"...No."

There's a hushed discussion at the head of the convoy, including the caravan wizard and the merchant leaders. Everyone else look uneasy. They're going to keep moving, though; the city's still more than an hour away, whatever's going on.

Half an hour later, the caravan leader, the same person that spoke to Blai before about coming with them, calls for everyone to stop. Projecting his voice, he announces, "We're receiving word that Hellios is invading Germina. Ger is under siege. We'll stop for now until we determine whether it's safe to return to Vesep."

Then he's walking towards the back of the train to check if the tagalongs have any questions.

Well that's inconvenient. He picked up a map a ways back, is there likely to be away to go around a conflict between Hellios and Germina?

Depends on his risk aversion. He can route through Khelt and Xar, which will be half again to twice as long as the original direct route. Staying within Germina but sticking to the more western cities would shorten that, but Germina isn't that big, and it's unclear if or when Hellios might march on them.

Would the long route get him to Levrhine in time to collect his message?

Yes by an okay margin, if he maintains the pace and there aren't giant mountains or impassable terrain not marked on the map. The "two to four weeks" estimate the escort gave was assuming finding caravans to travel with, and baking in unexpected delays on the high end, such as the one he is currently experiencing.

Alrighty. Anyone from this caravan want to go the long way around with him partway?

"Khelt doesn't let anyone through its borders," Tessane says on hearing his plan. "...Also, it's... full of undead."

"Do they like being full of undead?"

Exchange of awkward looks between the party members.

"They say they do."

    "I've never heard anyone claim it's secretly terrible or anything, but..."

"But it's still full of undead. I wouldn't want to live there."

"I'm better at fighting undead than at fighting most other things but if they prefer it that way that won't be much of a pitch. This way, then?" He traces through the west of Germina.

"We're actually specifically trying to go to Ger, so we're going to turn around if it doesn't look like that siege is going to get thrown off," Tessane says.

    "Yeah, we'll give that a shot," say two young men if he asks.

        "We'll go with you to Besan," one of the towns on the revised route, says an old woman.

"Maybe Gellis"—the caravan leader guy—"will have a suggestion?"

"Maybe." Does he?

"—that looks like it could work, but it'll depend on how far Hellios wants to push this. Our company's based in Levrhine, and I'd give it good odds we'll be back there in a month; trading in this area is going to be unprofitable in expectation for a while; so our final plans might end up working for you too. If there are some itineraries which you would be happy to join us on, and some you wouldn't, that's also a useful input into our decision, because having you along lets us tolerate a little more risk. On all of those we'll have more information in an hour; we're receiving updates via [Message]."

"My ultimate destination is months if not years away and I can tolerate some schedule slippage but I am meant to pick up a message in Levrhine soon. Is there a route you'd normally avoid but could take if I were supplying water? I can also do food but at greater opportunity cost, and only..." He's got more slots now, so... "fewer than twenty people's worth, at full ration."

"I'll have to check on the water one; it's not something we have ordinary cause to consider—a message in person, or a message via Mage's Guild?"

"Mage's Guild."

"They'll charge you through the nose for it—round trip message fee plus clerking fee, per message, basically—but you can have a specific message or a message inbox copied between multiple Guilds, as long as the message is in retention at the Guild you want it copied from." This is a common problem for frequent travelers!

"That's good to know."

"I'll get back to you once we have more information?"

"Yes, thank you."

Forty minutes later, he'll come back again.

"Vesep hasn't been attacked yet, but Hellios' official line on the war is very aggressive. We're tentatively inclined to redirect to Khelt, spend two days moving cargo, then head for Levrhine." He can trace it on Blai's map. It's only slightly longer than Blai's original plan that was shot down because of Khelt's closed borders. "Estimated 22 days to Levrhine."

Which puts a three-day buffer on Blai's message expiring. He can also point out multiple stops on the route with Guilds that should support syncing his inbox from Levrhine.

"Why does cargo moving take two days?"

"That's with a buffer for logistics and negotiation, given all the disruptions. We were originally supposed to merge with a spice caravan from the north to transport to Khelt, and their shipment got seized by Hellios. We're unsure if the empty caravan will be going to Khelt yet, which determines how much capacity we have to move goods out back to Belchan, and it's in question whether we'll be able to pick up everything we're meant to ship out even if we had the capacity, because we're not delivering on all of our contracts, thanks to the aforementioned seizure; there are goods we were meaning to offload in Ger which we might be able to sell or not in Edojaf; the remainder might depend on whether we can get credit with the local bank or with the government... So 'cargo movement' is an oversimplification, really."

So Ant Haul won't help, which was what he wanted to know. "Understood. I might follow someone else to Levrhine from Khelt if someone's going sooner but I will go with you that far."

"If you can find someone to travel with, then of course, but—do note that Khelt controls foreign travel in their borders very strictly. Our company and my caravan specifically is licensed for trade in Khelt, and I'd be acting as guarantor for your conduct while we're in Khelt, and if you don't have independent permission they won't let you move between cities alone. If the rest of us were somehow indispoed, or if you really had a truly urgent situation, you could petition the government and they would escort you to the border, but not to save two days. But if there's another traveling merchant willing to take you on, that would work."