it's obvious if you understand decision theory
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"...I don't know for sure because I erased my memories of the decision but I think it was to get Asmodia and Peranza out of being eternally tortured, purchase the souls of everyone else on Project Lawful so I could protect them too, get fifteen Wishes and an artifact headband so I could make progress on ensuring you'd be better off for knowing me and on coming up with a plan to save the world, and maaaaybe to compact with Asmodeus in a way that'll make it easier to overthrow Him or maybe that part was all Cayden's plan not mine."

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"What happened to Asmodia and Peranza?  Priority question, were they being temporarily tortured for long enough that this would possibly damage anybody who wasn't you or Pilar?"

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"Well at the time I thought they were but I purchased them having never been tortured and having been completely fine all along so, in fact, they were at no point tortured and were fine all along. Peranza was executed for betraying the Project. Asmodia we think killed herself."

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"I did not know you could do that, in fact.  Did not know that was an option.  Thank you.  That is - I hadn't believed, before, that they were dead and being tortured, but - thank you, I am a lot less - feeling what I was feeling - about the soul-sale thing."

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"I, uh, would speak to this with more confidence if I'd rederived all my thinking, which I haven't yet, but it - wasn't about not being yours, I wanted that, it was about - people who'd trusted you, trusted Civilization - that's - what Peranza did, she decided she was with Civilization - warned Iomedae about the Project - and I only had, the one thing, to buy them with, and I am not really worried about my eternity because we need to overthrow Asmodeus anyway and we can't exactly need to overthrow Asmodeus harder. 

Right?"

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"Oh, if Peranza and Asmodia had been, effectively destroyed, it would, in fact, be possible for Asmodeus to be in more trouble than He currently is."

"What, according to you, do you think is going on, right now?"

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"I have two big glaring holes in my understanding of what's going on and I suspect I know enough to figure them out but I haven't had time. - I don't think when I'm being mindread. It's very convenient. Uh. I think that you're going to try to overthrow Asmodeus and by default He'll release Rovagug and the planet will probably get destroyed. I think that Nethys knows this and tipped off Cayden Cailean and maybe other gods, for some reason, and that they've been angling for conditions to exist under which you and Asmodeus can compromise and not fight, and those conditions might involve me and maybe also Pilar ascending. I have a compact with Asmodeus and a cult which might be useful for ascending and I think I could do it in ten years, maybe five if we have this fancy time-dilated demiplane full time. Pilar's trying to eat Cayden Cailean.

The glaring holes are: why are only Nethys and Cayden in on this and not all of Good and most of Neutral, and why have Cheliax and Osirion neither made war nor peace, what are they waiting for. - I can explain, if you want, what those glaring holes are entangled with, how I got to them as the most important missing pieces -"

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"Meritxell used Alter Self and Disguise Self to shift to a number of pretty women, for me.  Merrin, some other dath ilani celebrities, Ranthal, who I drew with Silent Image.  Also some women in Golarion whose looks I liked, but didn't want to complicate my life by trying to date, right then.  Jacint Subirachs, Willa Shilira, Abrogail Thrune."

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...sure, figures. She remembers thinking at the time it was impressive Meritxell had the nerve to impersonate Abrogail, even Carissa would've asked Abrogail before doing that and Meritxell's not exactly someone who can just write the Queen for permission - 

 

 

 

 

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Oh. 

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Who gains by having Keltham have sex with someone Alter Selfed to look like Abrogail or a bunch of other people? What do they gain?

 

 

The idiots - Abrogail, it must've been Abrogail, no one else would've conceived of and done it without Carissa's approval - decided to get themselves some Keltham-descended children secretly. To - use as leverage against him? No, they must've known that wouldn't work - why, then, why make the case where they lose so much worse than it needed to be -

" - you could probably get Cheliax to hand them all over, if you point out your alternative is blowing the country up."

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"I'm mostly guessing it's just Abrogail, but if they know I know, they hide her outside the country and then I have no further reason to blow up the country.  Or Egorian, I wouldn't glass all of Cheliax if glassing Egorian was enough."

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"...do you want me to kill her?"

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"I would not have guessed that was something you could do."

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"I mean, it wouldn't be trivial, but I bet I can. She wouldn't even have to stay dead, that's the really hard part of assassinating someone."

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"The more concerning possibility is that it's not just the one kid."

"I am figuring that they probably did not extract semen directly from my epididymis, or steal it after Meritxell performed oral sex, and use that to impregnate a lot of other women until I had 144 kids.  If that modality worked for them, it would have been foolish of Abrogail to risk disguising herself as Meritxell disguised as Abrogail, which was a huge tip-off.  Even though I had that thought while I was with Isidre, in the Palace, with a lot of eighth-circle casters potentially around.  But I have it flagged as an instance of - trying to guess the Conspiracy's competence level, at a consistent level, and I've had bad results from that in the past."

"You know anything relevant to the possibility-set of no offspring awaiting ensoulment, one offspring by Abrogail, multiple offspring, many offspring?"

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" - Isidre was just Abrogail in disguise. Otherwise I don't know anything. They didn't tell me - I'd have told them not to -"

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"Wow, that must have been hilarious for everybody who wasn't me."

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"And the Isidre impersonator in the room when you met Abrogail, I think they executed her afterwards. And Abrogail herself, who had to smile at you while you criticized her to her face and then gracefully lose to you about me, I think she didn't like that much. ...and me, I took a punishment in the middle of all that for thinking insubordinate things about Abrogail and was a little out of it. ...Aspexia was having fun, I guess."

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"Oh, so the etiquette lessons would've been Aspexia.  I wondered about that, afterwards."

"Don't take this the wrong way, but your Conspiracy was kind of shit and I'm ashamed that it worked on me literally at all."

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"Cheliax wasn't, actually, good at lying to people who were allowed to think about what was true. Probably because it doesn't have any."

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"I'll have to think about it again once I'm boosting Intelligence and Wisdom, but preliminarily I'd say that takes probability of multiple kids from 40% to 30% and the probability of lots of kids from 8% to 20%."

"I don't... actually want, to glass Cheliax, or kill anyone at all, really, but I don't see a way out of this before the given time deadlines that doesn't involve killing a lot of people.  I'm sort of, sad about that.  Haven't actually killed anybody on purpose, up until now, despite all the people dying and going to Hell around me, whose names I never knew."

"What's your alternative?"

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"....the time deadline is a problem. I don't see how I can do my plan before the time deadline. If we had - a bit more time - 

I have fifteen Wishes granted by a devil out of Hell. I figured we'd - make ourselves smarter, see more options. I have broad outlines for kinds of things it'd be useful to do, like, close the Worldwound, I bet that's possible if you're smart enough and have approximately unlimited resources and it's the kind of thing that gets people believing you're on a path to ascension but it's not going to happen fast enough, I also bet we can get Dispater to help us but we'd have to read over that confidentiality agreement incredibly carefully and I don't see how to do it in such little time - 

How low would the probability have to be, that you have kids in Cheliax, for you to not want to destroy Cheliax, and if we conquered Cheliax and it was better would that fix it?"

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