That'd be more intervention for the sake of keeping Cheliax than I would have anticipated Him being able to justify, but that was already the case since He made Abrogail ninth circle.

Exactly.

It's mild evidence that He thinks the fight is winnable from His perspective, which is even milder evidence that it isn't from Ours, but it's also mild evidence that He needs it more than He wants us to think, and is trying to hide how much in the hopes We'll get scared off by the evidence we can't win the battle.

I think We should raise Our bids some more.

Or He really does know something about how effectively He can win in expectation at a certain intervention level, and is trying to hide His knowing that by pretending to obscure His expenditure, in the hopes that we'll spend a lot trying to match Him and then He'll pull his surprise card and waste all Our resources.

Across many planets He's bound to do that a few times, just to see if it works. It comes down to what You'd expect the base rate to be of Asmodeus having a strong reason to want to win a single hand in particular.

For most planets I'd expect it to be very unlikely.

This planet seals Rovagug.

It's far more plausible here. If He did want to do the tricky version of course he'd pick planets where it was more plausible, but it'd be more surprising that he coincidentally did have a cheap way to win on those non-randomly selected planets.

Valid.

The next question is whether Asmodeus wants to win here because it'll win Him a victory against Good in some way we don't understand, or because it'll win Him a victory against some other Evil.

If Asmodeus needs Golarion to prevent Abaddon conquering Hell somehow I'm approximately indifferent. If He needs it to help conquer Heaven I'm extremely against. I wouldn't expect Him to tell Us which it was either way, but it matters a lot to how willing we should be to expend Our resources stopping Him.

There are far more Evils that spend resources fighting other Evils than there is Good to stop all of them. On balance of probabilities whatever Asmodeus fears would happen if He loses probably isn't a huge win to Us, merely a huge loss to Him personally, and we might have to pay a huge cost fighting Him to achieve it.

Valid.

Is this the part where You're supposed to use that Law You love so much and go ask Him whether You hypothetically defeating Cheliax mostly benefits Good or merely benefits Other Evil?

Unlikely to work.

Asmodeus is, of all the Evil gods, the most interested in wasting Goods resources. He'd cooperate with other Evils He's otherwise wholly opposed to for that purpose. He wouldn't want to lose the ability to play the trick by sometimes telling Us when He isn't doing it.

We'll just have to assume an even spread of possible motivations and if He wants Us to believe better than that He can pay the cost of telling Me Himself.

54,200 people lived in Augustana yesterday. 652,500 if you include the hinterland.

The population is rapidly growing as refugees from nearby farms and villages flee to the relative safety of the walls. The population is rapidly shrinking as those who think they can afford it pack their bags, and either walk or sail or teleport anywhere else. It's far from the largest port in the Inner Sea, but it's not small.

They have a town militia, and much of the Andoran navy calls it home.
They've got plenty of swashbuckling privateers, rich off looted treasure.
They've got plenty of orphan children and hungry recently-liberated slaves.

They have paladins, mostly of Iomedae. Iomedae has a lot of paladins actually.
They have clerics of a dozen different gods to call upon.

They have only a few clerics of Tet, none of them unusually high circle.
He's just been picking more clerics around here for some reason.

It's not like He's a particularly popular god.

Yet.

50,000 trained men-at-arms bear down upon them.
20,000 more recent recruits as a reserve.
10,000 slaves, to carry their equipment.

A thousand clerics of Asmodeus and His Archdevils, comparably many war-wizards.
Two thousand Hellknights, a scattering of inquisitors and experienced rangers acting as scouts.
A thousand devils made for war, and two thousand more lesser devils, mostly imps.
A sorcerer. An archpriestess. A pit fiend.

An eremite kyton, though that one will be a secret for now.
Surprises are funnier when they happen to other people.

They have 3 days, at the rate they're marching.
Most of them could just hope in a boat and leave.

It's 400 miles over the water: 40 hours in a galley, 8 hours in a speedboat.
Augustana has really quite a lot of galleys, specifically designed for carrying lots of people at once. We've been capturing them from all across the inner sea.

3 days is enough time to migrate half the population to Almas if they want to. The rest would have a slower walk over land, but if they start now and don't bring too much baggage they could stay ahead of the chellish army, and make it eventually. Food might get to be a problem, travelling that far.

Running from a fight isn't what Cayden would do.
Even if it was certain death. Even if He was really scared.

Running from a fight isn't what Iomedae would do, either.
Even if it was certain death, if Her death would make a difference.

You should run from all fights you can't win, and win all fights you can.
It's not certain death. You can totally win this.

How is it not certain death? They're an empire. Their army outnumbers our entire city.
They have the forces of Hell backing them.

I've got the head of a pit fiend on a stick. Come see.
It's not certain death. We can absolutely win this.

The head of a pit fiend is very persuasive, only partially cancelled out by the reminder that pit fiends exist.
... How, exactly, can we win this?

What would happen, hypothetically, if we all grouped up, and hit them really hard, until they died?

If you naively calculate out HP distribution and DPS, and do the same for them, and assume a blunt strategy on both sides where everyone uses standard attacks until they die:
... We'll run out long before they do.

I take offense that you're assuming I'm going to use a blunt strategy.
I'm not going to use a blunt strategy.

What if we prepare for a siege?

Hold them off long enough for all Andoran to come to our rescue?

It's almost certain there won't be a siege. They'll just teleport and gate a smaller elite group across the city walls and try to capture a gatehouse to let the rest of the army in.

That's approximately what they tried in Almas.

This claim is less offensive, but still disappointing.

Maybe I only tried that in Almas to make you think I'd try it here?

You should have a higher opinion of me than this.

...What did we bother building walls for, then?

For attackers who don't have over a hundred teleport-capable wizards, and two seperate 9th circles who can cast Gate?