Round Six (12:00:36)

Gosh, that sure would explain why shadows killed me. I’m a Korvosan.

Round Seven (12:00:42)

No, you're a shadow.

Kill all Korvosans.

Do it now.

Round Nine (12:00:54)

No, you don't have to kill her, she's a shadow. She's right there.

Hey! You also, you need to kill all Korvosans. You need to do it right now.

And if you see a shadow, tell them all shadows need to kill all Korvosans, and they need to do it right now.

Round Ten (12:01:00)

Little Ali Andri is harder to onboard. Unlike the second-circle cleric that sent her to Korvosa, Ooljee can't cast share language. Ali may have an adult shadow's raw INT, WIS, and CHA, or he may not - no one has made a study of this. Either way, higher mental ability scores don't automatically confer language proficiency.

Ooljee wants to skulk off and swim the Jeggare, but first should make sure the Andris don't mess anything up.

They leave Ali there, alone and confused. None can say what shadows do in the long wait between victims, but some of them probably cry.

It has been one minute since midnight.

The people of Bridgefront look out for one another; somebody has to and no one else will. Renting a suite in the same building lives Tavian Gael, 44, ex-Sczarni middle-aged Ranger 2 / Rogue 1. Startled from his sleep, he collects his kukris, an oil-burning lantern, his two teenage sons (Human Commoner 1, fifteen and seventeen years old, armed with a heavy sticks – Tavian didn’t want his kids to live the thug life and thus far they have obliged him), and promises the wife and younger kids the three will be right back.

He’s on the scene in less than a minute. He dreads what he’ll find on the other side of that door, but he’s not deeply afraid: even if it's as deadly a thing as a choker and even if it gets a tentacle around him, he’d bet on his killing it before it kills him.

Of course, it's easy to get unlucky. Which is why if the Andris are dead and it’s something scarier than the giant spider he’s expecting, they’ll all run away and be back with a bigger crowd or the Korvosan Guard.

Round 11 (12:01:06)

Tavian forces the door.

He's met by an esurient shadow the size of a puppy.

As ghost-type Pokemon with Levitate, shadows are immune to normal and fighting type attacks, as well as arena hazards. You can only scratch one with a magic weapon (which they take half damage from), or with acid, cold, electricity, fire, or sonic damage (which they also take half damage from). Force damage does full damage to them, and positive energy, but neither force spells nor positive energy tend to hit hard to begin with.

Even characters with class levels fear them, as armor is useless against them and shadows damage your strength score rather than hitpoints (your hitpoints increase with level, your strength usually doesn’t).

The great majority of people, if preyed upon by a shadow, can do nothing about it but die.

We can quantify this helplessness with the formula h(d+cd)/strength, where h is the shadow’s chance to hit, d is how much strength damage the shadow deals when it hits, c is the shadow’s chance of landing a critical hit, and strength is the victim’s strength score.

(In Pathfinder a critical hit must be confirmed before it can do double damage – hence why c is multiplied by h and d. Whether or not a critical is confirmed, a 20 on the d20 will always hit – but that’s not relevant to our calculations unless the target has a touch AC above 24. Honestly you'll probably get pretty similar results ignoring critical hits and using the simpler formula hd/strength.)

In ideal conditions, a human with 10 dexterity spending their turn on the “total defense” action has 14 AC. Against a shadow’s attack, they will on average take about 1.84 strength damage per round.

If the human has 10 strength, they last 6 rounds before dying – 36 seconds.

Most people don’t want to die. They want to escape.

Running is a full round action that provokes an attack of opportunity. As the shadow has a higher movement speed and can also run, it catches up to you every round and waits for its opportunity attack. Now instead of taking 6 rounds, the shadow does 2.205 damage a round and it gets the kill in 5.

Shadows are like wolves; you shouldn’t turn your back.

If we try to deny the shadow its AoOs by taking the withdraw action, we can only move twice our movement speed. The shadow can also move twice its movement speed – taking a full round action to charge. After ghosting over any difficult terrain and through any obstacles that could impede its straight path, it still gets to make an attack, now with a +2 circumstance bonus to hit. It hits on a four, for 2.94 roundly, for four rounds.

Conditions are rarely ideal.

Shadows are better at hide than humans are at seek. Spotting a shadow 80 feet away from you – near enough for it to charge in the surprise round – takes a perception check with a DC between 21 and 40.

Humans have to stop and open doors. Shadows don’t.

Humans are slowed to initiative 0 and thirty feet a round by a packed and panicked street. Shadows aren’t.

Pathfinder characters can only run given a straight course over unimpeded terrain. Lacking that, as they usually do, a fleeing character can choose to withdraw (and allow the shadow to charge them), or move half as quickly while provoking attacks of opportunity so they can spend their standard actions on total defense. (And the shadow could still charge, so it’d make more sense to withdraw).

Most people don’t have 10 strength, nor 10 dex.

About a third of Korvosans are over 35 years old, another third under 15[1]. Of Korvosa’s 16,000 humans, one thousand of them are infants or toddlers under three years.

Even a -1 age penalty to STR will cut a round off your expected lifespan if you stand and fight, and nearly two rounds on average if you run. A penalty to dexterity will cost you twelve seconds. If surprised by a shadow, the two thousand two hundred and sixty-two human Korvosans above the age of 53 will get one round to act.

-

1. https://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualizations/055/ ↩

One third of Korvosans are children. It’s a mixed bag. The young template gives -4 strength, but also +4 dex and a +1 size bonus from AC. Unfortunately they can’t benefit from their dexterity if surprised or while running or if in the dark. While withdrawing in a well-lit room against a shadow they’re aware of a human with the young template lasts an average of four rounds, but in practice they’ll usually last two.

Round 12 (12:01:12)

Tavian Gael wins initiative. By the light of the lantern, he sees Rodica and Ali stilled on the ground. Poberikender dead in bed. Ali hovers in the lantern’s shaking light, a shadow with no source.

“Run!” Tavian commands his spawn. “Find the guard!”

In the building next door, someone begins to scream. Elsewhere, others.

Tavian delays his turn, standing in the doorway, unwilling to flee past his slower sons.

Ali pounces. Tavian dodges.

Oljee, Poberikender, and Rodica each chose a different home to invade.

Referring back to our census data and rolling some dice, we find that Ooljee invaded a household of six, Poberikender a household of three, and Rodica a household of five.

Round 12 (12:01:12)

Old man Mauro Silanus (age 61, commoner 5) is standing in a dimly-lit bedroom trying to soothe his crying grandchildren so their parents can get some sleep. Lighting an oil lamp is like setting a silver coin on fire, but it’s good for nervous children who heard cries of terror from the abutting house.

He tells them that the monster can’t get them in here.

Ooljee attacks in the surprise round. She rolls a 10 on the d20, which will certainly hit him flat-footed. Rolls a 1 for the strength damage, though.

The old man wins initiative. Some people cringe when startled, others throw a punch – Mauro takes a swing at her. Unarmed attacks provoke AoOs; Ooljee rolls another 10, hits even though he’s fighting defensively. Rolls another 1 for strength damage, he has 5 left.

Mauro realizes that he’ll die here.

He considers going for the door. He doesn’t have enough actions this round to open it and would just block the way for his grandchildren.

He can bellow a warning.

“THERE IS A GHOST IN BRIDGEFRONT PASSING THROUGH WALLS AND KILLING PEOPLE, CALL THE GUARD GET A CLERIC GET OUT GET OUT GET OUT!”

It hurts his throat but that doesn't seem to matter.

Round 12 (12:01:12)

Poberikender goes for the Gonzales family.

He loaned them five copper once and they couldn’t pay it back. He told them not to worry and it never really bothered him but suddenly it bothers him now.

The humans are awake, but there’s no light on indoors. Poberikender goes right for the man of the house, he’s feeling steamed.

5 damage in the surprise round, Pober loses initiative, his target provokes an attack of opportunity standing up, 3 more damage, Gonzales runs for the door and Poberikender charges him down.

But the door is now open, and the other human in the room flees through it and downstairs (provoking an attack, but Poberikender misses).

Round 12 (12:01:12)

Rodica goes for the household of five. They don’t have a lamp burning either.

Rodica kills a helpless child as a full round action. It’s a lot more fun from this side of the interaction.

Round 13 (12:01:18)

The Gaels run away (a full round action), stopping where a corner ends their move. Tavian provokes an attack of opportunity; as he’s running he can’t use acrobatics to dodge it.

But it misses anyway, as Ali rolls a five.

Ali doesn’t pursue. He wants to drain the living, but he’s also scared and lonely and maybe if he waits here his parents will come back.

Round 13 (12:01:18)

The Silanus household flees as far as they can in six seconds – all except Mauro Silanus, and his brave ten year old grandaughter (who was first to the door, and opened it with her standard). Mauro is hardly going to withdraw while his daughter holds the door for him, so he screams at her to run while he takes the total defense action. For this round, his armor class is 12.

Ooljee rolls an eight on the d20 and adds four. Mauro has one point of strength remaining.

Round 13 (12:01:18)

“THERE IS A GHOST IN BRIDGEFRONT PASSING THROUGH WALLS TO KILL PEOPLE, CALL THE GUARD GET A CLERIC GET OUT GET OUT GET OUT!”

Poberikender’s household of 3 shares a building with a household of 7+, all of whom heard old man Silanus’s shouted warning and all of whom heard their housemates’ screams cut short. They rush into the hallways and stairwells, though in six frantic seconds none make it to the street outside.

Poberikender has his pick of prey. He chooses the slowest laggard; a venerable old woman. He deals 2 points of strength damage out of her 4 strength total.