"It's-- not just not working, it's not going to fail but doing it too much isn't safe. I'll try in a couple hours."
"In the meantime, um. I've been avoiding thinking too much about what Valentine said because it's horrible but I think I need to stop putting it off."
"So-- feel free to stop me if you think there's an obvious mistake I'm making--"
"One, my hypothesis space might be wider than most people's, but it is not infinite, and I don't make a habit of believing every claim I come across because I know I'm psychic and the Dreamlands exists. Most things that say they're magic turn out to be scams, and most impossible murders turn out to have been entirely possible all along."
"Two, Valentine Donovan is in fact in an insane asylum, and it is much more likely that the person in the asylum for the criminally insane is criminally insane than that Satan exists and likes to rape people to death for fun."
"But also, two-point-one, we don't actually know she was psychotic or hallucinated, and we do know she's a lesbian which is enough to get her into an asylum all on its own; which makes it somewhat less likely that she's just psychotic although not zero likely but also I'm concerned I'm doing motivated reasoning there because I really, really want it to turn out that if I could get her out I should."
"Which brings me to, three, none of that had any commonalities with the magic that I know to be true. It also had very few commonalities with magic that I know to be fake! But the vast majority of magic turns out to be fake and so that should be my prior unless I have very compelling reason to believe otherwise."
"Except, four, we have no explanation for how or why she would have or could have done the murder herself, and 'somehow through some means we don't know snuck in a knife, which for some reason she used to murder someone, and the knife was missed the first time somehow, and then more than a year later she murdered someone again, and she has never used the knife for anything else even though she's suicidal and has no reason to want the nurses dead, because she's insane' is not an explanation."
"And, five, her description of the murder matches up with what the street cat said about the bodies in the Roby house, and what Carter said about Parker means we now have three improbable accounts of impossible murders, and while all of these things are very unlikely individually, each one is evidence against the 'everything is perfectly normal and physically possible' hypothesis."
"...or, like, whatever it turns out to be it will have been physically possible, that being how things being true works, but conventionally understood to be physically possible."