Thank you for updating my probability distribution on what proportion of secret criminal sects you manage shockingly directly. It would however be useful to know more about the deviation from average, even if I may gain information of the overarching distribution from your revealed information.

One may believe whatever they wish to believe that plays into their biases.

These four are likely to play well together.

But will they succeed? Your estimates seem overunderconfident/miscalibrated in light of (53 citations of varying Horsemen capabilities, dangers in Abaddon that are not merely the Outsiders, semi-consistently worse outcomes than a prophecy supplied distribution would imply, poor prophecy convergence there even outside of those roughly-known adversarial selections, etcetera.)

Here is the updated version, as I was missing most of those negative prophecy behavior citations.

Despite this the plan remains optimistic. I have a decent amount of private information on top of what I have shown the two of you, which I possibly can not share even under a standard hiding information clause.

This was the problem with Norgorber: He was too unwilling to be caught for a crime, which lowered the value of being Neutral on the Law-Chaos axis in the first place.

There are many ways the agreements between Gods can be broken. Milani had been fined (post-facto paid with interest + opportunism fees) more than a dozen times for certain unlawful interventions. This could still end up net-positive for her, which was part of the benefits of the Chaotic alignment, but she could not skip paying if she got caught. Well, she could, but it would be of significantly lower utility for her. Typically the expected utility of breaking the Contract was lower than keeping to it.

Aroden was supposed to uphold the God-agreements made between most of the Gods. This wasn't an inherent part of being Lawful: you could simply uphold your end and just not help the breaking. But being Lawful made you an excellent choice for one of the Gods that notice and start the call to put a stop to (or merely inform of the fine) agreement-breakers. He needed as much budget as possible, and so he had volunteered. The Lawful alignment had been chosen for many reasons, even if it had been a natural fit.

So Aroden would be forced to fine Norgorber for breaking the agreement if he were caught with 'sufficient' evidence — there was no sharp delineation, of course. Just general knowledge that Norgorber had most likely broken the Contract of creation in some manner was not enough for him to be required to report or investigate. (Otherwise he'd have to investigate all the Chaotic Gods). Certain Contract rules had different stipulations for how they must be investigated — such as releasing Rovagug — or had truly astronomical fines.
If this plan seemed like it would work, Aroden would be more than willing to pay his fair portion of the expected fine/cost.

However, Norgorber was ideologically committed to not being found to have broken the law.
Of course, the statement that He was not willing to tell Aroden about certain secrets was information on the face of it.

For mortals this would hold true, but Norgorber was a God. There were decent chances all information had been legally obtained (if Norgorber had not felt an urge to commit a crime for the sake of it), but also decent chances that it had not. Thus Norgorber was using this as part of his general systematic methods of maintaining uncertainty about which world they were in, illicit or licit secrets, because of his aversion to being caught at all (and obviously the fine).

Yes, yes. I could admit to a crime, be the shame of all criminals everywhere (not that I am one), lose a third of my reputation, see my lease in Axis skyrocket in price, and then maybe bother around Abaddon myself because Godly rents are kind of expensive. I don't want to, you know this, shall we continue?

Agreed. 
(There were times when his calculations for Norgorber's expected-value for humanity fluctuated below what would have been the next best option of waiting for another Starstone challenger, but then sometimes the wily God pulled out a plan like this; a Crime domain did help)

She was busily reading through the notes at a slower rate than they were discussing. There was an interesting revolution going on in a Taldoran province led by a surprising individual — some duke or whatnot whose father had been a Paladin, egged on by an ambitious court sorcerer — which could end up going well with some twisting and luck.

She placed twenty percent that it was Norgorber deliberately distracting her, but she had yet to see a point in the conversation where it would be better to interject.

These four mortals invoke the general team of four that Abaddon provides us as a backdrop. Better than the current Horsemen in fact, only Charon remains intact from the early days and they're not exactly unified anymore.

Your chosen four don't fit the concepts; except for the one who worships me.

With the help of Norgorber and Milani he could see them better. Two male humans, a male halfling, and a female elf or half-elf. All decently powerful already. The halfling had the markings of a fighter/rogue, and was mildly a follower of Him.

(A phantom predicted pain of His once purely human emotions, that it would not save them from Abaddon)

The halfling, with these three lenses, drew into focus.

Power. That was what Jalar had realized he wanted from a young age.

Others were stolen from because they were, to put it simply for those who may fail to understand: Weak. Unable to protect themselves.
Partakers of taverns could be insulted because they were weak; different in manner but weak nonetheless.
He was weak for his stature was small. A grown man could lift him and throw his halfling frame through a window with ease — as had happened more than once.

Power was two wickedly-sharp long daggers. Power was a ring that made his skin harden. Power was not needing to care for anyone else, except for those you wished to. 
Power was the feeling of another's hips under him.
Power was simply being better, stronger, smarter, and luckier.

Norgorber only lightly received his attention, in the sense that any thief whispers a quick send-off when they are picking a lock under the moonlight.
Irori, but self-perfection was not quite power in Jalar's mind.

Aroden was the only God he could be glossed as following for he attended the Church once a month and paid his tithes. It helped him grow stronger mentally he felt, hearing the tales read from the book by the Cleric, of the rise and fall far beyond his own little city.

The power of becoming a God was what Jalar respected, but he also was not enough of a fool to think he had the capacity.

Thus he served as dedicated hired muscle. Intimidating weak shopkeeps for protection money. Dealing with guards after a job goes hot. Breaking into a building through force or by his pair of lockpicks. Protecting the spellcasters when they were hired out.

Jalar had few vices, for his primary vice was whatever let him feel in control of himself. And the best way to feel in control was to be in control, which power let you do.

At best he fits War, but he does not fight for fighting's sake, for a cause, as revenge, or anything that easily lies in War's retinue.
The remaining are blurrier, but I see now how they would be no better than he.

Only the far outcomes of the plan have them even trying at taking the place of all four, see Section 94,211 for an overview.

Simply having four tightly-knit is enough. Here are some statistical early tests, though I had to pay Daemons to avoid them eating these souls who knew each other in life. They tended to do better than a group of five or three, even in cases where they had less group cohesion. Have the full observational data as the sample size is so low, quite unmistakable. 

They all got eaten or horribly tortured then eaten or had their souls warped into magic items.

The test cases are also not as good as the four I've chosen.

Those weren't even prototypes really, just tests of whether a simple group of four would be distortionary enough to gain observable benefit.

That one is closeish to War helps too, I believe, and I expect they'll all grow a tad closer over time. Petitioners tend towards the behavior of the Outsiders of that plane, this draws out the Death, Famine, and Pestilence oriented attributes in them all.

I admit to intrigued uncertainty.

Let me analyze in more depth.

More of his shards coalesce into one.

Audacious would be a choice word to describe the proposed plan. It does not break any God-agreements that I know of, even private ones, so We should not have to fear invoking alliances beyond the natural incentive of Evil Gods to not let humans into positions of power within Abaddon. Which should hopefully be minor, as long as they are not being directly displaced.

Personally, I'm proud of Asmodeus not intervening. Some combination of increased tyranny in Abaddon due to an expected fewer souls getting eaten, more interactions with other planes to allow trade, and a guarantee that we'll try to encourage the four (were they to gain power) to not petition Pharasma to change the ability of petitioners to choose Hell over Abaddon. With some restrictions, of course. Here's the full preliminary contract.

...

A tenth of the contract terms in Your favor are ones Asmodeus has already bound Himself to by other agreements. Two-tenths are inconsequential to Him in the timespan the contract is limited to, unless We exceed all Your estimates. This clause would allow Him to trigger notable costs to you through relatively simple payments via an Abaddon proxy. 

Possibly have Abadar look them over as well. See if you can turn that three-tenths into a clause that Asmodeus'll not argue for any of them to go to Hell in court to knock out some failure modes, and a bit more nonintervention.

Also, Milani, you see I brought You here too for another reason, let's step aside so Aroden can bargain with dear Asmodeus —

Jalar glanced around at the two others behind him, them crouching as he merely stood. Glancing through the keyhole again he gave a sharp nod to his back, pushing the door open slightly to take a peek.