"A good player would've folded that hand, and a great player wouldn't have been in that situation. But even a mediocre player would've accused their opponent of cheating."

"How could I have known that? For that matter, how could you have known that?"

He pulls his cell phone out of his pocket and opens up a note he typed out on the way upstairs with the probabilities in it.

(This is the first he's used his cell phone since the chess game. He is immensely grateful that they haven't been Harold Shea'd.)

"Your hand was acceptable. Pair and two pair aren't as strong in seven-card stud as they are in hold 'em, but two hidden face cards and a weak third street are acceptable. Leading the action on fourth street with an all-in using so few chips instead of checking let your opponent know your position well enough to put you on a tight range. If you had checked it back you could've lured her further in or folded as necessary.

"Your cards make sense. Your opponent's cards do not. She called you down with six-three-two, improving to a pair on fourth street. That hand is weak. I could imagine her raising to try to bluff you out, given that she had the bigger stack, but once you jammed with an ace showing she ought to have folded. The odds of her winning that hand were low – she improved from two pair deuces and sixes to a full house on the final card, which is the kind of lucky break that good players try not to rely on."

That's all well and good, but believing your opponent is a cheater isn't enough. You have to actually know that you were scammed to force a forfeit. Unexpected good luck isn't enough.

"You used that thing to figure out she was cheating?"

"We did not. I suppose you could use it that way, if you were so inclined, but we figured it out the hard way."

You don't need to be a human calculator with the exact percentages in mind to be a champion poker player, but if you can't reckon the odds in some form or another you're dead in the water and surrounded by sharks.

In other worlds not governed by the Covenant, someone with power might be tempted to appropriate such a device by force. In other cultures not governed by the Covenant, this might be the time to propose a mutually beneficial trade. After all, two kids looking like this must have a price for a greater artifact, however they came by it.

In the Kingdom of Elkia, this is the time for a wager.

"I challenge you," she says, pointing at the glowing rectangle.

"And our wager is to be the「cell phone」? What do you think, Sora?"

Stephanie has no idea what a 'cell phone' is, but in context it's obvious. The words latch on to her conception of the device, but not with the full force of a native speaker who happens to know with confidence what they mean.

Is it supplying them with translation magic as well? That would certainly be useful, were the government of Elkia to have access to it.

"Quite the price. What to ask of the Princess of Elkia in exchange? I happen to think this gadget is worth thousands of gold, or even more."

Inconveniently, this is almost certainly true. If Sora knows what the artifact is worth she can't get away with lowballing him. Not quite as good, but if she wins now she can still get away with retaining it personally.

"I can have it appraised by the Ministry of Progress, without informing them of the outcome of the game, and pay you its value out of the treasury," she says.

"And if they won't extend you that much credit? I've heard interesting things about your future as a leader."

Admittedly he's heard all of them in the last twenty minutes, but still.

"I propose the following. We play a game of Handicap Rock Paper Scissors. If you win, you get this." He waggles the phone enticingly. "If we win, we get its cash value as assessed by your Ministry, or else your faithful service for as long as they say is equivalent in value."

Stephanie thinks this is sort of ridiculous, but is more interested in the terms of the game. "I'm familiar with Rock Paper Scissors, but not Handicap Rock Paper Scissors. What are the rules?"

"We each say 'rock paper scissors' and choose one at the same time. Paper beats rock, rock beats scissors, scissors beats paper. If we both make the same choice, we repeat the game until we've made different choices. I expect you knew all that already.

"The handicap is this: I must choose paper. If I choose rock or scissors, I lose."

"Don't think I didn't notice how you worded that," Stephanie accuses. "Both of us losing does not constitute a tie. What happens then?"

"Good question. I've handicapped myself pretty hard here, so if we both lose I'd prefer we make the wager a lot smaller. I don't want to give up the cell phone, but I'll share ownership with you. You can use it for up to 50% of each day if we're both in need of it, though I expect we can be flexible about that in practice, and you'll have half of its value to wager with in the future. I'll also show you how to use it."

"And in exchange?"

"I need a favor. We've been on the road for a while, getting here, and we're just about out of supplies. I've got this and not much else; Shiro's got nothing but the dress."

Shiro, blank-faced, does a little twirl with the dress.

"You need a place to stay?"

"We're only here for the tournament."

"I assent! Let's do this."

Stephanie drops the thread of conversation entirely to focus on the game, though she maintains eye contact with Sora.

In any normal game of Rock Paper Scissors, there is a three-in-nine chance of drawing and going on to a second round. Unlike a normal game of Rock Paper Scissors, only one of those options in this scenario leads to a second round: both of them choosing paper. In other words, a tie where Sora does not lose. If they both choose scissors or rock, Stephanie comes out ahead; if she plays paper and loses to scissors or plays scissors and loses to rock, the game ends and they each make the lesser forfeit.

Stephanie is confident that, if both players pick randomly, she has a five-in-nine chance of winning outright, with an additional two-in-nine chance of a very favorable outcome. Sora obviously did not pick these rules in order to handicap himself; he expects to advantage himself with them. What does he think he can get here?

Well, he might be planning to cheat. That's the first thing you say to street hustlers when the ball isn't under the cup where you expect it, you say they've slid it off the table and have an extra hidden up their sleeve because everyone's see that trick before.

Can he cheat at Rock Paper Scissors? Expert players win more often than chance, but Stephanie doesn't think that skill extends to winning a game like this…

…can he cheat using the cell phone? Most possible ways such an artifact could work don't help in this scenario, but it occurs to Stephanie that if it enables the user to read minds or see into the future then she is definitely not going to win.

"Do you mind giving her the cell phone before we play?"

Shiro takes the cell phone and stows it in one of the pockets of her dress.

Her dress has pockets???

No, focus. Cheating is not in evidence, so Sora expects to win legitimately. Stephanie thinks there's an angle there, actually: while he only has a one-in-nine chance of winning outright, he's specified a separate wager to settle in the event of a draw, which gives him a three-in-nine chance of coming out with what he wants.

The tie wager makes a lot of sense. These two look homeless and tired, like they've walked to Elkia City from a farm twenty kilometers away, and Stephanie infers that they haven't got enough money to book a room in the city while people are streaming in from across the country to compete for the crown.

They do have an artifact, but Sora won't want to use it as a bargaining chip. He's here to play poker, armed with an artifact that assists with playing poker somehow (the interface suggested the purpose of the cell phone was more general  but Stephanie isn't thinking about that while her attention is on this game). Selling it would gain him a room and lose him the tournament. So he needs to partially sell it, somehow…

That's his goal. He plays for a tie where they both lose, gives partial ownership of the cell phone to someone he knows for a fact isn't going to play in the tournament, and goes on to play poker while Stephanie supports him and his sister instead of opposing them.

Despite various claims to the contrary, Stephanie is neither a sucker nor an easy mark. She's not going to give Sora what he wants when she could just as easily win.

If she plays rock, she has a two-in-three chance of winning. If she plays scissors, she also has a two-in-three chance of winning. Paper only has a one-in-three chance – if Sora plays paper as well, he doesn't lose, so instead of a lose-lose scenario they have a rematch as normal. Stephanie isn't sure whether to call it a fifty-fifty chance of winning or losing or call it a one-third chance each of winning, losing, or other. Regardless, she's not going to choose paper.

Realistically, her options are rock or scissors. And, since Sora will lose if he doesn't pick paper, he clearly wants to make it harder for her to pick rock. His strategy, therefore, is to get her to pick scissors, to which he will respond with rock, thus ending the game in a tie. So the winning pick is rock.