It's 9:45 am. A little over 24 hours since Tharrim checked the updates at the start of his shift. The markets on Kalorm tolerating lighter sedation (both the one on 'to the point of responding purposefully to painful stimuli' and the later one on responding to verbal instructions) have now closed.
For tolerating bed-based rehab exercises – well, it's going to depend a lot on Kalorm's mood, but despite the additional time he spent chemically paralyzed and then sedated too deeply to move spontaneously, his raw muscle strength actually seems better than he did on his first wakeup? They're inferring a lot based on exactly how effectively Kalorm was squirming himself around in bed while not fully awake, but - it seemed like substantially more effectively than before? He knocked one of his armrest pillows onto the floor, like, five times. And he's still on vasopressors, but his blood pressure and O2 saturation both tolerated his initial panicky-combative response to waking up disoriented. So, probably, his hemodynamics and oxygenation won't end up being a barrier, if Merrin wants to encourage him in some gentle exercises in a few hours?
It does seem very possible that, on the amount of sedation they need to keep him from fighting the ventilator, Kalorm will be too sleepy to feel like participating. (It's also possible that they've just burned through a lot of his willingness-to-cooperate with anything that Kalorm finds tiring or unpleasant, but Merrin is really good at coaxing him into things, and - probably once the best course of action for his longer-term outcomes involves coaxing him to be more active rather than convincing him to chill and accept invasive treatment, Merrin will be on that?) Getting Kalorm doing things with his body before he loses any more muscle strength or flexibility is a priority, though, and he tolerated waking up better than expected. They suggest dropping the sedation another 10%, and the opioids by 25%; they're now committed to giving him scheduled fever-reducing drugs, so the anti-shivering function isn't as badly needed, and he wasn't complaining of pain. If he does express later that his sternum or ribs are bothering him, they can afford to try a stronger local nerve block, since he's definitely not coming off the ventilator today and is still on a set rate.
...Anyway. The 20% / 50% / 80% spread for when he'll end up starting rehab exercises is now the narrowest it's been to date, at 6 hours / 9 hours / 14 hours, though the rehab experts are definitely going to recommend a cautious and gentle progression. But most of the complications that Kalorm is still at risk of in the next 24 hours won't actually prevent him from doing any physical exertion, and a lot of the late complications that are an inherent risk to any long hospitalization – blood clots, skin breakdown, loss of muscle and bone mass – are ones where getting him mobile as soon as possible is the best prevention. So the medical team (including Merrin) should consider this one of their top priorities today, secondary only to keeping Kalorm's vital signs in normal range.
In terms of getting him up out of bed and walking– well, now that he's actually getting kind of close on this, and it makes sense to drop more liquidity on the rehab-specific prediction markets, they're adding in more detailed interim outcome-endpoint predictions, based on the various stages of the progression that they want Kalorm to work through. The first step is to get him sitting up on the edge of the bed – not even standing, yet, but able to, with his feet on the floor and some help from the medtechs, have good enough core and abdominal muscle strength and balance (not to mention his heart and lungs tolerating it) to hold himself sitting upright for five minutes. There are a number of interim steps to work through to reach this goal, and right now Kalorm's hemodynamics and respiratory function would be a barrier. (Though still being on a ventilator, or requiring some vasopressors, is not by itself a reason not to attempt this.) The current spread for when he'll get there is 24 hours / 60 hours / 4 days.
After that, the next goal is for Kalorm to stand for 3-5 minutes - with assistance from his medtechs, especially for the sitting-to-standing transition, but once he's upright his legs will need to be strong enough to support most of his weight, the help is mainly there for balance. This obviously puts much higher demands on his heart and lungs, and given the risk if he suddenly drops his blood pressure, Treatment Planning would prefer not to approve it until he's off the ventilator and maintaining adequate oxygenation on less than 50% O2 at rest, and has been off vasopressors and hemodynamically stable for at least 24 hours. The current spread for when he'll get there is 48 hours / 4 days / 7 days.
(Even before they're quite at the point when it's medically safe for Kalorm to try standing for an extended period in preparation for walking, they can have him briefly stand in order to pivot and deposit himself - with a lot of help - in an armchair, or on a bedside commode once he has the rectal tube out. This is often a pretty big deal for patients, subjectively speaking, even though the standard hospital bed can be transmogrified into basically an armchair without their help, and highly optimized bedpans - along with the 'bedpan hole' mattress mod - aren't even especially uncomfortable to sit on.)
For getting all the way to assisted walking at least 5 meters, the spread is 72 hours / 5 days / 9 days. For making it 50 meters on his own, 5 days / 8 days / 12 days.