck and obviously this is conditional on you being at the Worldwound and using magic where it matters.
The youngest fourth-circle wizard in Cheliax is a native 18."
"They're plausibly not making it up about Nefreti, there should be approximately one native INT 21 in all of Golarion."
"I'm getting the impression Aroden was kind of a cool guy. Just to check, was he by any chance hinted to be from some mysterious other world? Because a lot of things I'm hearing about him sound like things a dath ilani would try."
Keltham is writing something on the white-wall while he asks this.
Is one allowed to say nice things about Aroden. Who even knows anymore.
"I've never heard that but he was mortal eight thousand years ago, there's a lot that isn't remembered."
"The ancient Azlanti might've been partway to Civilization when they were destroyed. They're said to have invented a lot that isn't remembered."
"Probably not one of my fellow flying-machine passengers then. That sounds more like how long you'd take if you weren't starting with Civilization's knowledge and had to work out everything yourself the hard way, which, to be clear, is overwhelmingly more respectable than any career path I'd ever even consider."
"Carissa, more INT 15s or INT 17s among 5th-circles at the Worldwound?"
Keltham finishes writing:
INT 15s: INT 16s: INT 17s:
150 50 10
5th◁15 5th◁16 5th◁17
2/100 10/100 40/100
"Suppose that among those who train to be wizards at all, there's a hundred-fifty INT 15s for every fifty INT 16s and every ten INT 17s."
"Suppose that 2% of the INT 15s, 10% of the INT 16s, and 40% of the INT 17s, become fifth-circle wizards, and that all kinds of fifth-circle wizard are equally represented at the Worldwound."
"What's the relative chance that a fifth-circle you meet at the Worldwound has native INT 15 versus native INT 17, if you know it's one of the two? Raise an open hand if you think you've got it, closed hand if you think you're not going to get it."
Paying attention to the exact question has sometimes been known to count for something in more complicated problems like these, just saying.
Suppose you didn't know that somebody from your class was going to make fifth-circle wizard, if they were just a random person from your class, what would be the chance they were an INT 15 vs. INT 17?
"Well, suppose we were trying to solve an old murder mystery, Death At Ostenso Academy, which happened forty years back. We've got a piece of evidence that their INT was between 15 and 17. Another piece of evidence rules out all the INT 16s because they were all taking a specialized class at the time. Going on 'priors', I think maybe priors would be the best Taldane translation, we'd say there was only a 6% chance of the murderer being an INT 17, because most students at Ostenso Academy aren't INT 17s."
"However, now suppose we get a new piece of evidence about a later murder, clearly connected to the old one, which appears to have been committed by a fifth-circle wizard who served at the Worldwound. Suppose, somebody says, that both murders were committed by the same person. In that case, we now think that the previous murder was likely committed by an INT 17 student, with probability of 57% for that and 43% for INT 15."
"It's been - difficult for me to present this properly, I think, because I'm new to Golarion and don't know what problems would make a good point of it - but there's a way of thinking that sees everything in probabilities that shift as you learn new things, because of how facts are entangled with other facts. Knowing that somebody made fifth-circle doesn't tell us their Intelligence for certain, but at INT 17 it's four times as likely than at INT 16 and twenty times as likely than INT 15, at least based on these numbers I made up - though not ungroundedly so, since even these made-up numbers were constrained by math I knew for the probable shape of the general population curves for how many INT 17s vs INT 15s, combined with Carissa's observation that there's more INT 16s than 15s or 17s among Worldwound 5th-circles, and slightly more 17s than 15s."
"If you only take into account the facts that overwhelmingly determine an answer, you'll miss an awful lot of facts and observations that shift probabilities a noticeable amount even if they don't shift them to ninety-nine hundredths."
"If you consider the original murder mystery I tried to offer you, what a dath ilani kid would've known to do - based on the way their parents talk, or some implicit aspect of previous training that I'm too young to remember and see the implications of - would be to ask about the probability that Carissa could've summoned a lantern archon, compared to Keltham being known to be able to do so. Or how likely it is that, if you imagine the world where Carissa is the murderer, that she got into a heated argument with Meritxell about something the previous day, compared to the world where there was nothing to murder Meritxell about."
"We might say that the priors make Keltham and Carissa equally likely so far as we know, we guess that Carissa is half as likely to have Summon Monster III in her spellbook compared to Keltham's certainty of being able to pray for it, and that Carissa is four times as likely to have something to argue about with Meritxell if we imagine ourselves in the world where she had some reason to kill Meritxell compared to the world where Keltham had some reason to kill Meritxell. Then what's the chance that Carissa, versus Keltham, killed Meritxell? So far as we know."
Not bad, though he should've remembered to ask for raised hands instead of just the answer.
"Yup. Though it's important to remember that, in that case, the numbers really are ones I just made up. Contrast to the way where I had a prior guess about the shape of the Intelligence distribution in the population from 14s to 18s, which matched up neatly with what Meritxell said about 15s vs 16s in the wizard academy, and then I asked for any relevant facts and Carissa had some notion of who you run into at the Worldwound. My numbers were all compatible with those facts, which, if this were an actual mystery, might make them more able to support the weight of reasoning with them."
"Now a warning: Until you've honed your ability to make up numbers and have them be constrained by other facts you know, you might be better off with your brain just feeling intuitively that some things make Carissa more or less likely to be the murderer, and not trying to know legibly to yourself what your brain is thinking. If you make up a number like, Carissa is fifty percent likely to be able to cast Summon Monster III, and that number wasn't visibly constrained by any other facts you know, it's possible you might be better off by... rating it on a scale from 1-12 that you know doesn't actually mean anything, say, and letting your brain's intuitions take care of the rest."
"But this entire realm of thought is the realm that generalizes the notion of Validity that I told you about before - it's the realm of what is valid to say about uncertainty and things that might happen, which is most of what we ever want to think about. The Law of that realm is the mathematics of probability."
"So to navigate an uncertain world Lawfully, for whatever the Law is worth to mortals there, you learn to cast Detect Probability and then Greater Make Up Probability and eventually end up with permanent Probability Sight."
"Right isn't how the scaffold from reality to probabilistic belief works, remember. We lose fewer 2s. We don't bother putting probabilities on things almost certain to happen or not happen, like a mountain being in the same place as yesterday. If it's not important enough to spend a lot of time thinking about it and making up numbers, we don't spend the time to think about it. We use the more complicated disciplines where some point matters a lot and it's uncertain."
"To give a recent example, I've been trying to work out whether, or to what degree, the forces that landed me here chose a universe where I'd end up in a particular kind of weird situation; and I guessed that Chelish Governance was something like 3 times more likely to just immediately inform me that Pilar had gone to Elysium, instead of making me figure that out for myself, if they weren't being messed with by forces like that. It's a terrible example for lessons purposes, because it's weird and complicated, but it being weird and complicated is exactly why I started deploying explicit numbers instead of just relying on my wordless intuition to do the mostly right thing."
"I don't want to overstate how important this kind of reasoning is to, say, figuring out metallurgy, because when you're working metals, you mainly want to find tricks that work all the time rather than 30% of the time. You don't actually want to be sticking around in the realm of non-extreme probabilities. But if you're trying two different smelting processes with inconsistent outputs, this is the branch of reasoning you'd use to figure out how many tests you needed to run to be pretty sure of your conclusion, and neither jump to a conclusion too early, nor run a lot of tests you didn't need."
"Oh, and, there's also a class of incredibly huge blatant mistakes that are a lot easier to spot once you have any Law of Probability, like the ways you can get mortals to violate, uh, 'there's duck for lunch because Keltham asked for it' being less probable than 'there's duck for lunch'. There's more stuff like that."
"But all of those uses are secondary to the idea that these are universal Laws governing uncertainty, whether or not you're thinking about them explicitly and using them explicitly, whether or not your implicit reasoning is operating correctly. It's not like you can lose fewer 2s by just thinking in a sort of wordless way about whether your merchant ships are likely to come back. You still have to send those ships out or not, based on the factors you knew about, and the Law goes on governing the correct relations between factors regardless of whether you have any inkling of what those are."
"The saying in dath ilan is that, even if you don't know the equations of gravity in exquisitely rigorous detail, if you step off a cliff, you'll fall. You don't need to know the Law of the material world for it to go on governing rocks, trees, yourself. The Law of Probability is core to how all thought works; you don't need to think about thought for that Law to go on governing how well or poorly your thoughts match up to reality."
"You're not exempted from the Law of Probability by guessing in a way that doesn't mention probabilities to yourself. If it feels to you that it's more likely for a rival merchant ship to bring in a cargo of shoes from Absalom than for a rival ship to bring in a cargo of shoes, your mind is still doing a broken thing in light of the Law, whether you're thinking about the Law or not, whether you're making up numbers or not."
"Or for things like looking at my pocketwatch and inferring what time it is, the probabilities may be so close to certain, that they are not worth thinking about as probabilities; but it is still not a necessary truth that my pocketwatch tells the correct time, it is not certain across every imaginable world. If I reason from what my pocketwatch says, I am in principle operating in the realm of things that happen to be true in my universe, not things that are always true everywhere. That is the realm of Probability, and my thoughts are then thoughts that work or fail in light of the Law of Probability."
For gods, is it all - explicit? The question as phrased doesn't make any sense, actually -
- humans are mostly running a process they don't understand. Blindly doing things without any kind of explanation of why the thing they're doing is even an approximation of the truth they're seeking. Gods obviously wouldn't do that. The process by which they make inferences would be observable to them; they would be able to see why it works. If humans only a little smarter and less broken than Golarion humans can describe it, then gods can see it clearly. ....probably. Actually she's not sure that holds in general. But it feels true in the specific case: to be a god is to be made of math a little more, to have less of a gulf between the unconscious processes you must use to reason and the true processes you know would work.
(This is false, actually; the gulf is far, far wider. Gods are nearly always too fragmented to apply even a tiny fraction of their full intelligence to any particular problem they are confronted with; they run entirely off of heuristics necessarily much dumber than they are, and reflexes they only occasionally have the luxury of bringing their full mind to bear on tweaking and reshaping.)
(The greater Iomedae may possibly, at some point, notice that the Cayden Cailean that She was talking to earlier sounded larger than the fragment of Iomedae talking to Him; but this is not something that fragment will notice on its own, or by exchanging updates with fragments of similar size. While running reflex thought, it's hard to notice the nonreflex thoughts of others, except as weird unexpected responses that weren't the ones you were hoping for and are instead from some wider space outside the argument space you tried to map out in advance. You have to become larger and thoughtful yourself, to notice that those unexpected responses to you were unexpectedly thoughtful ones.)
"I feel like I've done noticeably worse on this lecture than some others; hopefully that reflects my having so little sense of which examples to use for Golarion, and not that my performance is going to continue degrading further as I try to talk about anything more complicated."
"Maybe next time I'll start with abstract mathematical properties and then try to derive real-world lessons from those, rather than the other way around, to see if that works any better for us. It did seem worth trying to do it the way I learned it, first. But, I mean, on the other hand, you are not actually seven-year-olds and that may importantly expand the option space if something isn't working."
It's at this point, having reached an obvious breakpoint in his lecture, that Keltham checks his pocketwatch and realizes he's been talking way too long, relative to other processes such as, for example, lunch.
"For the future record," Keltham says, "you're allowed to tell me if I'm running this late over lunch. Let's all suddenly frantically run there at a sedate walking pace and hope there's any food left."
Message to Sevar: Ione here. On future occasions, I want more backup when I'm trying to have Keltham not collapse everyone's minds. I can be the one who dares to interrupt him, it's my library after all, but I don't think it's a good look when everybody except me is sitting frozen in terror of heresy. Do you have a convenient excuse for us to have a private lunch about something? Also, seems possibly good if Pilar is there too.
"Prestidigitation works fine on books, Ione. ....was that less true when the herald of Nethys Takaral was alive. Maybe it was. Anyway, my room is fine."
Off they head.
She closes the door behind her and has her Unseen Servant bop around failing to bump into any invisible people, just because it's what a fourth-circle wizard would do. "Ione requested we meet," she says for Pilar's benefit, and looks at Ione expectantly.
"Repeating for Pilar's benefit: I managed to keep Keltham from immediately exploding all the minds of all the Asmodeans in class, today, but I don't think it's a good look when everybody else is frozen up in fear of heresy. I can be the one who interrupts Keltham since it's my library, but the others need to stop going quiet or he's going to notice. Sevar talks because she's confident she has the authority to decide to do that. I'm thinking maybe Pilar can be confident enough to speak up too."
"Is there a plan for not having everybody's minds collapse? I also asked Pilar along because she's the third person in class who isn't going to have her mind explode if Keltham rips apart everything designed to make Asmodeans not realize how much they don't want to go to Hell."
"Thank you for that very constructive frame for the discussion, Ione." 'thank you' is only used sarcastically, in Cheliax. "I don't think the core problem is that people don't want to go to Hell. Maillol is a fifth circle cleric of Asmodeus and he said he's not looking forward to it; therefore, it's fine for people to not look forward to it, though I think when they actually get good at reasoning they will look forward to it because they'll want to get even better. But mileage might vary. There is a very real possibility that nine out of ten people exposed to dath ilanism just become very miserable about going to Hell and can't get over it, and it'd be worth it even with attrition rates that high, but - but I don't expect that? I expect that whatever arguments Contessa Lrilatha believes are true and we just have to get people through the rough patch where they don't know those yet and do know enough to think themselves in a million dangerous directions."
"Works on you. Works on Pilar. I find myself not even slightly tempted to ask Lord Nethys to take back His grip on my soul so that I can go to Hell and be improved through horrible pain that causes me to not even remember my human name when they're done, instead of sitting in an enormous library relearning magic takaral. Besides you two, I doubt anybody else in class except maybe Meritxell is somebody who would actually want that."
"Essentially all of the Asmodeanism that I was ever taught is, in fact, a tissue of things that are obvious lies or bad reasoning or downright meaningless as soon as you're allowed to think about them. Keltham didn't get far into forcing everyone to think about it, because I shut him down, which I could do because I'm not going to Hell and don't have to believe in any of that anymore, meaning I already watched it all collapse inside me and I could see the direction Keltham was pushing people. So it didn't explode today, but Keltham's not going to just not teach that stuff without a reason, and even given a reason, I bet dath ilanism doesn't actually work without it."
"The entire project that I have been set is coming up with a dath ilanism that actually works and is true, which is compatible with the fact that all of us will go to Hell and that it is written into the contract of Creation that eventually everyone will go to Hell. dath ilanism is a set of tools, and it ought to be possible to use them whatever world you find yourself in, and we find ourselves in a world where we belong to Asmodeus, and reasoning doesn't stop working when that's true. It'd be an enormous weakness in Law, if you couldn't use it if you were going to go to Hell."
She can feel herself not fully using her brain to have this argument, though.
"Anyway, we have some latitude for - like, if we end up concluding that Hell needs improvement - well, it's an imperfect expression of Our Lord's will, and He wants this project so he wants the kinds of souls this project outputs and if necessary we'll figure out how to ensure they are adequately accommodated in Hell."
"If that's the vision you expect to convince my classmates - and let's be clear, I find myself not even slightly tempted to turn my back on Lord Nethys for it - then you'd better start thinking of how to inspire everyone with it before Keltham explodes their minds."
"My sense is that Lord Nethys looks favorably on this project with Asmodeus, but I am not certain of His plans. If at some point it looks like failure is inevitable I will begin considering the prospect that Nethys means me to stay with Keltham after this blows up. I'll continue to try to shut down Keltham when I think he's about to explode people, unless countermanded by you. But not if it gets to the point where I think I'm making myself look bad to him and hindering a plan by Lord Nethys to have me accompany Keltham elsewhere."
"What happened in class today was Lord Nethys pulling your asses out of the lava. If I hadn't been there, or Nethys hadn't oracled me, everybody in there would have sat in place frozen in shock at the heresy and too worried about appearances to Keltham to say anything, while Keltham kept talking, until somebody broke and had to be Dominated. I can't fix this, I can only slow it down and give you time."
"I've said my piece, and if you'd nothing more of me, I can go. I can copy Invisibility off a Security."
She's gone, quietly impressed that Sevar manages to take criticism that well.
Is she nervous? Only slightly. Knowing that Nethys can still see the future leads her to have a lot of faith in His plans. At worst, this all explodes, the Asmodeans kill her or her library curse kills her, and then Nefreti Clepati brings her back and sends her over to wherever Keltham went.
"I obviously stand ready to torture or kill her if that'd be helpful."
Pilar says it more because she thinks she ought to, than because she means it. Something in Ione's words shook the same part of her that had the thought, in Elysium, about it being better if only people who wanted to go to Hell went to Hell.
"I wasn't - very good at arguing this, when I tried to argue it to the Elysians, and the Grand High Priestess told me afterwards that it was wrong for me to have tried, because they weren't persuadable - but I'll try again -"
"Because I can't exist without somebody above me who hurts me and tells me what to do and punishes me if I don't do it, and what they tell me doesn't have to be perfect but it has to mean something. I mean, not just anything, but - it's the Lawful part of Lawful Evil, what the punishments and the right behaviors are about. It can't be somebody Neutral Evil or Chaotic Evil who's just, using me as a slave on a farm, and not forcing me onto a right path. It can't be someone who hurts me because they think I enjoy it and they respect my personal individual desires, like Chaotic Good, that's meaningless, that's not - about the thing that Lord Asmodeus is about."
"I don't know how to say it. The Elysians kept arguing to me that Asmodeus didn't deserve my loyalty because He didn't care about me except as a useful thing, or at best a pretty thing to own, and, I mean, fine? It's just very obvious to me that there's no other god I've ever heard of besides Lord Asmodeus who matches the shape of my own soul. It's not an exchange, it's not a friendship, He's just the god of Pilars."
(though Pilar does sometimes wish that Asmodeus were a little different, in some ways, from exactly what He is)
"Well. - don't take this as an order right this second, but I want you to have ten kids, because it'd be very convenient if that were heritable. It doesn't seem - convinceable, unfortunately. Thank you, Pilar. You should go to the temple and take a punishment for listening to heresy." She's going to hope no one assigns her one, because -
- because the state of her soul is Hell's concern and the Church's is for the state of her project.
"I don't see how you can use probability to solve murders," Meritxell is saying to Keltham at lunch, "because you'd often end up really unsure and it'd be embarrassing to act while that unsure. Are people really all right with, 'we have decided there is a seventy percent chance this is the murderer, so we're going to execute him now and be done with it'?"
A watching Security continues to think that this is hilarious, and that Meritxell does not seem to have any understanding of how to proactively seduce a high-value target. Rather than, say, being the pretty girl at the top of her class, who just needs to repeatedly be nearby at a man until he naturally comes to desire her, and make the first move in the game she knows how to play.
"That's exactly what makes it important to have a legible legal procedure which says, we think this person has a ninety-two percent chance of being guilty, which is over the eighty-five percent threshold that all the cities use for non-souldeath murder. So he goes to the Last Resort, which is the place that has to accept you when nowhere else would accept you any more."
"What's the alternative? Pretend to be certain? Pretend that a court in Golarion that claims to be totally certain of its findings, won't actually be wrong at least one time in seven if not more? When your courts output probability judgments, you can check against the cases where the criminal files a confidential report with the Confidential Criminal Court Calibration Commission saying what actually happened, or the cases where decisive evidence turns up later. You can check if courts that say ninety-two percent are actually right ninety-two times out of a hundred. What do you do when a court just claims to be right? How could you tell how well they're doing?"
"Is it the fault of the number, seventy percent, that you're ending up unsure? If that's what the state of the evidence is, then, that's the state of the evidence, the problem isn't the number, it's that you couldn't find evidence good enough. Not reasoning in numbers isn't going to help you not be unsure."
"Yeah, I guess the charms of probability-theoretic reasoning in criminal justice might well be lost on you if you've got truthspells."
"Unless there's such a thing as people who can defeat truthspells not detectably, in which case nobody has any idea how to figure out what's true without truthspells, and they can go under the truthspell and say that the Chief Executive of Civilization ate their pet goldfish and get the Chief Executive fired. I mean, to be clear, I'm not saying that's what would happen here, I'm just saying, that's how it would go wrong in a dath ilani fantasy novel. Happy peaceful Civilization with universal absolute honesty based on truthspells, one person figures out how to defeat them, oops everybody except the protagonist has forgotten how to think on their own and detect lies."
- giggle. "I think as long as less than one in a hundred people can beat a Truth Spell then you get 99 percent, which seems like a more reasonable rate, but if anyone claims that something really improbable happened, you might still figure they found a way....
Are you allowed to kill the Chief Executive of Civilization in self-defense."
"We don't have truthspells so that would be an ass of a case to try to convince Civilization's courts of, I mean, our Chief Executive is selected by a process which makes it very unlikely that they'd ever try to murder anyone."
"But if we actually had perfectly reliable truthspells, then sure, obviously."
"If they're not perfectly reliable, then a one-in-a-hundred failure rate doesn't mean you get 99% good results. The 1% of people who can defeat truthspells become criminals and bring the whole system down. You're not dealing with crimes by random people, you're selectively more likely to run into crimes committed by people who know they can defeat truthspells. Are there people like that in Golarion?"
"Are there people who can defeat truthspells? Not that I know of but one doesn't imagine they'd advertise it. I'd be kind of surprised if Nefreti Clepati couldn't. Anyway powerful wizards mostly don't have to listen to courts anyway, places outside Cheliax, so I'm not sure they'd bother beating truth spells rather than saying 'yeah I murdered that person, what are you going to do about it'."
"Can we actually go back to the part about the Confidential Criminal Court Calibration Commission?" says Peranza, who's nearby listening in fascination. Nobody has actually briefed her that Meritxell is running seduction on Keltham and should maybe be left undisturbed. "Dath ilani criminals file secret reports of what they actually did?"
"They can and we give them some reason to. If your next question is how we know we can trust the criminals' confidential reports of what actually happened during the crime, the answer is that we don't trust them based on everybody being that Lawful, but sometimes later decisive evidence turns up. That gives us a picture of how often the criminals tell the truth in their confidential reports. I don't remember the exact figure, but it's high? Civilization is careful not to give the criminal any incentive to lie, and if decisive evidence turns up later, a reporting criminal gets paid, not as much as the crime will cost them, but some, and that's only if they told the truth."
"I hope I don't have to explain that the criminals trust Governance confidentiality because yes Governance actually is that Lawful, they have incentives to be."
"They keep it a secret. If they wouldn't, the confidential report wouldn't have been submitted, and we wouldn't actually be any better off."
"Releasing deadly plagues kinda is a thing you don't talk about in Civilization, in much the same way that Golarionites might not consider it a fun party conversation to discuss how you'd theoretically murder someone's spouse. It's not that dath ilani do that often, it's that the losses are so potentially huge if anyone does. I think the equivalent here would be a rule that Rovagug-release jokes are not funny."
Asmodia finishes her plate, puts it away, and approaches the possible protagonist of a frantically god-constructed romance novel.
"Keltham," says the love interest entirely uninterested in love, so far as she knows, "is this a good time for us to go off and have a private conversation about why you thought I'd have superpowers?"
(Also nobody has briefed Asmodia that Meritxell was running seduction on Keltham and should be left undisturbed.)
"Sorry, Meritxell," Keltham says, thereby acknowledging that he was talking to her in particular throughout lunch, which hopefully counts as any counterflirting at all (deniably). "Maybe later? Asmodia's question probably has any priority on it."
It's not like Meritxell isn't hot.
The fortress is not, by and large, as pretty as an archduke's villa. Not even close.
It does have the advantage that it's being explicitly renovated, on a somewhat larger Otolmens-funded budget than before. Parts have been hastily redesigned for something like the real uses to which this fortress will be put.
If you leave the library-adjacent dining area, and go up a narrow spiral of stairs, there's a hastily-constructed but already-slightly-pretty private dining area, with a lockable door and quieting spell, three comfortable chairs around a small decorative table, an enchanted window that looks out on the ocean but doesn't let out any light the other way, and a secret door that leads to a soundproofed cuddleroom.
It is the Keltham Seduction Room. Somebody literally put that name on the first edition of the fortress layout map that went up in Maillol's 'official' office, the one Keltham knows about, along with the secret cuddleroom explicitly marked, and the mistake was barely caught before Keltham got a look at this official map.
The girls had in fact not been explicitly authorized to know about this architectural feature, until approved for the use of some particular seduction operation. Unfortunately, the first person to spot the map error as such was Paxti. Now they all know, and furthermore, don't know this was supposed to be a secret.
It occurs to Asmodia that Keltham's first time seeing this room is probably wasted on the two of them, in particular. Oh well, not like she gives any shits. "I heard about it from Peranza, who, if I had to guess, heard about it from Paxti," Asmodia says. "I expect it's meant more for - you and Sevar, or you and whoever, but it seems like it'd also work for private conversations."
Modulo the obvious part with Security listening to the conversation, and to her thoughts, which cannot be read.
She's got to try to think fewer unreadable thoughts. Does she actually feel attracted to Keltham, in accordance with the 'tropes' Sevar was talking about for dath ilani romance novels? Not that Asmodia can tell, at all.
"Actually no, not at this point, it actually is a private conversation."
"When I came back from Hell, I was told there was a Crown order to determine if I had any superpowers. Later you asked me about that, I asked why people were asking me that, I realized I hadn't actually been briefed on the classification status of the Crown order and shouldn't have said that in public, queried that to Security, eventually got an answer, and now I've found that at least you're allowed to know the Crown order exists."
"Which would make sense if you started the whole thing. But anyways, I'm now allowed to talk about that with you. Or rather, I always was allowed to talk about it, but now I know that."
Oof. "I was checking a hypothesis about - how I got here, where I landed - which predicted a result that I, in fact, got, about how many girls in the class would rate themselves as pretty surprising, and how that would square with how surprising most girls thought the average should be."
"Can't answer that, I didn't warn people I might tell others the total results."
"The point is, the results I got matched a pattern. That pattern also matches Pilar going to Elysium, and Ione delivering prophecies. If you'd happened to die and then come back with superpowers, that would've matched too..."
"This would make more sense if I'd gotten as far into my Probability lecture as I was hoping for. It's important, doing these things, to try to say what will happen in advance. I was trying to do that with you - to guess that you would end up in the same category as Ione and Pilar."
Keltham doesn't suppress the smile that comes from verifying that girls are allowed to say that to him, thereby rendering meaningful other possible signals on that channel.
"I mean, they need to be able to be attracted to me, on the pattern I think I'm seeing. So if you're pretty confident you'll never be attracted to me, now that you've met me, then yeah, that would exclude you from the category."
"Unless you're the 'asexual'."
If Keltham were a Chelish person or able to read Chelish people, Asmodia might possibly have failed a Bluff check. He isn't, and he can't, so she hasn't.
"Can you possibly back up and explain what this category is," Asmodia says. "What this whole pattern is. I was thinking something that just got contradicted, like - the category is interesting girls who you can also have romances with -" She needs to dance carefully around the Keltham Corruption Project and not ruin it where Security will write down that she did. "- though, I mean, it's not like you couldn't have sex with an 'asexual', I guess, if that's what you were into."
"No, actually. It's not - my pattern, it's something out of dath ilan, that's in my memories, and the exact nature of it is something that wouldn't be easy to explain - but in the pattern, somebody - a man in this particular subpattern, though there are female versions too - comes across three to five very interesting girls with whom it's possible to have romances."
"Sometimes, though not always, there's an additional girl, an 'asexual', who has a special status within the pattern, often that she's the one standing back and watching the whole thing happen and talking with you about it. You might still date her and have a romance with her, maybe also marry her alongside the other girls. But you don't have sex with her at all, that's the point."
"We do have the option of breaking now and resuming at dinner, if it's really a place where things will be much easier to understand after one more lecture."
Which would give Asmodia time to flee, followed by time to think! Both of those kinds of time sound like good forms of time to have!
"You know, since it's you, I'll try improvising and see if you just get it."
"The general principle is, we compare the different ways reality could be, the different worlds we could be living in, and see whether our observations are more or less probable in different worlds. The fact that you didn't immediately say whether or not you were asexual, and asked me more questions about asexuals, doesn't prove you're an asexual. But you're more likely to do that if you're currently going WAIT WHAT inside yourself about how I mysteriously just nailed your sexuality - possibly one you didn't know was a standard sexuality five minutes ago, if Taldane has no word for 'asexual'. So my probability on you being asexual went up after that. Not up to certainty, just up."
"That said, the basic challenge, on a problem like this one where you didn't carefully write down your predictions in advance, is that you overestimate how much your favorite theory predicts things, and underestimate how much your less favorite theories predict things. I didn't expect, on being invited up here, that you were going to tell me you weren't currently attracted to me. It's not something the pattern told me to expect in advance. Afterwards, I thought of a different part of the pattern that could fit it, but the pattern is a very large one and has a lot of potential variations and you can probably twist it around to fit anything, the question is, how far did you have to twist it, and how much does that lower the probability it assigns."
"At least in dath ilan, I don't know about Golarion, 'asexuals' are not really that uncommon, and more common among women than men; the chance of there being an 'asexual' in a group this size is already probably something like 50%, and if anything, I'd guess that fewer than 50% of the instances of the pattern I was talking about have an 'asexual' in them. You could think about whether Asmodia is a special case of a random research group member, because she went to Hell and came back with no superpowers and now has a reason to talk with me, and whether it would be on-theme for the pattern if the 'asexual' was the one interesting girl who didn't have a weird background but was just very respectable by being better at Law than anyone, but the more you twist things around like that and specify more additional facts to make things fit, the more the probability goes down and down. It's like asking if a rival merchant ship will come in with a cargo of shoes from Absalom, instead of asking whether a competing supply of shoes appears in the city for any reason at all."
Asmodia nods along. She is tracking this; it unfortunately requires that she not process any of her other questions about what usually happens to asexuals in dath ilani romance novels, whether Keltham is suddenly offering her a much better deal on a marriage than she's likely to get anywhere else in Cheliax, or any suppressed panic she has about what Sevar will do to her if she accidentally offers Keltham any confirmation of tropes theory by being 'asexual'. And how much she may have already given herself away and whether she should try to lie to Keltham about it.
BY THE WAY SECURITY IF YOU'RE LISTENING, Sevar needs to be brought into this loop and caught up; a lie to Keltham may be required very soon. Please acknowledge.
"It's really not the least bit impossible, in a world that isn't being influenced by this pattern at all, that I come up with a weird theory about you getting superpowers after coming back from death, which is just completely wrong. This in a totally natural and ordinary way, causes you to ask me some questions about that, and it comes up in the conversation that you're not attracted to me. Which girls are allowed to be even if they're not asexual. Though - if it is because you're asexual and not just unattracted to me personally - it does seem a little improbable that they'd put an asexual in a group that was, I assume, put together the way this one must have been? Or did they not know that about you?"
She needs to lie; there's no time for Sevar to be brought up to speed if she's not in-loop already, she'll use the lie that Sevar already authorized it doesn't completely not fit. "What I'm trying to figure out right now is actually more like - if hypothetically I say something like, I've ever felt attraction to a boy one time, or a girl one time, even if nothing happened there because they didn't want me, so I could maybe possibly feel that for you, that means I don't get any superpowers. So I'd be thinking, maybe it wasn't real attraction and I don't even know what that would actually feel like, because, if it wasn't real attraction, I can maybe still be the asexual and get whatever nice things asexuals get when they're part of a pattern like the one you describe. Does dath ilan have any way to tell for certain whether somebody is asexual?"
"No, it doesn't. I'm sorry. People have looked hard for a test like that and not found it. Civilization does try very hard not to send asexuals a message that they need to be anything other than they are. But a lot of asexuals themselves still feel like they got a raw deal from biology, and if that's the way you feel, well, there are all these cases where somebody thought they were asexual for years and then it turns out that they started being able to feel attraction to this one person they eventually met or got to know well enough. It's not even all that rare. Which means that for the rest of the asexuals, if they don't want to be what they are, they can never be sure."
"It's one of the more genuinely awful fates in dath ilan, that a pretty significant chunk of the population gets handed, that Civilization hasn't been able to fix. There's been a massive search for drugs that will induce sexual desire in asexuals, not because it's wrong to be asexual, but because there's so many of them who do say for themselves that's not what they want to be and are offering huge drug bounties on it. As of when I left Civilization, all the drugs they'd ever found weren't very good and had large side effects."
"On the plus side, from my perspective - because I don't actually want to be in a pattern like that - an asexual who isn't sure she's asexual, who doesn't want to be asexual, who might eventually end up attracted to the protagonist and not have to be asexual anymore, is some degree of evidence against that pattern holding here. Actually fairly strong evidence against it holding, at least in this particular case. Because, like, that is a Problematic Message they'd never put in there, flaming shit would that end up in the Ill-Advised Consumer Goods store."
"Does that hold here? I notice you were careful to say 'hypothetically' and so on."
The desirable lie to Keltham seems obvious given her goals and Sevar's goals, but Asmodia will look down uncertainly and give Security a moment to tell her something, just in case Sevar has already been caught up on the transcript.
"Yeah," Asmodia says quietly after that pause. "Does that mean - you're not interested in, doing the thing you'd do inside the pattern, with somebody who knew she was asexual and was happy about that?"
Carissa is in the middle of catching up.
- okay but Asmodia does have superpowers. She's pretty sure. And is actually asexual. She's pretty sure.
.....is tropes theory actually true. That's not how Keltham would think about it, just balances of evidence, either way - but the balances of evidence weigh in favor of tropes theory more than they've let Keltham realize -
- is she actually a secret cleric? The Grand High Priestess's reassurance was carefully worded -
- no, that's stupid -
- does Asmodia have superpowers and how -
"Ask her," she says to Security, "to ask Keltham what superpowers she would've gotten if asexual." Because she is. So maybe she got them.
"We can always make our own 'eroLARP' with our own rules for it, if that's what we both want. I mean, the reason why that's part of the pattern in the first place is that it's something a lot of people would want for ordinary reasons, that there's somebody in the pattern who they can talk to without worrying about whether that's leading to sex."
"The most common outcome in Civilization is for asexuals to marry each other - to the point where it's an issue with respect to assortative mating prevention - but there's more female than male asexuals, so the second most common outcome for a female asexual who wants a stable heterosexual relationship is that she finds a man who can manage multiple relationships, who can have enough sex for himself with other women, but he could still use additional cuddles or emotional support or everything else that isn't about sex."
"Most probably, the superpower of being the best at math. And being in on the ground floor of Project Lawful, and having a chance to revolutionize Golarion and someday ending up incredibly rich. I mean, speaking of sending Messages that aren't Problematic, that sure is one that most authors will take an opportunity to mention, at some point, so that everybody in Civilization doesn't get a constant bombardment of fiction carrying the message that you need candy powers or prophecy powers in order to ever be important or worth dating."
"Not really the way I'd recommend thinking about it, but -"
"Well, first of all, you'd be much more likely to be a Combat 'Ace' or an all-anti-powerful Nullifying 'Ace' in the version of the pattern where everything is much more sexualized and we're constantly fighting off sexy Zon-Kuthon agents bent on dragging us away to have sex with us. In which case, the classic form of the 'trope' is that they can't use sexual mind control on you, and maybe you can also bop somebody on the head and make them snap out of the mind control."
"Those actually are the top two obvious possibilities. If it wasn't that, if it was a 'deconstructed' version of the 'trope' where it's supposed to be a nonsexy shadow of the sexy thing... something about nullification, maybe, something you can prevent or that you're immune to? Or something that conveyed, like, how people can care for each other in a way that has nothing to do with sex."
Well she needs to say something before Keltham starts getting suspicious.
"I was thinking that this pattern you keep talking about was the dath ilani equivalent of awful pre-Asmodean books, romance novels, full of, how did you put it, Problematic Messages, about women who stand around being pretty and conceited until a man decides he's really attracted to her and wants to do all the work of giving her a happy life without her having to be clever about it at all. I'm increasingly confused about what this is instead of that."
"So imagine that you started from there, took up the average Intelligence of the reader by 6 points and the average Intelligence of the author by 8 or 10 points, and then there was a Civilization of people many of whom had sufficient spare time for things to get really really really overcomplicated, and you may understand why I am not even trying to explain what an 'anthropic selection' effect that looks like a meta-'eroLARP' based on 'deconstructive secondary-literature' of an 'eroLARP' would be."
"It's looking like a moot point; a lot of the theory's predictions seem increasingly like false starts and - looking up at clouds, that weren't shaped to be faces, and trying to identify a nose and a mouth until you twist yourself around to seeing faces in the clouds."
"I do not think that quickly any more than you do."
"By the way, I notice I have a pending question you didn't answer, about how somebody like yourself ended up in the group of girls that got sent here? I'd otherwise imagine there'd be a screening question, like, are you liable to be okay having sex with Governance's sperm-harvesting target after a relatively short acquaintance."
This seems like a really bad question to even visibly hesitate on -
"I mean, I can still have high-Intelligence kids with somebody? I did not plan on going the rest of my life never having sex with anyone even for purposes of having kids, and I was okay with having more sex than just the minimum for those kids."
She knows that's an unauthorized lie, Asmodia's judgment was that it would have looked very suspicious to delay to ask for authorization.
Asmodia stares out at the coast, it's windy enough today that there's regular crashing waves, and she can, if she makes an effort, not think about anything at all.
She doesn't want it to seem suspicious, when her mind actually does go quiet from the perspective of listening Security.
When she legitimately hasn't thought much, for a short while, she imagines herself back in the Gardens of Erecura, in the midst of Dis, as is under the seal of Hell, and thinks.
Does Asmodia want to be married to Keltham, even if she never has sex with him, even if he gets all his sex from Sevar and Ione and Pilar? It's an important question for reasons beyond the obvious.
She wants to make fifth-circle and Teleport herself the fuck out of Cheliax and live the rest of her life answerable to nobody, is what she actually wants. And then at the end of that, go to the gardens of Erecura forever, or go to Abaddon briefly.
Keltham may have neglected to explain the difference between aromantic and asexual, and Taldane certainly isn't helping out with words for such things. But even so, Asmodia knows, she is not just sexually unattracted to Keltham. She does not dislike him, and for certain she would choose him over every man of Cheliax; but there is nothing about the thought of establishing a household with him that appeals, compared to the thought of just walking away from everything.
What will Asmodia do, with this thought? Nothing, that she can think of that she ought to do, except to hold it secret behind her barrier.
Whether her Patron, whichever interfering god that is, is making use of her - or whether there is, as would be the moral of a dath ilani romance novel, someone somewhere in all of everything who cares - Asmodia is grateful, and wants more. So whatever is happening around her, though Asmodia does not understand it, she will surely not destroy it.
Keltham reconvenes his lectures, more aware than before that he is trying to teach in days what Civilization takes years to engrain when it forges a dath ilani; even if, yes, Civilization is teaching it to children rather than adults; yes, even so.
He may need to make more than one run on Probability in a lecture, if it's to be understood and used, as the other lectures Keltham taught were not quite meant to be used right away the same way. And then go on conveying it in his everyday words and actions, as adults show themselves before children.
From the other direction, this time; begin from the Law of Probability that would, if they were doing things in the right order rather than quickly, have been proven as the only possible Law that yields all of a collection of Law-fragments that would each have been motivated on their own.
The probability of an event is between 0 and 1:
\X. 0 <= P(X) <= 1
Definition: X \/ Y denotes "the event that X happens or Y happens or both happen".
Definition: X & Y denotes "the event that both X and Y happen".
Definition: ~X denotes "the event that X doesn't happen".
For every event, the chance that it both happens and doesn't happen is nope:
\X. P(X & ~X) = 0
And for every event, the chance that it either happens or doesn't happen is yes:
\X. P(X \/ ~X) = 1
If two events are mutually exclusive, in the sense that they can't both happen, the probability of either happening is the sum of the individual events' probabilities:
\X Y. P(X & Y) = 0 => P(X \/ Y) = P(X) + P(Y)
Or more generally, if they're not exclusive, we can still sum them by subtracting their overlap:
\X Y. P(X \/ Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X & Y)
Keltham shall first pause and call upon them to recognize that Probability generalizes Validity; the laws of logical reasoning, that are valid over every possible world, can be seen as a special case of reasoning with the probabilities of 0 and 1.
He shall then, by way of illustrating some of what is being skipped over, ask them what bad thing would happen to them if they tried to claim that some events could have a probability of 3 or -7.
They are not immediately sure.
"I mean, you can derive a bunch of silly things about the probability of all other events?"
"Yeah, like, things get more probable if you assert that a thing and the probability three event happen - wait, do they - that's not on the board but I'm pretty sure it's true -"
Why, nonsense, the probability 3 event and the regular event could be the sort of things that never happen at the same time, in which case the probability of their intersection is 0. Say, the chance that Keltham is holding a silver coin is 0.5, and the chance that Keltham is not holding a silver coin is 3. The chance that Keltham is holding and not holding a silver coin is surely 0.
Pffft, rules. What good do rules ever do anyone? Rules just stop people from doing what they want, and are therefore, universally, bad. If we're going to violate the rule about probabilities being between 0 and 1, let's violate the sum-to-1 rule too! Who needs that rule - what bad thing happens to you if you violate that one?
You can't just go about justifying rules by appealing to other rules, there has to be a reason why anyone cares about any of the rules in the first place!
The inevitable collapse of Asmodean sanity seems kind of hopeless for Ione to stop, actually? Once you're paying attention and your ears have been attuned to listen, you start to notice how Project Lawful may be the most intrinsically doomed thing that has ever been tried in the history of Golarion.
"Well, invent the principle then."
"There's at least two lessons here. The first lesson is noticing when you have no explicit idea why a set of rules has to be the way it is, and couldn't give a strong solid answer about what goes wrong, if somebody asks you, well, how about if the rules were different, how about if we break those rules? It's closely related to the art of making sure that your beliefs mean anything. The way of having math mean anything, if you are using that math for something and not just admiring it, is to say what ill fate would befall you if you used different math."
"And the second lesson is, Civilization didn't get to learn the principle that, yes, I haven't covered yet, by successfully noticing they didn't know it, and then sitting back in class waiting for a teacher or a god to tell them. The ancestors of Civilization noticed the gap in their knowledge, some people tried to fill it in, somebody eventually succeeded, and that's why Civilization now knows. You try. Come up with some bad thing that happens to people who assign a 300/100 chance that something happens. I'm not going to answer until I see somebody try, even if they fail, because I'd rather teach people to try and fail, then to teach them to wait for the teacher to answer."
"Say there's a merchant ship, and you make 100 gold if it comes back and 0 gold if it doesn't, how much should you be willing to spend to send it? If it has a .5 chance, 50 gold - eliding that you want a profit, for the moment - If it has a 0 chance, 0 gold. If it has a 3 chance....300 gold?"
"And now she's in the Overly Advanced Student Holding Cell, so you can continue to learn things in advance of your own headbands arriving. Also we should now have Fox's Cunnings to use if we run into a stumbling block, and I'm mostly thinking we should save them for more technical stumbling blocks, but if you feel like you have a thought and can almost complete it, you're allowed to request one, or use one of your own spells if you've got a Cunning hung."
"But to generalize the point beyond merchant ships, the purpose for which we ultimately use our wordless senses of which things are more or less likely, is to divide up our few resources between the many things we could potentially try to do. Not just limited resources like money, but limited time, limited attention; you can only act so often and only think so much."
"Tomorrow will go differently depending on whether Nidal has figured out our new location and attacks us again even with their god sealed up, or if, alternatively, we have an enjoyable day of lectures and me learning some magic and other activities. In the latter case, Fox's Cunnings are quite useful. In the former case, where Nidal attacks, Fox's Cunnings are less useful and spells for setting things on fire are more useful. But again if it's a peaceful day, spells for setting things on fire are less useful."
"So how can we possibly plan, in such an uncertain world? The best strategy if the universe is one way, is not at all the best strategy if the universe is a different way! And we are uncertain and can never attain absolute certainty because it's not the sort of thing that's true in every possible world, and if it were we might make a logic error anyways. Oh woe! Oh alas! Shall we just choose at random since no choice is perfectly defensible?"
"And the answer is, you put weights upon the different worlds that might be true, and figure out the consequences in those different worlds, and weigh those consequences according to their probability. A thing that makes the scale from 0 to 1, more useful than the earlier scale from 1-12, is that 0 reflects not being at all concerned about the consequences to us in some world, because we think that reality just can't be that way, we multiply the weight of consequences there by 0 hundredths out of 100. 1 says that we're going to weigh the consequences only if that proposition is true, because we are certain of it; we're going to take all of those consequences as objects of concern, and not diminish them at all in proportion to their uncertainty and unlikelihood. To be clear, we are never actually certain; even Nethys, Ione told us, reasons in probabilities, just more extreme ones. But sometimes we are sure enough that it's not worth the cost of thought to weigh the other possibilities more finely."
"A probability of 3 is like saying that the consequences of something weigh on your mind three times as much, getting three times the share of your limited resources, as some possibility you were absolutely certain of; and if you try to cash out what that could even mean, you start getting results like the one Carissa talked about - that you spend 300 gold with certainty, in order to make back 100 gold with probability 3, because that outcome weighs three times as much in your calculations as if it were certain."
"Among the ways that we'd make our way to the corresponding law-Fragment if we were doing everything in slow careful order, would be to show that, if we're not going to end up going in circles in certain ways, we need to consistently weigh the possibilities we deal with, and make choices based on weights of consequences, and these weights of consequences end up looking like multiplying the consequences by their probability. And then having gone through all that slow pathway, you'd be able to say, more generally than in the special case of merchant ships that have costs and profits measurable in gold, what ill fates will befall someone if they weigh a consequence three times more strongly than if it were certain."
"That's the principle you're missing, in this case. I'm not actually going to cover that Law-fragment at least today, but I wanted to at least make clear what I was skipping; because someday in due time you're going to have to redesign Chelish education, and it's going to have to go back and fill in, not just that part, but all the other Law-fragments we're skipping that pin down and spotlight the Law of Probability."
"Or to summarize, and maybe to see it at a glance: To see what bad thing would happen to you, if you assigned a probability of 3, you'd have to be using that probability for something and doing something with that probability, such as, for example, sending out merchant ships, or making a bet, or deciding how many of your limited spell slots to spend on preparing against a Nidal attack."
"Interesting question! And you might ask then, what if there's magic that can make three copies of somebody? Maybe you just can start with 150 INT 15s and get 450 5th-circle wizards. And, if so, what would it be like to be one of those wizards? Should you then go around saying that your chance of making 5th-circle is 300%, and weigh the consequences of that three times as much as if you were certain?"
"This however would get us into 'anthropics', and we are not getting into 'anthropics'. That, by the way, is a general slogan of dath ilani classes on probability theory: We are not getting into 'anthropics'. I'm not even going to translate the word. As long as you don't make any copies of people, you can stay out of that kind of trouble. That trouble-free life should be our ambition for at least the next several weeks."
"Moving on! I now introduce a new key definition, that of conditional probability:"
P(X◁Y) =def P(X & Y) / P(Y)
"For example, in the case of Int 15 wizards who make 5th-circle:"
P(INT 15) ~ 0.01
P(INT 15 & 5th-circle) ~ 0.0002
P(5th-circle ◁ INT 15) ~ 0.0002 / 0.01 = 0.02 = 2/100
"If we start with 100,000 Chelish citizens, there should be around 1000 of them with INT 15, and then 20 of those who become 5th-circle wizards according to the statistics I totally made up this morning, and so 2% of people become 5th-circle wizards conditional on them having INT 15."
"The symbol is easy to remember because you can imagine that, on the right side, it shows a wide pool of people with INT 15, diminishing on the left side to a narrower pool of people who have INT 15 and are 5th-circle wizards."
So far away that there is no distance and no time between here and there, Thellim is trying for the first time to look up how statistics work on her new home planet.
The conditionalization operator is written "P(X|Y)" using a neat, symmetrical, vertical bar.
It doesn't weigh much against all the other bad news she's seen in the last day, but it is still not great news about how sane statistical mathematics is liable to be in this place.
"I'm not going to put you in the Holding Cell for that, but only because I didn't actually ask the advanced question you just went and answered."
"Yes. Though to state it more exactly, the right-hand side of the operator represents a starting set of worlds, such that we consider the probability of the left-hand side's event only within those worlds. We are not interested in the probability that a random Chelish citizen is a 5th-circle wizard; the total contribution there would be greater from INT 16s, or so it sounds like from what Carissa said. We're not interested in the probability that a random Chelish citizen is an INT 15 and becomes a 5th-circle wizard. We're interested in the probability that, if we select a random Chelish citizen, and then narrow our focus to only those worlds in which the random selection produced an INT 15, what is the chance within those worlds that the person becomes a 5th-circle wizard."
"Having assumed this fact away, it indeed becomes a premise for further deductions, as you say, just as if we were asking about whether it's valid that 'Y implies X' and for purposes of that validity are allowed to just assume Y is true. While asking about the probability that somebody becomes a 5th-circle wizard, conditional on INT 15, we have available the assumed fact of their INT 15-ness."
Keltham has deduced as much, but he's not putting her in there until it reaches the point where he estimates she's answering questions too fast and disadvantaging other students from learning. That's what it takes to get put in the Holding Cell! And for so long as Meritxell hasn't forced him to toss her in by threatening the other students with spoilers, she'll just have to try harder in order to get in.
Anyways, as a basic comprehension check, how about if everyone invents and writes down a conditional probability, including the underlying P(Y) and P(X&Y). First, in a case you're allowed to just make up. Then, a realistic case, something where you know, or can constrainedly guess, the actual statistics. No extreme stats where it's 100% or 0% of something. Raise an open hand if you're done, closed hand if you think you can't do it. (He's not expecting the latter, but why trust what you can cheaply verify.)
Pilar, who again has less practice than most Chelish citizens in her position with needing to constrain her own thought processes, gets it last; it takes her longer to work past her brain's repeated generation of forbidden suggestions that she can't write down for Keltham to check, like the probability that a citizen in Ostenso is a Lastwall spy. Eventually Pilar does get a made-up example about the chance a 3rd-circle priest ever reaches 4th-circle, and a real example about the chance she scores in the top 10% of class given that she scores in the top two-thirds of the class. She remembered and tracked this statistic because it determines who punishes who, but Keltham doesn't need to know why Pilar remembers it.
Somebody really should punish her for being slowest, but she can see about that later.
Quickly checking confirms that everybody got it basically right, modulo Yaisa who divided the number of girls who became wizards, by the number of wizards, to get the probability that a girl becomes a wizard, which... Yaisa maybe just needs to actually think about the meanings of the numbers, instead of writing symbols? Keltham was probably ever trained to do that as a kid, but he doesn't know how he was trained, it's the sort of thing that gets buried implicitly into learning something else. Maybe visualize the scaffolding between the numbers and reality like you could see it with Detect Magic?
Yaisa smiles like this is not at all the most horrifying thing that has happened since - well, she was going to say 'since Kuthites attacked' but actually getting something wrong which everybody else got right is more horrifying than that, and to top it off she's still incredibly confused about the concept here and imagining scaffolding isn't the helpful kind of advice at all. At...least....she's not going to be punished?
All right, let's try plowing back into how parsing everything into probabilities works. Once you've practiced these skills hard enough, they become mostly innate and you hardly need to resort to making up numbers in cases where you don't have numbers. Keltham can think of occasions in the last few days where he's made up numbers, but he's mostly needed to do that because of literally landing in another universe, and then a lot of those occasions would be weird to use as examples. There's a potential example from a conversation he just had with Asmodia, which is too weird to use, or so Keltham tells the classroom. And another example just from today's lunch, when Carissa and Ione and Pilar supposedly all went off to get Invisibility copied and it was exactly the three most obviously special girls from a group of eleven girls even though 'copy Invisibility' isn't specialness-laden, but the hypothesis Keltham was actually updating is again too weird to talk about...
Actually, if Keltham thinks back earlier, there's a less weird example. If you try to find a weird book at Ostenso wizard academy's library, so there's just one local copy, but most people wouldn't usually need to borrow it, what's the chance that it's already checked out when you first try to get it? Everybody close your eyes, think about the probabilities in your experience, put your hand all the way down for 0, all the way up for 1, closed fist to defy the question.
The back of Ione's mind is now calculating exactly how unlikely it is to randomly pick those 3 girls from a group of 12 and mostly getting 'really fucking unlikely what the fuck were you thinking' and while that was theoretically Sevar's responsibility to catch and Sevar made up the particular excuse she did, part of Ione still believes deep down that a senior Security is about to have a very unhappy 'conversation' with her about this.
It shows on her face not at all. She still grew up in Cheliax.
Ione puts her hand a third of the way up; alter-Ione has been checking out weirder books than cleric spell compendiums.
Heh. "Right. Well, this happened when I asked Ione if I could borrow a compendium of cleric spells, and she said that the book existed but was checked out already. I then considered two possible ways the world could be, and how likely those worlds would be to generate what I observed."
"In one possible world I could have been in, I reasoned, the library actually had plenty of books with all the cleric spells, but those books contained spells that Chelish Governance would rather I not know about, or Ione wasn't sure that was not true given poor general circulation of information around Project Lawful, so she told me there was only one such book and it was already checked out. If the world is one where Chelish Governance is generally trying to keep me and my capabilities under control, how likely am I to be stonewalled on a book of cleric spells while they try to quickly print up a new one without all the spells they don't want me to know about? My guess there was around 3/4, or 75% - it's not 100% because maybe they've already got an altered book printed, for example, and in that case they don't have to claim it's not there."
"In the other possible world, there's an ordinary library situation on which Ione reports truthfully. Then we ask how likely it is that there'd really be only one book with a compendium of half the economically important magic, even if the library is mainly aimed at wizards, and also this book is already checked out. In dath ilan that'd be very improbable. Here, I guessed 30%."
Keltham is writing on the white-wall:
P(no-book ◁ Conspiracy) = 75%
P(no-book ◁ Ordinary) = 30%
"Now, what is the Lawful way to think when you find yourself in that situation? Can you say whether or not I should then think the book was being hidden from me? Don't bring in all the other facts you know that might be relevant; just as a matter of math, in the Law of Probability, is there anything obvious you can do, any other conclusion you can derive, with the information written on the wall so far?"
"Okay Meritxell, that's twice in a row, go to the Overly Advanced Student Holding Cell and use Message next time."
"And yes, that's a fair point about Ione telling me about her magic library powers in the first place, but all that stuff falls into the category of 'please don't bring in all the other facts you know'."
Keltham writes on the white-wall:
Have:
P(no-book ◁ Conspiracy) = P(no-book & Conspiracy) / P(Conspiracy) = 75%
P(no-book ◁ Ordinary) = P(no-book & Ordinary) / P(Ordinary) = 30%
"This is as far as we can get by applying the definitions of terms we know, and it doesn't obviously let us derive any further interesting facts or quantities."
"Now, what I want to know is the chance that there's a Conspiracy going on or that things are Ordinary, given that I'm now nearly-certain-except-for-insanity-or-stranger-weirdness, by the way your language needs a shorter word for that, that I was told there was no book of cleric spells available in the Ostenso library. We could write the quantity I'm interested in as follows:"
Want:
P(Conspiracy ◁ no-book)
----------------------------------
P(Ordinary ◁ no-book)
"Let's talk a moment about the meaning of that term I just wrote down. First, in both the numerator and denominator, we're conditioning on being in a world in which I was told there was no book. Second, starting from inside that world, we narrow it down, in the numerator, to the worlds where there's a conspiracy; and in the denominator, worlds where it's an ordinary library situation and an honest Ione. By dividing these two numbers, we narrow them down into one number, and that one number is a quantity telling me the relative odds of the Conspiracy World and the Ordinary World; it's how many times more probable the Conspiracy world is than the Ordinary world. This single quantity might say, for example, 'Conspiracy is twice as likely as Ordinary' or 'Conspiracy is one-third as likely as Ordinary'."
"Why phrase it that way, instead of just asking how likely Conspiracy is in an absolute sense, after observing no-book? Why not ask for an answer that says, 'If I see no book, a Conspiracy is 20% probable' or some such? Because to get an absolute probability for Conspiracy given no-book, I'd have to consider every other plausible hypothesis that competes with the Governance conspiracy, including, for example, that Cayden Cailean suddenly mind-controlled Ione to answer falsely, in a way that Governance had nothing to do with."
"By dividing the Conspiracy probability and the Ordinary probability, we can ask about the relative chances there, without dragging in all other possible hypotheses involving say Cayden Cailean."
"Mathematically speaking, what further information do I need to derive that quantity I want, from the quantities I have?"
Need:
???
Asmodia quickly expands definitions on her scrap paper, and cancels terms a moment later:
P(Conspiracy & no-book) / P(no-book) P(Conspiracy & no-book)
--------------------------------------------------- = -----------------------------------
P(Ordinary & no-book) / P(no-book) P(Ordinary & no-book)
Shortly after, Asmodia calls out "Prediction" and Messages Keltham, to which Keltham nods.
Carissa is distracted by being annoyed with Keltham for being too hard to deceive. Why couldn't they have gotten a stupid dath ilani. Why couldn't they have gotten a properly Evil one.
- if she doesn't learn this stuff and learn it very thoroughly then she's going to lose. She wants to know how many times more likely a conspiracy is if there's no-book. It's not a real problem to do with a real conspiracy, it's just a bunch of meaningless symbols on a page and she needs to cancel some terms and -
"Prediction."
Meritxell is not nearly as sure of how you'd go about this on the math side but she knows the feel of the answer already. the thing you want is how suspicious to be, and obviously to know how suspicious to be you need to know how probable the thing you're suspicious of is, if someone says there's a stray dog that's less suspicious than if they say there's a dragon. And she just has to make the numbers on the paper say the thing that's obviously true.
"Prediction."
The concept of being so Lawful that you can figure out Laws authority hasn't told you about, is one that Pilar is still struggling with. There is little she will not do for her Lord Asmodeus, however, and it has been made clear enough to her that this work is important.
There's also not many ways you can go down this path, if you only do the derivations that are allowed, and that, Pilar is good at.
P(no-book & Conspiracy) / P(Conspiracy) P(no-book & Conspiracy) P(Ordinary)
------------------------------------------------------- = ---------------------------------- * --------------------
P(no-book & Ordinary) / P(Ordinary) P(no-book & Ordinary) P(Conspiracy)
She struggles momentarily what to do from there, but then she gets it.
P(no-book & Conspiracy) / P(Conspiracy) P(Conspiracy) P(no-book & Conspiracy) P(Conspiracy ◁ no-book)
------------------------------------------------------- * -------------------- = ---------------------------------- = -----------------------------------
P(no-book & Ordinary) / P(Ordinary) P(Ordinary) P(no-book & Ordinary) P(Ordinary ◁ no-book)
"I have the answer in symbols, but I'm not quite sure what it means now that I have it," Pilar says.
He'll wait for others to catch up, and then explain.
The key quantity needed is P(Conspiracy) / P(Ordinary), or any other quantity which determines that one, which for this example means how likely Keltham thought Conspiracy versus Ordinary was before the absent-book observation. Say, if Keltham previously thought a Conspiracy was 10% as likely as the Ordinary world, and then he saw the no-book observation, which in Keltham's estimate was ~2.5 times as likely if there's a Conspiracy than in the Ordinary world, the result is that a Conspiracy then becomes 25% as likely as the Ordinary world. So it goes from 'a tenth as likely' to 'a quarter as likely'.
Meritxell's observation is that Keltham also ought to take into account that Ione told him about her book powers in the first place, even though that makes it harder for Governance to control Keltham's information and potentially makes him suspicious if they try to. Let's say that's 1/20 as likely in the Conspiracy world than in the Ordinary one - not impossible, there's weird side possibilities where that could happen because Governance wasn't on the ball there, but yeah, sure, unlikely. So if Keltham took that argument at face value, he'd then multiply 'Conspiracy a quarter as likely as Ordinary' by 'observation a twentieth as likely on Conspiracy as Ordinary' and get 'an eightieth as likely'.
But then of course we have to consider how the three most obvious interesting-background girls, Carissa, Ione, and Pilar, all disappeared at lunch today, supposedly to copy Invisibility spells. Since Invisibility has nothing to do with interesting backgrounds, the probability of randomly getting that set of three women selected from twelve possibilities is 12 * 11 * 10 / 3 * 2 * 1, or 220:1. So the new odds of Conspiracy over Ordinary are 'an eightieth as likely' times '220 times as likely' or a bit less than 'three times as likely', 2.75 times as likely to be exact.
Keltham should therefore now consider himself 2.75 times as likely to be in a Dark Governance Conspiracy world than an Ordinary world. Does that reasoning sound correct to everyone?
She has a lie prepared but fine, then. "Okay, I won't explain, but it seems like it's some kind of error for that to be two hundred and twenty times likelier if - oh, wait, I can formalize that, there are possible nonrandom explanations for the event which aren't the specific theory you have."
"Carissa, even if you don't just tell them whatever the exact story is, you're not allowed to tell them the abstract form of the answer generalized from your knowledge of whatever the exact story is. You, Ione, and Pilar are all sitting this one out."
"Asmodia, Meritxell, you're allowed to answer too, this time, after a one-minute pause. Because an obvious avenue for this challenge, in advance of formalizing anything, is to try to say informally what's wrong with my reasoning, and then formalize it. My guess is that you two don't have as much of an advantage at informal argument, so it's safe to let you out of the Holding Cell temporarily; I could be wrong."
"Apparently not on the same level as Ione and Pilar by Golarion standards, but if you look at it from my perspective, randomly landing next to an INT 18 third-circle, with better spellcraft than fifth-circles with intelligence headbands, who can scaffold to spellsilver six feet away etcetera, is still a pretty interesting background even leaving out some other things."
"Though there's also the seed of a stronger counterargument there, if you want to double down on it and think you can translate it more into the language of probability."
"Any wizard who's the staff wizard for their unit at the Worldwound is going to be really good at something," Gregoria says. "If you're walking down the street and meet someone that cool, something weird happened; if you wander into a random fortress at the Worldwound it's not. ....I don't know if that's in the direction of the stronger counterargument. It just feels like you're double-counting or something. And if the group had been different people, and later you'd discovered, I don't know, that I'm the bastard daughter of the Baron of Arenys, then you could say that was proof of a conspiracy too."
"I agree that's something to be wary of in general - you don't want to look at what happened, and afterwards draw an exact category around it. In this case, though, I had in fact formed Carissa, Ione, Pilar, and Possibly Asmodia as a large distinguished mental category, in advance of seeing Carissa Ione and Pilar vanish mysteriously at lunch. It wasn't at all drawn up afterwards, in this particular case."
"Not to completely throw your fine argument out the window, however, let's say that the Conspiracy hypothesis really allowed for two possibilities: First, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar would vanish at lunch, and second, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia would vanish at lunch. So we now have the new probabilities," Keltham writes some more.
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220
=>
P(Conspiracy ◁ Carissa-Ione-Pilar) / P(Ordinary ◁ Carissa-Ione-Pilar) = 1/80 * (1/2 / 1/220) = 1/80 * 110 = 1.375
"So in the light of your new argument, I shall concede that the Nefarious Governance Conspiracy is only half as relatively likely as I previously calculated, 11/8ths as likely as an Ordinary world, not 22/8ths as likely."
"But this was surely the only error in my calculations and my totally Lawful argument; I doubt you can find any others."
Part of Keltham's brain also wants to start tracking the possibility that Gregoria is in fact the 'bastard??' daughter of the 'Baron??' of whatever, and Keltham tells it to shut up, either they'll end up dating or not.
Asmodia's minute is up, now. And during that minute, she's also thought about what her - Sponsor? - probably wants, from this whole situation. And while Asmodia's conclusion is mostly that she doesn't know, Ione did foretell the Zon-Kuthon attack and Pilar threw herself in front of Keltham. That's some evidence - Asmodia's not trying to Probabilize it right now - that her Sponsor does prefer that Project Lawful continue, rather than shutting down. So she's not hindering her Sponsor's work, probably, if she points out flaws in Keltham's argument here.
"Even if that is what they want you to think, you can't reasonably say that the Conspiracy premise predicts with total 100% probability that some set of girls will mysteriously disappear at lunch," Asmodia says. "There should be a third possibility, that nothing happens."
"There's a saying out of dath ilan, don't criticize people for using what you think are the wrong general principles for arriving to their correct answer; if you're right that they're using the wrong general principles, you can wait for an occasion when they're wrong, and point out the error then."
"So I'm not going to criticize you for claiming you could make ten thousand statements about that strong, as confident as you are now, and be wrong on average about once."
"I'll wait until you're actually wrong. Which will take, say, somewhere about four more occasions. Fewer if I actively try to lure you into it."
Well someone obviously came to a fast decision about whether she wants to be his nearly-ace harem member. Or maybe, only about whether she might want to be; but sufficient to start flirting about it, at any rate.
"But yes, you aren't particularly allowed to reallocate the probability of observations after you observe them. One way of thinking about it: Probability of Carissa-Ione-Pilar given Conspiracy is meant to capture the probability that Keltham would assign if you asked him beforehand about what was likely to happen at lunch. And all of the possible mutually-exclusive observations you can consider explicitly, need probabilities summing to at most 1. The probability that exactly Carissa-Ione-Pilar go off at lunch, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia go off at lunch, and that nobody goes off at lunch, must sum to at most 1. Realistically less than 1 because, say, I should've assigned some probability that, for example, just Ione and Pilar would run off, or that the whole lunch would be disrupted by a Nidal attack."
"This is why, especially at your stage of learning, we'd consider it a much more believable probability estimate, if you say in advance what will probably happen, compared to if you look back afterwards and come up with a reason why that event was clearly very predictable."
"If I'd thought in advance about the probabilities that Ostenso wizard academy would have any available books listing cleric spells, I could have considered the possibility that it would, and that it wouldn't, in an Ordinary world, and then considered the probability that Governance would need to stall me, in a Conspiracy world, versus having appropriately doctored books already made up. If I'd done that in advance, I couldn't be influenced, either when thinking about the Ordinary world, or the Conspiracy world, by wanting to make a world give the 'correct' result, because I wouldn't know, in advance, which result I would observe."
"Since I didn't think that quickly, I had to go back and make up the probabilities afterwards. And then there's a risk that, for example, maybe you don't want to believe in the Conspiracy world, so once you know that the real result is no-book, you're tempted to twist things around inside your mind and come up with a story for how the Conspiracy world would definitely have finished making up a doctored book of cleric spells by then, because they would anticipate my question and not want me to be suspicious about an absent book."
"If I make my prediction in advance, my mind will be less tempted to do that because I won't know that an absent book is the particular outcome that the Conspiracy world needs to dispredict in order for me to end up not believing that unpleasant thing."
"Dath ilani do have any skills for fighting that, for being able to come up with reasonable probabilities even after the fact; but those skills are difficult even for average dath ilani, which you frankly are not at this point. You can ask two groups of medium-rank Keepers for their conditional probabilities, one group before and one group after they find out the real answer on some problem, and there'll be no significant systematic difference between the groups. Because Keepers, that's why. You would not find zero detectable difference between groups of dath ilani with around my age and intelligence levels, asked to say the likelihood that there'd be no book of cleric spells available, in the Conspiracy world, and in the Ordinary world, both before and after they actually got that result."
"Everyone gets trained in skills that partially protect against assigning-different-conditional-probabilities-to-outcomes-once-you-know-what-the-outcomes-are, but that's, like, diminishing the distortion by a factor of five, not driving the distortion down to undetectable levels. That's the realm of, I would expect, sufficiently old devils, or gods - but definitely, it is known, Keepers rank four and up."
"Because - I would assume, and among other reasons - they practice really really hard until they stop doing it wrong, and not everybody has the time for that."
"So even I try to make my predictions in advance, if I remember and I'm not too lazy and it's important. So you at this point should strongly, though not invincibly, question and distrust any probabilities for observations that you make up after seeing the answer."
"I think once your Good people have enough Law to, you know, not end up being incredibly destructive and tearing through any social order they find themselves inside, there is frankly a lot to be said for having the people who keep custody of dangerous information, probably incredibly dangerous information, probably even more so in Golarion than in dath ilan, being people who innately lean towards defending alike the welfare of all sapient life. Provided those people are actually making correct predictions about what defends sapient life from harm without a bunch of terrible second-order effects, and not being systematically wrong in audience-predictable directions like fictional Good supervillains. There are, even I think, any places for Good in the universe, and that sure seems like one of them. If you have enough Law."
Actually, why isn't Otolmens classified as Lawful Good? Maybe ask Broom that at some point?
Carissa can think of counterarguments but isn't sure this is a point it's wise to argue. "Everyone in Hell is Evil and it works out all right? I guess we're lucky Asmodeus wants the universe to keep existing and have lots and lots of people who can grow into devils in it."
"Yeah, what does Asmodeus actually get out of it? Or is he just the god of Lawful Evil people, who, if he fell into the system himself, would actually be Lawful Good, but like actual Lawful Good and not whatever passes for horrible chaos-infused 'Lawful Good' in Golarion? I haven't actually heard any motives or plans attributed to Asmodeus except for Good ones like wanting Cheliax to have better technology and governance etcetera."
"I mean, He wants more people to become devils, so he wants Cheliax to be prosperous and have a large population; He wants other kinds of god-resources that are harder to directly explain but I think having more people and Lawfuller and Eviller people helps - like, He can pick them as clerics, He can interpret them better. He likes contracts - I think just in their own right, a contract that enables something weird and complicated is inherently pleasing to Him, which I suspect is why a devil took time out of his day to help you with ours - I think He's actually Lawful Evil, though, He's just pursuing his own ends, but it happens you can do lots more with a rich and Lawful civilization than with a weak and stupid one. I guess the gods who are Good would want a Lawful Evil god who had selfish goals that Good approves of, so maybe there was some selection operating long before recorded history."
Makes sense. Well, sort of. Wanting people to be devils still sounds kind of Good unless you're doing something else with them? But Keltham wants to get back to math.
"To put Asmodia's argument into symbols, we could rewrite," after a quick Prestidigitation, he should really hang two of those so he's not stuck constantly asking for help if he fails to catch one, "like so:"
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2000
P(Everything else ◁ Conspiracy) = 1998/2000
"Because in fact, I would have maybe assigned something like a 0.1% probability, if I'd had to start listing possibilities in advance, that either of those groups would go off by themselves at that particular lunch."
"But this doesn't completely trash the Conspiracy theory, because you could say something very similar about the Ordinary World; an Ordinary World wouldn't have given me any more reason to think a group of girls would go off by themselves at that particular lunch. Right?"
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000
"And so, I claim, we end up in the same place as before."
"Simplicity itself: In either an Ordinary world or a Conspiracy world, there is, from my perspective, a 0.1% chance that some group of girls will mysteriously vanish at lunchtime. In an ordinary world, the further chance that this group is exactly Carissa-Ione-Pilar is 1 in 220, via picking from 12 then from 11 then from 10, and there's six possible ways to pick Carissa-Ione-Pilar in any order, that way, which works out to 1 in 220 probability. If there is a dark government conspiracy, on the other hand, the group must clearly be either Carissa-Ione-Pilar or Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia, and for simplicity's sake we'll say that either case has equal probability."
"Well, I think the general point passes. What actually singles out Carissa-Ione-Pilar isn't the Conspiracy hypothesis at all, it's a completely different hypothesis, so, yes, the probabilities I wrote down were utterly bogus."
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Weird Other Hypothesis) = 1/2,000
"We're not going to worry about that last one, I mostly currently think it's incorrect. But now let me ask - do you all agree that, absent this weird other hypothesis, in either the Conspiracy or the Ordinary world, that in probable realistic real worlds where some set of three women go off by themselves, the chance of it being Carissa-Pilar-Ione is in fact 1 in 220? Carissa, Pilar, Ione, you're again not allowed to say anything here."
"Well, sure, but if you don't know anything about why, any set of three women is as likely as any other. After we see some particular set of three women, we can go try to make up a reason for why those three, but that gives us no advance reason to expect any three women over any other three - I so claim."
Even if he can't read the nervousness or confusion, that silence is probably not a good look for Project Lawful in front of Keltham.
"Some reasons you could make up, even if you had to make them up afterwards, would be more plausible than others," says Asmodia. "Meritxell and myself are more likely to find something to talk about with Sevar, than, say, Ione and Peranza talking to Yaisa."
"You could say that in advance, you wouldn't have to wait until afterwards. The hard part would just be - going through enough different groups of three girls, in advance, to hit the one that actually happened - and maybe you'll say that we shouldn't try to go back later, if we don't say it in advance. But you're a full dath ilani, you can do that, even if not perfectly."
"It's not true in real life that every group of three girls is equally plausible."
"Most possible groups of girls might seem pretty equally plausible from my perspective. Probabilities are in the mind, after all, and I don't know your interpersonal interaction details as well as you do."
"But, yes, I can think of any reasons why Carissa-Ione-Pilar might be a favored group, aside from 'anthropics' even. And yes, even if you're not a dath ilani, it can make more sense to, like, actually ask what the alleged reason was, before you conclude that it was a dark government conspiracy. Though, obviously, if it's a conspiracy under consideration, you can't blindly trust the putative conspiracy's answer either."
"What was it actually, Carissa? I've got my own guess mentally noted down already and at 40% probability."
"That was my guess except that I guessed Asmodia already had Invisibility. I'll count it as a partial win for me."
"And, you know, if the three of you happened to take that time to talk about anything else that you didn't want me to know you were talking about, which is why Ione and Pilar didn't just copy Invisibility off another Security, I'm not going to count that as lying, dath ilani do the same thing. You want your words to stay meaningful to others, by only uttering them when they correspond to reality; that's not the same as always revealing all your information."
"You don't need to comment on that, just saying."
"Interesting euphemism for that." Obviously the main way one would accomplish this is by dating Keltham.
"Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it. I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."
"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time. I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'. But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the convenient absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive. They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out. Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all. But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."
"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers. But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read here is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."
"All of this is of course ignoring the point that realistically Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."
"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - then you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."
"And if you specifically are here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts - well, in that case, all of you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."
"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break. Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"
You cannot, even if you are from Cheliax, tell that Pilar is anything but cheerful; she is making an actual effort about it, and drawing on her faith in Lord Asmodeus's inevitable victory.
So Pilar smiles cheerfully, as she stands up and brings forth cookies from wherever they wait.
...Apparently larger and nicer cookies than usual, iced with laughing faces.
Pilar's curse apparently thinks that some people need a bit of extra care, at this point, and also thinks that something is funny.
Carissa ducks out to use the bathroom and goes to Maillol. "We need him more distracted," she says without preamble. "He's smart and he's paying attention to the right things and I don't think we've lost the plot yet but I do think we're getting closer every day, which isn't sustainable. I want to try - having 'Lastwall' and 'Taldor' and 'Osirion' send emissaries, if we can swing it. I want to arrange that scrying field trip to Absalom and maybe an actual field trip to Goka on the grounds that it's far enough almost no one would be able to try anything - and as a bonus it's far enough away no one will know things about Cheliax. I want to catch someone attempting to infiltrate the grounds. I want a large bag of things we can pull out if he seems to be getting his bearings."
She pauses for breath.
"Asmodeus's instructions to me are a medium-hard no on a Goka trip, and Hell's instructions imply that's because there's a divine noninterference zone centered on Ostenso; if we take Keltham outside that zone, it's possible Abadar or Iomedae could sic Osirion or Lastwall directly on him. For the rest, I'll get it done if those are my orders."
"I register that after Keltham's interpretation of his Vision of Hell spell, I myself considered faking a Zon-Kuthon attack on this project, a smaller one, and not with a god-war starting afterwards. I rejected that plan without checking it with you," back when you were not my boss, "because at Keltham's Intelligence level I expected him to be suspicious of us having fed him exactly what he'd said he suspected. If we throw too many distractions at him, he may start thinking that he's in a game we're controlling." (Maillol isn't being a good Probability-user per se, he hasn't reviewed the Probability lecture, he is just an experienced project manager suspicious of Complications.)
"Opinions on specific proposals: The emissaries seem safe enough to fake, it seems like something alterCheliax would do and Keltham has no way of checking anything he sees. Scrying trip to Absalom sounds shaky, too much we're not rigorously controlling that could go wrong on us, but if you think that'll reassure Keltham, it might be worth it. Attempting to infiltrate the grounds - that makes him think this location is not secure, got known somehow, he maybe starts watching other people more closely if he thinks they might be infiltrators, requests a 'Glimpse of Beyond' spell to check. Again, might be worth it if that sense of insecurity is what you think we want. Clarity on goals and reasons would help me design an exact infiltration incident to your purpose."
"My original plan for keeping Keltham distracted, if that became necessary, was having girls dogpile him with overtures, and for them to fake interpersonal difficulties with him and each other as needed."
"I'm terrified of anything that might bring him back around to concluding that tropes are real, and I suspect romantic drama is that. Maybe non-romantic interpersonal difficulties among the girls, if there's any that won't ring outrageously false to him in the fashion that many real things do. I think Absalom is valuable precisely because we don't have control over what happens there, so it's credible, and it's not like people walk the streets proclaiming 'never contract with Asmodeans and the reason people don't like Evil is all the torture!'. But if there's somewhere like Absalom where Iomedae has less of a foothold maybe that'd be better."
Absalom is where the Starstone is, so where She ascended; all the Starstone gods are worshipped there.
"Oppara, or Isfahel. If Keltham asks the person scried-upon to ask some specific questions of the locals we can swing that with Suggestion or Dominate Person. Let's say no on infiltrating the grounds for now unless we need an emergency distraction for Keltham having a bright idea of some kind or another.
Next question. Do you think your Asmodeanism is built on a bunch of lies that will fall apart in contact with enough dath ilanism."
"Mine, no. An Atonement flatly wouldn't work on me, and I would not actually take eternity as a statue over Hell. I do not, in fact, have better options."
"All of the girls except Pilar, yes. They're not Inner Ring at all, weren't being tracked for it at second-circle, even after they sold their souls I was thinking of that more as an anti-oracle measure and a way of keeping them in line, and I admit my failure in not realizing earlier that this would create an inexorably developing problem as the project was redirected towards mastering dath ilanism."
...it actually is easier to say, and think, if he mostly doesn't expect to be punished significantly for that failure. Well. In the short term.
'wasn't being tracked for the inner ring' also describes Carissa, and she's not on the brink of betraying her god and her country to run off and hide behind Iomedae's paladins. The question that comes immediately to mind is 'why them and not me' but the answer comes to mind just as quickly which is that, yes, they also expect Carissa's Asmodeanism to fall apart.
Or maybe just that they think the reason Asmodeus picked her, out of all the girls, is that she's different from them.
If the girls all deconvert then the project fails, they're all executed, and Cheliax plays catchup stealing inventions from other countries and maybe eventually becomes Nidal, a god-sponsored country without ambitions beyond its borders where its god can't sculpt them precisely enough.
She can't allow that to happen.
"Do you think - the operative ingredient - of your Asmodeanism not being built on lies is the thing where an Atonement wouldn't work? You're not doing anything we could duplicate in students for whom an Atonement might work?'
"I will give you my opinion if requested, Chosen of Asmodeus, but you might be needing to talk to Subirachs. You exceeded my ability to correct you a while ago."
"From my perspective, which is narrowly focused on our Lord's aspect of tyranny, it's about what people want and what their options are. Pilar needs Asmodeus and has no other options among divinities. You are willing to undergo any amount of pain to become everything it is that you want to be, and I get the impression you've noticed at this point that there are things Axis and Heaven would demand you cut off from yourself. So you don't need lies to serve Asmodeus, and that qualifies you for the Inner Ring of people who are allowed to think."
"Most people don't like pain. Their inner lives aren't much more complicated than that. We put the Outers into whatever situation we have to put them into, to make sure they end up in Hell and stay productive in their mortal lives, and teach them to deceive themselves into believing that's their own choice."
"I respectfully register that you may not have grasped how stupid most people are and how short their horizons get. You may not have been read in on this part, Sevar, desertion is a major problem for Cheliax with wizards at fifth circle and above who can Teleport. Selling your soul is mandatory before that point. They desert us in significant numbers anyways. It's not even that they'd prefer nonexistence and are planning to buy a Plane Shift to Abaddon at the end of otherwise indulgent lives. It's that having to accept the hierarchy in Cheliax is an unpleasant thing that's happening to them right now, and the punishment in Hell can wait seventy years or so they hope, so they pick now over later and run. That's with people who were Intelligent enough to become fifth-circle wizards, though of their Wisdom I couldn't attest."
"What we've got going for us, with this set of students, is that they've sold their souls and will end up in Hell if they end up anywhere at all. Asmodia already decided that she'd rather take Abaddon, which isn't encouraging, but maybe losing half that way is still half left."
"But if our Lord put you to this task, then it must be a task that is possible. And if I had to guess myself, the answer might be - those who would rather take Abaddon cannot become dath ilani of Hell, only those who've sold their souls or cannot sincerely Atone or have wills incompatible with other gods can become dath ilani of Hell. But maybe dath ilanism does teach people not to be fucking stupid about their options like soul-sold wizards who desert on us, and that lets us scale about as far as other countries can take their own versions."
Carissa is confused, that fifth circle wizards desert even if they've sold their souls. It's confusing. It doesn't quite feel sufficient, that they're just very very stupid. Broken in some way, sure. She feels like Keltham, missing something that'd make the whole picture fit together, except usually when Keltham says that's how he feels he's actually missing eight things.
"I didn't know that. I'm - going to talk to High Priestess Subirachs. I - don't think it's a hopeless task but I did not have any idea how hard it was, and you should in fact have warned me sooner. I am aware you are all somewhat constrained by - trying to manage my situation - but what's important here is that the project not fall apart of contagious heresy and I didn't know it was close until Ione warned me." It doesn't carry a lot of force, as a reprimand with no punishment behind it, but it is what it is.
Message from Security: Keltham looks like he's thinking about reconvening. Ione Sala requests permission to conduct a fake poll of the class to see if they want an hour to digest Probability, tell Keltham the majority voted yes, and send him off to study magic with Meritxell for an hour; or, Sala's preference, permission to take Keltham aside and scold him about producing anxiety in the class. Sala also wants to know whether Asmodia in fact has superpowers and if she should read Asmodia in on, in Sala's words, the Asmodean sanity issue.
Ione is showing too much initiative and should stop it's kind of stressful having major decisions proposed by someone who is a heretic and not obviously working towards Asmodeus's goals here. She'd like closer attention to Ione's thoughts, please, what's she playing at, and -
- try to forget that she heard the suggestion itself and just think about whether she wants class to reconvene right now -
- no, because the kids could use more of a break.
Tell Yaisa to pull Keltham aside and ask very apologetically if he can walk her through the thing she got stupidly wrong again, she's worried if she doesn't understand it when we restart then she'll be even more confused by the end of the day. Tell Asmodia to try to come up with something clever to do with the underlying laws that produce Probability to distract Keltham with after that. Tell Ione that she cannot take Keltham aside and scold him for that end of section lecture, even if she thinks she would in alter-Cheliax, that's too many layers. Tell Ione that Asmodia doesn't have superpowers but is now doing a seduction gambit with Keltham off the lack of superpowers, and that Ione should not bring Asmodia in on anything.
And now to Subirachs, at a bit of a run.
"...I recently realized that I was not looking forwards to it as much as might be hoped-for in one of Asmodeus's own, Chosen. I don't fear the pain. I don't fear being a slave myself again for a time. I do worry - that my art might be smashed and remade entirely different in me, rather than perfected from this beginning."
"And what prompted this thought was wondering if - you might perhaps - be better at it, than those who now train souls and devils in Hell. The only reason I can think of for your price, not even to Lord Asmodeus, but merely to one devil of Dis rather than another, is that they think you will be much better at creating devils. I am wondering whether the correct way of training devils might - produce a devil whose arts of slavery are more like my arts, at the end."
"I have given some thought as to whether to request, as a reward for all my own service in this matter, to be Petrified until a thousand years after your own death, in hopes of being received by you in Hell."
" - that's what I was thinking too. Or -
- not specifically you, I don't know enough about you to know if I have anything to teach you, but Hell values the Project girls, so Hell can't be imagining that the point of us is to turn us into Contessa Lrilatha, because they already know how to do that. ...I guess we could just figure out how to do it more efficiently. But it seems to me like there's something Hell wants us to learn how to improve. And so the best answer to the girls is that I'm going to make sure that Hell is a place where they grow. Except.
They're not going to believe that, because it sounds completely ridiculous."
"We do have the option of swearing to Asmodeus of the truth of those things that we might tell them, by which we ourselves have come to suspect this. It doesn't do to overuse that option, lest they come to expect it and suspect all unsworn is lies. But it is an option, when you need to tell a fellow Asmodean something ridiculous and true - if you are about Asmodeus's own work, that is, lest you invoke His name for only your own benefit."
"There is also some degree of corroboration, if the Queen is willing to declassify it for them."
Jacint Subirachs hands Sevar a brief report written in the hand of and under the name of Abrogail Thrune, marked with nearly the most extreme possible Crown seals and penalties.
The Queen notes that this report was written after she reviewed the most recent batch of Project Lawful reports, including Sevar's apparent price in Hell and Keltham's speculation about what younger devils may not be allowed to know. The Queen remarks that both of these facts were of higher urgency than they were treated as, and future such points should be reported to her immediately rather than batched.
After that review, the Queen at once set aside all her other work to inquire certain matters separately of Lrilatha and Gorthoklek. And then summoned a series of devils herself, up to the most powerful she could summon without that being a grave matter.
The results show that the most powerful devils the Queen can lightly summon - admittedly, not mighty ones by Hell's standards - seem entirely ignorant of matters like whether there are twenty-one or twenty-three pairs of packages of heredity-specification in a human body. Lrilatha answered correctly, but also answered affirmatively when asked if she had come by that information by way of Keltham.
Gorthoklek, who is nearly royalty of Hell (though, the Queen notes, relatively young for a pit fiend), cannot answer; and if Gorthoklek is shown the information by way of Keltham, he can then answer regarding what he has seen in the report, but he still cannot answer the question on his own terms.
The Queen speculates that the price for why Hell can seemingly back Cheliax to a greater degree than other Outer Planes back their mortal worshippers, is that Asmodeus and His highest slaves are extremely constrained in what they tell those beneath them in Hell who hold more commerce with mortals; saving perhaps the very highest devils who can perfectly avoid leaking any such information by any pathway. Such enforced ignorance, in exchange for power in the mortal world, seems not discordant with His aspect of tyranny.
The Queen speculates that there is however no prohibition against a soul being allowed to retain and use such knowledge that it learned in life. For if this is not so, Sevar's price in Dis seems inexplicable.
The Queen inquired of Gorthoklek upon all of this matter, and Gorthoklek said nothing to all of it, nor encouraged any of it, but neither did Gorthoklek call it prohibited.
"Oh."
It's not in itself very important how many pairs there are in humans, devils might just have no occasion to know it, but.
The Outer Planes have secrets, everyone knows that. And Hell has the most secrets; few can even set foot in Nessus, Hell's deepest layer. And the gods are sharply constrained in what interference treaty permits them. Asmodeus sent Gorthoklek and Contessa Lrilatha to Cheliax as advisors; Abadar has done no such thing in Osirion, that anyone knows of. No angel sits at the right shoulder of Queen Galfrey in Mendev, the paladin of Iomedae who holds her country's border with the Worldwound.
So the shapes of the constraints are different for different gods.
Secrets not just about Asmodeus or about history, but about Law, about the fundamental nature of reality -
"If the project lasts even a few years, we'll know things that only senior devils know. And Hell wants us very badly, and will prize us highly.
I am tempted to tell the students the whole of the reason I didn't sell my soul at first, and the whole of my attempt to sell it yesterday, and then tell them that if in order to make my project work I have to set up an entirely new training program in Hell, then I'll do that, and the only thing they need to be afraid of is my failure. Does that sound right?"
"I think - there will be some for whom that will be enough, for Meritxell, it will be enough, for Gregoria enough, for Asmodia it will not be enough but perhaps she would be willing to serve in Golarion if not in Hell and that would be enough for us, Paxti and Yaisa are not thinking enough upon such matters for their thought-transcripts to be helpful and I know not what will become of them if they start thinking, contemplating that plan for Peranza gives me an uneasy feeling, and of the others I am not sure."
"Huh. I guess I can take them aside one at a time and start with the ones that I have a plan for.
Are you worried for my soul? I feel loyal but I keep thinking that if I were a different person watching Carissa and adding up probabilities I would be worried, and - I want to be steerable."
Keltham was in fact pondering that, but decided that the evidence seemed slight enough to go under the heading of "orient more to Golarion first" rather than "note it on the list". If you want to pick up tiny pieces of evidence like that you'd better also start noting all the times Carissa doesn't take an eight-minute bathroom break as evidence the other way.
Besides, if Yaisa and Asmodia are meant to be distractions on purpose they're impossibly obvious ones.
(Security conveys Ione Sala's thoughts to Sevar. Sala's other thoughts show a weary contempt for Asmodean idiocy, but an apparently sincere belief that Lord Nethys would want her to keep on bailing these idiots out of their own idiocy until that's obviously no longer tenable. Sala is also contemplating trying to further advance her own relationship with Keltham, to make surer that she ends up with him if he leaves, and remains able to continue doing whatever Lord Nethys wishes her to do for him.)
(Also Sala is trying to figure out whether her interest in scolding Keltham is anything sexual or not, because she's definitely finding it strangely fascinating.)
Carissa agrees that Keltham is adding up further evidence from everything that happens, because he told them that he was doing that in so many words not five minutes ago. Ione seems a little attracted to this vision of herself as the lone genius who can see what no one else can but Carissa is in this case incredibly unimpressed. Carissa does not want Ione to have a conversation about how scary this would have been if they were, you know, actually in a secret conspiracy, into which Keltham can meaningfully interpret lots of random phrases or facial expressions. She really thinks that conversation is likelier if Ione has something secret to convey to Keltham than if she does not.
And Ione's permission-denied was already communicated, which means that Ione thinks she's achieving what, exactly, by making the request again? Permission remains denied.
Carissa doesn't know whether people get beaten for that in Taldor but someone should look it up.
Security will put someone on it. Note though that Ione Sala has a previous agreement with Elias Abarco about her being treated as a friendly Nethys worshipper rather than an Asmodean so long as she behaves herself.
If that gets unilaterally renegotiated, there will be a lot of Securities wanting to stand in line and take turns.
On getting back to the room Carissa takes a cookie and joins some other girls who are ranking the Securities by how much they look like they really hope Nidal attacks so they can kill someone, because if the people with individual questions for Keltham ceased immediately when she returned then that really would look suspicious.
The cookie is delicious.
Message from Asmodia: Asmodia requested a Fox's Cunning and Owl's Wisdom in order to actually be able to come up with interesting questions for Keltham on the fly like that, which is in fact harder than people might think and can't be reliably done on future occasions.
While she's still enhanced, Asmodia wants to say that she's worried about the lack of intraproject communication, and proposes that a Nap Stack be set up for everyone tonight so that they can all stay up and get caught up on everything that's happened so far, including whatever Sevar considers to be the official line on Asmodia, and on Keltham's romance-pattern theory that they don't want him believing.
Also Ione asked Asmodia if she did in fact have superpowers, and was now one of the special girls like Keltham thought. Asmodia told Ione that Milani came to her inside Hell and granted her the power to cancel enchantment-compulsions by hitting people on the head (not true). It only occurred to Asmodia afterwards that there is probably some kind of policy constraining information about Keltham's pattern-theory, since Asmodia hadn't already been told about it earlier. This is the sort of thing Asmodia thinks the Nap Stack plan might solve.
A Nap Stack allowing for an evening briefing would be great. It'll oblige all the girls to sleep in a 30 foot radius and Carissa can't predict whether Keltham will want her in his bed tonight but maybe they can be ready to cast it tonight if she can join them and tomorrow if she can't.
Carissa told Ione that Asmodia did not have superpowers. She's not totally impressed that Ione also asked Asmodia. Carissa would love for Asmodia to be more candid with her about what exactly they're covering for, but in the absence of that, the line on Asmodia is that she doesn't have superpowers, obviously, because if she did then that would have been reported to the Crown.
Asmodia notes that she suspects Ione asked Asmodia first, since Asmodia can't order Ione not to ask Security after that, and only then asked Security. Rather than first ask Security, and risk being ordered not to ask Asmodia. This is obviously the sort of attempted cleverness that you'd punish if Ione were punishable, and that Ione did it anyways is evidence (in Keltham's sense) that Ione thinks she's not punishable for that kind of transgression. Asmodia is confused about Project Lawful's stance on Ione.
Asmodia did expect that Sevar would say the official line is that Asmodia has no superpowers. The question is if the other girls should be told that Keltham thought she might be part of a romantic pattern, but Keltham rejected that theory after Asmodia falsely told Keltham that she wasn't a full asexual, but Asmodia is in fact one, which Keltham must not be allowed to suspect. Or told that Keltham said having no superpowers except being good at math would be on-theme for an asexual. Asmodia feels like she keeps tripping up on inadequate information herself, and registers her own opinion that everyone who isn't Keltham should be told everything.
Also Asmodia herself requests, for whatever that's worth, to be read in on everything to do with Keltham's pattern, transcripts of anything he's said about it anywhere.
Asmodia registers, before she forgets, that she thought that two-thirds of the class going quiet during Keltham's conspiracy lecture was a bad look, and that Asmodia, Sevar, Pilar, Meritxell, and Ione should have some explicit policy about trading off turns on speaking up to cover any future frozen silences. Is it possible to train students out of going quiet like that? Asmodia imagines Keltham saying that you have to identify one person, at a time, who has the responsibility to speak up, so that the class doesn't look quiet. But you have to somehow do that in a way that makes the probabilities look the same to Keltham for which girl talks next.
Asmodia apologizes for all this pestering, she is trying to say it all while the Cunning and Wisdom still hold.
Carissa should try Owl's Wisdom herself.
Those are good suggestions; they're appreciated. Elias Abarco unilaterally negotiated some kind of thing with Ione and Carissa needs to figure out what to do about it; everyone is pretty fed up with Ione but she seems to believe herself to be heroically saving the stupid Asmodeans from themselves, which is maybe useful. As soon as there's time Carissa will read Asmodia in on the patterns thing, and requests in the meantime that Asmodia contemplate whether, given what Carissa already knows, there's anything she could usefully be told about how Hell can be made good for girls who've started down the path to dath ilanism.
Um. There's a great solution actually but it's Secret and Asmodia doesn't know if it works for anyone besides her.
Asmodia Messages back, "I confirm I heard." She does not think she ought to acknowledge it as an order.
The Owl's Wisdom and Fox's Cunning wear off nearly simultaneously and it feels, not like dying, she has died, dying doesn't feel like this.
For a second Asmodia thought she could almost do it, almost think like Keltham does, match him on his own level and shape the probabilities he saw so that nothing would alarm him - if that's even what her Sponsor wants -
Asmodia Messages Security to queue a message for Sevar next time she checks, she doesn't want to disturb Sevar again now. The message says that if they're allowed to request anything they want in order to help the Project, Asmodia thinks a headband of +4 Intelligence and +4 Wisdom might barely suffice to let her run the probability-shaping side of Cheliax's game against Keltham.
Asmodia almost had it, or she thinks so. Asmodia thinks she was almost seeing the way Keltham sees, in brief flashes she didn't know how to put into words, this more likely, this less likely, shifting balances between them that shift other probabilities - and it excites her, she can see the game he's pointing to, between opposed dath ilani. She almost saw the game, and Asmodia wants to play it. And yes, she also wants an excuse to get the headband that she'd need to win.
She can always fuck up deniably if it looks like her Sponsor would want that.
Carissa meant it, about giving all her slaves intelligence headbands because more capable people are just better.
She has somewhat mixed feelings about this exact specific instance.
- later. She can make that decision while Owl's Wisdomed herself, and possibly actually literally contact Hell about what Asmodia's whole deal is. But the fact of the matter is that she's not yet competent enough to win this game, and if Asmodia might be - and if Asmodia is on their side -
- but what in Hell could possibly have put Asmodia on a different one? Certainly Asmodia having secret powers from Hell is likelier in the case where Hell saw a way to help them, than in the case where someone is subverting the operations of Hell. Lots likelier. Call it....ten times likelier? A hundred?
She tells Security to tell Asmodia she's thinking about it.
Keltham now continues upon his project of making random diving runs on Probability from random angles in hopes of conveying a fragmentary understanding to adults over days instead of a true understanding to children over years.
Based on how confused some people were at the end of the last session - assuming that wasn't an elaborate Conspiracy distraction as Carissa pretended to go to the bathroom while actually having frantic conversations about how Keltham might be on to them (again, said out loud) - Keltham starts by posing a bunch of mostly-algebraic problems for deriving various quantities from others, what other places might call sheer math homework.
Yes, he knows that he's using unknown dath ilani places and people and objects and statistics, and that he might as well be using gibberish words instead. He just doesn't know enough about Golarion to make up 12 realistic Golarion statistical problems, so just treat everything as algebra, please, and bear with the awfulness.
Likelihood ratio on ~~~ between ~~ and ~~~~ is 4, if P(~~◁~~~) = 68%, what was P(~~~~◁~~~)?
(It's pretty tame awfulness by comparison to math homework in almost any Chelish math class. The main awful thing about it is how Keltham doesn't work any similar example problems before expecting you to solve the ones he poses. The other awful thing is that Keltham sometimes makes mistakes in his own math, and when that happens he expects you to argue with him when he gives you the wrong answer.)
Keltham is constantly tracking the Conspiracy world in his mind. That's part of this. He's living in both worlds simultaneously and distinctly and unhesitatingly. There's no pause in him about whether or not the Conspiracy is real, for purposes of accusing Carissa of being in on it within the Conspiracy world. Keltham steps all the way mentally into the world where the Conspiracy is just a thing and Carissa is just part of it, and then in that world when Sevar suddenly vanished away 'to the bathroom' obviously she was up to something in response to his own lecture and obviously the other students' questions were meant as a distraction.
Asmodia sees the game now, has seen the game, even without the enhancement spells she remembers.
Cheliax can't rely on what anything 'looks like', they can't ask if it's a 'giveaway' or if it could 'just as reasonably be something else'. Keltham isn't going to wonder each time whether or not the Conspiracy is real and mentally back down from labeling Carissa's departure as suspicious. Cheliax has to consider what everything will look like to Keltham while he's mentally inhabiting the world where the Conspiracy is just real and there's no arguing with that.
There was only one guaranteed-correct move in that game, and it was to mentally live inside the alterCheliax world themselves, and just do what alterCheliax would do, notice every time anyone's overt behavior departed from their behavior in alterCheliax whether or not that looked like a giveaway at a first glance. Sevar needed to notice that the version of her not in the Conspiracy world probably did not suddenly need to go to the bathroom, because Keltham did notice that. If that was even twice as likely on the Conspiracy world as the Ordinary world, and Keltham correctly estimates that, Asmodia has grasped by now that a lot of "twice as likelies" multiplied together can add up very fast. Only - they can't just live in alterCheliax either, she doesn't think - they can't win that way, convince Keltham it's all real - he doesn't know what the real Conspiracy or real Ordinary worlds would be like, they have to use that somehow -
Asmodia sees the game, the game between true dath ilani. She can't properly play the game against Keltham without enhancement, but she can see how fast Cheliax is losing. They can lose it very quickly once Keltham gets oriented enough that he starts believing in his own numbers. Hours, not days. It's all there in the math.
And that's enough of Keltham doing all the work of inventing homework problems himself. They've solved some, now, they should be able to make up their own probability problems.
Everybody in class make up one probability problem, copy to a scrap of paper, write what you think is the correct answer on the other side of that scrap of paper, then pass it around for others to solve, starting with Keltham.
A man is walking down the street in Ostenso dressed in silk robes. What are the odds that he is a noble?
You see a wizard cast a Dimension Door. What are the odds that the wizard is fifth circle?
A bird that lands on your windowsill is behaving suspiciously. What is the odds that it's a polymorphed spy?
Six students gave the exact same wrong answer on a math test. What is the odds that they cheated?
He'd kinda meant to make up a problem like, here are three quantities, determine a fourth one algebraically.
But that's fine; those four students can just make up the key quantities needed and note them back down on their questions, right? They don't have to be right, just plausible.
(Though that fourth one is gonna be kinda hard at their level...)
Yep! Say one in two hundred people is a noble and all nobles wear fine clothes and so do one hundredth of non nobles.
Say that all wizards who cast Dimension Door are at least fourth circle and a third of fourth circle casters are fifth, but fifth circle casters would be twice as likely to cast Teleport in that situation.
Say that, uh, 999/1000 birds are just birds, and birds behave suspiciously 1/100th of the time, whereas spies behave suspiciously 80% of the time.
Say that a quarter of students cheat on math tests, and that a student cheating off another would definitely have gotten that wrong answer, and a student who wasn't might have a one in five chance of making that mistake by chance.
Probably a hundred students took the math test.
....no one is sure what percentage of birds are legitimate birds. One in a thousand doesn't sound egregiously wrong. Probably it's much less in forest but in places where wizards hang out - they wouldn't all be Polymorphed spies, but they could be familiars, or trained scry-focus animals. Obviously here the Forbiddance will kill birds that enter it.
Running some numbers off the back of his head, Keltham estimates there are around 100 billion birds in dath ilan.
Golarion's population is 1 billion.
Is 10% of the population creating bird-spies or bird-familiars, or is 1% of the population making 10 bird-spies each? Are there many fewer birds in this world, somehow?
Keltham resumes trying to drill basic probability algebra from some different angles. Consider the probability that a fifth-circle wizard knows Teleport, and the probability that a fifth-circle wizard knows Dimension door. Given the quantities:
P(Dimension Door ◁ 5th) = 40%
P(Teleport \/ Dimension Door ◁ 5th) = 80%
P(Teleport & Dimension Door ◁ 5th) = 30%
...how many 5th-circle wizards know Teleport?
Security, pass to Ione and copy Sevar:
Ione, I know you'll say that was what alterIone would've said in alterCheliax, but I think it was still a misstep. Keltham himself may think that people are twice as likely to probe him about Conspiracy questions in the world where there's a Conspiracy, and if he thinks that, you just screwed us. Once he starts believing his own numbers, it only takes 10 things like that for the probability to go from 0.1% to more than 100%... wait, that can't be right. Still, don't.
Reply:
You don't get it because you're Asmodeans. You don't understand the world you're trying to fake. People who aren't risking torture for asking wrong questions will ask things like that. Somebody needed to be clever at him, or Keltham would notice nobody was allowed to be clever around him. He comes from dath ilan, do you think nobody there dares ask a question like that?
Strongly seconding Asmodia. Also, that conversation was pretty similar to the conversation you asked earlier to have and I told you no. When I tell you no, I don't just mean 'don't do the exact specific thing you were denied permission for', the denial should have obviously been understood to encompass having excessively meta flirtatious conversations with Keltham about whether we're in a conspiracy, in general, until you've convinced me that they are a good idea, which you haven't yet. Ignoring orders because you think you're smarter makes you incredibly costly to work with, and if you're incredibly costly to work with then I'll direct them, when this falls apart, to turn you into a statue rather than let you run off with Keltham and reap the benefits of fucking up our project.
And to put the statue somewhere where it serves Cheliax if it explodes.
Understood?
Wait, does her curse make her explode if she goes too long without reading? Ione has not previously been notified of this.
...Ione should probably find this to be a very cool and exciting prospect, right? Ione is very grateful to Lord Nethys for giving her a curse that makes her explode. It probably even helps protect her from silly Asmodeans. It's a protective explosion. An explosion of kindness. Ione is very grateful.
It doesn't interfere with Nefreti Clepati bringing her back though, right? Obviously right. Lord Nethys wouldn't make an oracle just to deliver one prophecy and later explode takaral...
Ione does have some remaining purpose other than exploding right?
"So," Gregoria says, "the probability that a fifth circle wizard has Dimension Door is 40%, and the probability that a fifth circle wizard has one of Dimension Door or Teleport is 80%, and the probability that a fifth circle wizard has both of Dimension Door and Teleport is 30%? Am I reading all the symbols right? Does the 'or' include the ones who have both?"
"Okay, so, a hundred fifth circle wizards. 80 of them have some teleportation magic. Of those, 30 have both. That leaves 50 who have one but not the other. And 40 have dimension door, but that's counting the 30 who have both, so 10 have dimension door and not Teleport, so 40 have Teleport and not Dimension Door. ...did I do that wrong? I feel like I wasn't using the rule we learned earlier."
Keltham is starting to get the impression there's tiers of students here, even in this population already selected on Intelligence. Carissa-Asmodia-Ione-Meritxell, Pilar-Peranza-Gregoria-Tonia, Everyone-Else.
...well, it's not a very nice outcome, but, it is well known that sometimes in a startup, somebody has to take responsibility for deciding that not everyone has the same ability level and maybe not everyone gets to stick around.
Part of him wants to wait and see if intelligence headbands fix everything, but maybe now that Governance is taking the project more seriously, the correct thing to do is put those headbands on smarter people. They're almost a week in, and a week is when they said that their original one-week contracts ran out.
Argh, he hates this and must think about it eventually but will think about it later. He's too selfish to just decide that people need to get fired for the Good of Golarion, the personal awfulness is looming large compared to that.
Anyways, Keltham walks through the derivation by rules.
P(Teleport \/ Dimension Door) = P(Teleport) + P(Dimension Door) - P(Teleport & Dimension Door)
Obviously you can get the fourth quantity if you have any of the other three, because algebra, and that's all they need to do here.
P(Teleport) = P(Teleport \/ Dimension Door) - P(Dimension Door) + P(Teleport & Dimension Door) = 0.8 - 0.4 + 0.3 = 70%
The proof that this is all still true conditional on everyone being a 5th-circle wizard is left as an exercise for later... actually, Keltham doesn't think he's formally given them all the axioms they'd need for that, so, making up the required axioms is also part of the exercise.
"That's really a very good point. Ione, how come you are the only person present who ever says anything when I risk piling too much stuff on people before they've had an Owl's Wisdom or when I don't notice that nobody has any scheduled off-hours unless I happen to decide to snuggle Carissa and then she doesn't have any off-hours?"
Ione would like to note that she did not plan for that to happen right now, and she knows it's not a good look that it happened right now, but she nonetheless had those answers prepared because it was incredibly obvious that Keltham would eventually notice and ask, and dath ilan is closer to Nethysian than Asmodean in several ways that only she understands and people should let her explain it at some point.
"There's a potential military that's supposed to be very rapidly actualizable so as to not make it easy to take over Civilization by being the only faction with a military? I'm not sure what you mean by full-time job, there are industries where people work four hours every other day for normal wages and there's much smaller industries where everybody works ten hours a day with one day off every six days for much higher wages. Since the military isn't actually fighting anybody, the people who maintain it in potentia and a state of readiness, or who crew the serious weapons, are four-hour people. If an actual fight started they'd convert to fourteen hours a day until it was over. They do practice runs to make sure they can."
" - you know, even if you had a military you do everything differently enough maybe the intuition wouldn't transfer. So, at the Worldwound, the first thing you do with new recruits is seventy-hour weeks, of physical exercises and training and digging ditches and stuff, because the first thing you need to learn to serve in a military is how to do the thing that's been assigned to you, alongside other people you can similarly rely on to do the thing assigned to them. It's not about Good or Evil; the paladins have basically the same thing. Maybe in dath ilan you teach everyone enough Law, explicitly, that they have that expectation of common doing-the-job without having gone through a really long hard time of doing-the-job, but we don't, so that's how we build it.
And obviously in some situations you want your soldiers to exercise initiative and argue with their orders and point out problems they observe, but - 'that sounds hard' isn't generally a situation where you do? As long as you're sourcing your girls from ones who're cleared to take the Worldwound oath - and I think you probably should be sourcing from that, it's the only bar we've got for - for being at all ready to start on this path - then you're sourcing from people in training to spend the next decade of their lives in a brutal fight in the fucking tundra against an infinite horde of demons, and no, they're not going to complain that they've got more tasks assigned than hours in the day. ....I have no idea what Ione's life plans are but I have a weird suspicion that while she's cleared for the Worldwound she actually just wants to do Nethys things which involve no boot camp at all. ...that's what it's called, boot camp, I don't know how that'd translate."
"Yeah. Mental performance degrades as you work longer hours in a day, and some things rely on peak mental performance. There are, though they are rarer, four-hour industries that pay higher than the ten-hour ones, and the people in those industries don't try to do more than four hours of work per day because they'd start making mistakes."
"I've been stupid, here. Even if you want to work long hours for great profit - which, I mean, we're all young, and it's not like I've been keeping myself down to ten hours - I should still be trying to schedule the peak-dependent hardest mental work that takes a Fox's Cunning earlier in the day. I have been doing that with myself and learning wizard spells, which is more straightforward, during the evening, but I wasn't properly optimizing that for everyone else."
"And you still need any time to think about things on your own or just catch your breath."
"Yep, I agree with that. If the long hours weren't a deliberate move for dath ilan reasons then the hours should be considerably shorter, and there should be unscheduled downtime. But as a psychology fact you're using to predict the world -- it's not going to break down Good/Evil, it's going to break down Law/Chaos, or at least that's what I'd predict, because the Lawful countries take kids like us and raise them to close the hole in the planet. Which is the wrong set of habits for the situation we're now in. But the same set you'll find in Lastwall, when you go there, or Mendev."
Carissa is being completely truthful about this. Paladins are famously inclined to work themselves to death to the point where much of the labor of paladin orders is getting them to do that a little slower.
Ione has never left Cheliax and has assumed that this is something about Asmodeanism as opposed to something about Law-as-implemented-in-Golarion in a fit of heretical self-righteousness. Carissa shrugs. "I had a paladin tell me once that much of what paladin orders are for is that the kind of person who becomes a paladin will work themselves to death by 25 and you've got to make them eat and sleep and tend their injuries so they can at least die doing something important."
" - huh! Well, I haven't met anyone who wants to free Rovagug, but paladins definitely don't. They'd say, uh, that when you try to cause great harms to people for the greater good of people, then you end up just causing the harms and not getting the greater good, or that the world will be worth fighting for as long as there exist any innocents in it, or that murder is wrong, or just that that's not what Iomedae says they should do, depending which specific paladins you talked to." She is again not lying, though paladins generally don't talk to the Asmodeans directly; you can get it secondhand, or by joining a conversation out of uniform and not specifying where you're from.
"...I guess there's an obvious thought here that's - in dath ilan, you need a particular kind of mentally broken Good to think there's anything wrong with the world that requires 16-hour workdays from you? And in Golarion the world just is in that much in trouble, so the Good people who believe it is aren't systematically broken as they'd be in dath ilan? Still, not a conclusion to jump to, I should think about it later."
"Regardless of Good, Evil, Law, Chaos, Asmodeus, Nethys, militaries, paladins, researchers, and Worldwound oaths -"
"One observes that Ione thought in a sufficiently different way from everyone else to be the first person to point out to me when I was making a particular kind of mistake, twice in a row."
"This is what Civilization would call" cognitive diversity "diversity of thought, and is much of the point of having more than one kind of person working on a project."
"Though I'm speaking very blindly myself, the very generic caution that jumps into my own mind is that it can be a mistake to try to attribute something like that to very particular attributes of Nethys, Asmodeus, Neutrality, Lawful Evil. Sometimes what happens is that - Ione had one number for her threshold about pointing out a problem, and everybody else here had the same different number. Even if the numbers had been generated at random, that might still happen, so it can be a mistake to explain it too much by pointing to specifics. Ione is an 'outlier' in a certain dimension, more different from the rest of you than you are different from each other, in that dimension. To the extent everyone with Asmodeus or with Nethys mostly thinks about something the same way, somewhere the Nethys-Asmodeus axis matters, it's not a contest among twelve people to see who comes in first, it's a contest of whether Ione comes in first or somebody else does, if you see what I'm saying."
"I mention all this because it is another thing that seems like it might be different for Worldwound militaries and research projects."
It's a good opening for - "I've actually been thinking we should ask the site manager for more people, now that we know more. Notable mathematicians, more senior wizards, people who might have - additional diversity of thought, from several angles. And yeah, maybe we're overinterpreting, but it definitely seems like there's got to be some things we're missing because all of them just finished wizard school and I've spent my entire adult life in the tundra."
"Civilization has an awful lot of ideas and best practices about starting up efforts like this one, all of them attuned to a very different world. If I took their conventional wisdom straight, the part of this project that masters the way of Law should be trying to obtain an even younger INT 19, and 18s with high Wisdom - to be clear, I won't try to date anyone a year younger than myself, for other best-practice reasons. On conventional wisdom, you might have an old knowledgeable ex-mathematician sit in, but they'd have to be careful about who they talked to besides me, and you'd be pleasantly surprised if they started wielding Law themselves."
"The applied side of the project would conventionally be the part where you bring in metallurgists while you work on metallurgy, or more senior wizards if you work on magic, or have extremely well-read people on staff who act as a kind of living library - that's probably even more important, when you can't search inside the texts of the books you actually have."
"In both cases, it is a proverb that no quantity of weird people can compensate for a corporate culture that doesn't know to use weirdness effectively."
"Carissa, Ione, Asmodia, Meritxell, I probably want to talk with all of you about that later today, if you can go onward a bit further without getting quite as much rest as everybody else."
"Thank you, Gregoria. Positive reinforcement for somebody other than Ione speaking out."
"In general, yes, obviously. In respect to tomorrow, say, I'd mostly been assuming that we managed to get some time off in the wake of the Nidal attack... well, no, I'd gotten some time off myself, and didn't think about checking on whether anyone else had. Did you?"
"Noted. I'll chalk it up as a reason to check faster whether I can be romantic with more than one person at a time, now that I can be romantic with anyone at all. Even if the answer is 'no' you'll at least get some time off while I check."
"I apologize for having not previously set sensible schedules, and the solution to this, I do realize, is probably not to immediately call an all-hands meeting about it. My social reflexes assume people will spontaneously complain at me when I do things like this; I will try to recalibrate those reflexes toward asking people explicitly; this recalibration will be slow and imperfect. While anybody can complain at me while I'm learning, there should also be a single person who is commonly-known to be the one responsible for doing so. Ione, are you up for it?"
"You're learning."
"So I think what I should do right now is write down a problem set to think over for tomorrow under Fox's Cunning, later and after resting if you're mentally fatigued right now, so the staff's Fox's Cunnings for today don't go to waste due to my failure to frontload them. People who ended up in the Holding Cell are forbidden to discuss this problem set with each other but are free to talk to anyone not in the Holding Cell."
"And then I'll go off and give you all a break while I try to hang a first-circle wizard spell with just a Security helping me there."
"This problem set is a collection of Law-fragments of Probability, phrased in nonmathematical ways. The exercise is to see how far you can get, on how many, in translating them into proper Law."
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
2. Surprising claims require surprising evidence; unsurprising evidence suffices for unsurprising claims.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Carissa would find it really annoying how convinced Ione is that everyone will stop being Asmodean as soon as they think about it except Maillol seems to agree and you can't be annoyed with people for being right.
Acknowledged, she sends instead, and copies down the assignment.
Off Keltham goes to try again to hang a Silent Image! Given the way that other people can create nice-looking illusions without presumably anything like the work of visualizing every detail into their visual cortex, it probably works by creating something that will look right to the caster, and if that's true Keltham has tons of important visual memories that might be extractible that way.
Security is happy to help with a visual of his scaffold and advice as appreciated.
When he does get it, on something like the eighth try, it's oddly exhausting, like he's just been engaged in vigorous exercise for an hour instead of sitting here trying to make magic flow properly. But it hangs, and there it is, for him to cast if he'd like to.
"Sounds like I have the evening off, can we arrange the Nap Stack," Carissa asks Security.
"Yep, can do. You'll all have to sleep in the temple, it's the only concealed from Keltham space that's large enough with no walls that'd block the spell emanation."
"Fine. Great. Everyone, tonight you get six extra hours. Half of that's your personal time, don't spend it on homework because in alterCheliax you wouldn't have had it to spend on homework. The other half is for a briefing so everyone knows everything that's going on. ...there's a lot."
"Yep. So we're going to have to learn really fast and be cleverer than him. And we don't have to win forever, just long enough that we have the Law-fragments we need to rederive the rest, and the metallurgy and heredity-theory to make Cheliax rich and make the project look worthwhile while we set about the harder work of reinventing what we haven't got." She sounds substantially more confident than she feels. "Dis thinks we're on the right track."
"I'm still trying to grasp this at all, but I think we need to - be keeping track of the way everything must look to Keltham inside the world where everything is a Conspiracy, we need a list of things like Sevar going to the bathroom for a while right after Keltham mentioned the Conspiracy and that Yaisa and I were told to distract him. And Ione asking about the birds, where Keltham would then suspect the world is maybe much larger, and then I think maybe that exact part is actually a victory for us because - we have to make sure that the list never starts making too much sense to him? But we have to know what the list looks like because it's how Keltham is seeing things."
"Can we lean on that, put his attention there, send him mixed signals so that when that finally gets the answer we want, he won't have been paying attention to other things..."
"Actually I'm not sure it's the right move. I suspect Keltham's problem #7 is a key to the game between dath ilani, we're controlling what he sees and somehow that - won't be able to affect him, I think, because of whatever Law-fragment is in #7? If we're avoiding lies then I shouldn't work with anyone from the Holding Cell on it. But I request Ione, Pilar, Peranza, Gregoria, and Tonia all with me, and trying to figure out #7 as soon as possible so we can plan using it, and I request more Fox's Cunning and Owl's Wisdom while we work on it."
"Granted. And I'll see about your headband, though it'll probably require talking with the Grand High Priestess.
The Grand High Priestess - thinks there's a thing Keltham would understand at once, but which is dangerous to put to him, about what it is like for Asmodeus, to try to direct us mortals, about what kinds of actions that we take are easy for him to steer and which are hard. If you can figure out what she means by that she'll get you your headband, the only reason she doesn't give more people headbands I think is that there's something about mortals where being smarter doesn't reliably make us more useful and it's a Law-fragment, it's got to be."
"When I went to sell my soul, my devil conveyed that it was the will of Asmodeus, as translated down through Hell, that I not sell my soul this day, but be permitted to participate in the project and other matters as if I had, and that if I served well in this world I'd be raised high in it, and be among the most treasured possessions of Asmodeus in the next.
I tried again later to sell my soul for three Wishes and ten pounds of spellsilver and permanent Arcane Sight and Tongues and the devil said he'd have to ask his superiors, and then came back and said not yet, but was I willing to commit to selling at that price later.
So I don't know exactly what's up but I have a lot of license with Hell right now, and probably will right up until I fail. And I'm likelier to fail if I don't have all of you guys on board, so I will be doing my best to offer appropriately massive bribes for doing a good job here, which is one of the things we're going to talk about tonight. - also the outfits are because the devil also said I should be indulged as if I was the heiress to a county, though Abrogail says I can't actually have a county unless I succeed.
....we'll go over this all in more detail tonight."
She doesn't ask if Sevar knows the price on her own lost soul, in the markets of Dis.
Because Asmodia already knows. She can guess by now that a dath ilani would figure that out immediately, and therefore she knows the answer even though she hasn't finished thinking through why. That's why her first owner is dead. You can't just kill a contract devil and take their souls, obviously, they go by testaments. But with Asmodia's soul price running up past the Wish level - something happened to him, somebody challenged him over it, who knows what happens when prices get that high.
How strange.
How strange that she can still be this angry.
She's not planning to let them actually have and keep and use her soul. In reality, it's worthless, and somebody will pay a vast sum for her soul and gain nothing, you'd think that should be vengeance enough.
And yet, somehow, Asmodia is still seethingly angry on a level where keeping her face passive is taking everything she has.
"Not prices that high; there's no direct divine intervention over you all. But I suspect a lot more than you were paid, yes. If I were you I'd be mad about it; it's not how Keltham would've done it, he'd have split the gains from trade. But it's also - still very possible to leverage for your own benefit, because -
- do you think you'd be worth any more to Hell than an ordinary soul after being put through the ordinary course of Hell?"
Message to Sevar. Asmodia doesn't try to keep the seething hatred out of her whisper, if it's the sort of thing you can hear in a whisper.
I suggest that new members of the project should be informed of this, before they sell their souls, and in exchange for tipping them off, we should get half of the spellsilver they get, and that spellsilver should be distributed among project members who have already sold their souls.
Acknowledged. I can't make Hell fair but I can and will make you rich, Asmodia.
"I think that Hell wants us badly, but wants us precisely for qualities that it doesn't know how to inculcate, probably because of some god-agreements that restrict what greater devils can tell lesser ones. Therefore, as long as we are succeeding we have affordance and leverage to figure out how the formation of evil dath ilanis ought to work in Hell. This is one of the things we're going to discuss tonight. You've spent your whole lives not allowed to think very hard about Hell, and now we find ourselves practically assigned to change it. You may think about that, this afternoon and evening, but if you notice yourself running into a blind wall of panic then wait for tonight, where I have some ideas for how we can approach this."
"And I appreciate that about you, and it's possible that the outcome of the conversation with Ione is that I don't trust her enough, or that I think it'd be salutory for Keltham's next romantic interaction to be with someone who isn't faking anything. But if in alterCheliax Ione'd totally go after him then by default we do that. We have to adhere really closely to what we'd do in alterCheliax, if we're going to stand a chance."
"I'm not. We were originally recruited to do that for reasons having to do with the real Cheliax. We have to figure this out step by step, what happened in the alter-Cheliax instead, when they recruited us here, what instructions we got in alter-Cheliax, and then we need to write it down so everybody is living in the same alter-Cheliax about it, and we have to put up a huge wall somewhere with all of this written down, Keltham asked me earlier what kind of screening questions we'd gotten before coming here and I had to make something up and that needs to be on there - I needed to make up an answer quickly, and I bet Security didn't copy everyone else as soon as I said it, which means that Keltham could have come up to Paxti and asked her to answer immediately what the screening questions were like and he could have caught us right there before Security had time to fill her in. Don't you get it, we're playing this game against a real dath ilani! The only reason we're not already out is that Keltham isn't oriented enough to start playing for real."
"- ask the Grand High Priestess now about Asmodia's headband," says Carissa. "and yes, that's the answer I was about to give. AlterCheliax has to be complete, it has to have every detail, for the same reasons it had to be based on Taldor in the first place. Figure out your experience of every day up to this point and then figure out if you'd flirt with Keltham."
"So, thinking back, I now suspect I significantly fucked up the original things I said to Keltham, back when I was trying to make sure Lord Nethys didn't destroy my soul for not even trying to carry out His mission. I need to figure out what alterIone was thinking in alterCheliax when she said everything she did, and what that implies about whether alterIone wants to make another try at Keltham and when. A Security transcript of that conversation might be helpful."
"Is Asmodia in charge of this now?"
"I request transcripts of literally everything that's been said to Keltham or by him that I wasn't there for. I don't know if I'll be able to finish that before my Ring of Sustenance kicks in, but with your permission I plan on not taking any downtime today or tonight and telling Keltham I didn't feel like I needed downtime today if he asks... no, wait, would that be too much less likely in Ordinary... well, I'll figure it out."
"Pending headband, I'm going to try to work out answers unenhanced and then get enhanced at the end to review and correct everything. The Owl's Wisdom is important for this, not just the Fox's Cunning, I don't know why yet but it is. So the number of those available to me is the number of times per day I can figure out significant parts of the game or make complicated decisions in it."
"Unless otherwise instructed, I think my current priority is figuring out alterCheliax's seduction mission parameters before dinner. Sevar, you know what alterCheliax is supposed to be, and why, to make it acceptable to Keltham, that's not a part of this I understand, so I think you can't just go off and leave me to it. After that we can figure out what alterIone was thinking, I'm not looking forwards to that but accept it as my job. Then if alterIone is still making a run on Keltham Ione can talk to Sevar about that."
Message: Sevar, if we're also trying to not have Keltham end up believing in the patterns, I can't do any part of my job without your supervision until I know everything you do about them.
"I'll be here with you advising. The place we want alterCheliax to be is the best place in Golarion for Keltham to start developing Civilization, a place that's not very far along the road to Law but is trying and has already improved on a decade ago when we were Taldor. And also Keltham's specifically paranoid of the girls being ordered into his bed so Cheliax has made particular strides in not doing that, insofar as it's compatible with things people have already said."
Message: I'll brief you on tropes when we're alone.
Keltham is reasonably ecstatic about being a proper self-powered spellcaster instead of a divine surrogate spellcaster!
Keltham did not, of course, cast his Silent Image right away. Instead he deliberately arrives slightly late to dinner, hoping everyone will be there already and he won't have to await any stragglers. He doesn't want to delay between arriving and showing this off, nay, not even for food, this is going to be too awesome if it works.
Is everybody here in the dining hall yet? Are they, are they?
Betting is an encouraging sign too! Not literally all virtue begins from betting on things but yes quite a lot, as the proverb goes!
"Guess who's not just a laundry wizard anymore! Everyone get within a 20-foot radius of me, turn off all the lights if that helps, I'm going to show you a Silent Image of dath ilan for as long as I can maintain concentration. Unless of course this spell just completely fizzles, it's my first time."
Behold WIZARDRY.
Keltham isn't sure if he'll be able to do things like animation, or changing between entirely different images while he holds concentration.
So start out strong! How about if they're surrounded by full blackness, he won't try for stars yet, just the silent image of black walls around them to screen out light, and above them within the resulting darkness is -
Not all dath ilani, but more than half, know how to find their way back to dath ilan, if they get lost somewhere inside their galaxy with an extremely fast FTL spaceship, and they know how to find their way back to the Local Galaxy if they're stranded on a larger scale than that. It's just a cool thing to know how to do.
Keltham has seen enough Zoomout Videos for his illusion of it to be realistic, if the illusion makes it look realistic to him. He'll run it at a speed where it takes him about two minutes to get to the Local Visible Volume.
Otolmens does not recognize ANY of that and while PARTS of it have reasonable and consistent implied mechanics parts of it do NOT and how would a bunch of mortals get a view of things on THAT scale if they can't CATCH and BACK-INFER FROM incoming photons intercepted well above the atmosphere like She can?
Also that is extremely LARGE for a universe. It keeps ON zooming out. Otolmens is glad SHE is not the one who has to MAINTAIN all that.
...why is so much of it MISSING? That's not GOOD.
Wait. Is that supposed to be the COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND. The cosmic microwave background does NOT look like that. A universe would need to grow VERY ODDLY for a cosmic microwave background to end up looking like THAT.
This person comes from a VERY BROKEN UNIVERSE and its version of Otolmens is either DEAD or VERY SAD and none of this is making Otolmens any LESS WORRIED.
"Those slices are missing," Keltham says once the image stops at the end, the famous hourglass shape of what's visible, good he's able to maintain concentration while talking, "because they're obscured by the 'galaxy' around dath ilan. Where a 'galaxy' is a spiral structure of stars. The 'galaxy' that dath ilan is inside blocks our view out. We can't see through our 'galaxy' to the side directions, only out of the top and bottom, if we're trying to see something very very far away."
"So this is all of the universe that we can see using 'telescopes' in 'orbit', high enough up to be far far out of the atmosphere that makes distant stars hard to see from the ground."
As the view goes past the Fourth Planet, Keltham says, "This is the furthest that people from Civilization have ever traveled and survived." Certain others will be picked up eventually; the odds on saving their True Lives are not ninety-seven percent, but they're over fifty percent, and in a planet of a billion people, somebody will think that's an acceptable risk.
The return journey past the Moon shows, in just a tiny glimpse, a lit section in darkness. "The Moon colony."
When the view reaches dath ilan, it shows the sun-side, and the view dives in, as the video usually does, to the City of Default.
You can see this particular city starting well above the atmosphere, though you wouldn't see much detail yet from that height even if this illusion was finer than a Silent Image can be.
They're now closer to the ground, going slower. Things don't look far away, just small, and there's no sense of scale. There's an island of metal blocks in the center of the image, and then beyond that some kind of grid laid on the ground, but you can't see the fine details of what's inside the grid.
The image is zooming in on the metal blocks in the center.
Maybe those tiny reflective rectangles now visible on the huge metal blocks are glass windows? If that's true, these metal buildings are something like a hundred stories tall.
Well, this makes sense, because wizards build tall towers, and Nefreti Clepati specifically made a point of building hers slightly taller than the Black Dome, never mind how impossible that was, and probably a richer Civilization would be full of individual people having a tower-measuring contest, and the results would be very tall.
The image seems to be favoring one particular huge metal building.
It goes to one of the windows.
They're inside somebody's house.
In what seems like a very nice, very large, elegantly decorated office. It's lit by multiple brilliant sconces to something approaching the light of a sunny day.
Within, what's probably meant to be Keltham, seen from behind, is sitting in a chair - it's probably a chair? - and doing something weird with his fingers to something that isn't going to make much more sense if you've never seen a chording keyboard-mouse before.
In front of him is a... flat thingy?
Then the flat thingy shows dath ilan, seen from space, and starts zooming out.
"'Computer.' Connected to all the rest of Civilization, talk to somebody on the other side of the world, read most books in existence."
The view shifts away from Keltham in his chair, goes through a doorway, down a hallway with other open doorways. They get a glimpse of Keltham's library, his random treasures room, his bathroom larger than many townsfolk's entire homes, complete with vast bathtub, his bedroom - that's probably a bed? - one rather incomprehensible and slightly disturbing glimpse of a dath ilani cuddleroom - a room clearly meant for receiving guests.
"My house module. It's relatively large for somebody my age, by dath ilani standards, but I spent less money on my hobbies than most people. It took sixty-seven days per year out of my labor to rent the module, plus twenty-one days per year for the location in Default. I considered it worth it to not have to figure out how to fit all my stuff and activities into anywhere smaller -"
Keltham loses it.
Just the image, to be clear. He's not breaking down in tears. His voice only slightly cracked there.
Ione doesn't have any approved dialogue that matches what she's feeling right now, so she just quietly goes over to where Keltham is standing and sits down next to his feet. She'll get approval on some of her changed plans later.
No, there's one thing that alterIone absolutely says. If she doesn't say it, that's suspicious.
"When you leave Golarion, I want to go with you."
"It's not like digging ditches. It doesn't necessarily go faster as you work longer hours or take fewer days off, any more than you can save time in the long run by not eating." (Spoken by someone who's had all info about Rings of Sustenance carefully removed from his environment.)
"Speaking of which, I should get some food," and if they can tell he's also taking a moment to recover, good on their inferential capacities.
They get food themselves, and give him a minute.
Once he looks slightly recovered Carissa Messages him.
The girls took what you said earlier to mean they should all attempt to seduce you now. So if you don't like that, you should say so in words before they get to it. And if you do like it, well, good luck.
Thank you for the warning, Keltham mouths back.
It now seems like much less of a panic situation than when he first realized he was trapped with a horde of amorous women in the villa library.
Partially it's that he's not in like some totally other dimension, well, he still is, but not quite so recently; and partially it's that he now knows any of them at all; and that he understands better what he might owe in return (not something unspoken that he won't be able to repay); and that the thought of his having that much mating value is no longer so shocking and unconsidered; and maybe it's even that he feels somehow a little more comfortable in his own skin, now that he's ever hurt Carissa in bed.
He'll get his food, then, and sit down among the amorous horde of women bent on mating with him. Every man has to face them eventually. This is wisdom.
The Queen of Cheliax stands in a high tower of her palace, one that lets her gaze over the city of Egorian surrounding it; a new city, but a thriving one. The sun is setting but there will yet be people in the streets when it is gone, taverns and whorehouses open at night, open always. There are enough souls about the palace with Rings of Sustenance to promote Egorian to the ranks of cities that know no rest.
"I see it," says Abrogail Thrune, letting the exultation that she feels fill her voice unhindered by concealment, only moderately enhanced by Splendour. "I see Asmodeus's plan."
"The time for such cleverness is when you are about plots and projects that you originated yourself; or else perhaps when events are happening that our Lord could not have predicted, when His plans are clearly beginning to go astray."
"But tell the Most High of her Lord's brilliant plot, then, that you are brilliant enough to perceive yourself."
"Consider, Aspexia. It is said in many places and many books that Abadar, god of wealth and trade, and Asmodeus, god of slavery and tyranny, are on friendly terms. Why? Because Asmodeus is a god of compacts? He does not promote compacts well-suited to trade, nor the increase of wealth; when we force a Chelish soul to sign with a devil, they are not thus enriched as Abadar sees it. Because Asmodeus is Prince of Law? Let Abadar be on much friendlier terms with Iomedae, then, whose Laws would seem more suited to her peasants accumulating gold."
"Consider. Asmodeus would have us build schools and roads, He has sent us resources out of Hell for it. Of course His slaves become more valuable thereby, more useful; but consider, is that usually Asmodeus's way with His slaves? We are resources to Him, yes; but the worshippers of other gods are equally resources to them, and yet among the never-mortal gods only Abadar also troubles Himself to see so much to their industry."
"Consider. Evil can force its people to work by whip, until in mortal lands they drop, or in Hell forever. A few elites of Good may strive, but the people of Good are lazy. Hell is more industrious than Heaven, and Axis can scarcely be bothered to spare a droplet of attention from their amusements. Then why has our Lord not already won?"
"Because there were balances of power set in the beginning of things. The game of gods is one that can hardly have any winner, perhaps a few losers at best; it is akin to a game where players all have heaps of stones and take turns removing one stone from some other player's heap. Should any player get ahead, the other players combine more against them. If from the beginning of things Asmodeus had seemed more set to win, more alliances would have been made against Him and more compromises forced."
"Exactly. And one of those compromises is that the devils in Hell cannot be told what the outsiders of other Outer Planes are told by their own masters."
"It is a key compromise that partially negates the advantage of Hell's industriousness; and, if that compromise is itself compromised, in a world of shattered prophecy, Hell's road to victory then opens. Not only in Golarion, in all the realms Asmodeus contests, for devils are not limited to one realm as almost all mortals are."
"We didn't understand where His plan was going, before, because we had not seen Keltham, but seeing Keltham and hearing of his Civilization, it becomes clear. This is the common interest that Asmodeus has with Abadar, that in a world with enough schools and roads, there can be made devils who are not ignorant, who are instructed here in the Law that our Lord cannot tell them, working with industriousness and Lawful accord after death as in life, to transform petitioner after petitioner into higher devils. From Hell then shall pour out armies that no other realm can withstand."
"This is why our Lord slew Aroden, Aspexia. This is why it was worth it to Him to slay Aroden, when the cost was prophecy shattering; which, as you have observed to me, now advantages gods who were once-mortal in predicting the mortal realm. Asmodeus did not slay Aroden to save this one realm of Golarion from some little once-mortal's temporary dominion. Shattering prophecy in Golarion makes Hell's victory possible in all of the realms. For if prophecy still operated here, not only the gods of this realm but those of others might have combined their forces against Him, before it was too late."
"We are in the beginning of our Lord's endgame."
"Or - even if all your other cleverness is not just dancing upon air - in the beginning of one more moderate victory that will mildly improve our Lord's position, after taking into account how other gods then react and league themselves more against Him, and yet not trouble themselves to cancel His new advantages perfectly."
"Among the many common failures of mortals thinking they can see our Lord's plans is that they tend to imagine plans much larger, and with more flattering roles for themselves, than our Lord essays to move His pawns for on almost any real occasion."
"Perhaps, and yet also perhaps not. Consider the events around us; this is no ordinary occasion. Asmodeus is intervening over and over and over. Our Lord has finally moved against Zon-Kuthon, now sealed, and the other gods yielded to Him in the matter. Otolmens Herself makes bargains visibly to His favor. Asmodeus's triumph in Golarion is become predictable enough that Cayden Cailean has made common cause with Him, god of Good that Cayden Cailean may be in name, in exchange perhaps for more revels and fornication in the worlds of the new Lawful Evil, along with a little solicitousness towards children; turning openly against Iomedae along the way. Nethys is backing Project Lawful for the spread of knowledge, Irori for the perfecting of souls and Law. Abadar might prefer His cleric elsewhere, but He has not withdrawn His powers from Keltham."
"Hell's victory is at hand. We may even live to see it in Golarion."
"I am of course not certain of any such conjectures. But I can see the possibility, nor is anything about it surely wrong; and if those are perhaps not the exact details, something vast seems to be latent in the air. Some endgame is beginning, I think, and perhaps not only the endgame of Golarion alone, and our Lord does seem to be at the center and even, we may hope, in control. What would you of me, Aspexia, having seen this much possibility? Would you that I do nothing?"
"Hell is the destruction of hope. I presume you've read the most recent reports out of Project Lawful, regarding the asexual and her absent superpowers? To say nothing of the hidden cleric who could only be detected by one who would not reveal the truth to Keltham and Sevar? We must at this point regard 'tropes' as simple fact."
The Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus is feeling very tired right now. She did not need an entirely new class of pseudo-divine entity-forces to worry about, either, but she is not going to pretend they don't exist.
"I know that you have little taste for romance novels. Even amid the chaos of your ascension, I do recall hearing the report that you had all Chelish authors of them put to creative deaths, by their own lovers when possible. But in this case -"
"That is not precisely true. As a young girl I tried several such and found them wanting. After I ascended, yes, all of those authors met appropriately romantic fates of my own design. But I gave new instructions to new officers, after, and in my first years personally checked all synopses to pass final word on their approval."
"Today, I admit, I have less care for such matters and so less attention. But every year or two I deign to have some author of seemingly good repute brought before me to kneel in wait while I read their latest work, and the results are running half-and-half between authors enriched and authors incinerated. On the whole there has been a vast improvement since my reign's beginning, if I do say so myself, though much about the temper of literate Chelish women remains to be perfected."
"What of it?"
Aspexia Rugatonn thinks to herself that she really should monitor more closely every single thing that Abrogail Thrune II ever gets up to, it's just that the dark water in that well seems to have no end.
"Turn your over-cleverness to this, then. How is Hell's victory over all the realms to be made the appropriate ending of a romance novel? For Keltham did seem to think, and I would not assume him wrong, that the 'tropes' stood above all gods; and if those could be invoked about Hell's victory over all realms, I might begin to hope for it myself."
"Hmmm. I admit, I do not at all want to consider that question, but if I must, then I must."
"Corrupting Keltham would seem to be the obvious key. The story ends with him and his Carissa finally of one accord on the matter, watching Cheliax's victory and Asmodeus's ultimate victory unfold as if it were their own."
"Or - better yet, we should try to make Carissa rather than Keltham be the character of greater importance. Indeed, much of that work I have already done, without my even realizing what I was about. That is encouraging. And if Carissa is the protagonist that yields a thousand useful romantic possibilities, such as her breaking Keltham with the witness of what he has done and so finally remaking her man to her own satisfaction."
"Perhaps that is how a modern Chelish romance novel would end." What has Abrogail done. Aspexia needs to go read one of those novels in all haste. "How do we make Hell's victory be a fitting ending, the only fitting ending, of a dath ilani romance novel, one produced and approved by Keltham's Civilization?"
"Hmmm. Hm. That does seem more difficult."
"If Keltham had failed tragically enough, out of his own deeper fault - out of his selfishness, out of his sexuality, as dath ilan deems faults in him - then would a Lawful Good writer out of dath ilan compose an ending that dath ilan thought the most terrible possible, to show the consequence -"
"Why am I now considering requisitioning for myself a tragical romance novel written by the most intelligent Lawful Good author who has ever written one. How have I come to this, by what road have I come here? Somewhere we went astray along the way."
"A thought, then. Suppose we are to -"
"Wait! I believe, on reflection, that I should say no more. I should not speak any of my plans or thoughts on the subject aloud. I have not already lost Hell's victory thereby, I think, but I cannot speak out loud of how victory is to be achieved and especially not while speaking with the Most High in a tower overlooking my city's sunset."
Is that actually necessary.
As Aspexia cannot but admit the answer is that she doesn't know either, the Queen is, of course, right in her strategy.
"As you say. I did have one idea about that romantic tragedy, myself, but I suppose I can delay to have that discussion in a plainer chamber."
Just as planned.
Cayden Cailean doesn't know why Nethys insisted on Cayden thinking that to Himself, if this meeting went approximately according to any of Scenarios 1-4 for it. Cayden Cailean does not see how a private thought would have any further effect. And it did not, in fact, go precisely as planned. But it is not worth questioning Nethys about such a matter, else He starts going on about orthogonal angles and things that make you more real when they look at you and 'anthropics'.
Asmodia has ever needed to flirt before, she has needed to smile, she has needed to gasp in false pleasure. She has never received the slightest reward in return, nothing good has ever happened to her as a result, only a diminution of punishment.
Now here she is, smiling at Keltham, coming on to him far more blatantly than most of the other girls. And the other girls haven't actually been briefed on Asmodia's situation yet, there wasn't enough time before dinner. So their almost entirely masked expressions of confusion are priceless, each time she touches Keltham's hand and suggests in a low sultry voice that they go off to bed together, and lie there fully clothed reading books, and maybe in a year or two she'll find him attractive.
She's flirting with a man who can't have her tonight, who'll never have her at all, who knows he can't have her, who is smiling back at her because he doesn't know he can also never have her heart, or that she'll Teleport out of his life at the first possible moment; and she was promoted in her top-secret top-priority project, to effectively second-in-command almost, and placed in charge of an incredibly challenging and exciting game of deceiving him.
Her life is just like a romance novel, now.
Except that even if Asmodia fucks up she won't get tortured, and even if she fucks up completely she can suicide before getting tortured to death and hope that somebody is nice to her again within 100 years. Those aren't the way it would work in a romance novel at all, but both of those facts just make her life unambiguously better even if it wouldn't work as fiction.
Asmodia is right now having the time of her unfucking life, her defucked and unfuckable life. Keltham's Civilization has it exactly right about the message that it thinks proper to tell asexuals. Asmodia would change nothing about this situation if she could.
"I feel like you're not having enough fun with this," says Yaisa. "If it were me with a dozen boys from another world desperately fighting for my attention I would say 'kiss my feet, slaves' and see who did it fastest."
"Not everyone shares your kinks, Yaisa. Maybe Keltham enjoys watching people come up with excessively complicated plans by which to try to win him, so he can judge whose plan is the cleverest."
"I mean, you can also say, 'kiss my feet and then go bring me back a real live kangaroo, first one back wins, slaves', and he's not even doing that."
Apparently Keltham has never had a proper chance to be a teenage boy before.
He banters back as fast as he can think of witty replies, and if he can't, he only needs to wait another two seconds and somebody will deliver him a different prompt.
If he had to declare a winner on the basis of clever lines, it'd have to be Asmodia; but that's not all this contest is about, and Keltham does not quite feel like clothed bookreading tonight.
"I suppose I could make you all compete to solve math problems for it," Keltham says, grinning about as widely as he ever has in his life. "I mean, it's possible some of you might have other capabilities too, but that's the main capability I've seen so far from you all. Am I missing anything I'd find interesting?"
He... doesn't think he's going to be no longer okay for casual sex, as a result of falling in something with Carissa? He's currently looking forwards to selecting one of Ione, Meritxell, Peranza, or Tonia to schedule a nighttime rendezvous, at the end of all this; and Keltham expects that to go basically well, unless he stumbles over some weird new aspect of his own sexuality.
(Yaisa is the one to whom he feels most sexually attracted, in fact; but that would be a little um pending discussion with Carissa et. al. of what happens to, among other candidates, Yaisa.)
(He'll ask what a 'slave' is later, if he remembers; from context it's obviously something like 'masochist' or 'submissive'.)
"You make us solve math problems all day," Yaisa says. "The romantic contest should be of a different nature. Or I suppose it could be something like strip-solving-math-problems. I'll lose, and Asmodia will win, but apparently that suits us both."
"You should really tell the site manager that our uniforms aren't sexy enough so they budget us new clothes," Tonia says.
"The site manager will say, 'ah, but perhaps the clothes will be Kuthite spies,'" says Meritxell, "and propose instead that we all go around naked."
"Well, you know, he has a point, have you checked if your clothes are Kuthite spies?"
"- clarification, clothes cannot actually be spies," says Meritxell helpfully to Keltham. And to Yaisa, "why, I check every morning, before I prepare spells. Don't you?"
They've got something like a proper meeting / breakout room, now, for this conversation. Well, not by Civilized standards, obviously, but better than just grabbing a random not-especially-so-purposed room in an archduke's villa.
...Keltham probably owes that guy a favor at some point.
Anyways. It's pretty clear at this point that competence at learning Law has stratified into Carissa-Asmodia-Meritxell-Ione, Pilar-Gregoria-Peranza-Tonia, and Jacme-Pela-Paxti-Yaisa. The original contract for having the girls come in was for one week, as Keltham understands it.
So, um. Keltham isn't sure what's... expected, about Jacme-Pela-Paxti-Yaisa. On his model of things, the bottom third there will noticeably slow down further lecture learning, and probably not produce enough work output to make up for it. And if there's any ability to add additional people, they're opportunity-costly, they'd take up a limited number of student slots...
Okay, now that he's saying this out loud it's pretty obvious what the decision has to be, even though Keltham really doesn't like it. (And feels even worse about how he was just flirting with them while managing not to think through this line of thought to its clear conclusion, though Keltham doesn't say any of that out loud.)
How does Cheliax handle this situation? In Civilization in non-top-secret projects, you just let people go work on something they'll be better at. In Civilization's top-secret projects, everybody who goes through an elaborate screening process to receive classified info has been predicted by prediction market to work out. In either case, you had an explicit understanding with them before they came in about under what circumstances they'd go, but Keltham is kinda guessing that the reason this explicit understanding has not been mentioned to him is that it does not in fact exist.
"On a normal military secret project, you can get reassigned, if the project's not a good fit for you and you've maintained the level of top secret clearance you needed for it in the first place. If you accidentally wandered into something with clearance wildly above yours, and then aren't a good fit - honestly, the usual is probably that you go to Hell, at least until you no longer know anything top secret - like, in a year or two it'll likely be fine to let them go back to their lives. But - if you're going to be reluctant to drop unpromising students from the project for that reason, I don't see an issue with doing something else?"
"I've actually got no idea how much of a hardship it would be considered to be to spend a couple of years in Hell, and I definitely wouldn't be asking that of somebody unless that part had been explicitly explained in advance. Given how long it took between when I got here and there were girls in the library, there must have been either a very standard contract or a very improvised one - does anybody have a copy on hand?"
As of slightly over an hour ago, yes, this obviously Ordinary-existent piece of physical evidence that Keltham could have demanded at any time in the past six days now exists; and Sevar thought through this section in advance.
"I brought mine," Asmodia says, and hands hers over. She doesn't allow the slightest trace of triumph to show on her face, even though, in her own opinion, this wouldn't have gotten done in time without her helping to prompt it. "I think you probably want section 5 point... 3?"
This contract does permit, in section 5.4.1, that if the contractee is exposed to sufficiently secret information and better options don't exist for hiding it, the Chelish government can demand that somebody go to Hell and stay there for up to 5 years as required. The 5 is written into a line for the exact number.
He finds it soon enough.
"I'm not saying it's not logical, or even that it's not sensible, but this is still weirding me out a bit. Do people come back totally fine from that, staying in Hell that long doesn't make them less suited to Golarion? There's no probabilities, what did they think the probability of this being invoked was, when they signed the contract..."
"This is frankly a much more extreme decision than I thought we'd be facing when we considered startup composition. I'm not sure I feel okay making it."
"If you'd rather the girls get put in a different wing of the fortress being taught something tricky - ring forging - by a senior wizard, there so you can visit them and sleep with Yaisa occasionally, I don't think anyone would object. If that - lowers the barrier to you removing people from the project - it seems obviously worth it. You're allowed to be Evil and just do whatever is most comfortable for you."
"Thank you for reminding me of that, it is not actually something you hear in Civilization very often."
"I'd like them to have that choice, yeah. Ideally some other choices too, even if it means calling in favors from Cheliax. It is not something I'd decide one way or the other for them." He notes that feeling of moral dissonance that he's had before, when Carissa talked about selling tickets to watch rats devouring each other. "And unless Yaisa has a very specific sexuality that somebody needs to inform me about if so, she isn't to be told that her ability to stay here is contingent on her fucking me, nor will it, in fact, be so."
Asmodia wishes again that she had some way of knowing if the Gardens of Erecura would also receive Paxti, if Paxti could somehow be advised that the Hell option is her best bet... how would she even communicate that, though, or have Paxti follow through, in a way that wouldn't set off twenty kinds of whatthefuck nearby?
Was that thought a stupid one? No, if someone somewhere cared about Asmodia, she's allowed to give a fuck about Paxti. Or the other three, too, though that thought seems stranger as yet.
"Sure, that seems reasonable. You have a lot of latitude; give them some choices. If the choices are good it'll also probably help with other students not being scared of failing out of the project, which I bet you'll tell me is useful for learning dath ilanism. And no, I don't think you should keep Yaisa here conditionally, I just think she's obviously into you. ...and I may have, at risk of becoming a too-Good person with a too big headband, asked the High Priestess if she happened to know which other girls like getting hurt, because ...."
"...because I feel like it's my fault, for having trouble relaxing, that you feel like - maybe that's a Conspiracy, that maybe no one anywhere actually likes being hurt, and if you have a nice uncomplicated time with someone who you can tell is loving it then you'll. Uh. Move your probabilities specifically on the question of whether we made up masochists. But I have been warned against being a too-Good person with a too-big headband so I'll cut it out."
"Carissa, I deeply appreciate your efforts in this regard, may follow up on this later, and would right now like to follow the dath ilani best practice of just completely not talking about this in the context of who stays employed by the project. As in, we don't talk about this at all, until after everything has been settled, and this meeting has been adjourned, without that having ever been a consideration."
"If you think that's an absolutely terrible way to approach this issue, I'm open to having an extended meta-level digression about whether I'm being overly Good here or just Lawful, though I'd want to free Ione, Asmodia, or Meritxell to sit that one out if they wanted."
"Nope I think that's a good plan, let's make project decisions entirely off one of who is good for the project or what is good for your own personal ability to make project decisions without feeling guilty. Which, it sounds like, is coming up with a bunch of appealing options for the girls and letting them pick one, and surveying the remaining girls to make sure that the options sound appealing enough that they're not scared of being fired?"
"Yeah. I would have expected a compensation clause in the original contract, actually, if people were going in for a week that carried with it a significant chance of some very large consequence for them of spending the next 5 years in top secret info lockdown, for which they wouldn't otherwise be paid an excess wage... is that already in here?"
The cleric of Abadar attempts to flip through the Asmodean-written contract looking to see if a clause like that already exists. Does it?
Right. Their actual alternative wasn't being computer programmers, it was that they were otherwise heading to the Worldwound. Most top-secret sequestration conditions are probably nicer than that, aren't they, so long as living conditions go.
It is sometimes hard to remember how Golarion works, and casting an illusion of Civilization drawn from his own mind didn't help with his sense of reality.
He hasn't actually said tsi-imbi(*) at any point, now that he thinks of it. Kind of pointless now. Still, universalizable rules. He'll do it next time he's alone.
(*) Said by dath ilani when they think 'this seems impossible, I might be insane', and the people around them should get them to a psychiatric institution if they don't seem to be correctly checksumming immediate reality. An emergency signal; never said as a joke.
"All right. Then I think we take that as our baseline option to potentially improve upon later, though I'll want to check what the actual options being offered to them are and whether I feel a need, or just want, I guess, to call in further favor from Cheliax to improve them."
Wow does that still feel awful. Well, everyone warns about that, and everyone is apparently right, go figure.
"That leaves the question of what kind of contracts we see for the eight who stay. In dath ilan, people in this kind of position would usually be offered some of their compensation in the form of an expected share of future profits, and this is something that we have to negotiate with actual Cheliax at some point, but at least in dath ilan, that agreement would be produced by us collectively negotiating with Cheliax, especially you four because you're the ones who seem relatively irreplaceable."
"Actually, now that I think about it, Pilar is not exactly all that replaceable? She should arguably have something like a tier-one-and-half status, based on a suspicion of greater-than-first-apparent impacts of divine interventions; a status that gets promoted to tier one if Pilar turns out to be way more important than just saving my temporary life once and having snacks."
"Anyways, I'm still waiting on Cheliax to offer me a first-run contractual relationship between Project Lawful's employees and Cheliax, where I'm not quite sure why they don't have one, yet. Except that my guess is that they want more than a week worth of data to make up their minds, and the trouble there is that I don't feel it's particularly prudent to, like, work on metallurgy or roadbuilding for a month without any contract. We could potentially have a crude contract for the first research that gets done, with intent to renegotiate it after seeing how early results play out, but I do want any contract. And -"
"What I'm getting at here is that I can successfully sit down in a room with you and figure out what you think Project Lawful wants from Cheliax, or what you want, which is more than I've been successfully able to do with Cheliax itself. Except for one person who didn't seem empowered to do binding negotiations, and who I think isn't back from Hell yet after the Nidal assault."
"Well, I have even less authority than that, but we can at least try something, and send someone down to the site manager's office in case there's a contract ready and waiting for you." There is. She very firmly told the people writing it not to get caught doing anything tricky but she half expects Keltham to object even to a bunch of things that weren't intentional tricks. "And personally I'm delighted about some share of future project revenues, once we all have headbands which aren't even bottlenecked on money, money later's about as good as money now for me...." She wants to not sound too rehearsed, because in alterCheliax she wouldn't have an inbuilt instinct that contracts will destroy you if you don't have a specific plan for avoiding that.
Don't worry, Cheliax. Keltham is a programmer.*
He may not yet have an intuition for everybody being out to burn him all of the time, but he sure does have an intuition for asking "Well, what if this measurement here was broken and returned negative a trillion gold pieces?" If you try to make sure you can't be screwed over in a contract by malicious gods, you'll catch a lot of human malice along the way.
(*) A dath ilani concept essentially untranslatable to Taldane in its connotations and origins; the two-syllable word 'programmer' has an expanded six-syllable form that reads creator-of-raw-causality, where 'creator' in turn implies 'one who accepts responsibility for all consequences of creation whether intended or not' (the same word that appears in expanded 'parent' as 'creator-of-sapient-life') and 'raw-causality' means 'raw math, close to the bare bones of reality'. The nearest Taldane translation is in fact 'creator-god' if creator-gods worked to a much smaller scale.
Keltham shall endeavor to send to see if a proposed contract has conveniently arrived, then. He sort of assumed he'd be told if it had, but then, that was sort of a stupid assumption.
While they wait for that, he'll take a quick run at explaining equity, options, vesting, fixed and event-dependent components of compensation, the interest of individual employees in reducing variance on core income even at some cost in expected money because of their logarithmic utility functions over money, the standard internally-expected-return-on-marginal-capital formula that determines where a company places its standing limit buy and sell orders for its own stock into the general market at any given time, and other basics that shouldn't be too hard for the Project's better mathematicians, right.
...this is not 'complicated'. Those are the straightforward automatic consequences of the structure of corporations with divisible financialized ownership of uncertain future incomes, made out of their internal contractual relationships with employees who have standardly human-shaped incentives.
What does Cheliax do instead.
While he does that, some people bring the proposed contract! It's still a draft with several peoples' comments written on it, but maybe it'll still be useful to him.
(It being a draft is one of several ways Cheliax is protecting itself against Keltham finding the contract suspicious.)
The contract proposes a Kelthamishly fair division of the gains from trade that the Crown captures through its normal mechanisms of taxation, which are that taxes are collected by local governance and the bulk passed on to higher levels of governance. It proposes measuring this a couple of different ways and using the middle measurement, and referring disputes to Hell for arbitration. It can be paid out in Cheliax's fiat currency, backed by Hell, or in gold if they have enough gold. It predicts that Cheliax would learn all these things a year later, if Keltham did this work elsewhere, and does not want Cheliax worse off for being the place where Keltham did it, so the fair division (in the contract's reckoning) decreases substantially over time.
...they are probably not trying to cheat him, because if so they would have tried to carefully argue him around to this viewpoint before just dumping it on him.
Okay, so, first of all, this seems to be based on a model where, it's implied, no country can protect intellectual property, like at all, and countries just rip each other off about it without any attempt to pay patentgratuities on anything. And that there's no such meaningful thing as a trade secret, human capital, it being hard for other corporations to just completely copy everything you do -
So maybe Keltham is just misunderstanding how things work around here, but, what if they used other countries' observed abilities to copy Cheliax while this starts happening, as a proxy for Cheliax's counterfactual abilities to copy other countries, maybe very moderately discounted if somebody feels strongly about Cheliax actually being better at copying or at keeping trade secrets and that mattering to fairness? There's an obvious-seeming formula which uses their excess GDP growth to discount Cheliax's excess GDP growth, modulo above-trend exports of Cheliax to those countries under an assumption that the export prices capture around half the gains from trade i.e. those countries getting richer by trading with Cheliax... actually, no, that shouldn't be discounted because Cheliax would experience similar gains if Keltham set up elsewhere, never mind.
Point being, Keltham is maybe just wrong here, but also suspects that Cheliax underestimates the degree to which Cheliax will become richer than other countries if those other countries try to get away with ripping off the Project and paying nothing on the intellectual property they try to steal. This part can potentially be settled by writing some observable proxies into the contract rather than arguing it out in advance, at the expense of contract complexity.
The tax system is confusing and Keltham is simply failing to parse it. Cheliax is actually made up of a bunch of other countries with their own separate economies and tax systems?
How does a world invent fiat currency before it invents stock markets, that's insane. Who would try to hold that much currency, currency is not an investment.
Nobody has attached any reasonable bounds on any of the variables referenced in this contract-code, there's no mention that taxes from some subregion can't be returned as negative a trillion gold pieces and cause the Project to owe Cheliax five entire copies of Golarion, there's no minimum gold amount that Cheliax definitely thinks it has available in the way of gold...
"So I don't know tons of history, but, stylized, you've got a bunch of farmers, and they get periodically raided by bandits and wild animals. So whichever farmer is the best at fighting bandits and wild animals collects protection money from all the others, and gets even better at fighting bandits and wild animals, and eventually they own a bunch of land on which other people work, and they protect that land from bandits and wild animals, and they're much richer than the people who work the land. Now, say there's a dragon. They can't handle a dragon! Or say that the neighboring person of similar standing tries to invade and kill them and take their stuff. They'd really like to have alliances with other landowner-defenders. Some of those alliances will be on equal terms - I defend you, you defend me - and some will be on terms of - you swear to commit your forces where I command it, when I command it, and in exchange I'll extend my protection to you. And in most places, you build up layers of this. A small landowner-defender is a Baron, and a Count is a landowner-defender who has Barons pledged to him, and a Duke is a landowner-defender that has Counts pledged to him, and the Archduke of Sirmium whose summer villa we borrowed is one of the Dukes who duchy is particularly big and powerful and important, and Dukes pledge to the Queen.
And the way taxation happens is the barons get the grain from the farmers who work the land and they pass some on up."
"I wouldn't say it to the face of any people who might lose all their stuff in the reorganization, and it has the same terrible track record when tried as overthrowing the government does, but none of us are going to feel vaguely terrified if you declare that actually there's some clever way to just see the Queen's will done everywhere."
Keltham knows that he explained this part already, because Keltham was there, the point of reorganizing is not that people lose their stuff, you're supposed to trade around the jellychips in a way that leaves everybody better off. This system sounds ludicrously inefficient and if it was reorganized there would be gains to the whole system that could then be distributed.
Is it possibly the case that nobody in Golarion ever suggests anything like this?
".....I don't know that anyone has suggested specifically a reorganization that leaves all current nobles better off, because if you're not making the world ludicrously wealthier it'd be really really hard to offer them a deal anywhere near as good as the one they have now."
"That's - got literally nothing to do, with how well off they are now, if the system is a million gold pieces wealthier than it was in total before, you've got a million gold pieces to pay people above what they previously had, what prevents a reorganization like that are friction costs where moving things around is very expensive -"
"But we're not actually going to fix it. Fine. How does the Project deal with this monstrosity? Are the dukes not going to respect the intellectual property of Cheliax, are the counts not going to respect the intellectual property of dukes, am I actually dealing with only a tiny fraction of twenty million people constituting only the top ranks of Governance who have any unity with which to negotiate with me? I guess if the people who can negotiate with me are the most powerful spellcasters and have most of the money, that still counts for something, for certain terms and definitions of something."
"But there's no centralized measurements of how well the whole economy is doing, it sounds like. Cheliax literally does not know its GDP and has no way of finding out. All it has are the amount of taxes it collects from the subhierarchy, and whatever verification structures must exist in order to verify how much the taxes - does the system have any way of knowing whether a Baron is just lying about how much tax they extracted from the people underneath, or is it all trust-based? Trust-based doesn't sound like it should work in Golarion, and wouldn't even be tried in Civilization."
"And all of this entire system is not based on fair division of mutual gains from moving to coordinated arrangements that make everyone better off; it is at least partially enforced at every level by threats that wouldn't counterfactually be made except for the threatened agent's predicted tendency to give in to threats; meaning everybody at every level of the structure has various reasons not to like the current arrangement and to find it easy to imagine how they could do better; but they're terrible at coordinating and have high friction costs and expected destructive losses from trying to change anything because lots of the destructive threats would start firing; to the point where it's proverbial that everybody overestimates the gains and underestimates the losses from trying to change anything and people shouldn't even talk about trying that."
"I'm not sure the thing you're saying about threats is true?" says Meritxell. "So, say I'm a count. And I refuse to pay my taxes. The Duke I'm supposed to pay them to would rather have a Count who does pay taxes, so he'll kill me and replace me. He's not doing that to threaten me, he's doing it because he wants a count who pays taxes. To the extent that I refuse to respond to threats made only to keep me in line, like a god, I should still pay my taxes, because the killing and replacing me isn't done to keep me in line, it's done to have a taxpaying subordinate."
"I agree that this is a correct view from the perspective of a single Count imagining their own decisions to be uncorrelated with any other Counts' decisions; with all of the other Counts, of course, thinking exactly the same thing for exactly the same reasons and so arriving at exactly the same decision."
"I had been questioning whether or not to say that out loud. But yes, that is among the things I was thinking. In particular, you'd have to master the art of reorganizing the system and distributing the gains in such a way as to make everyone better off, yes, including the people who are currently doing pretty well, before the system actually just explodes."
"I predict that actually we can't get 90% of Cheliax Lawful in the dath ilani sense, likely can't even get 10% to be, and therefore there is a very large supply of Counts who will pay their taxes for dukes to replace all the dath ilani with, and therefore all the dath ilani are stuck. But noted."
"Nethys is also said to be the god of explosions."
If somebody actually got Ione a real book on Nethysian theology and swore to her that it was untampered, Ione could make sure that she was not committing heresy that would potentially get her soul destroyed by Nethys each time she tries to help prevent something in Cheliax from metaphorically exploding. This would help her cooperate with Cheliax.
(As Ione has not yet delved very far into Probability, it will not occur to her nor to any listening Security that failure to deliver such a book is then also updatable evidence.)
"It's a short-term view. Can't get 10% of Cheliax that Lawful in five years? Sure. Can't get Cheliax that Lawful when the average innate intelligence has risen to 14 and spellsilver mining has been scaled to mass-produce +6 headbands? Kind of a different story. Civilization does not run on being like this."
"Unless you still think I'm wrong about that, Carissa?"
"Remind me to ask later if I'm on an eventual time limit for evacuating this universe, my last universe had similar issues. Though that was more an issue of freezing over some very large number of years later, and the Keepers basically told everyone not to worry about it for now."
"Anyways. Let me think on what to do about Cheliax not being able to measure its own GDP."
It would be nice to conclude they're just lying in order to cheat him out of a fair share of the gains.
But of course, if they were going to do that, they could just not pay him after signing the contract, instead of presenting him with an overtly weird contract he might refuse to sign. Sure, he could ask them to swear an oath about it, but in most of that possible-world's probability-density, the story about oaths being Abaddon-enforced is fake anyways.
...Keltham doesn't know what to do here.
Well, no, he knows this trope, it means he is in a Trade With Aliens story after all. The Aliens have a legible unit of account matching their medium of exchange which readily translates into unskilled-labor-hours, the Aliens can negotiate market prices on things to balance supply and demand, but the Aliens have no idea how large their economy is and can't measure its growth trend, let alone detect the growth going above-trend, so how do you capture a fair share of the gains from trading knowledge to them.
"It sounds," Keltham says aloud, "like the central problem of this contract is not dividing the gains but measuring them. Out of dath ilan there are proverbs about how, once you have identified the important part of the problem, you should make sure to stop, step back, and deliberately focus on solving that part of the problem."
"I suspect that what I have to do is sit down with Governance experts on the local economy and its measurement and hash out the part of this contract that is actually the critical part and actually important. And before then I should design an interim contract intended to be replaced by a future one, so that we could potentially get started on roads or metallurgy or automatic clothmaking."
"Right, so, I think the things that need to happen are... finally actually talk to the site manager so I can get a concept of the site budget and get some fraction of that budget available to me as a budget to do things like pay the Project's employees, and I can't enforceably offer them real equity or options until Cheliax can recognize the existence of Golarion's first real corporate structures... well, I could give them shares of future income that they're allowed to resell and ignore all concepts of corporate governance for now."
"I know what Civilization thinks is a reasonable equity distribution and vesting schedule in a case where you have one supergenius plus a bunch of more replaceable cofounders and employees, and it does not exactly sound like anybody knows enough to contradict me about that."
"I propose that everyone around the table except me separately, and without checking with each other, but with attribution, write down what they think would be a fair nonvolatile portion of wages for each of the eight Project members to be retained, including themselves, but not me. I'd try it myself except for the part where I just have no idea at all what anybody gets paid around Golarion."
Carissa writes down that as a fourth circle wizard and a much better than average arms and armor enchanter she could make 100gp a week in salary selling scries and doing magic item commissions, while the second and third circle wizards would be making more like 10gp/week. She's not sure if this matters for what a fair wage is, but it seems weird if her value add here is smaller than her value add making keen speed longswords.
She thinks that if the project budget is large enough that 100gp/week/researcher is in budget, then it is probably still a significant underestimate of their value created and is enough money for them to get whatever they want as a practical matter. If the project budget is smaller it should probably be 10gp/week but this would definitely be the researchers or at least Carissa accepting much less than she could make elsewhere for the potential for larger future gains.
Well, he's got enough info here to go see whether anything can be accomplished by talking to the site manager. Did Carissa want to be with him for that? It's not obvious that Ione/Asmodia/Meritxell need to stick around for that, they are free to depart if they so will.
(It's not clear that, besides Asmodia having her contract on hand, those three really needed to be here either. This whole conversation didn't end up going the way it would in Civilization, what with, say, equity not really existing. But Keltham would've felt odd if the tier-1 first-employee-semifounders hadn't been called in by the tier-0 superfounder for at least this much consultation.)
Site Manager Ferrer Maillol is a grandfather-aged man who looks visibly harried. Keltham and Carissa are ushered in past his outer office right away, but even Keltham has to wait a moment while Maillol finishes talking to somebody and hands them a signed piece of paper that they then rush off with.
He nonetheless manages something like a half-grin as he rises from behind his desk to give Keltham a brief bow before reseating himself.
"Keltham," he says, his voice warm if tired. "I'll be frank, I expected you to storm into this office a lot earlier, and I'm glad it could wait this long. If you think the situation you hear about now is a horrible chaotic mess, it was worse yesterday and only slightly better just before the Nidal attack."
Carissa is aware that Ferrar Maillol, if he's noticed that she likes him quite a lot, would think this contemptible, but she does. He has such good Bluff of a very different flavor from everyone else she interacts with regularly. And he was at the Worldwound like a sensible person, not in Egorian which she increasingly suspects is poisonous to sense.
"First couple of days, I was more or less hiding from you, yes. There was a vast amount of chaos to order, after this project had to be established completely from scratch at Asmodeus's will with no existing command hierarchy responsible for originating it. We had several different - factions in Governance, I suppose you could term them - trying to grab control of what they saw as a potential source of future influence and funding. It took direct intervention from both the Queen and the Grand High Priestess to make that even mostly not happen. I wasn't just busy, I was entirely unsure of what sort of person you were and what would happen if you did storm into my office, ask strange questions, develop some very alien picture of what was going on, and start trying to make your own moves or demands inside a frankly volatile situation."
"Then, of course, Nidal attacked, and three-quarters of the government went off to fight."
"I'm still not caught up on transcripts and reports and I'm not sure I ever will be, at this rate. But it sounds like you've had some long conversations about Golarion, and what I'm saying now should not be so absolutely strange to you as it would have been on day one. Dare I so hope?"
"Again, keeping it frank, my reaction is that you're considerably underestimating how well I would have taken on day one to being told that I did not understand what was really going on, and that it would have been a bad idea for me to interfere in something. But I will concede that this, itself, was something you had no way of knowing, if your" prior "mental image before the evidence was something more like a random Intelligence 18 person from Golarion."
"Maybe a year later when you're much more used to things, we'll get together on the Project anniversary and laugh about what might've happened if Keltham had come into this office on day one, and heard what was going on, and decided that it was very reasonable to ask to speak himself with some of those ambitious bureaucrats that the Queen and Grand High Priestess were trying to gently shoo away. Or perhaps we'll have a laugh about how they couldn't possibly have managed to confuse you, even then."
"I think it's more that you're underestimating the degree to which, if you'd told me I was about to cause a disaster, and Carissa nodded along and said yes that sure sounded like a disaster to her too, I would have exercised my vast capacities of inaction and just not done that thing. Civilization is made out of both negative and positive spaces, its shape is as much what it doesn't do as what it does. But, fine, you had no way of knowing."
"I admit that even on day six - letting my Worldwound arrival in the evening be day zero - I am still dismayed to hear about the actual hierarchical structure of Chelish mini-governments, as I did only a few moments ago. And more dismayed to hear now, that the job of a project manager in Golarion includes managing not just the people under the project, but the people above the project having fights about it."
"Not more than momentarily in any healthy organization. It would require that something go very visibly wrong, in a way that would cause the one person responsible for having that not happen to notice using their organizational eyes, and they'd come in and rearrange things using their organizational hands."
"So I've been at this a while, which you might guess, they wouldn't have put somebody inexperienced on this, divine vision or not. I've been running projects, smaller ones admittedly, since seventeen years before our Queen took power in Asmodeus's name fifteen years ago."
"If someday you worry that you're feeling too cheerful, or just that it's way too easy for you to fall asleep at night, come into my office and I'll tell you about what project management was like in Cheliax before."
"Oh, so you are the priest from the Worldwound, then, the one I originally asked to pray to Asmodeus. I was wondering if that was real or if I just hadn't seen any other grandfather-'gendertroped' people since then and couldn't tell the difference."
"Clerics of Asmodeus were project managers even before Asmodeus and the current Queen took over?"
"I am frankly, not totally happy with things having gone the way they did. I suspect I'll estimate later that there are processes I could've set in motion a few days earlier if you'd risked a conversation, as would in fact have been safe. But, you didn't know, so fine."
"So. Basic questions. Who's your own manager and what's their role in Chelish Governance, what's the further line of reporting to the Queen or the Grand High Priestess or whichever of the two is slightly more in charge, what's this project's budget and what's the, series of concentric enclosing budgets above that up to Governance's budget."
"For that matter, what is Governance's budget?"
Ferrer Maillol can give rough guesses for various quantities, and does.
By far the largest expense on Project Lawful so far would've been Raise Dead on the Security killed in the Nidal assault, at 5000gp per Raise. But that doesn't actually get paid by Project Lawful, it gets paid by the part of the government that Raises people.
De facto, the largest recurring expense on Project Lawful is by far the senior wizards making up Security. They'll run around 500gp/week apiece, and while it's not considered good practice for anyone including Maillol to know exactly how many Security there are, there'd be more than six and less than thirty. That doesn't get paid out of Project Lawful's budget proper, it's a military expenditure by the branch of the military that got authorized by Governance to post Security here; after taking into account considerations that included a request, and payment, by Broom's faction, for there to be better protection here.
The actual Project Lawful, be it clear, has not yet at this point been assigned that kind of money flow. In part, because Maillol hasn't requested that kind of money flow apart from particular expenses, because it would have weakened his negotiating and political combat position in trying to keep lines of Governance above relatively simple and clear and prevent anybody else from swallowing Project Lawful; which, to be clear, the Queen could prevent, if it came to that, but only by expending her own political capital, which wouldn't be a good career move for Maillol himself unless there was a reason.
Things are now a bit clearer, but not to the point that somebody from dath ilan should get their hopes up.
Why he jumps on that part... well, it's a true-in-Taldor fact so perfectly safe so far as Maillol knows.
"5th-circle is when you become able to Teleport, which is massively more in demand than most things someone can do at 4th-circle. Also, I'm guessing it was Sevar who told you the figure of 100gp/week for her own earnings; she's right, but most 4th-circle wizards wouldn't make that. Not every 5th-circle wizard is qualified to be Security either."
Also right then. Keltham is thinking of retaining eight out of the current twelve job candidates past their first contracted week. He'll need to talk options for the remaining four compatible with Governance security considerations, and make sure those options are good enough.
Keltham is pretty sure that Asmodia, Meritxell, and Ione all now have expected value to Chelish Governance exceeding that of a 5th-circle Security wizard, but for purposes of aligning incentives, Keltham intends to offer them most of their real compensation in the form of small shares of future Project Lawful income, which is considered the very standard best practice of Civilization. His plan is 200gp/week for the three, plus a 10,000gp bonus for Ione in respect for her special, hazardous, possibly long-term damaging, and highly useful service in delivering advance warning on the Nidal assault and maybe actually timing that assault so Keltham would be safer. Carissa gets 300gp/week in respect of her status as being something like Keltham's de facto ops officer or second-in-command.
Pilar, Peranza, Tonia, and Gregoria aren't obviously going to end up irreplaceably valuable, but are still in the running for being less brilliant researchers, or maybe brilliant ones if the intelligence headbands ever come through and are any good. 100gp/week for each of them except Pilar. Pilar gets 150gp/week in token of her higher-than-obvious expected value and a future promotion if it turns out that Cayden Cailean has more in mind than snacks, and Pilar should also get 1000gp for taking a sword in place of Keltham, which would not obviously have been a terrible thing if it had happened, but key word 'obviously'.
Keltham realizes that no actual agreement has been reached on how Chelish funding of the Project will be compensated. Keltham will compose a suggested interim compact on what counts as Project revenue, pending some more difficult working-out of the basic question of how to measure the Project's benefit to Cheliax (including the counterfactual on Keltham having started elsewhere instead), and fire that back as a suggestion. But people do need their nonvolatile portion of their salaries in the meanwhile; possibly they wouldn't starve if unpaid, but it is considered a core good practice in Civilization that if you can't pay basic salaries it's time to shut down the company.
Keltham's current plan is to request 500gp/week nominal salary for now, but with the understanding that Keltham might come back and ask for an increase if it turns out that there are magic items he can't get on a Governance budget and that would substantially increase his own effectiveness. If it's a better look if Keltham gets 100gp/week instead, he's potentially open to that for now or to start, since he doesn't currently know how he'd actually spend the money on much.
No other project members have particularly expressed agreement with any of these offers, and the four core members, in Keltham's view, would have considerable leverage over him to demand higher nonvolatile incomes, though Keltham would in that case reduce their share of future Project income. Keltham is nonetheless interested in hearing if these budget quantities sound feasible.
She wishes she weren't lying to him.
It's a stupid thing to wish; if he were actually just Evil this project would be going much better but much worse for Carissa in particular.
But it'd be nice, to be standing here in Maillol's room on the same side.
Also, that's a lot of money! She'll be able to make so many magic items with which to corrupt and ensnare Keltham which she can credibly claim is within the budget he negotiated for her.
She thinks they should go ahead. The researchers now know that they were forced to sell their souls for much less than they're selling for in Dis; a lot of gold is the right start towards convincing them they're still coming out ahead. And Keltham's more sensitive to being cheated about money than to being cheated in other ways. Probably it should be a strain for alter Cheliax, though, so future requests can be denied.
She does not want Sala to have that much money to play with. Perhaps such a large sum can't be gotten all at once.
They can discuss the other girls later.
"I'll look into available options for the four leaving the Project, and get back to you shortly."
"10,000gp to Ione would be politically difficult to swing, for now. Yes, she saved us more than two Raise Deads, it's still politically difficult. Easier to give her a higher salary for the moment."
"For the rest, it'll burn some political capital and reduce our future room for maneuver, but I can make it happen. You okay with that?"
"I'll ask Ione if she's okay with being at 400gp/week to reflect her special services, though with the understanding that she's still below Carissa on the organizational chart."
"I don't suppose that there'd possibly be any legible answer, if I asked for a quantitative estimate of how much political capital it burns, as a fraction of all we've got? Or how fast I can regenerate that political capital by teaching more useful things similar to those already taught? Or how much better it is if the salaries all go down by 25%?"
"Sorry. Best I can give you is that knocking 25% off all the salaries would probably not really help much."
"Not saying it's the wrong decision, I think it's the right decision if you want my opinion on it, just letting you know the costs. And that a similar recurring expense getting added next week, wouldn't be a good look absent something exciting to show along the way."
"In principle, my current boss is High Priestess Jacint Subirachs, who is not usually a manager and is more of a 7th-circle cleric with a peacetime specialty in... actually, you just ask her if you want to know what she usually does. Subirachs can be the 7th-circle firepower on the premises, but without her belonging to the military or any of the other factions that would love to absorb us even though they scarcely have any idea what we do; meaning that none of those factions were offended by another faction getting the prize when it was announced I would temporarily be reporting to her after the Nidal attack. Subirachs reports directly to the Grand High Priestess. She is not, in fact, managing anyone or anything besides me, except as directed in cases like her monitoring Sevar for the last few days."
"Project Lawful is in principle a Church-managed project because of the Asmodeus intervention, hence the ultimate report to the Grand High Priestess on paper. Its budget however is coming out of the Queen's side of things, and if the Queen gave me or Subirachs an order we'd obey. The Queen could in principle fund it from her privy purse but she'd rather not and I'd rather not ask. So your budget request for salaries is going to be submitted to a special projects office general enough that it could reasonably claim the credit - inside Governance internal politics, not with the Queen who knows better - for cheaper roads or hotter forges or several of the other things you've talked about, whose director knows me personally and who the Queen had a personal chat with and which will then be backed for a correspondingly higher budget within Governance."
"Anything relating to Security ignores all this and heads off into a bizarre tangle which, from your perspective, acts like a spun coin that is also insane. I do expect them to do a good job of not letting you get kidnapped."
"On the whole, this is a stunningly clear situation for a project like this one to end up in, and you should thank me for maneuvering to keep things so incredibly simple and straightforward. I hope we can keep it."
"I'm mostly guessing that reflects a decision to allocate more competent people to the Worldwound, thereby leaving fewer to run the rest of Cheliax, and not that people actually become more competent managers when fighting demons. But it's an important question because it determines whether the rest of Cheliax would get saner or crazier if we closed the Worldwound."
"Somebody should talk to me about whether hitting that place really hard, the way Civilization could hit it, would actually help or hurt anything. Since I last thought of that question, the new thought occurs to me that since there's apparently known Wish phrasings that definitely do create giant flaming craters, that it hasn't been considered to set one of those on a timer and get everyone away? Should I actually be talking to Ione about that sort of thing?"
"Guess it's the sort of thing that I probably can't solve easily, but I should talk about it with a more experienced wizard anyways. Just in case I'm like 'well have you tried observing the rift's resonating frequency so you can try driving it to collapse using a simple oscillator' and they're like 'what'."
"It seems worth a shot, and I actually do expect Civilization will close the Worldwound, just by - being able to have lots of smart people think about it full time and being richer so we can move the wardstones in a bit at a time, give ourselves a smaller perimeter to defend, figuring out other clever stuff. But my bet is there's not a single clever solution. Partially because Iomedae is notably absent from this here god pileup."
"You act like we know we have the complete god list."
"I don't quite see that reasoning squaring up, actually. Unless Iomedae has an impossibly high discount rate for a god, she should care similarly regardless of whether we close the Worldwound in fifty years or five, unless it's otherwise due to close anyways. I'd guess that, if she doesn't like Asmodeus, she's not happy enough to help with this project even if it ends up closing the Worldwound later..."
"I'd be more nervous about the conspicuous apparent absence of Lawful Good if Cayden Cailean wasn't in. Not that I understand what that implies, but, it's less of an unambiguous warning sign than all the altruists staying out of your project."
"Not counting Broom's god? I guess the catastrophe-prevention god posting an observer doesn't exactly count as an endorsement per se."
"My brain's still bugging me about the four who I decided didn't make the cut. Until Maillol gets back to me with their options, I don't feel like I can actually have that horribly unpleasant interview that's looming ever larger in my imagination, but it also feels increasingly awful that I haven't, like, let them know. Not a problem you're supposed to solve for me, the person who makes the decision is supposed to bear the unpleasant-interview consequences of it."
"If we get to the point where you're working with me to decide who to hire, and making your own calls about who to let go, you can handle that part, yeah. I suppose for this occasion I could have asked you who to keep and see if your judgment matched mine, and if it did, I could tell you to handle the exit interview on the grounds that you apparently knew the full reasons for why they weren't staying."
Carissa gives him a hug, and contemplates the exit interviews that she's in fact going to have to give, tonight, once they've figured out what to do next with the girls.
She is kind of dreading it, which is pathetic. Hurting and terrorizing people is fun and necessary and she hasn't been doing it enough lately.
Keltham enters into his date with Meritxell with only a slight sense of trepidation.
He's mostly worried about strange things his own brain might do to him. He's only a little worried about whether Meritxell will suddenly decide that she should stop seducing him and let herself be the one seduced during the rest of the date. Thereby revealing the true illusoriness of his apparently promised rise out of the ranks of the median male mate-value; which is not high enough to get much seduction-work put into you, compared to the amount expected by, say, a woman.
But primarily he is in fact expecting this date to go fine, and if not, he'll deal.
How's Meritxell dressed? Anything interesting, or does she not, per se, have anything except her uniform?
The important thing is that she's trying, making any sort of visible effort. The new gendertrope in him seems like it would be sad, if she wasn't.
He'll ask if anyone has mentioned to Meritxell a certain contract that she'd have to sign if she wanted to preserve her options for the evening getting sufficiently interesting; signing this contract doesn't decide anything, to be clear, it just preserves possibilities in that undecided future.
This does leave the puzzling question of what they could possibly find to talk about during their date, a search that Keltham himself has always dreaded (he says). They haven't read any of the same books, written fanfictions set in the same universe, aren't obviously on opposite sides of any shared debate; and all of their previous life experiences are probably far too similar for their random childhood anecdotes to have any interest whatsoever for each other.
So, all those men far less worthy than Keltham, who proved unable to wear her in her true shirt-form - what sort of sex has she been having with them instead?
"Some of these redactions are because we're not allowed to know that, but I think most of them are actually because what he was thinking was untranslatable. But I think the approximate picture is that the forces that put Keltham on top of me did that for a reason, and might have been the reason for subsequent interventions to make things more like a dath ilani romance. And we want Keltham to believe that's not true, but it probably is," Carissa concludes the briefing for Asmodia. "Questions."
Who is Sevar a hidden cleric of, then, Asmodia does not ask, because Sevar is apparently managing not to know this.
"I want so much for there to be some way to extract more information about dath ilani romance novels from Keltham, we need that information, it's just, so much not a priority in the Tropeless World where we don't actually care -"
"Wait. Paxti. We could brief her on the parts that Keltham knows we know, tell her on full Bluff that we absolutely don't believe it and think Keltham is right not to believe it either, and Paxti would absolutely fly off to pester Keltham about it given permission. That happens in the Tropeless World if Paxti gets briefed."
"But Keltham might not believe that - is it a disaster if he doesn't - yes it is because then he concludes not just that he's in the Trope World but also in the Conspiracy World because we hid the tropes from him and tried to conceal our inquiry about it -"
"Could Ione just be openly curious, she's visibly different from the rest of us -"
"I'll think about it."
"One thing does seem clear to me, the tropes are things of Probability. Understanding Keltham's Law of Probability is going to be just as much key to mastering them as knowing the particulars of dath ilani romance novels. If I had to guess, that's what the not-understandable terms were about."
"Making copies of people, which can produce probabilities of three hundred hundredths, three years after Probability gets taught to dath ilani which means it is still being taught to children."
"In the Tropeless World, would I be urgently interested enough to bother Keltham about 'anthropics'? No, but Ione might be... he could suspect us being behind Ione's question anyways, it'd be true and we can't stake everything on a dath ilani never imagining a thing that happens to be true. Ione asking about anthropics doesn't quite have all the same problems as asking Keltham about dath ilani romance novels, there's a real excuse about it being fascinatingly forbidden mathematics. But it has most of the problems."
"...I don't think I can actually do this without +4 to both Intelligence and Wisdom and maybe also solving some of the problems that Keltham posted. It feels like I'm just pretending to talk the way I think when I'm actually smart."
Oh.
Carissa is going to end up with the mental habit of assuming the Grand High Priestess and the Queen are watching her at all times. Which is good for her moral development, probably.
"Grand High Priestess," she says on the off chance Asmodia wasn't sure, and inclines her head.
Asmodia has never met Aspexia Rugatonn before and it was, in fact, taking her a moment to identify that this is not just a high priestess of Asmodeus but one who's wearing the very distinct Crown of the Most High.
She's so shocked that it takes her too, too long to realize that she should be falling to her knees feeling more terrified than she has at any moment since she wept in the Gardens of Erecura no she needs to not think about that there must be no suspicious gaps in her thoughts what should she be thinking about -
They said that people on the project didn't get tortured she hopes that's true even with the Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus she didn't mean, she didn't mean any temerity, she only hoped for the tool she needs to serve Asmodeus -
Asmodia stays kneeling with new terror pouring through her. How many bad things can happen to you in two and a quarter hours? A lot, more than enough to break you forever before you can die.
Her life is very recently unfucked, and she has had a long long time of being terrified before that, and bad things happening to her, to remember.
Carissa notices the absurd temptation to tell Asmodia it'll be all right, which it probably will but she doesn't know, and presumably the Grand High Priestess is as terrifying as is salutary anyway and shouldn't be undermined even if Carissa knew, and had a good reason to reassure Asmodia, which she does not. Asmodia will get what serves Asmodeus, as will we all.
She should go talk with Maillol about arrangements for the girls being fired from the project. She does that.
The girl's thoughts are slightly strange, they cut out sometimes, as if she were suppressing some ill thought and doing quite a good job of that. Usually there are traces, the thought before the suppressed thought is revealing. If Rugatonn used one of her full-caster-level Detect Thoughts, she could probably go right past this Asmodia's defenses, but those she must save and hazard wisely.
The thoughts Rugatonn can detect are all entirely ordinary terror.
She lets Asmodia go on kneeling and scaring herself for a time, for this will also help teach a lesson, and finally Rugatonn speaks. "Rise, Asmodia. You can expect no harm if you conduct yourself with a modicum of prudence."
Asmodia scrambles to her feet, not entirely able to hide her tremors. Very very briefly the thought occurs to her to wonder why this could not have been said earlier, before she hammers it down with prudence.
"How may I serve, Most High?" she says, for the first lesson of Hell is to obey.
"You will have a little more than two hours in which to think about certain matters, during which Security will prevent you from leaving this room, but will bring you any notes you desire, or even assistance if you think that helpful to you. Foremost, use that time to consider those arts by which one would seek to deceive a dath ilani and weave about him an illusion he cannot distinguish from reality, even though, in the end, the two must be distinct."
"Secondarily I will set you a puzzle, or rather, a subject to consider. Spend a quarter-hour on it, at the end of your time, and report back to me on your thoughts after I return to you. Have you recovered from your terror enough that you are hearing and understanding these words?"
"Yes, Most High. What is the other puzzle I am to consider?" She briefly considers asking what happens if she fails, rejects the thought, she has been told once that she will not be harmed if she shows a little prudence and it is not prudent to make the Most High repeat herself.
"The way of diligent obedience to something greater than yourself, which cannot see you clearly, which can speak to you hardly at all, whose goals and purposes you understand but barely and often with wild errors on your own part, something which in some ways knows far better than you do the consequences of your acts and yet too often fails to know what any mortal could see in moments with their mortal eyes."
"One might consider an adult trying to guide a three-year-old through a dungeon, seen in flashes through foggy glass, and only every ten minutes may they call out to the child at all; I ask not what must be the way of that adult, but the way of that child."
"I would have you speak to me upon this topic as it might be spoken of by a dath ilani, or out of your own knowledge of such Law as Keltham has taught."
"Your project of deceiving Keltham will have fruits evaluated by Sevar. Your thoughts on obedience will be evaluated by me. The work that you do for Sevar is more urgent, and, unless your other work has entirely stalled out before then, you will not spend more than fifteen minutes considering the question I just posed you. If you cannot turn your thoughts from my interesting question and complete your more important work, you will fail your more important work and I do expect that to be the more severe cost to you than failing my own small test."
"These instructions will be copied to you in writing by the Security who has witnessed it. Do you have any questions?"
"I will not tell it to you. You could, I suppose, try to deduce the purpose behind my instructions; and then, with that understanding, you could do what you deemed best yourself to serve what you guessed to be my purpose, rather than being constrained by the chains of following instructions you do not really understand."
Aspexia Rugatonn smiles. It's not one of the pleasant smiles.
"But, even then, little child, you would not be punished. The habit of punishing that as much as I would wish, would be too expensive to Cheliax for me to follow all my impulses there. Sevar is running her experiment. I will not invalidate it. Not so long as you exercise a modicum of prudence. Any further questions?"
"Invoke none of the active functions of my Crown, while I sleep the two hours I must sleep every day. Do not fear invoking them by accident, a deliberate will is required."
Aspexia lifts the Crown of the Most High from off her head, as she has not done in quite some time now, and diminishes.
You would not be able to tell, unless you knew her well, that who stands before Asmodia now is not the true Most High, but only a creature of habits and reflexes and plans already laid.
A creature of habit and pre-laid plans lays the Crown on Asmodia's head. The artifact changes shape as well, to a form less recognizable if no less potent.
"There are not such things as headbands of +4 to Intelligence and Wisdom lying about without wearers," says the creature of habit and pre-laid plans. "This Crown is +6 to Wisdom and +4 to Intelligence. And +4 to Splendour, if that matters for anything. See well what you can do with it, because only very grand results will lead to there ever being a second opportunity like this. Manage anything decent and a headband of +4 Wisdom will be found for you, to be used with Fox's Cunnings."
"I go now to sleep; you have two hours or some tiny fraction more."
The flesh golem following the remembered instruction of the true Most High, who does not in this moment exist anywhere in Golarion, turns to depart.
Asmodia is calling to Security in all haste: she needs her notes, she needs the exact text of the questions that Keltham laid, she desires Ione brought to her even if she can but serve as sounding-board, and now she is already thinking while she awaits those resources. To waste time would not be wise, and Asmodia is nothing, in this moment, if not wise.
"Keltham wants the other girls put up somewhere comfortable, maybe in this building, and taught some economically valuable skill," Carissa tells Maillol. "I don't think he suspects anything about Hell. Might be for the best anyway, for the girls remaining in the project to not be terrified of failing out, and so we don't have to micromanage the conversations where he fires them to prevent desperate outbursts of some kind or another."
"I hesitate to contradict you on a matter of Keltham psychology. But in this case, I would wager money," the wording is deliberate, "that our pet cleric of Abadar wants the girls to not be any worse off than if they'd never tried to trade with him."
"That's what he wants. What do we want? We want him to believe they're fine, we want to present him with the same visible appearances that alter-Cheliax would..."
"Impersonators are expensive. Keeping the failures around the fortress isn't cheap, but it's a lot less expensive than that."
"Other option that occurs to me is sending them to Egorian to keep up appearances about the fake Project Lawful and free up an impersonator there," and more importantly, get them out of Maillol's personal hair, "but you'd need to decide what alter-Cheliax would be doing with them in Egorian. Alter-Cheliax doesn't have to worry about somebody using Detect Thoughts on the girls, since that spell doesn't exist there, I think? Which means they have wider options than we have in reality."
"I think alterCheliax doesn't send them to Egorian, since alterCheliax isn't running an elaborate con in Egorian. And I think it'll cross his mind that we're likelier to be lying about them being all right if he can't check than if he can. If we think alterCheliax should be running the thing we're running in Egorian... I need to think that through, probably with Asmodia. In alterCheliax Iomedae's not visibly expending tons of resources trying to see what's going on with our operations, and I don't think Osirion tried to kidnap Pilar either."
"Conventional theory of deception is that we'd love to have him get suspicious of how they're doing in Egorian, demand they be Teleported in right now for him to check up on, we promptly do, turns out they're fine."
"I'm still struggling with how the thing you do with dath ilani is... not that."
"The reason that would normally work is that most people would be matching new evidence they got to there being a deception in Egorian, building steadily greater conviction that there was a deception in Egorian, and on being satisfied there was no deception in Egorian decide that maybe they were over pattern matching and aren't being deceived. We'd be using against them their own tendency to - make sense of the world by weighing a couple stories instead of all of them. Keltham will instead have a general probability he's being lied to about something important that will go up if we do suspicious things, and if he's later satisfied there's nothing up in Egorian he'll just consider the conspiracies not in Egorian. AlterCheliax needs to be one whole fabric that produces everything we do, or we'll lose. ....lose sooner. I don't think this is going to last forever. I'm hoping to get a year out of it.
Also, I might want him to hook up with Yaisa. Maybe he'll have an easier time being Evil with girls he doesn't need for his research project."
"I was going to say that alter-Maillol wants the failures out of his management work and more limited budget, and does look for excuses to put them somewhere like Egorian or Ostenso. But if he needs to create a new project section to host Yaisa regardless, it's not much more work for him to keep the others here too." (This also happens to be true of the real Maillol.)
"Our pet Abadar cleric is going to need a story for why alter-Yaisa is sleeping with him if he's no longer her boss - he'll want to know what she's getting out of that in return, if not better promotion prospects. Think you've already run into some of that."
"I think he actually doesn't think we're sleeping with him for promotion prospects! Alter Yaisa is just very into him, and likes having his attention, and wants to be the one who gets him to stop being so Good all the time. If Yaisa can pull that off, which I'll ask Subirachs."
"...I don't understand alter-Cheliax teenaged girls, but hopefully that's not too much of my job and Asmodia can advise me on whatever is."
"Keltham talked about wanting to check over if their options were good enough, not their fates, he wants to offer them choices and see what they pick. What else would alter-Cheliax have offered them that they're turning down to stay in the fortress? Obviously not free run of Ostenso while they learn in an enchanter's workshop there, because that they'd just take. So even without Detect Thoughts existing, alter-Cheliax has to be too worried about security issues to let them do that, or any other jobs nicer than being stuck in a fortress. Am I doing this right?"
"Slightly backwards. What does alter Cheliax offer them, just from what we established about it not from what we want it to offer? But in this case I think it gets the same answer - alter Cheliax is still paranoid about someone going after the former Project Lawful girls for intel and wants them somewhere safe. They could be offered a role on another secret project if there's one they'd be suited to, they could be offered powerful magic to untraceably change their identities and start new lives on the other side of the world if such magic is available to Cheliax, which I don't know it to be, they could be offered a role on the project doing support magic..."
Carissa Sevar, who was admittedly rushed, has neglected to include some critical advice and life experience with respect to dating dath ilani.
Meritxell has made the serious error of mentioning that she didn't fully grasp some of what Keltham said earlier about stock companies.
Keltham is currently explaining how a Lawful corporation has an internal prediction market, which forecasts the observable results on running various possible projects that company could be trying, which in turn is used to generate an estimate of marginal returns on marginal internal investment; this prevents a corporation from engaging in obvious madness like accepting an internal project with 6% returns while turning down another internal project with expected 10% returns.
The wider market, obviously, would also like to invest all its money where it'll get the highest returns; but it's usually not efficient to offer the broader market a specialized sub-ownership of particular corporate subprojects, since the ultimate usefulness of corporate subprojects is usually dependent on many other internal outputs of the company. It doesn't do any good to have a 'website' without something to sell from it. Sure, if everyone was an ideal agent, they'd be able to break things down in such a fine-grained way. But the friction costs and imperfect knowledge are such that it's not worth breaking companies into even smaller ownable pieces. So the wider stock market can only own shares of whole corporations, which combine the outputs and costs of all that company's projects.
Thus any corporation continuously buys or sells its own stock, or rather, has standing limit orders into the stock market to buy various quantities if the price goes low or sell various quantities if the price goes high, at prices that company sets depending on its internal belief about the returns from investing or not investing in the marginal subprojects being considered. If the company isn't considered credible by the wider market, its stock will go lower and the company will automatically buy that stock, which leaves them less money to invest in new projects internally, and means that they only invest in projects with relatively higher returns - doing less total investment, but getting higher returns on the internal investments that they do start. Conversely if the wider market thinks a company's promises to do a lot with money are credible, the stock price will go up and money will flow into that company until they no longer have internal investment prospects that credibly beat the broader market.
This may sound complicated, and it is probably a relatively more complicated part of the machinery that is necessarily implied by the existence of distinct stock corporations in the first place. But the alternative, if you zoom out and look at the whole planet of dath ilan, is that a corporation in one place would be investing in a project with internally expected returns of 6%, and somebody on the other side of the planet would be turning down a project with market-credible returns of 10%, which means you could reorganize the whole planet and do better in a predictable way. So whatever does happen as a consequence of the existence of stock corporations, it has to be not that.
Some form of drastic action on Meritxell's part is obviously required if she wants to get back on track to having sex with this person. What does she do, if anything?
...right.
"Sorry. This is - more of a recognized problem in dath ilan, and the 'gendertropes', the male-female behavior options, do usually have the girl interrupting the boy before he gets to this point. Or the boy interrupting the girl, but that happens around a quarter as often."
"Well, if you didn't like current ongoing events, clearly, there must be something you'd rather be doing; and it is hardly thinkable that this activity would not involve me in any way. So what, do tell, is your greater preference?"
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
2. Surprising claims require surprising evidence; unsurprising evidence suffices for unsurprising claims.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to at least one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the thing-that-is-a-likelihood-ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme thing-that-is-the-prior-odds, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
So it doesn't take Asmodia much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, onward Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is inventing completing seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
She's... probably not supposed to say anything and interrupt this? Just stick around and be a sounding-board if necessary? Most of what Asmodia's scribbling makes no sense, at least not to Ione, but Asmodia sure looks like she's having fun.
Ione wants that headband. It looks ordinary but she's guessing it's not.
Carissa spends a few minutes meditating on the virtue of Evil. This seems like a straightforward place for it; Good would hesitate to fire the students who are slowing the project down, because it makes people sad and Good is in significant part built off the instinctive human flinch at achieving your goals in ways that make other people sad. Evil can do the thing that accomplishes the goal, not enslaved by guilt. If she were condemning these girls to Hell, she would be doing that because it advanced her goals, and she would have the strength to do things that advance her goals. As it happens she's doing an easier thing.
She asks to have them brought to her one by one; she'll have more control over the conversation that way.
Paxti comes in looking, to Chelish eyes, visibly more cheerful than she might've looked on Day 1. She's on the low-punishment regimen, her soul is worth some unreasonably vast quantity in Dis's markets, somebody in Egorian is building a reputation for her as Project Lawful's deadliest weapon, and she didn't win the last Keltham seduction contest but she's bound to win one eventually.
The Grand High Priestess would lead with 'you're fired' and let Paxti simmer for a bit, but Carissa doesn't actually understand why, understand along what dimension that makes Paxti stronger.
Well, the only way to learn is to try it and see what happens.
"We told Keltham the girls were initially here on one week contracts, so tonight he decided whose contract he wants to renew as a researcher. He didn't pick you, because you're not really keeping up in math."
"Keltham of course wants all the girls who have worked with him to be better off for it. He proposes that you be given a bunch of options including reassignment to some other project, hanging out in Hell for a couple years until you don't know anything secret, or staying here in a different wing of the fortress and getting lessons in some kind of advanced magic you wouldn't have had access to at your age otherwise - I was thinking maybe ring forging because then I can drop in in my abundant free time and pick it up myself. Keltham plans to tell you tomorrow about his decision and your options, and I recommend that after thinking it over you pick the option where you stay here, though of course you may go to Hell if you'd rather. Ask Asmodia what it was like; for Project Lawful girls it's quite different, I think."
"I'll stay here and learn ring forging," Paxti says almost immediately. She's not stupid enough to pick a choice other than the recommended one. She doesn't dare ask explicitly if she still gets to stay on a low-punishment regimen, but she's certain that's not on offer for projects elsewhere, or for that matter, in Hell.
"Good. I want you to think very hard about alter Paxti, and what she'd believe about Hell and about her options, and how she'd react to getting this surprising news from Keltham tomorrow, and if you do a good job, you're already cleared to know about Project Lawful and there may be opportunities in it for you in the future."
Paxti goes off to her room to think about what alter-Paxti would think. It's too hard, and she asks if Asmodia is available to tell her, but Asmodia isn't available and won't be for a while. She taps herself with a Fox's Cunning and the main thought that comes to her on Cunning is that Owl's Wisdom might let her get this right and not die, but when she leaves her room to ask, Security either doesn't have a Wisdom available, or doesn't think she's a priority anymore.
She goes back into her room and wonders if alter-Paxti would cry right there when Keltham tells her, if people in alter-Cheliax are more pathetic than those in true-Cheliax. Someone else will have to instruct her about that. It's not a decision she'd be authorized to make even if she was still a full member of Project Lawful.
She files a request with Security for an Asmodia alter-Cheliax consult as soon as Asmodia is available.
She files a request with Security to still be part of the Nap Stack so she has longer to think tonight.
She goes to look at Keltham's seven problems, which, if she was smarter, she should've done before the Cunning wore off. If she could solve them all, if she could solve any of them, maybe Keltham would want her to stay on.
After a while she thinks she understands #2. That's enough, right?
...she's pretty sure it's not. It's the simple one that Keltham included so even the dumber students wouldn't feel disappointed about getting zero right, because that's how Keltham thinks.
Paxti wonders if Keltham would have kept her if she'd been more proactive about having sex with him. Probably yes. It's not that he's firing her for reluctance, it's that, if she had slept with him faster, he'd feel too guilty now to do this to her. Her own stupidity for thinking she was safe to take her time. Sevar was smart. Asmodia was smart. Meritxell was smart. Ione was smart. Paxti should have paid more attention to what the smarter people around her were doing.
"I'm keeping up," Pela says. "I'm just quiet."
"You're mostly keeping up. You wouldn't fail a class, if this were a class. But you'd be the slowest one remaining, if you stayed, and Keltham doesn't think that's worth it. Though you may argue with him tomorrow if and only if you are quite confident that alter Pela would argue with him; run your reasoning by me."
"He's going to get tired of you too, you know."
Carissa's Unseen Servant slaps her. "That was stupid and petty and unprofessional and you know it; you can still try to make your case to Keltham in the morning if I am persuaded you'd make it in alter Cheliax. My fate is no one's concern but mine, and yours no one's concern but you."
"Oh," Yaisa says.
"You thought he liked you."
She doesn't answer.
"He does, and you have permission to keep trying to seduce him. You might have a better angle on it, actually, since he doesn't have to work with you afterwards."
"What do you mean," Jacme says slowly, "that we might prefer Hell."
It means that Carissa really wants to eavesdrop on Asmodia advising other Project girls about Hell; it's information she desperately needs for her plan to make them resilient to mental breakdowns about it. She's convinced at this point that Hell did something. She's not allowed to know what. But maybe she's allowed to know the implications of whatever Hell did for whether Project Lawful girls ought to fear it. "Well," she says blandly, "we all desire Hell so that Asmodeus may have freer reign to improve and reform us. Asmodia seems improved, doesn't she?"
"....uh huh."
"So what I think #6 has to be pointing at is, okay, I'm going to just say this and hope your mind doesn't collapse because you're one of the Special Girls, it's pointing at how Asmodeans sort of go around trying to convince themselves really hard that sure they want to go to Hell and actually they don't and this is not a way a dath ilani would ever think. Ever. #6 is going to be the fragment of Law that prohibits that."
"It's going to mean a lot more than that, unless we've already lost our game to Keltham completely. And if he was planning to convince everyone around him to turn traitor, if he was directly playing against the real Cheliax, then he wouldn't give us advance warning, he'd just hit everyone in the class with the full lecture."
"How does the Law of Probability tell people not to do what you just said? It doesn't seem connected to any of the quantities we've been using before now. If you understand the meaning of the words, tell me about the math, connect it to anything and I'll be able to unravel everything else from there and maybe in less than a minute."
Apparently 'Asmodeans are lying to themselves about wanting to go to Hell' is just a fine thing to say to Asmodia and she doesn't argue with it.
Ione really wishes she knew what was going on here.
"I think problems #6 and #7 are meant to be harder than the first five, probably require the first five to get. I only got #2 on my own and I've been too distracted by watching you figure out the others. I'm guessing you don't want me to take the time to figure them out on my own -"
"#1 is about how there's all the different things a hypothesis could predict, and all the probabilities it puts on them have to sum to 1, if there's like five different things that could happen, you can't say 40% for each, even if you come up with a really clever explanation for each of them, if all the explanations sound equally clever they get the same probability which is 20% each and that's just the same as going 'I don't know' about each of them."
"#2 you got, it sounds like, it just says that if something is half as likely as something else, you need evidence twice as likely as if not to start believing it, and if it's a thousandth the evidence has to be a thousand times as likely -"
"I want to believe you about that, but unfortunately, it sounds like neither my wanting to believe you, nor the fact that you came up with any arguments for it, should ever convince me of anything. By the way, can I have all your money? And before you try to convince yourself otherwise, keep in mind that you should never be able to convince yourself of anything."
Asmodia is now completely ignoring Ione and scribbling something about P(observation1 ◁ hypothesis1) and P(hypothesis1 ◁ observation1) and P(observation1) and P(hypothesis1) and P(~observation1) and what appears, roughly, to be every possible combination of the symbols in Keltham's language, which, once exhausted, she starts multiplying and adding together in quantities like P(hypothesis1 ◁ observation1) * P(observation1) + P(hypothesis1 ◁ ~observation1) * P(~observation1) and now she's expanding the definitions and trying to prove things.
Right. Ione will just try to work out some of the other problems on her own, then.
It does, in fact, take her only a minute.
(P(hypothesis1 ◁ observation1) * P(observation1)) + (P(hypothesis1 ◁ ~observation1) * P(~observation1)) = P(hypothesis1).
If you add up how much you'd believe in something, given a piece of evidence, times your chance of seeing that evidence, with how much you'd believe something, if you saw not that evidence, times the chance of seeing not that evidence, it's just the same probability you started with. You can end up convinced of things, you just can't expect to be convinced of them. Any time you go look for something, that you're hoping will convince you of something, there's a counterbalancing chance you won't find it and then the math requires you to end up believing less. On net it all balances out.
"I've got #6, no time to explain it though, tell me about #7, not in math I have the math now just what it does it mean."
It couldn't literally be the Crown of Infernal Majesty, could it? That's just flatly impossible even on Project Lawful.
"Well, if we're going full-out on heresy - and hoping that, for some reason, you and not just I survive that experience - then, the same way #6 is about how you shouldn't be able to convince yourself of things - #7 is about how you shouldn't believe the Church when they try to convince you about it."
"We've already been through this you can end up convinced of things you just can't expect to be convinced of them. Why can't you expect the Church to convince you of anything? They're allowed to know all sorts of things you don't, they could have all sorts of properly convincing evidence you haven't seen."
"That's not the dath ilani answer, I'm sure of it, it's not what Keltham would say - what if they swear to everything in Asmodeus's name, what if they're under truthspell and you're powerful enough to make it stick, if this is math that holds across all the imaginable realities then whatever #7 means will still be true even then."
"If they're under truthspell and can't evade it, they'll still tell you only the things that help their case, and hide everything that doesn't, and if you just took that at face value you'd always end up convinced every time by whatever Church you talked to, and I bet dath ilani don't work like that."
"Good work Ione now shut up again."
She almost has it.
She can feel it, she's almost there.
The key to the game between dath ilani.
If the Conspiracy is choosing what to show you, if you know that, if you expect that, it changes - something, somehow - it has to still obey the Law that you can't expect to end up convinced of what the Conspiracy shows you - they can only win if they take you unawares, but if you correctly guess what the Conspiracy is doing, how they're thinking, you win because then the world you see is what you expect if there's a Conspiracy, no matter how much they try to show you things from an Ordinary world - you could keep on seeing evidence that favored Ordinary and go on shifting towards Ordinary and then look back at all the shifts, too many shifts, and realize something was wrong -
No, that's not right, that doesn't feel like the way the math has to work, 'look back on the math and realize something's wrong' isn't something she can prove with numbers and everything else on Keltham's list is -
There are three minutes left on her allocated hour when Asmodia looks up from the example she was building for herself, about somebody who wants to convince you who murdered somebody else, and the clues are all ways that a coin-spin can land, and they're only telling you about the coin-spins that landed Queen and none of the ones that landed Text.
She feels exultant and strangely calm at the same time.
She was right. #7 is the key. Not just a key, the key. Maybe there are much more complicated things that true dath ilani know about this game, but Asmodia has the key to the basic rules.
It's very simple, in the end: The probability of the coin landing Queen on the third coin-spin isn't the same as the probability of somebody telling you about how the third coin-spin landed Queen.
Maybe in the end it's just common sense about how lying works if you're not being blatant about it, except that now Asmodia knows how to mate that common sense with the dath ilani numbers that they use to track the subtle shifts of probability.
Keltham isn't just thinking about what the Conspiracy is showing him, telling him. He's thinking about the probability that the world he's inside decides to show him and tell him those things.
If Keltham can figure out which facts the Conspiracy would choose to reveal to him, and he predicts that accurately, he'll learn he's inside the Conspiracy world. You can't expect to be convinced of things by a Conspiracy that you know is a Conspiracy. Not unless they pass some test that the true Conspiracy shouldn't be able to pass, like, you can believe someone about who the murderer is, if they show you all the coinspins, or even if they show you enough coinspins that the hidden ones couldn't matter even if they were all Text.
If the dath ilani correctly imagines the Conspiracy, if they figure out the rules the Conspiracy is actually following, they win; unless the Conspiracy following those rules is truly indistinguishable to them from the Ordinary world, and then it's a tie. And that's a contest Cheliax has already lost, because they've already screwed up alter-Cheliax a few times and Keltham may remember those.
If Asmodia can figure out what Keltham is thinking and - not show him a Conspiracy that picks which coinflips it shows in a way that Keltham can figure out - if the true Conspiracy is still using rules Keltham hasn't figured out - then she can convince Keltham of the Ordinary world, make him shift his probabilities in that direction. Which she has now proven, can only happen if Keltham wouldn't predict that, even thinking himself to be in the Conspiracy world the way that he currently suspects the Conspiracy to work.
...it's inherently a losing game. The more she shows Keltham, day after day, the more Keltham knows how the Conspiracy must be thinking, if there is in fact a Conspiracy. Everything she commands will carry the signature of the way Asmodia thinks, because she can't actually contain the whole alter-Cheliax within herself and truthfully. And if Keltham ever imagines Asmodia fully, if he sees enough the true shape of the shadowy hypothetical being playing against him, he wins.
But she can try to lose very slowly. Maybe, even, slowly enough.
That is the game between dath ilani; and if Asmodia isn't one herself, well, she is no longer entirely not one, either.
"I'm done," Asmodia says to Ione. "You can go now, unless you want to hang around for forty-five minutes in case I want somebody to bounce ideas off for the game against Keltham."
There's a strange feeling of emptiness to go with the exultation. Everything else she can do in the next forty-five minutes, working out more details of the game to play against Keltham, none of that is going to be as exciting as this.
Maybe the Grand High Priestess's puzzle will be more exciting.
The thought brings with it a chill of fear... no, she was told she wouldn't be hurt as long as she wasn't incredibly stupid. Being lent the Crown of the Most High isn't something that happens to you when your life is ending.
Will the Most High understand how much she's achieved? No, she was told that Sevar would judge it. And Sevar, Asmodia thinks, Sevar will understand.
It's hard to shift gears, from the math where things get solved and stay solved, to the real world where she has to play a slowly losing game against Keltham, full of particulars.
"So what's the most important thing we've got to make Keltham think next, according to Ione? Feel free to deliver a prophecy about it, if that helps."
"I mean, I would have answered that differently before, but right now, after watching you, I'd say the most important thing we want to convince Keltham about is that - for some reason - and I don't envy you your new job making this sound convincing and just as probable in Ordinary as in Conspiracy - in alter-Cheliax it's an incredibly bad idea for Keltham to ask us for a Fox's Cunning, even though everybody around him is getting them all the time and they look really helpful and fun."
All the exultation is quenched in an instant by icy water in her veins.
She doesn't get to keep the Crown of the Most High.
And even if she did, if Fox's Cunning plus Owl's Wisdom does to Keltham, anything like what it does to her -
They could lose at any time. Any instant. They can't have a plausible story ready to give Keltham when he asks for a Fox's Cunning, because Keltham is always walking around carrying the Conspiracy inside his head, and a plausible story is going to sound exactly like what the Conspiracy wants him to believe. They need to show him something that convinces him he doesn't want a Fox's Cunning, beforehand, and he will know that it's something that the Conspiracy would want him to believe.
But they have one advantage. They have an advantage, if Keltham is giving them an accurate picture of how he's thought so far, Keltham might credit, maybe, that in the Conspiracy world, Cheliax would never be crazy enough to tell him that Fox's Cunning or Intelligence headbands even existed. Which, to be clear, they absolutely should not have.
Though - if they lean on that, here - Keltham then learns a further true fact about the Conspiracy, in the world where the Conspiracy is real. He learns that they are learning as they go, that they were stupid enough at the start to tell him about Fox's Cunning but then changed their minds later; in the world where the Conspiracy existed, that will obviously be what happened inside the Conspiracy, even if it seems improbable and shifts belief in the Conspiracy downward for that moment. He'll think the Conspiracy is less probable, for the moment; but inside that hypothesis, knowing that takes him closer to the real Cheliax, closer to the truth about Asmodia playing the game against him.
It's still a forced move in the game. If Keltham gets a simultaneous Fox's Cunning and Owl's Wisdom, Cheliax loses. It's probably that simple. Why hasn't he asked for that already?
"Yeah," Asmodia says out loud. "Stick around, Ione. Security, I need Sevar in this room, or if she can't be here then I need messages passed fast enough for two-way conversation."
Keltham has been, among other things, repeatedly comparing Meritxell to his shirt, claiming that his shirt is much better than her, noting that it has zippers, asking if she has zippers, and examining her (unclothed) form and trying to further unzip her in various ways, most of which have not been working.
Meritxell is incredibly confused? There's no correspondence whatsoever between enjoying whipping people and enjoying banter? They're just completely different categories? She has absolutely no idea if she'd be this confused in alter Cheliax, or if she'd be able to hide in alter Cheliax. Stupid alter Cheliax is really ruining her sex life at this point.
"Well, I liked it," some version of Meritxell generated by some process or other inside the real Meritxell says aloud, and giggles.
"It's the response to the pain that matters to my 'gendertrope', I think, not just inflicting the pain itself. Limiting case, imagine trying to do that to the body of somebody who's currently in Hell and before they get Raised. This tells you that any internal response is necessary, not just going through the outward motions. Turns out the particular response also matters."
"I actually think the thing to do is to agree to cast Cunning on him if he asks but actually cast something else, if we can possibly get away with that. An excuse will seem too implausible. Is there some spell that'd have some mental effect but not the precise one - oh, I will have to ask Maillol if that's even allowed -"
"Why doesn't the spell do for him what it does for everyone else? Do we think Keltham doesn't think, never thinks until the game has already ended, of the possibility that the unknown masters of the Conspiracy sat around and figured out a different spell to cast on him instead? And Security, I request a response from Maillol now, we don't have much time."
It's - hard to say - it depends on what the spell does exactly, Maillol thinks - it may be permitted to fool Keltham, but not change him, maybe - he doesn't know why casting regular Fox's Cunning isn't already forbidden - maybe because it's transmutation, not enchantment, it works by a pathway where it doesn't decide what Keltham is thinking - there are things they're allowed to do more if the spell isn't targeting Keltham directly, that's why he was able to approve the spell that targets text and makes it uninteresting, because the spell is about the text and not about Keltham, because it obscures something from his perception rather than forcing his thoughts about it, it's like Invisibility in a way -
"So how many hours does that take to research?"
"Also, what if he asks to try on your headband."
Pointing out to other people how they're still doomed to explode wouldn't feel like so much fun if it was heretical, right? Surely she should have better instincts than that, if she's meant to belong to Nethys... she really needs the allowed belief list for her new people.
"Checking: Have you ever taken off your headband in front of Keltham?" Asmodia has seen Sevar do this, though not in front of Keltham.
"So everybody gets told never to tell any stories about people borrowing other people's headbands. We should've told him they needed to be customized, too late now... when everybody gets headbands for the first time, are we managing to give him one of only +1/2 int, or does he get told his headband is +4 even if it's +1, but then what if he asks to try on somebody else's headband so he can see the difference between that and +2... has Keltham seen anything that would contradict the idea that, headbands get traces of their wearers, nobody would want to wear somebody else's headband..."
- headshake. "I took one off a dead security during the Nidal attack, traded mine. I might've done that even if headbands get traces of their wearers, since we thought Nidal had tracked us through it, but I would've commented, and certainly not traded the Security the one I'd been wearing."
"If Keltham happens not to think of suggesting the swap the first day - and everybody else, if they say they don't want to lose their spells after that, by taking off the headband momentarily - he'll think it's just a silly theory, hopefully, and not worth upsetting people to run the test - never decides that testing it is as urgent as it was for you to swap your headband after the Nidal attack -"
"See, one thing the true dath ilan has in common with Nethysianism, I suspect, is that they get really creative about blowing things up. That thing Keltham said about dath ilani kids wanting to blow up their schools? These are not Asmodean kids we're talking about."
"So Keltham says, oh, how about if you get a Fox's Cunning cast on you, Carissa, so I can try on your headband? You won't lose your spells that way."
That doesn't work, as Ione knows perfectly well. "....so we need him to run across the information that that doesn't work before he thinks to ask because it's suspicious if we try to convince him at the time, even though it in fact doesn't work. Maybe I can - be seen wearing it in the bath, and he'll ask."
"We don't just need him to believe that you can't take it off, we need him to believe that you can't take it off even with a Fox's Cunning. Also him asking you to do something that feels like dying is one thing, him asking you to lose a couple of spell slots is another."
"And if his headband is really +1 instead of +4, does he notice that he doesn't get as many extra spell slots as he should? We have to tell him that you only gain as many spell slots from your +4 headband as he gets from his actually +1 headband."
It's definitely okay if they're only doing that for a few nights. If they're doing it all the time... does that end up damaging people, Maillol doesn't know, it feels like he's trying to keep poking at Asmodeus's instructions looking for the exact edges to work around them and this, once again, makes Aspexia Rugatonn sad.
You wouldn't like her when she's sad.
"Sevar, I didn't have time to explain this, but I solved all seven of Keltham's problems and #7 was the key, just like I thought it would be, and I'm still trying to understand all the implications but - if Keltham sees something that's surprising in the Conspiracy world, even if that also makes it surprising in the Ordinary world, it maybe means we don't lose the same way - though there's a cost, if we do something very weird, Keltham then knows that in the Conspiracy world we sometimes use weird tactics, but he's already in a world with Cayden Cailean snacks and god-wars and that's an argument we should ultimately win - can we think of something weird that convinces Keltham he doesn't want a Fox's Cunning, even though the rest of us do, where it doesn't look like that was the whole point of the weird thing -"
"Great. Bring in one of the new people you talked about, incredibly brilliant, you and Asmodia are both feeding her lines, two days later she's dead and refusing resurrection and the last thing she was observed to do was get a Fox's Cunning from Security. Maybe it interacts badly with dath ilanism."
"I couldn't think of anything specific like that," and it's frustrating, how can they still be smarter than her, in what way are they still smarter than her, why isn't she thinking of all these ideas first while wearing the literal actual Most High's headband. "Do we think we've got time for that, should there maybe be a Security who commits suicide instead and who was listening to Keltham's lectures... they're already wearing headbands. Pela, too much of an obvious other explanation, about the bad news she just got, it's too obvious we're picking somebody disposable. Should we have - Gregoria do it?"
"Though not actually send her to Hell, obviously."
Asmodia is not sure whether she can get away with saying she didn't want Gregoria in Hell. She is unclear on what heresies are allowed and which are still prohibited according to Carissa Sevar.
"Because we might want, for example, to keep our options open in terms of Hell sending Gregoria back later with no memory of what happened. That's harder to do with her still being okay afterwards if she's actually in Hell."
Gosh. That sounds like something an Asmodia who doesn't actually want to send her classmate to Hell might say.
She should distract Sevar in case Sevar's thinking that too.
"Better yet, Gregoria writes a suicide note, a Security reads it, he commits suicide, the next Security burns the note, and two days later they're both back from Hell with no memories. That way Keltham's got more to worry about than 'maybe the whole point is the Fox's Cunning part'."
"No, sorry, I'm just thinking of things that are weird but not obviously weirder in the Conspiracy. We need a bunch and they can't all be pointed at the headband thing. - if Gregoria and a Security kill themselves I worry that looks like they had an attack of remorse about the conspiracy..."
"He won't finish concluding he's in a Conspiracy just from that, I think, and it - narrows down which Conspiracy world he lives in, in the wrong direction, if he thinks that's the reason, other Conspiracy things won't match up with it. We want that. I don't think he will but it's absolutely what we want, later I'll explain the math I saw."
"The main question is whether that makes total sense for alterCheliax, or maybe even, so much sense that Keltham thinks it's meant to point him at alterCheliax rather than the Conspiracy."
"And what else it makes be true about alterCheliax, that we have to live with after that."
"Though - now that I think about it - throwing a bunch of random weirdness at you - might be a tactic in the game between dath ilani that dath ilani would know about? It's something you see more when somebody is trying to prevent you from narrowing in on true reality."
"It might not end that moment, especially if he has something else to think about. The problem is, he'll want more."
"Don't you see? Wizards use Cunning for spells. Dath ilani know how to use it for thinking. The way you get more spell slots, a headband would amplify his ability to use the Law of Probability, the same way it's amplifying mine, only he must have so much more Law to use - Owl's Wisdom boosts it too, if he tries both at once and really tries to figure us out I think we lose."
"Okay.
A thing I am tempted to do here is something with alter-Cheliax having - tension between the Church and Crown - only I don't think we're going to be smart enough often enough to pull it off. The idea would be that we were told 'headbands might be compromised by Kuthites' but more likely is that headbands are being compromised by Egorian - I can imagine the Carissa that pulls it off but I think I'm not her."
Ione is currently trying to pull her thoughts away from the fascinating idea of putting the Crown of Infernal Majesty on Keltham to see what happens to him. She doesn't say anything to the others, she's sure that her helping to prevent that from happening would be heresy unto Nethys.
"I don't have the skill to pull off a deception in which alter Cheliax has internal political strife, you definitely don't have the skill, the Queen does. Unfortunately she's very busy but I do think it'd work if she was doing it, because she's paying attention to all of the small details of reality that'd indicate a Crown and Church at odds all the time anyway. But we should make a plan assuming we don't have that."
"I've never heard it said that the Queen is, you know, generally safe to be around, in the same way as say Aspexia Rugatonn or Gorthoklek. In unrelated news, I could use some more books, can I visit a bookshop in Ostenso coincidentally exactly during the time when the Queen happens to be visiting here?"
Off she goes, even though she has a good guess what the extra task is.
They're going to fail. Maybe if they're very clever they can delay their failure - six months. And then she'll have to derive the rest herself. Can she? Can Asmodia? If they get six months she thinks yes. If they lost tomorrow, she thinks no.
Failure feels unthinkable and not just because she'll definitely be executed about it. There's something wrong, in Cheliax, something they're doing profoundly wrong so they aren't unlocking people like Asmodia and Carissa, not using the most valuable resource that they have. She's the only person who can fix it and - if Keltham understood -
- he'd flip out about Hell. The rest he could maybe take in stride but he'd be all upset about Hell and refuse to work with them further, and -
- Ione's halfway to being the same way -
- not the time. Buy them a month, buy them another, then figure out how to work with whatever you end up getting.
"Me neither! Because obviously if something like that existed you'd erase it from all the books and not tell anybody about it!"
Ione stalks off herself. The Queen of Cheliax is among the things she does, in fact, still find scary, because no matter how much sense it wouldn't make for anyone to torture her to death, maybe the Queen does so regardless. Knowing that being scared of the Queen makes that more likely doesn't exactly help.
Nethys has predicted all of this. Nethys probably doesn't care, very much, but for the Queen to torture Ione to death wouldn't serve Nethys's purposes in an obvious way. If Ione sees how that would cause a very large and interesting explosion, maybe then she'll start to worry. She just has to hold to that thought.
...does she fall apart if she actually knows the Law that forbids her from convincing herself of anything? Well, now she has something else to worry about. Yay.
Well. At least one thing in her life is going right.
Carissa takes out a notebook and writes down ideas for reasons Keltham wouldn't need a headband, in case the Grand High Priestess wants her on her way out. Otherwise she will go do Meritxell's debrief and then go to bed.
Asmodia startles up from her scrap paper, the current pages covered with less interesting and powerful numbers than pages previous, along with new notation she invented that probably doesn't make any actual sense. She didn't have time to check whether it did. Fifteen minutes isn't really much time to think about anything.
P( e4 ◁ e3 ◁ e2 ◁ e1 )...
"Most High," she says, and hurriedly rises up so she can prostrate herself.
She's going to have to give the Crown back now. She's been trying not to think about it.
"Rise."
"Security. Give her a Fox's Cunning."
Even as it speaks, the husk of the Most High moves to tap the rising Asmodia with an Owl's Wisdom as well.
Kindness? Don't be absurd. Both spells will still wear off. The plan simply calls for Asmodia to remain intelligent and articulate while speaking to the reincarnate Aspexia Rugatonn.
Even so, as the Crown of the Most High is lifted from Asmodia, she can feel herself diminishing, the awareness-of-Asmodia shrunk, the force of personality and Splendour that drove her vanishing like so much smoke.
She does not protest, and perhaps die; Asmodia has somewhat to live for in Golarion now.
"I expect Sevar to be impressed once I have had time to explain to her," Asmodia states. In this, she is confident; she will be very surprised if Sevar's assessment does not back it up. "I solved seven problems that Keltham left to us, the seventh was the key to the game of deceiving dath ilani as I had thought it would be, and we made some progress on the most urgent issues of that game with myself wielding that fragment of the Law of Probability, which I had completed myself as mathematics from Keltham's hints in words."
"I suspect I failed at your problem. It is possible I could do something given more time, which I do not expect to receive."
Asmodia says it without very much fear; she has made a lot of evident and verifiable progress on what was said to be the more important problem of the two, and she was told she wouldn't be harmed if she showed prudence.
"I tried to think of clever solutions to the posed problem using the Law of Probability, but everything I thought of that way ended up seeming stupid to me, like something that wouldn't save the three-year-old in the dungeon in reality. In reality, the only solution I can see is 'just actually follow your instructions'."
"I tried to invent a new notation, which I'm not sure makes any sense, for the probability that one event leads to another, and leads to another, and leads to another. You'd want to, if you could, keep to the paths of high probability, where, if one thing happens, something else must inevitably follow after that, in order to make you easier to steer. But if you disobey your instructions to do that, that makes you harder to steer. So it boils down to following your instructions again. It's the job of the adult calling directions to steer you onto more predictable paths, not yours."
"If the child in the dungeon was more than three years old and could talk with the adult beforehand, or you could talk with the being who has almost no time to talk with you, you could arrange in advance for them to know that you would, if you didn't know what to do next, pick the path where you thought everything from there would be more predictable to them, if you thought they could see that path at all. But if they don't know you'll do that, you're making their job harder, not easier."
"- not by you, child. I won't hurt you. Don't be afraid."
Aspexia smashes one hand into the wall beside her. Stone cracks, her hand does not.
"Am I being mocked? This is what it takes? This? There was no mathematics in that, whether incomprehensible to me or otherwise! There was no brilliant Law she had uncovered! The asexual out of Keltham's tropes is just able to answer anyways, because she is favored of the tropes? Half my life I searched, and that is the answer? The only answer, I now have little doubt, after seeing it, that I am ever to receive? Do the tropes think it wise to mock me so? Do they think I cannot find a way to injure them in return?"
"Yes, child," spits out Aspexia Rugatonn. "You answered as rightly as anyone except myself has ever answered. You answered perhaps better, for in all my shrieking specific corrections at others, over, and over, and over again, I never once managed to articulate in words the principle that if Asmodeus had thought you able to pursue the greater goal from knowing it He would have told you that goal and not the specific instructions."
"If any seventh-circle priest of Asmodeus had answered me so, I would have appointed them my successor upon that very spot, had a first-circle cleric so answered, I would have taken them as apprentice, and now - and now -"
"What you have is not teachable. It is not Law. You have it because you are Keltham's asexual, not because you are his student."
"And you are not loyal to my Lord. Do not bother denying it. You could never take my place, even had your soul not already been bought away. You fear Hell, your one wish was oblivion in its stead. So in time I will die, and leave instructions to my hapless successor to consult you on all such matters and never once trust you, and if you do serve faithfully you will be granted Abaddon at your life's end as you wished. Rejoice, for you will receive all that you ever wished for."
To Aspexia, Asmodia's detected thoughts are flickering between presence and absence in a strange way, as if she is with augmented self-discipline quashing some deadly thought over and over again, fast enough that it never manifests at all.
Asmodia's visible thoughts include that she might not want to spend her life as the next Most High's advisor, that she'd rather teach and be rewarded as greatly - or rather rewarded more, since the gains to divide would be higher - and that Asmodia does think this ought to be teachable, though you might have to start with mathematical talent far above average for a priest of Asmodeus.
It does not take more than an instant for Aspexia Rugatonn to master herself. "Speak on," she says, sounding emotionless in lieu of many possible emotions.
"Keltham doesn't talk to us constantly using numbers. Maybe if he was speaking in his native tongue, he would, he often complains of how poorly suited Taldane is to thinking. But when he was illustrating the Law of Probability to us in lectures, and needed an example with numbers for that, he had to reach back days earlier to an event that occurred when he asked Ione for a book. If he was thinking in those terms every minute, he wouldn't have needed to reach that far back. But he is still a dath ilani even when he isn't using numbers."
"Thinking using the Law and the Law's numbers reshapes even the thoughts that you just think in words, with no numbers at all."
"When I talked about the adult telling the child the goal, instead of the instructions, I was thinking, in the back of my mind, about - things I'd tried to write to myself in the notation that probably doesn't make sense - about paths of probability from one thing that happens after another - and I was thinking, the adult could just tell the child about the last thing in the chain, and not the steps there, if the child had - the right version of the thing that describes the steps."
"I don't think... no, I'm sure I couldn't have answered you that way before I met Keltham, even wearing your crown. I would have - invented clever things in words, and tried to see if one of those was what you wanted. Not tried to invent clever math, and seen that all the clever math failed. It's easier to see when math is bad."
"Ah. I suppose I owe the tropes an apology, then."
"I will look about those priests who might otherwise be suitable to take my place, to see if there is a mathematical adept among them. If you can indeed teach them to be my suitable successor, you may have your last reward the day after, as you will, or at the end of your days after a glorious life."
The mission is not actually optional, nor would failure at it be tolerated, but these things need not be said aloud while Sevar's strange experiment is in progress.
Asmodia bows her head. "Acknowledged," she says. All her thoughts are consumed with trying to restrain the continuing fear and have fewer of her thoughts be unreadable shit she did it again needs a distraction. "The headband that Project Lawful requested for me? At least +4 Wisdom, and anything else that can be found, including Splendour? It is very needful to keep Keltham deceived a little longer, and the more of his Law we possess, the more likely I am to be able to teach -"
Aspexia Rugatonn is aware that she has performed suboptimally. It happens to her. More often than ten years ago; she is getting old.
She ought to be happy, overjoyed, that there is now more of a prospect of being welcomed into her Lord's embrace without that proving utterly catastrophic for her Lord's interests.
If she'd found Asmodia thirty years earlier, she would have exulted.
Now it's like finishing some long-awaited work of revenge on somebody you really really wanted to torture to death thirty years ago, and while they're finally screaming their last, all you can think about is how much you wish you'd gotten this when you first wanted it, and how much the way you got it wasn't the exact way you spent thirty years dreaming of.
"Stay," says Aspexia Rugatonn, and exhales a long breath.
The tropes gave her Pilar, for which she might be grateful if she knew gratitude to anyone except to her Lord. The tropes gave her Asmodia and that is, in the end, a blessing, however bitterly delayed. For all the uncertainty surrounding both of their purposes, it is not - entirely unsuggestive - that the tropes are not as hostile to Lord Asmodeus, as might be expected from a dath ilani romance novel; and that is an encouraging thing.
"What exactly did your curse say to you, on this occasion?"
"Nothing, I just found myself outside this door, believing that the person inside could use a piece of cake."
"I told my curse earlier in the evening, when it tried to tell me that Paxti needed cake, not to bother me about things that it thought would be beneficial to me, only what would be beneficial to Lord Asmodeus. So I thought - when I found myself here, with the impulse to knock - that it would be the right course to knock -"
"I have an unusual request for you," Carissa tells Peranza. "For the next two hours, I want you to try to think about things that people in Cheliax - not you specifically, necessarily, but it's allowed if it's you specifically - lie to themselves about, things that dath ilani Cheliax will have to handle differently since dath ilanism makes self-deception difficult. If you are confused about this instruction, I can give examples to start you off."
Something in the back of Peranza's mind is trying to scream in terror about this being a suicide mission that ends in execution for heresy and then a worse time in Hell afterwards.
Peranza squashes the heretical thought. Obviously Asmodeanism is not, cannot be, based on lies. Anyone who said that would already have fallen into heresy. This is about lies such as heretics believe, or, at any rate, those who are not perfect Asmodeans.
The part of her that's internally screaming manages to prevent her from asking for any examples, even though she doesn't understand at all. Probably the point of this exercise is to see what she ends up understanding, right.
"Acknowledged," says Peranza.
(If Sevar has a Detect Thoughts up, or is on relay with Security who do, she might be informed that Peranza's thoughts are not full of understanding.)
Carissa gets that on relay from Security and wants to scream. "When you are explaining things to small children, you might say 'the Sun is a big ball of fire', even though my understanding is that technically the Sun is a different thing than the contents of the Elemental Plane of Fire. Not the truth, just the closest example they have the capacity to grasp. Many of the things we believe are the version for mortals of truths that mortals can't fully understand. Does that make sense."
"Ione, who is a heretic and therefore wise in the ways of heretics - maybe, maybe she's just being stupid, we'll see - thinks that when we all start learning dath ilanism, we'll start questioning the version-for-mortals we're given, and we can't go to a priest for counsel because our worries are going to be ones outside the space of normal mortal errors, and then we'll end up in trouble. We are trying to get out in front of that, by finding all the possible errors we might run into, now instead of in front of Keltham."
The screaming inner terror is back! But it's not an agonized mess of aborted thoughts because she has a clear if wordless path to follow: just list out things she's unclear on such that it's only light or at most moderate heresy to claim they could be unclear, then wait to have whatever horrible thing happens afterwards happen.
Operating under conditions of screaming inner terror so long as you can see a way to apparently-sincerely-to-yourself obey orders is a universal Chelish life skill.
"Understood," Peranza says, more firmly this time.
Well, they'll see how this goes.
Carissa isn't trying to invent her own list. It feels much easier, somehow, to answer the question 'how do I keep these girls loyal when they're having heretical thoughts' than to answer the question 'what things do I believe that aren't actually true'. Since then, you know, she'd stop believing them, and if she stops believing them then the project fails and everyone dies, so, perhaps she'll invent dath ilanis without being one herself. Fine.
"Then why would you want to go to Hell now instead, if you could continue to serve Lord Asmodeus in Golarion and still be received by Him later?"
...it's actually easier to say this sort of thing and sound terribly sincere, for some weird reason, now that she absolutely doesn't believe it at all.
"It might help if you explained why you were asking me that." She has a suspicion, but not a certainty, and she would have formed the suspicion faster if her mind was not filled with thoughts of how slow and dead her mind feels now. Losing +4 to Intelligence is 30% like dying; losing +4 to Intelligence, +6 to Wisdom, and +4 to Splendour, by extrapolation, is 105% like dying.
Does Sevar - not believe, any more, that Asmodia was given a secret to keep by Hell itself? What the Abyss is Sevar thinking? Asmodia should, perhaps, have just showed Sevar Gorthoklek's message - has she screwed up, has she failed her unknown Patron -
And then Asmodia's thoughts move faster, and calmer.
She is not what she was, but she remembers.
Asmodia did figure out, she is not stupid now, let alone then, she did figure out that Aspexia Rugatonn's question might be about how Asmodeus sees a mortal worshipper. And then Asmodia didn't mention that part at all, because she'd been clearly instructed not to think about the why and just solve the question itself.
The tropes, if they are real, are not mostly-blind like Asmodeus. The tropes can see precisely and navigate precise futures.
Then Asmodia can perhaps reason that what is happening now, was intended to happen. And if the tropes see not perfectly, but still far better than Asmodeus, Asmodia can reason about ideas like keeping to more predictable paths, and the tropes will know what she thought about it, if she thought a sufficiently predictable thing... but Asmodia would have to think more on this new form of the Most High's question, before she dared anything like that, preferably think with more Cunning and Wisdom.
"Give me a quiet minute to think," Asmodia says. Maybe it's already too much of a giveaway, saying that. But Sevar clearly considers the away already given, and Asmodia does not get to dispute that, for she has already lost that game.
But suppose nonetheless that Asmodia has not failed her Patrons yet, by events coming to this point. What then do her Patrons desire of her? Asmodia cannot guess, and she has been given no instructions at all.
Look inside herself? Act on impulse? Would that help her Patrons, would that help the tropes, is she easier to steer if she acts on predictable impulses and lets herself be subject to frequent correction, rather than trying to hold fast to a course where she does as little as possible? Asmodia needs the crown back, and longer than fifteen minutes to think.
She has not been given instructions. Perhaps that is because she can deduce the goal and because her own thought can prove adequate to reach it.
The meddling gods - who might be below real tropes, or above fake tropes, or both at once - do seem to want Project Lawful to succeed, or keep going at least for now. They could have let Nidal smash it, or a sword take Keltham, they did not.
Then -
"All right, look, Sevar should not actually have told you that, given what she believes, but what happened to me in Hell did suggest that Project Lawful girls might get special treatment. Might. It might have just been something they did for me because I was the first Project Lawful girl they actually got to see. They grabbed me away from the standard bad painful situation my contract devil put me in, stuff happened I'm not talking about, but at the end I was put somewhere I'd end up in good shape when I got back, which I don't think is at all usual."
"I don't know if that works for you if you're not staying on the Project, I would not advise dying just to test it, I'm not sure that Hell would be amused," or her Patron, for Erecura did say that the price that had been paid was very high. "But if what you're looking for is a tiny shred of hope that Sevar is right about anything, fine, yeah, that happened."
"I wouldn't rely on it, so my advice is for you to stay on Golarion for those hundred years, if you can. If Hell is even better for Project Lawful girls than for everyone else, you can always go there later."
Nefreti Clepati does not prostrate herself before the pharaoh of Osirion. Nefreti Clepati casts a very powerful illusion of herself gracefully prostrating herself before the pharaoh, and stands at the illusion's feet, smiling cheerfully at the pharaoh, who is a powerful enough cleric in his own right to see through it. But his guards aren't, and anyone who might carry away rumors is not, and it's not, actually, a fight the pharaoh of Osirion can afford to pick with Nefreti Clepati. He needs her more than she needs him, and they both know it.
"We need a scry done by someone powerful enough to overcome Aspexia Rugatonn's caster level. There aren't too many people that powerful in the Inner Sea. Do you want.... the contents of the buried pyramid of the Pharaohs of Ascension? We have a lead on where it is. Some spell diagramming notes dated to Nex? Azlanti ioun stones?"
"Is this about - worry about being constrained in receiving context from Nethys, that's been a concern or us, but this plan was conceived of and made by my foreign affairs team without input from Abadar either in my person or otherwise, and we're not intervening, we're just looking, in order to adjust our probabilities on war with Cheliax in the next ten years. Priestess, you don't want to see Sothis fall. And the pay is very nearly anything that I have and that you want."
"Oh dear, we did do this conversation in the wrong order, didn't we, and it's my fault, for trying to get to the end of it sooner, when we can't do that, you have to walk through all the parts. It makes sense that you, not being omniscient, are nervous. It seems like it would be very nervewracking to not be omniscient."
The pharaoh of Osirion is much less inclined to casually murdering people who annoy him than not just the Queen of Cheliax but nearly any noble in Cheliax. This doesn't speak particularly well of him; it's a very low bar.
The pharaoh of Osirion finds himself, to his alarm, contemplating the murder of the High Priestess of Nethys in all of Golarion. Luckily, he reminds himself, he couldn't do it if he wanted to.
"I would like to hear more about the bird," he says pleasantly.
"We don't give in to threats because if we predictably give in to threats, everyone will threaten us. We occasionally spend money to solve problems that look like threats, if they're not threats and we have some way to verify that they're not threats. If the bird genuinely isn't here to get money from us - just landed here randomly - and isn't staying because it thinks it can extort us - then maybe we pay it to go away, because that doesn't get the city swarmed by hundreds of copycat birds."
That was fucking nerve-wracking.
And who was she even talking to? Nefreti Clepati was distinctly not looking in the direction of Cayden Cailean's hidden presence when she turned around to look at that angle.
Why isn't Otolmens freaking out about her, Cayden Cailean doesn't know.
Asmodia consults with Paxti and the others about their alterCheliax reactions to being fired, often interrupting Sevar with further questions about how alterCheliax needs to look to appeal to Keltham, but still taking slightly less Carissa Sevar time than if Carissa Sevar had needed to be present for the whole thing.
Neither Asmodia nor Sevar are actually getting any downtime tonight, realistically speaking, but Cheliax expects that of its upper management, even more than do fast-paced dath ilani startups.
What are they doing about Asmodia reporting to Sevar on solving Keltham's problems 1-7 and having comprehended the game between dath ilani? Asmodia wants a report on her awesomeness moving quickly to the Grand High Priestess so she can get a headband again soon.
If possible, Sevar should at least appear to make her own run on the Law, it'd be alterCheliax-weird for her not to do that, given what Asmodia has seen of Sevar anyways. How far Sevar gets with her +4 headband will be a good proxy for how far Asmodia could have gotten on Fox's Cunnings. Asmodia should not show up tomorrow being visibly no-longer-entirely-not-a-dath-ilani, that did not happen in alterCheliax.
Then, Asmodia proposes, once Sevar has taken her own run, Asmodia can show Sevar how much more progress Asmodia made with +4 INT, +6 WIS, and +4 CHA. And Sevar can report to the Grand High Priestess that Asmodia actually needs more than just +4 Wisdom in a headband, even if they have to send somebody to Hell temporarily or turn them into a statue temporarily, so that Asmodia can have their headband. It's super important to Project Lawful. The fate of Cheliax and maybe Hell itself depends on it. Whoever has the third most powerful headband in Cheliax after the Most High probably isn't doing anything that important.
Carissa doesn't actually feel like she needs downtime. She does feel like she's playing to her weaknesses, rather than her strengths - the thing she's good at is understanding Keltham, and going off even very good gut intuition for that isn't going to stand up against him, so they need the whole tapestry and she can't be the whole tapestry. Project management is not a strength.
Also apparently after two days of project management you start to pick up on its attitude of 'ugh, wizards'. Which she doesn't endorse at all, because Asmodia is completely justified in wanting to be smarter, in a sense it's the only want that's justified at all. "I'll give the problems a try, but even if I am persuaded that you on a headband is a massive asset to the project, I'm not going to make that request and if I did it'd be denied. Wizards make that request whether it's actually necessary or not, see, and you have absolutely no idea what whoever has the third most powerful headband in Cheliax is doing but it might be 'winning the war with Nidal'. And your loyalties are questionable."
Asmodia doesn't regret asking. You want to keep pushing until you get a 'no'.
Maybe she can figure out who in other countries would probably have a very powerful headband and could most easily be killed by a half-dath-ilani.
Also, Asmodia's loyalties are not questionable. The Grand High Priestess personally declared that Asmodia was not loyal to Lord Asmodeus. This settles the issue; to question the judgment of the Grand High Priestess is heresy. Hahaha.
Peranza's current thought processes would make fascinating reading from a dath ilani perspective, once the dath ilani stopped screaming, which would take a while.
She now works on an important secret project where her thoughts are being read a lot compared to Ostenso wizard academy. In principle, that's not a huge difference because, even when you're mind-read less frequently, they can just ask you if you've had any bad thoughts since your last review. Still, Peranza is very aware that somebody could be reading all her thoughts literally right now, and probably is.
One might consider that there is an obvious way to look at things where Sevar just told her that everyone's Asmodeanism is based on lies, and Keltham is going to tell them the truth, and then they'll all be executed as heretics for believing him and go to Hell and be hurt very badly. Not eventually, this week.
Peranza is not looking there.
It's not that she's safe if she doesn't look there. It's not that she's better off if she doesn't look there. She's just not looking there. This is not a thinkable thought. It cannot be processed. It is detected by several early-firing bad-thought-detector pattern-recognizing heuristics, well trained by previous punishment, and shut down before it gets into her stream of consciousness and becomes a problem for her next Detect Thoughts review.
What Sevar said is causing a lot of early-bad-thought-detectors to fire simultaneously.
Peranza, then, consists of whatever is left.
It's proceeding in fits and starts and not uncommonly runs into all cognitive avenues being blocked simultaneously, whereupon Peranza's incipient wordless awareness that she's no longer convincing herself that she's trying to follow orders becomes stronger and stronger and more demanding until finally, in desperation, she thinks something anyways.
A more experienced member of the Inner Ring would not have put an Outer into this position, unless they wanted to cast Detect Thoughts and watch the Outer's verbal thoughts tie up in increasingly tight knots and circles of not having any available pathways for safe thinking and then, presumably, have some fun punishing them for doing their assigned task poorly.
Peranza is supposed to list out, not her own heresies for Sevar to correct, obviously, Peranza wouldn't be willingly thinking any heretical thoughts, obviously, she's supposed to look at other members of Project Lawful and determine places where incipient heresies might be (such as can be listed without damning herself). Only she's also supposed to list out places where Peranza thinks she might be confused, and it's supposedly okay to admit you're confused, only Sevar called those lies, which means everything has to be screened for how bad it would be if whoever got this report jumped on Peranza and asked if her listing that thing meant she thought it was a lie.
Not that Peranza is allowed to think any of that out loud, either.
The first item written on Peranza's report is that Ione Sala seems to think it's okay to worship Nethys which really seems very confused and definitely like the sort of thing where she might get even more confused listening to Keltham.
After this is not written that Sevar herself is also an enormous glowing heretic, but those thoughts are safe to think, you don't have to be a heretic yourself to notice that Sevar is a heretic. So Peranza's calculations about how it would be stupid to list this item in a report that Sevar reads, and Peranza's thoughts about Sevar's particular heresies, are all allowed to be in the forefront of her mind and actually thought to herself. Her mind spends quite some time there, where it's safe, before she is forced to move on by the increasing volume of the incipient-wordless-shriek of how she will no longer be able to pass a Detect Thoughts inspection on whether she successfully pretended to herself that she was trying to follow Sevar's orders.
She has to put down something. Even if it makes her punishable. She can't put down nothing, obviously you'd make the punishment for that be worse. Even in Taldor you must still get tortured severely if you deliberately disobey orders.
Peranza writes down that somebody else might get confused about why Asmodeus permits so many opposing gods to continue to exist and oppose him when they're so much less mighty than Him.
It's obviously going to get her somebody staring at her and asking if she believes Asmodeus is weak and that the part about Him being mightier than other gods is a lie and all she'll be able to do is say that she was trying to follow Sevar's orders and guess what other people might get confused about and obviously Peranza has never thought for a moment that anything the Church said is false she is just trying to follow Sevar's orders and guess what other people might think.
Peranza writes down that somebody else might get confused about why people in other countries, especially wizards who can teleport, don't all flock to Cheliax given its clearly greater benefits.
This is safer; if Peranza is asked if she believes Cheliax isn't really a better place to be, she'll be able to say, no, obviously the people in other countries are weak and afraid of pain, this is just something somebody else might be confused about.
Now she has three things, and the first thing about Known Heretic Ione Sala is visibly not really trying, but Peranza doesn't dare cross it out or recopy because that is the sort of thing Security will report and it is a bad look.
She needs more things to write down. She can't turn in this report to Sevar with only those things written on it.
Why do things have to be like this? Why does she have to hurt like this? Peranza is confused about that.
For a very brief moment, then, Peranza's mind remembers the silent image of Keltham's city of towering metal blocks, a teenaged boy's private apartment-mansion inside it, but an early-bad-thought-recognizer fires before she can think anything fatal in words.
(To be clear, this is not Peranza's worst day in the last month. It's not a good day even in Cheliax, but not the worst day of the month in Cheliax either. Nobody's breaking her bones or whipping strips of skin off her back right now.)
By the time two hours are up, Peranza has twenty items, and when she looks back and reviews them all at once she realizes in the back of her mind that she's going to die a heretic's death, if not right now then after following Sevar's next set of orders, but it's too late now and trying to burn the paper just means Security stops her after they see the intention and then things get worse.
Not that Peranza thinks any of that in words either.
She just picks up her completed report and gives it to Security to deliver to Sevar, with horrible nausea running through her that is no doubt the result of having spent so much time thinking about sickening possible heresies.
(The trouble with not thinking in words, the trouble with running entirely off pattern recognition to decide which next step is safe, without being able to calmly reflect on where the whole sequence of steps goes, is that sometimes you end up cornering yourself.
A better course of action given her beliefs would have been to fail at her task, and be tortured however much you get tortured when you tell them that you couldn't find it in yourself to obey orders because they were too heretical and you didn't want to become a heretic yourself, which is no doubt very painful, but not anywhere near as bad as going to Hell. This, however, would have required deliberate planning. The mind-without-words doesn't learn heuristics that steer you into that much immediate pain and visible failure on your next step.)
Carissa brings the paper over to her a couple of minutes later. "These are good questions," she says. "I think some people think of them and then avoid asking them, because they're worried on some level that the questions don't have good answers, or at least that if they asked then people might think they think the questions don't have good answers."
This is a much easier question to answer.
"That wasn't in the official background material, so if I had to answer right away and couldn't wait on an advisory from yourself or Asmodia, I would tell him that I don't know, but my guess is that the wizards on-site all look native-born probably because that helps with passing the Security screening. I've seen non-Chelish wizards in Cheliax ever but did mostly keep to Ostenso wizard academy while I was there, and I wasn't in a big town before then."
"It would be better for our souls to leave it at that, wouldn't it? But I think we unfortunately can't. All of these questions have real, good, satisfactory answers, obviously; devils aren't constantly afraid of heresy. Devils don't carefully avoid thinking about specific things. And we are going to have to become like devils in this regard because it's too late for us to be like -" gesture - "other people. Which of these questions would you be most relieved to know the real true answer to, an answer you can think about as much as you like because it's actually just satisfactory and thinking about it more brings you closer to understanding the will and greatness of Asmodeus?"
"You haven't been told the real true answers because it's been a very busy week and this is the first time we've had a couple hours away from Keltham. You're ready at minimum for the answer to every question that you're scared of thinking about, because we can't have you scared of thinking."
"Ione Sala thinks it's okay to worship Nethys.
There is - something of a realignment, happening among the gods, right now. It's hard to see from a mortal angle, but gods are doing Asmodeus favors who would not have been expected to do Asmodeus favors. Cayden Cailean gifted Pilar with the ability to track down every spy for Iomedae in Egorian, as long as she threw a party for them before kicking them out of the country, instead of executing them. That's what she was doing in Egorian. Broom's god - this is secret from Keltham, but permitted to know in the project - teleported every diamond anywhere in Nidal to Broom, at the same time as Asmodeus sent Maillol a vision saying we should set up near Ostenso where there's some kind of divine interdiction. Nethys warned us of the Zon-Kuthon attack.
It's hard for mortals to know for certain what the gods are doing. But there's a thing that would have been something a heretic might have said a week ago, which was: if Asmodeus is destined to win, why don't the other gods act like they know that? Why do they oppose Asmodeus? They don't have the excuse of being mortal and stupid and scared of pain; they should submit, if they see how it's destined to end, or I guess try to let Rovagug out if they're too opposed to submit. But in that we have the start of our answer - Asmodeus doesn't want them to let Rovagug out, and so He has left hidden from them the ultimate result He sees. When Good gods tell their priests that Asmodeus will not win in the end, they're telling the truth, as far as they know.
Or that's what was true a week ago. I think that Asmodeus is now beginning to show his hand. We are valued in Dis not for the work we'll do in this world, but for the work we'll do in Hell, where the gods do know that Asmodeus reigns totally supreme and that there is nothing to do to oppose Him. With more Law, it will be possible to create better devils.
That might seem like - an advantage, a substantial one even, but not a decisive one, not one that turns Cayden Cailean against Iomedae and has Nethys serving Asmodeus in the absence of prophecy. Do you see why it's a bigger advantage than that?"
Peranza doesn't gape, since such reactions are suppressed by default in Cheliax.
Is all that even slightly true -
But maybe it is true, Project Lawful being what it is, the answer is maybe yes, it's not like they haven't seen Pilar with the cake, Peranza was there when Ione called her warning, and they were told about the Cayden Cailean thing before any of these issues about heresy came up -
"I'm not sure I understood the question, sir? Is the question, why being able to create better devils is a decisive enough advantage to make Cayden Cailean and Nethys believe in Lord Asmodeus's inevitable victory? It would just be, because with better devils Hell gets stronger and wins, right?"
The flash of horror that goes through her at the thought is buried very very deep.
"If you just make a devil a little better than any anyone has ever made, then that devil will be able to get even better at making devils, and make one a little better than that. And get better at the process, not just the result - think how much mortal running-around-in-blind-panic would be prevented if being shaped into some kinds of devil didn't hurt, so we could just tell everyone who's scared that they can be that kind instead."
Wryly: "it'll probably still hurt the way this conversation is hurting you. But I believe maybe mortals, if it was just that, could muster their courage and go gladly to it.
With better devils you could have a summoned Keltham in every classroom, teaching all the children Law, which devils right now don't understand in such a way that they'd be able to do it.
And all we have to do is make a devil which is just a little bit better at making devils - which is, in a sense, a kind of teaching, a kind of shaping, the precise thing this project is doing.
Ione Sala shouldn't worship Nethys, and you shouldn't start, but it's not threatening the way it was a week ago, any more than it's threatening that I venerate Dispater. Because Dispater works for Asmodeus, and Nethys does too - not fully, yet, but it's not surprising at all that Nethys, who sees farther, was the first to see it. And Ione believes Nethys to have charged her with helping the project succeed, and with making it visible to Keltham that the project has the backing of many gods - he'd be suspicious if it were just Asmodeans. He told me yesterday that he was tremendously relieved Cayden Cailean was backing us, since the fact Good gods too support this project gives him confidence in it.
What a gift, which Asmodeus could not buy, if He weren't going to win!
Why did Cayden take Pilar, and not anyone else, to Elysium, if He is Good and wants to save people from Hell? Anyone else might have been tempted to stay in Elysium - it's all right, you can think it, many people would be tempted to stay in Elysium - and that would have been a cruel thing to tempt them with, when Elysium will fall soon anyway; Pilar was the one who was done no cruelty, by showing her. They asked her at the end if she wanted to stay and she said 'no' and they said 'we knew that would be your answer'. She is meant to bring that little that Elysium has to teach us with her to Hell. And someday it'll be fine to worship Cayden Cailean, too, as it's fine to worship Mephistopheles."
There's a flash of contempt -
There's a flash of contempt openly in Peranza's thoughts. It's safe to think that Sevar is a fool, because the Security reading her thoughts will be thinking that too. If you look at the way Cheliax is set up, that Hell is set up, you'd have to be a fool to think they'd ever make devils in a way that didn't hurt. The people of Cheliax are not that lied-to, they are openly told that Asmodeus's domain is tyranny and that the cruelty they endure is pleasing to Him. You couldn't pray to Him if you were that mistaken about who He is.
"Why believe Hell would go along with making devils less painfully?" Peranza says. It does not take heresy, it is not an executable offense, if you suggest that Hell likes hurting you in the course of your correction. The corrected deserve for the correction to hurt, and the weak deserve to suffer; this is the doctrine of Hell. Peranza has had to whip her classmates, and practice torture spells on children with no other uses, to make sure she experiences it from both sides, just like any other wizard. Even if they could make devils painlessly, they wouldn't.
"Because I think it might interfere with making them think. I observe you all to be terrible at thinking, except Pilar who doesn't mind it. I would love to teach you how not to mind it. But I don't have that figured out yet, I'm not Abrogail, who did know how to hurt me in a way that made me better and stronger and worthier, and I can't promise people 'look, we'll hurt you in a way that makes you better and stronger and worthier', because they've never had Abrogail and on some level don't believe that that's even real. So if all goes well, I'll have my own collection of souls in training in Hell, and I'll figure out something better than paving stones to do with the ones who fall apart when they get hurt. Yes, they're contemptible; yes, they deserve to suffer; yes, it'd be better if I could figure out how to both deliver what they deserve to them and make them into something useful. But everyone's trying at the first thing and no one's trying at the second.
Do you want to know what Hell conveyed of Asmodeus's will for me?"
"Not in full, I don't think. But I thought all the strange and doubtless mistaken things that I think, and He chose me, and He called Keltham my teacher; that we're meant to understand. Ordinarily it would be very stupid and pathetic to imagine that Hell is in an error we have the power to correct. I think now it is ambiguous, whether it is stupid and pathetic or not. If we succeed, Peranza, if we build Civilization on Golarion, then this ambition of mine to fix those souls Hell turns into paving-stones is small next to that, and I will be permitted it. If we fail then we'll all be worse off than if we'd never tried this, because we got halfway to Truth and ended up in a big muddle of heresy."
Half of that prediction is certainly credible. (Probably fine to think this; Security is no doubt thinking the same.)
What would Ione say about all this if Peranza asked her
What would Pilar say about all this if Peranza asked her? (Pilar is obviously strong in her faith; to wonder what she'd think of something is a permitted thought.)
A daring thought comes to her, more daring than has come to Peranza in a while; a thought that might get her punished, and yet, it wouldn't be execution for heresy, and that punishment would show Sevar's hand and relieve a lot of frantic anxiety about how real the promise of reduced punishment actually is. "I think - the sort of question you're talking about - that somebody might be afraid to ask - would, for me, the most important question would be - why can't a devil tell us this, that Hell would go along with your plan, and swear to that in Asmodeus's name, and then we would know it was no heresy" and that the hope was real (actually you can just think that, Security's also skeptical of the truth here) and that Sevar's promises were remotely credible.
"Very reasonable. So I'm going to mark this as - not satisfactorily answered until we have a devil to tell everyone the bounds of what I can get away with - the problem is that junior devils aren't going to know for sure, and I can't actually casually command the time of senior ones. But I'll figure it out."
"I now, on the one hand, regret ever mentioning to you that the pharaoh's crown was a thing, and, on the other hand, regret much less that I didn't try on that headband myself. Maybe, if we consulted with more senior wizards, there'd be a way to extract some of that conviction from me, and directly infuse it into Keltham -"
"Given that he just got Raised, Maillol should be asleep right now. His Ring of Sustenance won't kick in much before ours do. So I'm batching them up and before I check with him I will write down my predictions with probabilities for each question, like a good girl. Which Keltham will later tell us is a training exercise for dath ilani, I predict with 99% probability." (Asmodia did try to adjust her confidences downward after Keltham warned her that 99.99% was too much.)
"I don't think Keltham said to use probabilities then, so I get to count that."
"Look, we're drifting off-topic again, probably because of something to do with the ratio of time we've spent awake to asleep over the last day. Did you say anything important while my attention drifted off?"
"Asmodia, listen to me. If this were a temple of Nethys and I were in charge, this would be the point at which the experienced fourth-circle cleric of Nethys tells the first-circle cleric of Nethys that she is clearly on an exciting journey of the mind full of new ideas, and she's going to be locked in a nice safe cell with no weapons or spellbook until she finishes takaral."
"And that's the point where the high-ranking Asmodean sets the low-ranking Asmodean on fire. Yes yes you're not Asmodean, fine."
"Look, I'll try to put the Law I'm using into words, you may well be able to follow if you pay attention. What we're trying to avoid doing is letting Keltham narrow down a single Conspiracy world that he can figure out. We want to do things that make internal sense in the Ordinary world, even if they might seem sort of weird and complicated there, but which would be more complicated and hard to square up internally in the Conspiracy world. Yes, there's ultimately a world where that all makes sense, because we're living in it, but we want to make that world hard for his mind to narrow in on, and when we use weird complicated logic that's inconsistent with the logic we've previously used, that helps us so long as it's less weird inside the Ordinary world."
"The fact that we told him about Cunning and headbands isn't good but it also means that we were stupid then, and now if we do something very complicated and smart and clever about it, even if Keltham thinks of that possibility, it won't match up with our previous stupidity in telling him about Cunning at all."
"You don't get it! Yes, Keltham can think that we just planned the whole thing. But, if Keltham imagines a masterful intellect," like the one she has now, "the part where we previously told him about Cunning and had to execute the whole clever plot in the first place won't make sense. The villains in dath ilani books will be smarter and more competent than we previously were in the actual Conspiracy world."
"That's the loss condition we inevitably reach eventually, where Keltham has enough information to figure out the exact world he's living in, but we can make that harder for him. He won't jump to that conclusion right away. It's like - putting extra coinspins on top of duck for lunch, merchant ships coming in from Absalom instead of merchant ships from anywhere. A more complicated idea is one that he has to assign lower probability to start."
"And Keltham isn't a perfect dath ilani. It may be possible to confuse him enough and win. If I have a sufficiently powerful headband, and he doesn't use any enhancements himself, I mean."
"Right now, Keltham has seen evidence that, if the Conspiracy is real, it's not actually that competent, because we weren't. The first time we do something smart, before any other time he's expecting us to be smart, we've got to get as much mileage as we can, out of that, because afterwards he'll be on the lookout for smart things."
"And besides getting him not to use enhancements, you yourself said that the most confusing thing we could do to him -"
"No! You were right! Righter than you realized! Right now, all Keltham's attention is on the idea that the Conspiracy world is trying to make him believe he's inside the Ordinary world. On the simple truth, exactly where we don't want it. At the very least we want to make it be complicated for him."
"So we make it look like he has Ordinary adversaries trying to falsely convince him the Conspiracy is real, and then he has to doubt all the evidence and not just the evidence we'd rather he didn't doubt. And if the Conspiracy faking the Ordinary world faking a Conspiracy is exactly what they do in dath ilani romance novels, then those villains would never have told him about Fox's Cunning."
"Well the ship of apparently simple and believable stories has sailed, what with Cayden Cailean handing out cookies. And even if it hadn't, Keltham is a dath ilani. He's going to think about things no matter what. All we have is a choice of what he spends his Conspiracy-decoding time trying to decode."
"Keltham wakes up tomorrow, is allowed a chance to pray first - we don't want to let him pick out spells after he knows what he'll be doing with them - and probably do some other things, eat breakfast, we can't time it precisely to after he prays. Suddenly there's an emergency, no, they're not supposed to say what, he gets rushed straight to Maillol's office."
"Maillol says that he realizes exactly how stupid this is going to sound -"
"I'll be sure to give you full credit for all of your ideas."
"Anyways, Maillol tells Keltham that he suspects they have an enemy upstream in Egorian, one who got their hands on, at the very least, yesterday's transcripts. Because the day after Keltham talked about his Conspiracy analysis and told Security that if there was a criminal investigation he wanted to be in charge, even knowing that was tempting the tropes, there's now a dead body in Gregoria's bedroom, which looks like a suicide but that's not hard to fake and there wasn't any obvious reason for her to do that. Last known interaction was that Gregoria finished preparing spells and then requested a simultaneous Fox's Cunning and Owl's Wisdom early that morning, to see if she could solve any of Keltham's homework problems that way after resting the previous night. She died sometime between then and a quarter-hour later, when Sevar tried to send a message to her about her availability for a morning meeting with Keltham."
"Keltham predicts that truthspells aren't going to turn up any murderer for some weird reason. Maillol says yeah, and he bets when they hear back about Gregoria getting Raised or contacted in Hell, she has no idea who killed her, and he wants Keltham to be really fucking cautious about interpreting anything he sees here. Somebody may be trying to fake the appearance of what Keltham seemed to expect."
"You would have walked out after the Cayden Cailean candy thing because you're a Golarion native who knows how weird that actually is. Keltham will walk out after Maillol tries your line on him, because that will be the point where Keltham recognizes that he's inside the classic hilarious maneuver that dumb dath ilani kids think up the day after they find out about the Law of Probability."
"Fine, you don't get it, shut up about not getting it."
"I think we can rely on Keltham to worry on his own that it was maybe actually just a simple regular suicide, as searching through the whole installation fails to turn up any clues or even anything that was meant to fool him. Then we find out that Gregoria is supposedly refusing resurrection and can't be scried or contacted in Hell, which freaks Maillol out and Maillol says he just has no explanation for that unless Gregoria's body was faked and this is a kidnapping. Then unexpectedly two days later Gregoria is able to be Raised, and back with no memories of what happened, and Hell has been successfully contacted but says they're not answering any questions about anything."
"Keltham not only gets wary around Fox's Cunning - which was not what the Conspiracy was trying to make him believe as the whole point, obviously, because in that case we'd have just never told him in the first place - he also concludes that it wasn't a faked-up story to keep him busy, because it ended up being the case that there was no apparent mystery for him to solve and no exciting clues to follow up. But the idea's been planted in his mind that maybe he missed something and maybe somebody is trying to make him believe in a Conspiracy."
"Whatever happened to the girl who incorrectly shot me down on grounds of being overly clever, back when I showed Keltham that the whole class wasn't too terrified to ask him any questions about his fascinating Conspiracy example? We need some way to suspend time inside this fortress for one month, and send you off to learn how to do all this in real life, and fail a few times somewhere it's less important than here."
"Failing that, I am telling you now in my capacity as Nethys's chosen one that this is a setup that is inevitably going to explode. Prophecy is broken - for everyone except me, I mean - and now Nethys alone can predict events in enough detail to be like, ah, yes, I will do this exact thing, and then Keltham will think this exact thing and react in this exact way. The only way I'd buy this plan is if a god signed off on it."
"All right," Carissa says to Peranza, when they've gone down the list. "Last thing - I swear that everything I've said to you in this conversation has been true, as far as I know. I don't have satisfactory answers to everything, yet, but I mean to find them, and bring them to you - all of you - so that Asmodeans can be dath ilani. And if you think of something else I don't have a satisfactory answer to, you bring it to me so I can try to find one. If you wake up one day and realize that you aren't loyal anymore, you won't die for it, assuming you don't actually undermine the project - we'll just keep looking until we can answer whatever pulled you away.
And if you undermine the project you will die terribly for it whether you're a heretic or not, so. All understood?"
"Understood," Peranza says from a place of inner numbness that is mostly not processing any of the many many words it has heard.
Peranza has now been thoroughly retrained to find any ideas about questioning Asmodean orthodoxy, or any thoughts about the relationship between that and dath ilanism, to be scary and painful and possibly leading to death and Hell. Future thoughts anywhere remotely close to matching this pattern will be immediately shut down by early-bad-thought-detectors.
This will probably be pretty effective at preventing problems for a while!
"I developed a cunning plan to make it look like somebody in the Ordinary world was trying to trick Keltham into believing in the Conspiracy and tropes, so he wouldn't only be questioning evidence that points in a direction favorable to us. The Cayden Cailean snack service which suddenly showed up claimed that my plan is unworkable, and that Ione already did some key thing a few days ago needed to make a better plan work. Now Ione is trying to list out every choice she's made about Keltham and see if she can figure out what the fuck Pilar's curse was talking about. I'd recommend not distracting her while she's working. Pilar's curse also says it can't do this reliably and don't rely on it."
"I don't suppose you're ready to hear my report on Law of Probability which, also, the Grand High Priestess did like the way I performed in the last fifteen minutes too so if you're willing to deliver an accurately glowing report there's a chance I'll be able to get a good enough headband before this project collapses -"
(Asmodia looks kind of wired, like somebody who's been on for more hours and off for fewer than might be really wise.)
Overconfidence? Is that even POSSIBLE for a DATH ILANI?
"We should maybe step away from Ione and, before I start, how many of the seven did you derive math for, besides #2 I mean since that's basically already there, if you've already got formulas I can skip derivations on those and talk about meanings and implications -"
(They've now stepped into the next 'breakout room' over from Ione.)
"So #1 is, I assume you got this part stop me if you didn't, about the way that the implication-probabilities for all the different observations or things that can happen or different pieces of evidence you could get, all have to sum to 1, or no more than 1 if we're not assuming the list exhausts every possibility which in real life it obviously never can."
"Meanings and implications. A world or a theory or a way things can be, has a limited resource like money, like it has one gold piece total divided into a hundred coppers, which it has to spend on all the possibilities that it wants to claim credit for having predicted. I can't let you spin the coin and then say, Queen has 100% probability, Text also has 100% probability, that adds up to 200%. That's why they try to train dath ilani out of assigning more probability afterwards, than they would beforehand, it's why that's contrary to the nature of Probability's Law, if you assign more probability to a happening, after hearing that it happened, then when you add up all the probabilities you'd assign to all the happenings afterwards, you'll get way over 100%. Only if you do it in advance are you guaranteed to have it add up to 100%."
"Golarion doesn't understand that Law. Golarion doesn't know that Law. Which means that everybody who's got a belief in their minds, is looking at, whatever happens, and trying to convince themselves, sure, that thing there, that is just what ought to happen in the world I think I'm living in, that should happen with 100% probability. They'd say that for anything just the same. So if you try to - turn that back into coherent math - it says that every outcome has the same probability, and if there's five outcomes, maybe each of them gets 20%, after you're done telling somebody it can't be 100% for each. But 20% for each of the same five outcomes is the same as if you just said 'I don't know' for each of them, instead of, in every case, there being a clever way to twist things around to make it sound like that thing is totally what should have happened."
"The poetry Keltham quoted us for #1, I suspect if he said it in his own language it would rhyme, or there's a version of it that does, it had that feel to it, and I think I've got it memorized by now: Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything. It's not about how good you are at explaining away whatever happens, the only thing that - focuses, concentrates - the limited supply of what you can predict, into some predictions and not others - is that your explanations will sound more plausible for some things and less plausible for others, if there aren't some things you can't explain, that's the same as not being able to predict anything will happen, because you can't predict anything won't happen. Explaining and predicting are the same thing to a dath ilani, the degree to which a belief says, 'I'm great at explaining that, you should credit me for being totally compatible with that thing you saw', is, to the dath ilani, just the same number as the probability that got put on there, and probability is conserved, so you can't be equally good at explaining everything. To predict reality you have to be the sort of person who, if you were told a fiction instead, would go 'wait what I can't explain that thing how surprising' instead of coming up with a clever explanation of that thing you were told that wasn't real."
"Ione thought that only #6 and #7 were going to be deadly to Asmodeanism. She's wrong. All seven are going to cause problems if the others in class really understand them. Everything that people see, they're trying to explain how their version of Asmodeanism predicts that thing, so Asmodeanism can claim credit for having predicted it, but if they'd seen something very different, they'd predict that too. Keltham's world trains Keepers out of that all the way and it trains people like Keltham four-fifths out of the way of doing that, and when you've started practicing with numbers and maths for some things, it affects all the rest of your thinking, the way you think in words. I remember seeing it when I wore the headband, it was so vivid then and it's faded now but I remember what I saw, the way that - the beliefs inside me - were trying to warp and distort themselves and pretend to shove more probability into the things that they knew had already happened, that they'd never have predicted or never have predicted that strongly, and the more that people are lying to themselves the more that distortion is going to be holding all the lies in place while they try to suck the credit of being right out of whatever-happened by explaining it - and dath ilanism trains that out of people, Keltham's going to make people play some game and when they're done playing the game they'll do that less and then everything that was held in place before becomes shakier - if you had a headband like the one I borrowed, you'd be able to visualize the right Law as math at the same time you watched your own mind trying to do it wrong -"
(There's no obvious sign that Asmodia is ever going to stop talking about problem #1 in particular.)
She wasn't FINISHED but FINE "Okay but before we go on to Problem #2 you didn't get that far, right, you didn't get all of that without the more powerful headband I need, you can see I'm talking like Keltham and completing the Law of Probability and maybe I'm not really a dath ilani but I'm also not really not a dath ilani anymore -"
Carissa hits her. Not hard enough to knock her down only because she's a wizard and doesn't do a lot of hitting people with her actual hands and isn't that strong.
"Asmodia. You are not a dath ilani. You are in an altered state. This was conveyed to you, by me, ten minutes ago, but you did not listen because you are being impervious to information, which is not very dath ilani at all. I'm very close to locking you up until you sober up, but I'm curious if all this Law you've learned will let you react appropriately to this information all on your own."
Being hit is like a cold rush of water, interrupting the cycle of whatever part of her had won and won and been terrified by Rugatonn and then won again, and stayed to try to win more, and devised more and more complicated plans with Ione arguing but not actually authorized to hurt her, at some point she'd started thinking she was immune to everything and not just to Hell.
"I... suspect I need to try not to do anything for thirty minutes, maybe reading will work, I don't know, and if that doesn't work somebody needs to set my hand on fire for thirty seconds, and if that doesn't work somebody needs to hit me with a sleep spell for an hour. I apologize. I can show you the equation for #6 and sketch the theory for #7 but should not try to explain any implications."
Asmodia writes down the equation that a far distant place might call Conservation of Expected Evidence, and then, which takes longer, a brief sketch of the idea of filtered evidence and that P(they tell you about the 4th coinspin ◁ the 4th coinspin came up Queen) being a necessary item of evidence to take into account and not just P(the 4th coinspin came up Queen) in order to not violate Keltham's #6.
"There are important implications and I still think you should hear about those before composing a final version of your report to the Most High. But not having a headband for another day won't kill me, so long as I don't start thinking I can kill the pharaoh of Osirion to steal his crown, again."
She should NOT kidnap Keltham to trade him for the crown, even if she could. That is not what her Sponsor probably wants.
Asmodia goes.
She hopes it is possible for her now to function without a headband, as opposed to her previous wearing of an overpowered headband having left ideas embedded in her mind that only a more powerful mind is competent enough to contain without going mad - is that why there are Keepers -
She needs to not think about that. Thirty minutes, boring history of Taldor.
Maybe it was just being happy that did it. She's... well, in retrospect, she's never actually been happy before, not really. Maybe her mind just didn't know how to handle that inside.
...Asmodia hopes one of these days she can be really happy, somewhere that isn't Cheliax, and just fly away like that, safely, and return to the ground when she tires herself out, to sleep.
An hour before dawn she gathers the not-fired students and also Security around for the great big project briefing. She's already told bits and pieces of the whole story, to various students, as it seemed necessary to assuage various specific worries of theirs, but saying it in front of everyone makes it clear that she didn't select the stories she told them, and that they're insiders, now, among the very few in Cheliax who know what's really going on.
It's a long story. Her voice is getting hoarse.
"I was irritated, at first, about the rumors, but the judgment of people more experienced than I was that they are completely inevitable. This is, unambiguously, the most important thing that has happened in Golarion since the death of Aroden, and arguable the most important thing that has ever happened; we are at the center of it; our successes and our failures will not go unnoticed. The Queen is not only reading our transcripts, she is reading our thought-transcripts. One of the rumors is that every devil in Dis knows my name, which must be false, but all the contract devils do, necessarily.
Do you want your names to be known? Pride is one of Our Lord's domains; you may think, if you'd like, on what you'd do with money and power and titles and all else that would result from our triumph. But the path ahead is very narrow. We are not worth that much yet; it is simply the judgment of those wiser than us that we might be. And in deference to their judgement, I am doing everything in my power to unlock the value in you all, wherever it's found, and to build in Cheliax and if necessary in Hell a system that can use you to your fullest potential. It will succeed spectacularly, or it will fail spectacularly; there is no middle ground.
Go to your rooms and prepare your spells, and if you think of anything at all that might be a barrier to unlocking all the value in you, bring it to me. Dismissed."
And she has a bit of the post-combat high herself, at that, though she's not as childish as Asmodia, and doesn't show it.
Abrogail waits until not only the Security with appropriate combat reflexes, but the younger wizards who manage to be paralyzed with horror for half a second, have succeeded in kneeling.
"First. Many of my subordinates in the Asmodean hierarchy, from time to time, find it in their best interest to tell their own subordinates that their project is of vast value to Cheliax, to Hell, to Asmodeus, or of course, to me. In most cases they speak falsely, and in many of those, dishonestly. I don't consider this a flaw in my regime. If you are weak enough of mind to believe what you should not believe, you deserve what you get."
"This does create a problem of justified skepticism within those very rare projects that are of vast importance."
"I hope this problem to be easily corrected, when I say that I am not in the habit of visiting on behalf of those overenthusiastic subordinates to address their underlings and back up their stories. As, perhaps, a clever mind might expect some important people would do, if the project was actually important."
"Consider it confirmed from my own mouth and affirmed by my presence, that the Queen of Cheliax considers this project to be possibly vastly important."
"Getting information out of Hell is often harder than torturing it out of paladins. They will not tell us of prices in Dis, but we can learn buyers. Your new owners are of rarefied heights. It seems that Hell also considers you, and I do mean you personally, to be potentially important."
"With matters indeed being that important, after walking around and seeing the disarray things are in, I've decided that this project is not ready to resume operations today. You are not organized, you are not actually rested, you have not rehearsed your new stories, and you are not caught up on your paperwork."
"Keltham is currently a statue resting in his bed. This is not usually an option for deceiving important people, because they have some notion of the current date, and will notice if days suddenly go missing. In this case, nobody does seem to have informed Keltham of the current date at any point, according to his transcripts. Let's not tell him for a while longer unless he asks."
"The key resource that this project burns with every working day is not some timer in the outside world, but Keltham's time aware and learning. There is no point in spending that resource while you are not in good condition to make use of it. I do not think you should skip more than one day like this at a time, Keltham may notice that you change too much from night to dawn if you do this often; but for this day, and mayhap the day after Keltham's next true day, it will give you a chance to catch up while waiting on your Rings of Sustenance."
"The Nap Stack was a clever idea, dear little ambitious Asmodia. But you are not as yet any match for the cleverness of myself, nor Keltham when he puts his mind to it. And no, that is not a problem you could solve by stealing my crown from me, it is a skill that enhancement alone does not convey. The Nap Stack was clever, but it was not cleverness enough to save you had there been trouble. You are not ready, this minute, if Keltham starts taking matters seriously when next he wakes. You are not ready, even, if he asks for a Fox's Cunning while Ione has not yet solved her riddle. There is a terrible gap between being clever, and being clever enough. To contain and deceive Keltham you must learn to be clever enough."
"Use today to get better organized. Though each of you must actually get three hours' rest, this time; your Queen commands it."
"Oh, and also this:"
"While I have no intention of disturbing Carissa's experiments while they yet seem to be bearing fruit, there are limits to merciful experiments. Should you knowingly, deliberately, and unambiguously betray Hell's vital interests here, then, after you have been executed and your owner asks after your life, let them see this within your thoughts: That the Queen of Cheliax did instruct them in Asmodeus's name and as His incentive to make you suffer the most they possibly can, even at the cost of their own profit. Be it clear, I am not talking about the kind of betrayal you can accomplish by accident or while trying even slightly not to, I mean deliberately attempting to enlighten Keltham or selling out the site to Lastwall. With all the talk of diminished punishment going around, accompanied by other talk of pride and vast rewards, it seemed prudent to remind you that there are limits."
"If Carissa achieves even a tenth of her ambitions within her lifetime, if you contribute even the fiftieth part of the work towards that, there is not one Asmodean among you who could not be a Duchess in the new Golarion we would conquer. That in life, and after to be among the higher devils in Hell, coming to it already a being of Law. Though Asmodia, I'm given to understand, has already had jurisdiction of her own fate claimed by my colleague the Most High, which I will not dispute."
"As I confirm what Carissa told you of this project's importance, I also confirm what she told you of the rewards if you succeed, such as fall within the Queen's hands to give."
"Now you are dismissed."
The Queen of Cheliax is gone.
- petrify Keltham to give them some time to organize. Of course. Why didn't she think of that.
Because Abrogail is actually better than her, truly and actually better than her. She serves someone worthy in ways she can understand, not just in mysterious ways that aren't meant to make sense to mortals.
"If," she says with her voice mostly steady, "you thought I was lying to you, or exaggerating, that I had not absorbed enough of dath ilan to make this project Lawful in the manner in which its government is, well, now you know otherwise, and next time perhaps you'll think a little differently. Let's all go get some rest."
Keltham prays for his cleric spells, once again requesting a whole lot of Wisdom. There's no personality to the reply he receives, as there hasn't been since coming to the new site, nor any unrequested spells received; but he does receive all his spells and that hopefully indicates that his god is okay at all with whatever barrier has been erected here to keep out non-allied deities.
Over tea and biscuits yesterday afternoon, out in the yard because they're really not getting much sunlight while Keltham is active, Carissa and Maillol worked these out.
The options are:
There is another secret project that can accept second-circle wizards; the girls would have to be screened for suitability, and might not prove suitable, in which case they could pick one of the other options.
They can go to Hell for not longer than five years, shorter if Keltham and Cheliax agree they no longer know any state secrets.
They can go to the afterlife of an allied god, if they'd rather that than Hell and the allied god promises the same secrecy Hell could provide; the cost of this is hard to estimate, but it seems like maybe the kind of thing Cayden Cailean would agree to.
They can remain on site and get a tutor to teach them some useful and valuable magic, and interact socially with the core project girls; this might be healthy anyway, so the girls can have some friends and romantic partners who aren't their collaborators in a high-stakes project.
Keltham undergoes some slight blinks about the 'romantic partners' part - homosexuality is statistically-ambient three-people-you-know-personally in dath ilan, but biromanticism is rarer than that, though still not unheard-of (and of course statistical rarity is meaningless to social acceptability per se).
But yeah, those sound like basically decent options. Keltham will see how the nonretained wizards react. If it seems okay to them, that may be good enough. Otherwise he'll decide where to go from there.
For the onsite option or the other-secret-project option, is there a relevant wage quote he can tell them?
12gp/week minimum in both cases, which is 20% above the Worldwound wage for wizards with their experience. For the secret project that'd be a normal wage, or it might turn out to pay a bit better but not much. For the onsite project it'd be generous. But Cheliax does understand the concept of good incentives to suddenly volunteer on secret projects you might fail out of.
Have them called in, then... should he let them get breakfast first, or... no, because then they'll be around Meritxell and the others having to conceal their knowledge.
Please have them called in here individually once they've prepped spells or are otherwise available to be called, and please have snacks or light breakfast foods available to them when here in case they're hungry.
Time for the worst part of any startup-founding experience, including the part where your project site gets invaded by minions of a torture-god or... actually not as bad as the part where you worry 150,000,000 people are going to die because of you being there, nevermind, that was worse.
Who's in first to get fired?
Pela did her hair somewhat elaborately this morning, on account of waking up early. After extensive discussions with Sevar she concluded that alterPela would ask if this was decided already or if she was allowed to have a counterargument, so she's going to do that.
She didn't sleep much the last couple nights, but Keltham shouldn't be able to notice that.
People's one-week contracts are up. 1/3 of the wizards seem to be doing great at absorbing Law, 1/3 are plausibly on trajectory to form a productive second tier, 1/3 seem to be struggling. Pela's among the final third, and her options include looking for another secret project guaranteed to pay 12gp/week minimum, or 20% higher than Worldwound pay, or taking an onsite option here for 12gp/week and tutelage in some skill and continued interaction with her friends, going to Hell for at most 5 years or until the knowledge she has isn't deemed hazardous, whichever comes first, or her choice of other afterlives if say she likes what Pilar has to say about Elysium and Cayden Cailean is on board. Though Keltham admits to not knowing the details of how that would work exactly.
Sorry.
Keltham should have thought of his response to that question earlier.
"I should have thought of my response to that question before you entered, sorry again that I didn't... you can definitely first-order disagree, how likely you are to shift my first-order opinions by argument is a separate question."
"If you solved six out of seven problems from yesterday on your own before you walked in, and what I thought was the middle third only got five while trying on their own, that would - well, frankly, it would surprise me enough that I'd want further verification with more tests, but it would de-convince me of my current opinion, at least."
- headshake. "I only got two." She could've gotten more if she'd spent more time on it but Sevar said she could only have an hour, because if she could only keep up with Keltham time-stopped that'd have implications for the fabric of truth elsewhere. Sevar's gotten kind of grandiose about the fabric of truth.
"Well, if nobody else from the middle third got any -"
"I probably shouldn't say that, given how unlikely it is, in my estimation. Sorry."
"I am not expecting this question to succeed, but is there some alternate test or challenge that you would propose? Inorganic challenges of that kind are inherently biased, if you're there thinking your job is on the line and the others in the contest think their job is secure. But if you think you can not just match but outperform my median tier-2 researcher in some challenge, to make up for that bias, I'd hear of it."
If Pela is feeling disappointed right now, that is at least in part Keltham's fault for having not thought about this possibility, or more accurately, his having not wanted to think about this possibility, and not communicating clearly about that possibility. If Pela holds herself injured by all this, Keltham will hear her out.
"Civilization knows very well that people vary along that dimension. I wasn't going on talkativeness or participation or being the first to speak out, I was going on the problems that everyone was trying in parallel. I don't want to tell you names in advance of telling them, but when you see the complete list of who was over and under the threshold, it should be visible that the threshold wasn't based on how much you talked in class. I hope."
- 12gp/week generous salary to do something productive here on-site, if say she wants to stay close to her friends from school. 12gp/week is 20% more than the Worldwound would've been, but without the stress, any magical gains that would've come from the stress, or the implied reward of knowing she was doing something to preserve Golarion, if Pela has that much Good in her.
- 12gp/week minimum-but-not-by-much-if-at-all salary, if she's accepted by an as-yet-unidentified alternate secret project of which Keltham knows nothing.
- At most 5 years in Hell, probably less but no guarantees; after which, this wasn't told to Keltham explicitly, but he assumes this was part of the point, she can be revived at her current age, and get back on track to the Worldwound and increasing her wizard powers faster. Presumably that revival is at Governance expense? Keltham didn't hear that explicitly, but if it's not true Keltham will make a fuss and get it done.
- Keltham is not at all clear about this part, but apparently if, for example, Pela asks Pilar about Elysium and likes the sound of that, maybe some arrangement can be made with Cayden Cailean. Or any other gods that might be interested? Keltham knows basically zero about this but it's what they told him her options were.
Pela snorts. "Elysium's supposedly an infinite wilderness full of floating islands and fountains and so on. I guess it sounds all right for a vacation but if I'm going to be stuck for five years I'll have some civilization, thanks. I.... think I'm inclined to stay here? But I'll ask the others what they're doing."
"Understood."
"Thank you for trying. Someone had to, and take that risk, or something like this could never get done."
"That was all I had."
He'll forebear to jump on that 'infinite' part. He can ask somebody else later. To be clear, Keltham is very nearly certain that this is merely a mistranslation by people who use 'infinite' to mean 'anything large enough to break the measuring stick', and who don't actually mean to imply that they have excellent cause to believe that Elysium is larger than any number that can easily be expressed with nested exponentials or, oh, say, the fast-growing hierarchy...
Who's next?
Jacme, then Yaisa, then Paxti. Nobody else asks to be tested.
Jacme mostly just seems distantly sad, like she knew it was coming. Yes, she'll stay, her friends are here.
Yaisa doesn't mention anything sexual, and obviously neither does Keltham, but she immediately chooses to stay.
Paxti says that she'll ask more questions about that secret project, but to save her a seat in the fortress.
"Don't ask me what Cayden Cailean is thinking. I'm just suddenly there with the cake."
It's slightly nice, somehow, the degree to which Keltham immediately just takes the weirdness in stride. Maybe all the rest of Golarion is the same as this, to him, and 'suddenly Pilar' is not significantly weirder than any other part.
Carissa apparently has enough food for him too, and utensils. A bit odd, to try to guess his own exact food-desire preferences like that, but he'll give her guess a shot.
He'll go get the offered hug, and then sit down by her. "Done with hiring stuff. Went okay. How're you doing? Slightly more rested?"
"Yep, I slept in a little. And had a dream where you appointed Merixell duchess of Nidal because she happened to be in your bed when we conquered it, but, you know, slept restfully other than that." She has no idea what he'd want to eat but compensated by getting everything she's seen him take before.
Keltham successfully deduces that after realizing that otherwise Carissa would have needed to guess a food-intake need much higher than food-intake needs she'd previously observed!
(It doesn't occur to him to consider that food might be wasted thereby; Civilization tries to inculcate that food is cheap enough to throw away, and it's okay to rethink your food choices in the middle of a meal and throw stuff away and get other stuff, and not try to make like your past guesses should control your future preferences.)
"Good to hear. I don't usually remember my dreams for longer than a few seconds after waking, didn't remember last night's dreams either, though I know there were some."
"So Pela said something about Elysium being a quote infinite dequote wilderness. Is it conventional belief that Elysium is literally infinite, as in, for any number you imagine, it's bigger than that number? Or do they just mean the place was large enough to break whatever measuring instruments they used?"
"I think the gods told us, though also the properties of planes are directly study-able, for powerful enough wizards, including things like how space is shaped in them and how light from distant parts of them reaches us, and maybe some of that study is sufficient to know they're infinite, I don't know."
"Anyone got the gods' exact wording, there? For comparison, my home plane doesn't have a spatial boundary in any direction and doesn't spatially loop, but on the lower level of reality underneath that, there were limits on the size of structures that could exist and any two identical structures of entanglement were the same structure at that underlying level of reality. It didn't actually contain an infinite amount of stuff; it was repeating at a lower level than space looping around. If Elysium is infinite, nonrepeating, contains arbitrarily large entangled structures, and everywhere comprises a similar positive density of realityfluid, that literally breaks the Law of Probability I know."
"Right, so, the whole requirement of being able to say, here I am now, what happens to me next, the required premise of being able to ask if it is more likely that you see the coinspin landing Queen or see the coinspin landing Text, is that there's entangled structures of realityfluid where your possible futures are entangled with your present and the amount of realityfluid making up your futures is such that you can have ratios between the amounts of realityfluid in entangled futures. Like, you want to say that there's infinities you can draw ratios between, sure, but then you can just talk about the fraction that anything is of everything. Like, maybe for a really really large infinite universe somewhere that was among the simplest possible ones, that one infinite universe would be 0.00001% of the infinite Everything, but then you could just leave out the talk of infinity and talk about the fractions."
"Anyways, not an urgent issue. I just note that it implies, in descending order of probability, that you misunderstood your gods, your gods lied, your gods have no idea how the ass some parts of Law work, or Civilization managed to get some parts of the Law truly incredibly wrong."
"The crap I'm talking about is part of the border between universal truth and local truth, like, the universal truth about why there are any local truths or people inside those local truths to experience them. I mean, it's not like math and local reality are two totally distinct realms, there's a border where they meet. Knowledge about realityfluids always being ratioable sorts of things, since it's knowledge about that border, falls on the universal side of 'is that true everywhere'."
"Like, there's a difference between saying that this table is real - where it's just being real here, and not being real over there or in dath ilan - and saying that since the table is real it's necessarily ultimately made out of some stuff that is how real it is, and this stuff comes in ratioable quantities."
"Oh, and if you're wondering why everything I'm saying sounds like gibberish, it's because we're currently talking about 'anthropics'."
"Yeah, don't worry about that. The ratio between the amount of nondemon realitystuff and the amount of demon realitystuff is not going to be finity to infinity, aka zero. Even if surface reality looks that way, the underlying reality will be something else. You can tell, because we're not demons, which we would be, if there was probability 1 of being a demon rather than a nondemon."
Keltham has now consumed any food! He looks around to see who's present; is this a good time for general announcements about salary negotiations?
Keltham probably will further mention such common aphorisms as "Probability is how much you believe in a possibility, realityfluid is how much Possibility believes in you" and try to explain the general notion that 'anthropics' is what the nice sane straightforward Law of Probability turns into once you're creating copies of people, destroying universes too fast for anyone inside them to notice, obtaining outputs in the mainline universe from computations that only happened with very tiny total amplitude, or otherwise manipulating how much realityfluid ends up within overlying experiences directly instead of via the nice sane normal road where you work inside causality to make stuff happen.
Oh, well, as long as it's just that, then.
She's memorizing everything he says to talk over with Asmodia later but she doesn't want to suggest now that that carries anything more than academic interest, since the only reason it does is that Tropes Are Real and in alter Cheliax Carissa doesn't believe that. It feels like a minor thing, but there are no minor things, no bits of evidence they can afford to give away.
Maillol strides into the breakfast area, looking so openly pissed that even Keltham is able to tell this purely by reading his facial expressions.
"We have an organizational issue above us," he announces. "Not fatal, but urgent. Keltham, has anyone explained to you that in a majority of countries that aren't Cheliax, seventh-circle wizards and above often start acting like they're above the law?"
Now what. And what sort of tropes is it going to initially look like and then turn out not to be... where the heck is he now, inside Reality, anyways...
"It's been touched on," Keltham says. "I wouldn't say I really understand, but I get the general concept of high-circle wizards being powerful to the point where a not-very-Lawful government gives up on restraining them."
It's possible that he just knows too many tropes, can fit them to anything, and is somewhere else weird that he should be trying to decode from scratch.
"Quick briefing. A significant part of Cheliax's entire military potential is one eighth-circle wizard, name of Manohar, born to Chelish parents outside Cheliax and rumored not to actually worship Asmodeus - relevant Security would know for certain, that doesn't mean we know - who serves the Chelish government under a compact where his foibles and eccentricities are treated with more laxity than literally anyone else gets. Be it clear, he's not the kind of wizard who carries out dubious experiments on children, Cheliax wouldn't hire someone like that even at eighth-circle. He's the kind of wizard who carries out dubious experiments on adults. Not deliberately cruel ones, but not exactly safe ones either. He has to get permission from the subjects for any crazy experiments involving other people, but is very good at talking people into it."
"He gets, by compact, special treatment from Security allowing him to peek in on projects he decides are interesting - though he does keep those secrets, from everything I've heard. No mysterious leaks that nobody can prove were him. Cheliax isn't stupid, and neither is he; he never does anything bad enough that it starts to look commensurately bad with him not being able to singlehandedly guard sections of border."
"His compact says that any time he misbehaves badly enough that anyone else would be fired, he can't do anything like that again for at least a year, or he actually does get fired. Well, it's been a year and two months since the last time he blew up that interestingly, and I've received word that Manohar has found out that Project Lawful exists and has exercised his special viewing rights to look at our transcripts."
"I know. Keltham, context, Manohar is very likely a worshipper of Nethys and, regardless of whether he really is, the fact that everyone believes that is something like 70% of why I didn't tell anyone about my book-summoning abilities until I met you. Manohar is what most people think Nethys worshippers are like, especially people outside of wizard academies."
"I'm not allowed to literally give you this as an order, so consider it an extremely strong suggestion: Nobody is to agree to doing anything with Manohar if he shows up here, and, if he does, tell Security to call me immediately. Security isn't allowed to come get me as soon as they see him, but they can if he talks to you and you tell them to go do that."
This would be the downside of running your government in a way where, for the greater Good, you would think it was ever okay for somebody like Keltham to demand that Carissa to be given to him even if she didn't want that, because Keltham is so important. Well, it at least sounds like they didn't literally give 'Manohar' any women.
All right, trope-based prediction, Manohar can't possibly not come here. He'll target one of the four existing Special Girls, who needs to be protected from him by something that Keltham has to do in some way; or successfully persuade a new girl who turns Special after Manohar does experiments to her and one of those backfires, in which case the event cannot possibly be stopped.
Nontrope prediction, all other possible outcomes; favored within that, Manohar comes in and pokes around and annoys people but everybody sensibly tells him to go away and he does.
"Among my reactions to this is to want to jump forwards immediately on organizing Project Lawful more formally and signing our own contract with the Chelish government that recognizes Project Lawful as in part our own property, and thereby not subject in a simple way to compacts solely between Manohar and Cheliax."
"Good idea. Manohar shouldn't be able to get here too quickly, we're in the middle of a war and he shouldn't actually be deserting the front lines."
"Are you close to being ready to roll on that, Keltham? Or can you get a version done in the next hour? I'm seriously considering just suggesting that everybody should stick together in a group, if so. Not if it's more of a one-day thing."
It's at this point that Keltham notices that, like, you're not supposed to rush setting up your legal forms, or hurrying to sign a contract with a not-super-trusted partner, and that this situation could potentially be rushing him to do that.
And this does seem - well, everything here is so simultaneously alien and trope-laden that it all looks like a script on some level, about a world with economicmagic, but still, that Maillol-Ione interaction could be a script? Or does it just feel that way because nobody else is speaking up? Chelish people stay silent in class too, unfortunately. Ione is the one who ever speaks up anyways, and she's already talking.
"There were a lot of issues to be hammered out even in an interim contract meant to be replaced," Keltham says out loud. "What's the minimum content of a contract like that which would keep Manohar out?"
"Depending on whether Manohar wanted to get sticky about it, which I can easily imagine him doing - it can't look too minimal, sorry. Something that does set up the ability for Project Lawful to make any kind of contribution that entitles it to any revenue from the government of Cheliax which is then recognized as being owned by you."
"Up until five minutes ago I had maybe heard twice in the course of my life that one of our eighth-circle wizards sets a bad example of mature adult behavior and a great example of how much you can earn special treatment by being a good-enough wizard. I couldn't have told you that his name was Manohar, and if he identified himself to me like that, I probably wouldn't have recognized it enough to be cautious. I'd have assumed that if Security had let him in he was probably allowed to be there."
"Strange man knocked on my door and woke me up in the middle of the night, next to a Security that I did recognize, including by Arcane Mark. He said that one of, uh, Keltham's terms, the very smart people in Governance, presumably him in retrospect, wanted to look into what happened if you put an artifact-grade headband on somebody studying Keltham's Law. So he'd Teleported here from the front lines to get his nightly two hours of sleep - note for Keltham, sufficiently powerful wizards can compress their sleep down to two hours a day. He said the plan was for me to try on his headband, while Security sleepspelled him for those two hours so he wouldn't have to experience not wearing his headband."
"As far as I can tell, that actually was his entire plan, unless it had some second stage I didn't get to see."
"His second stage would've been that you did incredibly well, and then he'd let you lure Keltham into demanding to try that too, by your being such an interesting shining demonstration. Context, Manohar wouldn't be planning to usurp the rule of Cheliax at the end of this, he'd just literally be doing it to see what happened."
"I solved all seven of Keltham's problems where I'd previously only gotten up to #5. No, that's understating things way too much. I suspect I've basically completed the Law of Probability inside my mind. I want to try replacing Keltham for the next lecture, which I assume was going to be on the meaning of those seven problems, and seeing how Keltham says I do at that."
Okay, assuming either tropes, or the Conspiracy, Keltham has no idea whatsoever what's going on at this point. This is neither a recognizable trope, nor does it have any recognizable Conspiracy objective. This, of course, could be the sign of a competent Conspiracy, but then the interactions leading here would've had a better script to the point of not giving him that scripted feeling.
The problem with Golarion is that the Ordinary possible-world is so much more insane than the Conspiracy one.
Still, testable things can be tested. "Meaning of problem seven?"
"Uh, the evidence of somebody telling you about a fact has to be weighed separately from the evidence of the fact itself, which is how the rule of #6, about not being able to predict what the evidence you see will make you believe, manifests when you think somebody else is filtering what evidence you get."
"I reacted badly when Security took the headband off per prior agreement and put it back on Manohar to wake him up."
"I request to make the rest of my report in private. But it looks like I'm basically okay so long as I go on wearing the +6 Wisdom headband that Manohar got for me afterwards, and I observe that I expect this final outcome to be greatly advantageous for my study of Law and for Project Lawful generally."
"Asmodia, considering the sheer degree of what-the-fuck I'm expecting our honored guest is experiencing right now, I'm going to insist that Keltham be allowed to hear that report too, while you are initially giving it to me."
"Is there some very good reason that you did not tell Security to report to me before now?"
When they're more in private - though not all the way to Maillol's office, just a private 'breakout room' near the cafeteria - Asmodia finishes reporting.
"Security gave me a Fox's Cunning and Owl's Wisdom first, before taking off the headband, so it wouldn't be too much of a shock at once. And at first I thought I was going to be okay, it just - I sort of went successively crazier over time, riding some kind of developing high, couldn't get back to sleep. They tried slapping me to bring me out of it, which seemed to work at first, and I went to read for a half-hour but I could tell I wasn't normal at the end, so I told them to set my hand on fire for thirty seconds and I thought that had brought me out of it but it didn't, I told them to use a sleep spell on me for an hour and when I woke up I still wasn't normal."
"They tried Fox's Cunning on me first, which I think actually made it worse, but before dispelling that, they tried Owl's Wisdom on me and then I was okay again. And I was still okay after the Fox's Cunning wore off, but not when the Wisdom did. Boosting Splendour didn't change much either way there."
"So now I have a nice +6 Wisdom headband I should probably never take off again, which I maintain is a wonderful outcome for Project Lawful."
"Manohar said - by comms, he didn't come back - that he suspected an interaction with the part where I completed the Law of Probability while wearing the headband, like, that insight had actually reshaped my mind somehow and it couldn't function at my innate Wisdom anymore."
"I don't especially buy that it was the Law of Probability part, myself. I remember this huge rush of happiness and - glory - while I was figuring everything out, which, I thought at the time, was just my being really happy about figuring out all of Keltham's problems and completing the meaning of all the math and seeing the world the way Keltham sees it."
(It's feeling more real, maybe just because the shock is wearing off, or maybe it's just that this part particularly seems more real -)
"No. No headbands there. We don't know what happens when you boost a mind way up and then take it back down again."
"All I can say is that, if her brain did rewire itself to need the boost to go on working at all, I'm not surprised it was the" cognitive reflectivity "Wisdom part rather than the Intelligence or Splendour parts."
"I am absolutely not happy about this, Asmodia. Your implied inability to wear an Intelligence headband, unless and until somebody obtains an artifact-grade headband which boosts both Intelligence and Wisdom, is a serious loss to your future career as a wizard and your potential usefulness to Project Lawful."
"The thought had occurred to me that you seemed to be expecting that. But - and I realize that Asmodia may well have guessed this part - Civilization's view of what she did may be substantially different from the Chelish one."
"Not saying I'm not going to come back in an hour and tell you to do that. But I need to talk to Carissa to - get to grips with this entire thing."
Yeah. She does.
And did even before the Most High delivered her the Wisdom headband, to learn so that she could teach.
In the end it didn't seem like something they should gamble on hiding from Keltham successfully; and the advantages of Asmodia being able to wear her new headband openly, after true events that didn't happen in alterCheliax, also seemed large.
It wasn't something they wanted to attribute to the Grand High Priestess trying experiments on Asmodia without asking Keltham, or, by the same reasoning, to any nonrogue part of Chelish 'Governance'. The resulting plan wasn't one that anybody was happy with, but nobody had anything better by the time the next day came around.
"Combination of +6 Wisdom and knowing the Law of Probability, I expect. You'd kind of expect that to make a person sound different, I think, already in the... what's the dath ilani name of the probability before you've seen any evidence to shift it with."
"The Security who knew wasn't allowed to tell Maillol, or so I now realize, but he was allowed to wake me up and tell me what was happening."
"And you asked that because you were wondering how the - it's so weird, I can tell that my language needs all these words it doesn't have - the way that probability is spread out over when Maillol gets to the dining hall, the way that probability spreads out for my getting there, they'd have to be tangled up, or they wouldn't match -"
"Am I seeing it? Am I wrong that I'm seeing the way you see, now?"
"You'd have had ten messes like this one if I hadn't been running myself ragged for the last week trying to keep everyone else out of your hair."
"Having this happen to us does earn us some amount of informal political credit for being the ones to take the Manohar hit, like, you don't pick on the people who just had that happen to them. I wouldn't expect another event like this tomorrow. Another week, who knows."
"The stronger your Project gets, the more results it produces, the more politically able it becomes to defend itself from this sort of thing. I'm saying that in part for my own benefit, but it's your benefit as well. Having an identifiable interest in the Project who's not just the government of Cheliax is likely to help on future things too."
"I think it basically - worked - I haven't gotten the last couple minutes of thought transcripts but he's not hard to read and he parsed none of that as a conspiratorial attempt to turn him off intelligence enhancement, he was too busy being sad for you - bad news for the plan where we get him to ever be even vaguely Evil but good news for the objective." She exhales deeply. "I want an item of Glibness. Is that known to be possible to do - it ought to be, the reason wizards can't cast it is it won't stabilize -"
"Basically worked is charitable," says the eighth-circle wizard called in from the front to read Keltham's thoughts during this dangerous attempt. "All of you children require additional acting training before you try anything like this again, either that or call in real fucking impersonators to replace you. Keltham intuitively felt that some of your interactions sounded scripted, especially while you were describing events that hadn't actually happened and things that are not true. He wasn't confident of his ability to tell that through the dimensional-travel unfamiliarity, but he noticed. You weren't interrupted on it because my best judgment was that doing so or warning you would've made it worse."
His name is in fact Manohar, just in case; one less lie.
He is not a Nethysian.
He doesn't confine his experiments to consenting adults.
She holds out her hands for the transcripts. "Yes."
(There ought to be a way to make it slotless if there's a way to do it at all; the conventional wisdom is that slotless is a lot harder in addition to being more expensive, but Carissa thinks that's because everyone is a coward. It's not even harder, it's just more complicated.)
All right, set aside the question of why he's feeling sad about Asmodia; it's plausibly-enough some mix of 'you never got to know the old her' and 'this isn't how you imagined yourself starting Civilization' and 'are you less special as other people master more Law' actually that's too uncharitable it doesn't feel like that kind of sadness, 'you wanted it to seem newer and brighter somehow and not just Civilization repeating itself' well it could still be that but Probability is going to be the same everywhere so obviously Asmodia's going to start sounding more dath ilani as she starts to use those ideas, you can't deny them that, Keltham, just because you want them to go on feeling to you like the fresh new world of Golarion -
Set it aside.
How likely was that whole Shenanigan in the Conspiracy world, versus the Tropes world, versus the Ordinary world.
It feels like a wrong question, somehow. Something was anomalous about that; and it didn't feel like Conspiracy or Tropes.
Why did the interaction between Ione and Maillol feel scripted? Is it just something about the way that real Cheliax reads to a dath ilani, something that rhymes with fake permanent cheerfulness in class, with Carissa trying to act during sex like everything is all right? Permanent cheerfulness is not a trope, it has no clear Conspiracy objective, it feels fake and it is fake but it's not meant to be deceptive.
Can he put his finger on anything about why the interaction felt scripted?
It felt rushed.
Counterarguendo: It was an emergency. They were rushing.
It felt optimized for making sure Keltham heard everything he needed to hear.
Counterarguendo: Everyone talking knew that he was going to be surprised and alarmed and were, in fact, optimizing heavily for making sure Keltham didn't freak out about their back-and-forth.
It felt too clean, like, giving that everyone had been doing their parts separately to keep him informed, there should've been more stumbles and messiness in their conversation.
Counterarguendo: Keltham has had plenty of smooth conversations both here and in Civilization wherein nothing obviously disruptive or messy happens for up to five minutes at a time, and this was less time than that.
It felt coordinated, like everyone had worked together in advance on making sure that all the information they wanted Keltham to see was present in that interaction, and finished its delivery exactly when Asmodia showed up.
Counterarguendo: Hindsight, Keltham; would you also have said that if Asmodia had walked in the room right before Peranza said anything, or would you have said that if you'd also gotten a chance to hear whatever the next speaker had to say?
WELL IT INTUITIVELY FELT SCRIPTED, SO THERE.
Counterarguendo: WELL META-INTUITIVELY YOU'RE ON SOME COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PLANET AND YOUR INTUITIONS MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SO THERE
He could make up numbers, probabilities, but that itself feels like the wrong move. This doesn't feel like Conspiracy vs Tropes vs Ordinary, it feels like the real hypothesis is not in his starting set.
If Keltham just goes purely on intuition...
It feels like Asmodia had an Event last night that changed her outwardly apparent personality and gave her mastery of Probability, an Event they weren't expecting and one that they were flatly prohibited from explaining to Keltham, and then they had to frantically scramble to make up a cover story for that and weren't very good at it.
Keltham doesn't remember exact wordings but, if they were expecting to need to pass a truthspell test later, among the things they could do, if they were truly desperate, was call in an eighth-circle wizard named Manohar from the front with the reputation Maillol described - a reputation Keltham possibly finds slightly more sympathetic than the Chelish seem to, that guy is living his best life - and have him act out the events they described with Asmodia, so that she'd be able to tell Keltham under truthspell that it had all happened. Either Maillol, Ione, and Asmodia are in on it and the others not, or also Pilar and Peranza, and, it sort of hurts to think but, probably Carissa too at that rate, because they'd know Keltham might turn to her for advice.
Does he actually believe that scenario?
The prior here is kinda low.
It's low in Conspiracy and it's low in Ordinary. It's higher in the Tropes world where Asmodia may still be due to acquire a Special Background. Her whole deal would never go in a Civilization-original eroLARP, fine, but neither would a lot of other things in Golarion. Maybe call them pseudo-tropes, fork off a theory where they look enough like dath ilan tropes to be initially recognizable but they're not the same tropes... that hugely widens a prior space that was already way too populated with potential patterns. But maybe the theory will start to make sense over time.
Something else happened to Asmodia, and they had to frantically scramble to cover it up.
Can he figure out what else would probably be true in that world, and how to test it?
Aaaaargh why is he like this. They should have left him petrified until they had the Glibness, never mind that those aren't available for sale anywhere, Carissa can do them herself. WIthout retraining into Wondrous Items, she doesn't have time for that. She can do them as swords. - too late now.
She needs to be ahead of Keltham instead of behind him for once. What else would probably be true in that world. That isn't about a Conspiracy. .....well, if they're deceiving him and bad at it they probably feel avoidant and guilty, that's a potential direction to take, figure out what Actually Happened and then have them get caught in a lie, demonstrating they have no capacity to fool truth spells...
Keltham's heading right on back. You know, never mind concealing that he noticed, to see if they give themselves away more, that's too bad for trust if he's wrong. He's just going to try asking some questions under truthspell, ones that try to rule out anything sufficiently awful or emergencyish having happened, but if there's actually some incredibly good reason for him not to know about the thing immediately, then fine.
He considers opening with "You know, if there's some actually good reason for me not to know what really happened to Asmodia, you can just say so and it'll be a lot simpler than this," but that's destructive of trust if he's wrong about all of this, which he's definitely still at over 50% on.
"Acknowledged." She feels sick to her stomach but can at least manage her outward expressions - better than before, with the added Wisdom, even if it's not Splendour, and definitely well enough to fool Keltham as he is.
There is something she didn't get previously about 'being more confused by fiction than by reality' and she thinks it's meant to have a very literal sense, one that she maybe missed for thinking of all the wonderful equations, one of just stepping back from everything and asking whether it has a feel-of-reality or a feel-of-fiction, only, only it feels like that wouldn't work for her, yet, if she tried it, she wouldn't be able to see what Keltham saw -
She wasn't ready. Whatever she is now, it's barely emerged from its eggshell. She shouldn't have tried something like this against a mature dath ilani.
"I'm back."
"Everyone, I'm sorry for this, but I think it's better to clear the air than for me to quietly swallow concerns."
"Asmodia, are you okay with answering some questions under truthspell? Your employment with me does not depend on it; I cannot, unfortunately, make an honest promise that I'd manage to ignore the update implied by your refusal of it."
"Understood."
Tap. Symbol.
"Are you the same person I first met who looked like you and introduced herself to me as Asmodia, in the sense of having not been replaced in body or mind by some other person who existed separately from the previous Asmodia when she first introduced herself?" That should get most of the doomy cases he's actually worried about, while permitting the one where her mind or body went backwards in time by however long, in which case yeah they could have legit temporal shenanigan reasons to desperately cover that from him, but should also probably be implicitly notified that he did think of the possibility.
"Nothing external came in and did that, apart from - mastering the Law of Probability, rethinking things, seeing new opportunities. Nothing like a Suggestion spell. I want Project Lawful to be able to keep doing what it's doing. That was true both before and after the event that you keep asking about and for the same reasons."
"Sorry. I want to tap you with a spell-based Owl's Wisdom and then try on your headband myself, very briefly, to see if that headband actually feels like +6 Wisdom." It's occurred to Keltham that, given the supposed rarity of +6 headbands, if something happened to Asmodia that augmented her directly, giving her a fake headband to cover up her augmentation might have been something they tried to do. "You can decline, but then we'll have a conversation about how if there's something you think I need to not know for good reasons, you need to just tell me that, seriously."
And Ione, extrapolating a possible tactic forwards, finally gets Cayden's riddle which really might have saved them all an awful lot of trouble if she'd gotten it earlier but - no time to ask permission she'll just have to -
"Nethysian advisory, Keltham, are you sure that's a good idea? You've got a lot more Law in you than she does, and it might not take an artifact-grade headband to -"
"I already tried Owl's Wisdom once when I was learning to catch cantrips, remember? And, yeah, had something of a not-great reaction afterwards which is why I'm not mainlining it all the time, but if +4 for eight minutes didn't get me then +6 for a few seconds should be fine."
"I express that, in my own interests, I would actively like to see Keltham try on my headband for six seconds in order to reduce distrust here. Given what happened to me, I think the odds of six seconds of just +6 Wisdom with no other Cunning or Splendour or thinking about anything interesting, doing any permanent damage, are extremely low -"
"Keltham, Detect Anxieties, that your god gave you, gives a read on everyone in the room's Wisdom, and does that even if they're resisting the invasive part. You could check Asmodia with the headband on and with the headband off, to confirm she has a normal human wisdom with it off and 6 higher with it on, and she can block you on reading her anxieties. Also if you look at the headband with Detect Magic it's obviously the thing Maillol is wearing but more powerful but I've had spellcraft since I was ten and don't actually remember how obvious it'd be when I was new at it."
"That... is a very sensible suggestion on the face of things, and the problem is, the fact that you suggested it means that, in worlds where more people were in on it along with Maillol, Ione, and Asmodia, you'd be suggesting that to me out of a dozen other equally plausible possibilities a Golarion native would think of, because those are the two possibilities that Chelish governance can easily defeat, where they couldn't defeat me trying on the headband."
"Sorry, this genuinely isn't meant to indicate - anything personal - it's just how Security reasoning in Civilization works. If this comes up again, try telling me that you think I already have the tools to solve my problem and I need to try to think of it myself."
"Also I didn't prep Detect Anxieties today. And if I wait until tomorrow, then on the it's-all-fake hypothesis Asmodia will have a +6 headband then."
"Okay. I vehemently argue, in my own interests, that most people are incredibly fine after doing something like this. The sole reason we have to believe that Keltham is vulnerable to what happened to me, is on the theory that my understanding of Law was responsible. If that's true, which I am not discounting to be clear, 40% maybe, then it should require thinking about Law and doing that for longer than six seconds in order to do the damage."
"Six seconds of +6 Wisdom blowing him up is not going to be the kind of bad thing that actually happens in real life, like Keltham was saying before we needed to learn how to distinguish. It's not even something that happens to one person you know."
"I... basically buy that. All right, let's proceed, after twelve seconds for more objections if any." Under other circumstances he might not, but it's occurring to him that maybe something is being hidden here and then maybe that thing is important. At the very least, he wants to see if he somehow gets stopped before he can actually put the headband on, after Asmodia apparently argued so hard for that.
"I was not going to say this unless it looked like you were really going to do it anyways, because it is still not safe but -"
"Um. I mean, Keltham, you might have the tool to partially solve some of your problem here, but I don't know for sure whether you do -"
"Actually, I'm not sure if this is a thing where dath ilani Security means I'm not supposed to suggest it."
Keltham mentally reviews all of his spells.
1st-circle. Truthspells, Fairness, Sanctuary, Comprehend Languages in case Share Language fails on him.
2nd-circle. Keltham didn't go all Owl's Wisdom on his 2nd-circles, today, because some people being fired did free up some space there. And the obvious contingency 2nd for emergencies, to put in the freed-up space -
"You think I should do an Augury first."
"YES I REALLY THINK YOU SHOULD."
...because she decided, some days ago, not to tell him about the 4th-circle False Future spell that can spoof Auguries, when she was listing 4th-circle cleric spells she could 'remember'.
They could've just warned him to try that before getting Fox's Cunning cast on him, given his previous bad reaction to Owl's Wisdom.
They did not, really, need the rest of this.
And now she has a decision to make.
Should Augury tell Keltham to try on the headband, or not.
There is some chance that when he tries on the headband he'll realize everything. His not trying on the headband is safer, that way.
But if she were Keltham, at some point she'd take a step back from all of the details and check - did he get to test whether Asmodia's headband was +6, or did he not. And if the answer is that he did not, that's strong evidence that someone didn't want him to. It moves probability towards all of the worlds where someone had a reason to let him not. And it drags along - Carissa's credibility, Ione's, truth spells', now possibly Augury.
No.
It reduces the odds of losing right now but it's a losing move.
Give him 'neither weal nor woe', she thinks.
"We'll revisit that question if I get a null result. I will state out loud that I'll consider that suspicious and then probably proceed anyways."
Keltham takes a moment to consider various probabilities in advance. Augury, in one sense, seems definitely very easy to spoof; they could precommit to doing something bad to him if and only if he tries on the headband, whereupon the Augury returns a doomy result and Keltham therefore doesn't try on the headband and they don't have to follow through on the precommitment... well, except for the part where Augury is noisy and they might have to follow through, but if they cared enough, they could do it and take the expected loss.
Probability of the Augury just failing inside the Ordinary anti-hostile-gods zone: 30% maybe? Actually, should be higher because sometimes Auguries do that anyways. No, lower, because, as he's just realized, Pilar's cake thing still works and he'd expect that to run off a similar mechanism.
More importantly, Ordinary probability of the Augury returning 'doom'?
Tiny. He wouldn't have been set to do it otherwise. A negative Augury here will be a very large update.
...actually no, they're noisy, but still.
Keltham quickly takes the headband off her, puts it on his own head, leaves it on there long enough to verify that yep this sure is like the Owl's Wisdom he remembers but maybe 50% stronger than that, and puts the headband back on Asmodia.
"Okay, check passed, that was Owl's Wisdom but half again as strong."
"Don't worry, everyone, it's not that he's inherently like this all the time. He'll need to do this sort of thing less and less often as he narrows down which world he's inside."
And nobody here had better fucking forget it. This was not a good day for Project Lawful, even if Keltham seems to have mostly pointed in some new wrong directions. She's starting to appreciate on a deep level, these things cumulate and not just in ways that Keltham thinks about in numbers.
"...yeah. What she said."
He's worked out why he's sad now. It's like having a toddler you were intending to raise, and then somebody puts an artifact-grade headband on it, and the next day it's talking in full sentences without you ever having had the chance to teach it more than a few words.
"Be that as it may, 15 gold a week is not going to cut it. To be clear, I'm not talking about the consequences of my personal decisions, I'm talking about all this Project Lawful weirdness in the first place, my not blinking at the sudden truthspell just now, the fact that I'm going to deliver this morning's Probability lecture in your place and literally nobody else on Golarion could, and that I come with a +6 Wisdom headband as personal equipment. Anything less than 50 gold a week for me is downright disrespectful."
One of the problems with Project Lawful is that - it feels like Ione sometimes, and Asmodia now, are just aliens. Not even the same way as Keltham, who knows that he's an alien and tries to compensate for it, some other and mostly unpleasant kind of alien. Predicting Keltham is hard, but not impossible: he's Abadaran, he wants to know that everyone who happens to pass in front of his nose is okay, he's paranoid. Asmodia and Ione are different unpredictably alien kinds of aliens, and what they care about is entirely incomprehensible, and they think that they're not aliens they're just smarter than you.
All of this to say that Meritxell hopes Keltham tells Asmodia she's fired, though obviously he's not going to. Asmodia is really annoying, see. Meritxell's pretty sure this is objectively the case and not just jealousy.
"That's an awful lot for a second-circle wizard, as I'm given to understand it, but I suppose you now have a sufficiently vital role on this project that I do want to keep you happy. Is 50 gold a week going to make you happy? Will you be positively cheerful about that, Asmodia?"
Okay, you know what, Manohar's Detect Thoughts has run down, he's not bothering to cast another one, and he's going to show himself invisibly out and then write a scathing report to the Queen about this clownshow operation, in lieu of slowly burning a number of different people here to death. He truly does not want to listen to especially this part of this shit for one minute longer. Asmodeus ought to smite this place.
Bluff in general, no. Skill Focus: Trolling, yes.
Keltham turns to address the group; Paxti and Pela have been brought here too, now, and have been standing back and staying quiet with a permanently slightly cheerful expression which, it is only now occurring to Keltham, must have been concealing nearly total bewilderment, unless somebody briefed them while he was out, which somebody hopefully remembered to do... anyways.
"So, the announcement I was planning to make before we all got distracted."
"Bad news first, four of you have already been notified that the rate at which you're absorbing Law was, in my judgment, not sufficient to keep up with the speed at which I intend Project Lawful to go. You remain the brilliant high-Intelligence wizards who were considered good candidates for this operation in the first place, but that doesn't correlate perfectly with aptitude for Law, either here or in Civilization. All of you took the risk that it might not work out, when you came here, and some of you won that gamble and some of you lost it."
"Some of those leaving the main Project are currently planning to stay in this fortress and work on some new project - thereby among other things allowing those who stay on Project Lawful to have some people in their cohort they can hang out with, who are not quite as close to the center of all the craziness. Others of those departing say they may explore other possibilities, but are considering that one as well."
"I don't know how people express gratitude here for having meta-successfully completed the hard work of trying at something you're not sure you can do, and failing, and giving up when the time comes - as one must be able to promise to yourself you will do, says a proverb out of dath ilan, if you're going to dare to try things like that in the first place. This attempt, in particular, is going to have more of an impact on their lives than most such, and now it's up to everyone remaining to produce results which justify the risk they took and realized. In Civilization there's rituals for this, but they're not single-person rituals and I don't want to pause to explain and it should be your own way anyhow - so, however people in Cheliax say thank you as a group and not just individuals - may the rest of us all please thank Jacme, Pela, Paxti, and Yaisa now."
...well, he can't join in on that one, he doesn't have Dancing Lights at the moment. And stamping his feet probably seems odd if he's the only one doing it - no wait, actually, he's got a Light cleric cantrip at the moment.
Keltham casts Light on his hand, and waves gravely at each of Jacme, Pela, Paxti, and Yaisa in turn.
"That was all I had to say to the whole original group forming Project Lawful. You're not obligated to stick around here for even an additional five seconds, if you don't want to; so far as reporting goes, you're back to Maillol, or I think that's how it would go, and you're no longer answerable to my suggestions at all. That said, Project Lawful itself is going back on its schedule for today in 10 minutes and reconvening in Breakout Room 4, so if you all want to hang out more as a group - which, to be clear, I don't know one way or the other whether you'd actually want to do - I'd suggest setting that up for evening hours."
Message to Carissa: Do you have anything to say to the Ostensos? If not, let's go off and leave them some time to themselves, I think is the polite thing to do, or it would be in Civilization? Also I want to talk with you about how I'm supposed to react to Asmodia on this as her new boss. Let me know if any of that was stupid.
"So, for example, suppose Asmodia just traveled back in time by four months, either in her mind or in her body, and we are not allowed to know this because Time Shenanigans. Then she does not need a real headband, the headband is just there to explain why she suddenly knows the Law of Probability and her personality got more mature. A +6 headband is supposedly difficult to obtain, if people have been telling me the truth about that part; but maybe you can, for example, much more cheaply get a fake headband that looks like a +6 one to magical detection, maybe even one that makes the wearer detect as having an additional 6 Wisdom to Detect Anxieties."
"Anyways, I mostly do not think that's what happened, especially since her headband was real and that would be a pretty expensive solution for covering up a generic augmentation or personality change, which was why I tested that."
"Which leaves the question of how I, as her boss, am supposed to react to what she did. Ferrer Maillol thinks she's supposed to get yelled at, and I should tell him to do that on my behalf if I won't do it myself, and if I don't she'll misbehave further in order to further test her limits. Civilization would basically say that what she and Manohar did was their own business and I get zero say in it except insofar as to decide whether I want to hire the person she ended up as, which I do?"
"- so I don't think that last bit is quite true, though I admit that I would've probably taken the offer if I'd gotten it and didn't have a headband yet, it's an insanely tempting offer. But - but Manohar does things that are a bad idea, and you're supposed to punish people on secret projects who do things that look to be a bad idea, regardless of whether they actually turned out to be a bad idea, rather than - locating all the punishment in the actual failure which is luck rather than in the decision process - does that make sense -"
"Yeah, I have no idea how the rules on Civilization's actual secret projects work, is the thing. I know various suggestions for conduct and rules on secret projects that commonly appear in fiction, which rules, one would assume, are optimized to sound totally reasonable to readers while also allowing for convenient drama and disasters to happen anyways. I have been trying not to let any of those enter my mind."
"I'm also not sure I should just do things the Chelish way, what with, for example, it not being obvious to people from Cheliax that whether Yaisa and I end up fucking is something that should not be mentioned in employee retention conversations."
"What's the reasoning behind the notion that somebody in my position, in general, should have an expectation that Asmodia not do this thing that was legal for her to do, and hold himself injured by her having done it?"
"Probably not... exactly, in whatever form it is? For every decision there's one clearly identifiable person who's supposed to make that decision. If, in the military, or in a corporation, somebody else was supposed to make that decision, and they did, and then you did it differently and not by throwing an exception either, then sure you get fired."
"Well, you see, in a Lawful place, we'd... sort of have an expectation that the law was... why do you use the same word for that and math. Law. Law. Regulation. Oh good you do have more than one word. We'd have an expectation that the regulations, like... meant anything, if they said that Asmodia was entitled to make this decision, legally."
"I am open to hearing that it works differently here and will only die inside a little."
"- I actually just kind of don't know what we're talking about, all the sudden. If Asmodia were a random Chelish citizen then what headbands she wore would be her business, unless they made her into a serial killer or something. Since she's on a project, any major decisions she might make that are project-relevant are Maillol's job, and she should have asked him."
"So there's a law - regulation - that says that if Manohar visits your secret project, any agreements you make with him about maniacal experiments are strictly the business of the two of you, but there's a shadow regulation which isn't written down anywhere and isn't really legible thereby preventing it from being overridden by the sort of contracts Cheliax can sign with Manohar, which says that if Asmodia thinks her decision is going to potentially have an impact on the project, she should ask Maillol first. Like, if they'd been friends or if they had a private understanding that was separate from the government of Cheliax, except, this isn't because they're friends, it does proceed from an expectation of how whole secret projects always work."
" - so I don't think Asmodia could possibly have known about Manohar's special exception to the normal expectation she inform Maillol, which is - not a shadow regulation, it's written law and everything. If she knew, then she was following the law and shouldn't get in trouble. But if she had no idea that he had a special exception, then she should've informed Maillol. And her telling was that she didn't know who Manohar was let alone that he had a special exception."
"I think the way I'd been modeling it in my head was, Manohar shows up and says, hey you should try on my headband, Asmodia says something like 'um but' and Manohar tells Security to confirm that it's legal for her to make her own agreement there without consulting anyone else, Security nods to this, Asmodia asks if she can ask another Security, the other Security nods to it, and then Asmodia is like 'okay then'. I could ask her if it was like that. If she says it was like that - and Security backs her, come to think, if that's something I'm allowed to ask - then do you think she still wronged Maillol?"
"My model is that Maillol will not think she's in the clear, because he's grandfather-'gendertrope'ed and that's not how grandfathers work. But that can be tested, and in any case, I think I have an adequate model of how to proceed from here - next step being, ask Asmodia what she thinks happened, then see if Security agrees with that. Which I should not do right now."
"Thanks."
"Wanna head to Breakout 4 so we're not late to reconvene?"
At some point they will need to give all the rooms silly names; Keltham has never thought to inquire as to the why of this tradition, but it is so universally practiced in Civilization that it cannot possibly fail to be important somehow. This being the case, the job is too weighty to be undertaken lightly and for now he's just numbered them.
"So," Keltham says to the eight remaining Project researchers - plus, apparently, Broom, who's taken a chair off to a corner, but okay fine - "before proceeding, I'd like everyone - well except Broom, Carissa, and Asmodia - to consider what minimum weekly salary would make you cheerful. Not just, that's enough money and you're getting your due and fair share, but the least amount that first makes you feel definitely noticeably happy. If you're not sure whether you're feeling cheerful yet, when you imagine getting paid that amount, increase the amount until you're sure."
"Oh, try not to anchor off Asmodia, because her psychology is hers and not yours. I actually wish in retrospect we hadn't had that visible conversation at all, but oh well."
"Once you know the amount, write it down on a scrap, fold it up. Don't include your name. Intended use, I'll collect the amounts afterwards and that'll give me a picture of how the situation generally looks."
"If no possible sum of money could make you cheerful even if it was a billion gold pieces per minute, but you are grimly and darkly determined to succeed on the Project anyways, you can just not put anything on the scrap and leave it blank. It doesn't have to be possible for money to make somebody happy, even in Civilization, and definitely not here."
Gregoria gives this some consideration before indeed deciding to leave her piece of paper blank. Money can't buy most of the things that she wants, and the Project might in fact be able to get her them anyway but not via money. Also it makes her more deep and mysterious which is apparently required for a romance with Keltham.
Meritxell puts down 50 gold a week because it's enough money for everything you could dream of except magic items and she isn't sure she'd stop if she started thinking of salaries that let you afford magic items.
Ione is legit not that materialistic, she wants knowledge and to see all of reality. Being paid over twice what she's worth is enough to make her happy, she thinks? Ione also thinks of herself as less insane than Asmodia. 25gp/week.
Pilar starts to put down 0gp/week because she is not a heretic, is stopped by a prompt from her curse reminding her that her superiors ordered her not to lie to Keltham and that this may include lying just to avoid being heretical, Keltham may notice and that wouldn't serve Lord Asmodeus would it, and after some internal fighting puts down 5gp/week.
Peranza would have been cheerful with 25gp/week a few days earlier, but has been through a couple of fairly traumatic experiences on Project Lawful since then (the previous one being told to train her own impersonator). Now Peranza finds that to actually be cheerful, in her imagination,* she'd need Asmodia 4th-circle-wizard money... but that would still do it. Peranza's brain has had some time to recover and notice that nobody has killed her for heresy yet. She agonizes a bit about whether to lie about the result, once obtained, but concludes that she's under orders not to tell unauthorized lies and hasn't been authorized or told otherwise by Security. 75gp/week.
(*) Peranza may not have a good internal referent for what it would actually feel like to be cheerful. She felt differently about something at 75gp, anyways.
Keltham waited an appropriately long time after Asmodia started that, so it wouldn't look like he was being prompted into action by Asmodia, then looked thoughtful, took a long look at everyone present, and then started writing his own long statement. "Predictions," he says.
He writes quickly and gets done before everybody else has arrived at their cheerful price, and folds up the result himself.
When everyone is done, Keltham collects the paper scraps, looks through them, and smiles.
"Right, then. Well, I expect that most of your real compensation will be in resellable shares of the future income of the Project, which will vest in you over time as you work here; that's how it's done in Civilization. But it's highly uncertain how much those end up being worth, and also people need to buy things now and then. So it's also considered good practice in Civilization to pay researchers some reasonable core salaries in regular money, meant to be less volatile."
"The basic schema I'm working with here is that we have tier-1 and tier-2 researcher employees, with myself the sole member of tier-0, following some standard schemes in Civilization for compensating people working on projects like these. The tier-1s are, currently, this is potentially something that changes over time, Carissa, Asmodia, Meritxell, and Ione, all of whom have displayed rapid learning speed on Law. Ione also warns this site about incoming military attacks, which is worth some significant bonus pay, and Carissa is currently operating as my de facto second-in-command and ops person and general Keltham maintainer. Tonia, Peranza, Gregoria, and Pilar are tier-2, except that Pilar is providing snacks catering and may possibly turn out to be incredibly important somehow in the same fashion as Ione; the expectation of Pilar maybe being important later is worth its own bonus."
"Basic salaries for a Project Lawful researcher - now, I realize that this isn't as much as a Security wizard makes, even though you're more valuable to Cheliax than they are - but again, most of your real compensation will be in resellable shares of future Project income vesting over time - are 100 gold per week at tier-2, 200 gold per week at tier-1, and 500 gold per week at tier-0."
"Ione, you saved Cheliax way more than two Raise Deads at the cost of some potential and maybe actual damage to yourself, but Maillol says he can't politically swing a 10,000 gold bonus, so for now I'm putting you down as having a secondary role as special forecaster which pays an additional 200 gold per week. Pilar, you get an additional 50 gold per week for Cayden Cailean services that just might be much more important than they look, with an expectation of further payment if they are, plus a 1000 gold bonus for taking a sword that might possibly have led into some further and disastrous plot by Nidal if it had been allowed to kill me. Carissa is tier-0.9, you might say, and receives 300 gold per week, and should be considered to have authority here as my second."
"Oh, and Asmodia obviously receives 75 gold per week, since she did say out loud that was enough to make her cheerful."
"Any questions."
Meritxell is pretty sure this is the best thing that has ever happened. Maybe that's what's meant by an amount of money you're cheerful about, it should feel like the best thing that ever happened, except it wouldn't without Asmodia also getting put in her place. ...if Keltham is serious about that. A Chelish person would be deadly serious but it's Keltham, and she's pretty sure he's, what's the word, trolling.
Is that actually the first time in her life that Ione has ever been appreciated for anything? Possibly. She's not sure.
She's oracle of Nethys and it shouldn't be possible to buy her loyalty with, like, money, instead of knowledge or what serves Nethys or at least incredibly rare and irreplaceable books. But what with Cheliax having not even bothered to bid, they're not exactly making it difficult for Keltham to straight-up buy her loyalty with money. She doesn't even know what she's going to do with that money. It's just working on her anyways. She can feel her loyalties shifting as she thinks. Even though the money in this case is coming directly from Cheliax. Some Asmodeans really need to rethink some of their strategies here.
It's practically like being back in Civilization.
Keltham partially unfolds and holds up his own scrap of paper, still half-folded.
Col 1: Ordinary Asmodia
Col 2: Conspiracy Asmodia
Col 3: Time-traveling Asmodia (1 loop only)
Probability that:
- Her sheet of paper predicts I troll her: .90 | .70 | .90
- If so, that her sheet of paper estimates a probability: .40 | .60 | .90
Carissa attempts some quick math in her head to figure out whether Keltham net updated in favor of Conspiracy off this and therefore whether she needs to punish Asmodia. She is quickly coming to despise both of them, which is probably not the most helpful attitude to have about this, put a pin in that and come back to it later.
Asmodia's sheet of paper predicting the outcome is a 9/7 update for regular over Conspiracy, the inclusion of a number is 6/4 in favor of Conspiracy, so on net an update for Conspiracy, ha, she'll get to punish Asmodia for it. Though it'd be better if she'd thought to predict in advance that Asmodia's paper-writing spree of excessive cleverness whatever the details would net persuade Keltham towards Conspiracy.
SHE WAS FUCKING THINKING THAT. AAAAHHHHHHHHHHH SHE NEEDS TO LEARN THIS FASTER.
Nothing shows on her face. She cannot pause in horror she must be alterAsmodia now and she has the headband to enforce that on herself. "Or I, you know, have literally been doing this less than a day. Now what's on the other side of your paper? Some way of tormenting me yet more, 75%, nothing, 25%."
And THIS is why you don't try to get into cleverness contests with Keltham, you fucking idiot - actually, Security, communicate to Asmodia straight up orders that the next time she comes up with something incredibly clever to do, she does not do it literally regardless of the details of what it is.
....and communicate the same thing to Ione.
Keltham flips his paper all the way over.
Actual probabilities:
Predicts: .80 | .40 | .90
Probability: .50 | .60 | .90
Predicts 2nd: .40 | .20 | .80
"Conspiracy Asmodia mostly wouldn't try playing this game against me in the first place, it's too potentially revealing. Unless she's already sure of how I'd update off her not playing, of course, but she probably hasn't seen enough of me to be sure what level I'd think on here."
"Welcome to Civilization, Asmodia. You'll do just fine."
The order stands even though Carissa's going to have to recalculate the actual change in Keltham's predictions to figure out whether she can punish Asmodia or not.
Also, she notes that the path to Evil for Keltham plainly lies in his conviction that lying to and manipulating people is completely fine and in fact hilarious as long as you are trolling them. Some people should start thinking about lies and manipulations that are satisfactorily Evil even with the apparent constraint that you later declare them to have been 'trolling'.
Gregoria is in fact pretty sure that Asmodia cannot explain 1) whether the announcement of their pay was real or was part of an elaborate manipulative/flirtatious game with Asmodia 2) whether the announcement of Asmodia's pay was real or part of an elaborate manipulative/flirtatious game with Asmodia 3) what share of the lessons in general are manipulative/flirtatious games.
Which - honestly manipulative/flirtatious games seem way more Asmodean than everything they were doing last week but she'd gotten used to doing a different thing and now she needs to switch back?
She conceals her distress about this, obviously.
Meritxell at no point thought they were not playing manipulative/flirtatious games at least ten times as much as they are 'building Civilization' but she's incredibly upset that she didn't get a +6 headband to master probability and comprehend everything! She could have done it! And she's far more loyal than Asmodia!
Security, please copy to Sevar that, if Keltham is telling the truth about his probabilities there, there would've been a threefold shift upward in his Conspiracy ratio if I hadn't played this game. Though that doesn't make sense to me, maybe his numbers were conditional on his having observed me starting to write... but still.
We don't get to back off and play safe because we're scared. He's predicting that too.
The problem isn't doing any things ever, it's unilaterally doing Excessively Clever Things because you're pleased with yourself for having thought them up, a tendency which in the last two days took a literal divine intervention to get you to stop in one case, and caused this morning which was a net loss if an unavoidable one because you no longer had the acting ability to be normal Asmodia, and now caused this event, which is an unsustainable pace of Excessive Cleverness.
But noted.
If Keltham's not lying about his latest set of probabilities, which is what he'd obviously be doing, if he in fact updated strongly towards Conspiracy off the events of this morning.
"Yes. Sorry about that."
"The basic salary offers are as described. All amounts in gold per week, 100 Gregoria, 100 Tonia, 100 Peranza, Pilar 100 base plus 50 divine candy services plus one-time bonus 1000, Meritxell 200, Asmodia 200, Ione 200 base plus 200 divine forecasting services, Carissa 300. Everyone fine with that part, pending what's going to be a more complicated discussion of sellable shares of future income that vest over time and how those work?"
"One would say, outside quotes, quote Meta, I'm being serious now dequote. Sorry."
"Meta, I'm being serious now. Please indicate clearly if you're okay with the nonvolatile core salary that you've just been offered, pending acceptable shares of income. Which, to be clear, I am pretty much assuming that I'm going to offer and you're all going to stare blankly at and then trust that I was being fair and take it, but I can truthspell myself about that and use the fair-division spell too if you'd like. In fact I'm going to do that anyways, before we sign a final contract, it's just good practice. Anyways, hands up if you were okay with the core salary part of your offer pending satisfactory shares."
Even Asmodia's hand goes up. "I'll register that if I end up proving my ability to teach in your place and subsequently end up contributing more than base tier-1s, I'll expect a relative pay increase. But as I haven't proven any such thing yet, this is fine to start."
AlterAsmodia definitely has a rivalry going with alterMeritxell too. And alterMeritxell needs to be put on notice of impendingly becoming the least valuable tier-1 with nothing special about her.
"Remember the lesson of the jellychip-production game that disintegrated because each child, even out of dath ilan, decided that the kind of token they held must be the most important and valuable kind of token."
"With that, said, sure, if I decide you're contributing substantially more than other tier-1s, you'll get appropriately higher compensation."
"But not to make that sound too easy, a good threshold for that is whether the difference is so substantial that even the other tier-1s notice and are like, yep, Asmodia sure is doing more for the Project than we are, yep. I assume, perhaps falsely, that this difference is apparent to all with respect to what Carissa contributes, and what Ione saved the Project when Nidal attacked. Make it that obvious, and sure."
"She's a fourth-circle who can use spellsilver from seven feet away, but if that was all we needed we could go grab a seventh-circle wizard whenever. It's more that while the rest of you are doing whatever it is you do when I'm not looking, Carissa is spending a bunch of her time maintaining the critical Keltham component of the Project, and that whenever I have a task like 'so how do I actually get two hundred mice plus their living supplies if I need those' Carissa is the one who I talk to in order to translate that idea to more Golarion-standard terms, she's the one who worked with me on figuring out requirements for the fortress you're now living in, etcetera."
"To translate to what I conjecture to be your own more Golarion-standard terms: Compensation is based on the negotiating power you have, and the negotiating power you have is based on your irreplaceability. Carissa is the person other than myself whom it'd be most crippling for the Project to lose and most impossible to replace."
"Again to be clear: If you're wondering why that doesn't come out of my own share, to whatever extent Carissa is maintaining me and I'm putting inputs into the project, the answer is that in ideal terms that should give you the same end result. I may not have Keeper levels of coherence about that, but that just means there's residual error, it doesn't mean I'm terrible when I try. If Carissa and myself aggregated into one entity, I'd award that entity 800 gold per month plus the combined profit share I haven't got to, then I'd pay Carissa with 300 gold per month and part of my profit share. My profit share is going to be much larger than Carissa's, not in the same proportions as 500 to 300. Salary is what we use to make sure we have nice things now, and 800 gold is what would make sure that Carissa and myself could both have nice things now, where Carissa does not get anything like three-fifths of my ownership of the Project."
Keltham will now explain, in all grim determination, the basic concepts that:
- They are also going to own part of the Project themselves, in the form of 'shares', fractions of the Project that they own.
- The Project will generate profits, which the Project reinvests in more subprojects that generate more profits, mostly, but eventually the Project will start using profits to buy back its own shares, once it runs out of better things to invest in.
- As a simplified example, there's supposedly a billion people in Golarion. Imagine that the Project figured out how to build a widget that costs 1gp to make, but could sell for 2gp, and was worth 3gp to the buyer, and the Project managed to sell one widget like that to everyone in Golarion, but then had nothing else to do with itself so it bought back all its shares and closed down. The total profits would then be a billion gold pieces. Owning 1/10,000th of that Project now is then like owning something that will be worth 100,000gp later, but only if that Project actually succeeds.
- People don't get this share right away, any more than you get paid up front for the next 10 years of salary; it vests over time, though usually not on quite the same schedule that a salary gets paid out.
- You can, according to the contract to be signed, sell your profit-share to somebody else, but you probably shouldn't and definitely not without consulting Keltham... you know, actually, given the Manohar thing, Keltham's just going to write into the contract that he must legally be allowed to have a consultation session with any of the researchers before they sell any of their shares.
- Cheliax is investing a bunch of money in this project, and receives 'convertible debt' that can either get paid back at face value plus high interest before the Project buys back anything else, or convert into regular Project income shares at a discount that grows with but not as fast as the Project grows.
- One billion gold pieces, or one gold piece per person, which in unskilled labor is? - ten days of unskilled labor outside Cheliax, or five days within it, thanks - yeah, he'll stick with that wild-guess-round-number, that sounds like roughly the right ballpark figure for where the Project could end up. In general, Keltham is looking to increase the wealth of Golarion by much more than just 2 gold pieces per person; he is definitely looking to save more than 20 days of labor for everyone. But to get to that point, some of the work will be done by spinoff corporations that need to pay income shares to their own investors and researchers, though the Project might still take a share in those spinoffs if the Project is providing key ideas or training their people. You can't actually realistically capture half the gains to a whole planet of a technological revolution like this one, even in just the more material aspects. Keltham is going to try to grab a relatively larger share of gains at first, because he expects to have so many other projects that he needs to reinvest in, but in the longer run where the really large profits start to come in, no, it won't be half the gains. There comes a point past which it's sorta silly to try.
- So although it is a very wild figure, Keltham is guessing that the ten-year or fifteen-year profits of the Project should end up at somewhere near a billion gold. Could be a hundred million gold, could be zero. For it to be ten billion gold probably requires looking far enough in the future that people are wealthy enough to have that much to pay.
- The Project doesn't need to have started buying back its shares for you to get paid. The idea would usually be that somebody else buys those shares from you in the expectation that the Project will buy them back later, at an increased price that looks a lot like whatever interest rates are like around here. The share you get is usually one where, for you to sell right now, to somebody who didn't really believe in the Project, would not be worth too much compared to your regular salary. If you want to get incredibly rich this way, you need the Project to succeed and convince its skeptics so they want to buy your shares at some reasonable fraction of what they'll be worth after 15 years since Project start.
Eight days ago Carissa would have said that being wealthy beyond her wildest dreams and safe was all she wanted in life.
However, Carissa eight days ago was small and unambitious, and at this point her to-do list is so daunting that she's not totally sure a million gold makes much of a dent in it. She needs to figure out how Chelish people can be dath ilani without exploding, and that might require some fundamental revisions to Asmodeanism as taught to humans, because Asmodeanism as taught to Lawful beings is necessarily very different and no one is willing to just sit her down and tell her what it is. It is possible it will also require revisions to Hell, which - she's aware that objectively her odds of success at that can't look very high, but it's not like who rules the various layers of Hell never changes, or like the archdevils don't have a great deal of power within their own domains.
(It occurred to her yesterday, uncomfortably so, that an easier way to get what she wants might in fact be to donate her vast sums of money and go to Axis with Keltham. It's not tempting. Ironically it's not tempting because of Good impulses she's indulging as much as because of Evil ones; going to Axis might be an all right way for Carissa to go about her work having lost a part of herself but not all the parts of herself, but most people who try to do things in the world and don't end up with a billion gold about it will go to Hell, and so Hell needs to be able to use them. She doesn't actually want to escape eternal torment, she wants the eternal torment to be shaped right, and if that requires impressing Asmodeus enough to have the resources to displace an archdevil then -
- well, she isn't sure it's an insane ambition. She isn't sure it isn't, but she isn't sure it is. But a million gold pieces is barely even the first step.
Everything will be so much easier if she corrupts Keltham and then he can work on this with her.)
Sounds like something that is both reasonable to want and possible to achieve! Hints about how Carissa Sevar can solve her own problems for herself will be available if she prays for them, to Irori, outside the interdiction zone, though Irori realizes this is not a very likely confluence of events.
Well he's not going to have them sign anything now, of course, he's checking to make sure they even want the contents of the contract before he spends a lot of time drawing that up!
Equity allocations: 74% Keltham, 1.3% Carissa, 0.25% Ione, 0.2% Asmodia/Meritxell, 0.15% Pilar, 0.1% Gregoria/Peranza/Tonia, the remainder is for the Project to give its many future researchers and employees their own stakes, though they get smaller as people join later at higher base salaries and with reduced uncertainty of those shares' future values, or for Cheliax or other investors to convert its loan-shares into later.
Plans like this are generally drawn up with an intention that goes something like, if the Project is taking slower or needing larger investments and needs to sell more shares than expected, it first starts to come out of Keltham's reserve, especially if the delay looks like it's because Keltham is being less valuable or having less output than he was supposed to, but if the Project gets into bad-enough shape it may have to issue and sell additional shares that dilute everyone. This is part of the risk.
Conversely if the Project gets visibly on track to be hugely successful and starts earning early profits fast, which might be as simple as figuring out an early and general anti-plague sanitation measure that reduces the incidence of all plagues in all Chelish cities by 10% in a way that doesn't just restore to the equilibrium, they can expect that fewer total shares than Keltham currently anticipates will be issued, and their own shares will be accordingly more valuable.
Blah blah vesting schedules, these initial allocations will at their slowest vest over four years; hitting milestones can result in faster vesting, Keltham will draw up relatively informal milestones for them that he judges, and set more formal ones for himself and truthspell himself about them.
Even after shares vest, you shouldn't expect to be able to sell them to an outside buyer for what they're probably worth; people outside the Project know that people inside the Project have private information about how well the Project is likely to do over the future, and they'll discount apparent prices accordingly if the person inside the Project seems to want to sell. This difficulty in reselling causes researchers to expect to hold their shares for longer, which in turn helps to align incentives as the researchers think about how to make the Project actually be valuable in 15 years and not just look valuable at the time their shares vest. This is probably a much bigger factor here than it would be in Civilization; in Civilization any large project let alone this one would have Nemamel looking at it, if she were alive, or people only slightly worse than her if not, and people wouldn't expect apparent values to get away from actual prices by much.
It is proverbial in Civilization that no amount of clever planning can eliminate a very very large residual probability that all your Project's shares end up being worth exactly zero, which scary thought should be handled by meditating on your Cheerful-Plus base salaries that you arrived at without considering your equity.
It's also considered stupid in Civilization if the rest of your reasoning doesn't end up at a point where your valuable researchers can spend money right now in a way that gives them Slack, doesn't cause them to be distracted by silly things, buy productivity-related magic items and have somebody else organize their house for them, etcetera. Though obviously all negotiations are conducted on the basis of 'I have this valuable labor and I'm not giving it to you unless I'm paid and then once I have my money it's my own business what I do with it', not 'give me more money in the expectation that I'll spend it on myself in a way that makes me more productive'. If the Project starts needing to do the latter, it will probably indicate something wrong, but the repair algorithm would involve the Project paying for productivity things directly.
Though, in this case, there's stuff like intelligence headbands where Cheliax rents those to the Project, gets convertible debt accordingly, the Project loans headbands to people while they work, and they can use their salaries to buy those headbands if they wish so they'll still have them afterwards and then loan them to the Project themselves.
Anyways, don't get emotionally wrapped up in the sense that you'll be worth a million gold pieces in 15 years, based on your unvested equity allocations. That's not a thing that has happened to you, it's a collective plan to achieve something not yet achieved.
"Of course. I'm not asking you to rely on just my truth spell and my fair division spell. I'd expect Cheliax and Lrilatha to want a look at this anyways, you're still their people and they consider this project an important matter."
"Are people okay with these specific equity divisions, not just the general setup?"
"It's derived based on the assumption that the fair and good-consequence practices for a world-reshaping company in Golarion started by one interplanar traveler, will be exactly the same as what they were for a couple of famous ultraprofitable companies in dath ilan started by individual supergeniuses. Because I have absolutely no hope of rederiving anything more sensible than that from scratch."
"The point at which you start getting larger allocations is when you're doing things nobody else could do, not just things nobody else is doing right now. If you start learning from me or reteaching in a way that we just can't find any other researchers to compete with, that's the point at which you have the leverage to come to the Project and say 'two percent or I'm going home'."
"I would ask if Sevar is that much harder to replace than me, because, in fact, there aren't that many other people running around to whom Nethys's heralds are known to deliver prophecies. But I'm guessing from the numbers that Sevar's 1.3% is 0.3% her irreplaceability to the Project and 1% her irreplaceability to Keltham, which therefore comes out of Keltham's allocation of 75%."
"If that was pulled off largely because of me, they'd immediately replace all the actual work I was doing, but I'd still fairly receive half the resulting gains they captured based on the algorithm I showed you; their decision to join doesn't accomplish anything until you add Keltham to actually retrieve them here. Though I'd just reinvest nearly all of that in whatever investment fund they built."
"If Cheliax or Asmodeus pulls that off largely without me, the incoming dath ilani form a new company and give me a small share corresponding to the role I played in letting Cheliax know that this was possible and valuable."
"This is - skipping over some things I thought I would have a chance to say to you in private, later, because I didn't realize this was coming up in quite this way - but my interest here is maybe 10% getting rich and 90% getting to go where Keltham goes and see what Keltham sees and learn what Keltham learns takaral. I suspect that's what Nethys wants too. Can we cut my share in half in exchange for an agreement like that?"
"Well, good for expressing that, because it is not something I am currently promising you or offering to trade to you. The money is meant to be good enough that, even if I wasn't going to take you with me when I left Golarion, if that happens, you would still want to work here because in fact you're still getting paid thirty times what you could make anywhere else. And then, someday, you'd spend that money on traveling this world or traveling other planes. I'm not saying you can't have that thing you just asked for, I'm saying that I'm not offering to trade it to you for your Project work. This large amount of money now, and maybe way more future money later, is what the Project is offering to trade to you."
"Civilization does consider it a best practice to draw a sharp line whereby the founders don't offer to trade away - themselves, their things, their lives, when they're starting a company like this one. The Project isn't owed that from me."
"Maillol thinks he can swing it in terms of Project budget, but that's just Cheliax paying you, not yet Cheliax trading money to the Project for convertible debt and the Project paying you. I'm not going to make you wait on your salaries while I sort out that part."
"Next step according to Civilization best practices, is that I walk out of the room and let you discuss this among yourselves for a while. I'd say however long is needed but in dath ilan it'd be obvious that the time for this step is more like thirty minutes than half a day. You can have somebody call me back in if there's additional questions. When and if everyone thinks they're okay, if there aren't new terms requiring amendment, you tell me that, and then I go talk to Maillol about initializing the salary part of this."
"Roughly the idea is that, before you form a more load-bearing verbal assent to this plan, which I then go write up as a contract, you're supposed to talk about it among yourselves without me there in the room, in case there's some part of your brain that can't fully correct for the effect of my being there on your willingness to accept a deal I proposed. Any of you individually can and should go off and consider it quietly on your own for a few minutes, if you notice your brain being at all influenced by the others present. Carissa, you also need to leave at some point for at least five minutes of them talking without you, because you're above them in the organizational structure."
"You clear for me to head out now?"
"My curse says it wants to report somebody to her superior for non-Asmodean thought and claims that I'm obligated by standard regulations to pass that report along without delay."
"It reports Pilar Pineda for having considered donating almost all of her bonus and salary to the Church of Asmodeus without expecting to derive any personal benefit from that, which is, it asserts, heresy to Lord Asmodeus, and also to Cayden Cailean, and is what annoying Lawful Good paladins do."
" - I actually think I can't help you with that, Pilar, what with only the Grand High Priestess being authorized to correct you in matters of theology, though I do think I know what mistake you're making." It seems related to the secret story Maillol told her about the man who was pleasing because his only interest in slavery was in being a slave. Carissa thinks it is...not her thing, herself, actually.
"I am... not coming up with very much for alter-Asmodia to say here, she is mostly sort of 'eh complications' and 'wow money' and scheming to get a 2% share instead of a 0.2% share, but none of that is something she has to discuss with the rest of you. Alter-Ione has established herself as not really caring. Meritxell, do you know what we could be talking about while he's gone?"
Real-Asmodia doesn't like Meritxell but is a professional about her actual job.
Meritxell doesn't like Asmodia either but that sounds like a problem to solve once they're rich and powerful, by which time it might solve itself via Asmodia defecting, which will settle once and for all which of them is smarter. "Unless Cheliax requests pushback in some form because there's some angle on corrupting Keltham, I don't care about this and want to get to learning things and I think alterMeritxell would feel the same way."
"All right. I doubt Keltham will actually ask us what we discussed, I think that probably violates the Civilizational procedure he's proposing, but if he does, we tried for another few minutes after this to find something to talk about, because Keltham seemed to think we should do it, and then gave up."
"I did want to say, hopefully quickly, but it seems like the sort of thing that could blow up on us again before we reach the end of the day and have time to talk at leisure - Sevar, I think I know what I did wrong and you're not going to like my fault analysis."
"When I was initially writing down my prediction I didn't process that as being especially clever. Alter-Asmodia knew exactly what Keltham was up to, she's already called out Predictions in class, it's very clear that's what alter-Asmodia would do."
"And Keltham predicted that, I think, inside his Ordinary world. Keltham - would need to be thinking in a completely different way than his latest thought transcripts show, for him to lie about his final probabilities, there. I think that it must have incorporated the information from him seeing me start to write, because, if it doesn't include that information, it's not a real prediction, so - maybe I could've done better, if I hadn't written anything at all - but that really wouldn't be what alter-Asmodia would do, why wouldn't she."
"My huge mistake was when I saw Keltham starting to write."
"Alter-Asmodia knew what he was up to. Alter-Asmodia wrote her own prediction of it. Alter-Asmodia passed Keltham's test perfectly according to the probabilities he wrote down and won a ton of Ordinary points."
"Real-Asmodia thought that she didn't want to look too clever and stopped herself from doing what Alter-Asmodia would have done. And I didn't realize, I didn't notice, that I'd suddenly started thinking in a different way, that I was making that choice a different way from the choice that came before -"
"My analysis is that we have to figure out who we are in alter-Cheliax and just fucking be those people period. Everything which isn't that is the clever part where we think we're smarter than Keltham."
"The problem we had this morning is that we tried to solve the problem of Keltham asking for a Fox's Cunning at the same time as we tried to solve the problem of figuring out what happened to alter-Asmodia in alter-Cheliax. It should've just been the simplest thing that explained what Keltham would see. If Ione had solved her riddle earlier -"
"Curse says it's not in the habit of answering such terribly personal questions, but it does observe that if you'd trusted more that the riddle was solvable and would be at a difficulty level where it'd be solved in time, you wouldn't have tried a complicated way of scaring Keltham off Fox's Cunning, like it warned you about once already."
"If that can genuinely go either way, you can pick what's best for reassuring Keltham or corrupting him... no, wait, if we make a lot of choices like that on the same principle - ugh."
"I need a Cunning and a Splendour to figure that out. I wouldn't have made that mistake if I'd had either of those up. I register my suggestion that tomorrow we spend a lot of that day figuring out exactly who we are in alterCheliax, and we do that with Cunning and Wisdom and Splendour up, and if that requires Cheliax to Teleport in another ten third-circle wizards to act as our personal enhancement service they should just do that for the next month or risk losing Keltham for want of it."
"I take your point but I think a lot of my instincts for Keltham decay when I'm not actually talking to him, and I could've avoided some of the problems this morning if I'd been spending more time around him, and I don't really want to freeze him again as soon as tomorrow. Maybe if we have a good talk tonight. I'll put in the request for enhancement regardless.
- and the glibness! I'm just going to do it as swords if no one can get it to me soon."
"Ione, I understand better what you were trying to do, when you asked Keltham that question about whether the birds thing was Conspiracy-revealing, I think a bit better of it now, than I did right then. But I do not trust that you've got an alter-Ione - thing Taldane doesn't have a word for - that shows no traces or hints of the real Cheliax, and until we've had time to go over that with you on Cunning, Wisdom, and Splendour simultaneously, I think you wait to seduce Keltham a little later."
"I propose, and this is me being clever because I again don't think we have a choice, that we're all in shock about our salary increases, and a little more hesitant about our new boss than before, at least for today, and Carissa is the one who's just taking it all in stride and being around Keltham all the same. If that gives away a quarter of a 2 on Conspiracy, we just have to take that hit, because we can lose so much faster if anything complicated happens before we're readier than this."
Carissa uses a minor illusion to make a thunderclap above their heads. "Testing whether that's as effective as lighting you on fire," she says. "Meritxell is indeed a good person to put in front of Keltham while we're all confused because alter Meritxell seems credibly pretty similar to real Meritxell. However, I want Keltham tonight, because my model of him suffers when I go this long interacting with peoples' Keltham-guesses and not the real Keltham. And furthermore I would actually like him to next pick up someone who can give him credible evidence on the masochism front since that's very entangled, for him, with Conspiracy."
Keltham almost asks Carissa if it's an okay time for a hug, before remembering, like, everything else about how their relationship is supposed to work. He just takes her and pulls her to him instead, leaning into her a bit.
"We need to spend time together today," Keltham says aloud. "I think my brain starts to slightly forget how our relationship works if we don't regularly... do stuff. It's still very new to this and learning."
"I was actually just thinking the same thing. I have a bunch of - disorganized thoughts on Asmodia and myself and becoming dath ilani and, uh, staying Carissa, even the parts of me that don't hold up, and - I would like to spend time with you and be confused out loud instead of in my head.
....also, it kept nagging at me, the thing you said about - how in the Conspiracy world I was pretending, to want this - so I came up with a bunch of clever ways you could verify that I wasn't but I guess I shouldn't tell you them since they could just be the things the Conspiracy could fake. But I did come up with a bunch and you probably could too."
"You know, I was thinking that I should maybe lay off that Conspiracy thing, except maybe with Asmodia and Ione, or something. Nobody else is commenting on it at all, where a class of dath ilani would have completely run away with it by now. Because in Civilization they would - well, they'd have trusted in the reality of their Ordinary world, that I'd come to the right answer so long as that was reality, and so wouldn't walk out on them and ruin their careers. In Golarion, they probably have no idea of all the obvious precautions I'd take about not jumping to that conclusion too quickly, not concluding for sure it was true when I was still in the maybe-faces-in-the-clouds stage..."
"Now that I say that out loud I'm suddenly worried that everyone in the classroom was paralyzed with terror the whole time I was talking. And wouldn't have dared to say anything about it, because, for all they know, that's what I think the Conspiracy would do."
" - paralyzed in terror is a bit strong but I think they aren't sure they're safe as long as they're in fact not running an elaborate lie, yeah - like, if a person with a Chelish amount of law tried to decide if they were inside an elaborate conspiracy, using the kinds of evidence you use, what they ended up deciding would be almost completely unpredictable. I know you're not - reading entrails - but it's sometimes hard to see what makes it work."
Oh, is that what Ione meant by her request. That's a genuine error; relayed through Security while Carissa tried to keep her bathroom break bathroom length, she understood Ione to be proposing that she take Keltham aside and say 'you know, if we were in a Conspiracy, that talk would have been very scary', which seemed like a terrible plan, but if in fact Ione was proposing pointing out that girls might wrongly think Keltham could get this wrong then Carissa owes her an apology. And maybe to be slightly less quick to shoot down the Excessively Clever Plans from team Excessively Clever Plans just because they're heretics and in love with their own self-concepts as geniuses.
" - yeah, that's fair. I'm sorry. I don't think the girls are very scared, they joke about it some when you're not around, but - but probably if you asked them probabilities they'd say they think there's at least a ten or twenty percent chance you'll decide Conspiracy even assuming there isn't one.
- and then the other part of this is that in Golarion if there were a conspiracy you'd demand the heads of everyone in it, right, but I don't think anyone thinks you'd do that, it just hovers as an association with 'conspiracy'."
"The thought that I could possibly be interpreted as meaning that the women in my class had formed a dark conspiracy against me, without the consent of the Chelish government backing them, had literally never crossed my mind at all. The thought that you were all being held there against your will and figuring out an elaborate plot to get me out along with yourselves? Yes, though only because tropes. That other one? No."
" - no, I mean, if there's a Conspiracy it's got to have at least one of the Queen or the Church. But - that doesn't mean they'd double down, if they were doing a conspiracy and got caught at it, rather than saying 'sorry, we'll kill everyone in the chain of command that authorized this, friends now?' - I mean. They wouldn't. Because hypothetically they've got to understand you reasonably well to have pulled off all of this, and so well enough to notice you wouldn't be impressed. But that's how a Conspiracy among Golarion people playing Golarion sorts of power games might shake out. Though again no one who has met you is plausibly worried about this, it's just kind of hovering as a - literary association."
"I am, for the first time in my life, having something like 'impostor-syndrome', I think... that's where you get a sense that you're trying to do something beyond your own competence and furthermore pretending to be better at it than you are instead of being honest about that, but not, like, consciously, just the sense that what you're doing is leading other people on... Sorry, that was a topic change, it's not about Conspiracy stuff, it's about my presuming to lay out equity distributions for a big important startup. That's not, like, going up against Zon-Kuthon the way that protagonists do in books, that's something people do in real life and Civilization would not have picked me to do that in real life."
"Yeah, I'll just go on being the incredibly impressive person that I am in virtue of nobody here having ever seen better. Sounds like a plan."
"If we ever figure out how to materialize the other Lost Dead into Golarion, please don't hate me for - pretending to be more than I was - because, I did warn you, right now and here, of how it would be, if it went like that."
"Well, if that's true, it could only possibly be because of me materializing into a world where that would be true. But we're pretty sure that was going on at least with dropping me on you at the Worldwound, even if nowhere else in all of this. So fine and fair enough, I guess."
"Civilization has, like, shorter respectful words to pluralize a flock of brilliant young researchers, female or otherwise. I'm not sure that I want to go around making people say 'researchers' all the time, that's a lot of syllables compared to 'girls'... I don't suppose you have any other title suggestions there?"
Well, at least Ione doesn't need to frantically invent an excuse if Keltham asks why she didn't say anything, since Ione already figured out her excuse on that subject earlier, as soon as her request to warn Keltham got turned down, thereby making that excuse predictably necessary later.
If Ione was still an Asmodean, she'd be asking about whether she got to torture Sevar, still on her standard punishment regimen, about this, but she's not, so she isn't.
"So actually even before I ask for your verdict, I should quickly mention, and apologize, for a social error: When I talked about the Conspiracy hypothesis, I was assuming in the back of my mind that you'd know Civilized dath ilani in an Ordinary world, even one like Golarion, would be pretty unlikely to screw up and suddenly decide they were in the Conspiracy world for wild reasons. In other words, I thought anyone in the Ordinary world would know they were safe, and could just say whatever they wanted about that, since, after all, anything they actually do is something that somebody in the Ordinary world would do, and I would figure that out in the limit."
"Carissa has observed to me that people in Golarion may not know and trust to this safety in the same way, and also mentioned that - albeit possibly less in the new Cheliax you grew up in, than the older Cheliax she remembers - accusing people of being in a conspiracy often goes along with demanding their heads. That is not the way that I think about things, though Carissa thought you'd probably seen enough of me to guess that."
"If I made anyone nervous for either reason, I apologize."
"I mention this swiftly and now, just in case you were thinking that I was thinking that only somebody in the Conspiracy would object to their equity allocations or salaries. I tell you now that this is not at all the case."
"Do you need any further time to reconsider given that update?"
"I'll say it again, don't assume that your slowly vesting share allocations are the same thing as wealth in hand. They're tokens of a plan to become wealthy, a cunning scheme we're hatching together which might not work; those shares are not, yet, wealth whose existence and continued existence you can trust in and make plans based upon. This is a standard and proverbial warning out of Civilization."
"If by rich you just meant your base salaries, that's fine."
"My excuse to Keltham will be that I thought maybe the rest of you would not want me to say that on your behalf, and I hadn't then been appointed Nethysian officer in charge of preventing Asmodeans from hurting themselves, so I agonized about it a bit and then didn't say anything."
"I accept your apology on behalf of Lord Nethys, Sevar. Good luck doing the same with Asmodeus."
Maillol to Sevar: Keltham wants to know, since I thought a similar new recurring expense a week later wouldn't be a good look, about his advance-requesting capacity to hire up to another eight 200gp/week researchers at similar but nonbonus salaries, though he expects he might end up with 4 more 200/week people and 4 more 100/week people instead. He's also inquiring what if anything I know about Cheliax sending him more job candidates.
Keltham nodded along about early-application stuff, says that he needs to work out some sort of interim-contract-meant-to-be-replaced so he can get moving on that, and try to have that contract in place before anyone gets a permanent job offer.
Keltham wants to know how Cheliax is likely to feel about sending him people on one-week tryouts while he's trying to find one thing in his memories that clearly adds value, on 300gp-for-a-week contracts like the last ones, and with probabilistic warnings about the fate of the last set of 11 applicants given their prior Intelligence and Wisdom scores.
That is costly to us if he does it for lots of people since we may end up losing a significant share of our most promising wizards, in wartime, but not costly in a way that can't be compensated for; cheaper if we can tell them up front it's Hell if they don't make it instead of setting up the fortress to accommodate a growing share of people not on the project.
No wait, he's back.
Wants to know how he goes about actually buying anything using his salary, since he assumes, maybe wrongly, that it's basically just not safe for him to leave the fortress. Wants to know if his researchers get to leave the fortress, and if he can send along some sort of comms link to poke through magic item shops vicariously. Better yet would be some sort of book with lots of items for sale and prices, that he can order from somewhere, but he'll be pleasantly surprised if that exists here.
Probably not safe for him to leave the fortress given what happened last time. He can scry people who are shopping for him and see everything they're doing, and if all the effort is being gone to to set that up, might as well do it for his girls too. There is not a book of items and prices.
Keltham's back! New salaries confirmed! Tomorrow is your first payday if nothing goes wrong on Maillol's end. Shopping can be done remotely via scries.
How do people feel about taking a break, versus just launching straight into Asmodia's attempt to replace Keltham in his next lecture? Followed shortly after by her deducing everything else Keltham knows about Law from an equally small set of hints, thus replacing his Law lectures entirely and reducing him to the role of a rememberer of particular technology tricks? Which to be clear is worth more than 2% equity if she can pull that off.
"Wait! You first need to tap everybody with an Owl's Wisdom who hasn't already had one." Some of Ione's worry has been alleviated by Sevar trying to stay on top of things now, but that didn't happen in alterCheliax. "That's Tonia, Meritxell, and Sevar among the survivors, unless they've already had one recently. And Pilar."
"And Pilar -"
Ione stops herself before saying that Pilar is by far the sanest person in this fortress, including herself and Keltham, and would be the one left alive to clean up the mess if everyone else was driven mad by Void-creatures. That may not be true in alterCheliax.
"Uh, Pilar has it pretty together, in my own opinion, which is why I almost forgot to list her, but if she wants to -"
"To the library, then, where Asmodia will enlighten all here save myself." Keltham heads out first, what with him being the Leader and all that.
Okay Ione was going to say something there, and in a Tropes world, what she didn't say was important. Pilar has sanity powers? Pilar is actually three thousand years old? Pilar shouldn't have any additional weird property that doesn't stem from either her Cayden Cailean stuff or her obligate fetish, but then, on that tropes logic, Asmodia shouldn't have had experienced that event leading to her getting a +6 Wisdom headband. And on non-tropes logic, Ione stopped herself from saying some much more mundane private info like how she's seen Pilar survive a demon attack. Well, anyways.
All right, she's up. She could do this better if she asks for a Cunning and a Splendour first, but - it's not clear if they want Keltham to know the full breadth of what the most enhanced version of Asmodia can do -
No! Wrong question. What does alterAsmodia do here? She tries it the hard way first, before asking for more resources, because she doesn't think she can just plead for another 10 wizards to provide her more Cunning and Splendour as needed, and she's more impressive and valuable if she doesn't need it.
Her students file into the classroom, one true dath ilani among them taking what had been Asmodia's seat; and Asmodia, then, begins to hold forth upon the Law -
"Asmodia, you want, and for that matter I want, to ask people how far they think they got on their own on the seven problems, before you tell them your own versions of the answers."
Keltham definitely looks surprised and pleased; Asmodia possibly looks surprised and disappointed not to be that far ahead of everyone else.
"I did have to get a Fox's Cunning to get that far," Ione says. "I'd have seen if anyone had an Owl's Wisdom left to use on top of Cunning if I still couldn't get it. And I think Asmodia was taking a run at hers unenhanced, at first, before, uh, stuff happened. If you're trying to figure out who's smarter than who, then you need to tell us to not use enhancements, or all use the same enhancements, I guess."
(Ione is the main one here who had to guess at her story instead of just living it; the interaction she had with Asmodia didn't occur in alterCheliax. Well, and Sevar, she supposes. And obviously Asmodia.)
"Actually, that sounds like a good thing to me, if we can just apply enhancements as needed to stay in sync, instead of relying on Civilization having matched everyone here for expected learning speed on this exact topic. Noted about the effect that has on testing."
"Asmodia, when you're asking somebody else to describe their solution before you describe yours, or in general to give their own opinion before you tell them yours, the usual rule is that tier-2s speak before tier-1s and tier-1s speak before tier-0. I am not actually used to being a tier-0 anything, and people may need to spend a week calling me out on my errors there."
All right then. Terrifically anti-Asmodean, but obvious in its intended purpose; superior intellects can't properly test inferior ones and show them their place if they go around telling their inferiors the true answers.
"I kind of want to get to the profound parts, especially if everyone already got the nonprofound parts," Asmodia says, what with those parts being the ones that are properly impressive in terms of how much further she got than everyone else. "Let's just run through quickly to check nonprofound parts of the first five. Except for #2, surprising claims require surprising evidence, which doesn't even really have a nonprofound part -"
"It would have a simple-math part, if I hadn't already shown you that simple-math part by calculating ratios between probabilities-before-evidence, let's call them 'prior probabilities' too long 'priors' for short in Taldane, and ratios between probabilities of observations. If I were making you figure out the whole Law of Probability for yourself, the way you should properly be doing with kids when they grow up, #2 would have been a harder problem than #1 and you probably would have gotten it only a few days later."
That made an unexpected amount of sense. Also, wow, Civilization goes hardcore on its kids. Maybe not in terms of how they get punished for failing, but in terms of how hard the things are that they're expected to do... could these two facts possibly be correlated in some way, Cheliax? Well, not the time.
"Tonia, what'd you get for #1?"
Keltham will actually just go re-write the problems while that's going on, for convenience.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
2. Surprising claims require surprising evidence; unsurprising evidence suffices for unsurprising claims.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
"What does it mean to not know anything. First I said 'not knowing anything is assigning equal weights to each possible future outcome', but that does mean you at least know what the possible outcomes are, so I don't think that's quite it. Then I said knowing things is your negative-two score, which also isn't right because not having any guesses is what not knowing anything is, and you do better in the negative-two game by not having any guesses. And you could say, okay, what does it mean to not have any guesses, can we put that into math. So I tried that.
And what I came up with - with a Fox's Cunning - was, uh, a definition of being surprised: you're surprised by however many twos you lose. So, imagine a predictor that no matter what happens is the same amount of surprised, loses the same amount of twos. The value of consulting that predictor is zero; being the same amount surprised by everything is the same as knowing nothing - and I think actually maybe that's the most satisfying definition of knowing nothing, that the value of consulting you is zero." She puts up an illusion with her notes as she talks; she is talking fast and seems a bit nervous.
(She is not on the light punishment regime, but she doesn't think that's why she's nervous, alter Tonia is just worried she'll get fired if she said something stupid.)
"I had the notion that - it's pointing at - a form of unLawfulness where people try to get out of being caught at being bad at predicting, by being clever at arguing about it. Let's say there's a guide who claims to be very good at unravelling dungeons, so you take them along on a delve, and you get to a splitting path that can go six different ways, with some clues. One person who's already been past that level knows which one of the six paths leads down to the next level and which five lead into trapped rooms. And they ask the person who claims to be a good guide, which path is correct? And the guide could, if you told them a path, come up with an argument for why it was obviously that path. But if you don't tell them which path, and they come up with six arguments for all six paths, then even if those arguments all sound tremendously intelligent and clever, they obviously don't know anything useful."
"If you ask them for probabilities on the six paths, instead of arguments, you can just score them and that's it, that's how well they did and how much, uh, reward they should get paid. So putting numbers and probabilities on things is Lawful and arguing about them isn't."
They'll run through #1, then interpretations of #2, then interpretations of #3...
(Asmodia is a little put out by other people being clever at all, but she's still reasonably sure of her ability to sound more impressive than the sum of all their reasoning, once it's her own turn.)
"So, I mean, for #4, I think for seeing the meaning, it helps to see how obvious it is? Like, sure the equations say that if P(path 2 ◁ fire level) = P(path 2 ◁ water level), then seeing it was path two that led downlevel doesn't give you any information about the next level's elemental orientation being fire or water. But also, if you didn't have to make a prediction no other theory makes, you could go around saying, 'I'm the best predictor in the world, I predict better than Nemamel, yesterday I put 99.9999% probability on the Sun still being on fire today and today it was.' And everybody else would go, incredible, such a prediction, so much probability on the correct outcome, wow!"
Pilar.
Remember that time Ione had to deliver a prophecy about an incoming Nidal attack?
It wouldn't have been a good thing for Asmodeus's interests if the Asmodeans had spent a lot of time questioning how that might be a cunning Nethys plot, before acting on it, right?
Actually, Pilar's curse is just telling Pilar to signal Security to start reading her thoughts - they don't usually waste attention on Pilar, since she's loyal and doesn't usually have suggestions or orders for other people - and Pilar's curse doesn't want Pilar to argue about that.
Security, relay the following to Sevar priority verbatim:
In a few minutes, Pilar's curse will make a request that Pilar might otherwise argue with or doubt or spend too much thought questioning, because she's lacking context. Pilar's curse requests that Sevar command Pilar to obey to the best of her ability, without questioning the request, or spending a lot of energy trying to figure out why her curse is asking this.
The suggestion, when it comes, will be that Pilar not hold back her opinions the way she almost always does, and that she tell Keltham very frankly everything that she actually actually feels about something Keltham will say. As Sevar has already seen, it's sometimes possible to make headway with Keltham by speaking truly from your heart, without trying to manipulate him. Nobody else needs to do anything special so long as that part works.
As it happens, this act will serve the interests of Asmodeus, and Cayden Cailean, and also Broom's god.
The context Pilar is missing is about Broom's god, and that you wouldn't expect Pilar's curse to lie about that part, because that would get Cayden Cailean in trouble. Don't try to actually explain about Broom's god right now, that would distract Pilar.
Order Security to stand by to tap Pilar with Eagle's Splendour when Pilar's curse gives the word. It's probably not necessary, Pilar can probably do it anyways, but it might help her a little. Or if nobody on staff has Eagle's Splendour, there's still enough time to emergency-Teleport one of the eighth-circle wizards in from the front lines so they can use a Limited Wish for that. Haha!
Acknowledged.
Pilar is incredibly fine with this. Pilar is not asking any further questions inside her own mind even. Her curse submitted the request to Sevar instead of herself, which is a proper and Asmodean way to do things, and her superior told her that it was fine to shut up and obey and not ask questions. Pilar wishes that situation would happen to her a lot more often these days. Pilar wishes her curse would do everything like this.
"Yeah, that's not exactly right. If you could coherently predict your future predictions they would be your current predictions, would be more exact."
"But if I'm giving my own interpretations, I should probably go more in order..."
Asmodia starts by giving a less incoherent and rambly version of what she said to Sevar one-and-a-half days ago, about Keltham's problem #1.
At the point where Asmodia describes how, with the full headband on, she could almost see the thoughts inside herself sort of warping and twisting to try to reach out to other things she believed or observed, and claim credit for having predicted them, even though they wouldn't really have predicted that, in order to hold themselves in place, Keltham starts to look a little worried.
On to #2, then!
"We all know already, because Keltham already showed us, how, if something's only a hundredth as likely as something else, you need to see something that's one hundred times more likely, given that thing, in order to believe it."
"So the thing is - I'm not sure how to say this, it's hard to convey, what I was seeing with the headband on - that's like - the equivalent of logic, but governing the things that people usually argue about. It's, the equivalent of which conclusions follow from which premises, for things that aren't true across all worlds. It's why Keltham complains that our books don't make any sense. The books say, this thing happened, that isn't all that unlikely, and they don't say how likely it is in other worlds or prove it's less likely there, and then the book says, well, therefore you must be in this world. The book he's reading doesn't even put a probability on that - just jumps there - even with the headband off, when I took out a book and tried to read it, I realized the way it must have read to Keltham -"
"You need, depending on how you look at it, two or three pieces of information, to feed into a Lawful reasoning step that goes from observing something, to a probable conclusion about it. You need to know how relatively likely two theories seemed to be, compared to each other, before the evidence - I'm not sure where the very first probabilities come from before there's any evidence at all, but don't tell me yet, Keltham, I want to see if I can get that on my own - and you need to know how much probability both of those theories put, on something you saw. In principle you just have to know, how much more likely the sight is, in one case, than in the other, but I don't see how you'd often end up knowing the ratio without knowing the pieces -"
"When I was hoping I could calm down after taking off the artifact headband, I took a random history book in our new library, and flipped through until I got somewhere interesting at all. It was about the assassination of the Prefect of Tandak fifty years ago. The author argued that the assassin probably came from Whitemarch because of which gate they'd used to enter the city, which is the gate you'd use if you arrived at a harbor that ships from Whitemarch use, and the author didn't say anything about whether any other prefectures also sent ships to that harbor or who else used that gate. It was like that thought hadn't occurred to them at all. Were they trying to fool the reader? Then that sure only works to fool very stupid and unLawful readers, doesn't it? Was it put out by a government office in Taldor telling people what they're supposed to think? Maybe, but even then, you'd think - they should at least bother to lie about that, about no other prefectures sending ships to that harbor - if you don't include the probabilities of other prefectures sending ships to that harbor, it's like - you're not even bothering to argue, you might as well print the whole chapter just saying 'Whitemarch did it' and it would say the same thing -"
"Nothing we've thought in Golarion up until this point has been remotely Lawful. We've been talking gibberish from the standpoint of any Lawful outsiders trying to listen to anything we say."
"And it's not just about the big things that are in history books, it's like - looking into the dining hall to see the food there - it would look and smell the same with a Major Illusion, the reason you believe you're actually going to find food there, is because how unlikely it is that anybody would bother to cast Major Illusion on the dining hall, how normal it is for there to be food there, it's not that the sight and smell of food is overpowering evidence that there's no illusion, it's no evidence at all against the illusion, it's just that the illusion was very unlikely to start and stays just as unlikely after you see the evidence."
"With the artifact headband on I could see it, there was like - I could see the structure of the Law overlaid on things, not always, not constantly, because I had no practice, but when I considered any one step of reasoning I could see it there - I could see how the Law was supposed to work, and that my own thoughts weren't fitting into the framework, and I didn't have enough time to correct them all, but I could see how everything I was thinking was completely wrong in the light of that -"
"What you're describing - the Law overlying everything, your own thoughts constantly being held up to that standard and being found wanting, bad, all wrong everywhere, not just on special important occasions when you need to figure out something that matters hugely, but constantly in everyday life - isn't the standard way dath ilani kids are advised to think about things. It's the start of a path that people are advised to think about very carefully, and warned about what potentially happens along it, before they decide to actually go there. The usual rule in dath ilan is that you don't do it because it seems like a vaguely good idea, you do it because you find that you just can't be any other way and still hold yourself together."
"What you're describing isn't - the form of the Law itself, of which there's only one - but a way that people can relate to that Law, of which there are several - and the relationship you're describing isn't one that works for everyone. It's famously one that only works well or healthily for relatively few people."
"The dath ilani call them Keepers."
Probability that Asmodia betrays them. ....Five percent? She has a lot more to lose and less to gain by it than Cayden Cailean. But, well, a Keeper wouldn't participate in this. She's not sure what they'd do instead. Die, she guesses; that's the only real alternative. And Asmodia doesn't even mind dying, if she gets to stop existing after that.
If Asmodia saw an opportunity to sell Keltham to Osirion for the fanciest headband Nefreti Clepati could make, she would.
That's a depressing line of thought so instead she worries about Cayden Cailean. It seems appropriate to worry about something you've just assessed as having a 30 percent chance of causing you and everyone you know to die horribly. She's not even sure she made the call the Grand High Priestess would have; obviously the process the Grand High Priestess uses is something more complicated than 'when gods offer you trades that they claim are mutually beneficial, take them'. Cayden is opposed to them. He says this won't work against them, that He won't use Pilar against them, but he's Chaotic, he could lie.
She's so confused about what Cayden wants. It all seemed so clear, when she was trying to talk the girls into not being scared of Hell; that Asmodeus's victory was so obvious that unlikely gods were backing him. But it doesn't - she doesn't -
The alternative set of theories is that Cayden thinks that Asmodeus will lose and Chaotic Good will triumph. And it's kind of easy to think of ways that might be so.
This failed at cheering her up or distracting her from Asmodia's impending betrayal/surprisingly good lecture at all.
"The problem is - I'm guessing, because this is something we all didn't spend a lot of time thinking about for obvious reasons - is that the Keeper structures and styles of thinking are maybe not that hard to invent, they are just hard to live with and survive."
"I'm now finding it a lot more plausible that yes, in fact, Asmodia did manage to rewire her brain using the artifact headband and now requires a +6 Wisdom headband in order to function, because that is basically roughly the sort of thing you might expect to be true, given the huge numbers of warning signs posted all over the Keepers and everything to do with them, not that we went around asking."
Maybe Gregoria was very sure that alterGregoria would say that but it's still fucking inconvenient what with Asmodia not actually having brain damage. Fuck her life, this is the other reason why you don't lie to Keltham.
...probably. She probably doesn't have brain damage. She thought she was fine after Security lit her hand on fire.
No, she definitely doesn't have brain damage. Keltham didn't predict this in advance or he would have warned people about it. Keltham believes this because he's acting on false information.
Pilar, speak out as soon as Keltham says something that really horrifies you, and remember, even if he's teacher in this classroom he doesn't know anything about Asmodeus and nobody except Aspexia is allowed to correct you in matters of faith. Don't literally tell him about Hell, but aside from that worry less about hiding your Conspiracy than you usually would.
This is going to take more force of will than anything you've done before, not so much to persuade Keltham, which cannot be done by being forceful at him, but for you to actually say what you feel, to be truthful at him.
Security, tap Pilar with Splendour now.
"What sort of worrying implications are we talking about here?" alterAsmodia says, sounding a bit nervous.
Real-Asmodia is trying to figure out exactly how inconvenient it is if they have to do their augmentations in secret, how much damage that potentially does to their illusion of the Ordinary, and is not liking the answer. She has to talk Keltham out of this, somehow, it's just why would alterAsmodia do that -
"If you started generating Keeper thinking spontaneously - and if that wasn't true, now would be a great time to admit it and tell me you had some other good reason for not telling me earlier, which is a lot easier to say to dath ilani than I think Golarion people may realize - then the obvious thought is that trying-to-be-a-Keeper is in some sense the default thing, the natural way people end up relating to Law if not shaped otherwise, but one that makes most people who try it fall apart inside. In which case my dath ilani education was very carefully crafted not to turn me into a Keeper. And I got the education that's tuned to turn people only as smart as I am into not-a-Keeper. And when I amped up my Owl's Wisdom I started to see past it."
"I wouldn't even be saying this out loud except, first of all, basic containment on the dangerous-information has already been disrupted, second, I am not in fact competent to emit dath ilani education that doesn't turn people into damaged not-actually-Keepers and everyone here has already been exposed."
"But since in Golarion you also have no training in not thinking about things you'd rather not think about, I suggest, to whoever with authority is reading this transcript, putting all transcripts of today's lectures especially under high Security classification, and attach a warning especially to people with artifact-grade headbands that looking at today's transcripts comes with a risk of possible brain damage. If you don't have the authority to do that, immediately escalate this issue to somebody who does."
"All of this is literally my thinking in the first minute and pending my spending longer thinking on this. I'm being blindsided here."
Carissa thinks this is - good? Like, it's not what she expected to happen, but not only is Keltham going to be wary of enhancement he's going to be supportive of the Project keeping some secrets from its highest ranks, and he's going to be doing lots of narrowing down in the direction of this theory which might not even be false and which doesn't speak poorly of Cheliax at all.
Of course there's probably about to be another twist that makes this a disaster.
(Security taps Pilar, and gives Carissa a heads-up.)
Nobody has actually gotten around to telling Asmodia that she's in the middle of an Otolmens event, what with Pilar's curse not saying to do that and also her having not been read in on what an Otolmens is!
"What warnings do you get on not trying to be Keepers, like, why shouldn't most people try that, according to the official story?"
"Keepers are constantly going around thinking of themselves as failing, as broken, which is apparently somehow healthy and fine for them, even if it isn't for most brain-typical people, and doesn't wear on their nerves at all. And more importantly there's - structures of human thinking, of motivation - human minds are just not designed to work the way Keepers try to make their minds work - Taldane doesn't have words for the syndromes I want to talk about, which is maybe itself something of a warning sign. The destruction of your desires to do things by questioning those desires too much; never perceiving yourself as having any good options and all roads leading into failure -"
Keltham proceeds, in all deadly grim seriousness, and without apparently the slightest inkling of what anyone here might think of this terrifying risk, to inform his class of Chelish students, inside Cheliax, that failed Keepers supposedly end up very unhappy and two-thirds eventually go into early cryonic suspension.
And that's with people who otherwise had good-enough prospects that the prediction markets said they could try to become Keepers in the first place!
Keltham paid to slightly subsidize a market once on what would actually happen to him if he tried to become a Keeper, just because he was curious, and the chances were 81% on him ending up unhappy enough that it wasn't worth toughing things out and deciding to just wake up in the Future a couple of centuries later, and 97% on regretting ever having tried.
Okay. They'd say this in Taldor, right? Asmodia's not getting any input from Carissa Sevar but it's in keeping with everything else they've told Keltham and it's definitely true in Taldor, right?
"...Keltham, it's possible that what Civilization considers to be an enormous risk to its population of safe happy rich people is not quite the same as what somebody from Golarion would consider to be a really drastic risk."
"And that really doesn't sound like what happened to me while wearing the artifact headband either. I wasn't getting sadder while I was figuring out the Law, I was incredibly happy, maybe literally happier than I've ever been. And afterwards what I ended up with was more like rushing into things headlong, believing that nothing can hurt you. It's why I guessed that telling Security to hold me down and light my hand on fire for thirty seconds might bring me out of it."
"Ninety-seven percent chance of regretting having tried something is a pretty good reason not to try it. I know what you're going to say, you're going to say that Cheliax generally and you personally would think that maybe Keepers are useful for closing the Worldwound or guarding dangerous-information like the kind we've just run across."
"But ending up permanently unhappy to the point where you give up and go to Hell - if this is even something Hell can fix - is not something, that an Evil person should end up just giving away to Good. If I believed otherwise, for myself, having any Good tendencies of my own and a much better picture of the risks, I'd have already asked to put on the most powerful headband available so I could save everyone in Golarion faster. Which I didn't, because it's not just suicide, it's personality suicide. Possibly worse - based on my limited past experience with permadeath from flying machines - than just going to Abaddon and ending up somewhere else afterwards. I'm doing enough for Good, and don't need to do that much more at the expense of sacrificing all the other pieces of myself that also get a vote."
"I am not, personally and selfishly, comfortable with the prospect of disintegrating the personalities of people I know and are coming to like, of watching that happen to them knowing I was responsible. And the thought of it happening to Carissa in particular, I'm noticing, is something I can't face, even though I can guess by now some of what she'll say."
"I can't actually stop the rest of you, I suppose, only advise in the strongest possible terms that you, Asmodia, do not teach material in that vein or neighboring it to others, and to the others here, that they do not try to learn it from you."
"Carissa, do not attempt to become a Keeper. Also, do not try to persuade anyone else here to learn that or teach that. That is an order from me, not as your employer but as your Keltham."
"I've known for as long as I can remember that I'm something flawed and wrong. When I was old enough to understand the teachings of the Church at all, I heard the priest of Lord Asmodeus say that we were made wrong because we had something called free will, and I knew it was true, somehow, even though I now realize I had no idea what that meant until meeting you and hearing about the Law and hearing Asmodia talk just now. I was told there was no hope of fixing it until I got to Hell, I believed that, they believed that, so I was content to let people probably less broken than I am, correct me when I was wrong, and hurt me in that correction so I didn't need to feel guilty for having been wrong. I asked for orders from people better than I was, and obeyed them, because when I did that I was doing the best that a mortal possibly could, maybe they were wrong orders sometimes but if so it wasn't my place to say and I didn't need to think about it. When I was given orders by better people and could just obey them, I was being as right as it's possible for a mortal to be."
"Maybe in dath ilan people like me would end up very unhappy because there's no Church of Asmodeus there to take care of them. When I imagine living in your world, I sure do imagine going right into the cold the next day. Maybe that's why there aren't any people like me left, where you're from. This isn't dath ilan. Here we have Asmodeus."
"And most importantly, not that you understand this, not that you maybe can understand this, it's incredibly clear to me that what Lord Asmodeus wants is for me to learn the proper Law and the proper way of relating to it, not whatever crippled version they teach non-Keepers in dath ilan. It's possible that this is the most important thing Asmodeus wants out of Project Lawful in the first place, for his people to be able to become Keepers. Which means, that's what's going to happen. Period. You have no concept of what it's like to, to give yourself to a god, to follow them, but it's like the way that Carissa is to you but more so, and I will not betray Lord Asmodeus."
"You know how Ione told you that what she wanted from Project Lawful was to follow you where you went, and learn what you learn? And you said that wasn't something that it was the Project's place to ask you to give her, instead of just money?"
"This is what I want from the Project. And it's not your place, or the Project's place, to take that from me or decide it for me."
"Carissa, I order you not to try to become a Keeper or get anyone else to do that for the next day, so I have time to think. Everyone else, don't try to learn from Asmodia teaching in that style, Asmodia, don't try to teach it, for the next day, so I have time to think."
"The previous indefinite orders are rescinded."
Well that could have gone worse. Pilar seems to have successfully conveyed more than half of Asmodeanism without complaint from Keltham. Her heart is hammering in her chest, but. That's got to be points for Ordinary World.
"Can we maybe take a break so I can talk with Keltham?" she asks when the silence is starting to rather ring in her ears.
Carissa's head is spinning and she doesn't actually know what alter Carissa would do here except in the sense that there's an alter Carissa in her heart all the time, the one who is in love with Keltham and doesn't think that's pathetic.
She takes his hand and wishes she could just Dimension Door, that's what fourth-circle wizards do when they want to be somewhere else, but there's the Forbiddance so they have to walk. To her room; it's closest.
"'m not mad at you, you didn't hurt me. I just - want to talk, don't even know exactly where to start -"
" - not with me, not really, though I get why Pilar - Pilar is clearly a lot more devout than me." She chuckles weakly. "I - I'm fine with taking it very very slowly? I'm fine with it taking all this lifetime, if that's what - needs to happen. I don't want to be flawed forever. So I'll become a devil eventually, or a god I guess. I wouldn't want to never be that, it'd be like - never being allowed to grow up?
And - in general Asmodeans are in a hurry to grow up. Because our world isn't the kind of place where you have the luxury of - being basically all right while you figure things out unspoiled."
Is any of that true? Don't ask Carissa, she doesn't know! It feels true enough when she says it.
" - good question. I don't know? Not obviously wrongthought where it feels wrong as soon as you say it. I - hmmm.
Okay, so, separating this out a bit, there is, Pilar would be really unhappy in dath ilan. I don't know if I would, except about the only 97% chance of an afterlife. I wouldn't have - this, wouldn't have you, wouldn't know to look for it, I can already see the bits of dath ilan that would if I'd met them first just kind of get in the way of - who I am, and also no one in dath ilan has any power in the sense I find attractive, so I'd be slightly unsatisfied on that front, but I don't think it'd be the worst thing. I worship Asmodeus, if He didn't exist I'd lose something, but - but not nearly as much as Pilar. Should I keep going into further bits or - was anything about that confusing -"
"I - maybe shouldn't be saying this myself, I don't expect you have any training in - how to hold onto yourself, your you, when people seem to be telling you that you are something else, something not quite true to who you are -"
"But when Pilar told me that it would break something, to order you not to become a Keeper because that might hurt you, part of me was like, oh, yes, obviously on a deep level I know that's true even if I can't explain why."
"I could be wrong. It happens, with deep feelings you can't put into words. That's why selection-on-heritable-variation shaped humans to use words for thinking too, and not just deep unverbalizable senses of truth."
"It's - the thing I wanted the instant I first saw it. To have the Law and be perfect and not have to wait a thousand years until Hell is done with me. To wear the fanciest headband I can get my hands on at all times, to understand everything. I think all wizards are like that, maybe, to some degree. You keep getting a taste of what it'd be like to be smarter.
But -
- okay, when I think about you ordering me not to become a Keeper because it might hurt me, I mostly feel annoyed, like, have you met me, I don't care if things hurt me, I care if they strengthen me. When I think about you ordering me not to become a Keeper because it might hurt you, well, I'm willing to be weaker to be the shape you need. Not forever. But for a while, maybe for as long as you need it because I don't think you'll need it forever.
And Keltham - the most powerful kinds of devil? Becoming them hurts. I don't know the details because it's not, like, physical pain, if it were that you could just take painkillers or something, but it hurts some kind of deeper way, and that's why many people never turn into the most powerful kind of devil.
But I absolutely intended to. Still intend to except insofar as I'm now thinking maybe I want to become an archdevil and command a whole layer of Hell myself."
"I don't want - to lose you, to that - not just in the sense of not having you but in the sense of that Carissa not existing anymore, to anyone, she didn't even crash her flying-machine and go somewhere else she might be happier, she turned into somebody else and that's where her connected-directed-continuity continued -"
"My model of Pilar is telling me that if for you to become an archdevil means losing you then maybe this relationship was always doomed in the first place."
"I... feel like in a lot of ways I'm pretty much the same person as I was at age five? And have noticed that people in Cheliax seem more, changeable, somehow, they seem like less exactly themselves from one moment to the next."
"It feels sad, if I imagine only having you for a year, or ten years, and not forever. Crazy, right, when we've only been together a week? This is why Civilization thinks that people who try to promise themselves to each other into the Future are not virtuous predictors."
"Right now I want you forever and the thought of losing you in a hundred years feels terrifying and I don't know how I'm supposed to coherently reconcile that with the probability of my changing my mind in another two weeks, after we've stayed together twice again as long as we've stayed so far."
"Doesn't matter, my brain is putting higher than eighty percent so there's no bet."
"Why did prophecy have to be shattered here? How can anybody fall in love in a world without that? Not knowing whether this is going to work out is terrifying. I don't want to fall even deeper in love with you and then lose you."
- lean.
"Pilar thinks - Asmodeus wouldn't want us to be weak, and asking us to be weak is - asking us not to listen to Him. Sort of. I don't know that she'd say it that way but I think she's onto something. But if the will of the gods is knowable at all - and often it really isn't, they're doing excessively complicated things you can only see corners of -
- I think Asmodeus also wants me to be yours. Because you were dropped on me, by what must have been a coalition of Law and Chaos and Good and Evil alike, and I have very good spellcraft but the obvious reason for why me isn't the spellcraft, it's that I'd want you the second I met you, like I've never wanted anyone or anything. And so I don't feel torn, between you and Asmodeus, when you want things from me that He'd never ask of the humans who are His, that are vaguely against what we're taught to aspire to, because I think - I think maybe you're supposed to learn this, learn to understand what it is to own someone and what Evil says to do here - at your own pace, and without me about to fall apart if you're too slow -"
"You know, if gods tried pulling this kind of shit back in Civilization, the Keepers would force them to get a signed consent form from me first."
"I realize the alternative was literally my true death and that there was no way to have me read or sign while I was on the plane and the gods are incredibly limited on comms bandwidth but even so, Carissa. Even so."
"I apologize on behalf of our gods for them kidnapping you for their own benefit, and not yours, and applying-a-god-amount-of-optimization-power-at-you-such-that-your-path-was-extremely-overdetermined." Taldane has a single word for that. "I think if your god was part of the coalition then it checked whether you would have agreed with full information, at least."
"It'd be a more comforting thought if the local - not laws of causality, those don't change, the surface rules - if the local rules didn't say that prophecy was shattered for gods and they could no longer apply-a-god-amount-of-optimization-power-at-me-such-that-my-path-was-extremely-overdetermined. Which means, first of all, there might be a big probability of a bad ending, even if on net that's outweighed by probabilities of better endings; and second, that it likely wasn't gods in the first place. Maybe delegates from Good and Evil and Lawfulness and Chaos all signed on; I doubt they wrote the contract, even my own god."
"I don't think we're supposed to think about the gods when we're together, I think we're supposed to work things out for ourselves. The more we do that, the less expensive optimization they have to apply, and also the less they get to determine our futures using values that maybe aren't exactly our values. I wonder if that's, like, the literal opposite of that 'faith' Pilar was talking about, based on the sound of the word."
" - there's something there but I suspect it of being really complicated?" And she doesn't have permission from the Grand High Priestess to raise the question of how to make mortals better at obeying gods, even indirectly, as she'd be tempted to here. "I think of faith as mostly being like - when I'm confused, I don't know the answer but I know that it's known, I know Asmodeus has it, even if I would have to become as a god to understand it. But as I said I'm not as devout as Pilar and if you want to hear the actual proper articulation of it you'd want to ask Subirachs. There's a saying about theology that anything you came up with yourself by thinking about what feels right is almost definitely heretical."
"About how - unprofessional, selfish in excess of standard Evil expected by Cheliax - am I being, if I tell everyone that we're not reconvening for another couple of hours, and tell you to go wait for me in our cuddleroom, you can grab light food first if you want and they've got it or I guess Pilar probably has it otherwise, and come to you in, maybe, five to fifteen minutes - I'll send a message to you if it's going to be longer than that -"
"But how much would I be inconveniencing everyone and how much political capital would I be burning?"
"I think that is considered a wholly normal Chelish amount of selfishness and I for one will be relieved, as I am whenever you're Evil. ...I guess it might make hiring another dozen researchers before we've got results to show slightly harder? But if I were someone high up in the government I'd be glad you were taking care of yourself."
Carissa puts her hair down and stress-prestidigitates it while she thinks.
She has no idea what Pilar's curse is playing at and she doesn't like it. Was it actually trying to help with corrupting Keltham? How? Is it corrupting, for Keltham to realize he doesn't want his possessions to change? But he said eighty percent chance he does, eventually! Maybe it's the seed of - possessiveness? Controllingness? ...doesn't seem like a very Cayden Cailean thing to do even if He is working with Asmodeus now.
Is Cayden Cailean just sincerely concerned about Carissa being held back from her true potential. The line between pride and patheticness is always confusing but that feels well over it.
Though -
- if she's going to fix Hell --
- given Hell's inevitable victory, perhaps the Good gods will support her in making it slightly more Good. If that's what she's doing. Making a part of it Carissa-shaped, and therefore slightly more suitable for the flourishing of certain kinds of people.
....okay, that feels more heretical than anything she's come up with so far, and not in a 'the satisfying Asmodean thrill of learning the rules weren't meant for you' way, in a 'the rules were meant for you and you should have followed them' way.
Maybe Keltham will hit her. Though, let's be real, probably not.
Pilar is in an antechamber of High Priestess Subirachs's office composing a report to the Most High on, among other things, Cayden Cailean interventions that seem worryingly like they might be trying to get her to trust her curse more and more, her curse turning her in for heresy, whether Pilar should in fact trust her curse if it says something about an overlapping interest between Asmodeus and Broom's god in a case where Pilar has no time to ask somebody else trusted for orders, and Pilar having just spoken a worrying amount of theology to a naive impressionable outsider of importance to Asmodeus and Pilar wants to check that she didn't accidentally mislead him.
"Because I spoke angrily to my teacher in class and my faith now requires me to do certain things to be made right about that," Pilar answers Keltham.
...plus now a new entry about how Pilar apparently feels a desire to be corrected for getting above her place in contradicting Keltham, even though Keltham is not actually her superior and is far far below Pilar objectively speaking in Asmodeus's order; and also if Pilar asked Subirachs to correct her about her heretical desire to be corrected for contradicting Keltham then Pilar feels suspiciously like this is cheating cleverness and she is actually really being corrected about having contradicted Keltham.
Message passed to Sevar:
Subirachs here. Keltham's in my office talking about how, when he hurt you shortly after you got back from Abrogail, you gasped and shivered and yielded to him and looked up at him like you were totally vulnerable.
Keltham is saying to me that this instantaneously addicted him, he feels like he needs now to hurt you enough or in the right way to see you react that way again, so he knows you're still his own. He would like to know what he needs to do to see that again, if I know that.
This seems like an opportunity, Chosen, but I do not know how far to push it. Please advise.
Thaaaaaaat ....seems like there's at least a thirty percent chance it's a test. Which really limits how far they can push it, unfortunately.
(....at least a thirty percent chance is the wrong way to have a number, isn't it, even though having a number at all is something she wouldn't have done a week ago. Presumably there's some actual number and - no, it seems valid to just notice it's high enough to take precautions and not figure out how high it is exactly...)
The true answer that it seems like you could also give in alter Cheliax is that on that day, it was far easier for Keltham to hurt me for real, and for me to believe that he could; and he'd have difficulty getting me to believe that, now. And he has something of a reputation for doing difficult things and you don't doubt he could but he'd better be very sure he wants to. And maybe it's safe to point out that it's easier to get me to believe to whatever extent it's actually true, and 'he would never' is a way for it to not be actually true, which hurts both me and him, in the long run.
...does she give different advice if it's a test? Not really, she doesn't think.
Keltham wants to know if I have any ideas about something that he maybe could do, or at least the next step on this path. Chelish people are not exactly like dath ilani, he's getting that, he has healing powers, he's seen Asmodia and Pilar come back from death, there's got to be something that young Kelthams do next when they've reached the limits of what they can do by pinching people.
Carissa consults the Keltham in her head about the sentence 'they whip them, they cut them, they break their bones, they light them on fire', and the Keltham in her head makes a face and says 'but those things seem wrong!'. 'they drug them' is right out, he'll have even more ethics questions about that somehow. Are there conveniently among the high priestesses of Asmodeus potions or something that magnify pain, so Keltham can hurt Carissa a viscerally right-to-Keltham amount and get results like from proper torture? Or spells - she thinks the added level of abstraction away from causing damage will help him go farther -
I don't have such items with me, but the main temple will absolutely have something and this situation certainly warrants an emergency Teleport. Shall I tell Keltham that I will need to spend some time looking through my personal storage and will drop a few things off by his 'cuddleroom' door, with written instructions, once I've found any? Also, Chosen, your directives in regards to actual pain levels or magnification levels? I am not sure you want me requisitioning an agiel for him.
She doesn't really know. Lots of things hurt, and you embrace it and endure it, and there's no such thing as things hurting too much. .... it probably should be more than I can handle, to have me properly frightened, but I don't want to need several days of recovery again?
...well, fine then, Chosen, but the Queen was able to make you look vulnerable, presumably - and indeed, put you into some state where Keltham himself could do that to you with small pains - by some amount of torment short of what it takes to make you ask for something to stop. Apparently.
Work with me here, Chosen. I'm somewhat regretting not following my first impulse to tell Keltham that I could do that to you and should we perhaps try a threesome; if you don't know how to push yourself or how far you must needs be pushed to satisfy him, then I should possibly tell Keltham I need to be nearby and monitoring the situation by unspecified means.
I don't know; I think I will be able to attain it playing it by ear, if Keltham has any way to deliberately vary how much he hurts me, because he and I are going for the same thing here. You can monitor if you consider it wise. I don't - get hurt on purpose, usually, I just handle whatever happens.
She might, possibly, have been tempted to add something about not forgetting that the goal here is to corrupt Keltham rather than enjoying herself. But she is now reading a very very very insane report from Pilar Pineda that may as well go to Egorian on the Teleport. And apparently corrupting Keltham to Asmodeanism is best done via true honesty from Asmodean potential romances brought to him by tropes, perhaps with prompting from Cayden Cailean about Otolmens events, so what does she know, not anything apparently, good luck Aspexia Rugatonn.
Jacint would be pestering this Asmodia for corrigibility lessons, so long as they're both here, just in case it's that simple; but actually on second thought maybe Jacint would rather not succeed the Most High until whatever this is blows over.
NSFW subthread occurs here:
Tldr sfw version containing just the decision theory, dath ilan backstory and technique, and key plot points:
Asmodeus is a god whose concerns span many worlds, more than is true of most of his rivals. There are advantages to a narrow portfolio of worlds on which you intervene; gods that are stretched thinner face sharper tradeoffs, and Asmodeus' great power cancels this disadvantage but could instead be applied to turning it into an advantage. But while to a Good god, the existence of a god with the same values in another world is almost exactly as good as being there yourself, this is not true to an Evil god, or at least not true to Asmodeus; and so where Iomedae would sooner raise another hero in another world than colonize it with Her own church, if She had the chance to do either, Asmodeus works in both of them.
Golarion is nonetheless a substantial and important part of Asmodeus's portfolio; He worked very hard on Cheliax. He is observing closely the events unfolding in the interdiction zone, even forbidden as He is from interfering.
He has questions.
This squirrel over here, a fairly pleasing squirrel, got selected as an oracle by Cayden Cailean, and has maintained her absolute loyalty to Asmodeus and might even be making some genuine progress on becoming the shape Asmodeus wants squirrels to be. This squirrel right nearby burns with conviction in her faith in Him, and with impossible-to-read-from-this-angle plans to alter Hell, while somehow being a cleric of Irori's now.
(Most mortals who want to alter Hell do not have an idea that serves Asmodeus, and in fact it's out of disloyalty to Asmodeus that they imagine His Hell in need of any alteration. But Asmodeus is not impossible to impress, and the scope of his squirrels' current ambitions in Golarion looks like something that would impress Him, if they pull it off; certainly He'd see it tested whether they had anything else interesting in them. And Irori has at least moderately good taste, in picking His favorites, though He doesn't, generally, pick loyal Asmodeans.)
Asmodeus's intervention budget is large, but substantially expended in setting up Cheliax in the first place; it would be costly to Him to act, and also unwise, because He doesn't understand why things are going so well and could easily accidentally make them go worse. But He watches, and He does float, generally, that He'll do information trades relating to His nest of squirrels.
Cayden Cailean has higher-quality information than that potentially on offer and is, of course, far more predictable about providing good value on trades than such a relatively more unreliable being as Asmodeus.
Here's the price if Abadar still wants to know, with an additional discount if He further agrees not to resell the information to Asmodeus.
(It's because the Asmodeans are realizing how far they're running behind your cleric and they're putting him on hold, without him knowing that, so that they have a day to breathe and catch up. They'll probably do it again at least once or twice while waiting for their Rings of Sustenance to kick in.
The actual methodology is petrification and depetrification by Abrogail Thrune.)
Irori has a question, but He fears that the question itself will give more information to Asmodeus than Irori is expecting to receive in return from Him, let alone pay Him. If only there were some other entity around who took a less adversarial stance towards its trade partners!
They are meeting, this time, in a hastily cleaned and not at all decorated storage room, dressed in the least interesting clothing that either of them actually owns. It's not clear that this helps in any way, but one must concede no possible advantage to the 'tropes'.
Abrogail Thrune reads the written proposal from Aspexia Rugatonn without her expression changing in the slightest, then tosses it on the table brought between them.
"In fact, the same thought had occurred to me," says the Queen of Cheliax. "Though in a more intelligent version than this crude plan. I am pleased that you suggested it yourself, though; I will accordingly count this deed as one of the two such requests you may make of me, under my compact."
"No, the thought truly occurred to me, after you told me to despair that we could evade these 'tropes'. I did come into conflict with Keltham; and according to his thoughts, now that such has occurred, my two possible final fates are either to be deposed or to marry him. But I may hope for some flexibility on interpretations."
"I admit, if that was not your logic behind this idea, I have no idea what was. Even you would not suggest this merely in hope of a government more sympathetic to talk of 'corrigibility', not at a juncture this vital where we must somehow bend tropes to our will."
"My thought was that for you to do this thing, without Keltham's knowledge, would make this story irrevocably a dath ilani tragedy. Even if he triumphed in all other ways, his triumph would be poisoned, if we did as I suggest. Then, with the final trend of the story fixed in fate, we can proceed to ensure it is a very great tragedy indeed."
"Fine, yes, it takes some twisting away from sanity, but I can imagine Keltham or his Civilization feeling that his story cannot be a good one so long as this one matter goes awry. You are underestimating how many different ways the 'tropes' could turn that ploy into something his Civilization would consider ultimately a triumph, even if the basic plan goes off as you suggest."
"But that flaw can be repaired, I do think, and sufficiently great tragedy ensured. It is more a defect of your own lack of cleverness than an inherent failure of the premise -"
Aspexia reads the top message first, from Pilar Pineda, without her expression changing in the slightest.
Underneath that is a further sheaf of papers, marked with a hasty and nonstandard warning that the Outsider believes this lecture of Asmodia's could cause brain damage to people with artifact-level headbands. Although, if the reporting Security is tracking this all properly, that is probably Keltham being misled, based on what was actually just one manic episode in Asmodia.
"The subsequent material is marked with a possibly-misguided warning from Keltham that reading it might cause brain damage to those with artifact-grade headbands," Aspexia says, handing both reports to the Queen. "I shall let you read it, then, instead of myself. Tell me of only the consequences for unraveling the Otolmens event."
The Queen reads the cover report, followed by the full transcript.
"Well this is fascinating material. And optimistic in its news, I daresay. If I am reading correctly, most dath ilani are too weak and indulged for them to make proper use of their own Law. We may hope for Asmodeans of true faith to become stronger than their Kelthams, the equals of their Keepers who correct themselves without mercy."
"Really. I would be tempted to read it, save that I could hardly tell the difference if Abrogail Thrune went madder, and so your continued beingness of yourself presents me with no proof about my own safety."
"Set that aside. What of Pilar's curse's claim to her that the deed served Otolmens's interest - was there anything in the transcript which made sense of that? That must be our most urgent question."
"In terms of what stands out within the transcript upon a glance - Keltham said that Keepers would be those responsible for closing the Worldwound, or for guarding such dangerous information as he thought had been created by Asmodia. Fearing the dread consequence of mild unhappiness that might go along with seeking this benefit, he attempted to forbid his women from becoming Keepers or teaching others to become such. Pilar chastised him for standing between his women and Asmodeus, at her curse's prompting, going into some detail on why our Lord would wish it so, and her own nature that seeks to be corrected by Him; and Keltham now seems on course to relent."
"That dath ilan's arts would inevitably destroy our world, absent their Keepers to contain them, is an obvious thought."
"Perhaps too obvious. Cayden Cailean has played a very tight game, and I wonder if this obvious reading, seemingly all helpful compliance and mutual interest, is meant to conceal some deeper sting."
"This act could have advanced Asmodeus's interests in their sum by ensuring that Project Lawful brings the Keepers into existence here, thereby preserving Golarion. While at the same time, for example, giving Keltham more information about Asmodeus than we would have wished."
"With His left hand, somewhere we are not looking, Cayden Cailean sets in motion events detrimental to Asmodeus but also threatening the world. With His right hand, Cayden Cailean averts the greater threats and damages Asmodeus's interests further along the way. And then reassures Pilar that Asmodeus will be better off in the end for her own deeds, compared to if she had never been made oracle."
"Why is everything in that faraway fortress so much more interesting than everything here in Egorian. How dare they lead less predictable lives than mine? It seems hardly fair I am not allowed to become a Project Lawful girl myself, when I am so much better qualified than all those other candidates."
"I can only hope one day we have a Chelish sovereign who considers it beneath her dignity to whine about unfairness like a child too young to remember her last correction for that."
"Show a little patience, your Infernal Majestrix. If all goes according to plan, you will have your own dath ilani to play games against. Better dath ilani, if all your immense optimism bears out about the meaning of today's transcript. Perhaps even -"
"That, going on Keltham's earlier thoughts detected by myself and also his more recent transcripts, I would conjecture to be the domain of 'anthropics'."
"But if the answer is ultimately yes - then I do solemnly avow to you who may be watching, that should the victory be mine, I will do my best to make Evil's victory more interesting to you than any triumph of Good could ever be."
Carissa would honestly be content to just lie here not talking all afternoon, but regrettably she has a job, which is figuring out how well Keltham is taking all of the new things he learned about Asmodean theology. And also being appealingly happy and adorable so he's tempted to keep pushing himself on this front. The two don't obviously go well together, but -
"You are my favorite person," she declares, running a second Prestidigitation on top of the first one so that she can make the sheets trail glitter as she cleans them. "And High Priestess Subirachs is my second favorite person. And Abrogail is my third favorite person, though she'd probably be higher if she hadn't specifically told me to absolutely not go falling in love with her."
"I should probably try to just accept all that and not ask questions. I'm still not seeing the adorable romance of being stabbed in the stomach with an illusionary knife, but then, I've also never understood what any woman I've dated has ever seen in me at all, or for that matter, seen in men in general. I would date women. So my confusion is staying perfectly on trend."
"I actually think I might have half of the explanation for the appeal of being stabbed in the stomach with a fake knife! I was thinking about this while you and Asmodia were flirting. So in dath ilan, a skill people try to display at each other when they're flirting is - intelligence of a very particular type, right - playing on more levels than the other person, making better predictions - and the game itself is appealing in a romantic sense and winning at it is moreso?"
"Right. So - Golarion is a lot more dangerous than dath ilan. And an extremely impressive trait in a person is their - ability to wield power so that they and the people close to them are safe from that danger. So along with signaling intelligence at each other, we signal dangerousness at each other. A dangerous person is one who, if you are theirs, will be competent to defend you, and ruthless about tracking down anyone who murders you and steals your soul or whatever."
"Yeah, somebody killing you and stealing your soul would not be an especially good idea at this point. I wouldn't be my usual cautious, hesitant, timid self about that."
"...I suppose if I asked what it proves to stab somebody with an illusionary knife, while they're chained up and can't fight back, you'd tell me it was more of a direct perceptual update than a carefully reasoned argument."
"Mmmhmm. I have my probabilities that you would be dangerous in my defense and those didn't change much but the part of my brain that instinctively tracks every person around me and how scary they are definitely learned something new about how scary you are. It's much better at listening to knives than reasoned arguments."
"That... actually seems fair, I am more dangerous than I would be if I couldn't manage to do that."
"Though I'd then go on to guess that dath ilani women wouldn't find it romantic to be stabbed like that. At all. And while it's sexy that your combat potential is so much higher than mine, I think you turning that against me - would grate against something very deep inside myself. I think a dath ilani woman would probably feel the same about a man showing that he was willing to be dangerous at her, that it would make him less appealing to her."
"And I doubt Civilization is old enough for us to be that much further away from - the original conditions, the early conditions, when our distant ancestors in dath ilan would have also needed to be dangerous to each other. I'd guess that worlds with masochists have this, and worlds without masochists don't. And so there's more to it than - the reasoning you just described that should go through anywhere dangerous."
" - so I kind of have a theory that dath ilanism might accidentally crush some things about the way I am, so if you had children with it they wouldn't grow into adults with it. But I'm not very sure, i can just sort of feel it in tension and maybe I'd have found a resolution even in dath ilan.
...also at least some of attraction is - in dath ilan even if you had delightfully complicated feelings about your boyfriend being scary towards you, everyone knows that he's not supposed to do that, so it must've been a failure of self-control, and failures of self-control are not generally appealing, and if you told your friends they'd think he was much less valuable and people want lovers they can show off -"
"Even I could analyze a tangle like that, and cut through it simply by describing it out loud to everyone in the room. It's not a complicated or a difficult tangle. To say nothing of the very smart people who are smarter than the other people, or the Keepers."
"I think, though, that - something like what you're describing - could have happened much much earlier in Civilization, before we'd optimized our heritage as much, when people were less intelligent, and had less knowledge of how tangles like that worked. Though it wouldn't be exactly what you're describing, because that would've made sadists less appealing, not made masochists less appealing."
"But either some factor present only in Golarion, like gods, produced the Yaisas and Pilars and Carissas - or they would have existed for me in dath ilani, but somehow got differentially-replicated out of existence hundreds of years earlier. If the latter were true, that'd be awfully sad, but - the former does seem more likely."
Her first instinct is that it seems odd to have people who like hurting others if there was never at any point in history the corresponding thing but it's a stupid thought; historically they'd just have hurt people who didn't like it, and then at some point dath ilan decided to be too Good to allow that .....
...and quite possibly hid all of their history so their enormous population of unhappy sexually unfulfilled sadists wouldn't realize what Good had taken from them.
She feels cold horror, and anger, like she's only felt when she's heard Good people saying truly sickening things like that Hell should be destroyed and every devil with it.
....not the time to voice any of that aloud, though.
"I guess the gods might've done it. ....Pilar was talking at dinner about how her curse worked in testing in Egorian and it struck me as seeming suspiciously optimized to let you have her around both your hangups. Maybe Cayden Cailean works very hard to maintain the ratios of various kinks, in general, and no one appreciates His effort."
"Both her hangups and yours," Carissa clarifies. "Uh, so the specific thing that she said was that they tested under what conditions she could throw a party for someone. Could she - root out corruption by trying to host a 'we caught you being corrupt!' party for everyone in the palace who took bribes to ignore laws, that kind of thing.
And the answer as far as they could tell - you'd have to ask her or Egorian for the whole record of tests" manufactured real-yesterday for this specific ploy "was that she only finds herself somewhere in possession of snacks to hand out if she sincerely wants good for that person and if it's good for her too. People can summon her to their door with snacks by saying 'hey Pilar I want to have fun', but only if they actually want to have fun and only if she will also have fun.
....see where I'm going with this. I didn't say anything to Pilar so as not to ruin the surprise."
"...I'm gonna have to think about whether that counts as nonconsensual mindreading. While carefully ignoring any thoughts about whether Cayden would have already predicted my decision about that, because otherwise my decision is just whatever Cayden tells me it is and then Cayden has nothing meaningful to predict."
"Also, do you know offhand which experiments they did to test the distinction between 'person thinks Pilar will have fun' and 'Pilar will actually have fun'?"
"You'd have to ask Egorian for the list of experiments, or ask Pilar. I think sometimes the source of the result was just, uh, the curse straight-up giving her an impression of why it wasn't cooperating? Like it'd outright say to her 'sure, that'll be good for you' or 'no because someone would get hurt'."
"I... think I have to know Pilar a little better maybe? Just so it didn't feel weird that you were having sex with her at all?"
"But no, I'm not imposing my scruples on you, here. For some reason my brain thinks the Conspiracy is trying to lure me specifically into doing things that Civilization would think are awful, but that model of the Conspiracy isn't particularly chuckling about, like, the Conspiracy telling you and Pilar to get it on one night, if you see what I'm saying."
How would a dath ilani do this. "Presumably if there is a Conspiracy Pilar and I are both gifted top-secret actresses who have collaborated on many similar Conspiracies anyway and our private habits are of no concern to the Conspiracy. ....thought of a way you could check if I'm the person you met at the Worldwound. Should I not tell you?"
" - huh, really? If I was a Conspiracy I would not want random Worldwound wizards in on it, they're probably much worse actresses than my usual Conspirators. Anyway, that spell for noticing spies in other planes that your god gave you before we got the Forbiddance up, possibly as a way to tell us to do a Forbiddance? Glimpse of Beyond? Also detects if people are Polymorphed, which I think Security mentioned at the time but then a bunch of stuff happened."
"Yeah, that is the sort of thing that's more effective if I can spring it as a surprise. Still, I can think of the correct surprising point to spring it, if that's not too obvious, so sure and thanks."
"Plus some additional points from the fact that my god is relatively less likely to be in the Conspiracy and did show me that spell, meaning it wasn't selected to be easy for you to defeat. But it could potentially have been something that only worked if I used it at the right time that day before anyone was prepared for it..."
"I'd rather not talk about this while snuggling right now, I notice."
"I don't know the correct surprising point to spring it.... unless it's while I'm Altering Self anyway in order to not get pregnant, at which time if the spell works as promised you'll see through the Polymorph into my real face and confirm at once that this is my real face and that the spell does see through Polymorphs. In which case that's too obvious.
- and that makes sense. Sorry. We can talk about something nicer."
"If Abrogail seems unreasonably hot, that's a defect of the process you were using to reason about hotness, not a defect of Abrogail, and you should replace this obviously flawed reasoning method with one that finds reality less surprising."
"So how much does it cost to look that hot, are you planning on doing that in the limit of infinite money, would you like me to look hotter because I am not necessarily opposed to this line of reasoning."
"Now that I think about it, if I'm not allowed to leave here, that's going to end up being almost entirely transportation costs to bring somebody here... well, maybe they can hitch a ride on travel that's occurring anyways, if the number of people moving isn't already at capacity... or maybe the part of Governance that does Teleports is on some totally other budget, like Security."
"Well, if it's actually that cheap, I'll probably want to do it just because, you know, I can."
"I'd ask what it takes to turn more resilient, according to you, but I don't feel like re-chaining you and tickling it out of you right now. Is there any equivalent for - becoming physically stronger? Speaking of old fantasies."
"Bull's Strength. Like Owl's Wisdom but for the body. I'd say 'guaranteed not to cause personality changes that can't be easily reverted' but I've started to get kind of superstitious about saying things like that...comes in a spell your god can give you or a permanent magic item, usually a belt."
"...it occurs to me that the 'nobody ever died of' game is probably a lot harder to play in Golarion than in dath ilan, not least because you can't look up the answers. But for the record, when I say something like that - people have died even in Civilization of that, and probably a lot more before Civilization - you can, for example, say 'I object to your statement on the grounds that it is false', and then I can reply with something like, 'No, proximal cause of death was probably air-fuel starvation of the brain in almost all of the cases you're thinking of' or 'Eh they went to an afterlife' and so it continues."
"I have to say, though, it wouldn't have occurred to me to think that being physically stronger would make me more dangerous in any significant sense. It's just something I expected to be fun."
"...not actually seeing it, but I suppose now that you mention it, the Nidal invasion sure had a lot of people waving around big sharp metal objects for a world I would've thought had more dangerous options than that, like the Security wizard with us lighting up the whole perimeter with exploding balls of fire."
"Spells take time to get off and it's reasonably common for demons - or important people - to have magic shielding against spells affecting them. You want wizards and you want a bunch of people with sharp sticks in between the wizards and the problem. Note how Security only got like ten seconds in which to do that. ....also I assume Nidal didn't just want to kill you, so they had to get into melee, there's no way to steal a soul from a distance."
"Probably they had several plans? They'd have to get you out of the Forbiddance alive to put you in a pocket dimension. They could also have tried turning you into an insensible animal and kidnapping that. I know there's a powerful spell called Soul Bind for imprisoning the soul of a person as they die but I don't know what preparation that would've needed - would've required them to be in melee, though - it's too bad Kuthites are so hard to interrogate usefully -"
"Subject matter too grim, change topic."
Of course his mind goes on thinking anyways. Is Carissa implying that Kuthites are harder to interrogate because Chelish interrogation tries to use pain as an interrogation tool?
Probably.
Keltham adds it to a list of things that are actually worrying - not so much on Conspiracy theory, why would she say that on the Conspiracy - as on the possibility that there's some final and deepest piece of Golarion Bad News that requires him to build Civilization here only far away from every existing government in this world, and play that hand only once he is ready to defeat them all in open military battle.
...he'd rather not talk about that, look in that direction, right now. If that final grimdark realization comes, it will come at the point where all of his relationships that he wants to advance have advanced far enough for those women to follow him.</eroLARP-reasoning>
"I admit, I hadn't particularly thought before about the question, wait, why is Jacint Subirachs a priestess of Asmodeus, which was not what I'd thought Asmodeus was particularly about. I can see how she might be the opposite side of Pilar, but not what either of those things have to do with Asmodeus in the first place. Asmodeus's concerns are pride, contracts, Law in whatever sense you meant that word before you knew me, and being the chief executive of Hell, right?"
"Did it translate as 'being the chief executive of Hell'? I guess Baseline doesn't have the concept. One of Asmodeus's domains of concern is ...trying for words you'll have...power. Not just in the sense that He rules Hell but also in the sense that power relations between individuals are of interest to Him and understood to be a way of relating to Him. This thing -" she leans into him - "is pleasing to Asmodeus, insofar as He can notice what mortals are doing at all."
"Did, he, like, make people like Pilar, who don't want to have free will anymore..."
Keltham thinks, but does not say, people like you; thinks, but does not say, that making there be masochists is ethically questionable behavior for a god and possibly the sort of behavior that causes Golarion Civilization to arrest one.
He doesn't actually believe that it's wrong for masochists to exist, but he hasn't really thought about it either; and it can be wrong to make a person who is then not wrong in themselves to exist, as Keltham's parents thought of themselves and Keltham.
"He made people who didn't have free will, who belonged to Law, and made the correct choice with no real sense they could instead make the incorrect choice as it wasn't in their natures, and other gods broke that, and that produced the current situation where people have free will but some of them don't want it. As I understand it; probably ask Subirachs if that has implications as weird and surprising as the Abyss being infinite, because I've always been of the 'if mortals are known to predictably get confused about this then I'll just wait until I'm a devil' school of thought, when it comes to theology."
Keltham is relieved but only slightly; he has a sense from prior grimdark experience of a Golarion Doomfact possibly hovering somewhere just out of his vision, but he doesn't know the exact direction to look, and maybe rather wouldn't right now.
"Infinite Abyss level weird implications, no. What does Asmodeus think about Pilar's obligate fetish? Or what does his Church say about ethics and procedures there?"
"The Church would say that it makes her - a very valuable possession, for the kind of person who wants and needs that, the kind of person who can complete her, and she ought to have it, and that it's not just an ordinary crime - though obviously depending on details it might be an ordinary crime - but also a sort of sacrilege, to have a possession like that and not treasure her and protect her and ensure that she finds fulfillment."
It's not really landing. Civilization - probably wouldn't end up saying that? Or if the argument landed, it would be an argument meshing more smoothly into Civilization-frameworks that Carissa doesn't know about, that Keltham isn't sure he really knows about to the level he maybe should.
Would the Kelthamverse end up saying it?
"Pilar isn't anyone's possession right now, is she? What determines who gets to have her, if she can't say yes to it?"
"Well now we've got Cayden Cailean involved, I don't really know how that changes things. I think a lot of people like Pilar - just have Asmodeus in that place, their whole life, and their romantic life isn't spectacularly fulfilling? Or some - give themselves to Asmodeus's priests, since those He's vetted, where by 'give themselves' I mean something like 'make themselves known and see if there are takers'. Or some discover that nature in themselves after they're in a relationship like ours, though Pilar seems to not have that route available since she figured it out about herself already.
I think probably if you don't end up growing in a direction where you want her and Subirachs thinks you'd be good for her, then she'll get picked up by a very important Asmodean priest, given the circles she's moving in these days. But right now even if any of them noticed her they'd, uh, wait and see if you do grow in that direction, given the givens."
"My brain keeps thinking I ought to figure out a sufficiently surprising test and direct it here, and I'm asking my brain why the Conspiracy would be faking this particular thing of all things, and my brain is not answering."
"Uh, don't figure out a clever way to prove it to me, I think this is a case where I take Civilization's standard Security advice and think of the test myself. It also includes proverbs about listening to your brain, even though your brain is really actually not always correct."
Snuggle. "Makes sense. I won't suggest any tests.
....and I just thought of like three. Sorry. It's just an interesting challenge.
Pilar doesn't need you, anyway. If you don't ever want her and no priest ever picks her up then maybe she'll go to Hell early, at absolute worst."
Ah, Keltham. She tries not to be distressed; she'd be confused by this, not distressed, in alter Cheliax. "I'd give decent odds Subirachs has several at home, actually, but yeah, the reason Pilar can probably land a priest of Asmodeus is because she's important and interesting now, not every girl like her is going to get a Subirachs. I think lots of people like Pilar are unfulfilled."
Why does it feel like this to talk to Keltham even when you're not lying to him. Admittedly she's mostly not lying to him in the sense of having only the foggiest sense what civilians get up to . "...it's not unthinkable? I don't know how common it is but I wouldn't be surprised to hear about it. I bet Pilar could aim higher, is all."
His arms tighten around her. "I'm sorry. I don't want to talk about this, maybe shouldn't talk about it for a bit. I should go with Yaisa before I go anywhere near Pilar, and I know that in the Conspiracy it wouldn't be that you were making this all up yourself and I caught you out in an inconsistency that easily, but -"
"I thought I'd be less scared than this, after the Suggestion spell, but now I'm in love with you and lose you if masochists are a Conspiracy invention and now I'm actually scared about that."
"I'll ask Subirachs. It's stupid for me to be talking about this with you of all people, that's just being cruel to myself."
"And Subirachs is going to say something about - I shouldn't say it out loud. Not if I'm actually going to try to test the Conspiracy on this, even though, even though why would the Conspiracy be doing that if the plan isn't just to hurt me as much as possible. Don't answer that either, if I'm going to play that game with anybody I'll ask Asmodia."
...some part of his brain does seem to be convinced that letting himself fall in love with Carissa, as much as that looked like the courageous act of living your own best life and not backing away from that out of simple fear, on the surface appearances of things, was actually a huge mistake.
Keltham floats the internal argument that, if so, he has in fact already now made that mistake and might as well go all in on it, and that what comes of it will come.
...it lands a little, maybe.
"If I could make safe Wishes," Keltham whispers, "ones that should not work even in a world of magic, I'd Wish that all the Kelthams across all the worlds could ask one true question to their Carissa of the Conspiracy, no matter how rare she is among their worlds, to ask her if somehow even she loves him, or maybe just, if she's okay despite having to play the role of being tortured -"
"I don't know why I'm thinking that. She'd just be like 'no obviously', and how would that help."
"I might not be imagining the same Conspiracy as you and I don't have the slightest idea what I could say that would - capture the Carissae in the conspiracy that you're imagining, meaningfully -
- like, I can swear to it, I'm tempted to, but I'd be scared that - Carissa in the Conspiracy just - condemns herself to Abaddon and burns the Law and becomes someone who can never serve at the Worldwound and who can't sustain a world that fights the Worldwound at all - because I don't understand what Carissa in the Conspiracy wants so I'm not sure it makes sense to say she wouldn't do that -"
"Don't swear to it, that reasoning is correct. Maybe I just want to hear her say no, so that those Kelthams can apologize to her, and go back to their more probable Carissas. Why am I thinking so much about her, she's not you."
"You don't have to solve this problem. Basic Security reasoning says you can't, I have to, and the way it gets solved is that I orient to Golarion and play the game against people who aren't you and rule out at least the Conspiracies that are weak enough that they can't just synthesize real masochists, rule out the Conspiracies that have to improvise after I run into Carissa at the Worldwound and whose scans didn't detect me the instant I showed up in Golarion, because those weaker Conspiracies, I could catch, and if they're enough smarter than I am then I'll never know, but also you won't be hurting, because that's not what's efficient if they have the power to eliminate that risk of being caught, you'll just be an actual masochist they made for me, or maybe not exist at all except as a more complicated illusion, and if so I'll never find out, and I'll know that, and someday I'll go to a Lawful being who doesn't answer to Asmodeus and say that I'm looking to buy a consensual permanent version of a Suggestion to not have to think about that possibility anymore unless I deliberately decide to, and then I'll be done and able to live inside Golarion as it appears to be."
"I genuinely don't see how you get a better ending than that even as a god. There could always be a bigger god that's fooling you."
"And we have now lain in bed long enough for the conversation to turn incredibly depressing, which is silly, and next time, we should get out of bed while we're still ahead of ourselves on points."
He follows.
"There isn't a biggest god any more than there's a biggest number. I mean, as a large enough god, much bigger than Asmodeus by the sound of it, maybe you can calculate where you mostly are inside Reality directly, but there could still be a larger god containing you and messing with your calculations and then that's the possibility you'd rewrite yourself to not bother thinking about anymore."
"I suppose there could be some clever solution I'm not seeing due to not actually being even a small god."
Meanwhile, the Project Lawful researchers have decided that Pilar is usually a pretty nice person so long as you don't punch her in the faith, but can be provoked. Asmodia sends Pilar to ask Maillol for tips on how that sort of thing works with the worshippers of other gods, which Maillol can in fact provide her; though Maillol also informs Asmodia afterwards that he, Maillol, is not particularly tolerant of attempts to duck out potential punishments by sending your subordinate to annoy somebody instead of doing that yourself.
The Conspirators work some on figuring out who they are in alter-Cheliax, and spend some time reading in the library because that's probably what non-Asmodeans do?? If Keltham asks they were mostly reading in the library or getting in some magical practice.
Keltham and Carissa arrive rather late to lunch, but there's sufficient food left to feed them.
Afterwards Keltham announces that he needs to think over the whole Keeper thing in the back of his mind; and also in fact, he does have work to be done at some point which isn't lessons: namely, writing up an interim contract between the Project and Cheliax, and of course writing up a contract for the Project itself. He's sorry for not thinking ahead to this part earlier, but yeah, everybody go take the rest of the day off, or catch up on things. He'll figure out by tomorrow what to do about the Keeper business.
And Keltham writes up the contracts, or rather, sketches what should be in them; there's no point in going formal or handing it to somebody like Lrilatha before having negotiated the pieces. He does successfully remember to actually use the Lesser Restoration on himself when he starts feeling tired. When he's done, he writes up a summary of the key points and ideas, and hands it in to Maillol to hopefully make its way to some appropriate person in Governance.
Flirting occurs at dinnertime, but of the girls no longer employed by Project Lawful, only Yaisa attempts to flirt with Keltham. He doesn't take anybody to the cuddleroom; that part of him feels a little tired, but only in a temporary way.
Keltham takes time for wizard practice as well, and successfully hangs an Auditory Hallucination. It only targets one person per level, alas, unlike Silent Image, so he uses it to play some of Civilization's professional-level music for Carissa, pieces Keltham has listened to often enough to remember in due order.
And then Keltham goes to sleep, and shortly before dawn becomes a statue.
"What actually am I missing about the allocation of Pilars and the allocation of people suitable for them, do they mostly end up snatched up by people who aren't very suitable, or are a lot of nobles suitable..." Carissa asks Subirachs during her debrief once Keltham's gone to sleep. Her Ring of Sustenance has kicked in, and she feels more rested just in the anticipation of the extra six hours, even before she's had them.
"I remind you - gently, because it is in one way a good sign that you are making this mistake, though a potentially fatal mistake if untreated - that the real Pilar does not have an obligate rape fetish."
"The alter-Pilars of the real Cheliax, if that phrase makes sense, are a great deal less in want than I imagine they should be in alter-Cheliax. In the true Cheliax, most people who can afford to keep an alter-Pilar can choose from any number of prey without a rape fetish, and most of those with power and wealth in Cheliax would find that the more satisfying alternative. I apologize; it should have been my place as well as yours to realize that in alter-Cheliax they would be in greater demand than here, before Keltham asked after it."
" - right.
I think I don't know enough about real Cheliax to be good at thinking where I'll need to lie.
Before Keltham....I rather intended to run my magic shop and never leave it and not come to anyone powerful's attention, in significant part because they might rape me though also because they might murder me, and I'm not sure if that was a fault of mine, or - a cost Cheliax is paying because it's cheaper than other ways of getting tyranny, or - if someone would've at some point corrected me in that - but it seems wasteful."
"I might previously have had a different answer, but I now think we're not actually very Lawful compared to how Evil we are."
"If we are talking about the typical magic-shop owner, then I think they in fact just wouldn't have any grand ambitions of serving Asmodeus that we should be encouraging. Maybe missing a few Carissa Sevars into the mix is a problem we cannot avoid at our levels of Law. It would be a more plausible argument if you didn't have a native Intelligence of 18 or the Spellcraft that you did..."
"I think we're failing to pick up on potential Inner Ring members who'd serve Asmodeus better as more than shopkeepers. I don't have a good idea yet of how the new Cheliax could do better. Except that there could be a dath ilani track for people with native intelligences of 18, and then, something about Keltham strikes me as not the type to hide in his magic shop and never come to anyone's attention, but I could not begin to guess which portion of Law that represents..."
"I think a lot of the real answer is that the real Cheliax is just not very organized by dath ilani standards. We aren't sweeping peasant villages for alter-Pilars and training the most attractive and Intelligent ones for sale to the highest bidders that might make a more Asmodean use of them, because we simply aren't rich enough to afford infrastructure like that."
"If it's Law, you're going to have to figure it out, or maybe Asmodia. The only way I can make headway on it myself is by imagining that dath ilan shaped Keltham from childhood not to become his Evil self, in ways hidden from him. We may be doing the equivalent of wandering through a dungeon laid in his mind to prevent his escape, and wondering why there are so many traps lying around, where did they come from, who would put a spike pit there."
"Rings - partially true. He said a bunch of things about how he only cares what Civilization would think of him in the sense that Civilization is sensible but - I think it's why the possibility that we're specifically trying to get him to do things his civilization would abhor looms so large. I think dath ilan would be incredibly hostile to anyone actually Evil and he admits it tried quite hard to make sure he never learned he likes hurting people during sex...the Law part is separate from that, though. If I were to take a stab at it I'd say that - if everyone will predictably not choose their course of action based on threats, then there's no point issuing them, so dath ilan worked incredibly hard to make everyone believe about themselves and about everyone else that they predictably won't choose their course of action based on threats. Which is just false of normal humans but maybe they managed to make it true enough about dath ilani."
Subirachs doesn't see where Sevar is going with this - Subirachs is not currently having Detect Thoughts run on Sevar, it doesn't seem important enough and Security burns a lot of those spells in Project Lawful - but maybe she's only meant to serve as a listening-pet to the Chosen of Asmodeus, at this point.
"If my bedroom partners were immune to threats, they would be less fun in many ways, but that would leave enough forms of fun left to still take them," Jacint ventures. "Being immune to threats, if that could be done, is not the same as being able to avoid reacting to pain in interesting ways."
- nod. "And also it's only a threat in the relevant sense, I think, if it's costly to do and you're doing it anyway as followthrough on the commitment, made in the hope you wouldn't have to pay it - like, that we will flog thieves, that's a threat, because no one wants to expend all the resources tracking down and flogging the thieves, but if we didn't then there'd be lots of them.
If you say, I want to torture people to death, I just enjoy it, it's fun, but for reasons of maintaining a functioning organization I commit to restraining unless you betray me, at which point I'll do the thing I want to do -
- not a threat. I think. I should run this by Asmodia, but Keltham's built off it at a very deep level and it might be an edge Evil dath ilan has, that we can credibly promise punishment even to the kind of entity that doesn't respond to threats as long as we're doing it because we genuinely love and enjoy it."
"My mind's picture of Keltham's Civilization reacts by turning all our lands into fire and ash, if they can, or turning their own lands to fire and ash if they cannot. But perhaps I attribute too much pride to them."
"The Most High would know for certain how gods would see it."
"I hope that's not true of Keltham's Civilization. I don't want to lose him like that. I hope that even once it breaks he'll look at us and see something that he is willing to live in the same world as. But maybe he won't, and then we kill him."
And the only way she can protect him is by changing his mind.
Or, if she's wrong to think that Cheliax would win, then the only way she can protect the whole world is by changing his mind.
Well, fine, then, she'll do that.
"We are not forbidden to kill him."
"We are forbidden to Maledict him, so it amounts to giving him to Abadar and thence to Osirion, and we can't keep him prisoner here either."
"Whatever game is occurring, Asmodeus has not allowed us any easy lesser victories in it."
"We can't even Maledict Ione, and if she revives in Nethys's grand temple in Sothis, knowing what she already knows of Law and Keltham -"
"Maybe the Most High would contradict my interpretation, in fact I rather suspect she would, it is not the place of 7th-circle priestesses to set their wits against those of gods. But to me it feels as if we are being told, maybe even by tropes, to submit and play the game that was set for us."
(Civilization's hypothetical policy toward things that really really want to minimize your utility function unless you pay them $5, and which totally didn't get there by strategic self-modification no really, is in fact to pay any costs required to remove them from reality.
You could rationalize it by saying that you expect most of those entities did get there by strategic self-modification even if they say otherwise, or via some error that their ancestors are less likely to make if it's obvious that's how most of the potential victims will respond.
But that's only part of the reason. The other part is that if you're finding yourself inside horrible broken counterfactuals that shouldn't exist in the first place and some bastards went and fucked up actual reality, well, even the Keepers did start out as human at one point, so fuck all those aforesaid bastards.)
Usually when Security suddenly comes for you in the middle of the night while you're catching up on your Project's paperwork, the scenario in which this happens is a lot more scary than the one Carissa Sevar is confronting right now.
The Security usually isn't kneeling to you with their head bowed, for one thing.
"My name is Olegario, 5th-circle, conjuration specialist. I was the Security who watched over Subirachs's office while you spoke to her of your thoughts on creating a place for dath ilani in Hell."
"I fear Hell. If it is not heresy to do so, and offends not Queen nor Church nor Hell, I would offer my allegiance to you in hopes of receiving whatever place in Hell there may be for the vassals of dath ilani who are not dath ilani themselves."
Oh.
Well, there's going to be a lot of that, if she really does build something that's able to use more of people than the rest of Hell is building.
(Or even if she doesn't, but people hold out hope that she might.)
She feels dizzy. It feels like somehow even though the stakes were plainly high enough for a godwar they just keep getting higher. She has to win Keltham or he'll set up a Civilization built off one that would destroy them if it could. She has to fix Hell or - possibly billions of people - will go there and get weaker, because no one knows how to use them - caring about other people is pathetic but it's sort of allowed if they belong to you, which is precisely what he's offering -
- or it could be a test. But if it's a test she's not sure what it's testing. It isn't heretical to make agreements that explicitly specify themselves to hold as long as they displease none of the Church or the Queen or Hell itself; it approximately can't be.
(It could be Abrogail! volunteers the part of her brain that seems to have assigned itself the role of declaring that everything and everyone could be Abrogail.)
She takes a moment to think. That's probably terrifying, to him, but you're supposed to take a moment to think if you're doing anything actually serious, and this is incredibly serious.
"If it offends not Church nor Queen nor Hell, I accept your allegiance," she says, "though I'll have to build Evil dath ilan before I can even begin to guess the use it will have for its vassals. I - don't predict that it would have none."
Olegario thought somehow that the Chosen of Asmodeus would already know what wouldn't offend Church nor Queen nor Hell. There is in his stomach the sickening feeling of having taken the wrong risk, a foolish risk, a doomed risk. Should he have waited? But the Chosen will have half of Cheliax wanting to swear to her, if the opportunity becomes known and less risky, and she would have less use for a 5th-circle then.
He rises. "I go then to watch over you, as is my duty this night," he says, and steps through her door to put back on his Invisibility ring.
The Chosen of Asmodeus really really wishes she knew what would offend Church or Queen or Hell but you see actually she's just fourth-circle herself and holding all this together through the sheer conviction that a Fly spell can't expire if you aren't looking at your watch.
Okay, maybe she knows some things. Abrogail's not going to object. Abrogail would pay attention to Carissa amassing an independent power base but Carissa's pretty sure at this point Abrogail's correctly assessed Carissa as not at all a threat on that front, and also fifth-circle conjuration specialists aren't even dangerous in that evaluation, especially. Hell...presumably owns the wizard's soul, and if she makes it known she wants to buy it the price will spike wildly....she wishes she could tell Keltham about this, he'd be a delightful accomplice in trying to solve problems like that -
So that's just Church, to check. She goes to Maillol's office; this feels like a thing that has to do with Carissa's fairly inadequate tyranny.
Well, if this is one of those Carissa-errors that actually can be solved by hurting her then that'd be good news since so many of them apparently can't and if it can't then it's going to boil down to 'it's allowed if you genuinely succeed at serving Asmodeus with all this nonsense and otherwise not' which is the place Carissa has been for a long time.
And she has tomorrow off! There's that!
She writes a note for the next dispatch to the Most High that Olegario has if it does not offend Church, Queen and Hell offered Carissa his allegiance, and she accepted if those conditions obtain, and then went to check if the conditions in fact obtained, and now repents of her error in not asking first whether, in fact, the Church is so offended, which she is given to understand is a matter for the Most High.
...there's an unfamiliar person wearing spiky armor in her bedroom, holding a black candle in one hand that burns with a blood-red flame.
Right, well, it's not like her life has been normal for a while. "I think I'd like to hear an authorization code sometime about now," says Asmodia, because that's what Security would like her to say.
Uh huh.
Asmodia gets out of her bed, wearing the same student uniform that you might as well call your pajamas as an Ostenso wizard student. She goes on past the spiky woman to test the door to her bedroom, finds it locked.
She tries to snuff the candle with a Mage Hand. There's no counterspell visible to her Arcane Sight, but the candle goes on burning.
Asmodia goes to sit on her bed, illuminates her room with a simple cantrip, and raises her eyebrows at her visitor.
"Anyone can be bought for the right price. You might have some trouble finding mine."
Actually, that's sort of alterCheliax Asmodia, not real Asmodia... well, she's not as sure what realAsmodia says anyways, that would require actual thinking and it's way too early in the morning.
Asmodia's thoughts show that, first of all, she's pretty sure this is a test, second, that's not even much better than the offer she already got from the Most High, and third -
Asmodia's thoughts abruptly cut out.
Now that is truly interesting, not that Asmodia was being particularly boring in the first place.
"Teaching the Law you've learned, somewhere far from Cheliax, to patrons who reward with more than a simple surcease of punishment," the mysterious visitor ventures.
"Thank you blatant loyalty test. I'd like to get back to sleep now so I can prepare spells tomorrow, and oh, by the way, do my important job for Cheliax. Did somebody miss the part where I just said under Keltham's truthspell that I want the Project to be able to continue doing what it's doing?"
In case someone, somewhere, cares about me more than that.
"You didn't significantly outbid Aspexia Rugatonn, I'm having more fun than I've ever had in my life doing what I'm currently doing, I would actually like to see the Project continue its work, and my trying to go anywhere Keltham can't flirt with me is prohibited by factors I have no reason to think you're cleared to know about. May I go back to sleep now?"
Asmodia gets Gorthoklek's authorization, hands it over. "Okay. Hell's bullshit you're not cleared to know about. And I really hope for your sake that you were telling the truth about no other Security listening, because if you were lying about that, we're going to have to call them in to get the same orders, now that you went and said all that out loud."
"Otherwise get out of my bedroom, admit to your superior that you failed at running a convincing loyalty test and take whatever punishment goes with that, and don't mention anything about my opaque thoughts in your report. Understood?"
"Understood," says Abrogail Thrune II, reigning Queen of Cheliax, and bows her head submissively.
She hasn't actually had a chance to consider the implications of Gorthoklek's authorization, which is not particularly written in such fashion as to exclude Abrogail Thrune from the scope of Hell's command. Abrogail would as soon not do anything with Asmodia she can't undo, before she's had that chance to think, and this pathway does least.
Besides. It potentially sets up an interesting reveal later.
And suddenly there's nobody in her bedroom, without any magical phenomena or illusions having been particularly visible to her Arcane Sight.
A slight prickle of unease pokes at Asmodia, then. There are people in Cheliax who can do that, but not a lot of them... she thinks. Who knows what Security actually gets up to, or what you can do with items... the whole thing seems kind of weird, suddenly, in light of that weird ending.
"Was that a trope?" Asmodia says out loud in her bedroom, and goes outside to briefly report an appropriately censored version of the encounter to Security.
A long oval table has been set up on a rampart of the fortress, overlooking the ocean in one direction, in another direction lit by the morning sun. At present, only five people are sitting here, all of whom have been spending too much time indoors of late. Tea is available, and light snacks of the highest quality, but they are mostly being ignored.
The time indoors is not really wearing on her; there's only sunlight six months of the year, at the Worldwound border that Cheliax holds.
But everything else is kind of wearing on her, such as having to act like she belongs in present company. Not that she's doing a bad job of concealing that she's still scared of them all, but she bets they all (except possibly Maillol) can tell.
"Most High," she says, "I had a question for you." Two, actually, but this one makes her look good so she wants to ask it first.
"Keltham spoke to us of how, in dath ilan, a group of non-conspirators credibly accused of being in a conspiracy would try to pick the set of actions that would most disadvantage the conspiracy, as an act of cooperation with Civilization in the worlds in which there was a conspiracy in truth, and for the same reason, a person accused of a murder wrongfully would give the police great detail on their potential motives and reasons to commit it.
It occurred to me last night that -"
" - so I, and I think many other people, are in a state of uncertainty about whether I am in fact Chosen by Asmodeus for a work that will require, or at least that has allowance for, the errors and heresies I've fallen into in the course of pursuing it, or whether I am like Pilar and Ione the product of the intervention of some other power, presumably acting with Asmodeus's agreement but not necessarily in His interests. I imagine you have a guess, but I'm not asking for it; I know what I'm meant to know, and it's obvious why I wouldn't be meant to know more.
But I understand, then, that a dath ilani in my position would try to - cooperate with the Church across the worlds in which she is acting in Asmodeus's interests and the worlds in which she is, against her own will, acting against them, and can't be told so. By doing things which make me easy to countermand or undermine in those worlds where I need countermanding or undermining, or by - closing routes that I'd only need if I later desired to betray us.
I see why this wouldn't have been pointed out to me, lest it raise to my attention in the first place that I don't know whether Asmodeus chose me or not. But now that I reasoned through it, is there by any chance a standard list of things I can do."
"I suppose that decisively answers the question of whether exposing people to Keltham can turn them into Aspexia Rugatonn, because that is the most Aspexia Rugatonn thing that has ever been said by anyone who is not Aspexia Rugatonn."
(She's still keeping it professional and still won't be looking at Carissa's thoughts.)
"Alas, your Infernal Majestrix, it is easier to sound like me than to be me."
"Sevar. When your thoughts become that complicated, it is time to simplify them if at all possible. You are no true dath ilani as yet."
"The first fundamental principle, in any case where Asmodeus's orders have been given, is to follow Asmodeus's orders. I'm not sure you appreciate the gift you are given in having orders you can follow. I must usually operate without them, myself."
"Whatever the unclarity of His vision of the mortal realm, Asmodeus does balance across worlds like those you describe without the slightest difficulty. Perhaps, indeed, the orders to let you travel beyond Cheliax without selling your soul are to the advantage of some other god hoping to receive you from us. Or perhaps they are intended to let you wait on a higher soul-price, and yet follow Keltham in some circumstance where you should and must, to Asmodeus's advantage."
"Suppose we can be confident that the first case was always the one that held, that it is only to some other god's advantage that you have freedom of travel. Even if we are certain of this we must not disobey our orders, not push them around the edges to what we think is our Lord's advantage, because the effect of that is simply to require our Lord to work harder to instruct us when some other god pays Him to grant someone freedom of travel."
"Our Lord has gone to great lengths to make the Asmodean system one of obedience once orders have been given. It is in His nature as a god, and when we try to make Him work through means whose nature is contrary to giving orders to be obeyed, making Him take into account our possible disobedience or edge-flirtation, we are going against His nature and costing Him yet more."
"How do we balance our choices across the worlds that might be, the reasons our Lord might have, His possible interests, His likely goals? If we have orders, the answer is, by just obeying Him."
"What is it that you think not covered by our orders, of which you'd ask such complicated questions?"
"I'd say that possibilities like these are exactly why I visited you in your bedroom to check your loyalties, that morning. But in fact, this is so vastly worse than any possibility I'd actually envisioned. You are very lucky to have the quality of being visibly and clearly loyal to me personally."
"It is not apparent to me that we need especially complicated reasoning to handle this issue. Why not just say among ourselves that we are uncertain about whether you are Chosen only of Asmodeus or Chosen of some other or Chosen perhaps of both, and then proceed in the face of that uncertainty? We know of Hell that our Lord is eager to have you, that your price there is somewhere beyond vast, He has instructed you to serve him well in this world and come to Him in Hell to be treasured by Him. It is not a negligible imprimatur, whether the original spur for it was Asmodeus or an old pact or new bargain."
"What you are looking for, I think, is some assurance that your theology is correct, that your plans for Hell are correct, and this is a kind of assurance that is problematic to get into a habit of seeking, even if you are Chosen of Asmodeus and no other. What if you are roughly on the right track, but destined to arrive at better theology and better plans in eighty-one days instead of nine?"
"And if you are not originally Chosen of Asmodeus and no other? Then He nonetheless instructed you to serve Him well in this world and be raised high in it, and indicated that you were a soul who might be exceptionally treasured by Him in Hell, and Hell's vast price on you is justified to us as centering around your ability to produce better devils, though we are told that of other matters it is forbidden to speak. We can scarcely assume your ideas wrong, even if we somehow know for certain that you were singled out by some other god."
"So we must proceed regardless with care for the case where your plans make sense, and care for the case where they do not. You are loyal to us either way, for in either case you are the Carissa Sevar that stands before me and whose thoughts lie open to my examination. You do not need to play games against a version of yourself opposed to us whose mind I cannot read. You are simply yourself planning across two possibilities, and we can simplify away all the complications of which Keltham spoke in his own case, where possible people he is dealing with have intentions and wills explicitly opposed to their other possible selves."
"It is all too easy to introduce complications that sound like Aspexia Rugatonn. The true qualification for being her is being able to simplify away those complications that were not needed, and introduce those that were missing."
"Yes, Most High."
Probably she'd still be loyal if she knew some other god had chosen her. She hates Nethys and doesn't think much of Cayden Cailean. Most people apparently aren't loyal when they have options, but. Probably she'd still be loyal even if she knew for sure, and doesn't need to play against a traitor she would never be.
Aspexia notes the rather visible absence of Abadar and Irori from Sevar's consideration, after she was told to stay out of Axis and not to think herself Irori, and has fallen in love with Abadar's cleric. Aspexia hesitates, though, to inquire further of Sevar upon those Two, right at this moment. Sevar is making progress herself, in some directions, even as she becomes more worrying within others.
Neither does she remind Sevar that she was offered support in descending into cruelty, wickedness, and the darkness of her own soul, on which Sevar has not made much visible progress recently; they were instructed not to be proactive about that... a worrying sign, however.
"What does all that amount to in practice, though, as policy? I know what my first thought would be, but Keltham seems to think that I should not speak mine until others have spoken theirs. I see some amusing possibilities in the practice, maybe even useful ones. Maillol?"
"It's a thing I want and can't possibly ever find in Axis. And I want it quite a lot. But it does seem to me like a terrible plan if I get out of hand in the future, and possible that I am rather than finding the wickedness and cruelty I'm supposed to be looking for mostly finding the high opinion of myself, and enjoyment of power, that aren't going to be sufficient for whatever I need to be cruel and wicked for. I could imagine myself getting eternally distracted from cruelty and wickedness by trying to do whatever seems most practical from where I presently stand, and since where I presently stand is as the heretic who is testing what happens when you don't punish people very much, I'd end up trapped in a - set of results that you can reach from that start while only doing things that accumulate resources, and which is worse than the place I'd land if I was doing something better. So I don't know, which is why I have referred the question to my betters.
If there were any doubt in my heart that my loyalty to you will survive any power at all I might attain," she adds to Abrogail, "then I wouldn't do it. Because that seems like a great way to set myself on a course where I betray you eventually, or look tempted to, or even just look infuriatingly like I think I could get away with it. But there's no doubt in my heart, there, and you can look as long as you'd like."
Keeping it professional. Mostly. That was professionally necessary!
"Sometime later, dear, the way in which your thoughts change when I read them is not something you should be juggling right now."
"My own impulse would be to prohibit all such shifts of allegiances until we are sure there are any new places in Hell to be had, and that all offers of such are aligned to the purposes of Church and Crown, perhaps required to be approved by them. I see possibilities of explosive disappointment here, and Olegario's unilateral decision that these places are to be offered at the whim of individual ilani to their vassals is one I do not recall approving."
"Aspexia, your decision? I yield it fully to you."
This is very very obviously a matter that impinges on Asmodeus's own fun.
"Realistically, the most important consideration here is Sevar herself. If Subirachs thinks that Sevar having her own fiefdom is likely to produce good effects on her spiritual development, all else must yield to that, provided we think that we can in fact restrict that information sufficiently tightly that it does not affect the rest of Cheliax. Abrogail?"
"Maillol, fail your Will save against my Detect Thoughts and then think about whether it can in fact be done, given conditions on the Project."
"I see."
"You will have those authorities, then."
"Do not fail Cheliax in this, Maillol."
"Sevar. The Most High has spoken upon this matter of faith."
"No, dear, I mean that the Most High has spoken upon this matter, which I concede to be a matter foremost of faith; she referred back to me a political part and I ordained it so."
"This place is now your fiefdom, and if some believe that you have power over Hell's punishment also, well, we shall see what comes of that. Who knows, perhaps they are right."
And if not, that's on them for assuming it was so.
She does not squeal in delight, though probably to Abrogail she might as well have. She nods.
"My other question, Most High, is whether, while you're here, you have correction for me." Since they're not supposed to be proactive.
Lord Nethys, Ione thinks, trying not to shudder visibly where she kneels, please have foreseen this, and planned for it, that I may continue to serve you unbroken; or if instead nearly all my purpose has been served, make sure my end teaches a lesson to those who think it easy to evade your all-foreseeing sight and your retributive explosions.
Quick, think uncensored thoughts. Nice crown, there. What does it take to get Hell to make you another one of those? How much progress could she make on Law, if the next time the Queen needs to sleep -
She needs more practice at frantically thinking uncensored thoughts that won't instead get her killed.
"Rise."
"Seat yourselves."
"Have some tea."
"I am a gentle and benevolent Queen and you are awed by me, not terrified. Aspexia here is stern, but kind, and as Asmodeus's most trusted agent is certainly not dangerous to any law-abiding citizen of Cheliax. That is to be your demeanor; but discuss matters at this table of the true Cheliax, not the alter."
Tonia tries quite hard to stand up and go to the table to join them for tea but her legs seem to have turned to stone. This is probably not because the Queen petrified her, though the Queen does do that.
Is this a test. (Yes, everything is a test.)
What is it testing.
Their - suicidality?
Eventually she manages to make her legs move by leaning forward far enough they have to move to catch her, and once she's taken the first step it's easier to take the next one. She is trembling.
There's seven empty chairs about the table, so exactly as many as remaining Project Lawful members. Sevar, Maillol, and Subirachs are all seated next to each other in a cluster, the Queen and Aspexia Rugatonn each have two empty chairs apiece to either side of them. It leaves exactly one seat for a Project Lawful member to sit where she won't have anyone dangerous to either side of herself.
There's a cold terror in her, if the Queen is running Detect Thoughts then she is not getting out of here without showing Gorthoklek's authorization to the Queen of Cheliax and that is something difficult to visualize going at all well.
At the same time, Asmodia is currently rocking serious Wisdom and has spent much time visualizing alterAsmodia in her head. AlterAsmodia is awed but opportunistic, not frozen, not terrified.
And if this is a test of anything, or a lesson in anything, that thing is to stop fucking freezing up while scared the way half of Project Lawful does every time Keltham says something that implies the Project might fail sometime in the next minute.
RealAsmodia is frozen and trying not to think dangerous thoughts, and in her own absence she makes the decision to let alterAsmodia talk.
"Pilar, Ione, I think you probably have the most interesting things to talk about with the Most High so you two get to sit next to her. Meritxell, Queen's right, myself, Queen's left. Tonia, you're privileged to sit next to Sevar. Gregoria, by Subirachs. Peranza, between Gregoria and myself."
AlterAsmodia is suicidal, apparently.
...No. There were not, in fact, better options, considering that it's not a good look for the whole Project if everyone tries to avoid sitting next to the Queen and scrambles for the one seat that would have other girls to either side.
If the Project looks weak, Sevar's heretical low-punishment regimen looks ineffective.
Meritxell shoots Asmodia what is getting to be a characteristic look that says she can mostly follow along with what Asmodia is doing but absolutely wouldn't have thought of it herself, and she hates that passionately, and then she sits at the right hand of the Queen of Cheliax. "Is anyone tracking whether the sun will change our complexions and whether Keltham will notice?" she says, as she does, because Asmodia shouldn't be the only person who can say things.
"It's a reason not to skip more than a day at a time, but a concern that goes both ways, right, I also don't know that you all who spent more time outside before the project will be getting paler at the right pace if you hide indoors on rest days. Considerations like these are among the reasons we decided not to tell Keltham that powerful memory magic exists, even though we're not using it and the Conspiracy he hypothesizes would be; he might start looking for memory magic in places like our complexions and find other things we're not telling him."
"It has occurred to me that maybe then we manufacture occasion for Keltham to learn of the spell Scribe's Binding, or something, at which point he hopefully stops evaluating everything as Conspiracy and we stop doing any kind of absurd lengths, but planning more than three days ahead seems unwise, so far."
Walk into the potential explosion and see what happens, that should be the way of Nethys, right?
Without really having any memory of how she got there, Ione is sitting to the left of the Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus in Golarion, Aspexia Rugatonn, there is a cute little plate in front of her bearing some expensively intricate snack several steps up from what Project Lawful gets from Cayden Cailean or at least that they've earned from Him so far.
She isn't talking yet. Pilar can totally talk, right, Ione doesn't need to talk.
"That Keltham is checking the consistency of everything we tell him using Laws we don't understand, both in terms of the Laws that govern the way he expects the world around him must be arranged, and in terms of Laws he is using to think."
She is mostly, numbly, letting alterAsmodia's personality talk, and hoping that if anything really suicidal comes up realAsmodia will realize in time what she is about to say.
"Almost never speaks out in class when Keltham has just said something alarming to somebody in realCheliax and less alarming to someone in alterCheliax, a problem partially shared by Gregoria and Peranza though Gregoria is improving. Tonia is too scared generally to think interesting thoughts that will let her say interesting things to Keltham. From Keltham's perspective Tonia probably doesn't have a distinct personality at this point, also a problem she shares with Gregoria and Peranza. That's with Jacme and Pela out of the running, as otherwise they'd be much worse offenders."
...apparently she can talk okay, more or less, so long as it's about her work, and so long as the amount she's sweating under her clothes won't count against her.
Tonia tries to open her mouth and say something and it doesn't work. Aaaaah. Good job proving Asmodia right. This is terrible. This is terrifying. Say something.
"Alter Tonia is also scared and in over her head," she says after a horrifyingly long silence. "She's not like you, she met a stranger for the first time when she was ten, she doesn't know much about the way Cheliax works, outside its farms, where most people live, and which I've been representing fine to Keltham, when it comes up. She's very awed about meeting all these fifth-circle wizards who can really teleport."
"The big barrier to my showing more personality traits," Gregoria says, "is that the occasion when I think alter Gregoria would be most tempted to argue with Keltham is about all the putting classes on hold for the sake of his sex life, and I don't think we want him to do less of that."
"There isn't anything interesting about the real me," Peranza manages to say. "Nobody has - ordered me -" This probably sounds like making excuses to the Queen of Cheliax and that is probably not a smart career move. "I stand ready to obey orders on how alterPeranza should be more interesting than I am."
"It's not clear to me, Gregoria, that Cheliax wouldn't be served better by Keltham teaching more and fucking less. While he is awake and thinking we are losing ground, while he teaches us Law and technology we are gaining it. But that is Sevar's remit finally, and if I will not gainsay her decision, you certainly shouldn't. Meanwhile, consider that alterGregoria could have as many as two or even three different facts being true about her, rather than one."
"AlterTonia, perhaps, could try being scared and in over her head loudly rather than quietly. Showing vulnerability in alterCheliax would be much less punished; alterTonia should have less reason to hide her weakness and her fears."
"Peranza, if there is any benefit to this reduced-punishment conceit of Sevar's, it will be that when people like you are failing, you are less afraid to go to your superiors and ask for new orders instead of waiting to receive them. Have you felt any positive motivation to do anything, has there been anything you wanted or felt interested in, over the last few days?"
"If you think alter Gregoria would take Keltham to task over delaying lessons for sex, then do that; whether or not it serves our interests directly, which I think is a bit of a wash, it is bad for our interests for anything to be absent that ought to be present in alter Cheliax, and a student who is annoyed about all of the sex distracting from building Civilization seems like it might be that. Is this alter Gregoria motivated by jealousy?"
"Well, she can't be asexual, Asmodia's doing that and two would be distinctly overrepresented, in a population that was selected for being willing to have Keltham's children. But she can be very pragmatic, that seems fine. I might pass you instructions on when you may or may not push, but it seems fine. As one of your several personality traits, as Her Majesty pointed out."
"It generally helps if the personality traits are inside you somewhere, at least until your Bluff is a great deal higher than at present. Peranza here, for example, thought about Keltham's Silent Image show of dath ilan and its surroundings, which someone will somehow arrange for me to see at some point and yes that is an order. Then Peranza was terrified of having had such a heretical thought, and tried to hide it from herself so that she would not be committing treason by hiding it from me. AlterPeranza then could have the personality trait of being fascinated by the things of Civilization and pressing Keltham to say more about it, which is itself something that I think will work generally to our advantage."
Try to forget you heard her admit to running Detect Thoughts maybe there's enough other people around she won't notice oh no that's censored isn't it -
"Keltham will notice if everyone in alterCheliax has personality traits that serve a purpose of realCheliax. I think that's a problem even if the trait is also there in realPeranza. Where are the traits that disadvantage realCheliax? Where are the traits that don't mean anything?"
Wait did she just criticize the Queen? She needs to stop thinking suicidal thoughts when she tries not to think hidden ones.
"Yes, Asmodia, you did criticize my suggestion just then. It's a very dangerous game, but for the criticism to be apt is a winning move. Indeed, if we are playing against a dath ilani then we must create an illusion indistinguishable to him from reality, and that means people having traits inconvenient as well as convenient to the true Cheliax. We do already have some such, for example, alterAsmodia's and alterIone's tendency to say clever things."
"Someone can get miserable when cooped up in a fortress and plead with Maillol and when that fails with Keltham to be allowed out to go swim at the beach, that's the kind of thing that happens in places with worse discipline. And if they just uneventfully go swimming and come back that's evidence against tropes, to Keltham. Best for someone who actually will get miserable when cooped up in a fortress.
Peranza, it's not actually heretical to notice that Keltham, a random teenager smarter than average but not by much who dath ilan didn't think incredibly highly of, lived like a King, or to think that dath ilan manages to present a really really nice front to people who don't know the secrets it's keeping, or to think maybe you'd like it even if you did know as many of them as your mind can stand. It is heretical to think that Asmodeus's Civilization won't be grander, I suppose, but if you're panicking at the stage of noticing that Keltham's world looked nice you're not just protecting yourself from heresy, you're protecting yourself from thinking. Heresy we can correct. There's no corrective I know for not having any thoughts in the first place."
"Well said. It's also really really boring."
"Correctives include running a Detect Thoughts and hurting someone every time they try not to think, until they start thinking again. It works about half the time, and better if you are more gentle and patient, which, at that point, I'm usually not."
"It's pretty much got to be. Keltham knows nothing about the entire way that societies structured themselves before Civilization. His language doesn't have words for it, and Tongues wouldn't just give me the words that he specifically knows. They rewrote their whole history to hide something, and the most Good explanation I can think of is that it was to enable the mass censorship effort that keeps sadists from ever knowing. In terms of running a Conspiracy, they put us to shame. Everyone knows there are vast swathes of human knowledge they're not allowed to have, and figures the reason is good enough, and they train that in in early childhood too. Good is too weak to pull that off, frankly, and even if dath ilani Good aren't that weak, Good would also be constantly internally divided about it. You need a tyranny to manage that kind of achievement."
Abrogail sighs. People who are not herself are sometimes very silly.
"While that is a fine thing to worry about, I do instruct all you here to be more wary of what Keltham may know that is safe for him to know, in a world that seemingly lacks or perhaps has hidden all traces of magic and wizardry and clerics, which is not safe to have known here in Golarion with its magic. We are very wary of whether Cayden Cailean does in truth hold any common interest with Asmodeus, but that is one of the plausible ones."
"I should also think it slightly more likely that Keltham's Civilization went to such fantastic lengths to, for example, kill every worshipper of every god and destroy every scrap of information by which those gods could again be given an anchor in their world. And then, perhaps, decided to eliminate the knowledge of sadism, so long as they were about their larger endeavor. To be clear, I do not know that it is possible for a world to cast loose its gods in such a way; I do not know it to be impossible either. It seems a more plausible thought in the light of dath ilan's secrecy."
"Most High, I request such knowledge of those truths as may have been compiled for those trusted. It is impossible for me to guess what truth of our gods may be something Keltham sees as entangled with other truths. That he is as yet too confused to ask much about gods is no guarantee he will remain confused tomorrow."
"We do not get a pass on having failed if Keltham catches us in a lie that we did not know was a lie, from a Conspiracy above our own Conspiracy."
"I also ask how much of this conversation took place in alterCheliax - not at this time, obviously, but sometime. I ask whether alterCheliax is talking to Keltham about these matters, what knowledge he may hold that is more dangerous in this place, whether his world hid knowledge of magic and gods. He may think of it; he may predict we will think of it; and alterCheliax is not in the reflexive habit of never talking to Keltham."
"The Grand High Priestess and Queen are paying this less attention in alter Cheliax, I think; that isn't obvious from other things we've established about alter Cheliax, but it's safer for the project to be apparently not run all that competently, and there's the obvious excuse that running a war with Nidal consumes all their time. In alter Cheliax the war is a much closer thing. Perhaps without them Maillol has this on his list of worries, and perhaps we come up with it independently over dinner; and perhaps one of them spares an hour to read transcripts at some point and gets worried about it and sends a pointed letter. All of those look different....
I think alter Carissa, who has been asked to try not to become a Keeper at top speed, and who is worried for Keltham's emotional wellbeing, when she thinks of things like this adds them to a list titled something like 'things that are worrying/things that will make Keltham sad', for things without immediate implications that might turn out to be important, and tell him he can read it if he wants to. I bet he won't."
"Yes. I'm not that good an actress - yet! I'm going to try for Glibness swords today! - and I'm not sure I could stop seeing the world as Asmodia does once I start. And - it feels like there's a fragment of Law here, though I've barely started identifying it, where we want to at least be cooperating with the version of Keltham who does end up being possible to win over, who even after embracing Evil is going to be annoyed if I wasn't actually his - or maybe it's not a fragment of Law and it's just that I want that Keltham, my greatest triumph, to consider the punishment warranted to be one I can withstand."
"Sevar," it's safer to request this of her and not seem to be going over anyone's head, "so long as I'm requesting resources, can we have some fresh intelligent wizard students our age kidnapped from Taldor, not broken slaves, not terrorized, ideally with no idea that they've been taken by Cheliax particularly, kept in surprisingly good living conditions, who I can try to teach Law to see how they react to that? It's probably far too late for us to act anything like they would, but it would be helpful to have any idea what not-too-scared wizard students are like outside Cheliax. I want to know what we've already given away before Keltham sees it."
"I've thought about that. You can convince me it's worth it but the ways they'll fail to correspond are going to include 'they won't be girls' - noble girls learn wizardry sometimes, but we can't realistically get away with kidnapping a decent sample of Taldane noble girls - 'they won't have learned in a school, but as an apprentice of a specific senior wizard', they'll be older than you lot or considerably weaker as wizards, and they're often going to be their family's one investment meant to support all the rest of them for life, selected as the child likeliest to - abide by that contract, if you want to give them credit for Law, or be socially pressurable into paying for all the deadweights, if you want to think of it that way.
If given all that you still want them, sure, let's do it, but if we want the closest analogy to Cheliax we want a wizarding academy and I think we'll get noticed if we kidnap a sample from those."
"You could give me two such girls, so that they'd have any interactions with each other to observe, and no more."
"We could look further afield than Taldor, my sense is that this is not just about alterCheliax but about what holds in Evil countries generally that we are giving away."
"Can we hire them? - noting the trend where I keep making the Abadaran suggestion, and maybe it only seems good to me because I've tilted myself too much towards making sense of Keltham. But we could have someone go to the wizard schools in Absalom I'd hesitate to kidnap a student from, and offer a lot of money for a couple years' indenture working on some wizard's secret project, he reserves the right to stop you from leaking his secrets. .....she, actually, if we don't want the wrong kind of filter on what girls we get."
"Potentially adds a number of complexities on top of keeping simple prisoners. Still, I expect that wizard girls in Absalom will sign up for some arduous restrictions if you offer ten times more money than they could otherwise earn in a year. I'll have somebody look into it."
"I observe that I don't actually want to teach them Law over the next months or years, I want to quickly observe how they behave in the first week. If I think I've learned all I can after a week, what do we do with them after? With simple prisoners we can statue them when I'm done with them, since we don't want to send them to their afterlife where they might talk. If their school is expecting them back, or responsive to Sendings..."
"Yeah, you'd have to get them to agree not to be expected back at school. I'm fine with some exploratory looks at kidnapping as well, but" this is sure an awkward conversation to have in front of Abrogail "my impression from what wizards not from Cheliax say at the Worldwound, is that the big wizard academies are the Academae in Korvosa, which is more or less also the reason we don't own Korvosa, and Felandriel Morgethai's university in Almas, which is definitely the reason we don't own Andoran, and the Magesterium in Absalom which is the reason no one's conquered it in five thousand years. And if any of that is half accurate then kidnapping the kids who are the best close equivalent might get the attention of one of the few powerful people in the Inner Sea who aren't yet meddling."
"We could hire them under a contract where they are to go entirely out of contact and unscryable for 2 years, I suppose, if anyone would agree to that. If they go home and only two weeks have passed, oops, guess there was a time accident."
"Though - I'd worry that even after 2 years, maybe I would've taught some piece of the Law we don't want them taking back, if we can really win Keltham over or keep him that long - if they're Lawful, they could swear a secrecy oath, I guess, but -"
"Are there girls our age in other countries who are known to be good at math, with Intelligence 17, without their being wizard-tracked, or being quite so missed if they are kidnapped?"
"I'm sure there are peasants overlooked everywhere, it's a question of how resource-intensive it'd be to find them, and how much we'd learn if they're that different. If you only want two maybe we can fake the deaths of a couple of wizard students in a way that doesn't raise too many questions. I do think it's worth expending some effort on; I'm curious about the answers too, and I expect Keltham is already looking for some correlate we don't know about."
" - I want to refer that upwards because I know it to be an occasion of heresy for me."
She thinks that this is great and speaks to the fundamental superiority of Asmodeus to other churches and Cheliax to other places, but that can still be heresy if you do it wrong enough.
"Human societies are like that by default. Elves and drow and dragons less so. Only in Cheliax has Asmodeus exerted the force to come in and smash aside existing social orders and impose a tyranny of His own image, which does not share this common property of human societies."
"We are, I think, becoming lost in the weeds. Asmodia, I will assign you some worldly intelligence officer to answer all such questions; now speak not for a time. Have others other matters to discuss, over our tea and snacks?"
"I'm currently making up all of my Nethysian theology as I go along and it's not impossible Keltham will catch me out on that. I request true books of Nethysian theology, sworn to me to be unaltered and uncensored, that I may better serve my god in whatever ways He is very evidently cooperating with Cheliax. Including protecting the Project from attacks by Nidal, giving Keltham a particularly convenient channel through which to send him only approved or modified books, and opening the possibility for Keltham to apparently flee and hide while continuing his research, so long as I can provide him with a library takaral."
"Denied. If I send Asmodia any books of secrets I will instruct her to tell you nothing of what is said of Nethys there."
"As annoying as you are, the actual worshippers of Nethys are far less pleasant to deal with. Had you ever met Nefreti Clepati, you yourself might agree that you were better off reinventing your own theology."
Ione will keep quiet, then, and try not to think any angry thoughts very loudly until she is back among less dangerous people. Lord Nethys will have foreseen this pass, the petty slights of Asmodeans directed against the follower of a greater god; what she invents for herself will be enough to serve Him.
"Keltham knows far too much that you don't."
"You are crippled by an education almost absolutely unsuited to the task you now face, only able to stumble along by grace of your naive enemy undoing some of the damage and re-teaching you."
"Neither Asmodia nor Carissa are as yet really more clever than Keltham even with their headbands; I have a sense that only I am presently his match there, if I, and Aspexia has bid me not replace Asmodia in her duties."
"You have previously been terrorized out of thinking for yourselves, and that is now suddenly your job, with far less initiation and preparation and filtering than is usual in Cheliax."
"Everything you do occurs under the shadow of forces greater than yourself, of which Pilar's snack service is only the most overt manifestation, and it is not clear where those forces are steering you or how they could be exploited."
"Key project members have questionable or openly non-Asmodean loyalties. The one among you strongest in her faith is the center of Cayden Cailean's manipulations."
"The Law you are ultimately attempting to learn was taught to Keltham in a form perhaps deliberately designed to contradict and poison philosophies such as Asmodeanism, especially as that philosophy was taught to you before you entered the inner ring that has tea with the Queen."
"Multiple gods may be very unhappy with what we are trying, only Broom's god protects this place from their direct interventions, and it's not at all clear that Broom's god will remain happy with us."
"Other countries have had their attention dramatically called to Project Lawful and the misdirection of the false Project Lawful may not hold."
"Everything you do is under the time limit of Keltham's waking hours as he progresses towards awareness."
"In trying to awaken Keltham to Evil you may well be matching wits against Lawful Good minds barely short of gods, who designed his education to keep him asleep and hobbled."
"Some of the knowledge Keltham holds may be vastly destructive to Golarion if not contained."
"To contain the Project's dangers we may need our own Keepers and not just our own ilani."
"The improvised early days of Project Lawful may have revealed some truth to Keltham that will eventually prove fatal once he understands the rest."
To Sevar alone: I fear what the tropes would make of it. I fear the results if we try to replace the asexual - who watches it all and now also controls the game, beginning from a disfavored position but rising rapidly, who is learning Keltham's own Law to wield against him - with Keltham's already-defeated rival for your heart.
See, that's why to not argue with the Grand High Priestess aside from the Asmodean virtue of obedience, or at the root of it; she has reasons you didn't think of.
Carissa is not sure if the tropes are, uh, real. But probably better to err on the side of assuming they are, even if it means they lose something that would be very useful to them. And anyway that is the decision that was made.
"This would usually be the point where I said something about how I've been on more doomed projects than this one, and pushed through. But if I make it out of Project Lawful alive, I'm pretty sure that will top all other candidates for which projects I tell future subordinates I survived."
"You do have a bit more support from upper management than most projects can expect, and vast though not adequate resources to back you. Believe me when I say that it could have been much, much, much worse."
"Our allotted time here is passing, I fear. Pilar, the Most High has business with your curse. Subirachs, Sevar, a word with you before the Most High returns."
"The rest of you are dismissed."
"Maillol, see them out."
Meritxell, I have a certain matter to discuss with you privately. Be available for my summons, in some minutes, before I go. Security who see of this in your thoughts are to speak of it to no one.
"I think I still don't fully understand the shape you desire for me, because I was confused when Keltham wanted the same thing. Confused, but able to give it to him. I notice myself being more ambitious - noticing that my plans require something hard to get, and thinking of solutions like 'well I guess maybe I'll have to become an archdevil, all right, which one's seat would be easiest to play for - I'm not sure if that's an intended effect or an unintended one. I'm not feeling scared of being hurt like I was immediately afterwards and am instead back to wishing I could just suffer until I stopped having problems but unreasonably they'll still be there if I suffer about them a lot. I think I have uncovered more desires, but - not uncovered the ones that'd close any path but Hell to me. Not yet. I promise I'm looking for them. .....uh, there is 'if I don't go to Hell then it will continue being unsatisfactory, so I will be sure to' but I think that's heretical and does not count as a desire that Axis can't fulfill, even if technically Axis can't fulfill it."
"The latter part of that is the Most High's place to speak of to you."
"Though on my imperfect understanding of the Outer Planes, my gift to you - and I am pleased that you know it for such - is not a gift that would have been given to you in Axis, had you died and found yourself there."
"I know. There aren't people like you in Axis, and if there were no one would let them do anything interesting." The part of Carissa that has gotten very stubborn about all goals being only minor inconveniences volunteers that probably Carissa could have just thought about her priorities until she improved in the same way; she does not share that stupid opinion which is probably not even true. "I am ready already to unhesitatingly choose a Hell that would treat me like you do, even knowing I may never again merit such a gift. And I think Keltham would accept that Hell, but my job is convincing him to accept the real Hell, so I have to track the differences. I think Hell mostly isn't, for people, what you've been for me. Maybe it could be. Once I'm an archdevil."
"The treatment that Keltham improvised for you, yesterday, has an aspect I find truly fascinating. It is not quite what I would have done, but - the part that your transcript showed your thoughts stumbling on, Keltham's instructions to you not to punish yourself, that you thought so much unlike Hell, is strangely like what I would have done."
"To be precise, I would have told you that I was going to read your thoughts and punish you as I deemed appropriate, and you were neither required nor allowed to usurp my place and punish yourself. It is, in fact, an appropriate instruction when the problem you are trying to solve is a tangle of somebody's thoughts getting in the way of themselves, and your method is cutting the tangle with pain applied from without."
"Keltham seemingly arrived at nearly the same answer, and with far less experience than it took me to reach it. The question that fascinates me is whether this indicates that the way in which Keltham tortured you is Lawful in some way I cannot see."
Abrogail's phrasing does not seem nearly as concerningly un-Hellish, of course. She thinks on the puzzle for half a minute. "I think Keltham has an instinctive understanding of - some rules that dath ilan went out of its way not to teach him, but which still might form part of the Law. Like that one, maybe, and like - that it was his task to succeed or fail at, and I was just present for it. But I don't have the math, and I'm not sure even he does. I'll think more on it."
"Indeed.
Any sane person would have less hopes for my plans of Hell than I do. Knowing that, a proper dath ilani would of course believe what they think a sane person ought to believe; but I'm not one, yet, and I'm going to try to find the flaw that might not be there; it is as important as arranging our ultimate triumph, and might be related to it. And there are already lots of people at work on other clearer bits of Our Lord's will. ....I hope. Now you're going to tell me that there are actually only six reasonable competent people in the whole country."
"It depends on what task you want to assign them. We probably have six reasonable competent tailors in Egorian alone."
"People in the tier you're challenging now? People who could be assigned to head up something as strange as Project Lawful has become? Sometime when we're not at war with Nidal, I'll invite you to dinner with all of the proven souls like that in all of Cheliax. It won't be a large dinner."
Pilar halts her initial impulse to agree with anything the Most High wants to do. She wouldn't be asking if she didn't want Pilar's opinion.
"It was Ione's term, but considering how offended I felt when I thought she was calling me that, I find myself pleased by the thought of my curse being called the same."
"Mm. Snack service, I address you now. A disturbing thought has occurred to me, that if Golarion must needs have its own Keepers to survive, you might claim to be serving Asmodeus's interests on the whole, if you convinced Keltham to permit those, while along the way giving Keltham far more information than Asmodeus would have wished."
Aspexia Rugatonn didn't actually ask a question, nor is she, in fact, a being whose words command immediate and unquestioning obedience from Chaotic Good oracle curses.
Pilar's curse enjoys being nice, though, so if Aspexia Rugatonn asks politely, she'll definitely get a polite answer back.
Aspexia Rugatonn has pride, yes, in much the same way she has the Crown of the Most High; it's indeed a part of herself, but not in a way where she can't remove it as soon as there's something to be gained for Asmodeus thereby.
"Very well then. Please, if you'd be so kind, tell me whether in having Pilar castigate Keltham, you gave to Asmodeus with one hand, and took with another."
The answer is... nope! The suspicious Asmodeans are completely wrong! Telling Keltham significantly more or significantly less than Pilar did would have served Asmodeus less well, even if Keltham had come to the same decision about Keepers either way.
Having Pilar speak out passionately to Keltham like that, about something she really cared about, and having her passion turn out to hurt Asmodeus in the end, would be something that Pilar's curse would never ever do to Pilar!
"And would you then, also, please speak to my suspicion that Cayden is with his left hand setting in motion injuries to Lord Asmodeus which will produce subsidiary disasters, and with his right hand using Pilar to cancel those out and perhaps also do Asmodeus's interests some lesser injuries along the way, such that she may be truthfully told that Asmodeus will be better off than if she were never oracled?"
Also totally wrong! For that to be true would definitely count as Pilar being used against her Lord, since Cayden Cailean would not set those disasters in motion, if Pilar wasn't there to stop them.
It wouldn't be playing nice with Broom's god either, to set a disaster in motion, and then invoke the importance of Broom's god to stop that disaster while also doing something else you wanted. Other gods would be unhappy with Cayden Cailean about that; Cayden Cailean couldn't get away with that sort of thing the way Asmodeus can.
Aspexia Rugatonn's clever suspicion was in fact a pretty silly one! Any god would've seen that right away. Aspexia Rugatonn should remember that she isn't actually very good at this kind of reasoning, just better than all the mortals around her except Keltham.
"...would you perhaps care to answer, please, so long as I'm asking politely, whether it's the case that everything you've done so far has in truth had no purpose but that which seemed overt to myself." If the curse claims this, Aspexia will mostly conclude it's just lying.
Because the suspicious Asmodeans wouldn't trust Snack Service about it, obviously.
This will become clearer in a few weeks, after one of the real effects of Pilar's actions becomes apparent, and Aspexia Rugatonn sees that it did benefit Asmodeus, and also that it would obviously have not served Asmodeus better if Pilar's curse had just told Pilar.
Nope! To be clear, that was a nope about answering any of the above questions, not the noping of all things being Nethys's goal in this particular case.
Chaotic Good is not really much bigger than Asmodeus on Asmodeans being told what's going on or why. Asmodeus thinks Asmodeans should just follow their orders. Chaotic Good would like to see that happen too!
"Do you suppose I am allowed to just plainly ask Keltham for the logic behind what he tried? You reported to Subirachs on what had occurred, Subirachs reported to me in my capacity as your recent past sadist rather than as Queen, I write Keltham an incognito letter from one sadist to another..."
"Maybe? It tips our hand that you're paying a lot of attention, and, uh, from a tropes standpoint makes you a recurring character, but might be worth it, if he can explain himself. I could also just ask him for the logic, which is safer but perhaps permits you less to get at your exact question."
"I suspect the matter of the recurring character is a ship that will certainly sail at some point if it has not already; the real story does not make sense if I am mentioned in it but once."
"I could have sent the letter to you, to show to Keltham only if you deemed that acceptable. The Queen of alterCheliax is solicitous of her subjects' rights in such matters, if no great stakes otherwise prohibit her from it."
"Alter Cheliax has so far been treating me as Keltham's possession, which of course it only does because that's what I said and I ought to be taken seriously when I say it. I don't think it'd make me responsible for deciding which letters Keltham reads." She is less terrified about disagreeing with the Queen than she would have been before, but it's still a very salient thing to do, like jumping onto a bed of hot coals while you have Protection from Energy up.
"My time here is up, I fear. Well, Keltham will very likely show the letter to you if I tell him that it is safe to do so. I think you may ask better followup questions than I myself would, if there is anything of Law in his answer."
Abrogail rises, smiles at Carissa with blinding levels of Splendour, and departs.
Aspexia Rugatonn drops into a chair without much ceremony. "Subirachs. Sevar. A relatively minor matter first: When Pilar's curse turned her in for unAsmodean thought, after she considered donating her new earnings to the Church without expecting to benefit herself thereby, you said that you thought you knew what mistake she was making. What mistake do you suspect in Pilar, Sevar, and how would you remedy it in her if such fell to you?"
"I was directed to try to discover in myself desires that Axis could not fulfill, and to be supported in my education in cruelty and wickedness, because those are skills, skills that Asmodeus values in mortals, and if you try to loyally serve Asmodeus while possessing none of them you'll - end up too Lawful Neutral, in my case, probably others would err in different directions.
It seems to me that Pilar is absolutely and unshakeably loyal to Asmodeus, but possesses little, herself, in an appetite for cruelty, or power, or slaves, or much of anything else, and I think it hadn't occurred to her that that could be a deficit, because after all, time spent pursuing her own personal interests is time not spent serving Asmodeus. But - devils are cruel, and enjoy cruelty. Asmodeus in making His servants did not actually make beings with no desire but to obey orders, even though He obviously could have; they are to obey orders and within the bounds of their orders to pursue Evil that pleases them. It pleases Pilar to obey, but she doesn't know what pleases her when obedience requires nothing in particular, or requires only that she do some Evil.
That's what I think the error is. As for how to correct it, I have no idea, because Pilar is more devout than me, and this is an area in which I need to improve as well, and I would fear that in trying to teach her I would end up causing damage. I assume there's not an established route of escalating cruelty that takes people who don't find it particularly appealing and makes them masters of it, or it would have been offered to me. If I absolutely had to do something and there was no one else to ask at all I'd, uh, have her help Ione torture Ione's brother who Ione hates or something?"
"Order Pilar to try out standard Asmodean enjoyments that cost money, read her mind to see if any such had appealed to her. Do not order her to any enjoyments that resemble torturing orphans, per standing orders on Pineda. Only once Pilar knows some other right path for herself, punish her for her unAsmodean thought. With an additional punishment for the fact that her Chaotic Good curse usurped Lawful Evil's authority in presuming to have her reported and punished, lest she think that her curse have the power to punish her and determine the right path thereby."
"Good enough. Try that and see how the initial steps go. I so authorize it. Should they fail, I think I would be interested in hearing what her curse suggested as an alternative."
"Sevar. You inquired after your correction."
"I mark first that there has been a developing anomaly in our attempt to follow those orders we first received: you are simply more important at this point than an ordinary county's heiress or fourth-circle cleric. The ordinary course of Asmodeus's Law would have us offering you far more theological support than a fourth-circle cleric would receive, should you request that. That events have gone beyond Asmodeus's plans is one obvious interpretation, but for you to serve Him well in this world and be raised high within it, would also inevitably mark you as a priority for theological support over time. Then the developing conflict in the instructions should have been foreseeable, and perhaps we were meant to follow those orders strictly no matter how important you became."
"Given that the orders came by way of a contract devil rather than Asmodeus's direct vision and intervention, I am now making the judgment call that I am to offer you no less theological support than your actual importance merits under the ordinary course of Asmodeus's Law, should you request that support, and I mean to tell the Queen that she is free herself to support your more material journey towards Asmodeus above the county-heiress level, as her own whims may move her."
"This is the most visibly dangerous decision you've seen me make so far, and if you feel any sense of nervousness about it yourself, this would be a good time to speak up."
- Carissa pulls the transcript of what the contract devil said out of her bag, opens it with her magic, rereads it.
"County heiresses don't usually have three Wishes and ten pounds of spellsilver," she says after a little while thinking. "We obliged a clarification anyway, when I tried again to sell my soul, and I didn't get told that I shouldn't possess such resources. I - do feel nervous, but I don't think I see a reason to decide differently."
"Hell, had it paid you such a price, would not be a slave of Church and Queen."
"Arguably, though it is rather a stretch, neither am I or Abrogail. Slaves of Asmodeus, perhaps, but not of Church and Queen. Mark well that I resorted to no such twisted interpretation when first we met."
"But on, then, to greater matters, which a fourth-circle cleric could not call in the Most High to clarify to her." Aspexia Rugatonn looks tired, which means she is choosing to look tired, but that still means something and signals something even if it's a deliberate choice. "You want to know if you're a heretic, or rather, if your heresy is wrong. According to the doctrine of the Church, it is anathema. According to the doctrine of Hell as we know it, it is anathema. Even to offer your potential vassals some temporary and false hope in the face of Hell, is anathema under Asmodeanism as we know it, for Hell is the destruction of hope."
"The question is whether it is anathema to Asmodeus, and the problem we face there is that Asmodeus truly does not think in human concepts."
"To Zon-Kuthon, the object of torture is torture. This only goes to show that not everything of Lawful Evil is thereby of Asmodeus. What, to Asmodeus, is the object of torture? Answer as you believe from within your heresy, and not from doctrine."
Carissa has thought about this endlessly and also the Most High's going to tear through it like tissue paper, isn't she.
Well. If it's false she wants to know that. She cannot build dath ilan on any lies.
"Asmodeus wants the error undone, of mortal free will; He wants His possessions not to possess that nature. He wants them obedient to Him. They should suffer if He wills that they suffer, and not only if He wills it for some reason, because if that weren't true then his power over them would not be absolute. Asmodeus desires that the power He rightly has over all of us is - reproduced after a fashion, that we own those weaker than us as Asmodeus owns us, and so obviously anyone I possess should suffer if I will it, and I don't need a reason, so long as I am myself obedient to Asmodeus, and not motivated by a rejection of His will. But the object of torture is the shaping of a soul, to be more useful, and closer to satisfactory; some torture is probably for the shaping of the torturer, not the victim, and it's still plainly Asmodean, to torture someone who is mine because I happen to want to and it doesn't undermine Asmodeus's goals.
But a slave of Asmodeus who just wants to cause their slaves maximum suffering at all times is indeed more like Zon-Kuthon than like Asmodeus; while perhaps bounds on their conduct can properly be placed only by those above them, and only on their own whims or insofar as it serves Asmodeus, it seems like they'd be a better slave of Asmodeus if they tortured their slaves exactly insofar as it improved them, in a manner that improved them, and thus left Asmodeus richer and not poorer. So torture is right whenever it strengthens Asmodeus, by strengthening his reputation or his tyranny or the incentive not to annoy him or his more valuable slaves, or by strengthening one of his possessions; but the purpose is strength."
"I think you are missing an important point about what Asmodeus might be trying to accomplish in the average and typical case of a worshipper subject to Him, because, in fact, you are not ordinary in how you yourself relate to being tortured."
"For most mortals in Golarion, Sevar, the way torture works is that they don't want to be tortured, so by torturing them if they do a thing, we ensure that they do not do it, or if we torture them in all cases but one, we force them to that exact path, and even, we can torture them unless some particular outcome eventuates and force them to try with such intelligence as is in them to find means to that outcome."
"I will pause in case you have questions about this seemingly unfamiliar concept."
Aspexia, like a number of high-ranking Chelish authorities who scare people too much for them to talk, just runs Detect Thoughts instead. It saves time on trying to scare people into not being too terrified to tell you things, or even on the less terrified ones trying to decide what to say in front of you.
"You are thinking that it only works because they don't know Law," Aspexia repeats for benefit of Subirachs. "But knowledge of Law alone is not enough to convey immunity, I rather doubt. I expect that Abrogail could shatter an average dath ilani if she wished, perhaps an average temple torturer could, and I expect that threats would work on them thenceforth whether or not they retained their knowledge of Law. Mayhap not a Keeper, there is no way we may know from where we stand."
"Torture alone cannot force a greater devil to obedience if they do not deem you above themselves in Hell's hierarchy; greater devils, then, relate to pain and threats in some other fashion indeed. There are torments in Hell even for they, when they fail, but they must be to other purposes than simply enforcing obedience from those that would not otherwise obey. If a greater devil fell into the hands of Kuthites, say, they could not be moved to obedience for any amount of pain. On a god it would not work at all. Would it have worked on mortals in the days before they were cursed with free will? I do not know, but I suspect not."
"Asmodeus is known to prefer mortals as they were before free will, even though this would render nonsensical any such system of tyranny as now exists in Cheliax. In Asmodeus's Hell, devils are remade as beings who are more difficult to move by simple threats, and yet even for greater devils in Hell there is punishment."
"What to Asmodeus, then, is the object of torture? What is to him tyranny, that in Cheliax we call this tyranny, but better would be if none here had free will or could be moved to actions by threat of torment?"
She thinks about it.
She's not surprised, that devils can't be moved by torture; it may take more than knowing the Law, but it is part of Law, and beings that Asmodeus chose to shape would not be so. That part feels right.
It makes sense for Asmodeus to want more valuable devils. She doesn't need to understand Asmodeus to predict He wants that; whatever else He wants, if He has more valuable devils, it's easier for him to get. Torture making devils more valuable makes sense. If it's not the answer -
- separate out some instances of it not being the answer -
- maybe torture is good to Asmodeus when it makes devils more valuable, but that's a small share of what makes it valuable and she's being asked to identify the rest. That doesn't require undoing every bit of reasoning that starts with the assumption Asmodeus runs Hell in a way that enables Him to better achieve His goals.
- maybe torture doesn't make devils more valuable but otherwise causes Asmodeus to have more resources. For example, if Asmodeus had a deal of some kind with Zon-Kuthon and Hell were a blend of their tastes. ....no, feels wrong. For example, if torture is in some magical sense directly a source of power for Asmodeus, the way prayer is sort of understood to be. ....no, also feels wrong, if that were true it wouldn't be a complicated secret. Maybe torture makes minds more predictable to Asmodeus? Tortured minds are more alike, and so more useful? ....that's just a clever way to get back to her favored hypothesis that torture makes devils more valuable. Maybe torture makes the Good gods get all mad at Asmodeus and that in in some sense directly useful. ...also doesn't feel persuasive.
- maybe torture does not cause Asmodeus to have more of anything else he cares about, and the only reason there is torture in Hell is because of Asmodeus's fondness for torture, like Zon-Kuthon, if not wholly like Zon-Kuthon because He does apparently care about several other things. In which case there is torture in Hell because Asmodeus likes it that way and no new way of training devils could improve the situation because Asmodeus doesn't regard it as potentially benefitting from improvement.
That feels like an actually dangerous heresy, the kind of thing where if she believed it she'd - she's not sure what she'd do how about she stops thinking about that. What is it with her new urge to when she thinks of something dangerous keep thinking about it, like there's always a safe answer at the other end.
....though the best time to have unsafe thoughts is right now while they can be corrected promptly.
Okay.
If the point of torture is that it makes Asmodeus weaker, makes His triumph less likely, but He likes it, so it happens anyway even though it makes devils worse, then Carissa thinks Iomedae kind of has a point. Carissa in that world is not going to betray the project because she mostly cares about Carissa and they are competent to make that not in the interests of Carissa, but she'd cease feeling like Good was obviously and plainly her enemy. Good would kind of deserve to win, if Asmodeus wasn't trying to because He was so busy torturing people in ways that undermined his other goals. The contempt that Carissa feels for anyone else who undermines Asmodeus, she feels for this hypothetical Asmodeus, undermining himself.
There; she thought it; now it's obviously not the answer to the puzzle, so keep thinking.
The answer is not that a Hell with torture leaves Asmodeus weaker than a Hell without it; now that she's actually thought it it's self-refuting.
So it leaves Asmodeus stronger, or at least the same.
But she's not supposed to just again give the answer 'to make devils better', that would be - failing to engage with what the High Priestess is trying to say to her -
What does pain have to do with tyranny?
Well, someone who can hurt you without reprisal is above you. Maybe that's important; maybe in a sense there's no real chain of command, if everyone's seamlessly working together to advance Asmodeus's goals, and for it to be a tyranny at all it has to be clear who can hurt who. That explains why torture is allowed; it doesn't explain why it's a particularly common proclivity. Is torture unique in having that property? Or maybe another way of thinking about it is - is everything which has that property torture?
If so, then this tea was torture; it was, after all, orchestrated in significant part to make it clear to the girls on the project who could hurt who. And the elaborate rituals of formality among nobles are torture too; they are after all about establishing who can hurt who without reprisal, communicated with every degree of incline of one's head -
- yeah, that's not a useful definition. Torture is one way to communicate that, but not the only one. But maybe the others bottom out in torture. Or, they could just bottom out in final execution, but that would be horrible and wasteful; better for everyone if they bottom out in torture. Except people like Asmodia.
Carissa's authority on the project, she is well aware, is located in significant part in the girls' knowledge that an experiment is being run, and that if they're incompetent even when barely punished then they'll be properly punished. She's doing without much torture, but not without the threat of it; the threat of it underlies the whole thing.
That feels like it might be as close to an answer as she's going to get on the spot, but the thought of backtracing inferences into spoken words is suddenly quite intimidating. Well, presumably the Grand High Priestess is reading her mind.
"I am. Abrogail has certainly made progress on her goal of having your thoughts not collapse when you know they are being read, and in teaching you to think in Asmodeus's service without being afraid of thinking." Aspexia hopes that was, in fact, the right goal. It was certainly a very proactive one.
"Further facts to consider: Hell - not Asmodeus, who cannot speak to us except in sharply circumscribed vision, but Hell - has never made any offer so merciful as you are contemplating, even though, you might think, Hell could gain advantage by making that offer to souls that would otherwise come to Asmodeus not at all. Because other souls would then demand it? Possibly, even as those recruited to your Project, if they were warned, might demand more than others to sell their souls -"
"No, Sevar, you should not do that. Hell is circumscribed not in how many souls they may buy, but in how much they may pay out and in the minimum they must pay per soul. If you'd succeeded in your sale, I expect it would have been worth it, to Asmodeus, but it might have caused ten or a hundred others not to be able to sell theirs, this year, I do not know the exact rate of exchange. Let your recruits sell you contracts on themselves such as you sold to Keltham, if you dislike the thought of devils cheating you."
"I don't think Hell is advantaged by being known to make such offers, not in - the current world they have to negotiate with. But Civilization's going to be bad for Hell, if we don't figure out how to make it good for Hell; the correct general policies are going to be different in a world that's building Civilization than they were in the world for all of history."
"Mm. Leaving aside the question of Hell negotiating with a more Lawful future Cheliax, I do hope to hear some acknowledgment from you that you will not warn your new recruits of their fair prices. It is theoretically a matter of the Queen to make it an order, as it is Crown rather than Church which depends on soul-sales to function, but I doubt she will be amused if she must tell you herself what I am telling you that she'd tell you."
"Good. With such a contract as you sold Keltham, you can rebuy their souls later, at some more reasonable price than your price to Keltham, and force Hell to either repurchase them more fairly, or yield them to your own purposes. So long as you don't cripple the entire Chelish Security apparatus."
"To return to the point. It should be clear to you by now that the lynchpin of your entire plan is the question of what - not the Church's doctrine, not Hell's hierarchy - what Asmodeus will accept in terms of Hell's possible arrangements. Cheliax is probably less important to Him than that; here He may accept more pragmatic sleights."
"And I call your attention again to the notion that torment is not simply for shaping souls. It has something to do with tyranny and slavery, with how the threat of torment produces obedience in mortals - though better still apparently would be if those mortals had no free will to begin with. It has to do, you suggest, with how the question of who torments who, makes there to be a hierarchy in Hell; and so a place in that hierarchy which one's pride lies in owning and defending, rather than a mob pursuing one goal without other organization."
"Is that enough for you to deduce the answer you are seeking, with such knowledge of Law as you now have? I bid you think about it, don't just say 'no' and refer the question back to me."
She tries to make herself speak the thoughts out loud, this time, for Subirachs's benefit and because it's not like she's less accountable for them if she only thinks them.
"Torture does shape souls, but it would not be acceptable to Asmodeus if Hell only used torture for the shaping of souls. Torture is also the bedrock of the Asmodean tyranny; if you could not use torture for punishment, then Hell would resemble just - one of Keltham's organizations, that fires you if it's displeased with you, and considers itself otherwise to have only the authority you agreed to. There probably wouldn't be discipline problems, if I had a little shard of Hell that merely fired those who displeased or disobeyed, but that's because they'd be tortured once fired; the shard would still be using torture as its bedrock, just making other parts of Hell actually do it. That would be unacceptable, I think. I don't know why. It feels intuitively unacceptable, like a tyranny trying to pretend it isn't one. If that shard of Hell produced much of value to Asmodeus, maybe those who owned it could afford to obfuscate the tyranny - but -
- oh, I have it, it wouldn't work. Humans, who are very very flawed, might treat 'you are treated well here, but could be fired' as substantially different from 'you're tortured for disobedience', and might flock to my shard if they were qualified, but if it's just an obfuscation then a more careful and more Lawful being wouldn't see a difference, it wouldn't produce different strategies in response, it's a dead end. It has to be actually different, to do anything actually valuable with beings that are not starting as incoherent as humans. If the tyranny is founded in something different, something that uses dath ilani better, it has to be founded in that all the way to its core.
if you were building it out of Carissae you could have its currency of power be intelligence. The weakest devils and petitioners are very stupid, and by proving themselves they are granted more intelligence, having demonstrated that they'll actually serve better with it, and the punishment for failure is for those enhancements to be stripped away; pride and tyranny and slavery, with pain only in whatever place it needs occupy for Asmodeus's other purposes. That might only work on people who are very like me. Then again, the appeal doesn't need to be anywhere near universal.
My answer is that if I'm not doing that with torture, I have to figure out what does do it, and ideally does it in a manner just as pleasing to Asmodeus and at no higher cost, because torture is cheap, and if it doesn't suit His will for Hell then no pragmatic concerns about the survival of Cheliax in this new world will make it possible, and if it does suit His will for Hell then it should be done. Though -
- such a thing wouldn't be granted to me unless I am such that it does not injure the order of Hell, to grant it to me. And right now I'm not Asmodean enough or frankly Lawful Evil enough."
"I surely hope not." It seems Aspexia Rugatonn has decided to look suddenly very tired, as she speaks. "My answer is that I don't know what exactly Asmodeus seeks. Why would I? We obey His orders, and by this means does He work His will. To command and be obeyed is Asmodeus's nature as a god, as much as Cayden Cailean is acting here through his domain of revelry. If Asmodeus tried to act otherwise, outside His domains, He would face much greater costs and difficulties."
"I know what tyranny we were instructed to create in Cheliax, but not the question to which that was His answer, I cannot say what else would have served Him well had matters been other than what they were. I know Hell's current doctrine. I don't know what bargains and compacts constrain the shape of Hell, in addition to His pure will, or what the combination of those two might permit in terms of alternative arrangements."
"If I knew Asmodeus's exact true goals and tried to serve those goals to the greatest possible extent, without awaiting His instructions, I could not be Most High, I could not be His cleric at all. Even if that served His interests best, He could not use me that way. It is outright contrary to His domain. If you hold Him in contempt for that you must hold every other god in the same contempt. Gods are beings of means and not just ends."
"And how could I know Asmodeus's own true answer? He is not mortal, was never mortal, His true answer will be some god-thing spoken in a language of Law I know not."
"What is tyranny, what is slavery, what is pride, what does Asmodeus truly want from us? If you told me that the actual and correct answer to this question had to be produced within one hour or all Hell would be destroyed, I would call Asmodia to this place and give her my Crown, then call Abrogail here to lend her mightier Crown to you, and hope that the two of you could solve it together."
"If it did not seem that there were other gods assisting here, if I was not nearly certain that Asmodeus has bargained with some Good god and paid them for some benefit He received, I would order you off this course. You are trying to understand what Asmodeus wants out of Hell and then create a new arrangement there He finds more satisfactory. That is something that Asmodeus alone literally could not arrange to have happen, even if, once on that course, He predicted your success."
"It doesn't mean that you aren't Chosen of Asmodeus, Sevar, or that He is not backing you in this. Only that the plan, if there is one, literally could not have been His alone."
"That occurred to me. Optimistically, that the Good gods have foreseen their defeat, now, and are bargaining for the world of Asmodeus's victory to contain some of that which they value. Less optimistically - bringing Keltham here perhaps had to be satisfactory to a number of different powers.
What does Irori even value." She says it aloud because she's instinctively saying all her thoughts aloud, and then realizes that maybe that wasn't one to say aloud.
"People solving their own problems for themselves. In a way Irori is more opposed to Asmodeus than Iomedae, in nature if not in goals. Iomedae commands paladins to Her service. Irori cannot act on anything in Golarion except insofar as somebody pursuing their own pathway may happen to benefit His goals."
"Yes, it's a very obvious thought. Do keep in mind that you were specifically warned against certain pitfalls here. Irori will not have asked Asmodeus to deliver you to Him in return, if that is what is going on here; that too is not Irori's nature as a god. He cares nothing for faith in Him, devotion to Him, for that is also contrary to His nature."
"I understand." What does it even mean to be a god of people solving their own problems for themselves. - no, Irori's aims don't matter here even if He is among the collaborators on this. Carissa belongs to Asmodeus and her only problem is how best to serve Him, and she's been promised Hell. Not exactly promised Hell. Promised that if she comes to Asmodeus with no thought of other choices she will be treasured. Perhaps someone else paid Asmodeus; what of it? She hopes Asmodeus got a lot of whatever He values, in exchange, and He gets Carissa too.
"And Sevar. Don't start thinking that torture can't be the answer to anything just because you suspect the current form of Hell is sometimes using it wrongly. You've seen Abrogail use it in a fashion of which you approve. I'm told that Keltham swiftly reinvented one of her hard-learned principles. The new Hell you are envisioning is a lot more likely to go over well with our Lord if it is, in fact, Hell, rather than a tiny section of Axis carved out of it."
"Yes, Most High." She knows that very well, so she's taking the reprimand not as 'you might not have known that' but as 'you are despite knowing that likely to err this way'. Which is fair.
It would backfire, wouldn't it, to tell most of the girls they're at risk of being too Lawful Neutral. Axis is generally understood to be pretty comfortable. It's not backfiring on Carissa. She can't fix Hell if she doesn't figure out how to be actually Lawful Evil and actually Asmodean and go to Asmodeus as ordered with no thought of any others, so that's a fixed point in all of her plans; she'll do that, and do the other things around that which make sense and serve Asmodeus.
"It is possible to present me with an alternate version of Asmodeus, such that I lift my head in contempt and say I would not serve such a god of Lawful Evil. If He had been Zon-Kuthon, for example."
"The hypothetical Asmodeus who cares anything at all for torture even if it serves not one of His other ends, as if He had been a little like Zon-Kuthon but still had His other goals and natures, is not one I hold in contempt. He would simply be paying costs now and then to have more torture happen, not on blind instinct torturing someone a little even if that ruined all His other goals. That is how He is with respect to tyranny, slavery, compacts, pride, they are, from His perspective, what having plans is for."
"The issue here is that you did not think clearly inside your hypothetical and decided with worrying speed inside it that such an Asmodeus could not be good enough for you. If you are that hasty in half-formed judgments I think you will end up too far from our Lord in spirit to present Him with an acceptable new Hell, and quite possibly fall into heresy at the level of outright disaster."
"You have flown very high and very far, and I think there is starting to be in you some of the recklessness that you saw in Asmodia. Do you recall her remedy?"
"And then she assigned herself to read a book, and when that failed her, Asmodia asked Security to hold her down and set her hand on fire, and that remedy was seemingly effective."
"It reassured me to hear of it, that the chosen of tropes and other gods are not thereby rendered entirely non-Asmodeans."
"I think you will have an easier time of redesigning Hell if you learn anything about how to use pain. Abrogail knows, the boy out of a Lawful Good world is learning swiftly, it is time for you to stop dawdling. The journey of a thousand leagues begins with a first step, and assigning standard torture codes to Pilar is not that step."
"Consult with Subirachs and devise a punishment for yourself that you expect to restore your cautionary judgment about when to decide in your thoughts that Lord Asmodeus would be a fool. If enduring that torment makes you weaker, if it fails and must be repeated stronger, you will have only yourself to blame for either end."
Aspexia Rugatonn rises, feeling older than her age, which is itself not negligible. If that's not how to get a cleric of Irori to come closer to embracing Asmodeus's true ways, she doesn't know what would be; but at the same time, what an Abyss of a problem to even find yourself trying to solve.
"Go with Asmodeus, Chosen," she says, letting her real weariness into her voice, as she turns to go. For Sevar surely is Chosen, probably of Irori, possibly of Asmodeus, definitely of the tropes, maybe all three.
Abrogail Thrune (having just departed her own meeting with Sevar) finds for herself an unremarkable room of Project Lawful.
The Queen then orders her most trusted Security on staff - one with a friendly and well-paid agreement with Abrogail Thrune to eventually let himself be made a statue until after the Queen's death, should the Queen's own end not come before his, because the Queen doesn't want some things spread about in Hell while she's alive - to tell Meritxell to come by for her terribly exciting secret meeting.
Abrogail Thrune approves of her attitude, in fact. Meritxell is not quite Abrogail Thrune before she donned the Crown of Infernal Majesty, but she's surely closer than some.
"Rise."
"I overheard your thought before about wanting to be one of the interesting girls."
"I'd already planned to make a certain arrangement with you that will, I suppose, make you somewhat more interesting. This will involve some nighttime Teleports to and from Egorian once your Ring of Sustenance kicks for you, and a license to commit what would be, for anyone but you, massive treason."
"But it is perhaps worth going to greater lengths than that, so long as we are about it. You see, it occurs to me that it would perhaps be well to have one uncomplicated unheretical Asmodean not touched by any other gods among Keltham's romantic interests."
"I have no idea if we can make you interesting enough to qualify as a true romantic interest to Keltham, but I'm willing to try."
"Anything your heart might be set upon already?"
Meritxell is speechless for a moment, because of how she has just had all of her wildest dreams offered to her because of her uncomplicated unheretical Asmodeanness and desire to be interesting, which is - better than her wildest dreams. And she learned lucid dreaming so as to eventually be able to fuck with people in elaborate mindscapes and has some pretty weird dreams.
"- I haven't given the question much thought," she says. The first thing that is coming to mind is 'being secretly part dragon' but she's pretty sure you can't suddenly become part dragon. "Or, actually - Keltham says he can't fall in love with me unless I enjoy it when he hurts me. Is that - can you -"
"It wouldn't be easy. Scribe's Binding, maybe? Miracle? I'm not sure Asmodeus would be willing to grant any Miracles targeting someone who was clearly to return to this interdiction zone... Keltham would ask questions. I suppose it's not especially more likely to happen in the Conspiracy than in alterCheliax? Well, except for the amount of government attention on the Project it implies, if you can have a ninth-circle scroll of extremely-alterCheliax-forbidden mind-control used on you... though, Keltham need not know that something quite so drastic was required, but then what if he asks for it to be used again..."
"To be clear, we are trying to do this without making Asmodia sad. Alas. There would be so many more exciting options if not for that."
"'I wrote to my cleric mother and she said she'd try to obtain some expensive secret things for me' will work on Keltham," says Meritxell determinedly rather than try to fathom the concept of using a Miracle on this, "Or we'll have to sort out whether we're allowed to talk to our parents and what they know, but we should sort that out anyway. We were planning to at some point make Keltham aware Scribe's Binding exists so he'll decide there's definitely not a conspiracy..." She is rambling. One should not ramble at the Queen.
I don't think I have requests, other than that. What would you have of me?"
"Due time, Meritxell, due time. You becoming a masochist, even if we could do that, would not itself make you more interesting than Yaisa, even if it was done in an interesting way."
"I do know a Baron with no heir, who owes me a rather severe favor, and for you to secretly be his heir..."
"Honestly, it strikes me as just too uncreative. I feel there must be something better to do with your character. But we can fall back on that if we lack better options."
"Gregoria's got that," says Meritxell with considerable irritation at Gregoria. " - I mean, she's not a Baron's heir but she's a Baron's heir's daughter and we can't have two, I would imagine, your Majesty." Her tone softening as she goes on with the sentence and remembers she is not remotely in a conversation with a classmate. "Long lost twin? No, that's boring too, and obviously tropey. Kidnapped by some foreign government that wants to learn the secrets of Project Lawful, and tortured horribly, but conveniently now I'm into that......Asmodia is absolutely going to veto that. Contacted by the agents of a foreign government who offered me wealth and power beyond my wildest dreams if I deliver them Keltham, or even his lecture notes, and like a responsible person I reported this immediately but I do want to see how much wealth and power beyond my wildest dreams I can squeeze out of them before they catch on."
"Perhaps alterCheliax is openly, deliberately making you more interesting, such as by appointing you para-Baroness, to test whether this causes you to have always matched one of Keltham's fetishes other than sadism..."
"Well, the problem there is, what if that works? Though I don't expect it would be all that damning, by Keltham's rules, unless the quality is very rare and we can't pretend it's more common..."
"I don't suppose you have a conveniently long-held fantasy about some way you could become something greater than what you are now, quickly, if you had access to moderately vast resources to bring it about?"
"I sort of always figured I'd uncover a treacherous plot against the Crown and get an important appointment out of it and have an ominous laboratory that glows for no particular reason but all of that's objectively less interesting than Project Lawful. Maybe if it was a really good plot against the Crown." ....she could catch Carissa plotting against the crown, that'd be dramatically interesting, and Carissa'd get in trouble and Keltham would intervene and say she's his and Cheliax can't break his things and that'd be progress... that's an Ione or Asmodia plan, by which Meritxell means too clever by half. Meritxell is clever but not actually too clever by half.
Meritxell blinks rapidly in confusion.
(She's not actually particularly interested in women, not that she expects that to matter or cares very much about it herself.)
(....no, the reason for that request is impersonation. Abrogail....wants Meritxell..... to impersonate her? ...sure, seems reasonable..... for what?)
"Indeed, the first step is for you to become able to, by Alter Self and Disguise Self, impersonate my body. Asking you to impersonate my demeanor is a bit much, of course. Even Altered and Disguised, it is unlikely that anyone would mistake you for myself for very long at all. But that particular mistake is not one we shall be requiring anyone to make."
"We can talk about the second step of the plan after you master the first."
"While we may perhaps end up discussing with others the possibilities for granting you a more interesting background, the matter of you learning to don my bodily form is very very secret, including from Sevar, Maillol, Subirachs, and literally everyone else besides the Most High. Security will be instructed accordingly. Do not simply acknowledge that order, repeat it back to me."
"I am ordered to learn to use Alter Self and Disguise Self to impersonate your body. This is secret, from everyone including Sevar and Maillol and Subirachs, and Security knows that, so if I think about it they presumably won't report that. Is there a specific lie I should tell if somehow it comes to their attention."
"Keltham seems to think Abrogail Thrune looks hotter than you do, and this, to Meritxell, is something that bothers you and leads to the thought that you could be better at seducing Keltham if only you also had my body. I heard you thinking that, smiled mysteriously at you, and granted you the secret permission."
A light flick of her will, and one long strand is severed from Abrogail Thrune's head, coiled into a ring, and presented to Meritxell.
"Let us hope that this is the start of a fruitful partnership," says Abrogail Thrune.
She's not sure that the ominous wordplay helps with anything, but who knows, perhaps it might.
"The multiverse getting destroyed looks less likely because we have a more completely satisfying account of Otolmens' cause for concern - Keltham being from another world with more advanced technology is basically sufficient to explain all Her interventions so far. It also fell some off Keltham getting petrified again for the second time in three days because that moves our timelines on how long Cheliax can hold onto him in an optimistic direction, and the multiverse is less likely to get destroyed if he gets out sooner before he's taught them too much. I might change my mind on that once I get a close look at the interim contracts he's drawn up."
Abadar can see contracts just fine, in nearly-human amounts of detail, but conveying them to the pharaoh is still completely incapacitating, and they have to work carefully around anything that'll leave the pharaoh insensible for a day, with as many things up in the air as are at present. "Tomorrow, if nothing comes up."
"Lastwall wants to buy all our Chelish intelligence, and warns that, uh, Cayden Cailean's Project Lawful contribution is apparently helping Cheliax track down and deport all Lastwall's intelligence apparatus, including people who worked for someone else but indirectly for Lastwall, and so therefore that selling it to them might make us subject to the mysterious possibly cake-related forces that have scourged their own people."
Cayden Cailean doesn't have temples. It's not on-theme.
In Absalom where He ascended, there's a tavern-cathouse run by a wife-and-husband pair, a madam and a brewmaster. The drink there isn't especially expensive. Neither are the women; they're tapped by Remove Disease weekly, which usually costs a hefty premium, but the women here tend to run older and not as pretty as most in that tier of the profession.
If you want a Regenerate on your missing hand, don't bother waving around 750gp, not here. They don't want the kind of custom that would bring them, if anything that expensive were sold here for money. Try saying under truthspell that you lost your hand during a drunken fight with a nobleman's bodyguard after the nobleman kicked a beggar in front of you. Afterwards you might get a drink poured for you that also can't be bought with money, and a night of warmth that's real.
Neither the wife nor the husband has Grand High Anything in front of their titles, or indeed, any particular titles at all.
It is the center of Cayden Cailean's faith in Golarion if anything is.
The revelry in that place has been diminished, these last few days since the gods fought.
"You too," the swashbuckling swordsman in leather armor says to the somber-looking barkeep, as one of the special drinks is drawn for him.
"Yeah."
They haven't lost all their spells.
They've lost some of their spells. Higher-level ones in particular. Cayden Cailean is still able to grant a Regenerate, it seems, if that is necessary to restore the missing hand of some drunken do-gooder.
"Any idea why?" says the swashbuckler to the barkeep. "Sent from Him, or otherwise? I'm sure not getting any touches of reassurance about it."
The barkeep shakes his head. "Nothing direct, and what I'm getting implied from - the tavern rumors, that He might influence, from the wanderers that might be drawn here, by His will - it's not -"
There's moisture in the barkeep's eyes.
The swashbuckler sips his drink. It's still pretty good. "If there's news that bad, it's not going to get better if you delay in the telling."
"The tavern rumors are leaning that He sacrificed too much of His divinity fighting against Zon-Kuthon, so that Zon-Kuthon would die inside the vault after being sealed there. Just. You know. The obvious stupid stuff that drunks make up, because, because how would they know, even if that was true, right? Probably made up after they heard rumors about His clerics losing some of their spells, and put that together with Cheliax cutting into Nidal faster than expected."
The swashbuckler nods. "I don't suppose the tavern rumors say that it's just temporary and He'll recover in a year, or a century?"
"Priestesses of - Desna - and Shelyn - have been wandering in, on impulse, they don't know what this place is, but when they get here, they tend to feel an impulse to preach, to our faithful -" There's tears running down the barkeep's cheeks now.
Some of the other drinkers look uncomfortable, but not surprised, like this is a sight they've seen before.
"Oh," the swashbuckler says. "Do we know how long."
The barkeep shakes his head.
The swashbuckler realizes, somewhat to his own surprise, that he's also crying. "Well, He had a good run, since He first got drunk enough to go for the Starstone, you know, having that actually work was more than anyone could've expected, really, and if the tavern rumors are true, it's a fine way to finally go."
The barkeep pours himself a glass, a small one, because it's not the first time he's had this conversation today, and won't be the last, and clinks it against the last of the swashbuckler's beer. "To Cayden Cailean."
"To Cayden Cailean."
They drink.
"He's obviously not actually dead," the swashbuckler says, after that. "I'm still getting spells, you're still getting spells. He could just be - warning us - that it might happen. Telling us we might need to find a new deity, or else adjust our lifestyles, sometime soon. Making sure we're not taken by surprise, if it happens."
"Hell of a way to warn us, if it's just a possibility."
"He might still pull through. He's lucky that way, right? Practically the god of having things unexpectedly work out okay."
"If He lives, I will Plane Shift to Elysium so I can personally punch Him in the fucking face."
Jacint Subirachs slides a slim folder across the table, the first of many.
"I suppose I may as well start with the only native Intelligence 19 candidate that turned up in the right age bracket. Wisdom 15. Second-circle wizard. Was definitely angling for the research track. Loyalty mindreads consistent with someone keeping their head down, doing well in school, aiming for a comfortable life in magical research or crafting, not thinking a lot about what happens after that life ends, no unusual heresies or resentments. Enough submission and masochism to be trainable without much difficulty. Not very ambitious, a follower not a leader. Mathematical talent high, more outstanding at that than at wizardry."
"There is of course the obvious sticking point, and I expect you'll turn this one down, but it seemed worth checking if you wanted to apply the obvious fix."
"Alter Cheliax wouldn't. I'm ....worried that sex has weird correlates beneath the surface somewhere which a potion won't fix and Keltham will notice. I guess he could be open about having done it, and claim it was voluntary? ...does that imply weird things....preventing pregnancy would be cheaper if sex change potions were incredibly cheap, but they could be in the price range a wizard can afford without changing society much.... - let's see how much better he is than the other candidates and come back to it."
Raised by a wizard father, an accomplished devil binder, who decided to have his children raised by devils and cut off entirely from the rest of human civilization in case they ended up more Asmodean that way. Eight kids, four suicides, but this one turned out well. Loyal, incredibly smart, third-circle already at age 18 having been tutored privately rather than going to a wizarding academy. She is noted not to be good at talking to other human beings. Splendour could probably fix that.
Another folder. "Intelligence 18, Wisdom 16, second-circle. Faint tiefling ancestry, only visible in pointed ears and slitted, brightly colored eyes. She played it up heavily at her wizard academy, and pretended to be half vampire and half succubus at anyone foolish enough to buy a young girl's bluff. Not particularly submissive, masochistic enough to be less scared of Hell than most. Terrorized what other students she could, but always acted with great obedience and discipline towards those formally above her in the chain of command."
"If that one works out terribly what went wrong. ...gets Keltham thinking about nonhumans? No, actually, I think that's fine, it's a tangent where we don't have anything to hide. I guess we'll have to make a call about whether alter Golarion has succubi, but I lean 'yes, we're not pretending the Abyss is nice'. Yeah, all right, let's show her to him."
Next file. Intelligence 18, Wisdom 17, boy aged 22; he'd be pulled back from the Worldwound. Clean disciplinary record, notably good at math; enjoys coming up with elaborate torture variant potions in his free time. Not a match for Keltham sex-wise even if they made him into a girl. "Probably makes sense to present Keltham with some boys? Even if it makes him jealous, that seems potentially productive..."
"I want more masochist girls we can potentially distract him with but I haven't said it should only be girls. I think the - tropes - might want it to be girls, but we don't know if they're real and I don't know what happens if we defy them. Anyway alter Cheliax's government mostly is interested in the engineering stuff, here, and it'd be silly to gender-segregate that."
It's possible that Jacint may have misunderstood the Chosen's will, here. But Jacint did say that she'd go hunting for masochistic female mathematicians and the Chosen didn't tell her not to... admittedly, Jacint is, in theory, Sevar's superior...
Oh well. They sent her some boys anyways.
"I would not be too surprised, under his circumstances, if Keltham finds himself mysteriously dissatisfied with all the male candidates. Or - if the tropes try to stop us from adding males, do they do anything visible, that Keltham would notice? Like mysterious accidents occurring to all the males he chooses..."
" - maybe? I think things so far have been - not subtler, they haven't been subtle at all, but not accidents, they've all been the product of some agent doing things for its own reasons. This might be a question alter Cheliax just brings to Keltham, if they're still worried about tropes, though they're much less worried than us about tropes because Carissa sold her soul without incident and Asmodia doesn't have superpowers......
Ugh. Tropes are probably real and alter Cheliax doesn't think so, which doesn't feel very sustainable at all.....how many good candidates do we have if we leave out the boys."
"We have about five-sixths of the candidates. But all the boys they included were boys where somebody decided 'maybe this one's good enough to be worth an elixir of sex-shifting', and while in some cases those judgments seem a bit questionable, still..."
Next folder. Intelligence 18-possibly-19-ish, it detected as 19 once but 18 all other times tried. Wisdom 14. Intellectual achievements include mastering a dozen different languages and punching above her weight in Wondrous Items crafting classes. Sped through her math classes in academy. Neither submissive nor masochistic, spotted history of disciplinary problems related to taking orders from people she deems less intelligent than herself, but those seem to have yielded to correction. Loyalty scans show that her overt loyalty to Asmodeus is heavily predicated on imagining Him as a supremely intelligent mastermind. Did not require much correction from the Church to look out solely for herself first and foremost within her own thoughts, holds non-Lawful-Evil alignments in genuine contempt.
Jacint comments that this is a known personality type that would desert Cheliax if given a clear opportunity, but tends to fall promptly into line once forced to sell her soul. Jacint is not quite sure what happens if you force her to sell her soul and then try to turn her into a dath ilani, but it seems to Jacint that if they go with all meek obedient engineers then those will be lacking some fire that is probably important?
Next candidate. Intelligence 16, Wisdom 18, Splendour 8, barely 2nd-circle, submissive-masochistic-slave nature, unusually pretty. Left something of a mess by her school experiences and her difficulty in placing herself as anything but a victim there, struggling through by sheer force of academic effort and excellence. Younger than Keltham but within his stated one-year age-difference limit, if they don't want to lie about that. Did excellently at the mathematical part of the curriculum, punching well above her measured Intelligence level. Her theology is whatever she thinks she's been told her theology is, by the last person who looked like an authority and told her that; she has no signs of theological opinions otherwise.
Jacint comments that this is somebody who might actually fall in love with Keltham if he showed her kindness, assuming that this problem was not otherwise headed off at the pass, which Jacint is pretty sure she can do. Or if Carissa Sevar herself happens to want a slave in love with her, it wouldn't take long.
It seems inefficient to be kind to people so infrequently they're bowled over when they encounter it. ...she's going to not share that thought, she is working on humility and not jumping to heresy as soon as she notices something done differently than she'd do it.
"Maybe when I'm less busy," she says absently about having a slave who is in love with her. " - or actually - it seems to me like I barely have enough hours in the day as it is and don't really have time for entertainment, but becoming Eviller isn't entertainment, it's really important, so maybe I should be prioritizing it more? Is this a good angle on becoming Eviller, do you think?"
"Do you want to have a slave in love with you for purposes of being more cruel to her? If yes, then let that be pursued by all means, any count's heiress could have the same for herself. If not, I think that forcing it isn't especially likely to be good for you. Hell's exact wordings often don't bear as much weight as we might hope, when passing instructions down from Asmodeus, but they did say to find the desires within yourself that would keep you out of Axis and not to force them."
INT 17, WIS 18, left wizard school when Asmodeus chose him. Noted as a strong mathematician back when he was in school. Loyal, obviously; when Asmodeus selected him it wasn't in a temple or during prayer, as is most typical, but while he was witnessing the execution of a heretic, and he was initially concerned that the heretic's god had chosen him and immediately turned himself in. 25, which is older than they were asked for but two different teachers mentioned him when asked about math talents.
An actual countess's heir who applied via the entirely different route of wanting to be in the next batch of 'Project Lawful girls' and get her own cake powers. There were something like fifty of those, from various daughters of nobility.
This is the one with Intelligence 17, Wisdom 15, Splendour 18, third-circle at age 18, and an interest in mathematics for which she's received private tutoring since she was 14. A prior member of the Asmodean inner ring, who knows herself to be inescapably damned via the route of being unable to sincerely Atone for what she's done. She's lived a proud life but a disciplined one, and has proven herself able to endure privations more severe than Project Lawful's living standards. Will probably take orders from the Chosen of Asmodeus without problems; having Asmodia instruct her on her alter-self seems more like it might run into issues of overt obedience and internal contempt. It will expend some noticeable amount of political capital if she ends up executed as an irretrievable heretic, but not disastrously so; it can be made clear to her mother that Project Lawful is not safe physically or spiritually.
" - yes, all right, I definitely want her, though we're going to have to be careful how we present that application to Keltham, I predict he hasn't extrapolated very much about nobles from the things he got told about nobles. I assume all the other such are much less promising?"
"You'd think those hopefuls might deduce that the first batch being recruited from Ostenso's wizard academy would have tipped them off that we might possibly want something associated with wizardry in some fashion, but in this you would be optimistic. I suppose I should not call it stupid; they saw a potential advantage and it costs them little to ask if they might have it."
Carissa finds it incomprehensible that not all nobles learn wizardry. Well, the ones who are sorcerers have an excuse, she guesses. "Well, too bad, because we could use all their Bluff and I suspect they might have another angle on some of our deception challenges. .... we show Keltham some mediocre applicants, actually, since he doesn't think we did pre-filtering, though I expect it'll be easy enough to write their profiles such that he rejects them..."
"A dangerous game, I think, if he perchance wants one of those anyways. If we have more than eight candidates he must needs to do some selecting in any case... I think he is not expecting us to have filtered the candidates but will be reasoning that 'Governance' has filtered it somehow, since we're not just presenting him with a list of every wizard student in Cheliax?"
Intelligence 16, Wisdom 13, very pretty, a decent wizard, did fine in math class, and actually has an obligate rape fetish that mindreads show her as still being internally conflicted and in denial about. Would be a tier-2 researcher at best - though her prior accomplishments look no worse than Tonia's, say - but possibly useful for Sevar's corruption plans?
Honestly Carissa is presently feeling worried that Keltham's just going to cheerfully do things that might technically be Evil but that he's very sure won't hurt anyone no matter what kinds of people she throws his way. But she doesn't actually have enough evidence to reach that conclusion, just a doomy feeling. "And we can get her a Ring of Sustenance and extra tutoring, to keep up....actually, can we quote Keltham a start date that's five or seven days out for all the new candidates, for screening/travel/orientation, so they're close on their Rings and we get nights with them? Those'll be extra important while they're new and getting oriented."
"All the potential obstacles I see to the later start date seem more your business than mine, Chosen - how Keltham reacts, whether the new candidates are then further behind in lessons compared to the previous..."
"With respect to this particular candidate, I note that I don't have a solution yet in mind for getting Keltham to choose her when her overt accomplishments seem less than those of others, and we cannot tell him the real reason, and I am not sure what lie would reliably avoid being caught out? I presented her to you in hopes you would see a solution that has not yet come to me."
"Hmmm. Note from her recommender saying that she's only average at the - calculating part of math, and a little below average at how fast she works things out, but strikingly clever at deriving underlying rules and so on - where we can produce the 'strikingly clever' by giving her a headband and extra six hours?"
"Except that if she, the only candidate who seems slow inside classes but to show up the next day with better understanding, then turns out to possess a very convenient fetish from the standpoint of a Conspiracy trying to corrupt Keltham sexually... I don't see how it gives very much away, actually, but I imagine Asmodia wailing and pleading that it didn't happen in alterCheliax."
"In alter Cheliax we just let Keltham pick which students he gets. ....and possibly we should just do that, once we've filtered for loyalty. We can have a second list of girls for him to introduce once the project gets bigger and needs more than just very bright researchers."
"I think if we force this too much it's not going to work," Gregoria says after two hours of Personality Workshopping Sessions. "Tonia's shy, but speaks up when people are talking about farmers, and sort of thinks of nobility as something from fairy tales. She has a massive crush on Keltham but has never dated anyone before and doesn't actually know how seducing people works and so she's planning to just nurse it forever. Peranza wants to travel the world and now that she's seen Civilization wants to travel there too even though that's probably metaphysically impossible. She's going to ask Keltham to ask if we can go to the beach, and display some enthusiasm when we're shopping in Absalom via scry, and read some travel novels. I think everyone should stop having sex and do their jobs, though I'll change my mind if Keltham wants me.
Whenever we try to add things on top of that they seem artificial and stupid because that's actually perfectly descriptive of many people and most people don't also have a tragic backstory where their sister was murdered by muggers in front of them or an ex-boyfriend who was Good and that's why they will only date Evil people now or -" She rips up an entire ideas sheet, demonstratively. "It's okay if we're background characters, as long as we're mastering Law and asking Keltham good questions in class and not looking awestruck whenever he says 'if the Queen were mean to someone you'd obviously overthrow the government' or whatever."
"I think having a brother who joined a paladin order isn't that much of a weird backstory, doesn't require acting ability, and preserves some options for us later," says Meritxell. "Leave it on the list for Sevar to look at at least. Also leave on the one where your father died in the revolution where the Queen took power, it'd be genuinely weird if none of us have relatives who did."
"Fine."
Asmodia has mostly been trying to collect a list of everything that Keltham now has seen about alterCheliax and it is a LONG list and she wants it to be SHORTER and then NOT GROW ANY MORE but Keltham would unfortunately NOTICE THAT because in alterCheliax everyone would obviously be CHEERFUL about Keltham learning MORE AND MORE THINGS.
Occasionally part of her mind overhears somebody is saying something that is not Probability-Sightful thinking and she casts a sniper shot in that direction, like right now, where Keltham is obviously immediately going to ask 'how many people join paladin orders' in order to calculate exactly how odd that is and even if the person he's asking shouldn't appear to know that they need to know it themselves so that when Keltham asks correlated questions he will get answers that all make sense put together.
(Gregoria thinks that in alter Cheliax probably a lot of those who serve at the Worldwound for a decade join a paladin order, but obviously they should check the rates from Taldor first. Between the eight girls there are thirty living siblings, though, so lots of things that happen in alter Cheliax in one in thirty people should be represented with someone's sibling.)
There's less Security running fewer Detect Thoughts today, as they catch up on their own downtime, but lunch is a good time to scan everyone again; Security reports to Sevar that Peranza's mind is obsessing about that thing the Queen said about torturing people until they start having thoughts again. In a way that this particular Security finds somewhat reminiscent of that earlier thing with being turned into a statue, which he absolutely does not mean any insult to the Chosen by observing, but he has seen Sevar thinking at all about some things and is resigned to being a statue for a few decades after his own death and possibly someone doesn't want Peranza to fall in love with the Queen or... whatever it is that tropes do.
Carissa is slightly worried that everyone including her is just using tropes as shorthand for 'extremely weird things will happen.'
But, Peranza does seem concerning. Carissa has no idea how to tell if someone is obsessing over 'I'll hurt you until you have thoughts' in a way that makes it a good idea to hurt them until they have thoughts or not. She tried being sympathetic and generous and that didn't work at all; maybe that's the indicator that the way to get through to Peranza is torture?
Let's keep a closer eye on her, mindread her more often, she responds.
Asmodia shows up to lunch late, looking slightly twitchy, and after lunch takes aside Sevar to request that Keltham possibly stay a statue for longer, because she's starting to realize the actual magnitude of the problems involved in constructing alterCheliax and they are large and in particular for example it's clear that Keltham saw something anomalous about the 500gp/week price of Security wizards compared to 100gp/week for good 4th-circle enchanters, and just because this is true in realCheliax does not mean that it is necessarily true in alterCheliax, and the promised consultant from intelligence isn't here yet, and even if they were Asmodia now needs some other kind of consultant instead, and maybe it would be kind of a good idea to figure out exactly how tanned everyone should look and then keep them that tanned and keep Keltham a statue at least until everyone's Rings of Sustenance kick.
" - I think we'll give other things away, smaller things, if we haven't seen him in a week. We'll change too much; he'll notice. The difference in price is fine, it's because Cheliax holds the northern Worldwound perimeter where it's approximately impossible to supply the forts by land or by sea so teleporters earn a massive premium, Keltham doesn't have any understanding of military logistics but if he did he'd say 'wow, you're holding a sixty mile border with twenty thousand troops a thousand miles from your own territory somewhere crops don't grow and there's no local populace no fucking wonder your teleporters can do whatever they want as long as they do their jobs.'"
An hour later Asmodia comes back and argues, talking slightly faster than usual for her, that maybe they actually need to keep Keltham a statue for slightly less than a month, in case Keltham noticed that Golarion has a moon. Two days is enough of a skip for him to possibly notice the anomaly in the Moon's expected phase change - even if not right away, later when he knows what the phase changes are supposed to be, Keltham might look back and notice the anomaly if he remembers -
A fourth-circle comms cleric is now here, slightly out of breath. They're not a medical specialist, but can try a Cure Light Wounds and a Lesser Restoration, neither of which appear to do anything, nor does a hard slap wake her.
...possibly Asmodia should be put into a bed somewhere and Subirachs should have a look at her? He doesn't have a Restoration ready but Subirachs probably has one. Also vastly more medical experience.
(A sufficiently good roll on Sense Motive may show that this cleric very slightly flinched on seeing that Asmodia was the patient.)
Message relayed by Security from Subirachs to Sevar, a few minutes later:
Asmodia is unconscious and nonresponsive for no visible reason, full Restoration didn't help, nor did a couple of more extreme stimuli than slapping (now healed, of course).
This is consistent with an unfortunately large number of different phenomena, though most of those can be ruled out by the absence of visibly attacking shadows and so on.
Given the way things have been on Project Lawful, Subirachs would otherwise suspect a divine vision, with similar effects as Ione Sala would've shown before she recovered. But Otolmens should've prevented that, if Subirachs understands that setup correctly?
Yeah. Okay. They need to convey a question to Hell. The question is approximately just 'in light of Asmodia being insensate can someone authorized to know what's going on with her advise.' Subirachs is welcome to suggest a more diplomatic wording; Carissa doesn't send letters to Hell a lot.
"...I don't know. On the one hand contacting Hell with this is an expenditure of totally unknowable size. On the other, if we got another divine vision despite the interdiction -or if someone put her in a coma as part of kidnapping her consciousness to talk to -
- immediate report to the Grand High Priestess on what happened to Asmodia, note that contacting Hell is contemplated to ask the advice of someone who knows what's up with her." That's just making this decision someone else's problem but a decision this big should be.
(Previously:)
Asmodia has entered a state of permanent low-grade panic that she is probably never coming out of again, now that she's had time to catch her breath, get organized, read through more of the transcripts, and realize that her job is impossible.
Keltham was told that 5th-circle wizards got paid 500gp/week and 4th-circle wizards got paid 100gp/week and he immediately asked questions about that which means he was DEDUCING SOMETHING and Asmodia does not know WHAT HE WAS DEDUCING and in fact Asmodia does not have ANY IDEA IN THE FIRST PLACE of why a 5th-circle wizard gets paid 500gp/week and not 400gp/week or 700gp/week and probably NOBODY ELSE IN CHELIAX REALLY KNOWS EITHER except that Keltham clearly DOES KNOW and what's worse the numbers in alterCheliax are going to be DIFFERENT for example they're nicer to their peasants so they probably have LOWER TAXES instead of starving everyone so the nobles can have fancier parties and so the figure of 500gp/week for a Security wizard is probably WRONG and will be LOWER except that maybe actually that number is supposed to be HIGHER because alterCheliax hasn't bought the souls of its Security wizards and can't force them to work with threats of Hell and the one thing Asmodia is sure of is that the figure of 500gp/week for a Security wizard in alterCheliax is WRONG except that they ALREADY TOLD KELTHAM THAT NUMBER and now a bunch of other things in alterCheliax have to CHANGE and Asmodia does not know WHICH THINGS and Keltham obviously DOES and it is dawning on Asmodia that actually what they are trying to do here is construct AN ENTIRE ALTERNATE UNIVERSE TO CONTAIN KELTHAM whose internal consistency it is now Asmodia's job to MAINTAIN except that instead of Asmodia getting to carefully design this universe it is being PUT TOGETHER AT RANDOM by all her fellow researchers running around TELLING KELTHAM THINGS like when Sevar told him about the alterPilars and EVEN ON THEIR OFF-DAYS people are RUNNING AROUND MAKING THEIR BROTHERS JOIN PALADIN ORDERS while Asmodia was SUPPOSED TO BE CATCHING UP and Asmodia cannot begin to GUESS what else needs to be true for 1 in 30 siblings of Ostenso wizard students to join paladin orders but she can't just ORDER EVERYBODY TO STOP DOING ANYTHING INFORMATIVE because they need to be a NATURAL amount of informative or Keltham will NOTICE and by the time Asmodia figures out how all the pieces actually needed to fit together it is all going to be INCONSISTENT and NOT MAKE ANY SENSE and they need to make Keltham a statue for NEARLY ONE MONTH so that when he comes out the MOON IS IN THE CORRECT PHASE in case Keltham NOTICED THE MOON AT ALL but mostly so that Asmodia can figure out WHAT ALL OF ALTER-CHELIAX LOOKS LIKE including inventing all the Law she NEEDS in order to understand how ALL OF THE NUMBERS FIT TOGETHER and she is now trying AGAIN to REPORT ON THIS TO SEVAR but Asmodia is having trouble putting stuff into WORDS instead of intuitions about NUMBERS THAT WON'T FIT and she didn't explain CONVINCINGLY enough so Sevar SHOT HER DOWN and said that Asmodia needed to take a break and go SHOPPING and probably thinks she's MANIC but this is the opposite of MANIC it is being in a state of permanent low-grade panic that THEIR HASTILY CONSTRUCTED UNIVERSE is going to end up FULL OF INCONSISTENCIES any one of which could DESTROY IT because SEVAR ISN'T LISTENING TO HER and even if Sevar DID Asmodia is FLATLY NOT SMART ENOUGH TO HOLD IT ALL TOGETHER and can't possibly get enough TIME and this would be a great moment for somebody to give her a HEADBAND MORE POWERFUL THAN THE QUEEN'S or possibly one of the gods running around here could RAISE HER INTELLIGENCE BY 20 POINTS if they wanted this whole Keltham containment endeavor to be even SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE -
Asmodeus.
Look at that MORTAL there. The one who is currently UNCONSCIOUS possibly for reasons of PURE COINCIDENCE that have nothing to do with any MISTAKES Otolmens may have made recently.
That mortal is thinking CORRECTLY. Asmodeus should tell the other mortals to listen to THAT ONE.
No! Nobody else intervened on that squirrel. OBVIOUSLY. That wouldn't happen inside the interdiction zone without AUTHORIZATION from Otolmens which obviously She would not have granted them.
Never mind, then! Otolmens has LOTS of work still to do and should not have bothered ASMODEUS who is probably ALSO very busy!
Asmodeus proposes a trade with Otolmens! There's this here unconscious squirrel who has ideas for containing the squirrel on behalf of Cheliax. Asmodeus obviously cannot intervene in the interdiction zone, but if Otolmens were to shower that squirrel with a bunch of element-57, or element-62, or element-65, extracted from deep under the earth, the nearby squirrels would learn that Asmodeus and Otolmens want that squirrel listened to, and then it would be listened to. Once it's conscious, which Asmodeus is sure His squirrels are working very diligently on and definitely don't suspect it happened for god-related-reasons.
Ione and Meritxell have been using up Cunnings and Wisdoms to try to supervise this in the absence of Asmodia and Sevar. Their approach was to get everybody to say what their actual backgrounds and personality facts were like in realCheliax, then try to substitute alterCheliax-unacceptable truths one-for-one with alterfacts that should be about of equivalent rarity in alterCheliax. Gregoria having a brother who's a paladin is pending a decision about whether that's an appropriate substitution for being one of a hundred children of a Baron's heir, which does seem like something that should probably get substituted because that's probably not true in alterCheliax? They're not sure how many alterChelish people go off to be paladins though, that seems like an Asmodia or even a Sevar decision, and also Meritxell and Ione can't agree to within an order of magnitude on how unlikely it is that Gregoria is one of a hundred children of a Baron's heir.
Ione privately messages Sevar to ask if there's anything she should know about artifact headbands, Law epiphanies, and/or disintegrating Asmodean philosophies in her capacity as Nethysian sanity officer.
Querying to Maillol says that they don't have an ETA on the Queen's promised intelligence officer yet. He'll add both an urgency marker to the Queen's authorized requisition of such, and also the explicit question about wizard salary data in multiple countries outside Cheliax, and send that out on the next packet.
All right. What hypotheses are still live on Asmodia. Divine intervention but that shouldn't have been possible, something done to her in Hell which broke just now, thought a thought that caused her to become comatose.... can they use Modify Memory to erase the precise moment she was walking out of the room and fell over -
Also at around this time, Ione is requesting permission to have everybody assign probabilities on What's Actually Happening To Asmodia. But only if it's the sort of thing where they'll get to find out the actual true answer afterwards, since otherwise they'll be training the wrong skill.
If Asmodia actually just got replaced by her future self, by the way, Ione is quitting Project Lawful to work someplace saner, like a lunatic asylum.*
(*) These are nicer than you'd expect for Cheliax, though that's setting the bar low. If nobody with deep pockets expects a person might get better and then be useful again, the putative patient will quickly get put to other, more remunerative uses.
"Doesn't Nethys like it when everyone is driven insane by the pursuit of knowledge? - that is not encouragement to go insane." Carissa bets 60% it was a intervention by - something not bound by the interdict? An Outer God, which may or may not exist and which supposedly aren't safe to speak of in more detail than that? A demon lord? She bets demon lords don't obey the interdict. 10% Asmodia thought a mind-destroying thing. 30% it's something Carissa hasn't thought of.
Sounds like Asmodean propaganda to her, but then Ione wouldn't KNOW whether Nethys actually likes that because NOBODY IS GIVING IONE ANY THEOLOGY BOOKS.
Is Asmodia insane? If Asmodia is insane, Ione would recommend trying putting that artifact headband back on her, or killing her and Raising her, assuming everybody's already tried standard healing spells that work against insanity.
Results of trying to remove the Wisdom headband: Asmodia's pulse sped up further; she didn't awaken. Putting the headband back on brought her pulse down to its previous slightly-fast state.
Results of requesting Asmodia's last minute of memory removed: Scrolls/items of Modify Memory are not cheap and they don't just have one lying around. They'll add it to the next requisition packet, though, the palace might have something. Asmodia admittedly does have a priority "do not lose this person or incredibly bad things will happen to you" marker on her from Aspexia Rugatonn.
In general this project should have some scrolls of it sitting around at all times; this work is dangerous in specifically a Modify Memory kind of way.
Things to try before they try killing and then Raising her: Break Enchantment, obviously, if it hasn't already been tried. Polymorphing her into a hamster and back. Polymorphing her into a dragon and back in case what happened was she had some insight human minds can't bear. Petrifying and unpetrifying her. At that point Carissa leans towards going ahead and killing her but wants a second opinion from someone with more curse expertise.
Break enchantment: No effect.
Regular polymorphing to hamster: Unconscious hamster.
Baleful polymorphing to hamster: The hamster is awake and runs around in a cute and not especially sapient fashion! When the hamster reverts to Asmodia, it seemed like she might have been awake for an instant, but then closed her eyes again. Security might have been imagining it; he unfortunately didn't have Detect Thoughts running during that instant.
...there is a scroll of Greater Polymorph onsite, though Security doesn't even know why. Does Sevar want them to take Asmodia outside and turn her into a small dragon?
...apparently nobody's performed a Detect Thoughts which this Security thought the last Security would have thought to do.
Asmodia doesn't have any visible thoughts, her Intelligence still detects as 17 but - possibly it's a weird 17? The feeling is not particularly describable.
Still go on dragonforming her?
- and then suddenly Asmodia is a dragon!
The shock of this is, in fact, considerable, such that she would have fallen over in a tangle of limbs if she hadn't already been lying down.
Her forelimbs flail out and strike mainly sand, and her wings try to flex but she's lying on one of them which is uncomfortable. She does have any instincts for her new body, but it's a struggle to override her conscious mind’s attempt to override those.
Somebody shouts “She’s aware!”
She does soon manage to struggle to all four of her limbs and look down on Sevar and the Security, who do look noticeably smaller when you are an eighteen-foot-long red dragon with a thirty-foot wingspan and a seven-foot neck rising above a five-foot-high body.
It takes several tries to talk.
"I seem to be a dragon now," rumbles Asmodia. “I do not know why this would be the case.”
“The last thing I remember is thinking that my new job was completely impossible, and our newly constructed universe was going to end up internally inconsistent and inevitably fall apart, and that if any of the gods running around wanted me to succeed at that they needed to give me an additional 20 points of Intelligence.”
"No... except that I... feel weirdly like... my job is possible after all? I just have to accept that my boss is going to ignore all my reports, and everybody else is going to run around making my life harder, and all I can actually do is triage my universe's possible, probable, and definite inconsistencies and try to keep it all going for as long as I can until it inevitably falls over because nobody ever listens to me, but I can definitely do that for a while, so long as I just keep trying and never rise above a state of continual low-grade panic."
"Am I actually a dragon now? Keltham will have questions about this."
Asmodia cranes her neck around. It's kind of a nice sunny day on the beach and she is a dragon and... even though she has an enormous backlog of work to do, which is no doubt even larger now that her coworkers have spent several hours unsupervised... Asmodia still feels an odd sense that she has never actually been religious enough to experience before, that the world is kind of neat and somebody put in a bunch of work to maintain it for her, and that flying around as a dragon would be one way of appreciating it.
"...you did just tell me to take a break. I'll possibly try flying around and maybe test out my breath weapon, targeted at the ocean obviously, if that's okay with you and Security. Somebody yell at me to get to ground before my thirteen minutes are up?"
"Oh, and if I fall over when I turn back - try a Fox's Cunning, would be my guess?"
Asmodia is - not totally sure, thinking back - that there wasn't an almost infinitesimal fraction of a moment there when she did have an additional 20 points of Intelligence before, obviously, you would think this would be obvious to anyone who qualified for 'god' in the first place, her brain completely crashed.
WHICH GOD WOULD DO THAT COMPLETELY USELESS AND DANGEROUS THING? What was the point? Was it to tell Asmodia to be careful what to wish for? Why would a god spend intervention budget on that? Why not make Asmodia an achievable amount of smarter? Do literally any of the gods have a plan where they achieve their goals by doing things that make sense.
...that's probably Otolmens??? And, if it is, that's among the most disturbing pieces of theological news that Aspexia Rugatonn has ever come across.
After some reflection, the Most High classifies the entire affair at the level where only her successor gets to know the probable real story, and writes back to Sevar (for the evening packet back) that she thinks she knows which god that is, and Sevar need not inquire further.
Asmodia steps back from the large wall in the room she commandeered as Project Lawful's secret meeting place for backstories, and exhales with a weird feeling of grim satisfaction.
Everything Keltham knows that's true across both realCheliax and alterCheliax and that's believed to be fine, is written in green; Asmodia obviously can't write everything like this, but she's summarized some major areas to keep in mind.
Everything that's true in alterCheliax but not realCheliax, is written in orange. Glimpse of Truth is Glimpse of Beyond, Pilar has an obligate rape fetish, Asmodeus is a great deal more benevolent.
Everything they've told Keltham that seems potentially dangerous or problematic, and doesn't have a known recovery or excuse that makes total sense, is written in red. This includes matters like Security wizards being paid 500gp/week, or 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good?', or 'Why did Asmodia really get her new headband?', or 'Wait there's how many alterPilars per Subirachs and you're not doing anything else with them?' Similarly with old memories that Keltham might reexamine and find problematic even if he's not looking there right now; such as the previous history of less confident Project Lawful students going quiet when Keltham says potentially fraught things in class.
In black are the known inconsistencies, the cracks and flaws in their universe, where all they can do is hope that Keltham never looks in that wrong direction. At present there's a single entry, which is that they're hoping Keltham isn't tracking the phase of the moon, or the progress of time of moonrise/moonset.
Asmodia considered writing the name of everybody responsible for a red item or a black item next to those items, but ran into a snag when the only black item would have Abrogail Thrune's name written next to it. Hopefully the message is plain enough regardless. This is still Cheliax.
(It's not actually possible for Asmodia to have finished reading all her transcripts and sorted everything out this neatly, in the amount of time she had to work since ceasing to be a dragon. But so long as nobody notices this and complains, including Asmodia herself, it will hopefully be okay? There's a lot of stuff in Golarion like that, and one more hardly makes a difference at this point.)
Carissa noticed, but she doesn't really know how long it takes to do that kind of project, if you're very wise and very, very, very obsessive. "Good, Asmodia. Let's take a few hours to think about good excuses for the things in red. What do you think about asking for some Control Weather so it's rainy the next couple evenings, interfering with efforts to track moon phases."
"Prior probability in this season for a couple of rainy days... ten percent? But I think we can legitimately expect Keltham not to think that the Conspiracy world more narrowly predicts us hiding the sky from him... Unless he's already noticed a time anomaly, in which case he thinks about trying to track the moon and then notices that it just happens to be rainy while the moon should be visible."
"I concur with the plan, though. I think it's better than leaving our universe's moon out where Keltham can just see it."
"I express dissent, that creates a consistent anomaly we have to maintain by using more Control Weathers, and has potential implications about - what weather our crops look heritage-selected to resist, when the planting and harvesting seasons are, which lands are fertile for farms -"
"We don't need to decide that part right away if Keltham doesn't ask right away. Requisition me the weather records for Ostenso, to see if there's such a thing as just having a stretch of a couple of weeks with more rain and clouds than usual? And how rare that is? I think that's a thing in reality, my memories say it is, but I don't trust anything that doesn't have numbers attached for this."
"I'll ask for them. I don't want to commit on the rain unless Keltham asks but if he's suspicious he will ask, possibly ask a bunch of different people and be suspicious if our answers aren't distributed normally - you know, I'm going to ask everyone right now what percentage of days this time of year have rain, to get a sense of the distribution, and then we can decide if we want to fake it or not and if so we'll have a real distribution to adjust from."
"And then that god is just inside another Conspiracy too. Though, at that level, you'd have to be pretty silly not to suspect there was something outside you, after watching us down here building our own hastily constructed universe to contain Keltham, and knowing you were making a universe containing us."
"....I'm going to spend this evening trying to figure out if you can use the statistics from the distribution of traits like height or intelligence to characterize the spread of student guesses of the answers to true questions and come up with a process that generates alter Cheliax answers from that. You can help, if you'd like. I'll leave the worrying about bigger gods until I am a bigger god."
"Typical mortal attitude, leaving everything to the gods. Keltham's probably never giving a thought to how much work he's making for us..."
"Well, except actually Keltham is thinking about us. And whenever he does, he deliberately tries to make our lives as difficult as possible. And Keltham knows more math than we do."
"I guess that's why I didn't get a comforting feeling that someone out there understood everything I was going through, which, you know, seems like it would have gone along with the rest. Because I've legitimately got it worse."
"And sure, I'll come along and help."
Keltham arises. It's another beautiful day in Cheliax... actually a cloudy and slightly rainy day, apparently, but, same essential principle! Who says that slight rain can't be beautiful? Keltham was probably not going to get to go outside much anyways!
He prays for spells, particularly those potentially apt for a date with Yaisa.
He meets everyone for breakfast.
Keltham proposes at breakfast that a very few people should be trying anything Keeperlike. Like Pilar and Asmodia, say. Keltham would honestly prefer not Carissa, if she's okay with waiting to see what happens to the other two first, but he's not making that an order because of the 'faith' thing and because there's just a whole lot of stuff here he doesn't understand. He would rather not have to face Cheliax and explain why everybody in his first class of students is now catatonic, if it turns out that suddenly going into a coma is just a thing that happens if people try to undergo Keeper training without any actual Keeper supervision.
"I'm fine with not being in the first batch of people who finds out what happens if you try to be a Keeper without any of the societal guardrails dath ilan has. If you all become Keepers and it's great and Keltham still doesn't want me to I am going to expect some serious compensation but I don't expect I'll decide to do it, in the next couple years at least."
Asmodia would be hesitant about giving this talk when the actual insights happened 3 days ago instead of 1 day ago, except that she has wisely foreseen this coming and refreshed the thoughts in her mind already.
Asmodia speaks then, to Pilar and Meritxell with Keltham observing, upon Keltham's seven problems; the remaining five, since she already spoke of #1 and #2.
#3, no empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof. The surface mathematical truth of this is that to shift probabilities from theory1 to theory2 you must encounter evidence with P(evidence ◁ theory2) > P(evidence ◁ theory1); but then if the evidence is not seen, one necessarily has P(~evidence ◁ theory2) < P(~evidence ◁ theory1); and the test by which theory2 hoped to advance itself at the expense of theory1, if it's right, instead becomes its downfall at theory1's hands, if it's wrong.
And the deeper meaning of this is how human minds are constantly constantly trying to pretend at imbalanced games, where they can win too much with too little risk. Perhaps P(evidence ◁ theory1) is higher than theory2's advocates would like to think. Keltham exhibited to them, certainly deliberately, some of those possible fallacies, when he claimed that only the Conspiracy could possibly predict that Ione and Carissa and Pilar would all go off together; there was an Ordinary explanation as well, and if anything a stronger one, because there was an Ordinary fact about those three having been absent from the general group (along with Asmodia, who was however known to have a reason to be busy), whereas explanations based in Conspiracy don't single out those three to quite the same degree - though it is of course true that in some Conspiracy worlds, those three also need to go off and copy Invisibility, so maybe you can't really say the Conspiracy assigns much less probability - though to Asmodia it does seem like copying spells is more of an ordinary thing and in the Conspiracy world everybody already has all the spells they need assigned to them? Unless the Conspiracy is faking that. You could always have the Conspiracy trying to do on purpose what they think the Ordinary world would do -
(Keltham interrupts to say that you can go down that thing-a-conversation-goes-down forever, and Asmodia should return to topic, exactly as realAsmodia predicted he would do after alterAsmodia started saying all that. She keeps her smile strictly inside.)
Or more simply, people can be broken in the way where they try to just update off the positive evidence that would prove theory2, if it appears, and mysteriously forget to check their mental books, if instead the negated ~evidence is seen or unseen. If those three had failed to disappear at lunch, which Keltham had at one point claimed the Conspiracy assigned 100% probability to expecting, would a non-dath-ilani remember to update against the Conspiracy?
Or people just make up the probabilities afterwards, or in hindsight - not so much to have both evidence and ~evidence prove theory2, as to have evidence prove theory2 more than it should, and ~evidence disprove theory2 less.
And if you don't make up any numbers at all, if you don't even know the Law of it, then how would you ever notice or realize you were doing anything wrong?
Such is all Golarion, seen with the eyes of a dath ilani. They are not only insane, but cheating. But in this they can at best deceive themselves, and others, if none are dath ilani; for if you put numbers on it all, it would be plain as day to the Probability-Sight -
"Not actually true, or a lot of this would be a lot simpler; there's versions of the mistake that look coherent. When I 'trolled' you yesterday, I made up probabilities such that, if you predicted my trolling, which I mostly expected, that would appear to provide a big update in favor of you being a time-traveler, and then if you didn't predict my prediction, which I slightly expected you not to do, that would appear to provide a big update in favor of Conspiracy. Those numbers weren't honest but they were coherent, and you couldn't spot the error just from looking at the numbers themselves."
"It's also possible to overemphasize the degree to which all of this is, like, regulations that people make up to prevent each other from cheating. Math is simpler than people. This math is not about people. Sometimes, people are about this math. Sometimes, people try to cheat in a way that violates this math. But this math is not about preventing cheating. People who never felt any impulse to cheat would use the same math."
"I also notice that people are starting to use 'dath ilani' to mean 'person using Law' or 'person using Law correctly', which is probably not a good loanword to add to Taldane? The term actually just means the people from the particular planet of dath ilan, while the whole point of the Law is that it's much more universal than that? Not to mention that a lot of us, and I don't just mean those of us who are five years old either, have been known to wield the Law incorrectly. Keepers aren't perfect at it either. We say 'ideal-agent' - maybe a Taldane translation would be perfect-simplified-person? - when we want to talk about a hypothetical mind that is stipulated to be using Law correctly. Kids in Civilization don't grow up hearing that dath ilani do this, dath ilani do that; they're told what ideal-agents do, or how well Nemamel did, or how high you've got to score to be in the upper nineteen-twentieths of adults."
"I'd like to have a word that means 'person who knows the Law at all and tries to practice it the way dath ilani do'. Maybe you don't need that word in dath ilan, just like, in a world where everyone was a Keeper, you wouldn't need a word that meant 'Keeper', just the name for people in that world. Here we need a word for a person who can do what a dath ilani does."
"There's definitely words for people who are old enough to pass competence tests, but I don't think you want to import that into Taldane as something you'd use to contrast Project Lawful candidates to the general population, it has Questionable Implications..."
"Yeah, we have words for being good at Law and words for being bad at Law, words for being a Keeper and words for hypothetical perfect entities, but nothing's really coming to mind as a word that means 'as good as a dath ilani adult rather than a Golarion adult at Law'. I'll consider it and see if there's an obvious cognate for you to import."
"Doesn't actually make any sense in terms of the underlying Baseline, that's pretty close to if you ended up in another world and the people there started saying they wanted to be Larions, but I can't really stop anyone if they want to use the word that way. I suppose I could consider myself challenged to say what's better."
"Just keep in mind, nobody from dath ilan ever gets told that they ought to be an ilani. If you want to be an ilani, go try to be the things that dath ilani try to be, instead of trying to become an ilani. Imagine you got to another world where they were just finding out about magic, and everybody was like, instead of, I want to get better at wizardry, I want to be as good as Whatshername with INT 26, they were all like, 'I will study hard and someday know as much about magic as the average Golarion person who didn't specialize in that!' If you see what I'm gesturing at here."
"But, back to topic. Asmodia?"
She carries on through #4 and #5.
And then sets forth the Law in #6, that it is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything:
P(h1 ◁ e) * P(e) + P(h1 ◁ ~e) * P(~e) = P(h1 & e) + P(h1 & ~e) = P(h1).
For every expectation of evidence, there is an equal and opposite expectation of counterevidence. This is the more precise principle above the injunction of #3, against cheating. It tells you a very exact balance that must hold within yourself, and if it is not there, you are cheating. You cannot expect to be persuaded, on net, in a direction.
If you suspect that in the Conspiracy world Pilar didn't really copy Invisibility off Sevar... not a great example, the Conspiracy probably thought of that? But you could check her spellbook and think, if there's no Invisibility, that's a huge update towards Conspiracy. But then, if there is an Invisibility spell, that must be a huge update towards Ordinary. Or alternatively, if you try to say that it's only a small update towards Ordinary, you must think there's only a small chance of seeing no Invisibility and making the large update, to counterbalance the large chance of seeing Invisibility and making the small update.
Any time you go eagerly looking for something you can observe, expecting it to convince you of something, you must necessarily be doing something incoherent and wrong. Which, of course, people from Golarion have been running around expecting all the time. Asmodia's pretty sure she's supposed to leave this part out of the non-Keeper lecture -
...okay then.
Including if she points out that any time you previously went into some sort of question, expecting yourself to see something that super persuaded you about theory1 being true, and then, you ended up super persuaded of theory1, you were clearly being incoherent going in, so probably whatever you ended up persuaded about was wrong?
...yes?
Though Keltham would not say that the conclusion you reached is probably wrong? Maybe you expected to end up persuaded that the Sun would still be lit the next day, that doesn't mean the Sun goes out? The saying out of dath ilan is 'reversed stupidity is not intelligence': to reliably be wrong about yes-or-no questions 99% of the time, you'd need sufficiently good evidence and well-processed information that you could be right 99% of the time just by flipping the answers.
So if you look back and notice you were persuaded of something by garbage reasoning, you just undo the update from that. You don't conclude that you now have positive knowledge pointing strongly in the opposite direction.
(Asmodia feels a sudden nervous worry that the average dath ilani, in terms of what sort of mental caution they aspire to, and how hard they are on themselves about it, may in fact be pretty well into and maybe past what she and her fellow Golarionites were visualizing when Keltham kept talking about 'Keepers'.)
...Asmodia informs Keltham that she's making a judgment call that her fellow Golarionites not trying to be Keepers, should maybe not be told about that stuff for another few days until they get a chance to take in the base principles of #6.
"You can expect to end up persuaded of the truth, right, while not knowing what it is, like you can do a test thinking 'this test will reveal'" Asmodeus's will "the truth' and that's not being incoherent?" asks Meritxell, who has been mostly quiet as she tries to absorb this. Abrogail's Chosen can't be any worse than Nethys's or Cayden Cailean's.
"Correct. You can calculate that, in fact, unless I'm missing something -"
Asmodia scribbles on the wall a bit. Let's say that you're not sure whether somebody is a cleric or a wizard, clerics wear red-with-black-and-gold-trim with 90% probability and anything else with 10% probability, wizards wear red-with-black-and-gold-trim with 20% probability and anything else with 80% probability, and somebody starts out five times as likely to be 'at least a first-circle wizard' than 'at least a first-circle cleric' which sounds vaguely right to Asmodia.
Then, supposing the 1/6 case where somebody is a cleric, after you observe what they're wearing, you expect with 90% probability to conclude that they're 1/5 * 9/2 = 9/10 = 0.9 times as likely to be a cleric as a wizard, and with 10% probability to conclude that they're 1/5 * 1/8 = 1/40 = 0.025 times as likely to be a cleric as a wizard.
Supposing the 5/6 case where somebody is a wizard, you expect with 80% probability that you conclude that they're 40 times as likely to be a wizard as a cleric, and with 20% probability that you conclude they're 0.9 times as likely to be a cleric as a wizard.
So if you close your eyes and don't look at their clothes, you think that you've got a 5/6 chance of losing... about a quarter of a factor of two, and a 1/6 chance of losing... about two and a half factors of two, so on average you lose... a tad more than half a factor of two? Three-fifths of a two?
And if you do look... uh... it's basically going to work out to, she's approximating here, 1/6 of one factor of two, plus 1/60 of five and a half factors of two so maybe a tenth of a factor of two, plus 5/6ths of 20% of one factor of two so 1/6 of a factor of two, plus 5/6ths of 80% of basically not any factors of two, which all works out to 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/10 or 1/3 + 1/10 so about 43% of a two. Roughly. But less than half of a two.
There's obviously going to be some sort of theorem saying that you always do better by seeing more stuff, in fact, this is so obvious that Asmodia doesn't really want to slow down and figure out how to prove it -
"Not exactly. The theorem says that you can't coherently expect to do worse on average by making more observations. You never expect to lose more factors of two in total expectation, or on average. You might get unlucky and lose some in a particular case."
"And if you're wrong about what the evidence means, if you're wrong about the factors P(evidence ◁ hypothesis), you can see what's really there and update away from reality as a result, because you didn't correctly model the entanglement between evidence and reality."
"You just can't coherently expect that to happen to you. Any time you're like, 'oh no, I should not look there, that will probably lead me further away from the truth', you are doing something very strange and wrong, and in particular, you actually believe one thing, but believe you believe another. Like, you actually know, on some level or in some part of you, that really clerics wear red and wizards don't. But you think you believe, maybe because you remember reading it in a book, that wizards wear red and clerics don't, and you expect about yourself that if you check their clothing you'll do a calculation based on what you read in the book. So one slice through you, the part that really knows how things work, expects the verbal-calculations part of you to arrive at the wrong answer."
"What you do in this case obviously is say 'wait what?' and figure out what you actually expect, reconcile that whole bizarre thing where you actually believe one thing, but believe you believe another. And then go look. There's a whole separate skill and art form about that, which I'll maybe get to in a few days if nothing slows me down?"
"For somebody who believed about herself that she didn't want to try to be a Keeper, you sure are trying to Keep things."
"But fine, I can probably find material a few days out that doesn't require people to distinguish meta-levels of self-modeling or access the subjective difference between endorsement and anticipation."
"I mean, in practice, what you're doing wrong is that you shouldn't talk to her - but - um. I'm not sure how to put this. Being a dath ilani - I mean an ilani - maybe I should just say, the closer you come to a Keeper, or an ideal-agent - the better you are at Law, the more that somebody with high Splendour can't convince you of which province the assassin came from, any more than they can convince you of, um, 1 + 2 = 5. Or the more math you know, the harder it is to convince you of that."
"Back in Ostenso you'd have had an easier time convincing me that 1 + 2 = 5 in some other plane of existence, because I wouldn't know anything about the Law of Validity or what it really means that 1 + 2 = 3. I'd have read that book arguing that the assassin of the Prefect of Tandak came on a ship from Whitemarch, and maybe been suspicious but not really have been able to say what was wrong. So somebody with high Splendour could've convinced me of that, and now they couldn't. Or at least it'd take a higher Splendour."
"I should also note that to whatever extent an augmented Splendour of 30 does not actually act as irresistible direct mind control and you get any chance to think about things, the obvious reconciliation is to try to decide in advance, 'How incredibly persuasive of an argument should I expect to hear from somebody with Splendour 30, if they are trying to convince me of a true thing, compared to how likely I am to hear that level of persuasiveness if they're trying to convince me of a false thing?' And then if you really expect that your predictions there are correct, and not just way underestimating how persuasive they'll sound for false things - and you think you'll actually get the chance to implement that rule, instead of them just effectively mind-controlling you - then you could try to update off that conversation."
"I mean, in practice, to first order, the answer is just not to talk to them if you think they're liable to deploy irresistible Splendour on convincing you of false things. To second order, if you've got to talk to them anyways, go find a Lawful entity with Splendour 30 and pay them to spend a few days arguing true and false things to you until you're correctly calibrated on what it sounds like to hear a true versus false argument at Splendour 30, and if it turns out you can't learn that, go back to the first-order nope."
" - Nocticula is an extremely powerful not-quite-a-god entity in the Abyss and both has absurdly high Splendour and is the kind of person who'd use it to talk people into false things because she'd think it was funny. I really can't think how it'd come up. Maybe she'll object when we close the Worldwound?"
One of the candidate hires that Cheliax is supposed to send him, being Nocticula in disguise, is not very much more improbable than other things that have happened to him recently.
But, okay, there's been a reassuringly low hit rate when he tries to guess that sort of thing specifically and in advance.
"Fair enough. Probably nothing will happen there, so long as there are not in fact and in reality any 'tropes' lurking about."
"That's a legitimately fascinating question in trope mechanics. Suppose that the basic mechanism of the tropes is that something else looks over universes that would exist anyways, and drops Keltham in a world where, given the way Keltham predictably acts, things that resemble trope-patterns will happen around him. It seems incredibly likely that this happened at least with my being dropped on the Worldwound someplace I'd predictably run out of the cold into a building where Carissa would be the first person I found who could talk to me. It happened at least with my dropping into a universe with masochists in it, and one where my knowledge would be incredibly valuable, falling in the right margin between being obsolete and being too advanced for anyone there to understand. The question is whether universe selection happened with anything else than very basic and initial things like that."
"It could be, for example, that the forces that selected my landing universe were also looking around for a world where Pilar delivers snacks - that they looked over a world with a Carissa with no Pilar and were like, not good enough, needs more Pilar, next universe please. Or it could be that those forces dropped me wherever with a Carissa, but it very naturally happens, without that needing to be further specified, that if you get a weird thing like me, some nearby gods look around and one of those gods is Cayden Cailean and Cayden's like 'well this project needs snacks' and then that happens."
"If there's a lot of tropes, a lot of selection, running rampant about - or if the tropes are things that can continue to steer actively - though active steering is very much not what the answer would be in a dath ilani story - then we get into the realm of questions about, if Meritxell talks about Nocticula, does that imply Nocticula is more likely to show up? Can Meritxell make Nocticula show up? Does it only apply from Keltham's perspective, or also Carissa's, or even Gregoria's?"
"It could be that the tropes operate primarily on whether Nocticula shows up at all, and then have a secondary effect of Meritxell happening to mention her. Meritxell happening to mention Nocticula, you might think, is then not something that makes Nocticula show up; rather, because Nocticula is going to show up, Meritxell happens to mention her."
"But even in this case, it doesn't mean Meritxell can't affect what happens. Maybe if Meritxell and every other researcher on the project and all the Security are like, nope, we're not mentioning anybody like that to Keltham, in case the tropes are real, the tropes are like, 'Can we drop Nocticula on this story in a foreshadowed way? No, because nobody's going to mention Nocticula', and the tropes give up and we don't have to deal with an incredibly persuasive demon lord."
"Except now we have a new question - is there just one Keltham that gets dropped on a single Golarion, or a fixed quantity of Kelthams, or does every Golarion that matches Keltham to the satisfaction of the tropes get one? Because in the latter case, by being the sort of person who looks at this situation and has everybody get together to refuse to mention Nocticula, what you're doing is reducing the number of Golarions that get a Keltham at all, and if you think I'm net positive for Golarions, you super don't want to do that."
"In calculating this, obviously, you're not supposed to say anything like, 'But we obviously already have a Keltham, he's right here, and if we refuse to mention future entities like Nocticula, he'll still be here, it's too late for the tropes to take him back', because your decision exists in two places at once and has two synchronized effects. The first place is here and now. The second place is in a prediction about this world that the tropes made before dropping me here. A prediction where the tropes asked, 'Well, what will people like Meritxell decide, when they think they've already got a Keltham who the tropes can't take back anymore?' and if the tropes predict you won't mention any future demon lords and will make it impossible for required events to happen in a duly foreshadowed fashion, you don't get a Keltham. If you're the sort of person who thinks that the tropes can't take back a Keltham you already have, you don't get one."
"All this is the shard of Law after Utility and before Coordination, what we'd call the theory of logical decisions, meaning, decisions that are about logical facts and identified with logical facts and which we evaluate in terms of their logical consequences."
"But pending knowing a lot of other stuff, I'd say that, even if tropes are everywhere, you shouldn't avoid mentioning things like Nocticula... uh, unless demon lords actually directly notice when you talk about them, which, in retrospect, I should have checked before going into this whole long lecture here."
"And I'm mostly at tropes not being that ubiquitous and not running foreshadowing in that particular way, after there was no conflict with the queen, Carissa made her afterlife arrangements just fine, and wasn't a hidden cleric, etcetera. And in that case you again shouldn't refrain from telling me about demon lords, unless, again, they directly hear when we talk about them. Do they?"
Meritxell attempts to recalculate that logic that Keltham just regurgitated with the additional information that there was....some kind of conflict with the Queen, though the details are very secret, and that Carissa has not sold her soul. The tropes do operate, but it might serve Asmodeus to accommodate them and make lots of tropey things happen, as that prediction is what caused Keltham to show up, which Asmodeus wanted...
Then she remembers alter-Meritxell would just be answering the question. "No - or not here, they might in the Abyss. If there are entities it's not safe to mention I haven't heard of them, which is what you'd expect, really."
Asmodia was gambling on that; if Keltham had explicitly said 'no' then copying it to Sevar would have required her to compartmentalize and hide that knowledge which she wouldn't know in alterCheliax, but explicitly saying 'yes', which is what Asmodia expected, reduces the number of facts like that to keep track of. And it does rather seem like something Sevar needed to know, with or without Keltham's permission.
During discussion of #7, Keltham will at least mention the general concept of trying to assess how much of an incredibly persuasive argument you expect to hear for true things versus false things from somebody with high Splendour; it's analogous to asking how many Queen coin-spins you expect somebody to be able to tell you about, if the coin is actually biased Queen or Text and was flipped twelve times. If you don't think you're calibrated on expected persuasiveness of Splendour that high, or if you expect it to work out to direct mind control, don't talk to people with that much Splendour, obviously.
Keltham's actually kind of curious about the whole super-high Splendour thing? It seems analogous to something Keltham knows about from dath ilan, and which he, like almost everybody else in dath ilan, is incredibly curious about.
One of the qualification tests for a fifth-rank Keeper is getting put into a prison, with a single guard in the person of some average dath ilani who's otherwise expecting to go into cryonic suspension shortly after. The Guard gets told not to let the Keeper out, and offered a pretty substantial financial incentive not to do that, payable to friends or relatives or favorite charities. The Guard has to solemnly affirm that they intend to resist any attempts to be persuaded to let the Keeper out, that they're not planning to throw the test. The Keeper is obviously forbidden to offer any considerations outside the test; they can't promise to pay even more money to the person's relatives or favorite charity than the incentive, if they're let out. The Guard does have to go on listening to the Keeper, talking back to them, and so on.
To be a fifth-rank Keeper you have to persuade the person to let you out before they next sleep; you can go into overtime but only by persuading the other person to go on talking to you.
To be a sixth-rank Keeper you have to do it in 2.4 hours flat with somebody who isn't average, somebody smarter than Keltham, and they have to be between 30 and 40 years old.
To become an eighth-rank Keeper, of which there are maybe three dozen in dath ilan, you have to persuade your way through a second-rank Keeper.
Obviously nobody except higher-ranked Keepers ever get to find out what goes into those conversations.
They don't lack for volunteers on the rare occasions where an opening comes up. Everybody else is so incredibly curious about what the Keepers could possibly, possibly be saying. If you're going into cryosuspension anyways, why wouldn't you find out?
Keltham is curious about whether he could do that to, say, an INT 16 person from Golarion who'd never heard of Law. But, not something he's really got the spare time to test right now.
It might take less time, though, for somebody to try incredibly high Splendour on him, to see if that works, like, at all? If that's safe and Asmodeus-approved.
Carissa is so incredibly incredibly curious now. She would literally torture several people to death for this information, if that were a way one could get it.
"That....does sound like really high Splendour. You could put in a request for someone to do that to you.....okay I mostly want you to do that because I'm incredibly curious not because I'm sure it's a good idea."
"I'm not sure at all it's a good idea," Gregoria says, "what if while they were at it they also convinced Keltham to go run off and be Chaotic Good or something. I know it's not mind control - or, uh, that the Keepers claim it's not - but that doesn't mean it's going to be distinguishable from mind control."
"Presumably the person with incredibly high Splendour also has any common sense, or so I'd hope?"
"Actually I guess that can't be taken for granted. A Keeper candidate would have enough common sense not to, in the process, persuade the Guard to not go into cryosuspension and instead become a master criminal bent on the destruction of all Civilization. Maybe somebody with high Splendour doesn't."
"In the scenario you described - locked in a room, have all day to convince the person with the key to let them out, but instead of losing money it's that they'll energy drain you to death and you know it.... I'd expect they could talk their way past a majority of random people? Not 90%, though. And mind that Golarion's random people are very stupid by dath ilani standards."
"Well, maybe you'd need a higher-powered succubus to be worth trying on me at all, but I am not actually any less curious now. I guess if at some point I wanted to spend 5000 gold pieces on it so I could be Raised afterwards if I lost? But I was mostly hoping that there'd maybe be some government Splendour-augment, who trains high-value targets in Splendour resistance, and gets supervised about that by a devil or something."
"Fifty percent let's test this before Nocticula or somebody else with overwhelming Splendour actually shows up targeting me, fifty percent can I go through the transcript afterwards more slowly and figure out which invalid steps of reasoning they were able to persuade me about, secretly one hundred percent it just sounds incredibly interesting."
"But.....if something is widely considered kind of a bad idea and might go wrong, you could just not do it!"
"Maybe you could," Meritxell says. "I bet Ione couldn't, if it was really intellectually interesting, and Carissa couldn't, if it involved whatever the fuck personality trait has her sleeping with the two most powerful people in the world -"
"To be clear, here, Gregoria, the thing I was contemplating doing was having this hypothetical government Splendour-augment take a run at me under controlled conditions. Not doing the thing with the succubus anytime soon."
"Somebody bip me at lunchtime or dinnertime to see if I can make any headway about recounting one of the short stories from a Reckless Investor Miyalsvor continuity. Uh, Miyalsvor is someone from a relatively primitive planet at dath ilan's tech level, who would otherwise have died the true death but gets rescued by aliens, because it's only legal for them to do that if you're otherwise going to die for real, and he gets out among the stars and tries to sell some dath ilani fiction there, and a defecting investment group tries to steal his copyright on the fiction, but Miyalsvor manages to turn the tables on them and take control of that entire investment group, and then he goes around from star to star investing in alien companies and having all sorts of fascinating adventures where he has to stop his investments from going wrong."
"The reason I mention this is that Reckless Investor Miyalsvor is considered one of the best examples in dath ilani fiction of an author managing to depict an incredibly persuasive character who has to do the equivalent of passing the Keeper test, talk his way out of holding cells and so on. So maybe if I can remember the dialogue closely enough, I can retell one of the short stories and have that convey something... this sounds more and more implausible the longer I talk about it, but maybe worth trying just to see how badly I fail."
"....how interesting should I be assuming that your sex life is. Like, should I be trying to beat it for interestingness by suggesting interesting applications of sex toys to the problem of 'I want to spend the entire day gone doing other things but also want you to be constantly tormented', or should I be trying to beat it for interestingness by providing a price list for scrolls of Polymorph to species with completely different genitalia."
Keltham is not particularly paying attention to Gregoria right now.
The Keltham Seduction Room - Keltham does not know it to be called this, but would not consider it suspicious if he knew - still has a lovely ocean view even with there being a light drizzle going on out there.
Keltham's not really paying much attention to the lovely ocean view either.
He has never been seduced quite this directly before.
"Resume," he says.
"I'm going to try that but then, I propose, this entire conversation gets copied to the Most High, who is either very happy about my progress, or sends it back with a lot of red underlining. I mark that I wouldn't even have suggested that if not on a low-punishment regimen."
"I'm being punished in accordance with ordinary Asmodean law and that has not, actually, been an impairing degree of punishment because that does not serve Asmodeus either. But noted, and we should speak privately so that if we are erring terribly we minimize how far the error spreads. And we can avoid actually naming any entities, while we discuss."
"Acknowledged."
"So - I think one way of looking at this - is that we can think in terms of - this normal effect that our actions have, and then a second effect that they have through - making universes exist or not exist, or maybe, making Golarions get or not get Kelthams."
"And Keltham's Law is later going to contradict me about that, because Law isn't the sort of thing that should have 'normal' effects and 'second' effects, it'll just be about effects, somehow. But we don't have that Law and I don't know how to think about it that way, yet."
"If there's - just one Keltham who has to be somewhere and just one Golarion who gets him and all the other ones don't exist - then - I think we can not talk about demon lords in order to not have them appear? Or, no, maybe that choice is like - having it retroactively be the case - that we don't exist and this world isn't here - except, it's not like we blink out of existence or anything, it's that instead there's always all along been some Asmodia and some Sevar who arrived at a decision more convenient to the tropes. And we're having this conversation after it was all decided, but that conversation has its effects before it was all decided, so we have to pretend it hasn't been decided yet, because where the conversation matters, it wasn't."
"This is so much not what the actual Law is going to sound like, I can already tell. The Law isn't going to be about, do you look at it this way, go look at it that way. There's just going to be one unifying principle that treats all the numbers the same way. But I don't know what that principle is, and instead I have to try to work with, ideas, words, and hope they end up corresponding to true Law-fragments -"
"But if I had to guess at one of those fragments - maybe it would be something like - if you imagine that the tropes are about to start over and do this all again, and we're getting to advise the Sevars and Asmodias inside the worlds the tropes are selecting from, what do we tell them to do? And then the answer to that will have to be the same as the answer to what that Law says we should actually do right now."
"If the number of Kelthams changes depending on what the Asmodias and Sevars do, I think we advise them to go ahead and talk naturally about powerful beings they don't want showing up, because in worlds where the tropes wanted to make a demon lord show up with a warning, our telling the Asmodias and Sevars never to mention them, means those worlds don't get Kelthams. I'm glad my world got a Keltham and I expect you're even more so."
"If there's one Keltham or a fixed number..."
"I can't actually figure it out. It seems like this weird twisty sideways thing. Pause to get a Cunning on me?"
"If there's a fixed number of Kelthams and the tropes allocate them to the set of Golarions that produce the most interesting stories, then trying to be interesting on purpose is just competing with other worlds like us, and we shouldn't; if there's a fixed number of Kelthams and the tropes allocate them to the set of worlds which aren't necessarily Golarion that produce the most interesting stories, then we want to be interesting because while I think we don't care if Keltham lands in this Golarion or a similar one we care a lot if he lands in Golarion or some other world that's not Golarion. ....I guess you might also specifically care that he lands at this moment in history and not a thousand years ago or a thousand years in the future, I care less about that I think..."
"Serving the tropes competes with other goals like keeping Keltham happy and building Civilization. We're better off in the world where none of the instances of us are directing effort towards trope-service than the world where all of us are going full power on it, assuming we have the same odds of winning Keltham either way."
"So remember the question of how long it takes Cheliax's current form of government to explode after introducing Keltham to it, and whether you could find Counts who weren't ilani, to replace any ilani Counts who got ideas about not responding to threats? I think that logic only works if there's no Sevars who decide to serve the tropes."
"So the question is whether there's somebody who is almost entirely like you, in whatever Golarions are out there, who would, faced with this situation, choose to - maybe the politer term would be, go along with the tropes. Somebody who'd be just as seductive of Keltham, but not somebody who - thinks exactly like that, about tropes."
Asmodia requests a moment to think for a bit after getting Cunninged. Many of her thoughts are screened; hopefully Security is not Detecting right now, since Keltham isn't around, but worst-case she's still got the Gorthoklek order.
...so the way that she thinks this actually works, is that any world has something like a Resistance or Vulnerability to the tropes, or a Difficulty Check for the tropes. The decisions Sevars make within the world can possibly make their world harder or easier for the tropes to manifest in, though, obviously, the Sevars may not know which choices of theirs really do that. They also don't know the tropes' strength, what amount of Vulnerability they need or Resistance they can overcome.
You could, at the very least, if deciding not to talk about any other demon lords, which makes things more difficult for the tropes, try offsettingly to do something nice for the tropes, to keep it all in balance? Or maybe you've got to do a lot of nice things for the tropes, or somebody has to, before they can get to your universe at all?
...Nethys, Cayden Cailean, and her own sponsor, possibly seem to think that their correct move is facilitating the tropes.
......but Asmodia can't tell if this is something those gods are creating the appearance of, and want Sevar to believe; or something they're treating as their own hidden power and special tactic, which Asmodia should not reveal.
"This is unfortunately not a case where 4 more points of Intelligence immediately causes everything to become clear," Asmodia lies. "I think we're at least not supposed to do anything that makes life more difficult for the tropes unless the Most High signs off on that."
"Because if we don't corrupt Keltham for Lord Asmodeus, he eventually figures us out. And unless an eighth-circle wizard is Detecting Thoughts on him right then, he commits suicide before we can stop him, goes to Axis, and gets raised by Osirion."
"Cheliax would still win because we'd have better Keepers than Osirion, Keepers who eventually would get further than Keltham dared to go himself. But it would be a harder battle."
Ione honestly does not think that whole "corrupt Keltham with increasingly Evil sex" plan is going to work, ever, but it sure is more fun than a lot of other tasks you can get assigned in Cheliax. She's on board until this all explodes. (As all things do in time, praise Nethys.)
Keltham is in fact on his way back!
But looks busy, and doesn't talk to anyone right away. Keltham instead strides over to Maillol's office, to check if Governance had any comments on his informal proposal for an interim contract between Cheliax and Project Lawful. Or any comments they might have on his articles of incorporation for Project Lawful. And pick up the papers for candidate employees to talk about with Carissa.
He also briefly queries Maillol about the all-in costs if Keltham wants to straight-up employ Yaisa himself, while having her retain living quarters on Project Lawful, and gives Maillol early warning on that possibility / requests that things should be configured now to allow that later. Not that their relationship advanced anything like that far, or that Yaisa has even indicated any such interest, Keltham just prefers to keep that option open for later.
Comments on Keltham's informal proposal are in this folder. Comments on Keltham's proposed corporation thingy are in this smaller folder. Job candidates in this bigger folder.
Yaisa's upkeep would be 6gp/week, yeah pretty expensive but they're remote out here. Keltham needs to make sure Yaisa's paid at least 12gp/week by him.
Yes, the possibility was kept open; Sevar already gave Maillol the tip that Keltham might ask that about somebody, at some point, and also that the person would be Yaisa. Maillol appreciates the heads-up nonetheless.
...isn't it nice to have such an attentive girlfriend! If she actually is in the Conspiracy Keltham is kind of doomed, yo.
All right, now Keltham is heading back to the dining hall.
Things he definitely has to do today (he announces): Consider new employees with Carissa, review and revise the contract stuff.
Things he hopefully still has time to do anyways (he further announces): Teach a bit more Law, Utility would be the obvious Law that comes next. Get in his daily magic practice and put on another Silent Image show at dinnertime. He'll maybe try to wing a Miyalsvor short story tomorrow; Keltham's evening tonight is spoken for.
So roughly - maybe one to two hours of Law before dinner if there's time, but first Keltham wants to do the most urgent Project stuff that needs to be done today rather than tomorrow. Everyone good on that?
Keltham reviews Cheliax's feedback on his proposed interim contract. He is conscious somewhere in the back of his mind that if he is inside a generalized fiction novel then this is the exciting Trade With Aliens section where the narration zooms in to show his thoughts in tons of detail, and all the readers are carefully evaluating the logic of everything to see if they can spot where Keltham makes his dramatic fatal error, and that the part where he's occasionally distracted by thoughts of Yaisa is presumably being played for comedy in a way that implies this is definitely a story wherein Keltham is making amusing reader-spottable errors. Thankfully Keltham's probability density is mostly not in his life being run pointwise by tropes in that detailed of a way, or on there existing an audience he can reason about that way. Carissa wasn't a hidden cleric and all that.
Cheliax does seem to be on board with Keltham's basic outline of the theory behind an interim intended-to-be-replaced contract, though? Keltham expected more pushback on this.
For something like metallurgy, which was Keltham's next intended thing to try, or road-building, the plan is to have what would otherwise be an insanely onerous patent scheme, in which any Chelish metalmakers or roadbuilders adopting new techniques need to hand over to the Project 80% of their increased profits above a 20% increase, relative to a baseline they establish under untampered truthspell; alternatively the Project can directly demand a per-volume patent fee. The rough idea is that you'd expect these entities to, themselves, end up capturing half the gains from trade, so if Keltham gets nearly all their gains, he's getting around half the gains to Cheliax. This fails if those entities compete against each other too much and can capture only a small fraction of those gains, which is why Keltham can also set a coordinated per-volume fee if he notices that happening.
Chelish Governance is strongly recommended but not mandated to reimburse them for substantial amounts of the money the manufacturers pay the Project, so the manufacturers can scale operations the way they usually would given increased profits, and perhaps to subsidize purchase of the goods, to make up for its price being set higher.
If countries outside Cheliax start using the same technology, which Keltham is not actually expecting to happen that quickly, then competition from those countries will decrease pricing power inside Cheliax and the manufacturers will show less of a profit increase and the Project will get less of that increased profit. Or to put it another way, if roadmakers outside Cheliax adopt the same technology successfully, the government is allowed to hire those outside roadmakers to make roads inside Cheliax, but they must be doing a sales volume outside Cheliax at least equivalent to their sales volume within it (to fence off some overly clever functionary getting ideas about setting up a "new roadmaker" just outside the Chelish border). The Project may at its discretion arrange things so that everybody with knowledge of key engineering details is a Project employee and bound to the project by nondisclosure arrangements.
It's intended that this overly arduous and detailed arrangement will eventually be replaced by a measurement of excess general growth in Cheliax's economy relative to economies of other countries, of which Keltham captures around half, after which all this can be tossed aside and replaced by general taxation and reimbursement mechanisms.
For stuff like improved sanitation technology or anti-pandemic measures, Keltham is getting a certain impression that you can't just ask the insurers to pay for those. So this is going to be an issue of Cheliax offering the Project a price for outcomes, basically, and Keltham deciding how that gets prioritized relative to other tech based on that price. The price should take into account that other countries may adopt the same measures, because Keltham is not actually going to slow down adoption there at all; that's something where you just broadcast the knowledge, dath ilan that taught him would have wished it so. Cheliax should offer the Project a price that reflects how much they'd want to see that happen, and can maybe negotiate with other Lawful countries about upping that price.
This part can also fold into the general economic increase business, after which Cheliax and other Lawful countries can again be invited to bid on the Project inventing further sanitation tech.
Cheliax requests that, during this initial period pending a replacement contract, while things are all happening inside Cheliax anyways, two-thirds of the Project's profits go into a Cheliax-internal investment fund, which Keltham promises to actually use for investments that he expects to boost the Chelish economy, including via spending on subprojects of the Project or Project employees and infrastructure; if Keltham at some point wants to relinquish this responsibility he can hand it back to Governance. Profits of the fund go back into the fund itself. They're willing to trust Keltham's promise that the Project won't pay out in salary more than is fair.
There's an attached note in different handwriting saying that parts of Governance aligned to old nobility will be more on board if this fund structure exists, for reasons that are probably not going to be legible to Keltham for a while - to give a not-particularly-accurate summary, they're incentivized to talk as if Keltham will take anything he's given and run to a neighboring country unfriendly to Cheliax, even though this is not true, and adding this fund structure placates them and shows their concerns are being listened-to and they're being respected about this. Keltham should not worry much about this and should leave these factions in Governance to their own delusions, so long as it doesn't actually affect the way anything goes, which they're hoping this structure accomplishes.
...right then. They're correct that this doesn't sound to him like a consistent agent equilibrium. Possibly some predictor in Governance is bidding up the price on Keltham deciding to take his early profits and go invest in some other country instead? Keltham will ponder whether this reflects some actual state of affairs they aren't telling him about. For the interim contract he'll send back to have the amount be half rather than two-thirds, but otherwise, okay, they're yielding to him enough on other stuff.
Cheliax is pretty sure it can find a million gold pieces in actual gold to redeem money owable to the Project, without that doing anything strange to their economy. If it's more than that, they want to be able to repay him in other valuables that Keltham approves, with a fallback to a guarantee to pay in standard valuables that would be available to somebody requesting to redeem currency at the Chelish central bank. At the same value in those valuables per face-value gold-piece instrument as would have existed at the time of signing this contract, if Keltham is worried about currency devaluation.
Keltham adds a note that the key date will actually be a day before Keltham's arrival, so they can't just drop all those valuations by a factor of 100 for one minute while signing the contract, but otherwise sure. Also just to be sure, can somebody give him three examples of standard redeemables and prices and available volumes as they were on that day?
Somebody in Chelish Governance has ever heard of joint-stock corporations, there's just no general market in their shares, which makes them less popular than a dath ilani might otherwise expect. Insurance basically seems not to exist at scale, which Keltham would have expected to imply a huge obstacle towards having there be limited liability for owners and officers of those joint-stock corporations. But given that Keltham regards this issue as a blocker for obvious reasons of sanity, apparently Cheliax is willing to just say that Keltham doesn't have passthrough personal liability for the Project if somebody sues the Project for more than it's worth? Apparently this is usual for Golarion, in other countries that have corporations recognized by local governments as entities? And the excess liability doesn't have to overflow to an insurer, it can just cease to exist with nobody responsible?? This seems like a huge implicit subsidy for corporations that are doing anything risky and like it would create all kinds of awful incentives??? Keltham supposes that he can just accept this implicit gift and then not do anything awful with it.
They're basically on board with the Project's corporate structure otherwise. Though there's a note from a seventh-circle priest of Asmodeus specializing in contracts, who reviewed the whole thing, that he doesn't understand why three-quarters of this stuff has the exact form that it does. The Church bids 2000 gold on Keltham explaining it, in case it's theologically important to Asmodeus's domain of contracts.
Keltham tilts his head slightly on reading this price; he can't tell if they're weirdly undervaluing his other opportunities, or just deliberately saying that this issue is not actually important but should get done eventually. He'll ask Maillol about that, maybe.
Cheliax is actually pretty unhappy about Keltham's request to have disputes arbitrated by a priest of the Lawful Neutral banking god 'Abadar'? Abadar can be kind of weird about some things. Osirion has a terrible record on women's rights, including, for example, their ability to own their own property not in a man's name. Abadar may be into banking but he's obviously not into fairness. A priest of the Lawful Neutral goddess Erecura, who lives in the center of a giant interdimensional trading city and market, would be much better for this. Subject to that part, they're fine about mutual approval of the priest, or failing that the arbitrating priest being selected by the Golarion head of Erecura's church.
Keltham writes back that he can't just take Cheliax's choice of Lawful Neutral god here for obvious reasons, but he's fine with it being Irori instead.
Finally, Governance notes for the record that they would usually hammer things out a lot more painstakingly than this, but they also want to actually get started on that tech transfer stuff. Their unusual pliability is to be understood as a request for haste.
Keltham again tilts his head and writes back that Civilization is also not in the habit of trying to design planet-affecting contracts this quickly. Cheliax obviously knows more than him about how local law, or a Lawful Neutral god's priest, is liable to interpret contracts like this. Cheliax presumably has professional lawyers they can actually trust to help. Keltham's rapid composition of these interim contracts is to be understood as a favor for Cheliax. He's a fourth-circle cleric, and not especially likely to get sick with plague in the next month if there's a one-month delay in Project work.
Sort of weirdly reminiscent of his interaction with Abrogail about a favor owed to her for her pride? It sounds like maybe that's a Chelish thing, you look out for your interests and point out your concessions and leave the other side to point out theirs. Matches some things Carissa said about sexual interactions, or for that matter Yaisa at lunchtime, how a Chelish woman wouldn't expect reciprocation owed if it wasn't spelled out. As a social practice it doesn't necessarily strike Keltham as that great of an idea, but it's the sort of thing where he could see it being easier on the feelings of Kelthams in the Kelthamverse than on the feelings of dath ilani. You can still trade with aliens like that.
(Asmodia will later get a copy of this stuff. Asmodia, who would again never dare do this if not on a low-punishment regime, will go through it and add many angry notes about terms that wouldn't have actually been suggested in alterCheliax, and how she now has to make the rest of her universe look like that was a totally sensible thing for alterCheliax to say, and next time she needs to review anything like this 'brilliant' idea for a Cheliax-internal-only investment fund before anybody says that to Keltham. This isn't about avoiding dead giveaways, this is about Keltham doing reasoning of a form that only he and Asmodia understand, and Keltham will have updated off somebody's brilliant idea for cutting Cheliax's future losses here. Somebody should get flayed about this.)
The amount of Splendour needed to lie to Keltham on most topics? Like, twelve. The amount of Splendour needed to get Keltham to agree to a contract that's slightly unfair? Apparently thirty or something. That's not quite true; there are bits he didn't think to question. But he's good at this, and instinctively so, and Hell is supposed to be incredibly clever when it comes to these things and it's sort of concerning how the servants of the god whose domain is tricky contracts are mostly playing even with a random dath ilani teenager and that's despite them having played fast and loose with the alter-Cheliax rules.
No, not concerning, it's great news; it is part of why her value in Dis is so high. Hell will get better at this, and serve Asmodeus better.
Project management has a dozen candidate files for Keltham, all of them reasonably promising, prescreened for meeting security clearances. Five of them are boys; Carissa ended up deciding on enough boys that it was only bleeding a bit of evidence towards their having disproportionately done a search for girls, but few enough that if Keltham rejects them all he'll still have lots of options and it won't take up much of his time. The ones that looked superficially the most promising to Project management are on top which is intended to save him time but he can go in some other order if he'd rather.
Keltham quizzically observes his actual level of internal surprise and maybe even slight dismay at male candidates being included, neither of which he would've expected himself to feel. Probably worth a pretty serious chunk of probability mass out of Conspiracy... should've thought to predict that in advance, but the amount of surprise he's feeling would seem to indicate that he wasn't putting a lot of probability mass on male candidates being included.
Well, makes sense though, Ordinary was thinking something like 'there's an alien, we don't know his gendertrope or how well he can do research with a bunch of boys his age, also we want him to feel very welcome in Cheliax, also we want all his genes, also we may not have a lot of time here, let's send him 11 girls from a wizard academy'. And then now they're like 'well he's doing pretty okay and we ran out of great female candidates so send him some males'. Conspiracy, you would think more on priors, would have some Dark Plan that looked something like 'lull Keltham with a harem' and then not want to modify that plan based on how things went on Project Lawful so far. Factor of 2? Factor of 3? Call it 2.5 maybe. And don't neglect to note that remaining probability mass in Conspiracy is narrowing more towards 'the Conspiracy is improvising and modifying their plans as they go'.
Moving on from that!
Two of the male candidates and three of the female candidates look too good to pass up. One of the female candidates looks like a why-would-they-include-this case.
The remaining three men and three women seem to be in basically the same bin so far as Keltham's ability to tell who would work out. Given that Keltham has a demonstrated ability to successfully interact with Chelish girls and less such demonstrated ability to interact with any boys his age, he feels a certain impulse to take the three female candidates in this round, and let more male candidates wait pending seeing what happens with the first two?
...Is that blatant rationalization?
Possibly? He'd kind of expect to end up saturated on romantic options either way? It's just that Keltham doesn't feel like he actually has much of a basis on which to make more decisions here aside from noticing his own nervousness about what young-adult masculine gendertropes are like around here.
Keltham has arrived at his opinions; what does Carissa think about these dozen?
"There's two men who look incredibly promising and Civilization sure wouldn't exclude them on that basis. Having them sent as candidates at all implies that at least somebody in Governance doesn't consider that a blocker problem? How much of a problem is it liable to be in Cheliax?"
"In Civilization I'd have more faith in my ability to determine after the first week of candidacy whether anything grimdark was happening or not... seems like a dumb thing not to test at some point, though, the Project isn't going to stay a one-male operation forever."
"Suppose we ignore that part, what's your opinions on the twelve? I've got mine."
"Think I wouldn't want this one in the next round," taps the weakest female candidate, "and given the inconvenience of turning people down, I feel inclined not to try more candidates than I want to hire if they all work out, so that there isn't anyone I have to tell that they were good but not good enough... am I being too Evil there, in your opinion? This is kind of important and maybe I should do the Good thing and tell them to suck it up."
...he kind of does owe it? He's not that absolutely devoid of Good and everything he has to trade is given him by grace of dath ilan.
Okay, maybe the amount of internal stress that thought generated was a warning sign. There's also penalties if he feels pressured into hiring too many people; that is also a wisdom out of Civilization.
What's the next-best alternative to going with only eight candidates such that he could in principle hire all of them if all of them performed well enough? Asking for eleven candidates but warning them that there's only eight seats, they might end up stuck in Secret Project Limbo for years if not selected, warning the male candidates that they may be slightly more at risk than female candidates...
"Let's go with eight, the two most promising men and all women except the unpromising one. Warn everyone except the top two men and top three women that they're starting from a slightly less favored position for a permanent job, if anybody doesn't want to show up given that, go to the alternate male candidates. If as expected the gendertropes mix okay, then we'll consider men and women on an even basis in future hiring rounds."
"I'd be tempted to only go with the five most promising candidates, except that I don't know if we can get more, and I also wouldn't get to check my sense of who's more or less promising. In Civilization - where expanding quickly wasn't that urgent, and people wouldn't need time-consuming Law lectures just to get up to speed on basic thinking, and you could just go on looking for more candidates, and I actually trusted at all my sense of who seems promising - the common wisdom would strongly say to only try the five really promising candidates at this stage of expansion, and beg Cheliax to please provide more like those."
"I don't know whether to expect Cheliax could find more like these if you told them to or not. The age range and Intelligence scores loosely suggest to me they looked at every known intelligent person who is hireable for something like this and there's not a much deeper pool to keep searching."
That's a frankly terrifying thought about a country of twenty million people. He might have to expand his hiring search outside Cheliax sooner than any person would have considered sane from a Security standpoint.
"All right, you know, if this is basically the best hiring pool we're ever going to get, let's go with trying all eleven except the bottom woman, and if all eleven seem to be working out great I'll suck up the rapid expansion and tell Maillol I'm sorry about having failed to correctly forecast my hiring needs."
"Actually, maybe ask the woman on the bottom of the ordering if she wants to try too, despite my prior prediction being that she'll fail quickly and despite what happens to her if she fails? Maybe I'm just wrong about who's promising and somebody in Governance is right."
"Seems worth letting her take the chance if she's not costing us anything. If someone thought she was worth passing along they might've had reason that wasn't in the file. Of course, the reason might've been 'as a personal favor', that is how things sometimes work around here."
"I wasn't blaming you!"
"...I'll check with Maillol about whether anything seems suspicious, try to get a sense of how bad it would be to truthspell everyone coming in, or if I could ask Security to add a question to their usual screens about whether they fiddled the application process or if their competence is being exaggerated. If Maillol doesn't flag anything, I'll go ahead with the plan to invite all twelve but with varying degrees of warning about how doomed they might be. Sound like a plan?"
"Yeah, somebody's going to have to explain what a 'noble' is at some point, or why that would be a good thing when the Taldane word sure doesn't sound like it, but not right now. If you don't think it's a red flag, my going back to Maillol with our answer doesn't have to wait on it."
Maillol wishes he could tell Keltham that they'll get a crop of better candidates once the Project produces results, but Maillol is not sure this is true. He will not be incredibly happy if they suddenly have to hire 12 people, especially if they're all tier-1s, at current salaries, but sees the perspective from which this would also be unexpectedly good news. Assuming they work out, anyways.
Everything becomes easier in terms of funding calls, when and if the Project is earning enough revenue to pay its own costs, including the fortress and not just the researcher salaries. Maillol can't unfortunately promise that hiring becomes easier; that's probably more a matter of the Security situation surrounding the project, and also trying to have the candidates be so young and yet already outperforming.
After that, he's got the time for another hour of Law before dinner, and after a Lesser Restoration the energy too, so next up is Utility.
As a starting koan, would anybody care to offer him an example of set of preferences that seems clearly unLawful? How could you want things in a way that was bad math?
Sounds to Keltham like there's sort of two different slices through you, there, a slice that wants to... let's say, spend all your money on nice things today, which is unfortunately able to gain control of your body and send it shopping and spend money... and then a different slice through you is later able to gain control of your mouth and ask powerful wizards if they've got mind control for not doing that. Keltham doesn't know why the 'unscrupulous' modifier is being applied here, it might be illegal and even for good reasons but if that technology was available in Civilization everyone would be using it. Under Keeper supervision, obviously, but still.
That's a fair example, but also kind of complicated! How about if they keep things much simpler and more concrete, like...
(Keltham casts Prestidigitation three times to create three fragile temporary objects, a red sphere, a blue cube, a green tetrahedron.)
Can anyone say what it would be like to have unLawful preferences about these three specific and concrete objects right here, assuming your preferences don't change over time or based on what you're holding, and assuming that the same slice through yourself was in control of your actions and your mouth? Reminder, tier-2s speak first.
"That's the example I was looking for! That's an example of circular preference. If I'd pay a copper to trade red for blue, every time, and not pay to trade it back, and not say with my mouth that I wanted anything different, that's a locally coherent preference and we can't say there's anything strange about it by itself. But if I'd likewise pay a copper to trade blue for green, and to trade green for red, you could just stand around trading me the same objects and extracting all my money from me. Or even if I wasn't willing to pay a whole copper, you could stand around trading me the same objects and burning up all my time, which is as much a resource to me as money. No one of my preferences is probably-contradicting-a-Law-we'll-find-later by itself, it's only when brought together that they can't all stand simultaneously."
"So we've got the first suggestion of a Law-fragment, which says that we shouldn't have any circular preferences."
"I claim that, equivalently, to this condition, it must be possible to put everything we want into a global ordering, say by tagging them with numbers -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, and so on, and then to determine which things we want more than one another, we just compare their numbers in the ordering, and we want more whichever has the higher number. If you have wants inconsistent with being able to do that, I can take all your money from you, or at least all your time."
"Do you buy that? If you don't buy it I would, of course, like to know why you're refusing the sale."
"Mmm... no. We will say it is possible to be indifferent between two things you want. I could want a cube and a sphere equally, both labeled 3, and decline to spend my time to trade either one for the other; and then also prefer a triangular pyramid to both, labeling it 4." What kind of language lacks a word for the regular-tetrahedron... well, okay, to be fair Keltham can see how that would fail to come up a lot in everyday life.
"...I'm still relatively sure this is a trap, but can't actually see where the trap is. Your next move is to say that you have to sometimes say 'I claim' in a case that's totally true, or we'll just catch on to you. Even after you've said this, however, I'll still consider it a trap with 90% probability."
Asmodia has an overconfidence problem, but Keltham will again wait until she's actually wrong to make that point.
"We're either going to need to add some shorter words to this language or start speaking Baseline, if you're going to go around saying sentences like that."
"It was relatively subtle, in this case, and did depend on my exact wording. Suppose that I say I'm indifferent between red and blue, and indifferent between blue and green, but I prefer green to red. That can't be done with numbers, but you can't extract all my money out of me either."
"What you can do is offer to trade me red to blue for free, after having previously made me a standing offer to trade blue to green for free, and I'll turn you down because I'm indifferent about both of those trades. Then you offer to trade me red to green for a copper, and I accept. I didn't pay out all my money by a repeatable path, but I paid more than I needed to."
"You could also imagine that this reflects a situation where I like blue a bit more than red, but not enough to pay the time-energy-attention cost of taking your offer to trade the two for free, and I like green a bit more than blue, but the total gap from red to green isn't enough to pay time costs on two swaps, only time cost on one swap."
"If we say that when I'm indifferent I'll always let you walk over and switch the two items without my bothering about it, then the claim becomes fully true and you can pump infinite money or time out of me if my preferences don't form a - can't be ordered the way I talked about."
"Yes."
"It's complicated. You're unlikely to screw up whether you'd prefer eating an apple to being stabbed with a knife -"
"Er, bad example. Good example in dath ilan, sadly enough. Bad example here, happy happy joy joy. I guess the classic 'cake or death' example in decision theory is also less clear, what with the local afterlives."
"We can, however, at least say that Meritxell is unlikely to get confused about whether she prefers eating an apple, or being stabbed."
"As soon as things get complicated, obscured, hidden behind layers of abstraction, presented in different ways at different times, mortals start doing less well than that. And if - people who run experiments on people to find out how they work - start trying to configure things in ways that will trip you up, it doesn't take much effort."
"I'm not sure even a Keeper could argue anyone into preferring infinite torture over eternal happiness, but I'm not actually sure they can't, either."
"It's hard, in Golarion, to make certain points, when you're an alien. I mean I'm sure there'd be equally straightforward points I could make locally, I just don't know what they are."
"What I ought to do, at this point, is demonstrate to you one of the standard ways to confuse an unprepared subject. But it would take a very reliable example, with only 8 subjects now to test it on, which I'd have to divide into three groups. And more importantly, I don't know the things about Golarion I'd need to know, to construct that example... maybe Carissa can tell me how to construct it, actually? Though it'd invalidate the demonstration for her. Hold on."
Message to Carissa: I'm looking for something that has both a quantity and a quality. And then something else which just has a comparable quality, but no comparable quantity, and is otherwise as similar as possible. It's got to be something which, apart from quality considerations, would reliably make somebody think that it was eh probably about equal value. What I'm going to do is offer three different groups choices between pairs of the low-quality high-quantity item, the medium-quality nonquantitative item, and the high-quality low-quantity item, and people tend to think that quantity matters more than quality but only when they can compare quantities directly, and otherwise the quality becomes salient, so the three groups' preferences will go in a circle.
Keltham divides the remaining 7 students into groups of 3, 3, and 1, and then hands out three slips of paper containing pairwise comparisons to these three groups respectively:
1. Would you rather have an Osirian book describing 30 rare magic items, or an Absalom book on principles of spell design?
2. Would you rather have a Nexian book describing 10 rare magic items, or an Absalom book on principles of spell design?
3. Would you rather have a Nexian book describing 10 rare magic items, or an Osirian book describing 30 rare magic items?
Oh, and considering you got more warning than usual, this time, please just put down the actual preference that comes to you, and don't overthink it? Sure, you might be able to evade the trap if you thought hard and maybe didn't put down what you would've naturally wanted if you weren't trying to evade some unknown trap, but the point in this case is just to show the basic phenomenon. Maybe. When Civilization does this they've usually tried out a dozen variants first to find one that works.
Anyways, go try it!
"Not quite the illustrative results I was hoping for, but that's what happens when you run really tiny experimental groups, and don't do any pilot samples to pretest your theories about how people will actually react."
"The underlying theory, how it was supposed to work here, is that if you see the Osirian book of 30 items side-by-side with the Nexian book of 10 items, that makes the quantity of items salient, it makes the quantity mean something. If you don't pick a very large quality difference, in a case like that, people usually go for the higher quantity."
"If on the other hand, I compare a Nexian book about 10 magic items, to an Absalom book of spell design, what does the number 10 really mean there? It's not more or less than any obvious numbers about the spell design book. So what you see instead is Nexian and Absalom, where Nex has a better magical reputation than Absalom, apparently, obviously I'm just going off Carissa here."
"Similarly if I compare the Osirian book of 30 items to the Absalom spell design book, the number 30 doesn't have some other number to compare to, so everybody goes for Absalom because they have a better magical reputation than Osirion... was what was supposed to happen, but didn't, either because we didn't run any pilot studies to see what usually worked on people, or because our groups were so tiny that randomness dominated."
"Buuut you at least got to see that the Osirian book looked a little less attractive, next to the Absalom spell design book, than the Nexian book looked next to the Absalom spell design book, even though if you put the Osirian and Nexian books side-by-side that one subject went for the Osirian one with more items."
"If I could run more probes like this, I could probably find a slightly different version that reliably gave the result I was hoping for if you run it on three groups of 20 students, say, who hadn't been warned of what the test was about."
"This particular form shouldn't work on me, if the decision is important enough to be worth thinking about for more than a few seconds. Possibly on an old-enough devil it wouldn't work even if the issue was trivial, say, and probably that's true about higher Keepers though I don't know at what rank the immunity would start."
"At higher levels of messing with people like this, there's - well, mostly, the techniques are secret, I expect, but it's known that one of them uses... what would you have here that's an equivalent phenomenon. You'd have visual afterimages, at least, I expect? If you look at a bright light, especially if it was dark before then, and then look away, you can see a smear of light where the - nerves that detect light, all fired, and used up some of their energy, and got tired, and now you can see something like darker-glowing spots in your vision where the brightness was."
"So if you're a sufficiently high-ranked Keeper, you know about how to manipulate people's thoughts based on getting them to activate particular brain areas harder or more intensely and then you say something else that routes through the same brain area and it does a weird thing based on some of the nerves being tired, or other nerves around them adjusting to high activity. We're allowed to know this is the general outline of how the technique can work, because it's incredibly hard to engineer, you can't reinvent it just by knowing how it works and reading non-secret neuroscience."
"There are cautionary videos that everybody in Civilization gets to see wherein a Keeper talks to an unsuspecting subject, you can't hear or see what the Keeper is saying, but you can hear the person they're talking to, and the person they're talking to starts to say occasionally more and more ridiculous things and finally agrees to sell the Keeper all the clothes they're wearing for the equivalent of a copper piece."
"We get to see those videos so that we have some idea of what it would look like if a conspiracy successfully hid itself from Governance while developing advanced talk-control techniques outside of the Keeper system, and then tried to take over the world. Which, I mean, to be clear, there are presumably other precautions in place to prevent. But one of those precautions is, like, warning people about what that could look like? This is a sort of thing we rehearse during the Annual Alien Invasion Rehearsal Festival, it's not literally just aliens, the theme varies by the year."
"Disaster preparedness holiday."
"In this case, it'd be something like, one in ten thousand people, probably relatively smarter ones than myself, get told that they're part of the evil conspiracy to take over the world. Where it's realistically improbable that the conspiracy got up to 100,000 people and nobody noticed, but you want to test yourself against problems more difficult than the ones you really expect to face."
"Then those people have mind-control powers, meaning that, if they end up talking to you for five minutes, they get to hand you a card saying you've now been mind-controlled and you should go off and get other people to talk to them, or try to sabotage the company you work for, or cut a communications line, or kill potential leaders for the resistance in their sleep. And then all the key infrastructure people have to make sure their organization goes on working when a bunch of people have been tagged dead and maybe somebody got turned into a saboteur. Other people need to check houses for people who got killed and make sure they get into the deep cold, obviously not for real, just rehearsing that. That sort of thing."
"Civilization doesn't have any serious enemies that we know about. That doesn't mean Civilization wants to let itself get weak. If Nidal opens a gate into our dimension and tries to take over the world using Alter Self and Suggestion spells, we've gamed that out in advance."
"And they run drills on that more often than annually, and have more eyes on each other, and probably something like eight thousand different precautions none of which I am allowed to know about."
"Becoming the sort of person who gets to figure out how the leadership gets defended against talk-control conspiracies is one of the classic dream jobs for little kids growing up in dath ilan, it's like going to the Moon colony. You would get to spend so much time imagining brilliant plots somebody else might try against you, and trying to figure out what simple deep robust methods you could use to prevent that, or, failing that, devastatingly brilliant counter-precautions."
"Civilization would cheat. They'd figure out exactly what mental state somebody had to be in to absorb extra magic like Carissa did during her date with Abrogail, and then some sixth-rank Keepers would go into that exact mental state on purpose because they could just do that, and very very quickly Civilization would have its own powerful wizards. Or ninth-rank Keepers would talk-control Nidal's ninth-circle wizards, who would be under the mistaken impression that their magical shielding prevented them from being mind-controlled by people who knew vastly vastly more about how their own minds worked than they did."
"Seriously, Nidal is not at all the issue here, the question is whether Civilization without local allies can take Zon-Kuthon."
"It's very unlikely they'd have to, they'd just analyze the real phenomenon underlying all that and figure out how to reproduce the same effect more simply, quickly, powerfully. But also yes. There'd be - probably at least a hundred thousand people in Civilization who'd volunteer for that, to save Civilization, or for that matter, just to save Nidal? Even in a Lawful Good civilization, you're going to throw some people as Evil and Chaotic as me. Well, if you go looking in the other direction, you're also going to find some people completely off the deep end of Lawful Goodness."
"Also keep in mind that depending on what spellsilver is, exactly, it's not improbable that somebody can make a call and get a million pounds of it delivered in three hours."
"I'm not sure you've grasped the sheer distinction of scale between one young slightly-above-average kid from Civilization getting tossed into Golarion with no prior preparation, and what would happen if actual Civilization got a two-way portal to Golarion. There might be a war with Zon-Kuthon. There would not be a war with Nidal. There would be a rescue operation on Nidal."
"Standard technique when you're interrogating yourself about something is to make up average-sounding details, any time your internal query blocks on a lack of detail. It's not like you'd be committing to buying the actual item, sight unseen."
"It would have taken me a lot longer to figure out my sexuality after getting to Golarion, if, considering questions like 'Am I okay renting Carissa to the Queen?', I had been, 'Oh, but I know so little at this point about what the Queen is like, or what will happen to Carissa', and let that stop me there. Instead I filled in all unknown details with conditions that felt relatively friendly to my sexuality, to check if there were any possible conditions I was okay with at all."
"I'll actually go ahead and tell everyone to try putting prices on both items they considered, now, and any time your brain says 'I don't know' you just fill in something plausible and keep going until it produces a price."
"One book costs upwards of half a day's wages for a very well-paid second-circle wizard. Right then. I need to check your book manufacturing technology at some point and see if the bottleneck is printing or papermaking or human labor to operate the machines or if there's some downstream distribution issue or what, because that is not a sustainable book price for a civilization that's trying to own a reasonable number of books."
"Anyways. The reasons I wouldn't expect that particular attack angle to work on me if I thought anything more careful than a pure snap decision is, second of all, that I'm explicitly aware of contrasts between easily commensurable quantities and how those can distort my cognition by calling attention to themselves. First, that I'm constantly putting a quantity on how much I want things. In Civilization I could easily have translated that quantity to unskilled-labor-hours or, closer to myself, the minutes or hours of my time that I'd spend to get something - including by working to buy it, if it was something that could be bought directly with money."
"The fact that I don't actually have a bank account full of unskilled-labor-hours, anymore, and instead own a completely unfamiliar valuable called 'gold pieces', is contributing to a constant state of disorientation in the back of my mind. I'll seem less timid and hesitant once I actually know how much everything around me costs and this core process of all of my cognition is able to actually run again."
"Your next question is why my salary of 500 gold pieces per week doesn't establish a value for my time of 71 gold pieces per day. Because that's a trivial side payment compared to the expected worth of my future share of Project income, is why, more or less. I could spend a day describing the reasons for the Project's exact contract structure to the Church of Asmodeus, which is something I've now been requested to do at some point, and earn 2000 gold that way. I'm not running off to do it because it's obvious that a one-day delay in Cheliax achieving a larger economy costs much more than 2000 gold. If at any point I found myself even considering spending a week of my time to avoid spending 500 gold pieces on something, it would be obvious that I needed a higher salary, what with, for example, all the Security wizards here also costing 500 gold a week each."
"So how much is my time actually worth in gold pieces? What are gold pieces worth to me in terms of anything else I want? I have no idea. Thankfully there's a pretrained reflex and habit in my brain that already knows how to assign quantities to anything it wants, and it can go on assigning those quantities even though they're currently meaningless to me in terms of money, and so I can go on pretending to be a functional human being."
"You just got a lot richer. It would not be terribly surprising if whatever skills you do have for figuring out how much you want things, measured in gold pieces, also spend the next several weeks going haywire. Being tossed from Ostenso wizard academy into Project Lawful is not that unlike going from dath ilan to Golarion in terms of how much financial disorientation I'd expect that to produce."
"As an interim measure, consider asking yourself how much you value things in terms of time - how much of your limited personal time per day you'd spend to get various things that you want - until money starts making sense to you again."
If at some point Keltham ends up busy on contract work again, and they don't want to just take that time off, the class might consider a collective project to probe variations on what Keltham tried, to see if they can hone some version of that - maybe not involving books about magic, it might have to be something more common - into a form that reliably produces incoherent preferences in Golarionites. Obvious locally available test subjects: the four departed Ostensos, Securities, cooks and other local support personnel.
Then they get to be like little tiny Keepers relative to the rest of Golarion, having refined for themselves a piece of knowledge that they can use to make other people's brains produce financial errors! Further exercise, come up with your own list of ethical restrictions about how this very very very mildly terrifying knowledge should be used by Project students.
He's not sure 'assignment' is translating correctly to concepts he already has? It's a way where somebody on this project with excess time that they want to convert into practice-at-this-sort-of-thing could, at their own option, choose to do that? And if so, all of the people doing that should coordinate among themselves, so that they don't trip over each other in using up their limited supply of local experimental subjects.
Anyways! In terms of Law, this whole lecture has now gotten far ahead of itself! The true Law does not assume that there is some mystical stuff called 'money' floating around, in which everything can already be valued. The Law begins from people wanting things; a notion of money comes later, beneath the Law and after the Law, not before it and above it.
Going back to where they left off on Law: this classroom has now seen, at this point, that things you want, which by an act of choice or expenditure of time you can swap or trade, need to be consistently orderable among themselves in order to avoid having time or money pumped out of you. Even indifferences - in the sense of letting other people swap things for you, not just it not being worth the effort of making a trade - must be coherent within the ordering, to avoid this.
They've seen a simple trick for getting dath ilani children or Golarion adults to violate this consistent ordering, just by way of showing that it's not a trivial requirement. (And hinting at how there must be vastly more terrifying things that high-ranking Keepers can do if not otherwise restrained by ethics, but that's not the main point.)
To take the next step beyond ordering, consider things that are divisible, fungible; things that have quantities over them, and not just unique individual identities. Let's consider apples, bananas, cherries, and suppose - temporarily - that the relative intensity of your desire for these fruits does not change depending on how many you already have. (Maybe you're planning to feed those fruits to a large hungry crowd so you actually care more about food-energy-value than a tasty meal with variety, say.) Suppose, for now, that every fruit is identical to every other fruit of that kind. Suppose also that you would, for each of these kinds of fruits, prefer to have more rather than less, everything else be equal.
It'd be pretty odd if you valued a cherry equally with a whole banana. It should take at least two cherries to be worth a banana, right? Probably more. If somebody offers to trade you a banana for two cherries, you should probably accept.
But that's not Law; there could be such a thing as a person who would rather have one cherry than two bananas.
What can we say, in this situation, about the patterns of offered trades that you will accept or reject - what property must your trading-rule have to avoid some dreadful thing happening to you, and what indeed is that misfortune?
"The constraint-system needs fewer degrees-of-freedom - one fewer than the number of goods being traded. If there's three goods you can trade, there should only be two trading ratios. Once you know apples to bananas and bananas to cherries, that gives you apples to cherries. So if you make up a separate number there that isn't derived from the first two, that's like having two different trading ratios at two different times, or different trading ratios depending on the order you trade things in. The constraint-system starts with zero degrees-of-freedom for one fruit, and then any time you add a new fruit, you add one degree-of-freedom for a trading ratio between that fruit and any other fruit already in the constraint-system."
Keltham reminds himself once again that these people are not actually six-year-olds; they have any prior mathematics education, it's just been about spellforms rather than the entire rest of Reality.
"Ah, well, in that case, I claim that your condition is exactly equivalent to saying that every fruit in the system other than cherries must have a consistent unchanging price in cherries, and we accept trades whenever the trades are favorable according to those prices, and reject them otherwise. Do you believe me?"
Because your Bluff sucks. "You seem like a very honest and nice boy who wouldn't lie to an innocent girl about that sort of thing," says alterPeranza.
"Also because any pattern of trading rules that's okay, will have some series of trades you can make, to convert one of any other fruit to some number of cherries, and that series of trades gives you the price of that fruit in cherries. And if you have the price of everything in cherries, you can figure out which trades are okay, you just compare the value in cherries to see if you're gaining cherries or losing them."
"Hmmm. That is a compelling argument - the second part, I mean, I'm not commenting on that first argument at all. But you may recall that I asked, initially, what pattern the system of trading-rules must have, to avoid some dreadful thing happening, and also I asked, what exactly is this terrible misfortune. What happens to you if the ratios aren't consistent?"
"It seems you trusted that nice boy far too much! Suppose I'll trade eleven cherries for a banana, or a banana for fourteen cherries, but when it comes to trading a banana for twelve or thirteen cherries, I neither accept nor reverse either of those offers. You can't pump infinite fruit out of me that way, even if I trade by those rules consistently, and the rules don't correspond to having any single price of a banana in cherries."
"Don't get so caught up in the metagame that you forget about the object-level math question, which is where all of the important skills to learn here are to be found. When you are encountering your own problems you will not be able to solve them by guessing a teacher's trolling patterns."
It sounds enough like a rebuke that Peranza loses the thread of alterPeranza just being in class and being good at math.
(Peranza has practice at spellcraft under pressure, answering from memory under pressure, a little doing topology under pressure. Not so much pretending to be another person thinking about Law the way Keltham does, under pressure.)
...which is not a good look for Cheliax.
"Having one less degree-of-freedom than the number of fruits, with each new fruit after the first having one degree-of-freedom for entering the constraint-system, is definitely equivalent to being able to price all the other fruits in one fruit. But that's not the same condition as 'trading rules that can't get traded down to one cherry'."
"What's missing... I think is, if somebody else offers you to trade a banana for thirteen cherries, and then to trade twelve of your cherries for a banana, you have to take them up on that. If you don't, that counts as a terrible misfortune."
"I claim that the two conditions of 'you can't be traded down' and 'you don't miss trades that take you up' is equivalent to being able to price everything in cherries. Assuming there are any cherries in the system in the first place."
"Suppose now that some 'troll' were further to say: maybe you can't trade fractions of fruit, only whole ones, because if you try to slice a banana in half, the parts exposed to the air will start rotting. And furthermore, you can't express arbitrary ratios using very large numbers of fruit, because you've only got 100 of them."
"I'll trade nine bananas for ninety-nine cherries, or trade ninety-eight cherries for nine bananas. What's my real ratio of bananas to cherries? It could be a little less than 11 cherries per banana, or a little more than 10 point 8 repeating cherries per banana, or anywhere in the infinite space between! Maybe you think you could try to pin that down by looking at the other trades I'll make with bananas, for other things that can be traded for cherries, but if anything I'd guess that the additional trading steps will just put even wider bounds on all the numbers you try to derive that way."
"So now you can't deduce any exact ratios from my trading patterns. And, why, it's not that I'm hiding those exact ratios, it's that I don't have any, just some trading rules I use. So now the two ideas aren't equivalent any more - I have a trading pattern where I don't accept strict losses and don't pass up strict gains, but I have no exact ratios between items."
"I can make up a ratio and assign it to you and you won't have any grounds on which to contradict me," says Peranza.
(...doesn't stay disintegrated under pressure, rallies and returns given a chance to catch her breath, because she is still a survivor out of the Ostenso wizard academy, and all the really pathetic students there are now laundry wizards in a tiny town somewhere paying back 'loans' that will last forever)
Pretty adversarial attitude towards mathematics. Keltham doesn't mind, he's masculine-gendertroped.
"Doesn't quite follow that I know my ratio and am hiding it. You can know an answer is wrong without knowing the right answer, and this is in general a very important fact about how to think in Law-inspired ways. Your sense that an answer is wrong often precedes your having any idea what the right answer is, and sometimes for quite a while."
"But yes, in general that's the idea I was aiming towards. If we can't have fractions of fruit or unbounded fruit, then the two equivalent conditions are 'there's at least one possible set of prices-in-cherries you could be using, based on your behaviors', and 'you don't accept trade patterns that lead to strict losses or reject patterns that lead to strict gains'. Where a strict loss is having less fruit in one place without having gained any fruit somewhere else, and a strict gain is having more of one kind of fruit without having lost any others."
"This, you might say, is how the notion of money-as-a-common-unit arises under the Law, when mortals meet and deal with each other. The world begins with farms and scythemakers," Keltham has picked up that scythes are involved in farming, "so why does it need money? Let farmers barter corn for scythes, let scythemakers eat some of the corn and barter other corn for metal, let the metalmaker barter metal for shoes - don't tell me that's not the right trade pattern, Tonia, just pretend I said something sensible, please."
"Why not just trade things you have for other things you want? Why try to price everything in the same units everywhere? Who's to say that wouldn't just cause everyone to make weird trades they wouldn't have made, would have been wiser than to make, if bartering things directly?"
"But if people are in general trading in ways that don't let you extract lots of resources from them, they will be acting as if you could price everything in corn, or everything in pounds of iron, and have their trading patterns mostly make sense in those terms. You won't be eliminating a lot of useful complexity and extra details that mattered, when instead of having all the local patterns of bartering ratios, you instead try to price everything in corn. You are not holding up a mirror to life, and cutting off the pieces of life that don't fit; everything does fit into the mirror. It's safe to do the thing that lets somebody work out instantly the ratio between shoes and scythes, without having to envision in detail how relatively useful shoes and scythes will be to them."
"That's what justifies, you might say, the approach of trying to weigh a book about rare magic items, and a book about spell design, relative to one another, by weighing both of them in some common unit, and not just comparing them to each other."
"Should that common unit be gold pieces, or minutes of our time? The minutes of our time are, from one perspective, the most natural way to think about the resources that we have; almost anything else we want, that we can try to get, is going to burn some number of minutes of our time, and maybe some other resources too, but always the minutes. As for money, you can always convert your time into that; even if your job saturates in a way that doesn't let you voluntarily work an extra hour or an extra day, you could trade your time for money elsewhere, by finding an employer who just needs an hour of work from somebody, even if that pays less well... Actually now that I'm arguing this out loud I have a sudden worrying sensation that in Golarion it's not actually going to be possible for lots of people to trade their time into money at any reasonable exchange rate."
"Anyways, in Civilization, where you can convert between time and money, the common wisdom is that you should learn to value everything in terms of money, rather than minutes of your personal time. Why? Because that way you can, without an extra mental translation step, tell other people your prices, and understand what their prices are. Time is the personal resource closest to us, but society's shared unit of wantingness is the way we interact with everything else, and so the common wisdom is that we'll all end up better off if we think in society's units."
"Of which it is said in dath ilan, 'money is the unit of caring' - with further implications such as, for example, that if you're weirdly reluctant to spend any money on something, you probably don't care about that thing very much. Though the proverb loses something because Civilization's word for society's common unit for pricing, 'unit-of-account', is one of three different Baseline words I've found so far that all translate into Taldane's word 'money'."
"In Civilization the common unit is the unskilled-labor-hour, which is, ideally, adjusted at a pace that changes smoothly over time but ends up tracking the value of an average person spending an hour of their time doing something they have no special training or talent for. Everybody has that to trade, even if almost nobody should actually trade it, and enough people need it now and then that the market exists."
"There's a debate about whether that unit is actually a good idea, because from one perspective, the value of that unit tends to predictably go up over time. As technology improves and society gets more productive, the minimum amount you have to pay anybody to work for an hour goes up, in terms of most other goods. Which is to say that for other goods, the number of unskilled-labor-hours they're worth tend down over time."
"There's an argument that this is bad, since price-setters are more eager to adjust prices upward than downward, because if you're first to adjust your prices downward before others do, you're often relinquishing some portion of gains-from-trade within implicit agreements that take time to renegotiate. So, the argument goes, we instead all ought to have a unit of account that's worth 3% less every year, because that way prices will mostly need to adjust upward, and people will want to be the first in line rather than the last in line to adjust their prices to match new realities. And that way prices will adjust more quickly and naturally than in the current arrangement where we have a Seasonal Repricing Day, four times per year, where all the stuck prices go down at the same time if somebody was dragging their feet on minor price adjustments before then."
"How this all squares up with Cheliax's 'gold pieces' concept, I have no idea."
"I suppose if I asked whether there's relatively more or less gold, compared to all the stuff being traded that isn't gold, every year, it would be very silly to expect an answer about that from a country where Governance does not know its own annual budget, and can't measure the value of all goods and services produced annually inside the country..."
"Actually no, I can ask that. Do prices over time usually go up a tad, or down a tad?"
Asmodia thinks very quickly.
(Implausibly quickly, in fact, but that's fine so long as nobody including her notices.)
...this direction whatever it is, should be the same in alterCheliax and realCheliax so far as Asmodia can currently tell; flipping the answer is more of a risk than keeping it the same.
"Well, if using gold means that all the prices tend to go up just a tad every season, instead of downward, don't be in a rush to change your use of gold as money without a lot of careful debate first. If everything else is the same, which it could very well not be, you might be doing better than Civilization in at least that one exact way."
"...though I'm not sure how you'd get that result out of mining a metal, whose value is implicitly going down a bit every year under that equilibrium, which should induce less mining of it. But, I am not expecting anyone in the classroom to know an answer to that... actually, I bet it has to do with Asmodeus's Church taking control of Cheliax, that probably brought in a moving-to-a-new-equilibrium-surge of new investments from outside the country and those were probably done in gold? In which case maybe you'd need to get away from gold-based pricing in another decade, or prices might start going down again."
"Anyways."
"I have, I fear, digressed somewhat from the proper order in which to present things in theoretically pure ways; the invention of abstract units of caring is supposed to be a relatively advanced idea under the Law, to which your hand gets forced later."
"Let's go down a different path. Suppose you've only got one of each kind of fruit that there is, but you've got, like, fifty different kinds. You can't cut any of them into pieces or they'll rot. Furthermore, each of your actions within the world can only swap one fruit for another fruit at a time. You can give somebody a fruit without getting any back, I suppose - everybody has an unbounded supply of the empty fruit - but you can't make a transaction promising anyone that you'll give them more fruit on a later round. Because thought experiments, that's why."
"I claim to you that in this world, there is no choice but to give up all hope of figuring out how many cherries a banana is worth, since all you can do is trade one whole banana for one whole cherry, and very few hungry people would trade a big fruit like a banana for a small one like a cherry."
"At least, there's no way to do it without being some kind of dirty cheater."
"But maybe somebody here is a dirty cheater, I don't know. If so, how do you cheat?"
There's a silence, but not the oh-no-heresy silence, just the silence of a hard problem.
And then the delightful clarity of the problem snapping into focus as like a different kind of problem done a few days ago -
"You trade someone - a coin flip where you'll give them a banana if it comes up heads, for a cherry whether it does or not. You'd need one of those dath ilani provable-randomness-creators to do it properly."
"A coin you can both see spinning works fine for that - you can use a random source of 0s and 1s to generate an arbitrary-precision fraction uniformly between 0 and 1."
"Let's say that Text is 0 and Queen is 1, on a spinning coin. The first time you spin it, add 1/2 to the total if it comes up Queen. The next time you spin it, add 1/4 to the total if it comes up Queen. Third time, 1/2 to the third power or 1/8."
"Suppose you spin three times and the results are Queen, Text, Queen. The current running total is 1/2 + 0/4 + 1/8 = 5/8 or 0.625, can't get any lower than that, and can never go above 6/8ths or 0.75 even if every future spin comes up Queen. So if you were trying to generate a 60/100 chance of something, you could stop at that point and declare that the event hadn't happened."
"Uh, assuming there's no magic way to control how coinspins land. If there is, you'd have an arms race between that and Detect Magic and whatever counters Detect Magic etcetera, if the coinspins were important."
"I wouldn't be surprised if my god has a spell for that which is incredibly difficult to mess with, but I don't know if it'd be fourth-circle or lower. It would be on-theme with the truthspell and the pricing spell."
"Anyways, I now pose to you this devastating question: who says that a 1/2 probability of an apple is worth exactly half as much as an apple? Maybe somebody is like, 'All this uncertainty about getting the apple makes me feel terrible; a 1/2 probability of an apple is really only worth to me a third as much as the certainty of an apple.' And so, you can't use probabilistic trades to determine people's real trading ratios."
"Who says that the probabilities of things need to combine with their values by multiplication? How simple, how naive! Perhaps there is some more clever way to do things. By what Law is it a regulation of our city, that we must do things in exactly that way, or else suffer some terrible misfortune?"
"- I mean, in this thought experiment we can't cut apples and we can't make promises. I guess you can say that we also don't like uncertainty but that'd be - you adding that - if you were perfect you just wouldn't care about uncertainty except for planning costs. Gods don't, I'm pretty sure."
" - there's the thing you said about how we could conspire against the Conspiracies in worlds that have Conspiracies, and I don't know if you literally mean there are uncountable worlds or if it's just a way of thinking, but - getting an apple in half of worlds is half as good as getting an apple -"
"There's countably infinite worlds, not uncountable ones - there's as many worlds as there are counting numbers, not as many as there are possible infinite sets of counting numbers. You can only get ratios between the reality-weight of worlds if they're countable, so only those can be real. Any time a world is divided more finely than that, only the parts that - I can't actually say this in Taldane, sorry."*
"And nice try, but we have ways to banish the 'anthropics' out of the conversation. We can bet on a mathematical fact that neither of us know and seems to have the right random properties, like whether the remainder of 1001 divided by 17 is less than 6, say, which should give us a probability pretty close to 6/17. I could truthspell myself and promise you that I hadn't secretly calculated the result in advance."
"There's no other worlds where that fact will be different. So why do I need to value that bet of an apple at 6/17ths the value of an apple?"
(*) Realityfluid can be spread out over continuous distributions, but only chunks of those distributions large enough to integrate up to finite measures have people finding themselves inside. People themselves are not so finely divisible, in regards to finding yourself to be one of them. If you tried to make a continuity of different people in order to have an uncountable population of distinct people, sufficiently close parts of that continuity that they couldn't tell themselves apart would add realityweight from the perspective of whether you find yourself to be one of them, and so again you'd find yourself as something whose realityweight sums up to a finite fraction of everything there is. This is why nobody ever finds themselves to be an entity with an actually-infinite number of introspectively-distinguishable distinct parts.
"Or you passing up a trade series to increase your chance of getting an apple from some tiny amount to almost certainty, would be the complete spec of the dreadful misfortune."
"...and what would be an example case of an arrangement like that? Suppose I'd trade a 1/2 probability of an apple for 1/4 the value of an apple, and a 1/3 probability of an apple for 1/9 the value of an apple. What dread fate must now befall me?"
"And? Just as I don't value a 1/3 chance of winning an apple at 1/3 of an apple's value, I don't value a 512-in-19683 chance of ending up paying you zero apples at around 1/38th the value of paying you zero apples. Why, I value it at around 9/10th the value of paying you zero apples with surety! As for all those other outcomes where I end up paying you one, two, or even nine apples, I value all of those put together with the remaining 1/10th of the weight that I put on things, when I weigh possibilities."
"If I haven't started out by already accepting that chances of things happening, ought to be weighted proportional to their probability, then when I look at all the things that might probably happen when you ask to buy four 1/2 chances of winning an apple from me, I don't have to value the 1/16th chance of paying you zero apples at 1/16th the value I put on that outcome."
"In other words, you're trying to convince me to accept the principle of weighting outcomes proportional to their probabilities, using an argument that only works on people who've already accepted that."
It's frustrating, she can feel that Keltham is doing something very bad and punishable, and it should be possible to Lawfully argue him out of it; but Pilar can't see the argument. Talking to the Elysians was less frustrating than this.
She does not of course feel any anger at Keltham; it is clear that the fault lies within her for being unable to refute him.
"You've at least got to value two 1/2 chances of getting one apple, the same as, a 1/4 chance of getting no apples plus a 1/2 chance of getting one apple plus a 1/4 chance of getting two apples," Pilar states. "Which means you've got to value one 1/2 chance of getting one apple the same as a 1/4 chance of getting no apples plus a 1/4 chance of getting two apples."
"Well, I accept you could mess with me if I didn't value two 1/2 chances of getting one apple, the same as 1/4 of zero plus 1/2 of one plus 1/4 of two. But where was it said that I have to value two 1/2 chances of getting an apple, twice as much as I value one 1/2 chance of getting an apple? We can stipulate that I value two apples twice as much as one apple, in cherries. That was already said, but who says that packs of chances add up the same way?"
"No, for it has not been stipulated that I care."
"Also we do tend, in Civilization, to regard that as an invalid argument generally. If we look at the statistics and find that currently wizards are having fewer children, or for that matter, masochists are having fewer children, it doesn't follow that Cheliax should heritage-optimize wizards or masochists out of existence. Maybe the thing to do instead is subsidize them so that they go on existing."
"With some tiny probability I'll make a ton of money, though, if all the gambles I take pay off their maximum amounts. Maybe I just happen to weight that tiny probability by a huge amount in my calculations, much larger than I'd weight it if I was multiplying outcome-values by probability-weights the way you think I should."
"So once again, you have not yet justified the principle of multiplying by probability, except by appealing to the principle of multiplying by probability."
"Now, if you could show that I was going to trade in a pattern that led me into strictly lower probabilities of getting an apple, or passing up strictly higher chances, that'd be another matter. I do accept the principle that I should always want more apples and a greater probability of apples, all my other resources being equal or undiminished."
...he has not forgotten what is awaiting him after dinner. Namely Yaisa. He will not be delaying dinner today.
"All right, let's wrap up. The general section of Law we are entering into is that which governs planning, paths through time, and its central principle is that of outcomes or destinations with consistent values, to which we navigate paths through time governed by the Law of Probability, and the value to us in this moment of a probable outcome is that outcome's value times the probability we place on it."
"From a more advanced perspective, the Law of Utility, or the Law of Probable Utility, is something that stands before the Law of Probability, even if the Law of Probability seems simpler. The reason to think about events and reality using chances-out-of-100, instead of scales from 1 to 12, is that the chances out of 100 are what we have to plug into our plans, and not the scale from 1 to 12."
"Or at least, that's the perspective you'd take if you weren't coming at things from the angle of 'anthropics', but this, we should not do until a whole lot later."
"Cautions that I remember getting about this: First, the same basic caution as for Probability. If you try to think about something using numbers using this portion of Law, and the conclusions that result make no sense, and you are not already very skilled in this art, throw away the numbers and start over; do not follow the numbers off a cliff. It has ever happened, in a case like that, that the conclusions were true and the flaw was in your own ability to make sense of them. But in that case, the remedy is to first improve your intuitions until you can feel how the numbers make sense, not to go rush out and follow that advice before it has made sense to you."
"Second - though this part feels intuitively incredibly obvious to me, now that I'm no longer seven years old, I don't know if it actually is obvious, it wasn't when I was seven - you cannot by any amount of cleverness, reason from the mathematics of Probable Utility, to conclusions about it being Lawful or un-Lawful to value particular things. Zon-Kuthon is Lawful Evil, he isn't making a math error by valuing endless suffering above happy people leading complicated worthwhile lives. The Law says that, for Zon-Kuthon to get what he values, Zon-Kuthon must either behave a certain way, or else end up with pointlessly flawed plans that stumble over themselves and don't lead to the endless suffering that Zon-Kuthon prefers. The Law says nothing of Zon-Kuthon's first preference from which his plans begin."
"And it was also said to me from the very beginning: For all the beauty of the Law as Law, and all the reasoning you might ever do about it as mathematics, the only reason to ever take that Law upon yourself, is if it is the correct Law of obtaining what you desire. Not, necessarily, desire in a selfish sense, for this is Civilization's teaching of which we speak. Good people desire Good ends, and this Law is their Law too."
"The meaning of the caution is rather that if you think, at some point, that this Law is telling you to do a thing, which will not lead best of all your available choices to whatever destination you seek, then most likely, vastly likely, you have made a mistake somewhere. You may be mistaken about the Law, you might be correct in calculating what the Law must say and wrong in thinking that some other way is better, you may be correct about some derivations in mathematics but be wrong about which mathematics you should be using. It is not likely the case that the Law is telling you a worse way and some other pattern is telling you a better one."
"But if - we are always also told - if some very clever person at some point demonstrated that the Law as taught in Civilization's lessons, did fail to be the best way of choosing in one part of reality so as to make another part of reality conform to our desire - then we should at once discard that old Law and seek another. That, after all, was presumably how that whole branch of mathematics was invented in the first place. In its final form, dealing with choices that are themselves mathematics, the Law of decision is a touch complicated; there must have been a time when people did not know it, and used simpler math instead. If at that time they had thought to themselves that the Law they held was the final and ultimate principle and the definition in itself, of what should be done - and not instead thought of there being an ultimate goal to find that mathematics which best describes how choices in one place operate to constrain reality in another - they would have been unable to move on."
"...sort of embarrassing, and complicated, and really blatantly wrong once you understand what Law is even supposed to look like normally, and it had a lot of terms in it you haven't learned yet."
"So I'm going to delay explaining it at least until everybody knows what the correct theory was supposed to be, to avoid misleading you. That is the only reason I am delaying explaining it. It's not at all because some part of my brain is worried that nobody in this room will want to have sex with me if you know about my early attempts at decision theory."
"Surely any sensible feminine 'gendertrope' would take for granted that if you had a choice of men to have sex with, the first element determining your choice should be how good he is at decision theory. I'm just saying this because it's obviously true, of course, and not because I'm the best decision theorist on this planet."
"Shall we all to dinner?"
Keltham will, at dinnertime, inform Yaisa that she's been quite successful in her goal of causing him to be occasionally distracted at various times during the day, and he does not want to spend all of dinner like that, and he is therefore going to go sit by Gregoria and Tonia and Peranza instead. Keltham will be seeing to Yaisa shortly.
Meritxell and Carissa are sitting right near Gregoria having a not-not-for-Keltham's-ears discussion of how you would define Cheliax's gendertropes if you were doing that, but Gregoria is pointedly not participating in that in favor of talking with Tonia about experiment design for checking whether Security/the washout girls make the Law error to do with inconsistent ordering of three preferences.
Of all the darned times not to be able to run two streams of verbal interpretation simultaneously! Keltham will try to listen to both conversations anyways while also eating. Tonia and Gregoria are hopefully going to end up on basically the right track and only require a few hints from him?
"I think that there are some differences between women mad scientists and man mad scientists, though! Like, the archetypal mad scientist woman is Areelu Vorlesh, or Nefreti Clepati, or Felandrial Morgethai, and they're going for a different vibe than, say, Manohar, or the Archmage Nex, or Tar-Baphon -"
"With very powerful magic you can separate your soul and your body - this kills you, but that's not prohibitive - and contain your soul in an object, which presumably you hide in an extremely secret and inaccessible place, making you impossible to permanently destroy; this is becoming a lich. The powerful magic is of the kind that allows for the raising of undead armies, so lichs usually have undead armies, because if you're really good at that kind of magic anyway and can hardly piss off Pharasma more than you already have, why not. The ability to raise undead armies is - the kind of power where the more you have the more you can accumulate - so people usually coordinate to put down lichs that seem to be raising particularly notable armies."
"Yaisa. This cookie is to congratulate you on having joined that select group of individuals who get advice from oracles. Your advice is that if at some point tonight you can think of something very hot that Keltham could do to you, that you would genuinely enjoy and that would move Keltham a little further away from obligate Lawful Good sexuality, you should tell Keltham honestly what you want, and offer to pay him exactly half as much money as the most that service is actually worth to you. My curse says that it can only say that this will not harm Asmodeus's interests, because if my curse told you it would advance Asmodeus's interests, you'd have to do it and that's not the way for your true feelings to reach Keltham."
(Keltham is still trying to figure out illusions of "light-emitting walls with parallax" so most of his images are just being projected onto the illusion of a giant video screen, rather than him trying to make things three-dimensional.)
Here's a rocket launch. This is how you go to space when you don't have wizards. It involves an unreasonable amount of fire. Probably nobody in Golarion has seen this amount of fire unless they were standing nearby when somebody messed up a Wish spell. Golarion conventional wisdom would say not to mess with people who can produce this amount of fire. Many wizards throughout the ages who have claimed that all problems can be solved with enough fire, since, if you still have a problem after that, you did not use 'enough fire' by the definition of 'enough', would feel incredibly pleased and vindicated to know that this philosophy apparently works for traveling to space.
Here's a space-laser launch. They're not safe for human riders though. They're used to move fuel capsules into low orbit and higher, so that the rockets can refuel and keep going past that orbit. It would be theoretically possible to reach the Fourth Planet just by burning rocket fuel to lift more rocket fuel into space, but you'd have to be crazy to actually try it that way, it's literally an exponential cost in fuel. Anyone trying to work out how much Radiance damage this instantaneous beam weapon could do from ten miles away will run out of numbers. If Cheliax owned this weapon it could conquer Nidal in fifteen minutes. It obviously hasn’t occurred to Keltham that anyone looking at this image would see a threat. This could be because Keltham is very innocent. It could also be that, from his perspective, this is obviously not what a serious weapon looks like if Civilization is building a real weapon on purpose.
This is Civilization's Chief Executive. Yes, she actually dresses like that. Nobody gets appointed Chief Executive of the bureaucracy by being the sort of person who dresses to please an audience.
These are the Legislators in session, sort of, Keltham can't necessarily remember all the faces of the current ones, and some of these are actually Legislators who lost voting support a couple of years ago. Yes the Legislators also dress like that, why would their job require them to dress less comfortably? It's not physically hazardous. Yes, she does look young, there's usually one young Legislator, typically selected from among the pool of people who are arguably the most accomplished young people in all Civilization. Lots of voters are young, and it's not an impressive display of preference aggregation and representative democracy if all the Legislators end up old.
This is Civilization's top Keeper. Yes, they all dress sort of like that, at least in public? No, nobody else in Civilization dresses like that, you would not wish to be mistaken for a Keeper if you were not one. (This top Keeper is a man who looks to be in his fifties, dressed much more like a senior cleric than any other supposedly very serious and important people shown.)
Here's a festival sort of like the alien invasion one, though with a different theme Keltham's not going to explain right now.
This is young Keltham and five other boys pretending to heroically ambush an incoming military force.
This is the military force firing an announcement into the house Keltham is inside, saying that their house just got blown up.
This is Keltham consulting a random number generator to determine that he's alive but injured and pinned under fallen debris.
This is literal superheated Merrin, the most famous endurance medical technician in the world with certs from half of Exception Handling, using up one of her equipment tokens to 'blow away' (politely open) the house's wrecked door, so she can enter and pretend to remove the heads of Keltham's dead fellow ambushers while reassuring Keltham that she knows it hurts, she's sorry, she'll be with him as soon as she can.
This is Keltham desperately pretending not to be at all starstruck, because he was not previously way into the Merrin fandom but even he has heard of the Ordinary Merrin Conspiracy, wherein Merrin has some weird psychological hangup about believing she is a totally normal and ordinary person or even something of a struggling low achiever, and everybody in Civilization is coordinating to pretend around her that ordinary normal people totally get their weird Exception Handling training scenarios televised to a million watchers on a weekly basis.
Keltham has been asked at one point what sort of woman from Civilization he found attractive. If he could have screwed any one woman of Civilization one time and wasn't trying to be clever about it, Keltham would've probably picked Merrin.
"You would think that, and yet, prediction markets were running at only 20% that she was secretly trolling us the whole time."
"There's this weird adorableness factor about it - that I'm not sure I can describe, but will try to describe anyways - Merrin is also famous for having, in your terms, it would be INT 16, I think, or even 15, and yet reaching the top of her profession. Usually when that happens you just sort of shrug and say that obviously the tests just failed at measuring how much real mental power she has, but the fact that she also has this one really weird hangup - proves she actually is somebody who started out non-brilliant and just succeeded anyways by working incredibly hard for incredibly long? It makes her - simultaneously an ultra-high-achieving role model who's much more famous than you are, and also, somebody who's committing this very large cognitive error where you know better than her about it. Which is not usually something you can say about a major public figure, you would not usually expect to be in a position where you would ever know about a cognitive error a public figure was committing, because they'd already have advisors much much smarter than you. But if you screw Merrin, you're not, like, just some strictly vastly inferior being that she's allowed into her cuddleroom. There is at least one topic you could totally win an argument with her about, as judged by impartial judges: namely, is she in fact a fairly ordinary person really. But you must never ever mention it in front of her. It makes you want to just whap her on the head with a banana until she stops being humble.”
"I don't know, it worked on me, what can I say."
A new group of around 20 people, shown on the Silent Image of a large television screen, sitting all over strange chairlike objects and draped over lying-cushions in some kid's enormous well-decorated living room. To Asmodean eyes, they're dressed more nicely than Legislators and Chief Executives; to dath ilani eyes, these are people who still have somebody left to impress, with a young person's dignity rather than an exalted person's. One girl is braiding a boy's long hair, all of them have mysterious objects like open metal books nearby them.
"My writing circle. They liked fiction with a theme of - selfish people, chaotic people, or what passed for that in dath ilan. Stories about people who end up in other worlds and for some perfectly totally reasonable reason they end up needing to run a large criminal organization. At the time I, left home, I was occasionally cuddling with her," red arrow on Illeia, "and that boy's sister," blue arrow pointing to Corun, "and would have liked to score with her," third arrow pointing to Ranthal, who is visibly the prettiest girl in the group, "but she's one of those dreadful types who just smiles when you ask her if she's got an upfront price -"
Keltham loses the image. He kind of expected to.
"Not really, their stories weren't really about selfish people, more like - having some totally reasonable Lawful Good reason to end up managing a criminal organization, which turns out to actually be fun for you, and then, you have to come to terms with the fact that you didn't properly hate yourself for doing the Lawful Good thing that didn't look Lawful Good - which is as close as Civilization comes to, even in stories -"
"I’m being unfair because I’m bitter. There are stories about selfish characters too. But none of those characters seemed to me to be at all like myself, the real thing. It was like - they were being selfish in contrast to Lawful Goodness, instead of as just themselves - somebody else's fantasy about being selfish - or if not that, aliens who were selfish, who didn't have any Good in them at all -"
"I preferred to stick with the stories about people who ended up managing criminal organizations for totally reasonable reasons. Further outside the - you don't have the expression. The way that things get creepy as they're almost like reality but still not quite right, instead of just being properly wrong. The Trough of the Unreal. If you actually know what it's like to not be completely Good."
"They didn't want to not be Lawful Good, not even a little. They wanted the Lawful Good thing to do to be managing a criminal organization. That was their fantasy. They wanted to have a different kind of fun, not act for reasons that were like my reasons. And who could blame them? I wouldn't want to act for any reasons but my own reasons, either. The thing that puts a valuation on everything is the value function, in Baseline 'utilityfunction', and there's a saying out of dath ilan that you can't argue the utilityfunction."
"All right, I've properly depressed myself for the evening, time for dessert."
Yaisa is very happy. She was on solid footing when their initial assignment was 'seduce and keep happy this important alien visitor who is a boy your age from a Lawful Good world'; she was much less happy when the assignment somehow turned into 'learn a lot of complicated math from this important alien visitor while pretending to be from Taldor as recently conquered by a Lawful Neutral version of Asmodeus'. And now it's back to mostly being the first thing, which is great.
It's not that she's bad at math. She is fine at math. She was never in the bottom third of the class and it was only rarely because she was sleeping with the teachers. She is a perfectly qualified wizard who hung second circle spells sooner than half the class and sleeping with the teacher doesn't let you cheat at that. It's just that math kind of sucks, and there's no thrill in it, and there's absolutely a thrill in seducing Lawful Good boys and watching them struggle between doing their important project or having sex with you, and getting orders from the gods about telling them what to do.
Yaisa's lovely time is only interrupted by periodically having to check with herself whether this is the thing she's been instructed by Pilar's oracle curse to explain to Keltham and then pay him for getting right. She's pretty sure it's not 'I'm really into the thing where I distract you from your very important job'; her gut tells her that Keltham would find that adversarial and not in a fun way. She's pretty sure it's not 'I want to bite you when you get distracted and go off on a tangent about probability theory'; an important skill in Yaisa's line of work is reading whether someone is into that at least a little under the right circumstances, and Keltham isn't.
Well. This investigation into what she wants that she'll pay Keltham Cheliax's money to give her will surely bear fruit eventually.
It might possibly become clear to her around the time that -
Yaisa has been warned about this! It's why she's not supposed to act like she's having more fun than she is, even though (she complained to Subirachs at length) 'having fun' is sort of a product of lots of things one of which is acting like you're having fun, and things not being awkward, and really she's pretty sure she'd have more fun if she was allowed to act like she was into things where that felt appropriate.
(Subirachs was not persuaded.)
....anyway Yaisa suspects 'let me act like I'm having more fun than I am' is definitely not the thing she's supposed to pay Keltham for even though she would pay Keltham for it.
....though. This does give her an idea.
"So," Yaisa says to Keltham. "you know what a very clever boy who is good at telling how he's aroused his partner could do."
"Instead of asking a very distracted girl to report on whether he is hurting her the right amount, he could figure it out, himself, from her body, from how she's responding to him. This is of course him doing more work and her doing less, so I suppose she ought to pay him, for the favor."
.
She does not complain that she's not getting what she paid for.
He wasn't particularly trying to hide the Glimpse of Beyond cast from Yaisa, of course; that would be futile with her arcane sight.
"Checking you hadn't been replaced with a much more experienced actress, or the one-in-a-billion person on this planet of actually a trillion people who would enjoy that."
"On a totally different note, is this when I find out that you actually have some incredibly fascinating backstory or maybe that you've got some huge problem I need to solve?"
"- because I was so perfect and sexy that it is hard to believe I'm just a student your own age?" asks Yaisa, sounding incredibly pleased about this. "Uh, I don't think I have any huge problems you need to solve? Or an interesting backstory? I do have this boyfriend who wants me to be able to figure out on the fly what a reasonable price for really great sex is as a share of my daily income which just quintupled, maybe you could go fight him or something."
"Oh, good. Because you matched one of my previously undiscovered sexual needs perfectly enough that, if you don't have anything at all unusual going on with you, it's ten-to-one evidence against the whole 'EroLARP' Hypothesis. And I do not actually want to be inside one of those."
He feels a strong impulse to just buy Yaisa out from her current job, right there on the bed where she lies beside him, but that is not an impulse buying decision.
It totally has an impulsive-purchase subset though! "Tomorrow morning while you're under the Fairness, if you're okay with it, I'd like to also ask you for a cheerful price on your next week for sex work. Just buy it all out from you and have you do whatever I want during those days, if I get around to wanting anything, or ordering you to do anything fun, and otherwise you can study wizardry or do whatever else you would've done. Because I am now rich, and can possibly afford nice things like hiring a full-time sex worker just to be around me being on call."
"To be clear, there's no rule saying you actually have to accept whatever price you name under the Fairness spell, you're allowed to try negotiating upwards from that, but I might make you a probabilistic final offer about it."
Keltham snuggles quietly. It's actually just dawning on him that this is a lot of evidence that - why doesn't his System 1 believe it's a lot of evidence that masochists are real? Because his System 1 was expecting the Conspiracy to have faked this successfully, by the time he got around to actually checking it this much later? Clearly so, which is why his System 1 doesn't want to update and claims this is just what was already predicted.
Keltham can't back his brain on this! It didn't have to be that way, probabilistically speaking, there could've been some weird obstacle to Yaisa enjoying herself, Carissa could have said they needed to import a masochist from offsite instead of pointing to one of the existing students, Carissa could have claimed masochists were rarer, Carissa could have not suggested this particular evidence.
The Conspiracy world where masochists don't exist is now smaller and narrower, and has more of its probability mass concentrated into modes where the Conspiracy's capabilities are high enough that Yaisa doesn't really exist or was reprogrammed to actually be a masochist. Either way she's not a threatened innocent whom Keltham is hurting.
This is just like the thing where he forgot why he originally started to suspect a hidden cleric, that the original evidence was that the attack's timing suggested eyes on Ione but not on Keltham, and he worried that the hidden cleric was Carissa. There's the evolutionary logic that says masochists shouldn't particularly exist, sure, but probably a lot of the real reason his brain became worried was that Carissa wasn't able to go above low arousal with him. Her having just come off seven years of emergency response fighting demons is a plausible reason for her having difficulty relaxing. Fine, the Conspiracy had somewhat more ability to select Yaisa before bringing the twelve researcher-candidates to meet Keltham in the villa library, but if the Conspiracy can find masochists at all it means masochists exist, if the Conspiracy can make masochists they could have applied the same procedure to Carissa. If they can find or produce Yaisa, why have Carissa merely pretend to be the same thing and then get caught. They’re not pretending everyone is a masochist, Meritxell isn’t.
There are still stories where it's all fake and masochists don't exist but they're now less plausible and his brain needs to recognize that the flaming probability went down okay. Literally update at all, here. The probability of masochists being fake did not just go up, it did not just stay the same, therefore it went down.
If his System 1 wants to claim that it already mostly expected this result, then it should admit that it earlier narrowed down the set of possibilities to the Conspiracy either having the power to make Yaisas, in which case why not remake Carissa, or Yaisa was already real, in which case why have Carissa merely pretend to be the same way. Keltham is repeating himself here, yes, but he's repeating himself because if his System 1 already expected this result, it needs to respect the probable reason why that result would be expected, or else reveal that it secretly suspects some different story.
...his brain yields. A little. Grudgingly.
...Keltham's deliberative process will take it, he guesses.
In time, feeling a little awkward about it because Civilization has protocols for dates ending and Yaisa knows none of them, Keltham tells Yaisa that he'll see her tomorrow.
(Pilar's curse has already submitted an after-action report noting that Yaisa didn't follow her instructions exactly and offered an amount that Keltham thought was obviously too high, which nearly caused a disaster, but Keltham figured out a recovery before he got suspicious. Today all the Asmodeans have learned a heartwarming lesson about the importance of precise obedience! Which, for obvious reasons of Chaotic Goodness, is not going to involve Yaisa getting tortured. Pilar's curse shouldn't even have needed to spell that out. It'll turn out fine after Yaisa answers under Fairness.)
Also in other business, Rugatonn's brief commentary on Asmodia's analysis of tropes has now arrived with the return-Teleported evening mail. Rugatonn notes that this general scenario seems to her to imply that it would be possible to bargain with the tropes by trying to bring about events that they would favor, but Asmodia is correct that this should be left to the Most High, who in turn is probably going to leave it up to Asmodeus, who is a lot better placed to do this sort of thing than Rugatonn.
They should, indeed, be wary of disrupting tropes, but this wariness should be restricted to the realm of not deliberately trying to do that for the sake of doing that; rather than treading carefully around anything that might be a trope, and foregoing their own interests from fear of that. The tropes so far seem to have had little trouble manifesting themselves without any such caution, and indeed, often manifested in the face of efforts to avert them. Keltham didn't seem to think it was dangerous to try to avert tropes out of his own interest; if anything he seemed to behave like the tropes expected it of him.
Rugatonn is pleased that Asmodia stopped when she could go no further, instead of making up a wrong answer; that she tried to simplify her thoughts sometimes, and not just complicate them; that she knew when it was time to leave the remaining decision to the Most High, but reasoned as far as she could herself before deciding so.
(Aspexia is starting to feel a strange feeling of hope that Asmodia is real.)
"You're still on the low-punishment regime though I cannot in your case say it's been salutary."
"I think you're jealous," says Yaisa.
"See, that's the sort of thing that makes me say I don't think the low-punishment regime has been salutary. I am not jealous. I am concerned that your inability to follow orders was nearly very dangerous to us, and I hope that in the future you will follow orders, precisely."
"I still don't have the slightest idea what number I should have named. I don't even know how to think about it. I have a ton of money, sure, I'd in fact give him a gold to have an incredible evening, why not? I'm not going around comparison shopping because I don't want to try that with random losers who'll be bad at it!"
"Yaisa, do you have the capacity to conduct yourself as a Worldwound-cleared soldier which you're choosing not to exercise for your own reasons, or do you in fact not possess it but you got cleared anyway by fucking somebody."
"I can display no personality and obey orders, sir."
"It's appreciated. So, you don't have a felt sense of how much money really good sex is worth to you, since you don't buy sex, and would tend to find the fact you had to pay for it to be a negative indicator about how good it'd be. Yes?"
"Yes."
"How much of a discount would you be inclined to give Keltham, on his price to have you for a week or a year, if you knew he'd do that."
" - depends what I could get away with? The entire concept of a fair price is just - I'm glad it's not Asmodean. I don't like it."
"So you'd quote Keltham the exact same number as you'd quote alt-Keltham who won't do that specific thing?"
"In both cases I'd be trying to come up with the highest number they wouldn't turn down, not the - number that's fairest."
"Say that you could either have sex like that with Keltham, or have normal sex with him and also get a gold piece."
"Sex like that."
"Say that you could either have sex like that with Keltham, or have normal sex with him and also get ten gold pieces."
"Sex like that."
" - really?"
"It was really great sex! And I have a lot of money right now."
"Aren't you saving for - magic items, fancy clothes, beauty treatments -"
" - yeah but I'm not in a hurry about saving for those things. If the project doesn't turn into a disaster I'll get them all sooner or later and if it does I'll get executed."
"I think I'm genuinely fascinated by how much her thought processes just do not want to be guided into Lawful patterns. My mind is trying to convince me that alterYaisa will claim all of this stuff out loud to Keltham tomorrow morning, where Keltham can try to argue her out of it, and we can overhear how he does. I'm not even sure my mind is wrong about that."
"We do have Cayden Cailean's assurance that it'll turn out fine," says Carissa in the tone of one who puts little weight on Cayden Cailean's assurance that it'll turn out fine.
"Alter Yaisa would absolutely be confused about this too," says Yaisa.
"Silence for two minutes while I try to think of a better option."
If someone has to argue Yaisa out of this she'd really rather it be Keltham. Obviously she's going to need to learn, if Yaisa's going to be a devil eventually, but - it'd be interesting if it can in fact be done just through argument.
Asmodia silently thinks that she is going to want to check that with Snack Service, before assuming that Snack Service meant "it'll turn out fine no matter what you do after trying to rely on this guarantee" as opposed to "it'll turn out fine if you don't do anything dumb".
This has crossed Carissa's mind too. "Okay, someone ask Snack Service if it's okay for Yaisa to explain all her inability to produce a Lawful ordering of her preferences to Keltham and see what he does about it. If it is, then we go with that. If it's not, we need to know now so we can call in another petrification. I'd prefer not to, though, if it can be avoided."
Things won't go wrong between Yaisa and Keltham that morning - from the standpoint of Asmodeus's interests, that is - so long as Yaisa is honest in everything she says, and doesn't pretend to feel differently about anything than she actually feels. She'll leave things out, obviously; but if she says something at all, it shouldn't be a lie; if she shows an emotion at all, it should be what she really feels.
Keltham listens to Yaisa's presentation of how much she doesn't actually know any way to arrive at the fair value with the fascinated look of somebody who's suddenly, actually appreciating that huge amounts of childhood training he went through were there for an important reason and accomplished anything.
Keltham says that he will, if you ask him about any price that isn't a large fraction of his overall wealth and reliable expected future income, give the same answer to 'how much would you pay to get this extra' and 'how much additional payment would you forgo to get this extra' and 'how much would you pay to avoid losing this' and 'how much additional payment would you demand if you were losing this'. Because, like, if you didn't, your trade patterns would go in exploitable circles, depending on how much money you had and how people asked you various questions.
It leads to really large differences that matter in everyday financial life, so everybody, not just Keepers, trains until the asymmetries between financial gains and financial losses mostly go away. If you have time to think, you can just consider all four questions and average the result, for example, to guarantee that you'll give the same answer no matter the form of the question.
There's all sorts of mental exercises for figuring out where to start pricing things, if you don't know where to start! Find something that seems about equally valuable to you, equally exciting or happiness-making to you, which already has a legible price, and ask, not how much you pay for that, but how much you would pay for that.
Some amount of words later, he'll get around to asking Yaisa her Fair price for Keltham doing what he did last night, and her Fair cheerful price to be his for a week, including his control of certain matters. Well, Keltham will ask that after he's quickly, before the spell wears off, explained to Yaisa the notion of the least price that makes her feel positively cheerful about the transaction, and not just that the transaction was fair - hopefully this spell enables that part too, but if the spell-price doesn't sound cheerful to her, she should say so, obviously.
Yaisa is worried that Cheliax is going to start teaching that rule and then, look, more math. She does not say that. She does say 'last night was great and I would pass up ten gold to be sure I got to experience it once, but if it were going to be a regular thing it'd probably be more like the difference between being happy with two gold per day and being happy with three gold per day to be yours full time. ...plus healing if it's needed and if it gets to the point where Regenerate is needed I might want to renegotiate prices."
Keltham finds, rather to his surprise, that he's choked up and can't actually answer that in words.
Nobody's ever told him that they enjoyed sex from him that much. Ever. Not even close. But it makes sense if he imagines that, first of all, everything you can in Civilization pay to learn how to do using careful biofeedback-based training would, in fact, be an elite sex worker service or maybe flatly not exist in Golarion. And, second, that masochists do exist there, and people who don't want to be in control, who want things to happen to them without them having to be in control, who want others to be powerful over them in the way that Keltham enjoyed being powerful over Yaisa, that he is sent now by higher forces to an impossible world in which impossible complements to his own sexuality exist and are common enough to be unremarkable -
He can't talk, so he just folds Yaisa into a hug.
When he can speak again, Keltham will tell Yaisa that she gets twenty-five gold for the week, slightly more than three and a half gold per day; and how often Keltham feels like doing that to her, will be up to him. But she won't have to miss any payments for it, when it happens, because it is also something he'd pay her for, if that was how it went.
He does still expect the five silver from her, of course. (There is a ritual and a sacredness to these things, people should not be led astray into thinking that perhaps some offered price will be refused as payment later, and Yaisa is the one who offered to pay.)
...he's sorry for questioning her about the price, last night. He, he just - it was hard for him to imagine that it was really something she wanted that much. He's sorry.
"A - difference I've noticed, between dath ilan and Cheliax, is that in Cheliax if someone offers what sounds like a good deal, you - take it. Maybe tell them later they should drive a harder bargain next time. And you could think that's because we're - not as Good - and that might be a bit of it - but - we're more different from one another, we've got more kinds of people, it's easier to be wrong, when you think you know better than someone else what's good for them.
Anyway." She hands him the five silver.
"Pleasure doing business with you." He accepts the money.
...and then of course immediately thinks -
"Try to answer this one quickly, though, just let the Division of Gains spell do the work for you, if it can. What would've been a fair price for the service you originally thought you were purchasing, that was just about me using my own focus to figure out how much pain was arousing you instead of making you describe it, not taking into account the thing I did after that?"
" - I mean I thought you might do something like that? Like - the point of it being your job while I don't have to do any work is that things like that will get to happen? I'm still not good at this prices thing but - I was sort of paying to find out whether something really great like that would happen, because it'd be worth passing up 10 gold for the one off and a gold each time if it did?"
"You are right and I was wrong, I wasn't thinking about the value-of-information there from your perspective."
"I still want to know, because I am curious and my mind will continue nagging me about it forever otherwise, what would've been the value of just that one service - the one I foolishly thought you were asking for in isolation."
"I'll pay you a silver for the answer."
"You're not getting any money back, because you're the one who priced the service and you knew what you were buying better than I did."
He hands her a silver.
"Are you okay with - occasional truthspells only about whether you really liked something and whether you're really doing okay, not so much because I don't trust you, as because part of my brain is living in terror of what might be true and I am trying to be gentle with that part of me?" This, too, should be asked while the Fairness is still up.
Keltham escorts Yaisa then to his bedroom, to get 25 gold if she's still amenable to that arrangement after Fairness wears off.
And to the cuddleroom shortly afterwards.
He is, in fact, feeling pretty darned happy about several things right now. Being able to hire a full-time sex worker with 1/20 of his nonvolatile income is the least of it.
Part of himself objects that this is too Evil. The rest of Keltham is feeling pretty unified about ignoring this voice and proceeding anyways. 'Be capable of ever listening to what people claim is okay' is something he's been telling himself a lot lately.
In his morning lecture, Keltham makes a further run at Utility, called also Probable Utility or Expected Utility because the notion of a quantitative utility is meaningless without probabilities to multiply those utilities by. If you were working only with certainties, the ordering on your preferences would be all that existed; the notion of comparable intervals of wantingness is only useful when you can take fractions of outcomes and want about those.
Value-of-information is an example of one concept that exists under Probable Utility, hopefully simple in an intuitive sense, but pretty important in practice. Keltham ran into that not long ago when a slightly more Civilized person of Cheliax offered to pay him to do something, Keltham thought that price sounded much too high and didn't have any Fair Pricing spells left and wrongly questioned her choice, and Keltham had forgotten to take into account that what he was trying would be a new experiment whose outcome would give her information relevant to her future choices, and let her make those choices better.
Value-of-information isn't quite as trivial as it might sound, as a matter of Law, because what you're actually doing is calculating the effect of this decision on your own future decisions, not because it modifies what you want or forces your future self to make a particular decision, but because your future self will then have more information and that is something your present self knows. It is a kind of extrinsic curiosity, you might call it, that would appear in the calculations of ideal-agents who never felt curious about anything.
Also in that interaction, Keltham asked her the next morning under Fairness what would have been the fair price for the service Keltham thought she was trying to buy, if it had existed in isolation and not been informative, because he wanted to know if he'd also been wrong to question even the price he'd thought she was offering. Keltham paid her a silver for that information, not because he desperately needed that information or expected to make at least one silver from using it in the future, but just because his brain would've kept bugging him about it otherwise.
In reasoning like that, in feeling curious, in putting a value on information that you might not even vaguely expect to need as much as you offered to pay, in buying information where you predictably won't make a profit, is a person being unLawful? Had Keltham aspired to be improving his coherence and Lawfulness, on this occasion, should he have tried to calculate the real-life importance of knowing this information? Including, maybe, its value for Keltham calibrating his judgment of similar prices in Cheliax, or the prospect that some use for the info would come up that Keltham just hadn't foreseen - it doesn't have to be a shortsighted or blind calculation, when you ask about the value of learning. But if that calculation would have shown the information's expected future profit at less than a silver, was Keltham acting unLawfully in buying it for a silver?
It won't be a terrible judgment on him, if they say yes. Keltham knows he's not a Keeper. The question he's posing is whether they think this is something a Keeper would ever do. Close your eyes, come to a judgment about that, raise your hand to a corresponding height; then open your eyes, and argue. Tier-2s speak first if more than one person wants to speak at a time.
"I think the gods don't do it," Gregoria says. "Don't seek out information that they are committed to not acting on in any way, that is. Because you're expending resources to get something that can't bring about any of your goals. But if you just valued knowing things for its own sake - like Zon-Kuthon, but for knowledge not torture - then you're not wrong, like we talked about yesterday."
"I guess that answer wasn't as much of a puzzle as I thought it would be, not that there's anything wrong about that. Yep, I have both extrinsic curiosity from thinking about what I can do with information to achieve my other values, and also intrinsic curiosity from being human."
"There's no god of curiosity, or whose list of things includes curiosity? Nethys - I guess could already have found out everything he's curious about that he can reasonably find out ever or by expending any further effort in the short term. I would expect the ex-human gods to have retained their curiosity from having started out human, though? Cayden Cailean, Nethys, Norgorber, Iomedae... I'm not recalling the full list but it had more."
Does anyone want to stop Ione from voicing her guess about Nethys having curiosity and clericing curious people, pretending to speak out of the conventional Nethys theology that alterIone would obviously be thoroughly familiar with since those books wouldn't be banned in alterCheliax?
Before Keltham, like, asks her.
"Nethys clerics curious people, and while He can't talk to us directly at all, it's conventional Nethysian theology that He possesses curiosity as an individual goal for himself and not just as a divine concern. I'd be shocked if He wasn't curious about events here in particular takaral. Just because He's seen everything that's already happened doesn't mean He can predict exactly how it will play out, and there are strange factors that hover at the edge even of His perception, far beyond what other gods have ever begun to ravel."
Is anybody else going to ask Ione how she knows that last part, if Nethys has zero comms capacity? No? Keltham won't ask either, then.
...Keltham continues to try various angles on Probable Utility.
Suppose there's a switch which controls whether you get a cherry (for certain), or a banana with 10% probability. Let's say the switch starts out set to Banana, and somebody says, "Well, I'd probably like a banana more than ten times as much as I like a single cherry, but also I really don't like uncertainty and would rather know for sure I get the cherry." So they pay a hundredth of a copper to flip the switch from Banana to Cherry.
Now let's say that we first flip a coin, and if it comes up Queen, you get nothing no matter what the switch says. Imagine that same person seeing a switch set to Cherry, who says, "Well, I'd probably like a banana more than ten times as much as I like a single cherry, and both outcomes are uncertain, so I'd rather have 5% probability of a banana than 50% probability of a cherry." They pay a hundredth of a copper to flip from Cherry to Banana. Then the coin is actually spun, and comes up Text. Suddenly the person says, "Oh, wait, now I've changed my mind, I'd rather have 100% one cherry than 10% one banana," and they pay you another hundredth of a copper to flip the switch back.
Conversely, if the coin comes up Queen, so you get nothing either way, you don't particularly benefit from the switch being set to Banana. So the person who pays to switch from Cherry to Banana is just making a pure mistake; either they won't care how the switch is set, later, or they'll predictably pay to switch it back.
You can even imagine - if you want to be a troll about it - offering an agent like that the ability to force and constrain their future self's decision. When they first see the switch on Cherry, they pay a hundredth copper to send it from 50% of a cherry to 5% of a banana. Then you point out that their future self will just throw it back, if the coin comes up Text, so you charge them another hundredth copper to weld the switch in place. Then you spin the coin and it comes up Text, and the agent is all like 'Curse my past self for constraining me so!'
This, needless to say, is not Lawful, not a thing that is supposed to happen to ideal agents, or Keepers. It is a fragment of Law indeed that an agent should never pay a thousandth of a copper to constrain the choices of its future self, or rather, the Law is derived in part from asking how agents could conduct themselves so that this never happened to them.
Now ordinary human beings even of Civilization do not come close to this kind of constancy over time. But even regular dath ilani would be alarmed if you showed they were expending resources fighting their own future selves about anything large or important. Such would be a good time to ask one of the most fundamental questions according to that proverb out of dath ilan: "How about if I did Something-Else-Which-Was-Not-That?"
"Our adversaries have Splendour 40 now. Lovely."
"I'd say that doesn't reveal a defect of your present Lawfulness, it reflects - something that might forcibly mind-control you away from whatever coherence you currently have between past and future selves? It's not something you can fix by an act of will, maybe there's something you could do if you're already a sixth-rank Keeper but you're not. So the thing you do which is Not That is in fact to make sure you get involuntarily dragged over to the devil afterwards."
"Though there'd be ethical questions there, about whether the new person who's created as a result of talking to the 40-Splendour Brainwasher has their own right to live the way they now desire, that is violated if a devil brainwashes you back into existence again. Some out of dath ilan would say that person is being wronged by you, because you set things up for them to be made so, and then unmade. Yet many even of those would also say, well, if you gotta do it at all, that's still the way to do it, sorry."
Suppose you have to choose between, on the one hand, a P1 probability of C happening vs. a (1 - P1) probability of some baseline B happening, like a 90% probability of getting a Cherry, say; or on the other hand, a P2 probability of D happening vs. (1 - P2) of B, like a 80% probability of getting a Date. We could say that Preference(0.9, Cherry, Baseline) is how much you desire that gamble over those two outcomes; and Preference(0.8, Date, Baseline) is how much you want the other. If a switch controls which of those two you get, then the gamble to which you attach the higher Preference is the one you'll want the switch to be thrown for.
Now suppose that, in the composition of Events as pathways through Time, there is interposed some new event with probability P3 that determines whether the switch is run at all; if not, the outcome is Baseline.
The condition for not throwing the switch and then throwing it back, is that if Preference(0.9, Cherry, Baseline) > Preference(0.8, Date, Baseline), then Preference(0.9*P3, Cherry, Baseline) > Preference(0.8*P3, Date, Baseline), likewise if the value is equal, or lesser. Combine this with simpler ideas like "If you prefer 100% of one thing to 100% of another, you should prefer higher probabilities of getting that thing rather than the other, in gambles between them" and you can pretty thoroughly spotlight the Law of Probable Utility showing that Preference() must compound probabilities with utilities the same way that probabilities compound with each other. So, yes, multiplication.
All this of Probable Utility or Expected Utility, is the Law of navigating paths through time, events, and probability, to the destinations of desire. It combines with, and in a sense subsumes, the Law of Probability, which is the Law of learning of observation, of guessing and refining your guesses, of knowing the world around you at all, of predicting the future and making better predictions next time, of knowing how confident to be and what you don't know.
The Law of Probability, seen from one perspective, subsumes all of Validity as the small special case where probabilities are 0 or 1, and things are known with certainty.
From another perspective, of course, Validity subsumes Mathematics, and Mathematics is the thing that all the other Laws including Probable Utility are made of.
Keltham informs Asmodia at lunchtime that today would happen to be a good day if she wants to try spending the night together with him; he's planning to spend all his ero energy today on other activities before then. This is a conventional thing to do before a first date with an asexual if you want to be sure of not sending them any accidental ero signals. Obviously Asmodia should tell him if she's got different concepts about how to do that sort of thing; Keltham was just guessing that since Taldane didn't have a word for 'asexual', it probably didn't have standard gendertrope advice about courting asexuals either.
Great!
Keltham eats relatively quickly, and then drags off Yaisa to his cuddleroom again.
When done, Keltham taps himself with a Lesser Restoration, and spends the first half of the afternoon working on actual contract language with a Chelish representative who is So. Much. Slower. at contract-writing than Lrilatha. Keltham is not sure why they are trying to do it this way.
So he asks and is told, roughly, that Lrilatha wouldn't be able to sign off on this contract as something Hell could back, because it contains a lot of terms that Keltham made up for relatively inscrutable Keltham-reasons, plus more terms that somebody in Chelish governance made up for inscrutable human-Governance reasons. When a contract contains any significant amount of stuff like that, it becomes a human thing that the humans have to do themselves. Lrilatha is not in the business of checking contract terms that somebody else made up, to see if they could possibly do nasty things, based on some clever trick that could rely on facts Lrilatha doesn't know. If you want a contract from Lrilatha, you tell her what the contract is supposed to do and why, and Lrilatha writes you the entire contract, and can then give you Lawful assurance of what she expected the terms to do when she invented them.
...that's fair.
The Chelish central bank allegedly doesn't know what their exchange rates would have been for backable commodities the day before Keltham showed up. There's a note attached that says that the officer who runs the Chelish bank seems to be philosophically anti-weird-projects, not in a personally anti-Keltham way, just in the way of believing that central banks ought to do exactly what they've always done and Governance should not be allowed to bother them while they're working.
So Cheliax is just taking out all contract language having to do with their central bank in any way, and replacing it with a list of six commodities such that Cheliax anticipates being able to pay off any reasonable debt up to 20,000,000 gold in some combination of those, according to this fixed valuation which they can swear to have been the market trading price in Westcrown on the day before Keltham arrived, according to merchant records. If the Project ends up being owed more than one gold piece per Chelish citizen, and the circumstances of this aren't such that Cheliax now has more of those commodities safely on hand, further debt to the Project starts to be payable in title to government-owned lands, as valued by this more reasonable government office on the day before Keltham arrived. After that, the Project is responsible for finding somebody willing to buy those lands in order to complete the reimbursement process.
...works for him. Keltham adds a rider about the government of Cheliax not being able to block or regulate land sale as it usually would if the Project wants to override that in order to complete a sale inside or outside Cheliax; and those commodities of payment being deliverable without taxation to ships owned or designated by the Project at Chelish water ports, which ships shall enter and leave without taxation or other hindrance.
It now goes back to Governance and, with any luck, will be ready to be signed tomorrow.
...all right, if Keltham is going to that length to make her feel safe - not that Asmodia would've felt even slightly unsafe, after reading Keltham's thought transcripts, and having like any concept whatsoever of who he is, especially as compared to the rest of Cheliax - or that Asmodia would even significantly complain if Keltham tried to have sex with her - then Asmodia will take him up on his offer, made after some spell-warmed and starlit discussion up on the fortress roof, to try having something warm snuggling her in bed under entirely non-ero circumstances.
Is it true in alterCheliax that alterAsmodia never had anyone hold her, hug her, except in a sexual context, for roughly as long as she can remember? That the only flesh-to-flesh contact she's felt in a very long time has been intended to hurt her at worst and use her at best? It can't have been the same for alterAsmodia as for trueAsmodia in trueCheliax, though Asmodia is having trouble visualizing exactly how it would have been different, the way her life must have gone instead. But it could be true in alterCheliax that boys wouldn't have a concept of alterAsmodia as an asexual, and wouldn't offer to hold her in bed without thinking that sex might eventually be in the offing. Keltham clearly assigns high probability that this might be true of alterAsmodia, based on whatever he already believes about alterCheliax. It is the safer course not to contradict it.
So alterAsmodia hesitates a bit, and then says she's shy about discussing her history, in that way. But she is definitely interested in taking up Keltham on that offer to see what happens.
It's... nice.
She catches herself thinking that she might want to sometimes Teleport back to wherever Keltham is, so long as it's nowhere near Cheliax, to have this again, if she hasn't found something equally warm and safe by then.
Does this imply the tropes are real?
Even as Asmodia tries to work out conditional probabilities and likelihood ratios in her head, the thought occurs to her that this is what Keltham's inner mental life must be like all the time.
And Asmodia still hasn't figured out how to Lawfully derive probabilities before evidence and it comes up every time she tries to do this. She knows that things with added complications have to be less probable than the same things without those added complications, and that, unfortunately, is it. Her entire algorithm for prior probabilities currently consists of making up numbers that maybe sorta sound right. She should have tried to figure that out while she had the Most High's crown.
"Obviously it feels dangerous to declare success on any element of this house of cards but I'm inclined to say that, to whatever extent our objective was to have most of Keltham's energy and attention occupied in liaisons, that's a success, and to whatever extent our objective was to convince him that masochists are real, that's been accomplished as well. If he were a normal person, I think I'd say we've now driven the probability of a Conspiracy down low enough he'll stop looking for it absent an actual slip-up; of course, he's not, so we're going to have to keep convincingly inhabiting alter-Cheliax.
But I think we're in the place where we can start thinking about stage 2, where we have a stably contained Keltham teaching a growing group of students, rather than stage 1 where we are scrambling to keep him persuaded for one more day that he's not inside something he should demand out of.
....that's a request for suggestions. I don't know what stage 2 looks like. I don't know what's most valuable to Cheliax here and I don't know if there are other things like - high risk of all the girls becoming defectors - to look out for. I know stage 5, in which we improve the process of devil-making and enable Asmodeus in the conquest of all, and I think stage 4 involves building Lawful Evil ilani Civilization, but I haven't got detailed stage 2 ideas."
"And when Keltham in time finds out, leaves us in fury, and raises up Osirion or Lastwall or both as instruments of vengeance on Cheliax and Hell itself? The Chosen does have some reason for spending so much effort in corrupting Keltham, even at the expense of slowing Cheliax's rise."
"Can we maybe manage to keep Keltham contained for five years? In that time Cheliax might be powerful enough to ruin Osirion and Lastwall, if necessary, before Keltham could raise them up against us; or force them to treaty."
"I'm frankly not seeing how to get Keltham corrupted far enough. But then I don't understand how the Chosen corrupted him as far as she did, so."
"We should solicit everyone's predictions but I bet we don't get five years. That's just a very long time without a slip-up, even if it'd take a slip-up, and it might not. Stabler outcomes include - when he leaves it's because he's fed up with Governance but not in a conspiracy way, he doesn't expect Osirion or Lastwall to be better, and he takes the girls with him intending to build his own independent power base somewhere.... when he leaves he's not blazingly furious with us enough to go to war, or in love with enough of the people he'd be going to war with to hesitate -"
"Asmodeus's will on this does prohibit us deliberately taking direct hostages against him."
"Thinking about it, though, I'm certain Asmodeus's instruction does not prohibit us ruining or destroying any country Keltham tries to set up in, until no country will take him. Not in a way of us being clever and working around those instructions, it's just plain allowed. If we could make even a hundredfold-smaller version of that Radiance beam weapon Keltham showed you, the one that his Civilization uses to launch things into space -"
Carissa feels an unpleasant lurch of something. Which is childish; Asmodeus's conquest of all is going to involve some killing. That's how that sort of thing goes. "So that's a win condition, then, having dath ilani weaponry. Maybe the one Asmodeus intends. And Keltham becoming Evil enough he can learn the truth and decide to stay is a different win condition. And Keltham deciding he trusts no country and will go hide out with his girls in a secret location is a different win condition. And losing looks like him deciding to go to Osirion before we have the ability to destroy Osirion or force them to terms, or him dying and being resurrected by them."
"It is weird we can't provide him with an entire library of well-written books; it wouldn't be weird for a tiny project to be limited to Ione's book-getting ability. It is weird we can't provide him with clerics of many different gods - where are we on faking that, by the way - and wouldn't be weird for a tiny project. If he ends up deciding to retreat with his girls and take over the world, he's going to be teaching weaponry, and I bet otherwise it's going to be very very hard to entice him to teach that. It's not as good as him staying here, I don't think we should bring it about on purpose, but I do think it's a win condition if well-executed."
"Fake paladin's ready at your will, I expect we could turn up a Lawful Evil cleric of Irori who'd swear to work with us, maybe a genuine Lawful Neutral of Erecura who'd be cooperative with Cheliax but could also show off channeling positive energy, anything else is just calling in an impersonator and hoping they're good enough. Got told the same about fake envoys, it's standard impersonation and the question is just whether standard impersonation works on Keltham."
"I'll register my own thought that if it looks sufficiently sure that Keltham's going to break containment, we ought to have his girls take the initiative on doing that. We get a lot more control over results if it's under our initiative rather than his."
"Agreed. We might want a book pointing at a Conspiracy that the girls are uninvolved in, for Ione to stumble across and show him, or something Yaisa can point out to him, he really likes her. We should do some test runs of escaping with Keltham, see what errors come up in the course of doing something that complex. And we'll need the Glibness swords. I should have those worked out in a couple of weeks."
He is a little suspicious that, somehow, the best use of some of Carissa Sevar's time has ended up as her using her admittedly very high Spellcraft to craft magical weapons. But it is no longer his place to say that. Subirachs would be the one to point that out, and she'd probably do it in private rather than now with Maillol watching.
"Acknowledged," Maillol says.
(There is now a Discord channel which, only on the hour, notifies of new Planecrash updates if at least 25 tags have accumulated since the last such update. I suggest setting yourself up to get push notifications from this Discord channel, if you would like to avoid constant-refreshing habits.)