It's well past the worst depths of winter, even here on the north edge of the Worldwound- the temperature ekes its way above freezing occasionally, the days are only short and not miserably short, last night's snowstorm wasn't quite a blizzard. It is, nonetheless, fairly surprising when the patrol on their way to Fort #11 spots three figures in the distance trudging towards them from the north.
"And it's harder to reach than when starting in Avistan, but..." Shrug. Dish dish dish. "I suppose I'll meet him if I stay long enough, I expect he'll have some explanation."
"Do you suppose a Chosen of Abadar would be turned from his paperwork solely due to the Worldwound closing and a- the Tarrasque returning?" Sidelong impish smile dish dish. "Likely they'll have to redo the math, I suppose."
"I don't understand how anything Boian does is actually worth money to anyone so how should I know if they'd go on paying for it with the Wound closed?" shrugs Txell.
"Hm, as you say I know not who's paying for the insurance... I might guess it would be the government, or that it would be some broader treaty, um, grouping?" She probably ought to actually read the treaty at some point, if she's sticking around here. "If you would like I can explain the principle, 'twould be as well to have some use of all those sermons."
Nod.
"Well: suppose one is a merchant with more goods than the Sothis market will bear- uh, silk, I suppose. One might ship it to Thuvia to sell there for a handsome profit- for the minimal example we imagine Thuvia to have no silk of its own- but one in six ships is lost. I don't know the actual numbers, I solely chose that to make them tidy. One might say, 'I cannot afford that risk, one chance in six of my family going hungry is not worth five in six of an especially good year', and sell the silk in Sothis instead for half what it would have fetched in Thuvia, because everyone in Sothis already has all the silk they need. And then the merchant has less money and Thuvia has less silk, and this is unpleasing to Abadar."
Dish dish dishity dish. Does Txell look bored?
"So instead, six merchants might, um, group together, and pledge to pool their profits with anyone whose ship sinks. Then each one has a certainty of five parts in six as much profit as they might have made, instead of one chance in six of ruin and five in six of the full amount. Following so far?" Dish dish dish dish.
Txell's following along and does not look bored, though whether that means she's not bored is an open question. "Yeah, I can see that."
"So then, we suppose that one of the captains likes taunting krakens, and loses one ship in three, and another is very skilled and solely loses one in twelve. Uh, and I suppose the captains are also immortal, because if not a kraken should have eaten the bad captain by now. Perhaps they're shipbuilders making different types of ships... um." Dish dish dish.
"Captains or shipbuilders, regardless. If all the merchants know which captain is which, they may say at the start of a voyage, 'it doesn't divide the risk equally if you send your cargo with the bad captain and I with the good captain, I should be paying you four times in twelve voyages and you paying me only once'. So they ask the merchant with the bad captain to pay more money into the, um, the group, and the one with the good captain they permit to pay less."
"Yes! Or who funds the fort makes money, but I expect they give him some of it because they wish him to continue."
"That explains why he's forever on our case about whatever the last thing Boian told him to do was."
"Yes, precisely. It gets more complex, that's solely the feast-day story, I expect Boian- or who funds him, really- has years of practice at telling what things are signs of- kraken taunting." Small smile dish dish.
"I don't know- while the Wound was open everyone benefited from the world not being full of infinite demons in the future but just Mendev and Lastwall and, um, that country which was then here benefited now. The Church is terribly pleased about writing the treaty to fix that. Now that it's just finite demons... I don't know." Troubled sigh. "It might be that it's Mendev and Lastwall again."
"They say Cheliax wanted to be here so that nobody'd want to attack us and have us pull forces home from the Wound. Didn't stop the new Queen, though."
"I heard that as well, even in Sothis. And so as to give the forces more practice." Although come to think of it, the other thing people go to the Wound for is grinding Good, so it's kind of surprising Cheliax willingly puts its army there when it's trying so hard for Evil. "I suppose I know little about her, she might not care for Mendev."
Khalida bursts into giggles, and has to focus on not dropping Prestidigitation for a moment. "I concede, some Mendevians?"
"Well, such it is most everywhere, yes? Some know their way and prosper, can at least judge what risks are worth it, and some... don't, and are left behind."
Deep breath, assemble the sentence, dish dish dish, sidelong glance. "I'm- very far from home, and expected not to come here nor to remain. I should consider myself in your debt were you to have... guidance for avoiding krakens."