Well, that's a plausible justification for arranging Maillol a nice resort vacation, at least? Though she's still worried he's going to be recalled from it if she hasn't acquired a new project manager. Maybe she can put Pilar on it. 

Does he recommend any resorts?

He listed off two options depending on whether she wants somebody to be able to escape their vacation or not.

Ah, Cheliax. Carissa is genuinely and sincerely going to miss it. 

Not that much. 

She would like Maillol to spend a week at the resort that is not a prison, and will send them a note to that effect, emphasizing that Maillol is a valued person to the Chelish state if he recovers.

She will write back to Alexite saying apologetically that the resort is in fact for the last project manager. She is confident she won't make that mistake again but understands he might not want to rely on that. 

There's a lot of other stuff she'd have put on this scaffold, if she'd known her plan when she started preparing spells, but that'd probably arouse their suspicion, and she can't afford that; this plan goes most smoothly if they're not worried there's a plan at all. She doesn't think that squeezing a Silent Image onto the end will similarly attract concern; she prepares that one a fair bit, for lectures. 

She listens to the rest of her mail, authorizes a couple of things, and starts tying the spells off.

Teleport, Greater Invisibility, Fly, Detect Thoughts, Silent Image. She should in principle be able to prepare way more spells than that but this is an incredibly sloppy scaffold. It's probably all the emotional distress. 

Here goes, then. 

She'd love her Glibness pin but activating it would be incredibly suspicious. "I have some guesses to convey about what Keltham might be doing."

"Can relay."

...guesses she worked out while doing a decent second-attempt 5th-circle scaffold, and also answering her mail, apparently...

"He's smart; we were obviously going to move me to safety on a probe from a scry, so that was intended. Intended why? Maybe he's going to destroy the Project site and wanted me out of the way first, except in that case I'd have expected the followup very shortly after. Maybe he's planning to Discern Location and come after me while I'm obviously going to have fairly little Security by comparison. Maybe he's planning something wildly more complicated than that, but regardless I'm in retrospect unhappy that we did the precise by-the-book thing in response to his perturbation; it means we are definitely precisely where he planned for and wanted. 

I'm somewhat tempted to go to Dis off that alone."

Or to, you know, hold hands and smile while you cast a Plane Shift to Dis, at least.

"Try to route to Her Majesty or do you want to bid for my making the call on that here and now?  Base site doesn't currently have direct comms to anyone with more relevant authority than mine."

"Osirion has bizarrely good intel on us, always has, we have no idea why. If you can't reach Egorian directly I say decide yourself."

"You're the Keltham expert.  I'll make the call, but if you don't think we need to run out right now, talk to me for a half-minute about what you think here, what decision you'd make if it was you, why you'd make that call."

"Keltham did something that was obviously going to be noticed, and has not yet followed it up with anything else. The obvious effect of what he did was myself and I assume probably also Her Majesty being immediately taken to safely. Anyone with knowledge of Chelish procedure would have predicted that. Therefore, it's probably the intended result. 

I don't know what he's playing at. Dath ilani stories feature very complicated plans; they're all clever sexually frustrated sadists and they like it that way. My only takeaway from the fact I can't understand his plan is that it's bad news. I don't know where we are, but Keltham does, and that gives me a bad feeling.  If we wouldn't have sent me and Abrogail to bunkers because he told us to then we shouldn't have done it now. 

I don't think he'll predict Dis. People don't just walk right into Hell, it's not safe at our level except for how I'm Dispater's favored possession which he likely doesn't know yet, and even if he talked the entire Padishah Empire into coming to pick me up they'll refuse him, if I'm in Hell. For a wide variety of possible plans - anything involving kidnapping me, or demanding Cheliax return me if I love Abrogail more, or destroying Cheliax if it doesn't hand me over, or assassinating me - being in Dis thwarts them."

He considers, while also relaying the words through his Telepathic Bond, and makes the call.

They are in fact underneath Asmodeus's main temple in Ostenso - not wanting to move Sevar outside the noninterference zone to somewhere that gods could get at her - but an army to resist the Padishah Empire, that is not.  And the point about the action having no visible product except their own response action is giving him a bad gut feeling too.

"All right.  Let's go to Hell.  Abarco, you're first through the saferoom door."

"Respectfully, sir, I should stay behind in case Sevar tries to ditch the Plane Shift."

On second thought, she's not indifferent between slightly more competent and slightly less competent Abarco.

"Interesting idea, Abarco," says Commander Hadrian.

This fucking idiot.  Abarco did not need to say that out loud.  Well, Abarco will realize how he fucked up, once he gets the telepathic message that was already en route to relay, ordering Abarco silently to stay out of the Plane Shift so that a traitorous Sevar could just land on him.

(Partially it's his own fault, Hadrian is a fresh commander over Abarco and shouldn't have assumed Abarco knew Hadrian for a competent commander who'd think of that; should've warned Abarco of the plan by relay, before Hadrian said out loud that he was going along with it.  Not that this forgives anything.)

"You have foiled the brilliant stroke of my master plan to pass up dozens of opportunities to desert, demand to sell my soul, do so, and then immediately desert," she says dryly. 

They reach the edge of the Forbiddance. Rescue Teleport, Keltham? No?

Even at INT 24, you can't predict a sequence of events like that, or time it precisely when somebody is in a scry-screened area.  INT 24 is not enough to knock billiards into billiards and make trick shots deliberately.

In fact, that person's strategy was skewed towards exploration rather than exploitation, as makes more sense at the beginning of a task, where information is at its most valuable when amortized over all remaining time.

His plan was mostly that he would poke Cheliax and then observe what happened next using a pair of Discern Locations on the subsequent movements of Carissa Sevar and Abrogail Thrune.

The result of the Discern Locations were that Carissa Sevar was moved to beneath Asmodeus's temple in Ostenso and Abrogail Thrune was Mind-Blanked.  This does narrow down a lot of previously-probable-from-his-perspective variance-in-possible-worlds.

Based on the prior exhibited competence of Cheliax, and their lack of any established fictional genre or real-life history about dath-ilani-style dueling geniuses, he does not expect that Cheliax has deduced what he's doing, deduced his probable table of probable possibilities, figured out his sensory modality is Discern Location, and selected a response optimized over the update he'll make as a result.  Augmented Golarion mortals do not appear to be that smart, they do not know the direction in which to try to be that smart even if they have the theoretical brainpower for it.

He's going to track that possibility anyways, of course, that they have visualized him partially or in toto and optimized a response to update him in their preferred direction.  Abrogail Thrune wouldn't have planned that far in advance, the Conspiracy didn't plan that far in advance, but Carissa Sevar has now had serious dath ilani exposure and been issued an artifact headband.

INT 24 isn't enough to predict a sequence of events like that.  It is enough to list out lots of possibilities and optimize over the probable ones.

That person did explicitly consider that Carissa, having obtained an artifact headband, had been cognitively perturbed, and might defect from Cheliax once out of her previous state of mind.

That person did moreover explicitly consider that Carissa might be more ripe for defection from Cheliax if she was put into a situation where her mind was knowably-to-her probably not being read, such as a situation which prompted high-powered Nondetection, or Mind Blank.

This situation - as is, in fact, not exactly what has occurred - was his major possibility #5, subpossibility #5.3.  Probability 3%.

That person credits 'tropes' less than he once did, having worked out some of the hidden rails of causality underneath, that gods were meddling too.  But he assigns weird coincidences a higher probability than if he hadn't run into all the weird shit he had.  Something is messing with probability around this planet.

It is worth the extra effort to give that force some small boosts and opportunities to mess in his favor, if it happens to be so inclined.  That 3% chance is not the only equivalence-class of outcome where Carissa Sevar defects for some reason, today, as a result of causality playing out from his plan.

Therefore, that person has placed himself where he can hear a Sending (he's protected against Demands, obviously).

And he also timed his probe by when - according to Ione Sala's allowable pre-Nefreti knowledge - Carissa Sevar would just be waking up, if she was sleeping according to her usual Ring of Sustenance habits.  He timed it for then plus 20 minutes.  That, he reasoned, ought to prevent Carissa from having already hung spells that day; and would give Carissa a chance to hang spells useful in defecting, if she ended up put under a Mind Blank to prevent Wishnapping by him, and the artifact headband boosts made her realize that serving Asmodeus was stupid.

INT 24 is not enough to predict an exact sequence of events.

So that outcome is not mostly what that person expects to happen.  He's not going to show up with a mercenary army unless Carissa manages to call him about that, or signal him in any number of possible ways.  There's all kinds of possible ways for Carissa to escape once Mind Blanked, right?  Probably the tropes will be with her.

If the only result of things playing out like that is for Carissa to break with Asmodeus, but find herself with no clever options besides confessing the fact to Cheliax before they Detect her thoughts about it, they'll presumably employ her the way Asmodia was employed, or put her into storage to trade to him.  In this case they no longer have a high-level ilani augment of their own to oppose him.  That isn't his optimally desired outcome, but it's an improvement over status quo ante.

Besides the information gained by Discern Location, most of that person's positive expectations of probe results are about cases where Cheliax initiates negotations with him to not destroy Cheliax.  What actually happened instead, here, is not something where he could afterwards say, "all according to plan".  But that's how it goes when you're merely INT 24.

And now Hadrian has to make a call.  Actually leave Abarco behind?  With Sevar forewarned, she wouldn't be catchable that way...

Or he could secretly order Abarco to come with, and bet on Sevar not being sufficiently confident of his doing that, to stay behind, if she's a traitor.  Which she probably isn't, and Abarco is potentially pretty useful in Hell... of course, the traitorous Sevar would expect him to reason like that...

Eh.  Sevar's point about not being predictable to ilani is well-taken.

Hadrian orders over telepathic bond for base to spin some coins or roll a die, whichever they can get to immediately, and have Abarco stay behind with 1/4 or 1/3 probability.

Commander Hadrian doesn't have a fancy artifact headband, but he does have native INT 17 and a +6 headband and has read some Project Lawful Transcripts, so he's not wholly at sea in this crowd.

She really is going to miss it here. She takes Hadrian's hand, and Olegario's, and does not resist the Plane Shift.

Resist Energy (fire) for everyone.  Air Bubble for everyone.

Plane Shift to Avernus for everyone, roughly targeting an area he knows Cheliax sometimes passes through.  Abarco can stay behind if the probabilities went that way.

They came out in favor of his coming with. He's here. 

Carissa rolls her eyes at him. "My Teleport, I've been at this site most recently?"