That's so disappointing and she doesn't bother hiding it. 

"We'll get there eventually," says Carissa with cheerful determination. "...not the Good part."

"I think once your Good people have enough Law to, you know, not end up being incredibly destructive and tearing through any social order they find themselves inside, there is frankly a lot to be said for having the people who keep custody of dangerous information, probably incredibly dangerous information, probably even more so in Golarion than in dath ilan, being people who innately lean towards defending alike the welfare of all sapient life.  Provided those people are actually making correct predictions about what defends sapient life from harm without a bunch of terrible second-order effects, and not being systematically wrong in audience-predictable directions like fictional Good supervillains.  There are, even I think, any places for Good in the universe, and that sure seems like one of them.  If you have enough Law."

Actually, why isn't Otolmens classified as Lawful Good?  Maybe ask Broom that at some point?

Carissa can think of counterarguments but isn't sure this is a point it's wise to argue. "Everyone in Hell is Evil and it works out all right? I guess we're lucky Asmodeus wants the universe to keep existing and have lots and lots of people who can grow into devils in it."

"Yeah, what does Asmodeus actually get out of it?  Or is he just the god of Lawful Evil people, who, if he fell into the system himself, would actually be Lawful Good, but like actual Lawful Good and not whatever passes for horrible chaos-infused 'Lawful Good' in Golarion?  I haven't actually heard any motives or plans attributed to Asmodeus except for Good ones like wanting Cheliax to have better technology and governance etcetera."

Broom is worried about the sheer bizarreness of what Keltham is ending up believing; it seems one plausible way that Keltham could end up planning some very great deed about whose consequences he is very mistaken.

"I mean, He wants more people to become devils, so he wants Cheliax to be prosperous and have a large population; He wants other kinds of god-resources that are harder to directly explain but I think having more people and Lawfuller and Eviller people helps - like, He can pick them as clerics, He can interpret them better. He likes contracts - I think just in their own right, a contract that enables something weird and complicated is inherently pleasing to Him, which I suspect is why a devil took time out of his day to help you with ours - I think He's actually Lawful Evil, though, He's just pursuing his own ends, but it happens you can do lots more with a rich and Lawful civilization than with a weak and stupid one. I guess the gods who are Good would want a Lawful Evil god who had selfish goals that Good approves of, so maybe there was some selection operating long before recorded history."

Makes sense.  Well, sort of.  Wanting people to be devils still sounds kind of Good unless you're doing something else with them?  But Keltham wants to get back to math.

"To put Asmodia's argument into symbols, we could rewrite," after a quick Prestidigitation, he should really hang two of those so he's not stuck constantly asking for help if he fails to catch one, "like so:"

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2000
P(Everything else  ◁ Conspiracy) = 1998/2000

"Because in fact, I would have maybe assigned something like a 0.1% probability, if I'd had to start listing possibilities in advance, that either of those groups would go off by themselves at that particular lunch."

"But this doesn't completely trash the Conspiracy theory, because you could say something very similar about the Ordinary World; an Ordinary World wouldn't have given me any more reason to think a group of girls would go off by themselves at that particular lunch.  Right?"

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000

"And so, I claim, we end up in the same place as before."

Concerned silent students!

Pilar raises a hand.  "I think I have something I'd say, even if I didn't know anything about the actual story?"

"So you think you can successfully correct for knowing the real answer?  I'll let you try your hand at it, and see what I think.  Go ahead."

"I have a strong sense that rules are being broken somewhere.  Why is Carissa-Ione-Pilar 1 in 220,000 in an ordinary world and 1 in 2000 in a conspiracy world?  What are the rules that say that part?"

"Simplicity itself:  In either an Ordinary world or a Conspiracy world, there is, from my perspective, a 0.1% chance that some group of girls will mysteriously vanish at lunchtime.  In an ordinary world, the further chance that this group is exactly Carissa-Ione-Pilar is 1 in 220, via picking from 12 then from 11 then from 10, and there's six possible ways to pick Carissa-Ione-Pilar in any order, that way, which works out to 1 in 220 probability.  If there is a dark government conspiracy, on the other hand, the group must clearly be either Carissa-Ione-Pilar or Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia, and for simplicity's sake we'll say that either case has equal probability."

"By what rules does one get from the dark government conspiracy to Carissa-Ione-Pilar, or for that matter, Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia?"

Keltham speaks with grave authority.  "Tremendously advanced mathematics, far too advanced for you to understand."

"He's lying, Pilar."

"I did know that, it's just..."

"'Trolling' is not lying.  Lying is when the person actually ends up persistently believing you."

"Since all my special knowledge is just about the Ordinary world, not about the Conspiracy one, I think I should be allowed to say the same as anyone else that I don't see any way that the Conspiracy world actually does single out Carissa-Ione-Pilar in particular."

"You're obviously the more powerful operatives of the conspiracy, who'd need to occasionally hold meetings, and hence, find some flimsy excuse to have a private meeting among yourselves."

"As opposed to just passing Message around at the regular lunch table?"

"Well, I think the general point passes.  What actually singles out Carissa-Ione-Pilar isn't the Conspiracy hypothesis at all, it's a completely different hypothesis, so, yes, the probabilities I wrote down were utterly bogus."

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Weird Other Hypothesis) = 1/2,000

"We're not going to worry about that last one, I mostly currently think it's incorrect.  But now let me ask - do you all agree that, absent this weird other hypothesis, in either the Conspiracy or the Ordinary world, that in probable realistic real worlds where some set of three women go off by themselves, the chance of it being Carissa-Pilar-Ione is in fact 1 in 220?  Carissa, Pilar, Ione, you're again not allowed to say anything here."

"I mean, it depends why?" ventures Gregoria.

"Well, sure, but if you don't know anything about why, any set of three women is as likely as any other.  After we see some particular set of three women, we can go try to make up a reason for why those three, but that gives us no advance reason to expect any three women over any other three - I so claim."

Is Project Lawful over? Is their cover blown? They sit there silently, nervous and confused.