Listeners in Rahadoum have been telling me that Rahadoum has now struck out to retake its northernmost territories from Cheliax. Under ordinary circumstances, Cheliax would probably be able to beat back the Rahadoumi - but right now, they can't afford to send any help south, and I'm not even sure they can afford for the navy and the forces stationed around Corentyn to be tied up dealing with this.
Fuck. No more excuses. The Second Fleet, smaller than Corentyn's but meaningful, is in Kintargo. There have been storms keeping them in port, but only intermittently. They'll get out and come to the relief of the First Fleet, or at least raid the Rahadoumi coast.
But not if Kintargo rebels before they can get the orders and take ship. The sails could burn in the harbor and the marines and sailors be forced to defend their barracks.
And the strongest army which could readily come to the defense of Crown forces in Ravounel is dead. (She'd negotiated trade concessions with the Archduke in his capacity as Count of Kantaria. He wasn't an evil* man like most of the nobility. Likely damned to Hell, yes, but not from inclination or nature, just by circumstances pushing him that way. Most Menadorians she's met were the same.)
For Cheliax, this is probably the right time to set off a rebellion. It would be painful to the Crown even if it's crushed, right now.
But... it would probably still be crushed.
*Jilia Bainilus uses Evil/evil and Good/good as very distinct concepts in her head. Many people she considers good who would be sorted Evil if they died today, but bend their instincts toward being kinder, more merciful, and otherwise Good-inclined when they get the chance. She doesn't believe most people in Kintargo are Good - that's obviously false - but she does believe most, or at least a large minority, are good people.