At some point this winter he will be sent to the Worldwound. They're happy to feed first circle casters to the demons hand over fist if a few of them survive and become stronger.

If he goes, he's sure he will die. He's terrible at evocation and not strong enough yet to be put on enchantment duties in the backline. They're going to make him use all his spells on mount and endure elements and then he'll have to stand on the wall with a crossbow and miss demons with it until they kill him. 

Also, Cheliax is a terrible place full of torture and if he stays he'll go to Hell, which is so much worse than Cheliax and goes on forever. The Worldwound is even harder to leave and if he survives that they'll make him sell his soul and then he'll really have no choice. If he fails he'll get tortured and go to Hell but 'even more infinite torture' isn't actually something that makes sense as a deterrent.

Instead, he's going to do something else.

The students are watched but not nearly so carefully as the stronger wizards. Sometimes those on the enchantment track like him get sent to deal with disputes in the nearby villages by bespelling everyone involved. It's good practice with charms and also with surviving when someone wants you dead. That'll be his chance.

His plans are flipped on his head when the whole city rips apart and his bed is thrown into the wall, Tolar-first. It's jarring and painful and dazes him for a while but the mattress actually cushions him from the worst of the rest. It doesn't even take him that long to dig his pack out from the rubble. The oil flasks and inkwell are shattered, wasting all the effort he put into them and leaving a viscous mix sloshing around the inside of his bag. The paper is ruined too but everything else seems okay. His spellbook and money is never off his person and his clothes and blanket and bedroll weren't packed yet. 

The fires already spreading through the city give him more than enough cover to get out. On his way, he spots an opportunity. A nicely placed sleep on a staggering merchant and his partner, some quick work with a dagger, and a hurried investigation later, he has a new bag, quadrupled his money, and loaded up with as many supplies as he can carry. The guards at the shattered gate mostly have other things to worry about and a charm person helps get past the only one who notices him. A mount takes him far enough from the city to not get caught up in the immediate aftermath.

When the paladins start forming camps to feed and house the survivors, it's easy enough to join them. There's never quite sufficient food to go around, but there's no torture and his spells help him avoid the occasional fights and attempts at theft. Eventually everyone is brought back to the city and he can eke out a living selling his spells. He's so close to cracking second circle and when he does he can start really saving. If the schools here don't reopen he'd like to go to Andoran and learn at the academy, but it doesn't have the screaming urgency it did before.