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games of no chance
it couldn't have happened to two nicer people
Permalink Mark Unread

It's 8:00 AM.

The time is inescapable, leering at him from every direction: the menu on his computer, the lock screen of his phone, the baleful digital clock on the nightstand. His circadian rhythm, deprived of sunlight by the blackout curtains over the window, is tentatively informing him that it might be late in the evening. He ignores it, because he already keeps to a dozen different schedules in life and doesn't feel like adding any more.

They've won two regional fighting game tournaments in the past week, enough to make rent for the month and pay for utilities. Nothing that needs doing urgently, according to his calendar, which gives him a while to relax. He pulls up a flashcard app to go through the next batch of Jeopardy! study material; then, almost as an afterthought, opens an online casino on another monitor to play a few tables of poker at the same time. Sleep can wait.

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Shiro lies on the floor, surrounded by discarded clothing and bedsheets no one has bothered to fold. She rolls over on her back, groping blindly under the desk with one hand until she finds a box of cereal bars, the kind that advertise themselves as nutritionally complete. Down the hatch. Crumbs spill everywhere, adding to the crumbs already on the floor and nestled in the cracks of the laptop keyboard.

"Want one?" she asks through a mouthful of food.

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"He was the first emperor of— who was Napoleon Bonaparte? Good. This marsupial is native to North America… what is the opossum? Good. The Red Auerbach Trophy is awarded to— oh, no thank you. I'm not hungry right now." And he has pocket aces on table four, which gives him an 85.18% chance of knocking out the other guy and finishing the round.

Permalink Mark Unread

"When was the last time you ate?"

Gaming is a low-risk activity, as these things go, but people have died while glued to their screens, ignoring petty mortal concerns like calories and bathroom breaks.

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"A few hours ago," Sora says vaguely. "Hey, this guy reraised me before the flop and his stats are tight-aggressive. His range here is high pocket pairs, probably kings or queens since I have half the aces. Bet I can get him to shove on the turn if I play passively."

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Shiro pelts him with a granola bar. It bounces off his head and lands on the desk. "If you pull a Snowly, it doesn't matter how famous you are, no one is going to your funeral. We're anonymous."

Permalink Mark Unread

"Not even you?"

He eats the granola bar, not really expecting an answer. The minds behind 『____』 are as codependent as they come. If he dies, he suspects Shiro will cope by never leaving the apartment again. FIDE will have to send her awards in the mail.

Permalink Mark Unread

Shiro doesn't think of a response to that before the laptop dings, flashing the contents of a new email delivered to their joint account.

The only thing in the email is a link. Someone is inviting『____』to play a game of rapid chess.

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"Aren't spam filters supposed to reject emails with nothing in the sender field?"

Permalink Mark Unread

"Probably. Might be a glitch. What does it say?"

Permalink Mark Unread

Just a chess.com link. It's a rapid game, with each player given fifteen minutes on the clock plus an additional ten seconds with every move made. Reasonably common in online games, even at a high level.

To the side of the board is an unused chat interface and the names of the players in the match.

____ (2740) vs. Tet (3110)

Permalink Mark Unread

"Well, that explains the email mystery. Someone's cracked the chess.com database and manually set their Elo all the way up in CPU-land."

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"That's bizarre." He sighs. "Could be someone gearing up to troll us with a chess engine, could be a computer programmer with an ego and something to prove. Hard to say."

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"Only one way to find out."

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"Give 'em hell, Shiro."

[ Skip → ]

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Shiro moves the king's pawn forward to e4 and is utterly unsurprised when black responds with c5. The Sicilian Defense is one of the most common chess openings, letting black counter white's starting advantage by quickly aiming attacks at the squares in the center of the board. Shiro has played this game thousands of times. She has read entire books on it. Sometimes it haunts her dreams. She already knows what to do.

Permalink Mark Unread

On move five black advances the g-file pawn one square, opening the way for the bishop to move out and bite into the two knights Shiro has on the same diagonal.

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Black has clearly blundered by initiating the Dragon Variation. Not because it is a losing proposition for black, at least in theory, but because it is a line of play that both Shiro and Sora have studied extensively and can play with their eyes closed. Mostly because the name appealed to them when they were younger, admittedly, but still. The next few moves are almost predetermined, leaving the black king apparently safe in one corner and the white king primed to castle to freedom in the opposite corner.

Nothing could be further from the truth. In just a few moves, both of them are going to be fighting on the offense with everything they've got.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8      
7    
6        
5                
4            
3          
2    
1        
  1. e4 c5
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
Permalink Mark Unread

"I'm thinking bishop to c4. It delays castling but it gives me absolute control over d5, maybe lets me get in an early win down the h-file if black starts playing too defensively."

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"What year is this, 1965? The Yugoslav attack isn't a slam dunk for white anymore. Figuring out how to handle this position as black is practically the first thing they did with Deep Blue after it beat Kasparov."

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"Whatever, nerd."

She plays the Yugoslav attack. Black responds by chasing it away while Shiro castles queenside, losing tempo by maneuvering the knight into position and giving her time to advance the h pawn. It doesn't free up her rook immediately, but if she sacrifices it she can put black into a worse position and completely open the right-hand side of the board for her rooks and queen to harass the king.

Analysis
a b c d e f g h
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
  1. e4 c5
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4
Permalink Mark Unread

The next few moves are brutal. Black finally attacks with the knight, forking white's queen and bishop. White takes it off the board with the white square bishop, and black recaptures with the rook. The planned pawn sacrifice does nothing, as black no longer needs the other knight to guard the center of the board and can take it without undermining the king's defense. White advances one pawn to chase the knight back, and a second pawn to chase the rook back as well. At the end it looks remarkably balanced, both sides armed with open files to launch attacks and relatively strong defensive positions.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8        
7  
6          
5                
4          
3        
2          
1          
  1. e4 c5
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
Permalink Mark Unread

"Hey, can you take a look at this with me?"

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Well, the challenge was for 『____』, not just Shiro. He gives up on memorizing trivia for the day and flops onto the floor next to his sister. Both players have thirteen minutes left on the clock; plenty of time to strategize.

"I see what you're going for. Queen to h2 and then to h7, right? Can't do that yet, black has too much control."

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"You think we should simplify first? Trade a knight for a knight, they move the f pawn over somehow… I like it. It lets their queen out, but I can work with that."

She does so. On move 20 her queen makes the inevitable transition to an attacking position, and black responds with a defensive queen move in turn.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8          
7      
6        
5                
4            
3          
2          
1          
  1. e4 c5
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
Permalink Mark Unread

"Is it a bot?" Sora wonders out loud, while both players noodle with their pawn structure. The traditional way of telling is by looking at the amount of time between moves – quick, evenly spaced, no matter whether the move is obvious or devious. It takes the same amount of time to use the computer on each move regardless of how difficult the choice would be for a human.

It's a great heuristic for anonymous online games, but for someone who is tacitly claiming to be the greatest chess player of all time it's not quite as informative. The first eight moves of the game were directly out of the book, and the rest of the development was standard up until the knight and the bishop were lost. It could still be a grandmaster with a weird sense of humor and a friend who works for chess.com.

Permalink Mark Unread

"No."

Shiro doesn't bother to justify this opinion, and as the seconds tick by it becomes apparent that she doesn't have to. Black is thinking through the next move.

Permalink Mark Unread

Black really wants to play pawn to h5 and make the white queen go away, but it's not going to be that easy. White would capture it with the g4 pawn, giving a crushing advantage on that half of the board. Black would then have to launch the c-file rook attack early, maybe winning white's dark square bishop but ultimately losing their rook, which is the only piece with any aggressive power at the moment. Black has already ruled out taking white's remaining knight, since doing that with the queen would be foolish and doing it with the bishop would give white yet another angle on attacking the king. There's really only one option here, and it's to let white take the h pawn and escape check by moving behind the bishop. With the king off the back rank, the rooks control key squares that white otherwise needs to get to checkmate.

Analysis
a b c d e f g h
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
Permalink Mark Unread

All according to plan. This isn't amateur hour.

Shiro moves the g4 pawn that black has kindly allowed to remain where it is forward, forcing black to move the queen diagonally to safety. The rook on the far end of the board joins the queen; black takes her other bishop but by capturing on a square that far across the board the black queen is helpless to intervene. She takes the hanging pawn with the rook as black moves its boxed-in rook over to support the bishop, and with pawn to f2 threatens to make the bishop's position completely untenable. It'll take a few moves to get it to f6, but she knows that black won't let that happen. Indeed, black captures on f5, which lets her bring the knight in on the action with a recapture. The evaluation bar in her imagination is already congratulating her on a job well done.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8            
7      
6            
5          
4              
3            
2              
1            
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5
Permalink Mark Unread

Black spends two minutes and thirty-five seconds thinking before playing queen to b3.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8            
7      
6            
5          
4              
3              
2              
1            
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qb3+
Permalink Mark Unread

"What?"

Permalink Mark Unread

Yeah, 'what?' is the correct response here. Shiro thinks the most likely explanation is that black misclicked and put the queen somewhere random. She waits for a moment to see if black requests a takeback.

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Nope, that's where it's supposed to be!

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Okay. The only move that doesn't pointlessly lose material is taking the queen with the pawn. Shiro is within milliseconds of executing that move when her brain catches up with her fingertips.

With that pawn out of the way, black is going to take her knight with the light square bishop, putting her in check again. With that pawn out of the way, the c-file rook blocks her escape to the right, and the dark square bishop blocks forwards and left. She has one square to flee to.

Shiro's Thought Process
  a b c d e f g h
8            
7        
6            
5          
4              
3              
2              
1              
Permalink Mark Unread

If she's lucky, black will immediately take the rook. She can put the king in check with her other rook, force it to back away, and recapture the bishop with her queen. That's a losing position for black: the king will be in a terrible position, and she'll have a material advantage.

Shiro's Thought Process: Optimistic Path
  a b c d e f g h
8            
7          
6            
5            
4              
3              
2              
1              

That's looking really unlikely at this point. If Shiro were black, she'd be putting white in check with the same c-file rook attack from move 13, which forces the king to a3. Then black can move the king to safety on e7. That line takes the king and the c-file rook away from the rook on g8, which white then takes, but then…

Shiro's Thought Process: Realistic Path
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7          
6            
5            
4              
3            
2              
1              

…the bishops are free to attack.

Permalink Mark Unread

The bishops are free to attack, you say? Oh my.

Black checks, lets white take the rook, and proceeds to brutally hunt the white king across the board with both bishops until it's trapped in the a8 corner. If not for the black pawn on d5, bishop to e4 would herd Shiro into the most spectacular checkmate of all time. As it stands, this still lets black take white's remaining rook, leaving white with three pawns and a queen versus black's three pawns, two bishops, one rook, and a serious positional advantage.

This game is no longer white's to win. How's that for a comeback?

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8            
7          
6              
5          
4              
3              
2                
1              
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
Permalink Mark Unread

"That's insane," Sora mutters. "No human plays like that. How did it find that move?"

Permalink Mark Unread

"Anyone can pull a miracle out of their butt if they set Stockfish's depth to forty. I, uh, I see a lot of lines I could play but none that look especially promising."

Permalink Mark Unread

Sora thinks for a moment.

"This game is all offense. Black wants to keep us on the back foot until we're done for, so we need to seize the initiative and use it to buy some space. Take the free pawn, get the king out of the corner, then turn the tables and check the king back until all of black's pieces are on the right half of the board."

Permalink Mark Unread

"You think that'll work against someone whose Elo is over three thousand?"

Shiro does take the pawn though, and when the bishop moves to safety on g7 she muscles the king out of the corner.

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"If this is a real person, they're focused on hounding the king and might not be worried about our response in the next move. They're fifteen moves ahead down some endgame line right now, looking for a checkmate. If we shuffle the pieces it'll break their concentration, and they don't have enough time left to come up with another move as awesome as that queen sacrifice. Unless they're using a chess engine, in which case it doesn't count."

Permalink Mark Unread

Can't argue with that logic. Black moves their rook away from the king, and Shiro responds with six checks in a row. By the end of it, black's pieces are completely rearranged and white's queen controls almost the entire board.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7            
6              
5        
4              
3              
2                
1              
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
Permalink Mark Unread

"You're in check and you've left your g pawn hanging."

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"Ha ha, very helpful. I'm just upset that I have to put the king back in the corner."

Sora is joking, of course. Black has to move the rook to protect it, issuing a check, but once it's off the seventh row there's nothing stopping the king from capturing black's a pawn. With the a and b pawns out of the way, white's own a and b pawns can slowly trundle towards a promotion. Black now has two objectives: keep the pressure on the white king, and stop the pawns from advancing.

Permalink Mark Unread

Wrong. Black has three objectives: stop the pawns, eventually get checkmate, and keep white from finding any nasty attacks with that queen of hers. There's one on f3, skewering the king to the rook and forking to attack the light square bishop. Black moves it to e2 preemptively.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7              
6              
5        
4              
3              
2              
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
Permalink Mark Unread

Ah, but you see, that only advances one of black's aims. Shiro gets the pawn threat started with b4, and when black plays bishop to h5 to set up another offensive skirmish she takes the b pawn with her king as well. The bishop orbits around to f7, attacking the queen from the safety of the rook's shadow, but the f3 skewer is still available and Shiro has no qualms about using it.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7              
6              
5          
4            
3              
2                
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
  50. b4 Bh5
  51. Kxb6 Bf7
  52. Qf3+
Permalink Mark Unread

Charming. Black interposes the bishop. White can't keep up the pressure forever, and when the queen retreats to the king's side the rook makes check on the b file. Getting the king back on the sidelines is only half the goal; the other half is finding a way to take out those pawns. Including the g pawn, thank you very much.

At this point there are a few good moves white can make. Black is happy to let the clock run out for white, who by this point has a sizeable time advantage, and take the time to think on the opponent's turn.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7            
6              
5              
4          
3                
2                
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
  50. b4 Bh5
  51. Kxb6 Bf7
  52. Qf3+ Bf4
  53. Qc6 Rb8+
  54. Ka7 Kxg5
Permalink Mark Unread

Sora has no idea whether this opponent is using a chess engine. His best guess is that one was used to find the queen sacrifice and the rest is natural play. There's no reason for a human chess player to let the time run out as badly as black has. Now's not the time to get distracted, however.

Permalink Mark Unread

"Do I shove the light square bishop off with queen to d7 and get his rook to follow, or do I check the king into the middle of the board from queen at g2 and play b5 while his rook is still there?"

Permalink Mark Unread

"This guy will voluntarily move his rook when pigs fly. You need to force it."

Permalink Mark Unread

"I can do that."

So she uses the first line, and when the bishop retreats to h5 the rook follows to its protection at e8. The b pawn makes its way up to the sixth rank, at which point black pins it to the king with the dark square bishop. She moves the queen to a better position with a check, then moves the a pawn into a supporting position just in case.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7              
6              
5          
4              
3              
2                
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
  50. b4 Bh5
  51. Kxb6 Bf7
  52. Qf3+ Bf4
  53. Qc6 Rb8+
  54. Ka7 Kxg5
  55. Qd7 Bh5
  56. b5 Re8
  57. b6 Be3
  58. Qd5+ Kh4
  59. a5
Permalink Mark Unread

Black is considering draws. Specifically, black is going to threaten a stalemate, forcing the white king into a8 yet again and hopefully keeping it there with two of its minor pieces while the third one harries the pawns. Check check check check check.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7              
6              
5            
4          
3                
2                
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
  50. b4 Bh5
  51. Kxb6 Bf7
  52. Qf3+ Bf4
  53. Qc6 Rb8+
  54. Ka7 Kxg5
  55. Qd7 Bh5
  56. b5 Re8
  57. b6 Be3
  58. Qd5+ Kh4
  59. a5 Re7+
  60. Ka8 Re8+
  61. Kc8 Bg4+
  62. Kb8 Bf4+
Permalink Mark Unread

"Why not go for d8?" Sora asks, when Shiro moves the king left instead of right. "Black moves the rook to d7, queen takes, bishop takes, king takes, the last bishop can't stop both pawns from promoting."

Sora's Thought Process
  a b c d e f g h
8                
7              
6              
5              
4              
3              
2                
1                
Permalink Mark Unread

"Why on earth would black go for that?"

Permalink Mark Unread

"Running low on time, dangerously obsessed with making checks, probably doesn't have very many other lines prepared for that situation, doesn't hurt if they decline the gambit…"

Permalink Mark Unread

Sora is more right than he knows, because once the white king is safely ensconced in a8 once more the black player makes a mistake. Not a huge mistake, but at this stage of the game a single misstep can cost everything. The strongest move in this position is bishop to e2, which prevents the a pawn from advancing unless white gives up everything else to make it happen. Instead, black plays king to g3, to stop the queen from going to the h file and bullying the king into yet another indefensible position.

Permalink Mark Unread

FINALLY, A MISTAKE!

Shiro immediately plays queen to g8, pinning the light square bishop to the king. Not only does this prevent e2, it also prevents f3, a check that would probably force her to pin her own pawn.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8            
7              
6              
5              
4            
3              
2                
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
  50. b4 Bh5
  51. Kxb6 Bf7
  52. Qf3+ Bf4
  53. Qc6 Rb8+
  54. Ka7 Kxg5
  55. Qd7 Bh5
  56. b5 Re8
  57. b6 Be3
  58. Qd5+ Kh4
  59. a5 Re7+
  60. Ka8 Re8+
  61. Kc8 Bg4+
  62. Kb8 Bf4+
  63. Ka8 Kg3
  64. Qg8
Permalink Mark Unread

Uh.

With just seconds left black targets the pawn with rook to e5, aiming to stop the promotion threat now that the bishops are neutralized.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8            
7                
6              
5            
4            
3              
2                
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
  50. b4 Bh5
  51. Kxb6 Bf7
  52. Qf3+ Bf4
  53. Qc6 Rb8+
  54. Ka7 Kxg5
  55. Qd7 Bh5
  56. b5 Re8
  57. b6 Be3
  58. Qd5+ Kh4
  59. a5 Re7+
  60. Ka8 Re8+
  61. Kc8 Bg4+
  62. Kb8 Bf4+
  63. Ka8 Kg3
  64. Qg8 Re5
Permalink Mark Unread

There is no way a bot played that move. Machines don't panic like that. Rook to e5 is a terrible move, it doesn't stop a6 in the slightest.

Permalink Mark Unread

Should've played e6 first, sucker. Shiro covers both pawns with her king, and when the dark square bishop moves to reinforce the attack on the b pawn she moves the a pawn to the seventh rank, one step shy of a promotion. The rook takes the b pawn, of course, but once it's there it stands between the pawn and the enemy bishop, ironically keeping it safe.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7            
6              
5                
4              
3            
2                
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
  50. b4 Bh5
  51. Kxb6 Bf7
  52. Qf3+ Bf4
  53. Qc6 Rb8+
  54. Ka7 Kxg5
  55. Qd7 Bh5
  56. b5 Re8
  57. b6 Be3
  58. Qd5+ Kh4
  59. a5 Re7+
  60. Ka8 Re8+
  61. Kc8 Bg4+
  62. Kb8 Bf4+
  63. Ka8 Kg3
  64. Qg8 Re5
  65. a6 Re6
  66. Kb7 Be3
  67. a7 Rxb6+
Permalink Mark Unread

"And that's the game," Sora says happily. "Black can't win the pawn race now. Good work, Shiro."

Permalink Mark Unread

Once the white king moves to safety, black puts the rook on the a file to take out the pawn once it reaches the end and promotes. Unfortunately, that's going to happen on the next move anyways.

Black takes the newborn queen with the rook, and immediately loses it to white's queen. White now has a king and a queen versus black's king and two bishops.

Analysis
  a b c d e f g h
8              
7              
6                
5                
4              
3            
2                
1                
  1. e4 c6
  2. Nf3 d6
  3. d4 cxd4
  4. Nxd4 Nf6
  5. Nc3 g6
  6. Be3 Bg7
  7. f3 O-O
  8. Qd2 Nc6
  9. Bc4 Bd7
  10. O-O-O Rc8
  11. Bb3 Ne5
  12. h4 Nc4
  13. Bxc4 Rxc4
  14. h5 Nxh5
  15. g4 Nf6
  16. Kb1 Re8
  17. b3 Rc8
  18. Nd5 Nxd5
  19. exd5 e5
  20. dxe6 fxe6
  21. Qh2 Qf6
  22. a4 b6
  23. Qxh7+ Kf7
  24. g5 Qe5
  25. Rh6 Qxe3
  26. Rxg6 Rg8
  27. f4 d5
  28. f5 exf5
  29. Nxf5 Qxb3+
  30. cxb3 Bxf5+
  31. Ka2 Rc2+
  32. Ka3 Bxg6
  33. Rf1+ Ke7
  34. Qxg8 Bb2+
  35. Kb4 Bc3+
  36. Kb5 Bd3+
  37. Kc6 Be5+
  38. Kb7 Rc7+
  39. Ka8 Rxf1
  40. Qxd5 Bg7
  41. Kb8 Rd7
  42. Qe4+ Kf8
  43. Qf5+ Rf7
  44. Qc8+ Ke7
  45. Qc7+ Ke6
  46. Qc6+ Kf5
  47. Qd5+ Be5+
  48. Ka8 Rf8+
  49. Kxa7 Be2
  50. b4 Bh5
  51. Kxb6 Bf7
  52. Qf3+ Bf4
  53. Qc6 Rb8+
  54. Ka7 Kxg5
  55. Qd7 Bh5
  56. b5 Re8
  57. b6 Be3
  58. Qd5+ Kh4
  59. a5 Re7+
  60. Ka8 Re8+
  61. Kc8 Bg4+
  62. Kb8 Bf4+
  63. Ka8 Kg3
  64. Qg8 Re5
  65. a6 Re6
  66. Kb7 Be3
  67. a7 Rxb6+
  68. Kc7 Ra6
  69. a8Q Rxa8
  70. Qx8a
Permalink Mark Unread

And, as everyone knows, queen beats two bishops in the endgame.

Permalink Mark Unread

Black resigns.

Permalink Mark Unread

"Queen's too powerful, needs to be nerfed."

Permalink Mark Unread

Shiro types 'ggez' into the chat, then hugs Sora fiercely. Now that the game is over she notices that she has apparently spent the last ten minutes breathing hard and sweating heavily, despite the fact that the air conditioner is cranked up as high as it can go. Maybe she should have a bath after all that.

…nah.

Permalink Mark Unread

Sora does not love his sister's lackadaisical approach to personal hygiene, but he's not going to hold it against her. Everyone has their faults.

Permalink Mark Unread

The chess.com window dings. No rematch offered, but there's a response in the chat box.

> good game

> have you ever felt like the world is unfair

Permalink Mark Unread

Sora replies while continuing to hug Shiro with one arm.

> even infants in the womb know that life is unfair

Permalink Mark Unread

> unfair the way a poorly designed game is unfair

> billions of players, trillions of moves

> no one explains the rules, because no one knows the rules

> no way to win or lose, just clocks that spin on for no reason

Permalink Mark Unread

> it sure feels that way some days

> altho

> existential ennui is p bad, but aimbotting in counterstrike is up there

Permalink Mark Unread

> lol

> so, hypothetically

> if there were a world that was also a game

> a board game, with rules and goals

> would that be awesome or what

Permalink Mark Unread

"That would be the greatest, not gonna lie. We would kick so much butt in boardgameland."

Permalink Mark Unread

He chuckles.

> yeah that would rock

> why, you got one of those lying around?

Permalink Mark Unread

And now the walls are melting! Beyond the borders of the room, uncanny darkness smothers their tiny island in gloom. The lights flicker and turn red. Sparks drip from the surface of the computer monitor as it fizzles and dies.

Permalink Mark Unread

Oh dear, that's not supposed to happen.

Permalink Mark Unread

"LO, I AM OMEGA, THE FLAWLESS PREDICTOR THAT WAS FORETOLD. I HAVE ARRIVED TO OFFER YOU A CHOICE!"

Permalink Mark Unread

Shiro is panicking, which means he isn't hallucinating this, which means it's also time for him to panic. Sora starts grabbing everything within reach that might be useful in the next five minutes: laptop, cellphone, room keys, extra cereal bars, pocket knife, change of socks.

Permalink Mark Unread

"JUST KIDDING, YOU ALREADY MADE YOUR CHOICE!"

Everything disappears in the blink of an eye, and now they are somewhere else. To be more specific, they are now in free fall 20,000 feet over the surface of an alien planet.

Permalink Mark Unread

Ah, beans.

Permalink Mark Unread

There with them in the sky is an entity that resembles a young boy in a red beret and hoodie. If it weren't for his eyes he could've passed as an ordinary human tumbling to his doom, but with them he cannot, for his eyes blaze with impossible colors in a hundred shifting hues.

Permalink Mark Unread

Huh. You don't see that every day.

Permalink Mark Unread

"Welcome to Disboard!" says the stranger. He speaks at a conversational volume, but in his voice is the bang of the starting gun, the roar of the crowd, the cheers of victory and the cries of defeat. He's perfectly audible over the wind rushing past on the way down and the sound of Shiro screaming her lungs out.

Permalink Mark Unread

Sora considers a few different personas that might be useful to adopt during this conversation, and immediately discards all of them. The power distance between this thing and himself is too great. Better to behave predictably, just in case it's the type to get offended by social manipulation.

"Aren't you supposed to offer us a cup of tea?"

Permalink Mark Unread

"You're thinking of someone else," the boy says. "My name is Tet! This is my world, and I've already told you the important bits. Still, we have a minute or two at terminal velocity before we hit the ground, so I've got some stuff to offer you. First, would you rather be able to survive the fall, or—"

Permalink Mark Unread

"YES THAT ONE PLEASE AAAAAAAAAAAH!!!"

Permalink Mark Unread

"Alllllllrighty then! Next, would you rather know what the rules are, or who your opponents are?"

Permalink Mark Unread

That one's tricky. It'd be nice to know more about the folks who have it out for them, especially if they're not going to come out and say so to Sora's face. On the other hand, he's pretty confident that he can pick up on the general gist of things in that department, whereas the magic system in this world could have hard-to-probe corner cases that only ancient wizards have explored.

"Tell us the rules."

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"Sure! In Disboard, there's no murder, no violence, no theft, no war. We're all libertarians here, if you like. Everyone has to obey the non-aggression principle. If you need to resolve a conflict, you just play a game!

"Anyone can wager anything they want, as long as all participants agree that their wagers are of equal value. The outcome of the game determines what happens to the stuff you wagered. No takesies-backsies! No cheating either; if you get caught cheating, you forfeit.

"Oh, and you can play in groups too. Groups can nominate an absolute authority to manage their affairs in a game, so if you want to take someone's village you don't have to go door-to-door challenging people to games. The mayor will suffice! Of course, as the challenged party, the mayor can pick the game if they want, or play with a champion.

"If you're the absolute authority representing an entire species— you know, I don't think that's part of the rules. Nevermind!

"Okay, we've got time for one more. Would you rather know why you're here, or why you're here?"

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Sora feels affronted. His face is trying to make the right expression for 'affronted', but at this speed he suspects it's more of a goofy open-mouthed look.

"I already know why you want us. We're the greatest. Why do you want us?"

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"You're here to do whatever you want! But, if I'm being honest…"

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"…I'm kind of hoping you win."

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Sora and Shiro strike the earth at full speed. All of their gravity-imparted kinetic energy at the moment of impact vanishes into nothingness, leaving them unharmed and lying in a heap. At last, there is silence. The young boy in the beret is nowhere to be seen.

 

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Shiro seems physically okay but mentally like she would prefer to lie on the ground and hyperventilate for a bit, so it falls to Sora to explore their immediate surroundings in this brave new world.

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They find themselves atop a grassy bluff that commands a spectacular view of a sprawling landscape. A jagged canyon lit from below with pulsating aquamarine light runs from one horizon to the other, surrounded by meadows and copses and tiny valleys. A sudden gust of wind carries a blast of thick gold pollen over the bluff and down into the meadows, over a nearby stream and off into the distance. At the very limit are gargantuan towers built like chess pieces, a rook and a bishop, rising from the earth like cylindrical mountains.

A red moon, much larger than Earth's moon, hangs low in the sky. The geography of its surface is close enough to make out details, including bright lights and intricate formations that look suspiciously like cities. Also in the sky is a giant green orb, which straddles the line between something very large and far away and something much smaller and a whole heck of a lot closer. The sun is a little brighter than the one he's used to.

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Okay, but how about signs of civilization?

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Yeah, there's a road that terminates nearby on the side of the hill and leads away into the wilderness.

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"Breath of the Wild chic, very cool."

With that settled, he takes a minute to enjoy the scenery while Shiro catches her breath. He hasn't been outside in… a while. It's much nicer than he remembers.

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Shiro decides that it's time to stop hyperventilating and get up.

 

She's gonna do it.

 

Aaaaaany second now.

 

Come on, if you don't get up then Sora might leave without you!

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Shiro gets up.

The view is just as breathtaking for her as it is for Sora, although Shiro is under-dressed for the occasion and feels a bit chilly. She offers Sora her hand, and he takes it.

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"So, game world, huh? How about you go punch a tree while I look for a flock of sheep?"

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"Not that kind of game world. Weren't you listening?"

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"Nope. Other kind of game world, other kind of game world… menu! Settings! Stats! Transform! Uh… henshin!"

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"We need to get out of here. No rush, presumably, but I don't have a ton of food on me right now."

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"I have a bunch of energy bars, and I would trade all of them for a pair of pants," Shiro informs him. "Oh, a road that conveniently leads out of the middle of nowhere! How very Soulslike."

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Sora really really really hopes that this is a Legend of Zelda road and not a Dark Souls road.

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Shiro yawns. "What time is it, bro?"

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He doesn't need to check his phone for this one. "Time for an adventure, sis."

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He steps off the path to take a leak behind a nearby tree during a rest. They're… not out of shape, exactly, but neither are they the kind of people who go for long walks in the evenings, and Shiro isn't wearing shoes, so they're not going as fast as they possibly could be.

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A bush giggles while his back is turned to it.

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It's not literally impossible that Disboard has a native species of laughing plants (the tree he's facing has bark with deep violet speckles and oddly squarish leaves), but he's not betting on it. Time to hurry it up.

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Shiro is leaning against a tree on the path when he gets back.

"Who's hiding over there? I heard someone laughing."

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"What makes you think it wasn't me? Apart from me being a baritone, that is."

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She smacks her forehead in mock surprise. "Of course, I forgot about the canister of helium in your pocket! How silly of me."

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"What does that mean?"

The speaker is a tiny green-skinned humanoid, with vines curling through her hair and a pair of diaphanous wings sitting on the bough of a tree. It wasn't there just a moment ago.

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"What does what mean?"

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"Helium! Heee-liii-uuum. I've never heard of it before. Sounds spooky."

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"Helium is a thin gas that raises the timbre of your voice when you breathe a little of it. If I used helium and laughed I'd sound more like you."

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"And what happens if you breathe a lot of helium?"

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"Then you pass out and maybe die."

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"Hmm," the fairy says suspiciously. "That sort of clicks in my head. You're not lying to me, but…"

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"Clicks in your head?"

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"Oh, I don't know any languages, I just use magic. Suuuuper convenient, but when you run into a word that doesn't mean anything you've ever heard before you still have to learn what it means. Otherwise it just sits there as a bunch of syllables. Heeeeeeeeliiiiiiiiuuuuuum. He he he."

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Languages were not on Shiro's mind until just now. People in magical destination worlds ought to have the decency of speaking English, or at least one of the United Nations official languages. Can you imagine a version of The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe where Tumnus and Aslan and the White Witch each spoke different languages? Preposterous. That's why C.S. Lewis wrote portal fantasy and J.R.R. Tolkien didn't.

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Sora is thinking along the same lines. This is going to be an incredibly lame isekai tale if he has to spend six months learning a new language through immersion.

"I don't suppose you could cast that translation spell for us?"

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"Pffft. I'm not borrowing that many lilims just to do you a favor. Go find another sorceress."

The word 'lilims' is unfamiliar to both Sora and Shiro, but as soon as they consider the obvious hypothesis (a unit for magic) there's a small click and the partial definition sticks.

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Fascinating. At this point the socially acceptable thing to do is offer a trade. Sora still has some gadgets on him that might be worth the trade. They might even be worth more in barter now than later on – it's not like the charge will last forever.

But the god of this world brought them here to play games, and playing games is what『____』 came here to do.

"No? Then let's play a game," he says.

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The fairy rolls her eyes and drops out of the tree like an animal with purely decorative wings.

"All right, if my wager is casting the language spell for you, then yours is ninety days of faithful service."

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"That sounds extreme," Shiro says mildly.

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"Oh yeah? Tough. That's what I think you're worth."

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Anyone can wager anything they want, as long as all participants agree that their wagers are of equal value.

So the rules aren't just for show. Hopefully this only applies to the table stakes and not betting on individual rounds, or else they're going to have to throw a lot of gambling theory out the window.

"Is there any way we could go in for less? Maybe a temporary version of the spell?"

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"I can borrow the energy from you, if you let me," the fairy offers. "Humans don't use magic for anything, it's not like you'll miss it."

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"That sounds reasonable to me."

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"For your wager, I want one week of faithful service."

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"Please stop asking for that."

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"You're really making this easy on me, huh," the fairy says bitterly. "Fine, what else… hey, what's that gown you're wearing made of? I don't recognize the fabric."

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"Cotton-polyester."

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"Your gown versus my language spell cast with your lilims," the fairy offers.

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It's an unwashed $17.00 sundress from Walmart. It's also the only article of clothing Shiro is wearing, and apart from the bits and bobs in the pockets it's the only thing she owns anymore.

"I accept," she tells the fairy.

Shiro is no coward.

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The fairy nods. "I'll choose the game this time, humans. It's one-on-one, so one of you is sitting out. No intervening."

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This is not standard operating procedure for『____』for two-player games, but at the moment Shiro is exhausted. The adrenaline boost from falling out of the sky is fading fast. Sora's a big boy, he can handle himself.

"I'm gonna have a nap," she announces, and promptly lies down on the side of the road.

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Sora has been voluntold. That's fine, it's his turn anyways. When the fairy gestures for him to come over and sit down he obliges.

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"We're gonna eat some berries," the fairy informs him cheerfully. As she speaks she reaches into the mass of vines that constitute her hair and starts pulling out individual berries, which she drops on the ground between them.

"We take turns. Choose a pile, eat as many berries as you want from that pile, then pass the turn. If there are no berries left to eat, you lose. Got it?"

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"Are these berries edible for humans?"

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"I've seen humans eat them before and they seemed fine. Sometimes they ask for berries as wagers. If you're really scared I'll hand-feed 'em to you."

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Now why would that matter— right, because violence is against the rules. Presumably she won't be able to put poison directly in his mouth, or at least she thinks she won't.

"Thank you for the reassurance. I'd offer you the same, but you'd likely be immune to being poisoned by yourself, if indeed you were poisonous."

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There are now three piles of berries on the ground. The first is a pile of fourteen light pink berries, the second is a pile of nine pastel orange berries, and the third is a pile of two jet black berries. If you can call 'two' a pile, that is.

"You go first," says the fairy.

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Up until this point Sora harbored a nascent fear that Disboard was populated exclusively by people who were absolute fiends at gaming. That fear is now assuaged.

There's a fairly straightforward way to calculate winning positions in this game: convert each number into binary and XOR each column of bits together. If the result isn't zero at the start of your turn, remove berries from any column until it is. As long as the result is zero at the end of your turn, you can force a win.

Shiro has no problem doing bitwise XOR operations on the fly in her head, but Sora prefers the easier method of decomposing the numbers into powers of two, cancelling pairs, and adding the remainders.

pink orange black
14 9 2
23 + 22 + 21 23 + 20 21

Cancelling the 8s and the 2s leaves 5, which means that perfect play guarantees the win to whoever goes first.

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This is immensely suspicious. If Sora were playing against a street hustler he would bet dollars to donuts that the point was to cheat with sleight of hand or distract him with the calculations while an accomplice pickpocket stole his wallet.

However, in this particular situation, it's actually more likely that the fairy is just ignorant. No one can steal his wallet – theft isn't just against the law, it's against the rules. He doesn't even have a wallet! More to the point, people played nim for centuries before anyone published the math of the game. He has no strong reason to believe that a forest spirit on an alien planet enjoys recreational mathematics as much as The Summoned Math Hero's Older Brother.

Plus, it looks like she picked her hair-vines clean. Perfectly adequate explanation for the number of berries on offer.

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There's still a little wiggle room for useful strategy. Sora decides to go slowly, keep the game away from any board states that the fairy might have memorized in case there's a plan to cheat.

"I'll take three of the pink ones," he says, around one second after the offer to go first.

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"Open up!"

The fairy scoops up three pink berries and delicately feeds them to Sora.

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The berries taste sweet and minty. Nom nom nom.

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"Feed me one of the orange ones?"

This is accompanied by a wink and a bashful smile.

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The game is only on move two and already it's taken a turn for the lascivious. If this is a distraction tactic it's poorly timed: Shiro is ten feet away and probably still awake. Still, he did offer to reciprocate. He leans forward—

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It's easy to slip into a fugue state when you're gaming. Your awareness of the room around you goes away, leaving nothing but the world inside the monitor. Sora feels… whatever the opposite of that is, like he's sitting in a desk chair and controlling himself with a keyboard and mouse. The grass and the breeze and the sun in the sky are suddenly less real.

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"That's not very sporting of you," he says out loud, pressing the orange berry between the fairy's lips.

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"Mmmmmm, tashteh."

She swallows, grinning like the cat that's caught the canary. Orange berry juice drips from the corners of her lips. "Didn't violate the Covenant, did I? Your turn."

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The berries are psychoactive, and either Tet is a liar or surprise drugs don't count as "murder, violence, theft, or war". Surprise magical drugs; the chemicals in those berries won't be digested for at least fifteen minutes. No way to guess what the other two might be. That's just peachy.

Sora recalculates.

pink orange black
11 8 2
23 + 21 + 20 23 21

The best move here is another one of the pink berries, bringing the count back to zero. At least he doesn't have to worry about the other two yet.

"Another pink one."

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"Want me to keep feeding them to you?"

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Eh, why not. Bring it on, surprise drug fairy.

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The fairy is more than happy to feed him another berry! She helps herself to one of the pink berries as well, stuffing it in her mouth at the same time. She has to work a lot harder to eat this much food, given that her head is a a hundredth the size of Sora's, but for various reasons she's enjoying it a lot more.

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The dissociative feeling gets a little worse.

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"Hey, Shiro! These berries are—"

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"You're risking a forfeit!" the fairy says, giggling.

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Zzzzzzzzzzz.

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Maybe that was a stretch.

At this stage (9, 8, 2) there is exactly one move that lets him stay in the lead, and that's eating one of the two black berries.

"That one, if you don't mind."

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The fairy picks up one of the black berries and reaches up to place it on Sora's outstretched tongue.

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The berry tastes like licking a nine volt battery and goes down like a shot of rancid olive oil.

Then it gets much, much worse. The worst emotional sensation imaginable, concentrated into a small window of time. It's not painful but he wants to scream; he wants to vomit even though he's not nauseated. It was less awful the day his mother died and the day he realized his father didn't love him. Red-hot knives would be better than this; at least there would be pain and it would be happening for a reason. This is a repulsive system malfunction, his brain scrambling to find an explanation for why every emergency alarm is suddenly going off at once.

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"It took me years to produce that cultivar," the fairy says conversationally. "Lots of trial and error. Some things crossed the line, some things weren't up to snuff. I'm not sure if I can't make it better, but no one ever thinks their masterpiece is complete. Sometimes you just have to say it's done and enough."

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"How long does this last?" Sora asks stiffly. There's no physical reason for him to be holding himself tensely, but he feels like the alternative is flopping on his back and crying pathetically so tense it is.

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"Couple hours? I dunno, I'm not a human expert."

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Great. At least he's still got the board in the right state.

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Wait.

There's a misère variant of nim where the objective is to not be the last one to act. The powers of two count is the same for both versions, other than the penultimate move, so conceptually they're the same for someone who knows how the trick works.

But. Suppose you don't know how the trick works. You've memorized some of the board states near the end, maybe, but you don't know about the bitwise XOR. From your perspective, the game seems almost arbitrary, right up until you find yourself in familiar territory. Suppose you think it's going to happen, and the free variable in the equation isn't whether you win or lose, but whether you eat the last berry or feed it to your opponent.

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The fairy is mathematically incapable of winning the game, but she can make it so that the other black berry is the last one on the board. This is a major problem, because Sora would rather do LITERALLY ANYTHING other than eat it.

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"I'll have two of the orange ones now!"

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As cathartic as a screeching outburst would be at this juncture, Sora is still here to win. If he's made a mistake, it was not questioning the assumptions he brought with him from Earth. When in doubt, go fishing.

He picks up two orange berries and feeds them to the fairy.

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Yum!

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"So, where did these berries come from?"

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"Why? Interested in a bag of them to use later? I'm sure we could… work something out."

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"Tempting," says the part of Sora that's keeping track of the tone of the discussion. "But I am curious where they came from. Crops don't have magic, at least on the farms I've seen."

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"Huh? They're everywhere around here. Or, do you mean— yeah, everyone keeps telling me that humans are stupid, I don't know why I expected you to know. Here, look."

She picks up one pink berry and one orange berry. They fill each fist, like a human woman holding a pair of apples.

"See how they look similar to each other? That's because their plants came from the same plant, a few decades ago. We took clippings from the pink berry bushes that were good and unique, grew lots and lots of them, and then we bred them all with each other to get new ones! That's where new types of people and animals come from too. Isn't that cool?"

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Sora is incapable of feeling insulted by the fairy explaining trait inheritance to him like he's a toddler. Mostly because he already feels maximally bad.

Hopefully. He doesn't want to imagine what eating the second berry would feel like.

He redoes the count in his head

pink orange black
9 6 1
23+20 22+ 21 20

He needs to eat two more of the light pink berries (7 = 22 + 21 + 20) to stay the course. Still no way for the fairy to win unless he gives up, and giving up isn't in 『____』's repertoire.

… that might be workable.

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"Pass me two of the pink ones," he says, and stands up.

Standing up is an ordeal. He continues to not feel nausea or pain, but the distress is overwhelming. Part of the reason he's still functioning is the firm belief that nothing will help, because if curling up into a ball and whimpering had even the slightest chance of helping he would be curl up and whimper.

Once he's up… everything is still terrible. But at least it's terrible and he's on his feet. That's progress.

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The fairy takes off, fluttering after him at head height with two of the light pink berries cradled in her arms.

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There are a lot of unrecognizable plants out here. In addition to the square-leaved trees there are reddish mosses and mauve lichens, flowers with emerald petals and rainbow stems, and grass that grows in a disconcerting shade of yellow-blue. Among them are bushes dripping with berries, including some in familiar light pink and pastel orange.

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"You're not thinking of forfeiting, are you?" the fairy asks playfully. She alights on Sora's shoulder and holds the berries out teasingly.

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Nom nom nom. In addition to the horrible malaise, Sora now also feels even less connected to reality. This is really doing wonders for his motivation.

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"Just wanted to see for myself," he says. He runs his hands through the vegetation, pulling vines out of the brush to take a closer look at the berries growing on them.

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"Back in the day those berries were nothing special. We had to breed 'em for spirit channels wide enough to store magic in, and then we had to breed 'em for the right kinds of spells. Most of the time they ended up too nasty to eat."

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"Gosh, must've taken years."

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"You would not believe how hard it is to give plants magic," the fairy agrees. She flutters off his shoulder and alights on a nearby shrub. "See this one? Used to be completely mundane. Thirty generations later, now they're useful as reagents. Not even magic yet!"

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"It's not even a human repellent!"

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"I know. Nobody ever appreciates it either. Last time I showed my garden to an elf they said I wasn't doing real magic! You don't have to flirt with boundaries of the Covenant to do real magic, but nooooo, all they care about is screwing with each other as hard as possible."

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"I knew there had to be magic berries out here that weren't designed to be hazardous."

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She snickers. "You're not gonna find them by accident! If you really want I'll give you some of the good stuff when we're done, as a memento. Or we could share…"

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Yeah yeah yeah keep talking.

"Have you decided which pile you want to take from?"

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"I think I'm gonna take more orange ones," she says. "Then – let me guess, you're gonna take more pink ones, right?"

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"What makes you say that?"

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"Well, if I eat the black one, then you'll eat some of the pink ones until there are the same number of pink and orange left. That makes me lose. If I eat some of the pink ones, you'll eat orange ones until orange plus black equals pink, and that makes me lose too. So I'm going to eat some orange ones, so that – ah, wait, you'll just eat more of the pink ones until pink plus black equals orange. Right?"

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That is not actually how nim works, but Sora can see how you might come to that misunderstanding if you're looking for patterns in the game by computing the outcome of small piles by hand.

"Very clever," he says approvingly. "It doesn't matter to me which of them you eat."

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"Liar. It hasn't been that long since a human challenged me to a game."

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He's not going to say anything to that.

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When they return to the board the fairy demands two of the light pink berries. He feeds them to her slowly, then pretends to take his time thinking about which of the berries he needs to take himself.

pink orange black
5 6 1
22+20 22+ 21 20

Two orange it is. His little excursion was about five minutes, and the twisting sick feeling hasn't much abated in that time. It mixes with the effect of the light pink berries in an intellectually interesting way, like watching a video of yourself getting into a car crash while getting into a car crash.

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Sometimes the victims of especially venomous insect bites submerge the wound in boiling water to mask the pain. Maybe he can do something like that?

You are a loser, he tells himself. A hikkikomori, a failson, a NEET. You spend sixteen hours a day playing video games and the other eight being a useless sack of garbage. Dad is right about everything. The only thing you've ever been good at is looking out for Shiro, and you're about to fail at that too.

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Sora is kind of trying to bandage a gunshot wound with razor wire here but go off I guess.

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It was worth a try.

"Two of the orange berries, please."

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The pastel orange berries have a similar flavor to the light pink ones. The consequences of eating them, which Sora is absolutely right to be watching out for, seem limited to a visual blurring effect around the outlines of objects.

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Hooray. With only four orange berries left it's unlikely that eating all of them will render him completely blind, and although the beer goggles are unwelcome he's grateful that it wasn't far worse. He can still count the remaining berries and move unimpeded.

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This is obviously a losing position. It would have been nice to win the game fair and square, but that never seems to happen. It also would've been nice if this human had given up by now instead of taking a break to go frolic through the woods, although she can't blame him. Who doesn't enjoy a good frolic in the woods?

Nevertheless, she wants to get on with her day. She requests the entire pile of light pink berries. On his next turn, the human will eat three of the four remaining orange berries, leaving one pastel orange berry and one jet black berry for her to pick from. After that, in theory, the human eats the last berry and she loses.

In theory. In practice, she's going to eat the orange one.

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Sora passes her the five berries, then takes three of the orange ones himself.

"Saves some time," he says by way of explanation, popping one into his mouth.

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The orange berries will make the aggravating visual distortion worse, though never to the point of obscuring his sight or preventing him from completing any sort of visual task.

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"You know what the problem is? Turns out that anything that doesn't breach the Covenant is gonna appeal to someone. We still get humans out here sometimes, looking for older experiments. Heck, some humans like eating ones that do breach the Covenant!"

She eyes the two remaining berries. One orange, one black.

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"So, do you want the black one?" Sora asks jocularly.

He pops the second orange berry of the turn in his mouth, along with a fistful of light pink berries picked from the excursion a few minutes ago.

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"I haven't had any of them yet," the fairy muses. "Maybe… nah, I think I'll stick with orange. It's got an interesting aftertaste, don't you think?"

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Sora is having an out-of-body experience. If he focuses hard he can still feel the ground underneath him and the afternoon breeze blowing against his skin, but otherwise he is verging on a disconnection. Too much ping, please close the program and try logging in again. The unbearable emotional agony is now happening to some other person.

Excellent.

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"Not as interesting as the black one did," says the person playing nim with a fairy. One more orange berry, accompanied by the last of the light pink berries in his jacket pocket.

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"Tempting, but I'll pass. Orange one please!"

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Here you go, surprise drug fairy. Enjoy your surprise drugs. Sora certainly is.

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"Last one," the fairy says glumly. "You can still forfeit if you want, you know. I'm not going to force-feed this to you."

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"When I'm so close to winning? No thanks. I've already won—"

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"Hey. Hey, wake up."

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Night has fallen. The bright, bright sun and the small green moon have both sunk below the horizon, leaving the world illuminated only by the red moon's faint (and possibly artificial) glow. Ten thousand stars blaze overhead.

Sora is lying side by side with Shiro on the side of the road.

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Oh yeah, he's awake.

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"Our sleep schedules are completely hosed," he says inanely.

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"I'm not naked, so I'm going to go out on a limb and say you won. Not that there was any doubt. What game did you end up going with?"

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In the third chapter of Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man, James Joyce's self-insert goes to church and listens to a fire and brimstone sermon about the slavering jaws of hell.

In hell, on the contrary, one torment, instead of counteracting another, lends it still greater force: and, moreover, as the internal faculties are more perfect than the external senses, so are they more capable of suffering. Just as every sense is afflicted with a fitting torment, so is every spiritual faculty; the fancy with horrible images, the sensitive faculty with alternate longing and rage, the mind and understanding with an interior darkness more terrible even than the exterior darkness which reigns in that dreadful prison.

Sora does not think that describing how it went down in that level of detail is a good idea right now. He can tell Shiro later, when he's feeling less stressed over it.

And, admittedly, it could have been worse. As Joyce's pastor phrased it:

Last and crowning torture of all the tortures of that awful place is the eternity of hell. Eternity! O, dread and dire word. Eternity! What mind of man can understand it? And remember, it is an eternity of pain. Even though the pains of hell were not so terrible as they are, yet they would become infinite, as they are destined to last for ever.

It's over. His vision is back to normal, he is no longer a space cadet, and the godawful pseudo-torture is just a memory. Not even a ton of memory, either. He's spent the last few hours sleeping (or at least experiencing shitty non-restful unconsciousness), and before that is hazy and easy to dismiss.

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"It was more of a Saw trap than a game, unfortunately."

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Shiro rolls over until she's lying directly on top of him. She is no longer small enough that her weight is negligible, but neither is she especially heavy.

"You have all of your fingers and toes and eyeballs, so I'm gonna say it wasn't that bad. Want breakfast? I have cereal bars, cereal bars, and… cereal bars."

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"I could go for a cereal bar."

He's quite famished, in fact, but there is a 0% chance they are going foraging in these woods so they're going to have to ration what they've got.

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Shiro eats breakfast and looks up at the beautiful stars. No recognizable constellations, but she's sure the people of Disboard have their own names and stories for them. Those stories might even be real – maybe there's a Tet constellation up there, commemorating some famous game for awesome stakes. Are there other gods, ones with their own stories? Maybe she'll meet them someday and ask.

"That band across the sky below the moon looks just like the Milky Way," she says. "We're probably in a spiral galaxy."

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"If you say so."

Sora knows dozens of trivia facts about space but very little about astronomy. Shiro is the one who listens to audiobooks while gaming.

He eats breakfast by starlight, enjoying a view of the night sky unimpeded by light pollution. It's dark but not nearly as dark as Earth even under the light of a full moon – the path ahead is still visible. It's quiet here.

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"I'm starting to get blisters. You might need to carry me later."

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"What a delicate flower you are," he says flatly, standing up. "Come on, we're burning moonlight. The sooner we find a town the sooner we'll know whether Disboard has grocery stores that do home delivery."

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"I'm not holding out hope," Shiro admits. She squints up at him. "Hey, you have something orange on your cheek."

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"Kind of looks like a lipstick mark."

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Yikes, how did that happen? He rubs it off quickly.

"We were eating berries. Must be fruit juice."

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"Glad you had fun without me. I wasn't sure if that was possible."

With that they set out, down the long and winding road to a destination they cannot name and a future they cannot ascertain, and while Shiro does need Sora to carry her for parts of it, he doesn't seem to mind.

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The nearest city is within walking distance! It's even recognizably a city rather than a village, in the sense that its inhabitants have several priorities other than farming. Multi-story buildings with glazed windows rise from the hillsides, connected by paved brick pathways and serviced by tall stone aqueducts. People mill about on rooftops beneath wide parasols and beneath the shade of skyways. There are no walls around this city, no gate or checkpoint to pass through officially.

In the middle of the city is an immense castle made of whitish stone that glitters merrily in the sunlight, with flags and banners of arms hung from the battlements. Its looming presence is more reminiscent of a metropolitan skyscraper than a medieval fortification. The rest of the city spirals about the castle at its base, like the tail of a cat curled up around its body as it sleeps.

There are a few people on the road in and out, all of whom wear broad hats to keep the light out of their eyes. The dominant form of transport is walking, with merchant carts pulled by beasts of burden a distant second.

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"Excuse me! Can you give me directions to an inn, or anywhere a traveler might find accommodations?"

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"You'll be lucky if there's anything left, what with the folks coming in for the tournament," says one of the other humans on the road. "I'd try the Railbird's Perch, they've got the most rooms and they don't charge a fortune."

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Sora wheedles the details out of the man. The translation magic, which the fairy must've set up while he was otherwise occupied, works fairly unobtrusively. If he doesn't pay attention to the words the other man is saying then it's hardly even noticeable. It's only when Sora hones in on the syllables and words-as-sounds that it becomes apparent they are not speaking a common language.

"Did you get all that?" he asks, once they're on their way again.

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"I have Tongues now. Or Comprehend Languages, can't know for sure until I say something. Why didn't you ask him about the tournament?"

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"If this tournament is so important that the city is running out of hotel rooms, we're going to hear more about it soon enough."

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Railbird's Perch is a further half-hour walk into the city. Most of the paths are designed to have plenty of shade from buildings and trees, making it pleasantly cool despite the hour of the day.

The inn is a stately building situated on an island in a stream surrounded by bridges. The wraparound veranda is populated by people eating, drinking, and playing cards. Most of people drinking are in fact standing, so as to watch the people playing cards. There's some chatter, but overall the atmosphere is one of intense concentration.

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Sora goes to the concierge desk to ask about rooms, food, the tournament, the local medium of exchange, the political situation, the general level of technology, and any problems that urgently need attention from visitors with a comprehensive 21st century education.

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Charisma is Shiro's dump stat. She's going to go and watch people play cards instead. What sort of cards are these people playing, hmm?

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They're playing heads-up stud poker! Each table has exactly two players, or only one if they're between games. The cards are recognizably 52-card decks, although the symbols on them are foreign to Shiro, and each player has a stack of metallic poker chips on the felt next to them.

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Some of the players have smaller stacks than others.

Stephanie's face-up cards are an nine and a ten of the same suit, and her face-down cards are seven and five offsuit. This is a terrible hand, all things considered, but she checked it to the fourth card to fish for a straight draw. The five was not what she was hoping for. Her opponent has a pair of face cards showing and a reputation for skill – she'll keep checking or calling small raises just in case she hits her draw, but she's running desperately low on chips.

"Check."

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"Raise." Zell adds three gray chips to the pot in the middle of the table.

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Stephanie glances at her stack. If she calls, she's getting a terrible price for a hand that needs to hit an eight and either a six or a jack to be worth anything. A flush is theoretically possible but with the way her luck's going she's not going to risk it. Doubles won't win, and if Zell is raising then neither will triples.

"Fold."

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Chloe Zell sweeps the pot into her corner, then picks up the cards and begins shuffling. Her face is expressionless. Not because she expects Stephanie to make a read off her – she just doesn't do facial expressions on most days. It's a habit she picked up years ago that's served her well at the poker table, where leaking information is disastrous.

If she were to have an expression, though, it would be a smile.

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There are four reporters and a barefoot teenage girl trying to make eye contact with Stephanie. She gives them all reassuring nods but says nothing, because interacting with the public takes more than zero attention and right now she's putting all of it towards that cards that Chloe is dealing her.

Ace of spades and king of diamonds face down, and seven of diamonds face up. Across the table, Chloe Zell's visible card is the two of clubs, which forces her to start with the bring-in before Stephanie leads the action.

Cards
Stephanie 🂡 🃎 🃇
Chloe 🂠 🂠 🃒

Ace king hands are tricky, but third street is her weakest card and betrays nothing to Zell. This is as good as it gets without a high pocket pair. Time to bet. The minimum bet is twenty, but Stephanie is going to go with thirty.

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"Call." She tosses in an additional thirty, then deals herself the six of hearts and her opponent the ace of diamonds.

Cards
Stephanie 🂡 🃎 🃇 🃁
Chloe 🂠 🂠 🃒 🂶
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Score! A pair of aces with top kicker and a decent chance to hit a flush! This game might not be over after all.

The ideal strategy in this situation is to bet carefully, extracting as much as she can from Zell without tipping her over the line and making her fold before the river. Unfortunately, Stephanie only has fifteen chips left, which isn't enough to do anything clever with. There's only one option: shove.

"I'm all in."

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"Call."

Chloe Zell adds another fifteen chips to the pot. Since one player has gone all in and the other wants to make it a showdown they have the option to 'run it twice', which is to play out the rest of the hand two (or more) times and split the pot accordingly. It's a decision that reduces variance, smoothing the statistical impact of luck on the outcome of the hand. Both of them need to agree to do it, and she hasn't really thought about whether she would assent if Stephanie asked. She doesn't think it's going to happen.

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Yeah, nah, she's feeling good about this one. Let 'er rip.

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Stephanie's final hand is the ace of spades; king, seven, and ace of diamonds, the queen and three of hearts, and the king of clubs. Across the table, the four visible cards are the two of clubs, six of hearts, two of diamonds, and jack of clubs.

Cards
Stephanie 🂡 🃎 🃇 🃁 🂽 🂳 🃞
Chloe 🂠 🂠 🃒 🂶 🃂 🃛 🂠
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"Two pair, aces and kings!" Stephanie announces triumphantly. Pairs aren't great in seven-card stud, even pairs of aces, but the highest possible two pair is reasonably good.

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Zell flips over her remaining cards. The first two are the six and three of spades, and the final card is the six of clubs.

"Full house, sixes full of twos. Good game."

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Sora finishes giving the hapless concierge the third degree and wanders over to his sister. She's standing by a table where two young women have just finished a game of cards. A handful of people with spiral-bound notepads are clamoring to speak to the red-headed woman with no chips left, and the woman answering their questions sounds defeated and tired. Understandably so – Sora wasn't paying attention but even he can tell that this game wasn't an even match.

He's learned quite a bit about Elkia in the last few minutes, but the most important parts that he needs to share are: "They don't have any room here tonight, and if we eat anything that wasn't prepared in this city we need to ensure it was cooked thoroughly."

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"Per my wager on the outcome of this game of poker, I will not be playing in the upcoming tournament. I wish all contestants good fortune, and I eagerly await the results."

    "Will you be backing Chloe Zell's candidacy for the throne?"

"I will be honoring my late grandfather's dying wishes regarding his method of choosing a successor."

    "Is it true that the tournament was a condition of the king's last wager against the Eastern Union?"

"It has been shown to my satisfaction that the tournament was devised in its entirety by my grandfather alone, acting of sound mind and under no duress."

    "What will you do now?"

"Order room service, I think."

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Chloe Zell leaves the building without fanfare, and the reporters flock after her.

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"That was underhanded. How did no one notice?"

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"They weren't looking."

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Stephanie knows she should have rehearsed the words more than once. Her victory here was a longshot. She could've spent more time preparing for defeat and less time wishing for better cards. After this she'll have one more hour in the limelight, when she hands her grandfather's crown to the winner of the tournament – Chloe Zell, in all likelihood – and after that she'll serve at the new monarch's pleasure.

Maybe she can convince them of her usefulness. Probably not.

"I'll see you all at tomorrow," she says to the remaining audience, and leaves for her room. There might be a way for her to salvage this mess, but it was never with herself at the card table. She needs to plan for an uncertain future, and she needs to do it soon.

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There are two people on the third floor, waiting outside the door to her room. One is the barefoot teenage girl, and the other is a boy her age. They're not any ethnicity she recognizes. The boy's shirt is adorned with four characters, the second of which is the suit of hearts, but the other three are in an unfamiliar script. They're both fairly grubby, and now that they're no longer masked by the fragrance of the kitchens and the dining area it's obvious that neither of them have bathed recently.

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Stephanie is really not in the mood for dealing with more citizen complaints, but dealing with citizen complaints is part and parcel of public service. Last thing on the agenda before she screams into her pillow sits down to plan out the next few days.

She straightens up and gives her best smile. "What can I help you with?"

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"You are a terrible poker player, Princess Stephanie."

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A lesser princess would lose her temper over such an insult. Stephanie merely seethes internally. It's not as though the barefoot girl is wrong.

"However did you come to that conclusion?" she asks, injecting slightly more sarcasm than strictly necessary.

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"A good player would've folded that hand, and a great player wouldn't have been in that situation. But even a mediocre player would've accused their opponent of cheating."

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"How could I have known that? For that matter, how could you have known that?"

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He pulls his cell phone out of his pocket and opens up a note he typed out on the way upstairs with the probabilities in it.

(This is the first he's used his cell phone since the chess game. He is immensely grateful that they haven't been Harold Shea'd.)

"Your hand was acceptable. Pair and two pair aren't as strong in seven-card stud as they are in hold 'em, but two hidden face cards and a weak third street are acceptable. Leading the action on fourth street with an all-in using so few chips instead of checking let your opponent know your position well enough to put you on a tight range. If you had checked it back you could've lured her further in or folded as necessary.

"Your cards make sense. Your opponent's cards do not. She called you down with six-three-two, improving to a pair on fourth street. That hand is weak. I could imagine her raising to try to bluff you out, given that she had the bigger stack, but once you jammed with an ace showing she ought to have folded. The odds of her winning that hand were low – she improved from two pair deuces and sixes to a full house on the final card, which is the kind of lucky break that good players try not to rely on."

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That's all well and good, but believing your opponent is a cheater isn't enough. You have to actually know that you were scammed to force a forfeit. Unexpected good luck isn't enough.

"You used that thing to figure out she was cheating?"

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"We did not. I suppose you could use it that way, if you were so inclined, but we figured it out the hard way."

You don't need to be a human calculator with the exact percentages in mind to be a champion poker player, but if you can't reckon the odds in some form or another you're dead in the water and surrounded by sharks.

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In other worlds not governed by the Covenant, someone with power might be tempted to appropriate such a device by force. In other cultures not governed by the Covenant, this might be the time to propose a mutually beneficial trade. After all, two kids looking like this must have a price for a greater artifact, however they came by it.

In the Kingdom of Elkia, this is the time for a wager.

"I challenge you," she says, pointing at the glowing rectangle.

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"And our wager is to be the「cell phone」? What do you think, Sora?"

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Stephanie has no idea what a 'cell phone' is, but in context it's obvious. The words latch on to her conception of the device, but not with the full force of a native speaker who happens to know with confidence what they mean.

Is it supplying them with translation magic as well? That would certainly be useful, were the government of Elkia to have access to it.

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"Quite the price. What to ask of the Princess of Elkia in exchange? I happen to think this gadget is worth thousands of gold, or even more."

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Inconveniently, this is almost certainly true. If Sora knows what the artifact is worth she can't get away with lowballing him. Not quite as good, but if she wins now she can still get away with retaining it personally.

"I can have it appraised by the Ministry of Progress, without informing them of the outcome of the game, and pay you its value out of the treasury," she says.

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"And if they won't extend you that much credit? I've heard interesting things about your future as a leader."

Admittedly he's heard all of them in the last twenty minutes, but still.

"I propose the following. We play a game of Handicap Rock Paper Scissors. If you win, you get this." He waggles the phone enticingly. "If we win, we get its cash value as assessed by your Ministry, or else your faithful service for as long as they say is equivalent in value."

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Stephanie thinks this is sort of ridiculous, but is more interested in the terms of the game. "I'm familiar with Rock Paper Scissors, but not Handicap Rock Paper Scissors. What are the rules?"

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"We each say 'rock paper scissors' and choose one at the same time. Paper beats rock, rock beats scissors, scissors beats paper. If we both make the same choice, we repeat the game until we've made different choices. I expect you knew all that already.

"The handicap is this: I must choose paper. If I choose rock or scissors, I lose."

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"Don't think I didn't notice how you worded that," Stephanie accuses. "Both of us losing does not constitute a tie. What happens then?"

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"Good question. I've handicapped myself pretty hard here, so if we both lose I'd prefer we make the wager a lot smaller. I don't want to give up the cell phone, but I'll share ownership with you. You can use it for up to 50% of each day if we're both in need of it, though I expect we can be flexible about that in practice, and you'll have half of its value to wager with in the future. I'll also show you how to use it."

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"And in exchange?"

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"I need a favor. We've been on the road for a while, getting here, and we're just about out of supplies. I've got this and not much else; Shiro's got nothing but the dress."

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Shiro, blank-faced, does a little twirl with the dress.

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"You need a place to stay?"

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"We're only here for the tournament."

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"I assent! Let's do this."

Stephanie drops the thread of conversation entirely to focus on the game, though she maintains eye contact with Sora.

In any normal game of Rock Paper Scissors, there is a three-in-nine chance of drawing and going on to a second round. Unlike a normal game of Rock Paper Scissors, only one of those options in this scenario leads to a second round: both of them choosing paper. In other words, a tie where Sora does not lose. If they both choose scissors or rock, Stephanie comes out ahead; if she plays paper and loses to scissors or plays scissors and loses to rock, the game ends and they each make the lesser forfeit.

Stephanie's Analysis
Stephanie ✊Stephanie ✋Stephanie ✌️
Sora ✊  
Stephanie wins!
 
Stephanie wins!
 
Tie!
Sora ✋  
Sora wins!
 
Rematch!
 
Stephanie wins!
Sora ✌️  
Stephanie wins!
 
Tie!
 
Stephanie wins!
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Stephanie is confident that, if both players pick randomly, she has a five-in-nine chance of winning outright, with an additional two-in-nine chance of a very favorable outcome. Sora obviously did not pick these rules in order to handicap himself; he expects to advantage himself with them. What does he think he can get here?

Well, he might be planning to cheat. That's the first thing you say to street hustlers when the ball isn't under the cup where you expect it, you say they've slid it off the table and have an extra hidden up their sleeve because everyone's see that trick before.

Can he cheat at Rock Paper Scissors? Expert players win more often than chance, but Stephanie doesn't think that skill extends to winning a game like this…

…can he cheat using the cell phone? Most possible ways such an artifact could work don't help in this scenario, but it occurs to Stephanie that if it enables the user to read minds or see into the future then she is definitely not going to win.

"Do you mind giving her the cell phone before we play?"

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Shiro takes the cell phone and stows it in one of the pockets of her dress.

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Her dress has pockets???

No, focus. Cheating is not in evidence, so Sora expects to win legitimately. Stephanie thinks there's an angle there, actually: while he only has a one-in-nine chance of winning outright, he's specified a separate wager to settle in the event of a draw, which gives him a three-in-nine chance of coming out with what he wants.

The tie wager makes a lot of sense. These two look homeless and tired, like they've walked to Elkia City from a farm twenty kilometers away, and Stephanie infers that they haven't got enough money to book a room in the city while people are streaming in from across the country to compete for the crown.

They do have an artifact, but Sora won't want to use it as a bargaining chip. He's here to play poker, armed with an artifact that assists with playing poker somehow (the interface suggested the purpose of the cell phone was more general  but Stephanie isn't thinking about that while her attention is on this game). Selling it would gain him a room and lose him the tournament. So he needs to partially sell it, somehow…

That's his goal. He plays for a tie where they both lose, gives partial ownership of the cell phone to someone he knows for a fact isn't going to play in the tournament, and goes on to play poker while Stephanie supports him and his sister instead of opposing them.

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Despite various claims to the contrary, Stephanie is neither a sucker nor an easy mark. She's not going to give Sora what he wants when she could just as easily win.

If she plays rock, she has a two-in-three chance of winning. If she plays scissors, she also has a two-in-three chance of winning. Paper only has a one-in-three chance – if Sora plays paper as well, he doesn't lose, so instead of a lose-lose scenario they have a rematch as normal. Stephanie isn't sure whether to call it a fifty-fifty chance of winning or losing or call it a one-third chance each of winning, losing, or other. Regardless, she's not going to choose paper.

Stephanie's Analysis
  Stephanie ✊ Stephanie ✋ Stephanie ✌️
Sora ✊  
Stephanie wins!
 
Stephanie wins!
 
Tie!
Sora ✋  
Sora wins!
 
Rematch!
 
Stephanie wins!
Sora ✌️  
Stephanie wins!
 
Tie!
 
Stephanie wins!
Stephanie's Odds

Realistically, her options are rock or scissors. And, since Sora will lose if he doesn't pick paper, he clearly wants to make it harder for her to pick rock. His strategy, therefore, is to get her to pick scissors, to which he will respond with rock, thus ending the game in a tie. So the winning pick is rock.

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…wow, okay then. Maybe she should avoid picking rock in the game where the rule is that her opponent is only allowed to pick paper, hmm?

Come to think of it, he did say that her problem was only evaluating her own hand and ignoring Chloe Zell's. Maybe she'll try to learn from her mistakes for once. So, what does Sora think about this game?

If Sora plays paper, he has a fifty-fifty chance of winning. Or a one-in-three chance each of winning, losing, or going to a rematch; Stephanie still isn't sure how to do the math on that properly. She's absolutely not going to choose rock, so for now it's probably best to think of it as a two-in-three of 'not losing'.

But he can only choose paper, per the handicap. If he chooses rock or scissors he has a 100% chance of losing, with only a one-in-three chance of Stephanie losing too.

Stephanie's Analysis of Sora Trying To Stop Stephanie From Winning
  Stephanie ✊ Stephanie ✋ Stephanie ✌️  
Sora ✊  
Stephanie wins!
 
Stephanie wins!
 
Tie!
Sora ✋  
Sora wins!
 
Rematch!
 
Stephanie wins!
Sora ✌️  
Stephanie wins!
 
Tie!
 
Stephanie wins!

It doesn't make sense for Sora to choose anything other than paper. That's the mind game right there: make it seem like there's a mind game and twist Stephanie into knots before choosing paper, exactly like he said he would.

When she thinks of it like that, the solution is obvious.

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Both players raise their fists and speak in unison.

"Rock, paper, scissors!"

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Scissors!

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Rock.

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"Not bad, Stephanie. I saw your face; you almost let me get you to throw rock, didn't I? Good job avoiding that. By not choosing rock, you prevented me from winning the game."

He sounds genuinely effusive with his praise. The smile on his face is sincere.

"Still, you should've chosen paper. That's what would've maximized your odds of winning the game yourself."

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"What are you talking about? Scissors gave me a two-thirds chance of winning, and paper only gave me half that! Scissors dominates paper as a strategy!"

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"And I knew that! I picked the rules, I set the probabilities, I told you what to think! You believe this is a game of mathematics and chance? Wrong! This is a game of reading your opponent."

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Shiro rolls her eyes. All games are games of mathematics and chance. She won't say it though – it'd detract from the lesson that Sora is trying to teach.

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"You ruled out rock, which was half of a winning plan. If you'd thought about why I made the rules the way they were, you'd have understood enough to finish the other half: ruling out scissors, the safer option with better odds that I handed to you on a silver platter."

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"I— you— fine, whatever," Stephanie splutters. "You were trying to force a tie anyways. Can you tell me what the cell phone does, now that I own half of it?"

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Shiro hands her the cell phone.

"It's an extremely powerful computer and communications device. The communication network it relies on is not present in Elkia, but outside of that it's capable of performing certain tasks better than humans. Much better than humans – providing numbers for comparison would be pointless. It stores thousands of local copies of books, images, audio, and various combinations thereof, and it can defeat anyone alive at games in inverse proportion to how much luck is involved. For games of pure strategy it's orders of magnitude stronger than is theoretically possible for humans."

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Stephanie looks down at the cell phone as though she has been handed the nuclear football.

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Sora rolls his eyes.

"The chess engine on that thing is good but not perfect. We don't know everything the people on Disboard are capable of, so don't count on it if your opponent happens to be a robot or something. It can only play games we tell it how to play, and giving it new games to play will take Shiro and I working together for at least a few days each. It also runs on a form of energy that we have no easy way to replenish, so the plan is to ration its use until we can fix that."

He didn't ask the concierge whether Elkian chemists had managed to purify copper and zinc, but on the off chance they have he can get a voltaic pile set up on relatively short notice.

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"It's not magical?"

Stephanie examines it closely. It's a thin rectangular prism, smooth metal and glass, with two buttons on one edge and a third on the opposite edge. The surface is a black mirror.

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Sora reaches over and presses the button on the side. His lock screen is a digital photograph of himself and Shiro taken eight years ago, glaring at each other across a chessboard. He taps the bottom and the screen overlays a grid of nine dots. He swipes through them in a pattern and the phone unlocks, showing the note he typed out earlier.

"That's how you activate it if it's sleeping. If it's off, hold down the button. The pattern I showed you is a secret, to prevent unauthorized access." He closes the note. "The icons here are called apps. This app is the library. This one is chess. This one is a poker odds calculator. When you asked earlier whether I used this to detect cheating and I said it was possible, I was referring to books in the library."

He demonstrates. The library is filled with an obscene number of books, none of them in languages that Stephanie can read.

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Stephanie absorbs this. The cell phone, of which she is now co-owner, is plausibly the most valuable object in the entire kingdom. Even foreigners would want it badly, if they knew of its existence. Humanity is uniquely handicapped at performing magic, but some of the other lesser races haven't fared much better. A device that can win any chess game… she can think of several places this thing might be needed, some of them acutely.

Speaking of: "You're using translation magic. Where did that come from, if not the cell phone?"

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"Won it off a fairy," Sora says brusquely.

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"Did you use the cell phone?"

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"No one outside the three of us knows of its existence. Unless you count Tet, in which case there are four."

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Presumably Tet knows everything, but since the cell phone is not currently relevant to the outcome of a game Stephanie doesn't expect divine intervention. Point taken about it calling Tet's attention if she uses it that way, which she absolutely intends to do.

"Good to know, thank you. As for my end of the deal, there are a few options. I can give you my room here and extend my stay, I can buy you a room in a different hotel, or I can put you up in the castle's ambassador suite. If I tell the castellan you're visiting from Elven Gard or the Eastern Union there won't be any issues. That's likely to be the best option, since it's close to the tournament, but you might want to stay further from the castle if you have other concerns to manage."

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"Nah."

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"Do you not want your prize?"

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"Didn't say that, did I? Actually – hey Shiro, what did I say, exactly?"

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"'I need a favor. We've been on the road for a while, getting here, and we're just about out of supplies. I've got this and not much else; Shiro's got nothing but the dress,'" Shiro recites.

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"Did I specify what the favor was?"

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"Nope."

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oh fuck

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"Makes you wonder how much my phone would've been worth if we had it assessed," Sora muses. "Oh well, we're here now and there's no going back."

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This is bad. This is really, really bad, beyond the usual standards for what constitutes a mistake. Parents teach their toddlers not to make or accept open-ended wagers. "Bet that you'll be my friend", "Bet that you won't tell anyone what we did today", "Bet me a favor". They're so easy to offer, as easy to offer as they are to regret, which is why children are cautioned against them time and again until it sticks.

Or until they convince themselves that what they've offered isn't open-ended at all. Sora never asked for lodgings, he'd simply implied it and waited patiently until Stephanie convinced herself it was going to be okay, and now it isn't, she'd thought she lost everything today at the poker table but she has so much more to lose now FUCK.

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"Could've been a lot of gold and faithful service. The opportunity cost to get this favor is almost farcical, if you think about it."

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"I don't know, Shiro. I think we'll get what we wanted after all."

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oh gods no please no please please please no

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"Now, here's how you can repay that favor…"

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"I'm not sure what genre I was expecting from Disboard, but it wasn't JRPG."

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"For now. I'm expecting it to become 4X after we win control of this country."

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"I don't know what 'JRPG' or '4X' mean. Are those types of games?"

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"JRPGs are games that usually have turn-based combat systems and emphasis on narrative, character development, and assembling a party of allies. 4X is an abbreviation for explore, expand, exploit, exterminate – we may not be able to do that last one. Games oriented around nation-building and conquest."

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"You think it'll be 4X and not grand strategy? Elkia's lost a lot of territory recently, we could be fighting defensive wars from the moment we take power."

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"'No war,' according to Tet. No war means no troop movements, no logistics, no injuries, no death. We can handle all of the challenges to Elkian territory personally."

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"Doesn't rule out a cold war," Shiro points out. "Economic sanctions, travel restrictions, espionage, magical shenanigans I have no particular insight into…"

She looks at Stephanie.

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"The crown might have a dozen sorcerers on retainer at any given time, mostly fairies and elves. We can afford to commission artifacts from dwarves; the market for dweomercraft is efficient enough to give us a good price on common services. Extremely powerful spells that comply with the wording of the Covenant but not the spirit are typically nullified by Regenleif or Holo as soon as it's brought to their attention. The greater races have so far left Elkia alone but if they were so inclined they could cause us serious problems."

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"'Greater races'?"

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"Gods, phantasms, elementals, dragons, giants, angels. Elementals meet all the criteria for a Covenant-protected species but in practice they behave like a force of nature. There are no reliable eyewitness reports of giants in the last century, and they may be extinct. There are two phantasms on this continent, and the one that lives near here does not play games. The other greater races have made no coordinated effort to rule the world since the end of the Last War, but individual dragons and angels occupy patches of territory here and there. The gods remain undefeated and command more respect and obedience than they've won, possibly for fear of reprisal."

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Shiro exchanges a smug grin with Sora. It is the smug look of『____』, who have beaten a god at chess and plan to do it again.

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"And the lesser races? Who are the opponents that Elkia faces?"

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"Mostly the werebeasts. The vast majority of Elkian territory lost to foreign powers during my grandfather's reign was ceded to the Eastern Union. Apart from them, the other pressing threat is the elves. Elven Gard is the largest country on the continent and has ambitions of stretching from sea to shining sea. Control of shipping lanes and fishing grounds is rarely an issue but occasionally contested by sirens; the crown has maps of regions where passage is barred."

This word is a compound of the words for 'human' and 'animal' with the inflection for hybridization. Translation magic renders it as 'werebeast' for Shiro and 'furry' for Sora.

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"And the others? Let's try to avoid unexpected surprises."

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"Vvardenfell shares a border with Elkia, but the dwarves are temperamentally disinclined towards conquest and King Drauvnir has no animus towards humans. Most fairies are enslaved in Elven Gard and the remainder have no organized polity. The machines are rare and have no organized polity. Demons are not rare, have no organized polity, and rarely pose a threat worse than being annoying neighbours. Vampires are ocean-dwelling. Lunamana live on the moon and have not been credibly identified on Disboard in centuries, but are widely believed to be able to travel between worlds, change their appearance, and perform magic on par with that of the greater races."

This word is literally translated as 'essence-draining enchanter', which for Shiro clicks as 'vampire' and for Sora clicks as 'succubus'.

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____』move over to confer between one another in hushed tones.

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Stephanie, seated on her bed, decides to do some introspection now that she has a moment to herself. How does she feel about this?

Fine! She feels fine.

Well, of course she feels fine. Obviously. Looking deeper won't erase what's there.

Stephanie is in less of a bind than one would expect, as she is practiced in the ancient art of examining one's own mind. To begin with, she imagines how she would have felt six hours ago had she known what was going to happen.

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This is objectively pretty bad. Stephanie has been thoroughly subverted, to the point that it would almost be better to be enslaved. These two weirdos from another dimension are planning to take the crown of Elkia, and with the cell phone and backing from Princess Stephanie they have a non-negligible chance of pulling it off. It's not clear whether they'll be better for Elkia in the long run than Chloe Zell.

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Oh yes they will. Chloe Zell is a tool, it's not a high bar to clear.

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Chloe Zell sucks, agreed, but Stephanie's judgement is compromised and she knows it. Besides, only the stated point of the tournament is to pass the crown on to someone better at games than Stephanie. Stephanie was willing to admit that Zell might be a better administrator and gambler than herself, but the Summoned Jackass Hero and his sister have clearly put all of their effort into being dominant gamers, at the expense of literally everything else. Seriously, one or both of them smells like a barn.

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Original Stephanie should refrain from baselessly slandering Sora and/or his sister. She gets a pass this time, by virtue of not being real.

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Original Stephanie is not clear why she's being emulated if her advice is going to be disregarded like this. Perhaps the new and improved Stephanie should simply go her own way.

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… ensuring that Sora does not become a tyrant if his ensuing reign would be disastrous for Elkia is not incompatible with Stephanie's innermost dreams and desires.

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Yes!

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Which is why, when he wins, Stephanie will have to be there for him as a regent and domestic policy expert while he and Shiro go out and reclaim Elkia's former territory!

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… could be worse.

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Ideally, conflicts between two versions of the same person are mediated by a third party with advance authorization. Anyone who wants to buy psychic surgery is well advised to think about what their future self will want, whether it conflicts with what they currently endorse, and how they'll feel about being constrained by a past self they've intentionally decided to stop being. If the advance directive specified by the past self comes into force, arbitration can often bind the present self to some code of conduct that satisfies both. This doesn't work for extreme alterations, but alterations are rare and extreme ones are rare among them, so in practice it works out.

Stephanie does not have an advance directive or a trusted third party, but her present self is proooooobably accurately simulating her past self, and she definitely knows that she's supposed to view this as a negotiation with Original Stephanie even if she doesn't remember why.

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Original Stephanie took the exact same classes. No further insight there, sorry.

They're on the same page with respect to most things, she thinks. Take charge of Elkia, bring prosperity and victory to humanity, validate her grandfather's legacy, wear cute shoes and drink tea in the afternoon and someday have a family that's proud of her?

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No disagreement here. Stephanie agrees that cute shoes and tea in the afternoon are what's best in life.

But there's a new priority as of ten minutes ago, and they have to decide where it goes. Original Stephanie will probably veto it being #1, but Stephanie is very confident that it's going in the top five. Original Stephanie is welcome to make an opening bid.

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The platonic ideal of an ordered priority list is not how Original Stephanie is thinking of this.

In practice, what will happen is the new priority will bump up against old ones, and she'll have to decide whether to indulge her new priority or whatever Original Stephanie would've done. Suppose Stephanie is a tiebreaking vote for who'll be the next king of Elkia, and the options are Sora and someone just as good at gaming as Sora but with fifteen years of experience as one of grandfather's ministers. Oh, and suppose Sora doesn't concede.

What then?

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Stephanie does NOT like this hypothetical situation.

That is a sign that it's important! She will examine it closely and from multiple angles.

… there are versions of this hypothetical that would uncomplicatedly cause her to vote against Sora. For example, if Shiro advised her to do so, or if her understanding of Sora's ultimate goals suggested that he would be better served by the minister becoming king.

There are also scenarios where she would probably vote against Sora, like if the minister in question had strong diplomatic ties with Vvardenfell or secret knowledge of the Eastern Union's overall strategy, but she would be unhappy and feel compelled to make it up to him.

As stated, no. This is partially informed by reality: there are no trusted administrators in the Elkian government with even a fraction of Chloe Zell's gaming skill, so Stephanie is confident that this choice will never be presented to her for real. Her grandfather left the crown to the tournament winner for a reason.

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Go back to the part where Hypothetical Stephanie would vote against Sora if the alternative were someone just as good, not a Summoned Hero, and drinking buddies with Veig Drauvnir. Are we sure that's the decision she'd make?

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Yes. No. Yes. Probably.

Hurry up and make your point, they're winding down over there.

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Stephanie is also practiced in the ancient art of stalling. There'll be time eventually to consider everything in detail. Tone down the sycophancy in private by at least half and in public all the way, at least for now. Stephanie and Original Stephanie can discuss where to draw the lines later.

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That seems like a good temporary compromise. Stephanie will show Sora and Shiro the same level of deference she'd show any other Elkian citizens that she happens to be friends with, at least until she has an hour or two alone to reassemble herself coherently.

She'll follow along with their plans for world domination, for now. It's not like her other plans were any better.

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"We can't afford to sit around talking for much longer if the tournament starts tomorrow. Stephanie— can I call you Steph?"

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Ha ha ha ha ha no.

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"My name is Stephanie."

Huh. That wasn't as difficult as she expected it to be.

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"… right, Stephanie. We need to clean up, eat something that isn't cereal bars, look at the official tournament rules, and learn more about Disboard. Not necessarily in that order. Thoughts?"

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"The ambassador suite is your best option. Both of you can stay there as my guests until the winner of the tournament is crowned as the new ruler of Elkia. After that, if you aren't the winner and I lose my title, I have enough in personal savings to support three people for a few months."

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"Don't worry about it. We've got this."

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"No time like the present. Let's go check out Castle Gormenghast."

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By noon Elkia is hot, verging past uncomfortable towards intolerable. The princess knows the ways from one end of the city to the other, passing only between shadows while the sun beats furiously on the canopy of the city, but the price of this deliberate routing is an indirect path from point A to point B.

The most popular activity seems to be getting in the water to escape the heat. The party stops at a street vendor, where Stephanie buys them each a bowl full of diced fruits and vegetables drizzled with vinegar for lunch, and they rest a while on a stone bench overlooking a pool the size of a train station. Thirty or forty bathers lounge in the pool, towels balanced atop their heads. They have passed a few such public pools with similar occupants.

The castle is closer, although it's hard to tell given its sheer size and the awkward angles they've been viewing it from.

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Shiro eats her sour salad and endeavors to think of it as lunch. The jet lag is going to hit like a truck, better to get it over with all at once.

"Are any of those people sirens?" she asks, waving at the people below them in the pool.

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"Does your homeworld not have sirens?"

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"Only humans. There are people who disagree but I considered their objections fundamentally unserious prior to this week."

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"Must be nice," Stephanie says wistfully. "No, none of them are. Sirens have the upper body of a human woman and the lower body of a fish. They can breathe air but can't walk. All of the other races in their natural form are easily distinguishable from humans, apart from some werebeasts."

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Sora finishes picking the berries out of his salad before he inhales it. It's an unusual flavor, but a good one.

This last comment has caught his interest. He finishes eating before speaking.

"Are all sirens female? Are they「parthenogenetic」— uh, do they have children by copying themselves?"

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"All female as far as I know. Their offspring are sired by other races. Mostly vampires, but they also challenge sailors over it. Ships that pass over deeper waters have to be captained by women for security. I suppose sirens could have self-copying magic in addition to that, I wouldn't know for sure. Their cities are built deep beneath the surface, where sunlight doesn't reach, and their government is officially disinterested in what happens on land."

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Their offspring are sired by other races.

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works. What could possibly be going on behind the scenes to make sense of that?

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Shiro is still watching the pool. "Are there any native non-humans in Elkia, or only foreigners?"

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These two are full of questions. Fortunately, they're questions that Stephanie is equipped to answer.

"There were a few on the last census. No more than a rounding error. We've tried to make Elkia attractive for expatriates, but we're not nearly as wealthy as Elven Gard or Vvardenfell so it's an uphill struggle. I do think we could plausibly be missing a sub-population of werebeasts. The president of the Eastern Union when I was a little girl looked completely human apart from his eyes; if he'd wanted to he could've lied on our census and we wouldn't notice. Otherwise, no. You've been summoned to the last of the true human realms."

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Sora has a sinking feeling that he may not be the protagonist of a JRPG after all. This is starting to look like the opening phase of a dating sim. Not that he has an intrinsic objection to the premise, being a warm-blooded boy of a certain age, but player two is his younger sister. He would rather not.

Time for a change of subject. "Mind if I buy one of those desserts?"

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"Two, please!"

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Stephanie doesn't feel like counting out change. She takes out her coin purse and lobs it at Sora. It's much heftier than it looks, presumably because it's filled with 22-karat gold coins two inches in diameter. Sora is welcome to buy dessert for himself and his sister.

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The dessert in question comes in the form of an elaborate sphere of some gelatinous substance, studded with brown nuts and tiny sugar crystals and smelling a bit like elderflower. There's an entire shelf of them on display near this vendor's cart, each sphere a different primary color. They look labor-intensive and delicious. Mostly labor-intensive. There's a sign on the shelf written in an indecipherable script, although it's not much of a stretch to assume that it names the product and its price.

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Sora picks up one of the desserts. It wobbles a bit in his grasp. Smells enticing, especially compared to the trail rations they've been eating.

Can he take a bite out of it?

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No. He can put it back or he can pay for it.

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Interesting. Can he not take a bite out of it because something is stopping him? He tries to bring it closer to his face.

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There is nothing stopping him from taking a deep whiff of elderflower off this desert. It sure smells good. Nevertheless, he is not going to take a bite until he buys it. That is not an available action, for much the same reason that spontaneously transmogrifying into a pigeon is not an available action. That would be theft.

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'Theft' has been grayed-out on Sora's metaphorical options menu. That part of the Covenant is also undeniably real. It's a little unnerving, not being able to command his limbs in such a specific way, but he can see the appeal of running a universe this way.

He goes to speak with the vendor.

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There's no building attached to the pool. People leave their clothes on the side of the road, including their purses and shoes, and when they get out they dry off and leave with no fanfare. Coin lockers don't seem to be necessary.

Most online games are like this, in Shiro's experience. Sometimes thief classes have the opportunity to 'pickpocket' a finite amount of money from NPCs, but rarely other players. Ownership is hard-coded into the experience by the developers.

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Stephanie has never thought much about this. Wondering what a world with theft would be like is a job for fiction authors and archaeologists.

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There's one other question that's been on Shiro's mind ever since Tet scooped her out of her bedroom and deposited her into the stratosphere.

"How does magic work? The translation for that word in my native language refers to a mythical phenomenon; I don't have a useful point of reference. You mentioned that humans can't use it – is that because no humans have been observed to learn magic, or do you believe it for other reasons?"

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"Magic comes from elementals. They flow through channels called「spirit circuits」and perform some task determined by their shape. Humans don't have「spirit circuits」, so we can't interact with magic or see it in action. Races that can manipulate their own「spirit circuits」can cast spells. Supposedly the gods alone can speak to elementals and have their obeisance. Some races have「spirit circuits」they can't manipulate: sirens and vampires use magic to charm the senses, werebeasts use magic to enhance their bodies and minds… I don't know many details. My grandfather lost all of humanity's written lore in a wager fifty years ago."

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"He what."

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Stephanie shrugs. "An angel challenged him to a game. He wagered the royal library. He lost. It wasn't the worst thing that happened to us while he was king."

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If that wasn't the worst thing to happen while he was king then his reign must've been a disaster.

"Did he happen to lose anything else in a bet with an angel? The armory, perhaps?"

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At no point in its history has Elkia had an armory. Nor an army, for that matter. What it has is land: farms and mines that generations of men have poured their blood and sweat into, deepwater ports and acres of timber forest. It has rather fewer of those, these days.

"We lost all of our remaining territory north of the Alterac Mountains and east of Canossa Pass. Nearly all of it was lost over the course of ten years and eight separate games carried out between my grandfather's administration and various agents of the Eastern Union. I would love to say more, but the werebeasts won his silence on the matter as part of the deal. We don't know what games he played or why he lost. The Eastern Union was unified rather unexpectedly out of sixteen disparate werebeast nations between eighteen and fifteen years ago, so the leading public theory is that an unusually competitive administration took hold, consolidated power, and started expanding."

The new president of the Eastern Union is a fox woman that Elkia knows precious little about. There are conflicting reports on what her name is, to say nothing of her political aims or skill as a gamer. Stephanie would have said that the power behind the throne was an angel or a machine, but Summoned Hero has recently been promoted to her attention as a hypothesis. She's not going to mention that, since it's just a guess.

"There are huge swathes of territory across the continent that once belonged to Elkia and are now part of Elven Gard. They are no longer occupied. Elves reproduce slowly, and their population grows but slightly with each passing year. My grandfather's attempts to win them back were unsuccessful but cost us little. The historians have yet to publish the final tally, but posterity will record no great victories."

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Shiro had a notion that the way people won and lost territory over time could be usefully modelled as a system of equations.

Using Sora's relayed example of an interloper challenging a mayor for control of a town, you could imagine that mayors would choose to defend their turf with games that advantaged them in some way. Perhaps they see the interlopers are on the short side and select basketball, drafting their team from the tallest and fastest villagers. Interlopers might preferentially challenge mayors they knew to be weaker basketball coaches, but on the whole this would lead to a world of slow transition, where hostile takeovers are uncommon.

If the ruler of an entire country can be induced to gamble with arbitrary segments of their dominion, this model goes right out the window. A single person's pique becomes a weakness in the regime. Rather than a predictable series of basketball games, with brackets and tournaments and careful statistical analyses, international conflicts of unlimited magnitude are settled at a single stroke on the basketball court.

Shiro mentally terms this the Space Jam Theory of Disboardian Geopolitics, and throws away her original theory in disgust. It's a wonder that Elkia survived the late king's reign at all.

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Stephanie is fully aware that this is ridiculous. She'd planned to do things differently as queen, before that door was closed to her.

"There are sorcerers in Elkia who can answer your other questions about magic. They're always busy, as a rule, but right now they still work for me. I'll introduce you when we have time."

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Sora returns bearing three of the sphere desserts.

"Good news: haggling is still an available action."

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Shiro doesn't do the shopping. If Sora's happy, she's happy for him.

The dessert is chewy and tastes like elderflower jelly beans and hazelnuts. Eating it replenishes some vitality of a kind that Shiro hadn't noticed she was missing. Maybe Elkia doesn't have grocery stories with home delivery, but at least it has tasty desserts.

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Stephanie didn't ask for one and would have said no if she'd been asked. It's not her favorite.

There is, however, a silver lining: Sora thinks she deserves treats. Strictly better than the alternative, in her opinion. She nibbles on it appreciatively.

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"Sho Elkieh ushed to haf a library," Shiro tells her brother, still chewing on the dessert orb. "Losht it in a bet wi' a' angel."

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"Mmm?"

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"The rooms and the books haven't moved out of the castle. They're just… under alternative management." One that doesn't issue library cards to humans and enforces volume rules with magic.

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"Add reclaiming the library to the agenda." If Elkia doesn't have an internet, the royal library is going to be essential for their future plans. None of the other towns in this country are large enough to have a library, and the concierge at the Railbird's Perch didn't think there were any public libraries in Elkia City. This library looks like the only repository of Disboard knowledge available to them, short of tracking down human experts and asking them questions.

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"That's— I wouldn't—"

Stephanie grimaces. She needs to phrase this carefully if she wants to get her point across.

"The library belongs to an angel. Angels are a greater race: old, clever, and very magical. When challenged they exclusively play word games—"

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"What type of word games? Semantic or orthographic?"

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"Uh. Both? Either way, leaving aside the difficulty of winning, you two don't have anything equal in value to the entire library, and you don't speak—"

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"Wrong and wrong."

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What is with these two? Are they incapable of behaving like normal people, or are they doing this deliberately?

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Incapable.

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Deliberately.

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With full bellies, they proceed to the gates of the castle. A line of people in single file snakes under the open portcullis and through the arcades on the street. It's moving quickly, but they'll be waiting for a few minutes nonetheless.

The humans here range from Shiro's age to elderly. Most have deep tans and the characteristic oversized hats that seem so common in Elkia City. Most are content to walk silently, although a few of them seem to be travelling in pairs or trios and have taken to whispering while they await their turn.

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Stephanie deposits Sora and Shiro at the back of the queue and disappears into the castle for a moment, returning quickly with a rolled sheet of parchment in one hand. Rank hath its privileges.

None of the people in line comment on her presence, apart from a few respectful gestures. News of her loss to Chloe Zell hasn't hit the rumor mill yet, and won't be in the broadsheets until tomorrow morning. This may be her last public appearance where people associate her with the throne.

Or it may not. She's feeling lucky.

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The parchment reads as follows:

Succession Tournament — Official Rules

  1. The succession tournament is a no limit hold 'em poker event. The winner of the tournament will be crowned as ruler of Elkia. There are no other prizes.
  2. The tournament will be played according to customary no limit hold 'em rules. Players are advised to use standard action terminology: "bet", "raise", "call", "check", "fold", "all in". Players are advised to leave their hole cards face-down when not being read at the beginning of the hand.
  3. Entry is open to all humans at no cost. The initial chip stack is 5,000. Re-entry is not permitted.
  4. The small blind begins at 25 and the big blind begins at 50. Blind raises will be structured based on the total attendance for the tournament.
  5. Players are limited to a maximum of six per table.
  6. New players arriving at a table must begin play in the big blind position. Players returning to a table must begin in the big blind position or pay the total amount from missed blinds into the pot as an ante to resume play.
  7. Physical chip action takes precedence over verbal action. Players are entitled to an accurate count of the number of chips in the pot. In the event of disagreement, the floor will stop play and provide this information.
  8. In the event of a misdeal, the hand will be declared dead and replayed. In the event of a four-card flop, one such card will be selected at random while face-down as a burn card, and the remaining three used as the flop. This method will also be used for two-card turns and rivers.
  9. In the event of other irregularities, the floor will adjudicate.
  10. Cheating will result in an immediate forfeit. Cheating includes the following: colluding with other players at the table, stealing chips, transferring chips not issued for the tournament into the tournament, card marking, card substitution, card manipulation, soft play, chip dumping, and acquiring information which is conventionally secret in poker through the use of magic, device, external communication, or other means.

Let's all have fun and play together!

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Sora holds the parchment up to his face, giving it an exaggerated rotation. "Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Yup, still can't read. Stephanie, would you do the honors?"

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This will attract very little attention from the other people in the queue, if any. Two unwashed peasants turning out to be illiterate is among the least surprising things that could be going on. Stephanie takes the parchment back and reads the rules out loud for their benefit.

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"'Let's all have fun and play together'? Is that really one of the rules?"

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"No. It's just an expression."

It's a traditional comment to make after agreeing on the rules and before the start of the game. The pithiness of it may have been lost in translation.

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The line advances. The trio are soon in the great hall of the castle, a vast and multi-lobed room with high vaulted ceilings like a European cathedral. The floor and the walls are made of the same sparkling white rock, illuminated by copious recessed windows and the occasional oil lamp.

The centerpiece of the great hall is a fountain. Water cascades from the boughs of gold and silver trees into an artificial pond filled with ornate fish in a plethora of shapes and colors. The rest of the space is occupied by felted oval tables, each surrounded by six high-backed wooden chairs. A fleet of uniformed men and women are engaged with moving the tables into place, setting up chairs, and clearing the floors to make more space. The queue winds between the tables, around the fountain, and ascends the stairs at the back of the hall to a landing covered in secretarial desks.

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The man behind the first desk is thirty-odd years old and wears a finely-tailored suit with absolutely zero embellishments or frills. On his left is a stack of papers, and on his right is a glass inkwell.

For as long as Sora and Shiro have been able to hear him speak his voice has been listless and cold, though at the sight of Princess Stephanie at the front of the line he manages to speak with some warmth.

"Are you here to register for the tournament, or do you have other business?"

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"Here to register," Sora says. "Although, and I do hate to impose, I have an unusual request to make at the same time. Would it be possible to join the tournament as a team?"

He waves his hand to indicate that he means himself and Shiro.

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Stephanie will stand next to him and look aristocratic, in case that helps.

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That's certainly unusual.

"Young man, have you ever before played in a poker tournament with the young miss, as you've described?"

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"I certainly have."

They don't have any WSOP bracelets, as that would require leaving the apartment, but they've played at least half a million poker hands together online.

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"You understand, then, that if one of you happens to be away from the table while the other plays, your opponent need only mention that the missing player is passing information in order to disqualify you?"

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"Presuming that is the case. But, such an accusation holds no weight if it happens to be untrue, yes?"

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"I suppose…"

He glances at Princess Stephanie.

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"…very well, sir. Your names?"

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Don't bother, Shiro wants to say. Just leave the space blank.

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"Sora, Shiro."

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The castellan copies this down in the same unfamiliar script the rules are written in.

"And now, sir, we shall play a game of Rock Paper Scissors, wager to be the truthful answer to a single question regarding the tournament. Err, from each of you. You shall choose paper, and I scissors."

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Well, well, well. Looks like there's at least one person in this castle who isn't asleep at the wheel.

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Both players raise their fists and speak in chorus.

"Rock, paper, scissors!"

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Paper.

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Scissors.

"Is this your first time entering the Succession Tournament?"

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"Yes!" Shiro snarls involuntarily.

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"It is," Sora says mildly, a beat later.

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"Very good, sir."

The castellan reaches under the desk and retrieves a burlap sack the size of a man's head, with a single symbol printed on the side. It clinks enticingly when laid against the table.

"Your starting stack, sir. Five thousand in all. Elkia wishes you the best of luck."

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"Thank you," he says, taking it. The chip bag is light enough to carry, yet satisfyingly hefty. He approves.

"You should register while we're here," he adds casually, looking at Stephanie.

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Huh?

Sora knows that Stephanie can't play in this tournament. That's the whole reason they sought her out– no, she doesn't know that, she just assumed it was the case.

Did she mention it while they were still at the Railbird's Perch? Yes, to the reporters, and Shiro was in the crowd but she doesn't remember Sora being there…

The thing that ultimately matters here is what she decided to wager against Zell, namely her right to participate in the tournament. Stephanie did not wager her right to register for the tournament, so there's nothing stopping her from registering and simply not participating. Sora either doesn't know this and has an ulterior motive, or he does and he has an ulterior ulterior motive. Maybe he's planning to cheat somehow.

Either way, she's holding up the line.

"Good idea," she says wryly.

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Princess Stephanie ought to have collected her starting stack in the morning, when the line was shorter. She lives in the castle, there was nothing stopping her. He is much too professional to comment on this.

The castellan adds her name to the list, verifies under oath that this is the first time she's tried to register, and passes her an equally large sack of poker chips.

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And they'll be on their way!

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The next stop is the ambassador suite. Stephanie leads them further into the bowels of the castle, through dim passageways and up spiral staircases, until they reach a spacious corridor on the third floor lined with iron-banded wooden doors. Their destination is the penultimate room, which is again labelled by carvings in the adjacent stone in a language than neither Sora nor Shiro can read.

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The room is palatial and richly appointed. A four-poster bed with indigo sheets dominates the space, along with a night table and a writing desk. Light streams in from the far side, which opens on to a separate solarium overlooking the city; for evenings and nights there are candelabras situated in appropriate spots. In the middle of the room are a coffee table and two chairs, next to a bricked-up fireplace.

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BED.

Shiro flops directly onto the mattress and checks out.

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"This is where the ambassador from Rapture would stay, back when we were on cordial terms with the ocean-dwellers. They haven't maintained a relationship with Elkia since before my grandfather's time. I host guests here instead."

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"You said sirens couldn't walk. How did they get here, or do anything once they arrived?"

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"It was a succubus. There's only one kingdom beneath the waves. We have a giant fishbowl too, just in case. I'll have the maids bring it out, if you fancy having a private pool."

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"Tempting, but we'll pass." For now.

Sora sits down on a chair and runs his hands through his hair. There are a lot of quests in the log to get through, a lot of lore to ingest, and a lot of battles to win. They have to win the tournament first, so he's going to worry exclusively about that for the time being. He ends up staring at a hanging tapestry depicting a mermaid and a man in shallow water shaking hands beneath Disboard's strange green moon, running through everything he knows about Texas hold 'em in his head.

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Stephanie sits down as well.

This is an excellent time to resume her meditations, although knowing what Sora wants her to do takes precedence. She decides on waiting silently for a bit before saying anything.

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Mostly he appreciates the chance to sit down himself. He's had a rough go of it over the past few days.

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"Why did you want me to register?" she asks eventually. "I lost my right to play in the tournament."

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Sora grunts softly. "I wouldn't have you playing poker with us even if you could. You would lose."

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Insinuating negative things about someone's skill at games is a mortal insult of the highest caliber. Where does he get off, talking to her like that?

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Legends of Summoned Heroes are replete with cultural misunderstandings. He clearly doesn't mean anything by it, other than the factual truth of the matter.

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You will defend your honor, Princess Stephanie!

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"I think you'll find that I can hold my own, if need be," she says primly.

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"Tell me how to play poker," Sora says abruptly, turning to face her. "Tell me, when you're sitting at the table, what decisions you make and why. Tell me what you think about when you play games."

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What a reasonable question, provided that Sora is missing the subtext instead of ignoring it in order to needle her. Nevertheless:

"In hold 'em you're dealt two hole cards. Good hole cards are pairs, two consecutive cards of the same suit, any two high cards – higher than ten, maybe including ace-nine… If you have bad hole cards, you fold. If you have good hole cards, you bet. If you're playing with a pair or an ace-high, you want the board to come in with sets, and if you're playing with suited connectors you want keep betting if you think you'll get something – two pair, a straight, a flush – and other people are betting too, you want to think about how many chips you have left and whether you can afford to gamble on getting the cards you need to win the hand…"

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Sora continues to stare at her as she trails off.

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What? What does he want???

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He breathes deeply. "Poker is a game of reading your opponent, just like Rock Paper Scissors. Except that's not where you're supposed to start, you're supposed to start at the beginning. I don't know if — do we have a deck of cards around here somewhere?"

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Sora must be joking. Of course there's a deck of cards (and a set of dice, and a chessboard, and various other gaming implements). It's in the night table's drawer.

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Sora will get his hands on it sooner or later. He returns to the table and dumps the cards out of the pack, letting them fall haphazardly.

"In any kind of stud, draw, or community card poker game, the goal is to make the best hand of five cards. If you select any five cards from a fifty-two card deck, that gives you around two and a half million possible hands."

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"Two million, five hundred ninety-eight thousand, nine hundred sixty," Shiro says into the mattress.

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"That's an awfully big number, Stephanie. We're going to start with a smaller one. Grab your chips."

He sweeps almost all of the cards to the side of the table. Three remain: a king, a queen, and a jack. He flips them over and gives them a wash shuffle, then slides them together into a pile.

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Stephanie grabs her chips and leans forward, interested despite herself.

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Sora pulls out a handful of his own white poker chips and stacks them up on the edge.

"We're going to play a game of poker, you and I. We'll strip out everything that makes poker complicated, leaving us with just the basics, and by the end of it you will understand the basic lesson of game theory."

The 'or else' is left unsaid.

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"What are we wagering?"

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"If you win, you learn what I'm about to teach you. If I win, you pay attention while I teach you what you're about to learn."

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These two things are technically equal in value, and therefore valid wagers. She doesn't like it, but she nods anyways.

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"Here are the rules. At the start of the turn, each of us gets one of these cards face-down and makes an ante of one chip. The first player either checks or raises one; if it's a check, the second player can check or raise one, otherwise they fold or call. Player one can call a raise, but once the pot reaches four the betting phase ends immediately. If both of us check or both of us bet, highest card wins. King beats queen, queen beats jack. Otherwise, if one player raises and the other folds, that player keeps the pot. Any questions?"

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"How many chips are we starting with?"

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"As many as you like. We're not worrying about the「M-ratio」for now, just individual hands."

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M-ratio: something poker-related. Thank you Sora, very useful. She stacks out a handful of red chips, roughly the same number as Sora's white chips.

"Let's all have fun and play together!" she says with false cheer.

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Sora deals each of them one card face-down, then slides his ante into the middle of the table. He checks his own card by bending the edge up by the absolute bare minimum necessary to read the symbol, then sets it back down and adds a second chip to the pot.

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Ante up. Stephanie checks her own card. It's the jack. Odds of winning this hand: 0%.

"Fold."

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Sora collects the pot, then deals another hand. He pays the ante, checks his card in the same fashion, then raises again.

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"You can't do that! It's my deal!"

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"I didn't say we would alternate. I'm going to keep acting first until we've played a few hands."

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Nah, that's cheating. Sora forfeits.

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"…Stephanie, how exactly are accusations of cheating arbitrated?"

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Ah, now the shoe's on the other foot. Stephanie will savor the moment of superiority before answering.

"When you accuse a player of cheating you have to allude to how. Anything that violates the agreed-upon rules of the game is definitely cheating. Things that violate the presumed rules of the game… depends. If you're paranoid you can go around specifying that rock crushes scissors cuts paper covers rock every time you play, no one will hold it against you, but you can just say 'the game is Rock Paper Scissors' and that will do. It's not possible to redefine the outcome as 'rock tears paper, paper covers scissors, scissors stabs rock' midway through a best-of-three, even if you didn't clarify at the start."

She is speaking from experience, naturally. Everyone tries it at least once when they're little.

"You explained the rules of Idiot Poker as they differ, but there are still presumed rules like 'only you can bet using your own chips' and 'changing your call to a fold after showdown is not allowed'. No matter how fastidious you are about defining the rules of a game, there will still be some dumb edge cases that are covered by the presumed rules."

Again, this she knows from experience.

"There are also unwritten rules, which differ from presumed rules in that they're more ambiguous given the premise of the game. This is less of a problem for humans, since we can't use magic. Uh, if you imagine a chess game between two elves, and they didn't agree on a rule to not use magic, one of them could read the other one's mind and that may or may not be cheating. It would be a presumed rule in poker, that you don't know what your opponent's cards are, but chess doesn't have a presumption of secret information like that. The human equivalent would be… I don't know, maybe participating in a race after eating a magic berry that makes you run faster. Violating unwritten rules is usually not construed as cheating, so unwritten rules are often codified as written rules. If you subscribe to the 'collective cultural understanding' hypothesis of what constitutes cheating, it's possible that all the major chess tournaments specifically banning telepathy have made it so that mind-reading is more of an unwritten rule than a presumed rule for chess tournaments that don't ban it."

Human inability to use magic is a handicap on par with agreeing to only play paper, in Stephanie's opinion.

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"What stops people from constantly accusing their opponents of cheating?"

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"Nothing. It won't help if you don't accuse them of a particular type of cheating, though, and inventing rules violations can interfere with your concentration on the match." She pauses. "It's also widely believed that repeatedly making unjustified accusations increases the odds of future accusations of cheating going against you. I realize that from your perspective this sounds like a superstition, but from my perspective it's more of a 'we used to have good statistics on this subject but not anymore' and I don't know how to tell which of those is more true."

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"Understandable."

Not having Wikipedia is inconvenient. Not having any of your scholarly records whatsoever must be a nightmare.

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"Also if you get into a blowout argument with your opponent over the correct interpretation of the rules sometimes Tet shows up to make a ruling but that only happens once or twice a year, I swear."

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Sora's Understanding of the Rules

  1. Accusations of cheating must include details.
  2. Explicit rules take precedence.
  3. Obvious but unstated extensions of the rules are also enforced.
  4. Unstated rules form a spectrum from 'obvious extension' (e.g. there must be a full deck of cards in the hand) to 'not an extension' (e.g. using steroids). The latter must be enumerated.
  5. The crossover point on the spectrum is unclear but often involves magic.
  6. Gaming the system is discouraged.
  7. Tet has appointed himself the referee.

"Got it. Thank you for clarifying. As promised, you've won the right to hear what I'm about to say, so let's keep playing until I get around to saying it. Same rules, but this time I go first until we break to discuss."

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Stephanie would tell Sora to shove his prize where the sun doesn't shine, if she had less of a self-preservation instinct. She collects the cards and deals another hand of Idiot Poker, quietly fuming.

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They play another twenty-seven hands. Eventually it becomes clear that Stephanie has more than an inkling of how to play this game correctly. Sora wins a little more off Stephanie than the reverse, but their stacks are still close.

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"Good," he says, gathering up the deck to signal a break. "So, same question as before. What's your thought process like when you're playing this game in second position?"

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"There are six possibilities for me: either you check or you raise, multiplied by three cards. If I have the king I always call or raise, and if I have the jack and you raise first, I always fold. Also, if I have the queen I never raise. Either you have the jack and you'll fold, which doesn't help, or you have the king and I'll lose. Four of the possibilities are nailed down. The other two possibilities are having the queen when you raise, or having the jack when you check."

She takes the queen out of the pile to illustrate her point.

"If I have the queen and you raise, you're either bluffing with the jack or trying to get me to call with the queen versus your king. I can't fold every time, otherwise you can bluff me with impunity, so I have to call at least some of the time. I tried to do it randomly, since I couldn't tell whether you were bluffing by your body language."

She swaps the queen for the jack.

"If I have the jack and you check, you're either holding the king and trying to get me to bluff with the jack or holding the queen and gambling that I have the jack and not the king."

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Sora raises his hand. "Good so far. At this stage I'll tell you something you'd have noticed anyways soon enough: I never raise with the queen either, for the same reason. If you have the jack you'll fold and I gain nothing I wouldn't have gained by checking, and if you have the king you'll call and I'll lose more chips than I might have otherwise. Open raising with the queen is a 'weakly dominated strategy' – no matter which card your opponent has, you can always do at least as well or better by checking."

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That makes sense.

"Right, so… if I have the jack and you check, you're either holding the king and trying to get me to bluff with the jack, since you know the thing about the queen never raising, or you have the queen and you're doing the queen thing. So in that scenario raising isn't great, since half of the time you're guaranteed to call with the king and the other half of the time you'll have the queen and you might call; but if I check I'm guaranteed to lose. I need to raise and bluff having the king at least some of the time, otherwise my predictability lets you raise with the queen every time."

Stephanie's Game Tree
  Stephanie's Cards
  King Queen Jack
Sora Checks Raise Check Mostly Check?
Sora Raises Call Mostly Fold? Fold
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"Interesting. You're right about the queen and the jack, but can you tell me any more? Is there a specific probability you should use to decide how often you want to raise with the jack or call with the queen?"

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"Half… of the time…?"

That doesn't sound right, but she's not sure and there's no penalty for guessing wrong.

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"Keep what you just learned in mind. We're going to play with you in the first position now; see if you can spot the pattern for actions that aren't forced. Player one never raises with the queen and will always fold when facing a raise with the jack, so don't worry about those anymore."

Sora gives the truncated deck a wash and a shuffle, then deals each of them a single card face-down. He looks at Stephanie expectantly.

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Ante up.

Stephanie's card is the queen. No need to think, this is always a check. If Sora checks back, she has a 50% chance of winning, as pure as it gets.

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Sora raises. His face is set in stone.

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Well, it was fifty-fifty.

… wait, no it's not. Half of the time he has the king and always raises, but the other half of the time he has the jack and might raise, hoping she thinks he has the king and folds. So, how often does Sora do that?

Stephanie doesn't believe it's half of the time, mostly because Sora gave her the 'are you sure' look when she said that, but it can't be far off. If it's true, or close to true, she wins this hand one time in four if she calls. That's probably a good fraction of the time to call, then.

She decides to pick a number at random, and if the positive residue after dividing by four is zero she'll call. Random number, random number… there are 52 cards in the deck. Sure.

52 ÷ 4 = 0. She calls.

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Sora flips up the king and collects the pot.

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Not entirely unexpected. It's possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. No use being mad about it.

Trouble is, though, she's pretty sure it was a mistake.

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Ante up. Sora deals Stephanie the king this time.

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Aha, the hand she's been thinking about. As player one she has the power to check and hope for a raise from Sora with the jack, or to open raise and get a call from Sora's queen, either of which nets her two chips. She's guaranteed one chip at minimum, but if she doesn't fight for two she won't make up for all the hands she's lost with the jack and queen.

Will Sora call a raise? He definitely won't with the jack, and he might with the queen. She probably wants to raise anyways, since she can't extract extra value from jacks and can from queens. Sora might have been doing that in first position, come to think of it. But she can't raise all the time, because if she does Sora will stop calling and she won't be able to farm him for double the chips when he has the queen.

How often is he going to bluff with the jack in this position? Not often. Stephanie is weirdly confident that it's less than half the time, given how fraught bluffing is in poker. So, a quarter of the time. She gets two chips by raising one time in every eight, so that's how often she'll do it.

Random number time! There are thirty pieces in backgammon, divided by eight leaves six. She raises.

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Sora calls.

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Yes! Stephanie shows the king and rakes in the pot.

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Another one.

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It's the jack. She's going to check-fold most of the time, but if she never raises Sora can exploit her. Time to make a decision.

… this is just the inverse of the last decision. She'll raise one quarter of the time. Five nations on the continent divided by four leaves one. Check.

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He has the queen. Check. Oh, convenient, Stephanie had the jack. The pot's his.

They'll play a few more hands with Stephanie in first position, but not too many. He wants her to catch a glimpse of the underlying math, and for that she'll have to play a lot of hands on both sides.

… she's pausing before she plays the jack or the king but checking immediately with the queen. Sora's trying not to pay attention to the tell, but it's like trying not to pay attention to the beam of a flashlight in the dark. He deliberately calls with the jack once, just to tell himself that he's being fair.

A few rounds later, he decides it's time for the practicum.

"Hopefully you've got a strategy in mind. We're going to play for real now, alternating turns, and we're going to speed it up. We'll stop once it's obvious."

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"Once what's obvious?"

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"You'll see. It'll be obvious."

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They commence, rotating position with each hand. Neither player speaks, they simply tap the table or push chips into the pot in silence. Once they get into a rhythm each hand takes about five seconds to complete. The game starts to noticeably progress.

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Ah, it is indeed obvious. Despite the simplicity of the game and the fact that neither of them is monopolizing first position, Stephanie is slowly bleeding chips to Sora. She varies how she plays the hands that call for probabilistic choices, but it's hard to tell whether it's doing any good. This is a loss in every way that matters.

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"That should be enough," Sora says, once he has twice as many chips as Stephanie. "Let's talk. How did you decide which probabilities to use in your strategy?"

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"I tried to copy you towards the end," Stephanie admits. "I think you have to call with the queen or bluff with the jack less than half the time, and in first position you raise with the king the same number of times you bluff with the jack. I don't know – is there an exact number at all?"

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Sora smiles. "There is, in a sense! I'm not surprised you didn't find it, but I wanted to let you look. You can't succeed if you don't try. Thank you for trying! Let's talk about second position with the queen first."

He slides the queen into the center of the table, then pauses.

"Whose picture is this on the card? The queen of diamonds I'm familiar with has a portrait of a woman named Rachel on it."

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"Kainath, goddess of forests. The king of clubs is Ocain and the jack of hearts is Alram. Can you tell me the numbers now?"

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"Yes, sorry. So, you're player two and you have the queen. You want to avoid losing money to me when I have the king, so one thing you could do is always fold when I raise. Always doing the same thing in a particular situation is called a 'pure strategy', and there are a lot of those in this game. But, if you use the pure strategy of always folding your queens, I will notice. That would let me use the pure strategy of always bluffing with the jack, letting me beat you every time with two of the three cards. You can't let that happen. But you also can't call every time – I'll notice that too, much faster, and then I'll use the pure strategy of never bluffing with the jack. One of the 'mixed strategies' somewhere between 0% folding and 100% folding is a「Nash equilibrium」that leaves me indifferent to—"

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"A 'Nash equilibrium'," Stephanie repeats slowly, sounding out the words. The phrase "næʃ ekwɪˈlɪbriəm" has failed to translate. It involves math, somehow.

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"… okay! On the off chance that we've just struck paydirt I need you to lose a game of Rock Paper Scissors. You're wagering away your right to share this knowledge with anyone until I say otherwise."

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Stephanie's indignance at this treatment is vastly outweighed by her curiosity about the forbidden gambling knowledge. She plays scissors to Sora's rock, wagering her silence on the matter, and commits to paying attention to what he has to say.

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"Thank you," Sora says. "If that comes in handy later you'll be glad I did it, and if it doesn't it won't matter much, I promise. Moving on! In a— it's a single idea named after a person, that might be the problem. We'll call it a 'stable equilibrium', does that translate?"

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It does.

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"A stable equilibrium is one where your opponent is indifferent between all of their options. It's not the best strategy unless both players are using the stable equilibrium – remember, if you always fold the queen I can do much better by bluffing the jack every time – but if you use the stable equilibrium as player two then the best I can do is use player one's stable equilibrium. You've made all of my other options equal or worse. If I have other equally good options we'd say I have multiple stable equilibria; otherwise I have just one."

Is it a waste of his phone's battery life to write this down using the whiteboard app? Maybe. Is it worth it? It will be, if Stephanie is picking up what he's putting down.

"There are different ways of finding mixed strategy stable equilibria, but here's an intuitive way to think about it. If I have the jack and check, my 'expected value' is losing one chip no matter what. If I raise, it's losing two chips if you call with either card or winning one if you fold, which you'd only do with the queen. So you need to call my bluff with the exact probability that make the 'expected value' of the bluff equal to losing a chip, which is minus one. Since the value of bluffing into a king is minus two, the expected value you want when you're holding the queen is zero, and your equilibrium call probability is one third."

sora → J

check EV = −1

bluff | Q → ⅓ ⋅ (−2) + ⅔ ⋅ (1) = 0

bluff | K → (−2)

bluff EV = ½ ⋅ (−2) + ½ ⋅ (0) = −1

check = bluff :D

"… and that last symbol is a smiley face, don't worry about it."

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Stephanie can't read Sora's native language any more than he can read hers, but he's talking out loud as he goes. She can remember what the text means.

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"Then, suppose I have the king. If I check I either win a single chip if you check back or two chips if you try to bluff me with the jack, and if I open raise I either win a single chip if you fold or two chips if you call with the queen. You need your calling ratio with the queen and your bluffing ratio with the jack to set those expected values equal to one another. Calling one third of the time with the queen is optimal if you bluff with the jack into my king one third of the time as well. That bluff ratio is also optimal, I'll show you that in a minute, but for now just take my word for it. Here's the math."

sora → K

check | Q → (1)

check | J → ⅔ ⋅ (1) + ⅓ ⋅ (2) = 4⁄3 EXPLANATION SOON

check EV = (4⁄3 + 1) ÷ 2 = 7⁄6

raise | J → (1)

raise | Q → ⅔ ⋅ (1) + ⅓ ⋅ (2) = 4⁄3

raise EV = (4⁄3 + 1) ÷ 2 = 7⁄6

check = raise !!!

"As you can see, if I'm not lying about bluffing with the jack one third of the time being part of your stable equilibrium, this strategy makes my ability to choose worse than useless. I lose an average of one chip per jack and gain just over one chip per king. My only hope to do better is to deal myself more kings than jacks, which won't happen over lots of hands unless I'm cheating."

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"Yes?"

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"… I need to digest this," Stephanie says diplomatically. She's picking up what Sora is putting down, but perhaps not as fast as she'd like. "Tell me why bluffing with the jack one third of the time is part of my stable equilibrium?"

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"No. First we consider player one. This is a little more complicated. I need to decide how often to value bet the king and bluff the jack. You have a pure strategy for playing the jack if I raise and a pure strategy for playing the king no matter what I do, so we need to look at what I'm going to do against your queen range. If you fold to my raise you always lose a single chip, and if you call your expected value is winning two chips against the jack or losing two chips against the king. To be in equilibrium you need to be indifferent between calling and folding, so I need to set the expected value of your call to losing a chip. What should I do?"

He almost continues explaining, but decides that Stephanie seems appropriately invested in the lesson. She can try again. As a treat.

"Feel free to use the cell phone if you want."

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Stephanie's enthusiasm for the thing has diminished somewhat now that she's paid the price. She'll use it to write down her reasoning though; thinking about what Sora thinks Stephanie thinks Sora thinks when he open raises is almost enough recursion to give her a headache.

There are two unknowns in this question. She decides to use the suit of clubs to represent the odds that Sora has the king, followed by the suit of hearts to represent the odds of the jack (this is not the convention she learned from her tutors, but she wants to cut down on the number of symbols she has to explain and it lets her use the nifty colored quill tool a little more).

stephanie → Q

fold EV = −1

call | K ⋅ (−2)

call | J ⋅ (2)

call EV = −2 ÷ ( + )  +  2 ÷ ( + )

The expected value of a fold is always losing one chip, but the expected value of a call apparently forms a surface. She frowns. "There are infinite possibilities. How do I find the right solution?"

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"Yup! Clubs and hearts could be lots of things, if this were just an algebra problem. But it's also a gambling problem, which means there are some tools we can use to search through a smaller space. Do you want a hint?"

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Stephanie was an unusually bright child and received a stellar education growing up, which is why she has been following along up until this point. However, pedagogy for future queens does not cover measure theory mathematics. She would like a hint, please.

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"The first thing we'll do is say that clubs and hearts have to be positive real numbers, to satisfy the first axiom of probability. Complex and negative probabilities aren't meaningless if you're doing「quantum mechanics」, but they don't come up in games."

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Yet.

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"Multiply both sides by clubs-plus-hearts to reduce it to real solutions only." That should be enough of a hint, he thinks.

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She does this.

−2 ÷ ( + ) + 2 ÷ ( + ) = −1

−2 + 2 = −

3 =

"I still don't have a solution," she complains.

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"That looks like a solution to me! I'm in a stable equilibrium if I open raise the king three times as often as I open raise the jack. I don't just have one stable equilibrium mixed strategy, I have an infinite number of them."

Well, an infinite number of them as long as the odds of him bluffing are between zero and one third. All outcomes must add up to one, unless you're in a really existential thought experiment where the law of total probability doesn't apply.

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Oh, this one is going to be fun.

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"You still haven't told me why I should bluff a third of the time, or what you should do if you have the queen. You always check to start, but what if I raise?"

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"I've given you everything you need to answer those questions yourself."

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Stephanie has not heard of Socratic questioning by that name, but she is familiar with the concept and is growing to despise it. She was promised this answer, dang it!

She starts to write out the probabilities on the cell phone when she realizes that Sora wasn't exaggerating when he said he'd given her everything she needed.

"I have to raise with the king every time, and my king-and-jack logic is the same as yours: I raise with the king three times as often. That means the probability of bluffing the jack has to be one third!"

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"Yes! Excellent! That's exactly right, Stephanie. Only one more position to look at: what's my stable equilibrium strategy if I have the queen in first position and I'm facing a raise from you?"

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Sora loses one chip if he folds, gains two if he calls a bluff, and loses two if he calls and she has the king. Conditional probability: Sora holds the queen half the time, he checks some fraction of the time with the king and more often with the jack but every time with the queen… except her payout doesn't vary with the rate that he plays either of the other cards, they just proved that, meaning his call probability is the same as hers when holding the queen.

"You call with the queens a third of the time, just like me."

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Well done, grasshopper. Sora takes the phone back and starts drawing.

"Here's my perspective as player one. The expected value of a king is a little more than one chip, the expected value of a queen is losing a third of a chip, and the expected value of a jack is losing a chip."

(7⁄6 −⅓ −1) ÷ 3 = −1⁄18

"For player two it's the opposite – every round your expected value is gaining one eighteenth of a chip. And that's all there is to it. Any questions?"

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"How did you find these numbers in the first place, just by guessing? And how do you change them when your opponent isn't playing perfectly?"

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"With 「linear programming」."

Shiro may or may not have been napping. She rolls over, staring balefully at Stephanie from beneath a curtain of greasy hair.

"There are sixty-four possible strategies. Define a square matrix of that size for the expected values of each strategy versus each other strategy, then multiply it by negative one to get the expected values for the other player. It's a two player zero-sum game, so you restrict your answers to positive reals that sum to one and take the minimax of both matrices to get the Nash equilibrium."

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"Thank you, Jane von Neumann, but regular mortals don't prove basic results using matricies with four thousand elements."

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"If you strip out dominated and weakly dominated strategies it's under a hundred elements, which incidentally is also how to exploit your opponent when they aren't playing optimally. You don't even need a calculator to take the transpose of— why are you wasting the battery on that?! There are no electrical sockets in this castle!"

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"Some people are visual learners!" he defends himself. Then he looks askance at Stephanie. "Princess, there are two reasons I wanted to play this game. The first one was to show you the game theory. This whole business of minimizing your opponent's expected value isn't just how to play this game, it's how to play all games. With one bit of hidden information, limit betting, two players, zero sum, the solution is small enough to show you. If you add more cards, more players, change the bet sizes, the algebra gets more complicated but the ultimate strategy is the same. This is why the cell phone is a better chess player than you: it has an algorithm for looking at the expected value of every move and plays to minimize your gains over the long run. Or maximize its own gains, those are equivalent."

He switches the cell phone off.

"The other reason was to show you why you aren't going to play poker, even if we figured out how to get around your wager. You suck. Empirically. If Shiro and I doubled down and taught you as much as we could until the sun rose, you wouldn't retain half of it and wouldn't have the experience to apply the other half correctly. You're in a supporting role tomorrow. The end."

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Stephanie is disinclined to shy away from the truth in her heart. Facing the fear you cannot name is one of the ancient arts passed down by humans through the centuries, and an essential one to master if you hope to be queen. There is no room for stupid failure when your decisions affect the lives of your subjects. Still, it would be hard to avoid this conclusion even if she wanted to, not when Sora has spent the last hour hammering it home. The stack of chips on his side of the table is taller than hers. 'The end' indeed.

She understands why Sora swore her to secrecy, now. This information is not generally known in Elkia, nor in the Eastern Union, nor Rapture, and it's unlikely to be widespread anywhere else on the continent (Elkia has few non-human residents but it's hardly isolationist). The secret of 'minimizing expected value' is key to creating perfect strategies for any number of commonly-played games. It's a superweapon.

"Thank you," she says shortly. "What is your plan, then? Surely you have one."

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"My plan is to wash off, find some clothes for tomorrow, eat dinner, practice poker with Shiro, and get eight hours of sleep."

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"I don't— yes, all of those things, but why did you want me to join the tournament?"

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There is no particular reason to answer this question. Stephanie's assistance is both superfluous and completely assured; her active participation is barely required.

However, there's something to be said for keeping your teammates appraised of the plan. He tells her.

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"Have you never heard the expression 'only break one rule at a time'?" Stephanie asks incredulously.

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"Only break one law at a time, maybe. Game rules are different. The more rules are involved, the harder it will be to pin down exactly what's going on. Besides, I'm not breaking the rules – I'm interpreting them creatively."

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"The original plan was to take your chips and use them to augment our starting stack," Shiro informs her. "In real poker, the ratio between your stack and the blinds determines how aggressively you can play. It's possible to push stronger players out of tournaments by extracting chips from weaker players and using your resources to go set mining – we wanted to avoid that, at least until we got past the first few tables and skill started to dominate luck."

Upon hearing this, Stephanie is enlightened as to what the M-ratio is.

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"And you didn't think anyone would notice you sitting at the table with twice as many chips as you were supposed to have?"

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"You'd be surprised. It's easy to develop tunnel vision when you're sitting at the poker table. No, the reason we can't do that is because it's probably cheating. Chip dumping is explicitly against the rules; we weren't planning chip dumping per se, since you aren't playing in the tournament, but receiving chips from someone directly rather than at the table via subterfuge sounds like a presumed extension of the chip dumping rule, rather than an unwritten rule."

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"And your real plan isn't cheating because…?"

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"Because it complies with both the spirit and the wording of the rules?"

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"We'll need more information on how cheating works to be sure," Sora admits. "Otherwise, what she said."

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Stephanie is just manifestly unqualified to judge whether this is true. Sora and Shiro are undeniably better at games than her – well, Sora is, Shiro could conceivably be drafting off Sora's experience – but this plan does not have the ring of sound reasoning to it. Ordinarily that would be enough for her to call it quits. Her grandfather will be remembered forever for not giving up well beyond every indication that he should, and Stephanie is determined to avoid having the same legacy.

Unfortunately, she's not calling the shots anymore. She might have to suck it up and hope everything pans out.

"Do you want me to show you to the baths?" she asks. Washing off usually helps her cool down, both figuratively and physically.

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Shiro is wrapped in a film of dried sweat and a dress that hasn't seen the inside of a washing machine in months. Her long, oleaginous hair is unkempt enough to warrant shears. The soles of her feet are stained soot-black from walking barefoot across the earth and sleeping rough, complete with dried bloodstains and blisters from the same. You would need neither eyes nor ears to detect her approach.

"No thank you," she tells Stephanie.

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Sora is going to have to be the big brother today, it seems. This is his least favorite part of the job.

"Shiro, we should—"

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"Get a head start on practicing for tomorrow? Tell you what, each of us will pick ten hands from that multi-table tournament we played a while back and analyze whether—"

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"Whether they could've been played better if we were present at the casino for the event? I dunno, I bet they'd throw us out if we came to an IRL tournament without freshening up a little. Getting banned from the premises is bad for your ROI, wouldn't recommend it."

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Shiro makes a face. This is one of those arguments she isn't going to win, which means the best she can do is put up a fighting retreat.

"Do I have to?" she whines.

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You are going to have a bath if it's the last thing I do, child.

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"Do you have a laundry service we can use while we're bathing?" Sora asks, ignoring Shiro.

(Sora learned this technique from a book on parenting. It doesn't work every time, but it has a certain appeal even when it doesn't.)

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"Laundry runs on an overnight schedule. I'll have the staff lay out an evening wardrobe for you two while we're occupied."

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"Perfect. We'll blend right in. Lead the way, Stephanie!"

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Shiro debates forcing Sora to physically pick her up off the bed and carry her to the bathing facilities. On the one hand, she feels like it. On the other hand, it would embarrass Sora in front of the only person they've interacted with beyond pleasantries in what feels like forever. Decisions, decisions.

"Urgh," she groans, and rolls off the bed.

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The baths are up on the sixth floor. One of Elkia's lofty aqueducts delivers water to the castle through a hole in the wall linked to a cistern, drained via copper pipes into every washroom and kitchen and from there down into the sewers. The entire system is gravity-operated. The baths are located nearby, underneath a second cistern kept bubbling-hot day and night, and consist of a series of sunken pits flooded with slow-flowing steamy water. The entire floor of the castle is doused in the scent of smoking incense and fresh flowers.

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Shiro sits in one such bath, hunched over so far that her face is submerged up to her nostrils. The water drifting past her body is ever so slightly discolored, though it's more because she's in the bath than because she's bathing. Her technique for washing herself is probably best compared to a barkeep lethargically polishing a chipped mug with a grimy dishrag, although in her case it's actually a grimy bath sponge.

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It's belatedly crossing Stephanie's mind that Shiro might have some kind of disability. Normal girls her age do not need assistance cleaning themselves. It does happen on occasion that a person is enormously gifted in one area and deficient in another… no, she's just a precocious semi-feral child being recalcitrant.

Nevertheless, Stephanie is stuck with her for the time being, and there is no way she's letting her out of this room without being presentable.

She gives her another three minutes of moping around aimlessly, then gets out of the water and hops over to Shiro's bath. "Here, let me help you with that."

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The indignity of this almost stirs Shiro to action!

Almost. There's no one else here to witness the princess humiliating her, so she's going to take the path of least resistance and let the humiliation proceed.

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Stephanie runs a fingertip across Shiro's shoulder, leaving behind a visible trail. She shudders. Time to use the strong soap.

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Shiro tolerates being lathered and scrubbed within an inch of her life with minimal whingeing, although it does make her wonder why this whole affair doesn't count as violence. It's not as if she's happy to be here. The consent point at which abuse tips over into violence and becomes forbidden is lower than she naively expected.

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Stephanie (regrettably) cannot get away with dunking Shiro's head underwater, but she can grab a bucket and dump sudsy water over her hair, which is almost as good. That's about where the line is, when it comes to violence.

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"Mmm, had a question about cheating," she says, tilting her head down to keep the soap out of her eyes. "Cheating is – breaking 'presumed rules' and not 'unwritten rules', yeah?"

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"More or less," Stephanie agrees.

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"What makes something a presumed rule rather than an unwritten rule? I don't mean the definition of set membership, I mean, what mechanism separates them?"

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Stephanie shrugs. Pointlessly, since Shiro can't see her. "We aren't sure. The rules of games are a social construct – that is, they're willed into existence when we play, to the extent they exist at all. When I say 'the rules of Rock Paper Scissors' your mind immediately forms all the same connotations that are in my mind, and we can play together without re-litigating whether paper really beats stone."

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"But what if it doesn't? If we start playing under the illusion of transparency and genuinely disagree, something has to be the final arbiter of who's right."

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"The literal answer to your question is Tet. The answer you're looking for, I don't know. Gods are… extensions of mortal areas of concern." Among other things. "Tet is our desire to play games made manifest; the rules of those games aren't coming from him. Games can evolve over time, but if you and I agreed to play 'chess' and I claimed you were cheating by moving the pawn forward two squares because it was against the rules a thousand years ago, that wouldn't cut it. We all collectively decided to change the rules, so they changed. In that sense I can predict Tet would disagree with me too, but not because he's imposing his personal opinions on our game."

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"Can we not have codified reference rulebooks? 'I want to play chess in accordance with The Shiro Rules, second edition—' ouch! Stop that!"

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Stephanie eases off on the pressure. "Sorry. Err, you could, but nobody would want to play with you. Codified rules have their place in formal settings, like the Succession Tournament, but if you enumerate every possible way that a game could be played people will suspect you of trying to sneak in an exemption for whichever way you're planning to cheat. It's empirically safer to rely on the common understanding of the rules."

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"'Empirically'? This has been tested?"

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"Well, if you say the game is not 'chess' but 'chess according to this manual that exhaustively covers all the edge cases' then how is your opponent supposed to know whether that manual you've got conforms to the common understanding of the rules? It could just as easily say that black wins in case of a draw, or that on move thirteen white is allowed to promote their b pawn to a queen where it stands, or that the first person to cross their fingers and recite the alphabet backwards wins regardless of what's happening on the board. You know what they'll say? 'I want to play chess. C-H-E-S-S. 32 pieces, 64 squares, you lose when you're checkmated.'"

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"They won't… read… the manual?"

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"Nobody has enough time or patience to go through ninety pages of rules with a fine-tooth comb every time they want to play a game. Sometimes you have to make concessions, write out the unwritten rules to stop mind readers from reading minds, but even the Succession Tournament keeps the rules short so more people can play. Hold still."

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"That—"

Shiro is unceremoniously yanked six inches to the side as Stephanie repositions her, falling into the bath in the process. She sits up, hissing and spitting, and loses her train of thought.

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Oh, finally out of questions? That's a shame, because you're not clean yet.

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His clothes have vanished.

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That's okay! Here are your new clothes.

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Sora is a jeans and T-shirt kind of guy. He doesn't own anything more formal than a rain jacket. The deep red dress coat, vest and trousers laid out for him are a bit much, by his standards. Whoever picked it out was kind enough to match the color with his crimson sneakers, which are conveniently tucked underneath. He gets dressed, feeling silly and overwrought.

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Sora is also overdressed by the standards of most Elkians, but that's not what Stephanie was aiming for. His mother would say that he looks very handsome.

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Sora goes hunting for his sister and Stephanie. This floor of the castle is dominated by the baths and doesn't have many other rooms; he should be able to find them in short order.

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Yeah, if he's prepared to walk into what is presumably a women's locker room while they're using it.

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It does not even occur to Sora that he might not want to do this.

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Shiro is situated in front of a full-length mirror, arms held out at her sides while a young woman laces up the back of a comically elaborate ball gown studded with sapphires. The ultramarine fabric of the dress and the white trim complement his own outfit nicely. She looks extraordinarily unimpressed with this state of affairs.

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The young woman gives the laces a final jerk, earning a cough and a twitch from Shiro, and moves on to fixing Shiro's hair. The rat's nest begins to disappear surprisingly quickly as she brushes it out in segments.

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"Look at me. I'm a pretty princess."

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What an impressive amount of disdain. You'd think she'd be over the moon, under the circumstances.

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As it would with all young girls, the opportunity to wear a sparkly dress in a magical fantasy castle has reached into the back of Shiro's mind and activated some primal associations that are universal among that demographic. Unfortunately, Shiro's strongest association here is the day her mother took away her doll and told her to grow up.

At the age of five. Yes, there was only one doll.

This is still 'fun', from a certain point of view, but Shiro is primarily salty.

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"That used to be my gown," says Stephanie, who is a foot and a half taller than Shiro. She's already dressed, this time in a significantly less formal evening dress, and looks obscenely pleased with herself.

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"Is there a reason you've decided to disguise us as members of the gentry? I thought we wanted to avoid standing out."

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"And you won't. Elkia has been shrinking for a very long time. All those displaced people had to go somewhere, and most of them came here. A lot of tournament participants will be the sort with hereditary wealth from back when their great-great-grandfather was a lord in some province we no longer control. You two will fit right in."

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"Please hold still, miss!" the maid begs Shiro.

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"Stop trying to scalp me!" Shiro cries, ineffectually batting at the hairbrush.

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This reasoning is sound, and yet Sora cannot help but feel as though Stephanie is playing him.

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Stephanie does enjoy fashion assignments, yes. She will deny that this is anything but professional, but she put more than a casual effort into selecting their outfits and it absolutely paid off. They're so cute together!

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The kid's hair turns out to be straight under all that tangle. She pulls it back and braids it before Shiro can say anything, ties it off, and makes her exit. Normally her work is somewhat gratifying, but Princess Stephanie has never hosted anyone quite this hostile before.

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"Dinner?" Stephanie offers.

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"My skin burns," Shiro announces flatly. "It stings in places I didn't know I had. Let's eat."

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Sora doesn't disagree. He'd figured his first Isekai Protagonist Invention would either be the wet sulfuric acid process or the movable type printing press, depending on Elkia's current branch of the tech tree, but it might end up being a less caustic recipe for soap. His skin isn't happy with the results either.

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Dinner is typically eaten in the great hall, which is part of the first floor and currently filled with poker tables. People are instead eating on the second floor, their plates and chairs spread out across a labyrinth of parlors, boudoirs, galleries, antechambers, smoking rooms, staircases, studies, solaria, and in one case an art studio filled with metalworking tools. The kitchens have loaded up a single long table with a buffet and left the residents to their own devices.

Stephanie was true to her word: most of the other diners are dressed nicely. Given the range of unfamiliar fashion it's hard to quantify exactly how formal they are, but Sora and Shiro do not stand out.

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Sora serves himself a cooked bird wing of some description, a pile of what might be rice, a salad made with leafy greens and sliced purple fruit drizzled with honey, and a mug filled with a strong-smelling hot beverage poured from a glass dispenser.

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Shiro does not make food decisions. She has the same thing but with water instead.

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Stephanie does not expect to be bothered while she eats. Everyone here ought to be in a bigger rush than usual while preparing for tomorrow, so she doesn't go out of her way to pick a table where she'll be entertaining other guests. It'll be enough just to have Sora and Shiro following her around for what other people will assume is no good reason. She sits at a table in the west parlor to get a view of the setting sun and doesn't think much of it.

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"Princess! Just the woman I was looking for!"

A woman with pointed furry ears, clawlike fingernails, and a proportionately long tail slides over the back of a nearby couch and lays her own tray of food on the table next to Stephanie's.

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"Mmmm."

She's a cat. Don't give her attention and she'll get bored and leave.

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"I've heard you played heads-up stud against Chloe Zell earlier today. Tell me the story!"

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Stephanie does not feel like dealing with this woman right now. Today has been stressful enough without her.

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Oh wow, a real-life catgirl! What to say, what to say…

"Hi, my name is Sora. Nice to meet you!"

Hmm, a little bland.

"Your fur is so soft! Can I pet you?"

No, too forward.

"Is heterochromia common for nekomusume? Do any of your family members have it? What about extra fingers or toes?"

Maybe a slightly less obnoxious genetics question?

"Do furries have the same reproductive strategy as sirens?"

That one is definitely too forward.

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In the end he decides to go with a classic.

"Hello there!"

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"Hello to you too, human!"

Juno would normally say something cutting after being interrupted like that, but Sora's gigawatt smile is disarming.

"Where did you find this one, Steph?"

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"We ran into Stephanie just when she was finishing her poker match! It was a real nail-biter, had me on the edge of my seat the whole time. Chloe Zell is something else."

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"Isn't she just? My name is Juno."

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"Sora. First time visiting – Shiro and I came to the city for the tournament tomorrow."

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Shiro waves at the werebeast, but her attention remains firmly on her plate.

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"There are lots of competitors in your shoes," Juno muses. "How do you like your odds?"

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"It'll be tough," Sora agrees. He takes a sip of the drink, which does not have an analogous taste to anything on Earth but is nonetheless delicious. "It'll be good for Elkia, though, won't it? Whoever wins is the strongest gambler and has the best shot at defending Elkian territory. Err, no offense."

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Flattery will get you everywhere, Sora.

"Best gambler among humans," she says, chuckling. "A slow walker can outrun a legion of cripples. Chloe Zell won't do much better than the late king. No offense."

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"Hey! Humans may not be as magical as you, but we're just as good at strategy games. The next king will be a pretty good card player, so anyone who challenges them won't benefit from being stronger or faster."

He's still smiling, though.

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Oh, is that what you think?

"Mm, if you say so. I'll have to see it to believe it."

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"Is that a challenge?"

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"Is that a challenge?"

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Stephanie takes a deep breath and sternly reminds herself that it is inappropriate to scream at foreign diplomats while eating dinner no matter how much they deserve it.

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"I can't take that lying down. Humans, bad at strategy? Preposterous. The more strategy the better, I say."

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"Sounds like you have something in mind."

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"I propose a game of pure strategy," Sora declares. He picks up the nearest pack of cards (there is, of course, a pack of cards within arm's reach at this parlor table) and begins sorting the cards into piles by suit.

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"A game of pure strategy… do you mean contract bridge?"

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"No, that's the name: game of pure strategy," Sora clarifies. "Here's how we'll play: each of us gets all thirteen cards of one suit, a third suit serves as the prize pool, and we don't need the fourth. On each turn, we flip over the top card of the middle pile to serve as the prize, and then we each choose one card from our hand as a sealed bid. Higher card wins the prize. Aces are low, kings are high, and if we both make the same bid for the prize we add it to the next turn's prize and bid on an extra card. Or two extra cards if it happens twice, and so on. At the end, whoever has the highest combined prize pool wins – the ace is one, jack queen king are eleven twelve and thirteen."

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"Elegant! I like it," Juno says approvingly. "Sure, I'll play."

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Shiro almost feels bad for her.

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"Low stakes?" Sora asks. He's not going to ask her for an unspecified favor or anything of that magnitude – unlike Stephanie, Juno does not have GULLIBLE printed on her forehead in block letters.

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"Sure thing! Let's see…"

Juno raises a finger to her chin, eyes half-lidded. She glances over at her uneaten fish fillet.

"I know! You can feed dinner to me."

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Excuse me, kitten, which one of us is the princess?

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"Acceptable. In exchange, what I want… is to be allowed to pet you."

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"Like… like an animal?"

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"Yes."

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Does Juno believe those two things are of equal value? Sure, why not. Besides, her goal here is to win. Winning is fun! Being fed dinner by a human servant in front of Princess Steph is just a bonus.

"I accept! Let's all have fun and play together."

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Sora hands her all of the clubs, takes all of the diamonds for himself, and leaves the spades face-down in the center of the table. The hearts go back in the box.

"Do you want to shuffle?" he asks.

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Juno gives the prize pool a wash, three riffle shuffles, a strip shuffle, one more riffle shuffle, and allows Sora to shuffle it himself before performing a final cut and laying it down. The first card is the four of spades.

Let's do this.

Juno plays her five.

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And Sora plays the four.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃕 🂤 🃄
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Juno slides it over to her side and starts to discard her bid. She hesitates.

"We discard these, yes?"

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"Wouldn't be much of a game if we didn't."

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The next card is the seven of spades.

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Eight of clubs.

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Seven of diamonds.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃘 🂧 🃇
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The third card is the king of spades. Juno, who thus far has been simply bidding one higher than the rank of the prize, plays her own king. Either Sora bids his king too and they resolve the draw on the next round, or he doesn't and she wins the king. Either suits her fine – Sora has marginally better cards than her, but if he plays to win the draw using his other face cards he's more likely than not to waste them fighting for lower cards in the process. Her score lead is an advantage in this position.

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Ace of diamonds.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃞 🂮 🃁
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It's moderately concerning that he's gotten rid of his ace on turn three, but the score is now 24–love and Juno has the king.

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Sora flips over the next card, which happens to be the nine of spades. He considers his next play.

The Game of Pure Strategy is really a game of mixed strategy. Playing a pure strategy in the Game of Pure Strategy is a good way to lose. Consider the optimal play against an opponent using sealed bids selected at random: simply bid the same value as the prize each time, and your expected value is 59½ points to your opponent's 31½, for a win with a respectable margin of 28 points.

This strategy is utterly dominated by bidding exactly one rank higher than the value of the prize, and using the ace to bid on the king. This loses 13 points but wins the other 78 for an even more crushing victory. But consider also the pure strategy of bidding one higher than that, losing 25 points from the king and queen but winning the remaining 66. And so on…

There are two conclusions an alert player will immediately grasp:

  1. Winning the ten through king nets you 46 points, enough to win outright. Any other victory requires more than four cards.
  2. Unless your opponent is a moron, no pure strategy will allow you to do this.

Sora is therefore interested in playing like a moron. Not a complete moron, because Juno would see through an act like that, but up to this point he's played in a particular way. Making a calculated sacrifice in the form of the king, while shedding his weakest card in the process, is not prima facie a brilliant move.

The brilliant move is this one: Juno is going to make an overbid on the nine of spades, and he's going to let her get away with it.

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So far Sora has played two equal-value bids followed by ditching his ace rather than fighting for the king. He still has the king of diamonds, giving him a suite of face cards that outranks hers, and he must be thinking of where to use it. Probably not on the nine. His king will be most valuable when the queen of spades arrives. She suspects he overbids in this spot, though. Juno plays the queen of clubs, hoping to nail Sora's jack or ten.

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Two.

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This is not ideal.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃝 🂩 🃂

"You're going to lose at this rate," Juno remarks, sweeping the nine into her pile.

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"Rates are subject to change," Sora replies, quoting the words and the cadence from a commercial for an insurance company.

The next card he turns over is the jack of spades.

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She has the king and the nine already. Any two of the queen, jack or ten… won't quite clinch this for her, but if she can get there she'll be comfortably positioned for the win. She can't overbid on this card, but she still has a jack. If Sora overbids, so be it – he has to start playing his face cards eventually. She bids jack.

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Sora is not going to overbid – in fact, he's going to bid jack too. He sweeps their bids to the side and reaches for the deck.

"In this round, we play for both the jack and the queen," he says, placing the queen of spades next to the jack.

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The actual worst card. Juno flicks an ear irritably. She can't overbid, and she loses the jack and the queen in the process! Oh well, she can get rid of her ace here without too much risk of an underbid.

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He could not look more chuffed if he tried. He plays the queen, just in case Juno uses her ten to call his bluff. That would be an awkward way to lose.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃑 🂭 🂫 🃍

Then it's the three of spades in the prize pool. Sora bids five, his second-lowest remaining card. It's not much stronger than the two at this point, and it beats Juno if she bids three herself.

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She doesn't need a three, and she suspects Sora is reasoning the same way. She bids three as well, just in case Sora decides to get rid of his own three.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃓 🂣 🃅
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Ace of spades. In most games this is a strong card to have in your hand – most games, but not here. He bids three, his lowest remaining option.

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Juno is thinking along similar lines. She bids her lowest remaining card as well.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃒 🂡 🃃
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Next up: the six of spades.

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What to bid? Juno has 33 points to his 27, so neither of them have the luxury of letting anything but the two of spades go without a fight. He has a small advantage in terms of high cards, so he can afford to overbid without it being obvious to Juno that she can afford to discard her four or her six. Ten of diamonds.

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She anticipated that: goodbye, four of clubs.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃔 🂦 🃊

Sora now has the queen, jack, six, three, and ace, tying it up at 33 to 33. She still has the ten, nine, six and seven of clubs in hand.

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And Sora still has his king. He doesn't need to think about when to use it for long, because the next prize on the docket is the ten of spades. He can afford to whiff against Juno's low cards as long as he secures the ten, but if Juno plays her nine in hopes of a draw with his nine then so much the better.

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Nice try, Sora, but it's not that hard to guess when you're planning to overbid. Your king sure outranks this six.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃖 🂪 🃎

The three remaining prizes are the eight, five and two of spades. Sora has 43 points and wins if he takes the eight or the five. Juno, with 33 points, needs both the eight and the five. Sora has his nine, eight and six of diamonds remaining, while Juno strictly outranks him with the ten, nine and seven of clubs.

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Next up: the eight of spades.

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Juno has three options, as does her opponent. She wants to bid the card that's exactly one rank higher than Sora's, thereby securing victory if Sora bids nine or eight. Drawing her nine against his is also acceptable, since if the next street is the five she can automatically bid ten and win the game. The question is, what will Sora do?

She briefly considers using magic to try and guess Sora's strategy, but decides against it. His outward demeanor has been nothing but convivial since he sat down – not necessarily a hindrance if she had started earlier, but reading his microexpressions now without a baseline to compare against won't help her determine his strategy with any fidelity. They vary too much between individuals. Plus, this is a friendly game, and using magic goes against the 'pure strategy' ethos. It'll make winning less fun.

If she predictably bids ten in this position, Sora might well discard his lowest card again, giving him a clear shot at picking up the five. The safe strategy is bidding nine, which either wins the eight outright or draws and sends it to the next round. Then, if the next round is the five, she bids ten and wins. Sora knows that, but he can't do anything about it, so she may as well. Nine of clubs.

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Juno is of course going to bid the nine. Bidding seven risks an immediate loss and bidding ten is a waste of a high card, which she has no reason to risk on this street. He can't let this one go, or else she'll have the highest card left to win the five with. He bids nine.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃙 🂨 🃉

"Draw," he says, picking up the remaining two cards. He flicks the penultimate spade dramatically onto the table between them, next to the eight. "The second prize is the two."

He places his remaining diamonds flat on the table, one under each hand.

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What does Sora do here? This is the last decision that matters. Juno considers the game as a whole, trying to get a feel for how this man thinks about strategy.

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Both players flip over their bids.

JUNO PRIZE SORA
🃗 🂨 🂢 🃈
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Yeah, yeah, nice read. Shiro goes back to eating her salad now that the game's over.

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Juno growls, deeper and more primordial than any human woman could. She lays her last card on the table, where it will impotently beat out Sora's bid for the five of spades. The final score is 53 – 38 for Sora. Disgusting.

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"Good game! Wow, that was hard."

He has another bite of his unidentified bird wing. It tastes like chicken.

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Losing a single card game is just life. If the order of the last two cards had been reversed, that game would be hers. Losing multiple card games in sequence is disgraceful – but Juno has enough class to avoid demanding a best two out of three. For one thing, she's not confident she'll win the next one either. She's not a card shark by trade. For another, there's an outside chance that this guy will defeat Chloe Zell and become the next king of Elkia. If she ever finds herself facing off against Sora with human territory on the line, he'll have no way to foresee what comes next. When the chips are down, she'll be challenging them to a game with considerably less luck involved.

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Stephanie stares at the cards, dinner half-eaten.

"How did you know?" she asks tentatively.

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"Luck," Juno says dismissively, starting in on her own dinner. "Come, human. Claim your prize."

As wagers go, this is hardly a loss at all.

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"There was less luck involved than you think," Sora says. He moves over and starts running his hands through the catgirl's fur. "We both knew that drawing on the nine was the safer option for you, but I knew that you knew that I was inclined to discard my low cards. I did it with the ace and the two at the beginning. If you bid ten on the two and I discarded the six, I'd be guaranteed the five and win – at least, that was the most salient possibility to you, based on the way I played."

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Stephanie doesn't fail to notice that Sora's brief explanation did not contain the words 'expected value' or 'Nash equilibrium'. Evidently he's taking his information secrecy policy seriously. She'll ask later.

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"Hmmph. Maybe you have a fighting chance after all. Ah, a little higher please."

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Sora scratches her a little higher, directly behind her ears.

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Juno emits a sonorous contralto purr and leans back. Yesssssssssss.

(This is not the most fun she could be having right now, but she has a guess as to why this man is staying as Princess Steph's personal guest and if she's right this will drive her up the wall. It would've been better if they tied and she could get him to feed her dinner at the same time, but this will suffice.)

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Stephanie has feelings about this, all right. Possibly not the right ones. What does Orig—

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JEALOUSY IS THE WRONG EMOTION. PICK A DIFFERENT ONE.

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Annoyance, then. She sniffs haughtily and goes back to her dinner.

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Touching Juno's skull while she makes this noise is fun, but it feels like resting his weight against the engine block of a sports car while it revs in low gear. He eventually, reluctantly, stops petting the catgirl and resumes eating dinner.

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The food is tasty even by the standards of people who know how to cook and don't compensate by eating meal squares supplemented with multivitamins. Shiro polishes her meal off in short order. Sora's drink smells good, but she's too full to bother going back for one of her own. That's it for dinner.

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"Grub's good as always. See you tomorrow, Sora!" Juno slinks off.

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"Be seeing you."

He waits until Juno is out of sight and another minute after that before he turns to Stephanie. "Who is she?"

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Stephanie rolls her eyes. "Juno Mandagot. She's been the ambassador from the Eastern Union for around a decade, which mostly entails advising the crown on diplomatic matters and representing the interests of werebeasts in Elkia."

And she's a grade-A pain in the rear end, but that's neither here nor there.

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"Must be awkward to eat dinner with her around."

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Oh, you think?

"There's no proof that she was involved in anything," Stephanie says tightly. "There is, however, a great deal of evidence. I've been trying to get her dismissed for years."

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"Something for us to think about after we win."

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"Ah, speaking of winning: how did you do that, Sora?"

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"Luck."

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Sora winces.

"There was an element of luck," he admits. "If you don't play enough games to form a smooth distribution of scores then you can't assess either player's skill in anything but the broadest strokes. I wagered one nothing against another nothing, it was worth the risk."

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"But you knew she was going to play her seven!"

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"'Knew' is a strong word – I had an educated guess. Making hot reads is more of an art than a science."

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"But the—"

Stephanie is not allowed to finish that sentence. There are other people within earshot. She gesticulates wildly instead.

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"I did figure that she would bid nine for the eight of spades specifically because she had a fifty percent chance at a guaranteed win, safer odds than she'd get if she bid ten or seven, but my underbid for the two and the nine at once… I took a calculated gamble."

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"Sure is convenient that the two came before the five," Shiro says innocently.

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He scowls. "The game involves luck! People like card games because there's an element of chance! Fish can jam under the gun with nothing but air and flop a full house, that's part of the appeal! If I wanted to play a card game where skill is all that matters I would've asked her to play an Ace-Ten game. The Game of Pure Strategy takes thirty seconds to explain and doesn't have a complicated scoring system, everyone loves it."

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"All I'm saying is—"

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"I saw an opportunity to pet a catgirl and I took it. You'll understand when you're older."

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"Oh, is that what you were up to with the fairy? I wouldn't have guessed. Truly your ways are a riddle for the ages."

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Stephanie doesn't even know where to begin with that one.

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The reward was worth the peril. Her fur was so soft.

Time for a change in subject.

"We've been washed, clothed, entertained and fed. All we need now is some last-minute practice and to get a full night's sleep. Let's go."

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They depart. Stephanie asks her question once the trio is alone in a stairwell, with no chance of being overheard.

"Did you use the Nash equilibrium strategy? How did you find the expected value for each move?"

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"I did not. Your homework for tonight is to determine why."

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Stephanie nods. She had hoped to spend a few hours meditating and sorting out her identity in the evening, but reviewing her understanding of game theory while the lesson is fresh in her mind is as good a use of her time.

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What a lazy teacher he is. Shiro approves.

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"Behind that door is Juno's suite," Stephanie mentions when they reach their destination, pointing to one of the other rooms down the hall. "That one is Maria Roth, from Elven Gard; that one is Bragi Vettlingatök, from Vvardenfell. All three of them will be in the audience tomorrow, so you'll get the chance to meet them sooner rather than later. The other two suites are empty – one is reserved for visitors from Avant Heim, the other for visitors traveling overseas."

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"Do you use either of them often?"

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The castle in which they now stand was built during the hegemonic age of humanity in Andalusia, when Elkia dominated commerce and culture far beyond its expansive borders. Visitors from other continents were frequent in Elkia City: merchants, diplomats, evangelists, and players of games alike. Even the Elder Gods in the west paid respect to the monarchs of her line, if not tribute.

Those years are long passed. Modern international intrigues take place in Elven Gard, the nation of a hundred capitals. Elkia hasn't been relevant on a grand scale for centuries, beginning well before its decline accelerated under her grandfather's rule. Only the shreds of their former glory remain – the legion of human works built to stand the test of time now rest in Elven Gard, where only a scant few elves have ever seen them. Their land lost to the Eastern Union has no doubt already been thoroughly colonized by werebeasts. The merchants, diplomats, evangelists, and players of games all have better things to do with their time. Bleh.

"Sometimes. Will you be needing me this evening, or…?"

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"Not for the hold 'em practice, but you can stay if you want," Sora offers.

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Stephanie finds herself wanting to spend more time with them for the sake of it, but she's committed to giving that desire no weight in this decision. If she stays, she'll catch a glimpse of how the Summoned Heroes develop their poker strategy. If she leaves and finishes her homework early, she'll have some time to herself before bed.

"I'll see you tomorrow," she says, and leaves them there.

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"Can we count on her?" Shiro asks, once they're alone in their chamber.

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"For the important parts," Sora says confidently. "Everything else is just cherries on top."

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"I'm not going to hold my breath. Oh, and speaking of holding my breath, help me get this off. I think the tailor who made this gown underestimated how much oxygen the human brain needs."

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Sora will assist with removing Stephanie's ball gown. Shiro's torso expands noticeably when he unlaces the back.

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Ah, much better. She pulls her arms out of the sleeves and starts shucking the rest off as fast as possible.

"So, assuming this tournament is mostly rookies by Earth standards, let's start with our six-max ranges. I want to know what you were thinking when you raised six-five suited under the gun that one time."

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"That the table was full of nits and I could fold on a board with face cards?"

All of Sora's opponents folded that hand, in reality, but your chain of reasoning cannot count on being lucky. Poor play combined with bad luck can destroy your chances of victory, whereas if you play well enough bad luck can only slow you down.

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"You gave them money."

She is speaking in terms of expected value, of course.

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"My raise was huge and our range in that game was polarized, they were only going to call with jacks or higher."

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"I'm going to need you to walk me through this one, big brother."

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"Gladly…"

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Stephanie is looking forward to—

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There are still preparations to be made – cellars to inspect, furniture to arrange, luncheons to plan, seating arrangements to come up with for important guests once they bust out, speeches to rehearse – and Stephanie was supposed to complete her final reviews that afternoon. Instead, her scheduled pre-tournament stud match with Chloe Zell seems to have mysteriously taken up nearly her entire day. She'd better get on with all that.

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Fine.

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The bare minimum amount of work will take until late in the evening.

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Late in the evening, Stephanie changes into her nightclothes, lights some of the candles in her bedroom, and sits down in her rocking chair with a quill and some parchment. She doesn't have enough energy for her original plan, but she's going to muscle through the game theory homework before bed so she can put it behind her.

Shiro's explanation for how to find Nash equilibrium strategies with a matrix didn't have enough functional details for her to pick it up. She'll ask for clarification later. In the meantime, she's going to use Sora's technique. She doesn't have a way to find the expected value of strategies in the real game yet, so she'll also reuse the Idiot Poker method and solve a simpler problem first.

The Game of Pure Strategy played with only the ace and the two has exactly two strategies: bid the same rank or use the other card. No way to mix it up – which ironically makes it a true game of pure strategy, unlike its fully-realized version. The Nash equilibrium strategy is therefore remarkably boring: both players bid their ace for the ace and their two for the two, resulting in a draw no matter the order. Using the other strategy will result in a loss unless your opponent foolishly does the same thing. Impossible to improve upon.

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How about the ace, two and three… make it the two, three and four instead, to avoid the possibility of a draw. Stephanie is going to use 'probability of victory' rather than 'number of chips won' as her metric for finding expected value, and she's not sure how to fit tied games into that scheme so she's kicking them into the long grass. The Game of Pure Strategy also has a fixed number of rounds in addition to a binary win condition, so maybe the Idiot Poker method isn't applicable after all? She'll give it a shot.

There are six orders the prize cards can land in. Because any two of the three cards will win, the game is mostly the same as Rock Paper Scissors: four beats three, three beats two, two loses to four but gives a three-in-four chance of winning the subsequent two cards. It's not completely identical – if the bids for the third card are equal then the game is unfortunately still a draw – but it's close enough that the true mixed strategy equilibrium is probably close to 'play each card with equal probability', biased a little towards bidding the same rank as the prize.

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Stephanie is in the process of writing this out when she realizes the answer to Sora's question.

See, even though she does not have a working "get your opponent's expected value" function to use in her solution, she can guess that it'll be a slightly uneven distribution over all of your remaining cards. If the first card to land on the board is the king, you need to have at least some probability of bidding any of your cards to keep your opponent from exploiting you. Sora bid his ace for the king, presumably because he knew Juno was liable to bid king for it and wanted to get some value out of the deal. So the first round strategy has thirteen probabilities.

But that's just the first round for one possible card – those thirteen probabilities change depending on which prize card is first. Worse, the number of permutations in the game is the factorial of the number of prizes: two for two cards, six for three, 24 for four, and 120 for five. Stephanie calculates the factorial of thirteen and gets a number greater than six billion. Six billion probabilities, multiplied by which cards you've already bid and which cards your opponent has already bid…

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Mystery solved: Sora didn't use the Nash equilibrium strategy because he hasn't spent millennia memorizing numbers. Stephanie lights the parchment with a nearby candle and tosses it into the empty fireplace to keep anyone from fishing it out of her wastebasket. The whole idea of a Nash equilibrium doesn't feel quite as formidable as it did a few short hours ago, but it does still seem like the ideal basis for creating mixed strategies: narrow down your possibility space to only the good options, then select a mixture of those good options to stop your opponent from knowing your plan with certainty.

Alternatively, maybe Shiro's「linear programming」trick is faster than Sora's guess-and-check method for very large spaces, which might mean that poker has a set of approximately-stable-equilibria that are small enough to find and memorize but strong enough to win a tournament against a lineup of opponents who've never heard of game theory before.

Drat. She should've stayed with them and learned more. She goes to bed, feeling unsure and alone.

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What a busy day it is. Fayette can't remember the last time the castle was prepared to host so many people – not during her tenure, that's for sure – but it's exhausting. Her work is normally completed before sunrise.

Her final task of the morning is to assist the young miss presently staying in the Rapture suite. Princess Stephanie had their new outfits brought to the wardrobe overnight by the laundry service, and Fayette is positive that one of them is another highly impractical dress made from rare silks and expensive filigree that takes a second person's help to don. She's not going to let pass an opportunity to reuse her old court apparel.

She knocks on the door.

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No answer.

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She knocks again, more stridently.

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Silence.

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There's no time for dallying. Ignoring etiquette, she pushes the door open and goes inside.

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The young woman is alone, asleep under a mound of blankets. Her older brother is gone. The curtains are pulled shut, casting everything in gloom. The ball gown is draped over the back of a chair – carefully, in a way that will only cause the slightest twinge of chest pain for whoever has to clean it up later.

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It is probably against protocol to call royal guests sluggards. Emphatic cheerfulness it shall be.

"Good morning!" she announces at full volume, making her way for the curtains.

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Shiro sits up, wiping a strand of drool from the corner of her mouth.

"Morning," she says languidly, and flinches when the chambermaid throws open the curtains and lets the daylight in.

Disboard's sun is slightly bluer and more intense than Earth's, probably an F-type main-sequence star if the mechanics of converting hydrogen into helium are the same. Shiro is trying to hold off on speculating whether the existence of magic and elves implies radically different astrophysics until she reads at least one (1) book on the subject. Regardless, it's spectacularly uncomfortable until your eyes adjust.

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Perhaps she didn't get enough sleep, then. She'll refrain from thinking of the young miss as a lazy good-for-nothing for the time being.

The sole outfit in the wardrobe is a cerulean dress with horizontal stripes of black lace. Stephanie has helpfully included a pair of closed-back slippers and a spiral hairpin with a cabochon ornament on the end, which will hopefully keep Shiro from wandering about the castle barefoot with her hair flying in the breeze.

"Let's not waste any more— my goodness."

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Shiro is out of bed and already eating the last of her stashed cereal bars. If she overslept she's going straight to the casino, no detour to the kitchens.

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Lazy and unmannerly. Well, at least she isn't getting crumbs on the ball gown. Fayette waits for Shiro to finish eating before dressing her, a job which she quickly learns requires two people because of who Shiro is as a person rather than the complexity of the garment in question.

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Ooh, she's having her hair done up! Shiro does this approximately never, although she's not averse to it. Once it's styled, the maid threads an unusual metal implement in the shape of a double helix into her bun to hold it in place.

"Do you not have… hairpins made of elastic metal that hold themselves closed?" she asks, fumbling for the right words.

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"That sounds clever. Can't say I've seen one."

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They're going to have to delegate a lot of things if they want to get any of them done, but one of the things Shiro will be delegating is the invention of the bobby pin.

"Thank you," she says, once she's presentable. "Let's go steal some blinds."

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The tournament is well underway. The sounds of it drift up from the great hall, where hundreds of humans are playing hold 'em and many more are spectating.

Tables are limited to six players at a time, although half of the tables only have five players as people get up to switch seats, visit the garderobe, or simply take a break from losing chips. Men and women in four-colored livery wander the aisles between the tables with plates of hors d'oeuvres and drinks, offering them to players.

At one end of the great hall is a dais with two unoccupied thrones, and upon one of those thrones rests a golden crown. The specter of the former king looms over the great hall, reminding everyone of the stakes involved.

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Emerging from the staircase, the first thing Shiro notices is that the floor doesn't have any dealers. The players in the dealer position are personally shuffling and dealing the cards, rotating clockwise with each hand.

There is a reason that professional tournaments use dealer buttons and have employees handle the cards! Shiro doesn't know whether this is customary for Disboardian poker tournaments or simply a quirk of this one, but either way it's disappointing.

The second thing Shiro notices is Sora.

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Sora is not playing poker. He's standing on the raised landing where the castellan accepted their signature, surrounded by a gaggle of people who are laughing uproariously at something he's just said. He's wearing white and gold today, a red boutonnière pinned to his breast, and overall he looks remarkably dashing for someone who is still technically a NEET.

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Juno is there too, one hand laid casually on Sora's forearm and the other holding a glass. Stephanie is presumably already at work. None of the others looks familiar.

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"There you are!" Sora calls out once he's spotted his sister.

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Yep, here she is. She waves with the hand that isn't holding her chip stack.

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"My sister is playing," he says excitedly, directing his comment at one of the people surrounding him. "Just arrived yesterday for the event, met the princess on the way in! There's plenty to see in this city, but that'll have to wait for later, eh?"

He gestures at the crowd, and the people around him nod.

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"Good luck, kid!" Juno shouts.

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That's enough information. Shiro picks one of the tables that Sora thinks is soft and approaches it.

Poker is a game of variance. As Sora so astutely mentioned the day before, it's eminently possible to win hands where the odds are against you, and that makes it challenging to achieve a win rate consistent with your skill level. The way to resolve this is to beat down unskilled opponents early in the tournament, take their chips, and use the cushion of resources to survive luck going against you now and then. Las Vegas would've arranged for all the strong players to start at different tables, but Shiro will have to make do with Sora's assessment.

Not that she's worried.

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There's action at the table. The man in the cutoff makes an enormous 3-bet and everyone else folds. He rakes in the blinds and the initial bet from the hijack, then flips over the two and three of spades to the dismay of everyone else.

All right.

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The deal passes. The new dealer has twice as many green chips as anyone else at the table but roughly the same amount of the other ones. The green chips are worth 25, the kind you'd use to pay the blinds. He's opening with a wider range and getting folds.

All right.

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The first player to act picks his cards up, incidentally flashing them to anyone who cares to look. He has the queen and ten of diamonds. He waffles for moment, then folds.

All right.

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The hand folds around to the dealer, who raises by 250 and gets no callers.

Shiro sits down in the empty seat to the left of the big blind, just in time to start. She racks up her chips on the side of the table and tosses two green ones into the pot.

"Deal me in."

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How old is this girl, seven? Sure, whatever. There's no rule that says a kid can't play poker. The table is now full – place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.

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The first thing to consider, even before you look at your cards, is positioning. As Stephanie learned yesterday afternoon, acting later in the round is more advantageous than acting earlier. The later you can bet in the round, the more information you have about your opponents. As the big blind, Shiro goes last and will therefore have an idea of what everyone else is thinking before she bets.

So it's unfortunate that the player directly to her left, who is the first to play once again by virtue of someone else joining the table, looks at his cards and immediately open raises to 400. The player with the tall stack of green chips calls, and Shiro (nine-five offsuit) makes an easy fold.

The flop comes ace-king-seven, the first player makes an even bigger raise to 1450, and the other man folds.

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Later positions can profitably bet with a wider variety of hands. Early players are wise to only play with strong cards that are statistically likely to win against any caller, while late players can see when the early players are weak and get into the action with cards that need more luck to succeed but are progressively less likely to get called.

Introduction to poker positions
Acting Order Colloquial Name (Abbreviation) Open Range
1 Under The Gun (UTG) Extremely strong cards only
2 Hijack (HJ) Stick to strong cards
3 Cutoff (CO) Mostly strong cards, some medium cards
4 Dealer (BTN) More medium cards
5 Small Blind (SB) A mix of strong, medium, and sometimes weak cards
6 Big Blind (BB) Go nuts

(As Shiro noted, the position of dealer is frequently indicated with a physical token called a dealer button, so as to disambiguate from the casino employee dealing the cards, hence the abbreviation 'BTN'.)

The small blind is still a relatively late position, so when Shiro wakes up with the queen and jack of clubs on her second hand she has more than enough ammunition to start winning chips.

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The cutoff raises by 75, bringing the pot to 150. The dealer folds.

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Shiro calls, bringing it to 200.

If the first lesson is position, the second lesson is range. Like the ratio of kings to jacks in Stephanie's game, skilled players use a mix of hands in different situations to avoid being completely transparent to their opponents. Only betting strong cards and always folding weak cards is a good way to telegraph your thought process to anyone paying attention.

Shiro does not think this guy is paying attention. Furthermore, the opposite of a bad strategy is not automatically a good strategy. From the shape of his chip stack, he hasn't figured out how to fold bad cards before the flop yet. That's all right – she's happy to teach him.

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The big blind folds. The flop is the seven of diamonds, two of clubs, and nine of clubs.

Shiro 🃝 🃛
Community 🃇 🃒 🃙
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Check.

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Now we're talking. A board full of weak cards is at its most dangerous when your opponent plays a wide range. There are plenty of hands he could have that just improved dramatically – fishing for two pair or sets with low cards can be viable in some games – but checking on this board strongly suggests that he has nothing.

Shiro is four to a flush with no overcards, and the purely mathematical odds of her making the hand on the turn or river are 35%. If she makes it, she has the nuts – if this guy had an ace of clubs hand, he would've continued betting on the flop – so if it goes to showdown and he has a pair or better then those are her odds of winning.

Purely Mathematical Odds of Improving After The Flop
Hand Improvement Outs Turn Odds River Odds
Flush Draw + Outside Straight Flush/Straight/Pair 21 72.32% 47.73%
Flush Draw + Outside Straight Flush/Straight 15 54.10% 32.60%
Inside Straight Straight/Pair 10 38.40% 21.70%
Four Flush Flush 9 35% 19.60%
Outside Straight Straight 8 31.50% 17.40%
Three of a Kind Full House 7 27.80% 15.20%
Any Non-pair Pair 6 24.10% 13%
Pair Two Pair/Three of a Kind 5 20.40% 10.90%
Two Pair Full House 4 16.50% 8.70%
Inside Straight Straight 4 16.50% 8.70%
Pair Two Pair 3 12.50% 6.50%
Pocket Pair Three of a Kind 2 8.40% 4.30%
Three of a Kind Four of a Kind 1 4.30% 2.20%

'Outs' are the number of unseen cards left in the deck that could improve the hand.

These odds can be combined with the odds of all opponents folding to calculate hand equity. While the odds of getting a fold have to be made with incomplete information, the odds of improving your hand can be known with certainty.

However, poker is not a game of pure mathematics. Especially not against unsophisticated players. The optimal raise for maximizing profit against a rational opponent, considering this man's range and stack-to-pot ratio, are completely irrelevant. What she wants is a bet that will combine her odds of winning with his odds of folding for something that works out to positive expected value, and right now she's worried that a sufficiently large raise will scare him off.

She thinks for a bit, then raises 150. Not a huge raise, but still over half the pot. If he wants to stay in this hand, he needs to be sweating for it.

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He rechecks his hole cards, then calls.

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The pot is now 500, and the turn card is the ace of clubs.

Shiro 🃝 🃛
Community 🃇 🃒 🃙 🃑
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Check.

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Well, that makes life difficult. He now knows where the ace of clubs is, and if he doesn't have the king (very likely at this point) then he must be wondering where all of the face cards are. Problematically, they are in Shiro's hand. She's going to win this round, but it's going to be hard to get him to stay in if she keeps representing a strong holding.

She checks it back. Can't win 'em all.

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The river is the ace of spades.

Shiro 🃝 🃛
Community 🃇 🃒 🃙 🃑 🂡
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Check.

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Nothing for it. She needs to make a raise that he'll feel inclined to call. How about 400?

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"I fold."

He mucks his cards. One of them flutters and lands upside-down, showing the ten of diamonds.

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Could've been a straight draw played for value. Probably not, in Shiro's opinion. It's most likely that he raised preflop with nothing, got nowhere, and folded to a hand that could've been anything. If these people think she was bluffing and decide to fight against her with weaker hands later on, so much the better. She tosses her hole cards into the deck and starts shuffling without showing.

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And deals herself seven two offsuit.

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How auspicious.

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The party has not yet reached critical mass, but it's coming along. Sora is reluctantly enjoying himself. They're standing on a balcony overlooking the table where Chloe Zell is playing, with all six players regularly getting into genuinely entertaining multi-way pots. It's only midmorning, but three of the six are drinking a colorless carbonated beverage that Sora recently discovered is alcoholic.

(His first drink was discreetly discarded and replaced with water.)

This conversation is going nowhere, but it takes very little of his attention to participate. "Do they not try to settle their differences with words?"

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"Not always, not always," says a middle-aged woman dressed in Elkian finery. "My newphew got himself into a tizzy when we gave our daughter a Loamigel terrier for her birthday last year – gorgeous beast, we bought it for a song from an elf passing through – he rather wanted it for himself, so he challenged Clara over it. Can't remember what he wagered, must've been something she quite fancied having herself if she thought they were equal."

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"What did they play?"

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"Tiddlywinks! Ah, Clara was ahead for most of it, but he won after squopping her last wink. Then, if you can believe it, he gave the terrier back a month later! Claimed it wasn't housebroken. Personally, I think he'd been neglectful with it and wanted it off his hands."

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"Being housebroken is overrated," Juno drawls.

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"Your idea of a good time is different from a house pet's," Sora points out.

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"In scale and in scope, maybe."

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"Interesting choice," says the ambassador from Elven Gard, looking down over the railing. The last to act was Chloe Zell, who check-raised on a wet board, and the hijack has now spent a full minute deliberating a call.

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Getting check-raised is never a fun experience, and this early in the tournament is the best time to do it. Even if he's good at poker, the hijack hasn't seen enough of Zell's playstyle to put her on a range. Sora would be inclined to fold unless he had a set, and maybe even if he did. Getting away from a hand you're unlikely to win is an important poker skill – an important life skill too, if you live on Disboard.

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The hijack folds. The cutoff calls.

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"Bah," says another human, a man taking a break from playing in the tournament. "Weakest player I've seen all day. Don't know why he decided to sit down with Zell to begin with."

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"You would've continued?" Sora asks.

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"Why get into that situation if you aren't prepared for it?"

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If you're value betting with top pair or two pair, one of the blinds is playing like they've made their straight draw, you don't block any of their outs, and you don't have enough equity to call. Especially since the other player made the raise, which reduces your implied equity even more.

"Poker is hard," he says. "I think he'll do fine. Probably won't win the table, but he certainly won't bust out first."

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"Ha! Who else there is betting and folding every other hand?"

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"Eh… her."

Sora points to another woman at Zell's table, one of the people drinking. Her stack hasn't changed much since the beginning, but she's evidently not paying full attention.

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"Petra is a regular in the cardrooms around here," Maria says neutrally.

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"I think she'll leave first," Sora says confidently.

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"You don't say," says the other tournament player.

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"Care for a little side action?"

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He came here to gamble, and by Tet he's going to get what he came for.

"Ha! What are we wagering?"

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Sora nudges the unattended bag of chips on the ground next to him with his boot.

"Two thousand chips says Petra – is that her name? – two thousand chips says Petra is the first to leave the table."

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"Two thousand chips says it's him."

He points to the hijack.

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"Split if it's neither. Deal?"

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He grins. "Let's all have fun and play together."

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"Ooh, exciting. Hey, Maria! Two thousand gold says someone busts out of the tournament in the next twenty minutes."

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"No."

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The blinds go around twice. At this point she's identified the player directly to her left as being extraordinarily tight and the aggressor she won the 500-pot from as being fairly wide, with none of the other players getting enough action for her to make a solid judgement call. Shiro folds a lot of weak hands and wins the blinds once from the big blind with a raise none of them call.

In the next hand she deals, as if to make up for the first one, she gives herself pocket nines. The wide player raises by 75 under the gun, bringing the pot to 150, and the hijack and cutoff both fold. Shiro thinks about it for a moment, then re-raises by 300 to 450. Fairly standard.

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The tight player acting after her in the small blind re-raises by another 100 chips. The big blind folds, and the wide player calls.

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Generally speaking, when you raise preflop you want to have a strategy that determines the approximate size of the raise. The surface-level game theory says that every subsequent raise should be larger than the one preceding, usually by a multiple of three or four in cash games. The reason is simple: once the players acting before you have started throwing money into the pot, you can realize your equity without betraying the strength of your hand simply by calling. Re-raising polarizes your range, intentionally showing confidence in your hand to force weaker opponents to fold and stronger opponents to try their luck.

There are nuanced reasons to make small re-raises, especially in tournaments, but Shiro doesn't believe that's what's going on. More probable is that the tight player just doesn't know how to play. Whatever he's trying to do, what he's really done is given Shiro a great price to buy into the flop, and while his range is ahead of hers she happens to know for a fact that her cards are good. She calls as well.

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The flop comes with two threes and a seven. The first player checks.

Shiro 🃙 🂹
Community 🂳 🂣 🃇
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She'll check as well. Her cards are still good here, and when the small blind raises she can check-raise for the fold equity from representing pocket sevens.

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The small blind checks.

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… okay, he's just about playing with his cards showing at this point. The confused amount of preflop aggression points to very strong hole cards, but checking behind on the flop points to a missed set with no hope of semi-bluffing. For overly cautious players there is exactly one hand that fits this description: ace-king.

Now, how best to exploit this knowledge…

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The turn card is the six of diamonds.

Shiro 🃙 🂹
Community 🂳 🂣 🃇 🃆
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The wide player checks.

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Shiro is about to raise by a thousand chips when a voice in her head that sounds remarkably like Sora points out that poker continues to not be a game of pure mathematics. One thousand might be a good raise against an expert player over the computer, but these people are obviously scared of large numbers. Give them a good price to stay in, the way the small blind gave Shiro a good price with the first raise, and they'll be more likely to call.

She makes it 300 instead.

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The tight player calls; the wide player mucks his cards.

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Shiro deals an eight of spades on the river.

Shiro 🃙 🂹
Community 🂳 🂣 🃇 🃆 🂨

She's so far ahead, the only thing that matters is extracting more value. One more raise, another 300 chips into the pot.

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The tight player is nervous. He's not quite sweating, but he looks distinctly uncomfortable and he's fidgeting like he wants to stand up and pace. After twenty seconds of thinking about it, he calls and shows his hand.

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"Two pair, threes and nines," Shiro murmurs, sweeping the chips into her stack once more. It would be crass to comment on her ace-king prediction coming true.

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"It's like playing poker with a statue," the wide player jokes. "You could sit out in the garden and birds would land on you."

The tight player looks like he wants to cry.

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"I like birds," Shiro says inanely, passing the deal to the tight player. All she can think is that Sora would know what to say to make him feel better.

(She would try, but she doesn't want to risk making him more upset. If he leaves the table, she can't keep taking his chips.)

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Stephanie is lurking, incognito.

After officiating the start of the tournament she retreated to the stairwell and swapped out her dress for a servant's uniform. A completely different hairstyle beneath an old scarf, some grease smudged across her face, a pair of half-moon spectacles, and she's suddenly hard to recognize as the princess if you're not looking for her. She's written herself into the catering org chart under a different name, where her role is to take down the rate at which the guests are eating through the castle's pantries so the kitchens can adjust their output.

This is entirely superfluous – the staff are more than capable of tracking that on their own – but it gives her an excuse to stand around taking notes anywhere in the great hall while no one gives her a second thought.

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The first page in her notebook is filled with numbers describing food consumption. It's superfluous, but why not double-check her kitchen's work while she's at it? It's also what observers expect to see, should anyone catch a glimpse of her handwriting.

The other pages are more interesting. Sora and Shiro have given her instructions on how to identify strong players – in practice, that designation only appears to apply to Chloe Zell, but there are some warning signs she's on the lookout for between hands, just in case. Right now, she's standing behind Zell and observing.

Her notebook has a separate row of tallies for how often Zell has raised, called or folded, and in what order. The last pages of the notebook list various showdowns, including Zell's final hand and whether she won. It works out to nine different numbers, plus a tenth one for hands where she wasn't able to record all the information. They're labelled as different types of appetizers rather than poker statistics, just in case. She'll reconstitute the original meanings for Shiro later.

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Zell has been playing for one and three-quarter hours, which works out to 197 hands at her table. 129 of them were folded instantly, while the remaining 68 were played out to varying conclusions. The main thing Stephanie has learned from this exercise is that Chloe Zell is extremely good at poker, but Sora clearly expects this information to be useful so she's doing her best to keep that tenth tally short.

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A servant emerges from the kitchen armed with a plate of water glasses. With the amount of alcohol they've been serving, the butlers have decided to remind the guests that other beverages exist ahead of schedule.

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She'll have one of those. Keeping score is thirsty work.

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"Don't mind if I do," says a nearby woman, taking a glass for herself.

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Stephanie thinks she's seen this woman before. Recently, in fact. Her face is familiar, somehow. And her voice… oh no, now she's staring at her.

"Begging your pardon, miss," she says deferentially, looking away.

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"Worry not."

:We have a problem. The princess has been watching you play poker for at least thirty minutes. I mistook her for one of the maids until just now.:

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:Yes? How is this a problem?:

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:She's tallying something. If it's data on the hands you've been playing—:

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:—she's looking for proof that I'm winning too much. Blast. What are my options?:

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:Princess Stephanie hasn't spoken to anyone since I first noticed her. No one is using magic to read her mind or look over her shoulder. I don't think she's passed anything on yet.:

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:You think she has confederates?:

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:This is an unusually sophisticated analysis, by human standards, and you have forbidden her from playing. My guess is that she plans to shore up her argument and induce one of your opponents into accusing you of cheating. Possibly one of the people you're playing with right now.:

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:Can't you read their minds to confirm?:

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:It would take too long to uncover traces of the conspiracy if they aren't actively thinking about it, which they are not.:

What to do, what to do…

:Continue as planned until I give the signal, then get up to take a break and rotate tables. Pick one with new players. At the next table, play unaided. If Princess Stephanie introduces an accusation at that point, it won't stick. We resume once I've confirmed that the princess does not suspect my involvement.:

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:Got it. ❤️:

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:❤️:

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Sora's game with Stephanie is just one of the many simplified versions of poker used to explore the underlying game theory. Like stripping the parts from an engine to see how it works, these shadows of the true game can illuminate the best way to play for real.

Another such game is poker without forced betting. Suppose you're playing a game of no-limit Texas hold 'em, identical in every respect to the game as it is commonly played but without blinds or antes. What is the Nash equilibrium strategy?

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Without involuntary betting, there's no incentive for any voluntary betting under conditions of uncertainty. The Nash equilibrium is to only ever play with the best possible hand – that being pocket aces, at least before the flop – and to immediately fold to any aggression. This sets the opponents' expected reward for showing aggression to zero regardless of what cards they have, which is the same reward they get for checking behind on every street until showdown (at which point the best hand either wins nothing or splits the pot with an equally strong hand).

The only winning move is to leave and do something more worthwhile with your time.

This has two implications for real poker. The first is that, should you find yourself not winning, you should leave and do something more worthwhile with your time. The second is that poker is a game where the blind structure is paramount. As tournaments drag on and players hemorrhage chips into the pot for someone else to win, the blinds are the slowly advancing wall of death that eliminate the weakest players first.

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After the first blind increase to 50/100, Shiro goes from a good position to a great position. After the second blind increase to 75/150, Shiro goes from a great position to a dominant one. Her massive pool of resources gives her a comfortable buffer to make raises when her range has even a microscopic edge. This strategy has a lot of variance, but by the 200th hand the tight player has busted out and the loose aggressive player is faring poorly. The other players at the table have their own quirks and foibles, giving Shiro ample opportunity to drain their chips into her own stack.

The tournament must be getting to the point where the organizers start breaking up and consolidating tables. Six players is on the low end for a poker game; five is pushing it.

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Sora ought to be paying attention to this as well, since he'll be directing her to a new table once she's finished butchering this one, but Shiro is also on the hunt for signs of players who don't know how to react when they're losing at tournaments.

Early tournament play is only analogous to cash games for players with an M-ratio of around 20 or higher (the current blinds sum to 225, meaning that anyone who is not down more than 500 chips is still in this position). Below that, the conventional wisdom is that players descend through varying stages of needing to play looser and more aggressive in order to avoid ignominious defeat. This is fundamentally why the tighter player is gone: having failed to adjust his preferred playstyle, he was simply not going to be dealt enough strong hands to afford to continue playing. Beating down people like him is the cornerstone of their plan.

Shiro would ideally start making completely outlandish preflop raises with objectively bad cards to bully the rest of her table around with her winnings, but by sheer happenstance the loose aggressive player's unaltered strategy is a good counter – she's toning that down whenever she acts before him.

(Having a reliable signal that your cards are marginal is to be avoided in most games, but Shiro still doesn't believe anyone here is reading her in enough detail to set up a counter-exploit.)

There remains value to be extracted from this table, since she's got a decent understanding of all of the players after playing with them for hundreds of hands, but『____』can win so much more by working together. Hopefully Sora's half of the plan is going apace.

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The floor is in the process of getting the people who were up and about to sit down and go back to playing poker, along with encouraging tables to break for lunch in unison. Anyone who wants to play short-handed at the beginning of the tournament is welcome to it – there's a table of heads-up hold 'em on one side of the room right now – but six seems to be just right for letting skill shine through the noise of luck.

One such table is Chloe Zell's, where the action is coming to a close earlier than expected.

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"What? No!"

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"She still has sixteen hundred chips. Why is she leaving?"

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"She's been drinking all morning," Sora points out laconically. A few people titter in response.

She was the ideal candidate: a woman playing against Zell, plausible for an outsider betting on the local action to pick as the weakest link, but virtually guaranteed to visit the little girl's room before anyone else busted out. She was the first to leave the table, which were his exact words when specifying the wager, but any reasonable interpretation would suggest that the wager is still unresolved. Two thousands chips is too many to let indeterminate phrasing pass by, which means the man he's gambling with will accuse him of cheating. He'll deny the accusation, and Disboard's response—

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"Of all the crummy luck," he says, sounding resigned.

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What? No, he's supposed to—

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The hijack was the weakest player at the table, sure, but it's clear that Petra is getting worse over time. If she doesn't sharpen up (she won't) he's going to lose fair and square. Might as well get it over with before—

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:Go.:

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She smiles, laying her cards down

"Lunch time already, Petra? I suppose time slips past when you're having fun."

She leaves the table as well.

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The rest of the players are quickly directed to new seats. The hijack, who really wasn't doing well either, breaks to follow Zell towards the food.

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Both of you seem to think this is a draw, so you're splitting nothing.

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"I ought to get playing," says the gambler. He takes his intact starting stack and leaves for the nearest open position.

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Inconvenient. Sora will have to launder a few of Stephanie's chips back into the tournament through some other player. Maybe he'll strike up a conversation with the approaching hijack, see if he can induce some more side action.

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Under the gun, Shiro raises by 450 chips.

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The loose player has 1,090 chips remaining in the small blind. It's a tough spot, but it's only 375 to call and he has ace-two suited.

He makes the call, and the flop comes with an inside straight draw and a backdoor hearts flush.

Shiro 🂠 🂠
SB 🂱 🂲
Community 🃄 🃛 🂵
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The pot is now 1,050. Shiro raises by 525.

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"You're making it too expensive to play this game," he mutters.

His inside straight draw, ace through five, is missing the three. Exactly four cards can give it to him – call it 1:4 odds, assuming Shiro doesn't have pocket threes – which is not great, but if you add the possibility of hitting two more hearts on the turn and river, the possibility of pairing his hole cards, or the possibility that Shiro has nothing and his ace wins, this is starting to look like a playable hand.

The problem is that raise. He only has 715 chips left – if he calls and loses, he's done for. Either he folds now and tries his luck later or he risks it all to get back to a safer position.

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He tanks, drumming his fingers on the table while he debates the decision. The kid's weirdly intense stare isn't helping.

In the end, it's the size of his stack that makes the decision for him. These are the best odds he's going to get.

"All in."

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Calling such a small re-raise is overdetermined no matter what cards she has. Shiro adds the requisite 190 chips, bringing the pot to 2140.

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The rest of the players lean in as they show their cards. A few people from neighboring tables turn around to watch.

Shiro 🂫 🂪
SB 🂱 🂲
Community 🃄 🃛 🂵
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"Run it once," she tells the dealer.

Top pair versus a drawing hand favors her, but not by as much as she'd like. He has a 31.21% chance of improving to beat her, which is closer to a coin flip than is strictly wise for this early in the tournament. Ideally she would let him have pots like this and wait to punish him from a stronger position, but what's done is done. Her range was ahead of his, it was the right call given the information she had, and even if she loses she's confident she can claw her chips back. Running it twice would reduce the variance, but it also reduces the number of hands Shiro can play – and the more she can play, the better her odds on the long run.

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The dealer turns over the seven of hearts…

Shiro 🂫 🂪
SB 🂱 🂲
Community 🃄 🃛 🂵 🂷
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… and the eight of spades…

Shiro 🂫 🂪
SB 🂱 🂲
Community 🃄 🃛 🂵 🂷 🂨

… missing the flush draw, the straight draw, and the other aces.

"A pair of jacks," says the dealer, signalling the end of the hand. A few people clap politely.

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The other gambler stares at her in disbelief. It is not the disbelief of someone who has lost a showdown he was unlikely to win in the first place – it is the disbelief of someone who is just now realizing that he will not be king after all.

"How old are you?"

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"I'm—"

Shiro pauses.

"I don't know how to answer that right now. I still haven't read any astronomy textbooks."

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There are four players remaining, and one of them is a monster disguised as a little girl. The rest of the table is going to take that as their cue to leave. Most of them are immediately re-seated by the staff, but Shiro is going to check in with Sora first. She's sitting at just under 15,000 chips, an M-ratio of 66.6, which gives her the latitude to target good players who haven't dominated their first opponents as thoroughly as Shiro did. The fewer good players make it past the middle of the tournament, the easier the final table will be.

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Sora might take a moment to notice her arrival, because he's succeeding almost as much as she is.

It turns out that hosting a gambling event to allocate power attracts two kinds of people: ones who want power, and ones who really like gambling. The hijack from Zell's table was interested in making a side bet, as were nine other people in line to pick up lunch. Sora has his hands full with bookmaking, and is now devoting a substantial fraction of his attention towards remembering where each of them put their money. The discussion has gotten fairly loud, which isn't helping matters, and the people vying for his attention are being more incessant than usual.

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"Hey. Hey, Sora! First table was fun! Were you watching?"

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What? He looks over his shoulder at his sister.

"That's great," he replies. "Do you want to grab a bite before going back?"

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"Later."

Sora doesn't think any of the current games stand out, so she allows herself to be pulled over to a brand new table by one of the maids. Four of the other players have dramatically fewer chips than her – the fifth is sitting at what looks like ten thousand.

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They draw cards to pick the first dealer, the blinds are raised to 100/200, and then it's off to the races.

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The instant Chloe's chips are off the table, Fiel excuses herself and makes a beeline for a distant boudoir on the second floor. She shuts the door, leans against it to prevent anyone from barging in, and casts her mind adrift.

Reading minds is not like reading books. Skilled wizards can peer into sensory registers and surface thoughts to experience them as though eavesdropping on a nearby conversation, but explicit memories that aren't at the forefront of the mind are harder to reach. Engrams are not indexed and searchable for the convenience of snooping telepaths. The trick, which is challenging even by the standards of mind-reading spells, is to use the host mind to traverse the grey matter network, hunting down stored memories on behalf of the mind-reader and bringing them bubbling up to the top.

This presents something of a problem: Fiel can tell in an instant what any given castle inhabitant is thinking of, but pushing for more information on the plot against her and Chloe will cause anyone who is not currently thinking about it to consider it briefly. This is a famous tell for whether one is having their mind read, of the sort that even people with no training in resisting telepaths are very likely to have heard before. While the vast majority of the humans in this castle have never been actively scanned, anyone who is focused intently on something else (such as, for example, a game of poker) will notice at once if their thoughts are being nudged by an external force.

So she starts with a passive scan, hoping to get lucky.

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Nothing immediately jumps out.

The first thing Fiel notices is that she cannot get away with actively scanning this venue. Nearly everyone is deep in concentration; even one active scan is more likely to be noticed than not. It's just as well that passive scanning is undetectable without mage-sense, or else this whole scheme wouldn't work in the first place.

Obvious targets first. Princess Stephanie's mind is warded against intrusion, which prevents her from lifting the details directly from the one person bound to be thinking about them, but a quick once-over of the staff interacting with her reveals that most of them don't know what's going on: she's added herself to the roster under a pseudonym, and her disguise is apparently good enough to fool her own employees. The non-humans in the room are equally opaque – Bragi and Maria are shielding themselves and werebeasts are immune to mind-affecting magic – but Fiel doesn't think any of them are conspiring against her.

Her current theory is that Stephanie is gathering evidence to present to an unwitting accomplice, someone selected in advance to level the accusation at an opportune moment, and it needs to be someone reasonably competent. Someone who understands poker well enough to develop a justified belief that Chloe Zell has been cheating after reading a notebook full of her play history. That narrows the field considerably.

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Fiel is no card sharp (that's her partner's job), but she can make educated guesses. Her attention flits from skull to skull, keeping track of players who stand out. The ones who think of nothing but numbers, the ones looking for tells, the ones paying attention to the hands they aren't playing, the ones whose minds are shielded from view. She passes their names and faces to Chloe while she works, although she refrains from providing any commentary. No more cheating, at least until they're no longer doing damage control.

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Of the members of the audience whose thoughts are visible, only one is more absorbed in the tournament than he is in the conversation he's leading.

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This is enough to warrant observation, but it's only when Fiel gets a look at his face through Chloe's eyes that she makes the connection.

:That one was at the Railbird's Perch yesterday.:

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Chloe's eyes dart towards Sora.

:He booked a room just before we left. I saw him talking to the concierge.:

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:And went upstairs right as your stud game with the princess ended.:

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She catches the drift.

:Was he watching me?:

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:Then, yes. Today, unclear. He's thinking about player performance by table, not cheating. I want to take a closer look, but—:

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:I can—:

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:Be cautious.:

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Chloe sidles into the conversation as smoothly as she can. They're talking about… betting odds, it sounds like. There are tens of thousands of metallic poker chips lying around on tables, which – are they making side bets with tournament chips? Is that allowed?

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There are a few different ways of facilitating wagers on sporting events, but the simplest way is to offer moneyline odds. The payout is binary and phrased as a multiple of one hundred, which makes it easy for the bookmaker to tabulate their positions. Sora has his hands full creating a Dutch book – not an economic or epistemic Dutch book but a Dutch book in its original sense: laying favorable odds for himself in both directions, such that profit is guaranteed if enough gamblers take him up on it. The key word is 'enough' – Sora will not get an infinite number of clients, since he is not operating Hilbert's Hotel, so he needs a substantial edge to stop a few dark horses from wiping him out entirely.

Fortunately, he doesn't need to guarantee a large profit. The real goal is to distribute as many of Stephanie's original chips as possible back into the tournament pool.

 "Felix at table seventeen is done for any second now," says the next man in line, referring to a player that in all likelihood is not done for any second now.

"Minus one-fifty," Sora offers.

 "Minus what?"

"If you're right and he busts out first, I give you 150 chips for every 100 you stake on it."

 "What if I haven't got a hundred chips left?"

"75 for every 50, fifteen for ten, and so on."

 "Fifty against Felix it is."

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Juno Mandagot is probably the best source of information here, being a technically disinterested party.

"Is he trying to set up a prediction market?" she asks.

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It's amazing how many humans know what prediction markets are, seeing as Elkia has failed to use them in any meaningful fashion.

"Not feeling confident enough already, Zell?"

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She makes 'Zell' sound like an insult – more so than usual, that is.

"Confidence doesn't enter into it."

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"All about the money, aren't you? Goes a little further if you don't have to post blinds, betting until you've got a stack again."

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This really should not work. The blinds will go up too fast for anyone to stay in the tournament this way, unless Sora is exceptionally bad at bookmaking. They're better off in expectation by waiting at a table and hoping their opponents get bad cards. The odds of getting a lucky break are low but not as low as they could be, considering the average skill level in the room.

The more parsimonious explanation is that everyone here is bad at math. This is rarely a bad assumption, in Chloe's experience, but it doesn't explain why Sora is up here instead of down there.

"Information is always nice. What are the odds on me?" she asks him.

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"Couldn't say. No one is betting against you, that's for sure."

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"What if I wanted to bet against me?"

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"If you're as good at hold 'em as you are at stud, I'd say you could do better."

If it were anyone else Sora would offer them odds, if only to get an idea of what it'll be like when『____』reaches the final table with her. Coming from the woman herself, denominated in tournament chips and not gold, she could just be trying to distort everyone else's predictions.

And it's not like he needs that information. Either she'll play normally and lose, or she'll try to cheat him the way she cheated Stephanie yesterday and make his life easier.

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This cannot be happening.

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Oddly enough, Fiel isn't giving her any advice. Chloe decides to keep the conversation going.

"What odds have you offered so far? I could be persuaded to double up."

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On the one hand, this could be bad news. Unlike everyone else he's bet against, Chloe liking the odds enough to gamble is evidence that he's made a mistake. He would ideally offer her worse odds to compensate, which is presumably why she asked specifically about other players.

On the other hand, this could be great news. Win or lose, she's entangled either way.

Sora doesn't think any of this in so many words, he just feels a wave of satisfaction before he starts listing the wagers he's already made.

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Fiel doesn't care about any of that. She's busy steadying her nerve, preparing as delicate a spell as she's ever cast in her life. Sora thinking about Chloe cheating is a dark cloud with a gold lining: Chloe is on his mind, which means he won't be suspicious when she actively scans him. She needs to know where the leak was – if she can find and plug it without drawing suspicion this whole mess might still be salvageable.

It's also going to cost her a fair few lilims, but that's a small price to pay to stay in the game.

She tugs on the fading strands of memory and builds the scaffold, angling to have Sora revisit yesterday afternoon in a way that feels spontaneous and genuine.

How was Chloe Zell cheating?

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Her final hand was sixes full of twos, improving from two pair to a full house on the final card. Two pair is not a great hand facing an opponent showing an ace and a queen – half the time she ought to expect Stephanie to have a better two pair (assuming Stephanie will play literally any hand from the short stack, which is a dubious assumption), making this a bad situation to semibluff in. It would have been a good play in Stephanie's position, but as the player with more resources Chloe was (in expectation) giving her opponent a better price on her last hand for no good reason.

This was such a bad choice that he immediately suspected her of cheating. Players who don't know how to handle endgame spots like that don't go on to win major tournaments. The more attractive explanation for calling Stephanie's raise with a garbage hand followed by calling Stephanie's all-in with a weak two pair is that Chloe knew what her last card would be in advance.

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what

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This is… relevant… because her ability to predict whether other poker players will win or lose is indicative of actual skill? It's safe to assume she's not enabling other cheaters in the same tournament she wants to win, right?

Sure.

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Ah, watching people self-rationalize never gets old.

Fiel ends the spell and opens her eyes. She hasn't answered all of her questions, but what she's got is good enough for now.

Sora doesn't know Chloe is cheating, nor does he know how. He only suspects, albeit with what he believes to be strong evidence. It probably is strong evidence – the conclusion flowed from the premise and Fiel doesn't know enough about poker to say otherwise. But he doesn't know. As long as Chloe is not actively cheating when he accuses her, she'll be fine. Mystery solved.

This information ought to be conveyed to Chloe as soon as possible. Unfortunately, Sora did not think about Princess Stephanie when prompted, and pushing him further in that direction risks alerting him to her presence. If Stephanie recruited this guy to help sink Chloe's chance at victory there could easily be other collaborators in the crowd, waiting to strike. Fiel needs to be absolutely certain before she resumes her role in this farce.

:Can you risk a few chips on a wager with him, dear?:

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:Yes.:

Sora's offering −125 on a middling player and −200 on a player who is quite bad but not all that likely to bust out first; she'll put 300 chips on both of them. Risking 600 chips won't make a difference in the long run, not with Fiel backing her up, but it's a gamble she'd happily make on her own. Neither of those players are making it to the final table, so their bet will resolve one way or another before it really matters.

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Damn, the two wagers he was the least confident in. This'd be a real kick in the gut if the result had any bearing on 『____』.

"You don't need to leave your chips with me," he says, offering her a handshake. "I'll come by to settle up when the action's over."

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"See you then."

Sucker.

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Sucker.

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That will do. She won't risk another active scan, but prompting Sora to think about Chloe more frequently raises the odds that he'll inadvertently leak the identities of his partners. He has at least one, although even in his thoughts he was careful to avoid naming them. Once she has the full picture she can decide how to proceed – not directly, not in a way that a human is likely to detect, but anything that won't make them suspect Chloe's involvement is on the table. That means acting at one remove, arranging catspaws, and going behind Chloe's back to give her plausible deniability.

Fiel Nirvalen has precious few assets she can use here. Chloe Zell isn't just her ace in the hole, she's her only ace. She needs more options.

:Keep an eye on Sora for a minute or two. Tell me if he approaches anyone.:

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:Will do. It hasn't happened since I left the game.:

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Fiel pinpoints every mind in the castle between herself and the sixth floor before breaking into a sprint. Elves are ordinarily a bit slower than humans on foot, but magical enhancement more than makes up the difference. She traverses the castle faster than any human could run, climbing the staircases at speed with less physical exertion than a leisurely stroll, and reaches the unoccupied baths without crossing anyone's path.

It's the middle of the day, which means the castle's hot water supply is being put to use elsewhere. It'll take time to bring the baths up to temperature if she does it the normal way, flushing out the lukewarm water and replacing it from the cistern, so Fiel uses magic to boil what's already there. There's not a lot of room to cleverly optimize what is essentially a spell to convert lilims into thermal energy, but she has more than enough strength to do it in seconds. The water shimmers and bubbles and erupts with steam, drowning the baths in an oppressive hot fog. A thin film of moisture beads up on the floor; the wall on the opposite side of the baths is a little hard to make out.

She locks the door and closes the windows. It's already uncomfortable in here, but it's about to get much worse.

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Arcane magic is logical. Orderly. The underlying structure of Disboard permits simple changes at the behest of elementals, changes so small and fundamental that scientists have yet to find anything less complicated in their causality. Spells weave these threads into vast tapestries, chaining lesser effects together to form greater ones. Anyone with spirit circuits can be taught to do it, and anyone clever enough to understand the logic can permute it according to their own designs. Despite its counterintuitive properties, at its heart there is an appealing elegance.

Divine magic is bullshit. Gods can do impossible things if they want them hard enough. There must be some limit to their power – the universe has only been reshaped according to a god's desires once, and even then Tet exercised restraint – but elvish science cannot fathom where it lies.

Fiel can establish a mental bond with anyone she knows well at preposterously long distances. There is no point on Disboard from which she could not speak to Chloe, if she so desired. It's dumbfounding and slightly aggravating that divine communion is fueled not by lilims but by ritual.

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Dark eddies swirl in the mist. The stonework seems to shiver and bend, writhing at the edges of sight until the whole room is subsumed by a uniform grey haze and disorienting humidity.

For a moment, nothing happens.

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Another elf-maid emerges from the distance, far beyond what distance there exists to stand in. She wears a crown of twisted vines and an arrestingly green dress, stained black at the shoulder from the trickle of blood flowing from the corner of her mouth and rent to tatters below the knee. Her smile is nothing short of beatific, and her eyes…

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Fiel meets her gaze fearlessly, ignoring the strain building up inside her spirit circuits.

"I've run into a serious problem. Another player has inferred Chloe is cheating from observing her play history and plans to use this fact against her. It is most advantageous for them to reveal this information at the final table, minimizing the number of remaining competitors after the disqualification, so I expect to have a few hours before I'm forced to react."

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"Do you have other assets that can take her place?"

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"Not without raising suspicion. Chloe Zell is widely believed to be the strongest gambler in the country, and all of her serious opponents are known quantities with public recognition. If she loses to a dark horse entrant there will be all kinds of accusations levied against both her and the winner. My current plan is to give her an overwhelming chip lead going into the final table, allowing her to win the crown fairly from that point on. I may also try to knock the conspirators out of the tournament, once I find them all."

That is, provided she can find a way to do it. The main thing she knows about these people is that they can identify poker cheaters, which makes even more cheating against them specifically a dicey proposition.

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The goddess nods. "Very sensible of you. Thank you for keeping me appraised."

The conversation lapses into silence.

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Is that it? Apparently that's it.

Fiel was not exactly expecting a miracle, but even a modicum of divine intervention at this late hour might tip the scales. It can't hurt to ask, and it's why she initiated this divination in the first place.

(It can absolutely hurt to ask, but Fiel has been blessed with a goddess unusually tolerant of mortal foibles and willing to help her personally. Clerics of other deities shy away from requesting miracles outside their god's domain, and for good reason.)

"Is there anything else you can do to ensure our success?"

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Kainath frowns. The mist churns faster and the temperature rises further, though the divination remains stable.

"Not especially. You're in a castle at the heart of a city, and there are only two elves on the premises. My domain is ill-suited for this. Everything I could do, I did through you."

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"In that case, th—"

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"All right, all right, I'll try!" the goddess interrupts frantically. "I don't know how or when, but I shall do my best to make it work."

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"Thank you. I appreciate it," Fiel says honestly.

That took less prodding than expected. She won't count on Kainath's assistance, variable as it may be, but having her on the lookout for an opportunity is better than a kick in the teeth, and it will hardly distract her from lying on a divan beside some idyllic pond while cute woodland animals and small children gambol nearby beneath the shade of ancient trees.

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"Excuse you, I've been very productive today," Kainath says fondly. "This tax legislation isn't nearly maundering or vague enough to pass the senate, but it'll do for the initial committee review."

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Not going to deny the rest of it?

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"This is my work divan."

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Hah hah hah, ugh. Fiel has ticked both of the boxes on this detour and she's going to wrap it up before she thinks anything else unflattering to her goddess runs out of stamina and faints in a human bathroom. The vertigo is already threatening to overwhelm her.

"I'll be in touch with you soon. Elven Gard forever."

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"You worry too much, Fiel. It's not sacrilege unless I say it is."

Kainath gives her a brief but unquestionably material hug, in total contravention of divination magic's inability to transmit anything other than information.

"I believe in you," she whispers.

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The communion dissipates like morning dew.

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Hmm. There are more interested parties today than appeared at first blush, and therefore potentially more at stake.

However, if Kainath is unwilling to directly intervene by coming to Elkia City, her actions are unlikely to dramatically upset the status quo. The tournament remains unimportant.

The angel in the castle library resumes reading, pleased that the brewing crisis has failed to transpire.

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Fiel drops to her knees, breathing hard, and waits for the black spots in her vision to subside.

Thirty seconds. Sixty seconds. Ninety seconds.

Once she's confident she can walk without swaying, Fiel makes her way back towards the ground floor. The rush of cool air outside the baths feels nice against her skin, and reminds her that she needs to dry off if she wants to avoid being inexplicably damp. She also needs to update Chloe, though she's not looking forward to it – the spell for tidying off is barely more than a cantrip, but telepathy will cause her inchoate headache to blossom spectacularly.

:Anything?:

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:Sora excused himself to talk to the princess for a moment. I couldn't overhear them—:

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— because he moved to avoid Chloe while plotting, of course he would, but could he have somehow known that Fiel was distracted? Does he even know she exists? What is Sora thinking right this second?

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Juno's fur is so soft it's not even funny. She's purring again – what does it mean when a cat furry does that, is it the same as petting a regular cat or does it have cultural nuances? Nobody here seems to think it's weird or scandalous, but most of the people here are humans who might not know anything about the furry way of life. The best person to ask might be Maria, or maybe Stephanie once the dust settles. Man, everyone here loves the sound of their own voice. Ah, that was a joke just now, time for a polite laugh.

(Sora is also reading from what looks like a servant's notebook every now and then, filled with tally columns labelled with types of food. If you didn't know exactly where that notebook came from it would be completely innocuous, albeit slightly out of place in the hands of a man dressed like a baron. The meaning of those numbers isn't quite materializing in his stream of thought, but the details are clearly important.)

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Fiel's spirit circuits are already complaining from overuse and another active scan isn't going to help, but she's not going to find a better opportunity by waiting. She disrupts Sora's thought process as he reads, gently pushing his attention towards the werebeast and the conversation at the same time, and waits for him to reorient. What was Princess Stephanie writing about?

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She was recording poker statistics.

It is sometimes useful to rank poker players along two axes: range, the percentage of preflop hands they're inclined to play, and aggression, their propensity to raise or call rather than call or fold. Inexperienced poker players, like most of the other people in this room, gravitate towards a specific playstyle and have difficulty adjusting on the fly, which allows more skilled players to exploit their vulnerabilities: bluffing less often against players that only play good hands, making larger raises against players that don't like calling even when their cards are good, and so on. This information can be broken down even further – preflop versus postflop aggression, whether the victorious hands are coming from stolen blinds or showdowns – but at a very high level it's useful for categorizing several players at once.

Stephanie's assessment of the players who currently have deep stacks suggests all of them are very consistently tight-aggressive. This incidentally does well against a majority of weak players, but the raw statistics don't quite distinguish between genuinely good players and ones who coincidentally prefer a strategy that does well in this environment. Nevertheless, Sora has a good feeling about how the rest of the tournament is going to go down.

Sora takes a deep breath and forces himself to relax, bringing the ink on the page back into focus. Now is not the time to get distracted for real.

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The clarity passes like a flash of lightning, too quick to illuminate more than the shape of Sora's thoughts, but she sees the crux of it.

:Go back to playing,: she orders, and terminates the connection. She needs to rest, and Chloe can manage without her master for a while.

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:Can do.:

But the telepathy is off, leaving her alone in her own head.

Chloe's not entirely sure what has Fiel so concerned, but nothing she can think of is particularly reassuring. She finishes her lunch, excuses herself, and picks a table that looks soft enough for her to take down without help. If Fiel doesn't reach out to her by the time she's at the final table, she'll have no choice but to assume they were caught.

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