In an ordinary Midwestern suburb is an ordinary two-bedroom house containing an ordinary couple. One of them has a plate of chicken and green beans and the other is kneeling beside him with his hands tied behind his back, opening his mouth to receive a green bean.
There's enough time before the predictable crash for the passengers to, briefly, talk and try to come up with some ridiculous way to survive. They're passing over a rocky zone like a shattered mountain range; flat spots for a landing approximately don't exist. The area isn't cold enough for their brains to stay cold and be retrieved, even if they had some way to protect just their own heads from the impact. Five people are frantically working to tie together enough clothing to make an ad-hoc parachute for somebody's four-year-old. It's not going to work, but it's a dignified way to die.
The best Thellim can do is not distract them while they work. Being still and quiet has never been an important part of her self-image before this, but rapid adaptation to altered circumstances is a virtue.
She successfully keeps herself still and quiet up until the plane loses enough speed to start diving. She only starts screaming after enough other people are screaming that her screaming won't make any important marginal difference.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -
The people whose home she has appeared in look very confused. They do not seem to know what "tsi-imbi" is supposed to mean.
The one in the chair reaches down and tugs a dangling end of the restraint and it comes untied and the one on the floor catches it before it falls. Puts it in his pocket. Asks her something in Not Baseline.
It won't necessarily occur to Thellim yet that anybody speaks more than one language. This looks like an equiv-tech world with artificial nice things, it no doubt speaks a carefully optimized artificial language, and universality is among the most desirable properties of such.
"Language difficulty," she repeats. "This is a complicated sentence which demonstrates that I in fact speak a completely different language from anything you've ever heard of, implying that when I appeared I did so from very far away. You can deduce that, right?"
What a nice higher-tech world she has found herself in. Might have been nice to find herself in one that spoke Baseline, but maybe Baseline is just such a poorly constructed language that optimizing her experience from here on out will be helped by her learning a new language from scratch. That's about the most optimistic spin Thellim can manage to put on current events.
She is, of course, consciously aware that this version of the story was generated by putting a maximally optimistic spin on things.
This... really was not how she was expecting her day to go, and it does not obviously conform to any of the things she thought was true about reality, or for that matter, true about stories.
Thellim waits. Crossing language gaps is a matter for specialists, which she is not, and these two people don't seem to be that either.
"Thellim. Thel-lim. Thellim. If you have higher-tech mathematics and software that are trying to learn my language and can do that just from hearing me talk for a while, I can start babbling as best I can. How do I convey that, though... I don't want to start babbling at you if that doesn't help at all..."
The locals murmur to each other a little more, shaking their heads occasionally.
A snatch of music starts playing from the phone. Jackson pokes it a few more times; the music stops. He says something to Brian. Brian says something back. Jackson points the rectangle at Thellim, and it flashes brightly.
Was that a cue to talk to somebody who's now watching? Well, won't hurt if she makes a mistake about that. She repeats the gesture, pointing at herself. "Thellim!" Long pause. "Language difficulty! Tsi-imbi! I'm from dath ilan! As you can see, I speak an unknown complicated syntactical language with at least some repeated words, if I go on talking long enough I ought to at least repeat a preposition or something, so unless your first theory is that somebody devised a whole new language and learned fluency in it as a prank, I probably come from another world! Though I'd totally understand if you thought pranks were a higher prior probability than that. I hope your world gets lots of people like me and that you do not start out with an astronomically high prior that everyone in this house is insane!"
Should she do tsi-imbi? No there is actually no point in going 'tsi-imbi' solely through an apparent telepathic connection it is rather a self-undermining sort of strategy. [I'm Thellim. I was in a crashing plane. Now I'm here in what appears to be an entirely different world; mine had less advanced phones, and nobody who could speak inside your mind. I hope you already have substantial experience with that kind of thing happening. But if not, I can fluently speak, read, write, and translate a language that doesn't exist, I've memorized some poetry and famous speeches in that language, I'm wearing manufactured clothing with labels that don't correspond to any local manufacturers, and, probably hardest of all to fake, I'd be surprised and interested if my genetic markers bore any resemblance whatsoever to any local subpopulation.]
[I'll be moderately impressed if your world is covering all of its bases so well that a randomly sampled average person from another, moderately lower-tech world knows nothing very valuable or useful to your world. But I suppose most valuable knowledge of that kind is valuable whether or not the person is telling the truth about how they got it? It is nice not to be thought insane, though, especially when one is not insane.]
[We do. So far as I can tell by looking, people here look like the same species I am. Ah... on my world, if somebody verifiably materialized from elsewhere, versus just saying they'd materialized from elsewhere, there would be very different responses involving, respectively, the largest university-inquisition in the history of time with an uncapped budget, or alternatively, psychiatric intervention?]
[If you want to be admitted to a psychiatric hospital staffed by people who are mostly monolingual speakers of English be my guest but it's not a popular option even for native speakers and I'm not planning to insist as long as you do not appear to be a danger to yourself or others. I am sure some kind of academic would be interested in you but I do not have one in my pocket.]
Thellim is now very confused.
[Things here are very different than they are on my world. Do you not have... research institutions? Collections of specialists, who are supported by venture capitalists trying to capture prizes, which prizes are funded by most of the world's public to produce public goods? And, I mean, it wouldn't be the first thought to cross my own mind, but do you not have venture capitalists who would fly out by the thousands to meet somebody from another world?]
[We have research institutions but you seem to have a remarkably specific preconception of how they should work considering the other-planet thing. I don't have a venture capitalist in my pocket either. Do you want me to get on Twitter and post "hey, somebody I knew in school had somebody who claims she's from another planet land in their kitchen"? Because that will be taken as an experimental fiction project.]
[Jackson said Brian doesn't mind if you stay in their spare room for tonight, and I can swing you plane tickets for tomorrow to where I am - uh, if you think you can take plane-navigating instructions reasonably well - and that will make it easier to do things like hire a lie detector and, uh, try to introduce you to venture capitalists if that's what you're into.]
There is a dreamlike, unreal quality to the way that Thellim's arrival here is (1) supposedly totally unprecedented (2) being treated with about the same urgency and interest as the observation of a new turtle species. Sure, they'll give her a plane ticket to fly out, rather than rushing every possible form of scientific instrumentation to where she is in case there was any kind of lingering detectable anomalous radiation. Okay. Fine. She'll roll with the dream. At least now she knows this isn't fiction because fiction has to be believable.
[I have no problem staying in a spare room. I can't navigate a plane but I can write down syllabic phrases in my own language to repeat at key points for purposes of getting on a plane. Or, I suppose, Jackson or Brian could write down flashcards for me to show people, so I don't have to make it obvious that I don't know your planetary language. I'm sorry if this is impolite or in some way violates cultural conventions of which I have no inkling, but may I inquire what person has taken charge of this event, and for some precis of their role in the greater society and its factions?] Maybe she got routed to the Chief Crazy Person In Charge Of Crazy People.
(Only after the braintalk does Thellim think to wonder if she's permanently traumatized about planes now. She probably shouldn't be, right? She'll reconsider that if the next plane crashes but, for now, things will definitely be more convenient if she's not traumatized by planes.)
[...there is not a whole big to-do about your arrival. The people who know it happened are Jackson, Brian, and me, because if you'd hung around dithering for another thirty minutes Jackson would have tried emailing me and I'm a precog. I work for a boring private psionics corporation but in my individual capacity think I am better equipped to deal with you, whatever your deal is, than Jackson and his dom are. You could be, like, a weird eclipse accident, if some poorly controlled diabetic kid kicked you a month into the future after somebody else scrambled your brain a little, but even if I were positive you were from another planet there is not a Department Of People Being From Other Planets to submit a form to.]
Jackson opens a door and gestures into it. It is a spare room.
[On the eclipse closest to your twelfth birthd-
- if you are really from another planet, then actually no matter how old you are you need to act like that the next eclipse might be your eclipse. We don't know how that works because people from other planets are not a routine occurrence. Protocol is that for the two entire days leading up to a total lunar eclipse you DO NOT EAT ANYTHING with ANY calories. After the eclipse if you feel normal you can resume eating, if you feel like you can suddenly do magic you have to get in touch with somebody who can either lock you down or get you into a virtual reality setup to confuse your magic and absolutely should not eat until one of those things has happened, capisce?]
Thellim obediently enters the spare room.
[Eat zero things for two days before a total lunar eclipse, check. When might the next one of those be?] Thellim should feel more alarmed about this, Brain Voice sounds very driven about it. She will pretend she is more alarmed, until she starts believing in it more, and fake making the correct decisions so she can carry them out.
[The next one is this June on the fifteenth. That's in the summer, it's winter now, January 24.
Anyway, on the total lunar eclipse closest to your twelfth birthday you have a small chance of getting one of two categories of magic; there's mages, and there's psions. Psions do things with mental effects - illusion, precognition, talking in your head like I'm doing, etcetera - we can work on computers too nowadays - and mages do things with physical effects - flying, healing, setting things on fire and whatnot. We start out with no control whatsoever over it and every eclipse precogs like me spend all night cleaning up after kids who sneak a piece of leftover Halloween candy or whose birthdays are subject to clerical errors or who can't fast for medical reasons because otherwise there would be lots of enormous disasters all over the place in the real timeline. Once an eclipsed has control it's safe for us to eat food outside of virtuality but we don't know how to do anything on purpose till we teach ourselves and it resists systematic instruction, so we all know whatever powers in our set appeal to us. Questions?]
She's in a world that can convert cheesecake to computation, well, fine, she will deal with that because ADAPTATION IS A VIRTUE.
[I suppose my next question is what happens to me. If there are, for reasons I don't understand, a bizarre absence of swarming funders desperately throwing money at this event, then I suppose I hope there exists a reasonably-priced psion who can give me this world's language so I can poke around your Planetary Network figuring out which pieces of knowledge I have are liable to be worth the most money. We will, I suppose, not bother with having lie-detectors verify the truth of my story and announcing it to your world, because nobody except you would really care, or pay money to talk with me about my own world's institutions and innovations and history, I GUESS?? At some point in the summer I will very carefully not eat anything for two days - or three days, if that adds safety margin surrounding my unknown circumstances? I'm not twelve and am happy to do three days - and then I either end up with magic, or continue doing whatever I was doing.]
[I don't actually know if there's anyone who works as an English installer but I can look it up. Though that's not the world's language, we have kind of a lot of languages. Two days has some safety margin built in as long as you really eat zero calories during that time, otherwise the advice would also include limits on how many calories you can have the day before.]
[I'm in fact slightly concerned because that doesn't match my model of how anything on my world works metabolically - there could still be food in my intestines and my body's caloric reserves would release sustained triglycerides and later ketones into my bloodstream over time - but if the issue doesn't arise until summer there'll be time for me to check for metabolic differences; if your world's metabolic setup looks the same as mine, I'll chalk it up to 'magical rules rather than actual caloric dependency'. Actually... does your civilization understand why the rules are that way, or is it just empirically observing the 2-day limit on food? Because it's also never observed somebody go through their first eclipse at an age much higher than 12. I mean, maybe this isn't the most urgent question, but it sounds like something you or your world worries a lot about, and the thought does come to mind.]
Yeah, she'll be doing some metabolic research and then fasting for a substantially longer period than two days. Unless this whole process is better-understood, or the consequences less drastic, than Brain-Voice makes it sound.
[Again, forgive me if it's rude to ask, but may I ask what form of payment or reciprocation you may be expecting for all the help that you have given me, including with things like plane tickets and perhaps 'English' installers?]
That's... not really all that reassuring a thing to say in reply, but different world, different customs; Thellim won't press. [Until I've learned English, I'm not really sure how much resource there is that I can make use of, besides food and shelter and help learning the language - I imagine it being hard to do without somebody who already knows both languages, I'm past the window for rapid language acquisition in childhood - and while I'd imagine that your brain-voice skill isn't unique, it seems like, if that skill exists, there might be somebody who can get English into me with less labor than doing a lot of braintalk. I suppose, while I can't read anything or use the planetary network or talk to anybody besides you and people with similar skills, it would be nice to have access to recorded music from your musical genres-that-are-recorded-and-replayed-in-planetwide-competition. Actually, if that's something that Brian or Jackson can supply, it will enable me to be less horribly bored once I run out of energy to think and make notes to myself. Oh, it would also be nice if they have paper and a pen, if your society hasn't advanced beyond that. And if your society's shower controls are much more complicated than my society's shower controls, help understanding the controls in this house might be appreciated before this brain-call ends? But if it's just four knobs that you turn, I can probably figure those out.]
[I have never visited Jackson's house so I don't know how complicated his shower is but it's probably not more than four knobs that you turn or pull or something. Uh, braintalk is a much, much easier skill than implanting languages in somebody's brain; you'd still pay a premium on it being psion labor at all, but you could hire somebody who's like fifteen to do it in conjunction with language tutoring, as opposed to somebody who is thirty and has worked a long time on their language installation skill and is the only person in the country who can do it, or something - I still haven't found one, that's just my guess at how rare it probably is. I assume your hosts have music and I can ask them to put some on but we do not have planetwide competitions. We have a continental competition but I don't think the stuff from Eurovision is actually notably better or more accessible or anything than random pop. Jackson says pen and paper and old iPod are on their way.]
There is a knock at her door.
Thellim accepts pen and paper and presumable hightech computing device 'old iPod'. [I shall of course be grateful for assistance in learning English the hard way, if the easy way is above my budget and I can't get loans and haven't earned early revenue. On my world some forms of music are fine for trained professionals to play on the radio, record, or sell; others are reserved for ordinary people who'd just like to play for their friends or at gatherings. I didn't want to presume on somebody to play me live music, and the first kind is of much higher quality, so I asked for the first kind. What do I do with the 'old iPod'?]
Well, gosh... that is some... music she hasn't heard before.
[Yes, I've been picking up that your world has much less in the way of globally supported institutions and useful coordinated practices than mine, despite the higher tech level. Don't worry, I won't try to fix it until I understand why things got to be that way in the first place, and what it has to do with the Eclipse affair - that being the most obvious background element that differs between your world and mine.]
[Music can be nice to listen to. When you listen to it on a radio or recording just for the sound and music itself, you'd naturally want to buy it from the greatest professionals in the entire world, people who spend years practicing and then compete to produce the best songs and the best versions of songs. Music can also be nice to play among your friends. How nice it is to play among your friends depends on how much they appreciate it - really appreciate it, not just pretend to appreciate it to be polite. There's a potential collision where you can imagine somebody having already heard all the topnotch professionals having played incredibly good versions of the songs your friends are trying to play much more poorly. So there's a dividing line between complicated music that's unrealistic to try without an orchestra or a recording studio, which is what the professionals play; versus the music that one or four people can realistically successfully play together, which is then avoided by professionals and recording studios. If professionals did record a really polished version of amateur-music, a radio station wouldn't play it; and if a radio station did play it, their customers would drop their sponsorships and never listen again. I could say that the radio station wouldn't do it for fear of losing customers, and that would be partially true, but also the radio station is part of Civilization and wouldn't wantonly destroy a coordinated public good because they're good people.]
[You wouldn't necessarily notice if you didn't have a base state to compare it to! I don't blame you for being suspicious of a proposal to reduce professional competition over anything, especially if you've never worked through the economiclogic of any similar proposals before. Every kid where I'm from grows up hearing a story about light-bulb manufacturers who want to avoid competition from the Sun, and come up with all kinds of clever arguments for why the Sun should be shut off so they won't have to face the competition. The key difference is that when you want light, it doesn't matter as much who you get it from - maybe there's a corner light-bulb seller with whom you have a warm relationship, but that relationship isn't intrinsic to the lightbulb or the light it sheds. So sometimes you need to accept that the current relationships of that kind will be broken, and different ones will form somewhere else, because that's how Civilization moves forward. But some friends getting together to play giant-kazoos are not about obtaining the good efficiently, they're about obtaining it together; and the way that people usually aren't paid for that, is one cue among several that maybe the pressures of competition should give it a rest. We've made a conscious decision not to be pushed out to the extremes of commercial efficiency everywhere. It's the same reason why we've decided not to manufacture superstimulus-foods at scale and offer elaborate fried-cookie-cake-ice-cream in every corner shop. You don't want to feed people as much of it as possible as cheaply as possible; you want it to be something that the grandmother-faction on your block makes a batch of every few days and gives away for free. I'm sure Civilization could get along without any one of those customs, but it would be a colder darker place without any of them. I don't know now, of course, because it's part of the causally-screened-off past; but I expect that the very first person who ever invented Economics probably also started thinking about how to not turn their society into a hyper-efficient economical dystopia - how to preserve some warmth in the face of the global-scale competitive pressures their theory implied.]
[Oh, uh, I probably shouldn't have said that. Infohazard stuff. Maybe your version of Civilization never ran into an analogous infohazard but I should talk about that with a Keeper of Harmful Truths.] [But on a more cheerful note, I just mean the faction of Civilization composed of grandmothers who, are... like... ordinary grandmothers forming an ordinary faction so they can invest some of their philanthropy and voting power in grandmotherly interests? How does your society make sure that nobody is just ignoring the interests of grandmothers?]
[Figures. I'll ask later about how one could reasonably have all grandmothers voting directly, I mean, they can't reasonably be expected to all keep track of all the grandmother-related issues facing Civilization. How bad does it actually get with nobody keeping any infohazards under control? I'm not asking you to tell me about the infohazards, obviously, I want to know what's liable to happen to me if I go onto your Planetary Network with nobody... filtering for me? Do you have professionals that do that? It sounds way more expensive but your society obviously lacks the coordination to just keep them off the Network.]
[It's called the Internet and people just, uh, go on it and look for what they want, unless they want to be one of those weird computer illiterate old people who phone a librarian every time they want to know the definition of a word or something. You might run into porn by accident but not, like, a Langford basilisk, we don't have those.]
[I... had the impression from the way our society is structured and how much effort we put into that type of thing that worse things ought to happen if there's no infohazard control. Maybe your society generates less of them or maybe it's more of a fat-tailed-risk] or maybe this whole world is a dream or fiction or something else that doesn't have to hang together perfectly the same way as physics. ['Porn' is... what, top-class professionals drawn from the most attractive people on your planet working with the greatest writers and the leading research psychologists in order to put together the most attractive possible sexual stimuli for maximum commercial sales, and never mind what that does to people when they go back and try to have sex with a real person? Uh - I'm sorry, I realize it isn't your responsibility to answer that and I'm not trying to make you answer for your society and I know you wouldn't see me as having any right to vote on it yet. It's just - this wasn't a very good day for me even before I arrived in an alternate dimension. I'm sure your world has all kinds of redeeming features and is much better than mine at all sorts of things.]
[Most of the most attractive people on the planet do not want to work in porn, the writing is actually notoriously terrible, they don't hire psychologists, and substantial amounts of porn can be had for free though I assume at some point most of the involved producers expect a paycheck. I don't think it's a leading cause of relationship problems except if somebody in the relationship subscribes to a religion that thinks porn is morally wrong. Uh, is there anything else you want me to tell Jackson to get you to help you acclimate over there?]
Maybe if your civilization is too uncoordinated to avoid putting porn on the planetary network, you're also bad enough at making porn that the obvious sequelae don't happen - it sounds like the makers can't get paid? Right, because uncoordinating people just take non-excludable goods instead of paying patentgratuities on them. That goes some way towards explaining the bizarre absence of public goods around here.
[Sorry, let me think if there's anything else I need... well, either something I can wrap around myself for clothing, or some way of doing laundry before I go to the airport. Expectations about how I'll be woken up tomorrow, in case the standard way of doing that is dumping a bucket of water on me in bed. Bedtime-mouthwash if that's a thing here. And I'm not sure how I square up in attractiveness to your society's average, especially if you're higher-tech, and I'm old enough that I don't really have to anymore, but if somebody does have a spare faceblanding kit... wait, what am I thinking, if your society has porn on the Network you wouldn't have created any customs against walking around naked in the streets either. Nevermind. Mouthwash, wakeup expectations, laundry mechanism or clothing. I'd rather not show myself uncovered, even if there's no custom against it, and at least the men were wearing clothes.]
[I didn't get a good sense from the picture of whether you'll fit into Jackson's or his dom's stuff but they presumably have some kind of laundry solution. It is not standard to dump buckets of water on people; I'm in an earlier time zone than they are, so I can yell in your head till you wake up if you like, or they may have an alarm clock handy, but also your flight isn't until noon so you don't need to be up that early. They might have mouthwash though I don't know that there exists mouthwash specifically formulated for bedtime in particular if you're expecting something really narrowly defined there. Do not walk naked in the streets, wear clothes in front of people unless you are going to have sex with them, but I don't know what a faceblanding kit is.]
[Doesn't matter, it sounds like. I apply black pigment around my eyes to make my face look slightly less human and more tired and less pretty, in order to preserve a coordinated public good that it doesn't sound like your civilization cares about. There's no point in my trying to preserve that good on my own, since it's fragile against even a few defectors - so never mind, I guess? And I definitely won't walk naked in the streets if your society does coordinate against that.] She's sure not going to trash whatever tiny little scraps of coordinated good this society has managed to create for itself. [Out of curiosity, though, does your society have any great number of people who feel awfully out of place, like other people are doing much better than them and there's no hope for themselves, like lots of exciting things are happening elsewhere but never to them, who can't find any mate who turns them on despite there being many other members of the opposite sex who also can't find a mate who turns them on? Because if none of that is happening, either the lunar eclipse thing has further consequences I haven't foreseen, or this world is out of equilibrium for other reasons,] like this whole experience just being an internally incoherent post-death generalized dream, [or possibly my society was just wrong about what would happen if people blindly followed their local impulses of profit-seeking and pleasure-seeking in an uncoordinated unforesightful fashion. Not asking for an extended explanation if you're busy, maybe just... on a scale of 1 to 12, how true did that grim prediction ring?]
[I'm actually not busy at all today because I'm in the hospital waiting for the decent healing mage to be freed up from more life-threatening cases. Uh, I don't think most people are picky about their mates being the opposite sex, but apart from that, sure, some people are unsuccessful in various ways and depressed about it, it just doesn't actually seem to me like anything you've described would prevent people from being unsuccessful and depressed about it. Let alone prevent them from being depressed for other reasons.]
"You're in the hospital? Are you okay?" Thellim does not ask.
"Around 5% of our population goes to a Quiet City and only a quarter of those still end up unhappy enough to retire to cryonic suspension," Thellim does not argue back, "and if the connection between our carefully designed systemic properties and that number were obvious to your version of Civilization, it would have already fixed its problems."
She's just heard something much more attention-grabbing than that.
[I... I'm sorry. I'm starting to think that I might have traveled MUCH further between worlds, to a much stranger place, than I realized,] and I'm having to spend more of my effort on not just deciding this is a dream and trying to wake up. [Where I come from, entire species, in general, including the human species, have their shapes and forms encoded by genetic information in tiny DNA strands. The content of these DNA strands was shaped entirely by a multi-hundred-million-year process in which copying errors over the genetic information would occasionally give rise to variant sections of information, genes, that produced organisms that replicated and reproduced faster than others. In the human species, reproduction occurs when a male penis emits lots of tiny DNA-carrying cells into a female vagina, one of which combines with a larger cell from the woman, each of which carries half the genetic information to form the child. I can talk later about why the female doesn't just use all of her own genetic information to construct the child, if that part seems counterintuitive; or our tentative theory about why there would be differentiated men and women, instead of just women sharing genetic information with each other, though I agree that it otherwise sounds like a hole in the theory and we probably wouldn't have predicted it a priori either. On our world's view of things, it doesn't make sense to talk about any particular part of an organism being specially for reproduction, like the genitals; hands are equally organs made for reproduction, they're for using tools to get the resources needed to feed babies. People on my world care about finding opposite-sex mates and having children with them because it's literally the only thing that every cell in their bodies is designed to do, and if that's not true here then even though the people are shaped like me and even though the houses look like houses in my world, I don't understand any of the forces that this world is an equilibrium of, and people turn into psions or mages at a lunar eclipse and need to not eat any food with calories but it apparently doesn't matter if there's reserves in their liver keeping their blood sugar up and I, I, I'm sorry, I won't have a breakdown now because it won't be useful but I need a lot of native textbooks and I need to be able to read them. I'll take out a loan if that's what's required to get the language faster. I don't know where I am inside reality anymore. The part where there was gravity and breathable atmosphere fooled me.]
[I appreciate that you are trying to make fewer assumptions but I did not actually need Evolution 101, we have that here, it just doesn't... make everyone monosexual, any more than it prevents, uh, dogs trying to mate with furniture, say, or... the entire concept of masturbation. Historically people tended to assume women were all subs and men were all doms strongly enough that most people paired up in opposite-sex pairs with the occasional oddball who couldn't make it work but now we don't, so people like Jackson and his dom can pair off and it's fine. I'm not actually sure you can get a loan because you don't have, like, a legal existence, but I did actually find a language installation psion who lives in Sweden but can work remotely and will work for payment in kind from me.]
[You're using a number of words that my planet doesn't have and which don't explain why - the evolutionary equilibrium - I know one female-female couple, I set them up with a book series they really liked, they were rich enough to get in the highest bid on adopting an orphan, but from an evolutionary standpoint that's not the same as - I'm sorry, I just ended up in a different world and I feel like I'm trying to understand too much, too fast, I'd probably feel much more enthusiastic if I'd got here by spaceship as part of a formal science-inquisition but the way I got here was by being in a plane crash and thinking I was going to die forever no cryonic suspension and then just being here instead. I think I need to not think about this a little, maybe sleep if I can. Is this conversation something that can continue while I do things like shower and go the bathroom, or do you get unpleasant side-channel telepathic info when I do that? And - do you have any questions about my world? I can answer those without having to think as hard. You've been so nice to me and I haven't been nearly grateful enough about that, unless this whole conversation is putting me deeper and deeper into formal or informal debt in which case I really need to know.]
[The first word you said that didn't translate at all, a while ago, was 'Twitter', but I... might not want to hear it described right now in case it's some kind of enormous incomprehensible bizarre thing that drives people from my dimension mad unless we think about it very cautiously. You mentioned 'Langford basilisk' in the context of infohazards which implies I might never want to hear about it at all. Most recently 'sub' and 'dom' and 'Sweden' but it sounded like Sweden was just a region-a-faction-gathers-to.]
[So noted! Hearing about a Civilization that's scaling up to terraforming sounds like something that might make me feel a bit more cheerful about - all the strangeness of this place being for something, ultimately - and I think it might do me good to hear it. I'll stop you if you say anything that starts overloading my brain again.]
[If you say so. Uh, so, since uncontrolled magic is dangerous the state of the art is for magic kids who don't want their powers locked down to spend their time in virtual reality till they have it figured out. But virtual reality is new, I'm about the same age as Jackson and we weren't the first cohort to go through virtual control training but we were close. So before that there weren't many magic people, but now there are lots, it's just we're mostly young and don't have any really complicated powers that take decades to develop. But there are several organizations that hire mages to work on things like teleporting interplanetary distances, adding atmosphere, probably fiddling with the magnetosphere - there's a good candidate planet, we're the third one and the fourth one is about the right size and stuff.]
[Reddish-colored, extremely light but not nonexistent atmosphere, 1/10th your planet's mass and 38% of the gravity? Because if so it sounds like we come from analogous Solar Systems! That's really interesting, we always thought our own first colony would be at the poles of the first planet, but maybe the fourth planet is easier if you've got magic people!]
[We do not have the handheld blinky-flashy things! I'm guessing those are computers with wireless Network connections? It's been predicted our society will get there but not for another thirty years - computing progress slowed down a lot after the first years when everything seemed so easy. Mages would change everything though! I'm guessing that interdimensional trade is not really possible because the trade networks would be all over both our planets already, but if we could actually open a portal between your planet and my planet, everybody involved would be very very very rich. Do you have the concept of Comparative Advantage where even if your planet has an absolute advantage in every sector of manufacturing, we can still both become richer by trading with each other because our relative costs to produce different goods are different?] Thellim's mental voice sounds more cheerful now.
[Good guess. Uh, why did computing progress slow down? I don't think mages are actually heavily involved there and computers had to be decent first before we could do VR anyway. Interdimensional travel might totally be possible but nobody has invested years in trying it because there was no proof of concept about there being other dimensions to travel to, if you tell a lie detector and it gets decent press someone'll probably be able to take you home before you have to pull together the cash for immortality. We have comparative advantage.]
[I don't know in that much detail why computing progress wasn't faster? I have a general impression that it's hard to make the features smaller because you need higher and higher frequencies of light to carve smaller and smaller features into silicon. Which seems like the sort of thing where one mage could help build the machine you need to build all the computer chips, instead of needing a mage to make every chip. You might not even notice every time your society jumps a hurdle where it only takes one mage and our society is just stuck in that spot for another thirty years. And... I guess it's possible that there are natural events that connect two universes and then they know how to reach back to each other? But dath ilan seemed to occupy a universe that was very - mathematically simple, at its core, so far as we could ever tell - and there was no room in the character of reality for things like eclipsed-produced psions and mages. Your world seems like the sort where the rules allow for people like me to materialize; I don't think dath ilan's rules allow for me to go back. Maybe you could materialize more dath ilan people here, if they're about to otherwise die and have their brains not suspended. I'm curious about what your world does for immortality - we're just putting cryoprotectant into people and vitrifying their heads, so we can bring them back later when we have the tech - but feel free not to answer if it's liable to take a lot of thinking on my end, I shouldn't be trying to absorb everything at all at once.]
[I'm not that much of a wuss! I'm moderately upset and overwhelmed, that's not the same as traveling to an entire new world and having no thoughts on my mind except running back home without looking at anything or trying to help with anything! I don't think you can get me home. And if you can open two-way communications then at least my Civilization - of which I am part - will consider that there's much higher priorities than my going back home. But if at some point there's cheap-enough travel without every transport costing millions, I'll decide then which Civilization suits me best, and in time of course there'll just be one Civilization with two worlds.]
This thought had just straight-up not occurred to Thellim at all. You can't have brainvoices suddenly appearing in dath ilan. Dath ilan is normal. Dath ilan is real. The Brainvoice's suggestion sounds as unlikely as taking a pamphlet describing something really heavy, and heaving it through a reinforced-glass window.
Naturally, this impossible suggestion should be tested immediately.
[Let's try for my mother! Her name is Helorm, she raised three children of whom I was second, and when my little sister was full-time-employed and career-ascendant, she mostly-retired and changed her primary-civil-allegiance to the Grandmother Faction, though my older sister didn't have her first children until a few years after. She's definitely on the More-Chaos side of the Law-Versus-Chaos-Tradeoff in Civilization and always encouraged me to defy parental authority more often, especially my father's. Helorm's taste in fiction runs to romance-entrepreneurial novels where a female venture capitalist gets simultaneously courted for romance and capital by three glamorous inventors but the incentives are obviously terrible and only one of them is really being honest. Actually hold on, I should ask you what information you actually need instead of babbling at you.]
[I mean, some people have pseudonyms and that's fine so long as they're not using them for criminal activities, but I don't think that's what you mean? Helorm is the 3,813,004,102nd person born since they started counting births, and that number is unique to her. Did you just give people additional names so that the combined string of names became unique, instead of them having one unique name that would be way too long? That's... actually quite clever, I don't know if it's better but I think I like it.]
Huh. Thellim isn't quite sure what this system is meant to do or even if Isabella's Civilization is the sort where the systems do things but she doesn't want to inquire right now, that seems like the more tiring sort of conversation. [What else can I potentially tell you about my mother, if her birth number isn't enough?]
[I'm not sure what you mean, unless the 'one thing' is something like 'professional specialization, finding unoccupied niches that fit our never-before-realized individual combinations of genetic traits, and deliberately creating new variations across regions of the world in order to try doing things different ways in case the baseline of Civilization is doing it wrong'? We do all breathe oxygen, but we don't have much choice about that.]
[I expect that at some point in our past, maybe even after the screening-off point in which case I could look it up if I was on the Network, somebody ran a regionalized experiment to see what happened when people matured and lived with access to the more obvious kinds of porn to manufacture, and Civilization is on the no-porn baseline because the results looked worse. It's obviously easier to run the experiment if the Network has no porn on it to start with, but we wouldn't persistently keep all of Civilization in that state just because it made some experiments easier. We're not science maniacs.]
[You misunderstand. Before anyone started censoring anything why wasn't there any porn? We don't have a screening-off point, and I read a lot of random encyclopedia pages because I have an eidetic memory, so I happen to know that we have artifacts from before the invention of writing that are porn. Pottery and graffiti and stuff. It's not on the list of human universals, but it's old, and appeared all over the world before anyone was inventing fancy collectivist reasons to prohibit it. How was it removed?]
Thellim is feeling uneasy about where this conversation is heading. [So it sounds like your civilization either - never had the same problem ours had, or never noticed the problem - and I'm a little worried about whether I should be saying anything about this to you - but when we buried all records of our past in a safe archive where maybe someday the future could find them again, created a new planetary language, rewrote all the books, and then, two generations later, did it all again - I expect that any lingering porn wouldn't have made it through the filter? It would have been very surprising if it did.]
[That... answers my question.
Usually I'd be running this conversation through a lot more precognitive tries but unfortunately I'm on painkillers that affect my appetite so I can't today, or I'd... counterfactually have more questions about that...
...Jackson's going to bring you a bathrobe, you can change into that and he'll run your outfit through the wash unless you tell me it needs to be cleaned in some specific way.]
[My clothing doesn't have a Complex Laundry Code and hopefully your baseline laundry machines aren't so mismatched to our clothing assumptions as to destroy them? If I say 'let's do it using cold water, light agitation, and the simplest soap you have' does that go through? My clothes aren't especially valuable but they are artifacts of a distant civilization.]
[If your Civilization is happy with me wearing a T-shirt and sweatpants, I'm happy to wear them! Yes, let's be careful with the relics just in case they have an incredibly valuable sewing pattern that nobody here has invented. It's not likely but we can't actually replace them if they're destroyed.]
Thellim enters the shower. It doesn't look as complicated as she feared, and some careful experimentation gets the water to the right force and temperature without dousing her in cold wetness along the way.
[By the way - stop me if this is something I shouldn't say - you've mentioned being in the hospital a couple of times, and on medication. I don't see much I can do to help from this end, and I don't know you well enough to claim friendship as yet; but as one generic sapient being to another, I wish you the best of whatever it is, and would jump to help if I actually could.]
[Uh, thanks. I'll be completely fine, if I were in serious danger I would be higher up in the triage ordering, usually I get seen a lot faster than this but today there were a bunch of trauma injuries that the staff mage is taking care of. By tomorrow I'll be all patched up and full of bagels.]
[We'll pay an awful lot for that kind of work if you can actually establish two-way transport. We're pretty good about preventing people from dying permanently, myself excepted, but my grandmother would have liked to stay around longer and -]
Thellim thinks of something for the first time. In her defense, it's been a busy day. [Let me know when and if you can actually reach my mother...? I mean - there's much more important things going on - and my prior understanding of the universe is that you just shouldn't be able to do it at all - but - my family probably isn't very happy right now. They think I died in a plane crash, no brain preservation, they think I'm gone for good... I'm sorry. I shouldn't even have said that to you. It is not legitimately something I could or should ask you to consider as important.]
[Yeah, of course I'll tell you as soon as I reach her, just, that might take years even if it's straightforwardly doable.]
On her way out of the shower later on Thellim can catch out of the corner of her eye a glimpse of Brian laughing and swatting Jackson on the rear while Jackson is scrubbing the kitchen counter and giggling.
Thellim will smile because she is putting her generic happiness for sapient entities being happy in FRONT, and is putting in BACK any sense of the bottom falling out of the universe because this is not just one couple in twenty but an entire civilization in which evolutionary logic has apparently jumped out the window.
[The mage is going to see me now and then I'm going to crash for the night. I'm leaving your channel open so you can try to wake me up if you have a horrible emergency but try not to have any horrible emergencies, okay? I'll wake you when it's time to get up and go for your flight.]
[I shall diligently attempt to have no emergencies.]
Thellim attempts to head bedward. It's surprisingly boxish rather than person-shaped and she would've expected a proper house to contain something more like an advanced sleeping unit, but it looks serviceable enough. Thellim will nonetheless check the bed carefully before getting in, just to make sure this civilization doesn't equip its beds with built-in Thellim-eaters.
Thellim is not accustomed to houses without adequate sound insulation, at all, never mind those located next to some kind of unshielded machinery that operates at night!
Thellim briefly considers whether this is worth braintalk, decides against it being urgent enough to bug someone undergoing a medical procedure who said "emergencies only". Thellim is exhausted enough to sleep anyways, right? And if she can't fall asleep, that will just make her even more exhausted, in a process that seems positively bound to lead into sleep at some point!
"Whoa," Thellim says out loud, experimentally, also trying to transmit the thoughts. "I know English."
She'd - honestly she'd rather have been awake while something this large happened to her brain-state but Thellim will not complain at the moment.
"What happens if I try to say something with a longer symbol message length in English because it contains multiple concepts that have shorter codes in my native language? It comes out as a longer but grammatical sentence. That feels very odd. Does it help me think things that are shorter codes in English? It would help if I had an example of a problem whose answer was a short code in English but a long code in Baseline." Thellim stops trying to speak in English, it's weirdly awkward and she can already feel her thoughts containing less discourse about probability-theoretic concepts that don't have single-syllable names in English.
Thellim takes a tentative nibble. Not what she's used to, but no stranger than any of a hundred weird foods you can get delivered in dath ilan on days when you want to try somebody's bizarre invention instead of eating more accustomed food, and like those strange foods it's put together with care for her taste-buds. She'll devour it with gusto.
Is that a car? It's probably a car, it's on a paved flat surface suitable for driving. Interesting! Maybe with higher technology they've gotten the noise down to zero and the self-driving can handle the full complexity of surface conditions. That would save money on underground tunneling, though at cost of valuable surface area, but maybe their urban areas just aren't that dense.
Okay, so there is a magical reason they're not going to die in an enormous fireball spawned from the fuel tank of what sounds like an internal combustion engine which, like, why but never mind. Thellim will attempt to enjoy the unfamiliar music, and the sight of wooshing right through a city at speeds faster than even a powered-trampoline-avenue.
Thellim imitates the wave back, and adds a dath ilani salute meaning that much has been received and much is owed-in-a-friendly-way. There's some sweat inside her new clothes now and it's not drying quite as fast as in carefully optimized dath ilani clothing, but it will no doubt dry soon. She doesn't know why she was so nervous; this world has precognitives and if experience has taught her anything, it's taught her that dying in a giant fireball just means you end up somewhere else.
[You actually need to go to the desk that says American Airlines and get them to print you a boarding pass. That'll have a gate number and then you go to the gate. You don't have an ID, which complicates things, but please do not try to tell your entire life story to the airline agent, tell them you're Thalia Jones and you're traveling under section 114 sponsor Isabella Swan and then they'll confirm with me.]
[Rogerroger.] Thellim enters the huge building, and then has to look up at a lot of signs and read them individually instead of being able to just scan through them and let "American Airlines" leap to her attention. Seems like the sort of thing that will fix itself with more experience, so she's not worried.
The desk with "American Airlines" over it has what looks like a queuing line... yeah, Thellim is pretty sure that's a queuing line. She goes to the end of the line, waits, and pays attention to what the people before her do.
"114, ugh - Barb, do you know how to do a 114 -"
"Yeah, I can help you in a sec," says the presumable Barb.
Barb switches kiosks temporarily with Thellim's helper and does computer things and prints her a boarding pass and writes something on it in purple marker. "Line's shorter right now in that security checkpoint," she says, pointing.
"Thank you very much for your game-theoretic cooperation!" says Thellim. Whoops, that probably didn't sound like colloquial English, but in her defense what kind of post-apocalyptic language lacks a short word for that. Thellim quickly turns and heads toward the indicated 'security checkpoint'.
"Weirdo," she can just barely hear the nonBarb agent mutter.
The security checkpoint is a line bottlenecked at a guy who looks at IDs and boarding passes and then further slowed by people putting their luggage and shoes on conveyor belts and going through metal detectors or getting patted by uniformed personnel.
Why... shoes... well, magic, she guesses. Heck, this whole line could be an arcane ritual intended to scare away plane-eating demons, for all she knows right now. She'll put the question on hold in case it's easy to answer with Network access and doesn't require bothering Isabella.
Thellim duly puts her shoes and her clothes-in-a-bag on the conveyor belt when it's her turn.
Thellim wonders if she can become incredibly rich by explaining to these people what a comfortable chair should look like, or if people would just steal the chair designs instead of paying for them and that's why these chair designs are so half-baked. She wants to halfway-doze despite the noise, but doesn't want to risk missing her flight.
The high-quality glossy paper of the in-flight magazine is full of advertisements basically just asserting that someone's product EXISTS and making NO MENTION WHATSOEVER of any actual ARGUMENTS for why anybody would want to buy this product instead of one of its competitors and the information in this magazine is of NO CONCEIVABLE INTEREST TO ANY NORMAL PERSON and this feels like being inserted into a SURREAL DREAM VERSION of a NEWSPAPER and Thellim is now wondering if people here just BUY RANDOM PRODUCTS on being told they EXIST and everything is very CONFUSING again.
[I'll... take that as dark humor, shall I.] Like someone who understands the layout of LaGuardia, Isabella directs Thellim through it until they can meet and proceed to board the train. Isabella is a very pretty person who isn't blanding her face at all, though unlike some people Thellim has spotted she doesn't seem to be actively working on looking nicer than she does when she gets up in the morning. She has a rattan cane.
[Hi! Pleased to meet you! I hope that seeing your unfiltered beauty doesn't forever spoil me for all other human beings, but given my probable rising prominence in the world it's likely not too much of an issue in the long run. Is this a talking-out-loud situation or a brainvoice situation?]
"Feel free not to answer if it's complicated, but is there a reason you can't pay somebody else who has a car to drive you places? I'm still - trying to figure out why some things exist in this economy and not other things, the missing parts can't be random or you'd be missing at least one of the parts in an airplane..."
Thellim's impression of the word 'subway' is something like underground-car-tunnel mixed with multi-person-vehicle. She does not understand why, if they have the technology to dig tunnels, there are cars on the surface, and she doesn't understand why, if you've already expended the land-area to put single-person vehicles on the surface, you'd rather go in a multi-person underground vehicle instead.
"I shouldn't pester you with questions of relatively low priority, but be it noted that I'm still very disoriented about how much I'm unable to deduce conclusions from first principles and observations from hypotheses, with respect to facts like why someone would prefer the subway to hiring somebody else who owns a car. I know my own world well enough that it compresses to a small number of axioms and I can decompress them. Oh my ass how does anybody ever think in this language, all my sentences come out way too long and I sound like even more of an overly talkative neurotype than I actually am!"
Isabella tap-tap-taps along with her cane. "The cars you can hire are called taxis, and sometimes they're a good choice for a particular trip but they require telling the driver where you're going and making a slightly more complicated transaction and sometimes traffic is bad and if it's bad enough I sometimes get a little carsick, while I don't get subway-sick."
"Ah, the automation on subway vehicles is superior because they operate underground in a simpler environment? That would match my expectations if so. But why do the subway vehicles sound larger? What's 'traffic' in context, it sounds like a turbulent flow kind of traffic? Feel free to say this is not a priority question."
"Too many cars, not enough road? You can't build more road or charge more for cars during traffic? I've been coming up with hypotheses about magic-assisted reproduction to explain why your world's equilibrium had more homosexuality, but the more weirdness I run into, the more it seems like magic somehow disrupts the general process of balancing supply and demand." Or it's a generalized weird story premise that some generalized author isn't really trying to justify. It honestly seems more and more likely the more she runs into concepts like 'subways' and 'traffic' - the moon magic she could maybe buy, but the small economic details of this reality give a strong impression of having not been thought out.
"No, I don't mean psions and mages do it locally, I mean the whole nature of this being a magical world? And if Jackson and Brian each have one kid that way, they each end up with one kid they're 1/2 related to. If magic let them have kids with each other they'd be each 1/2 related to 2 kids, like heterosexual parents, and there'd be no fitness advantage for heterosexuality, which is why I thought that plausible... how recent is this sexual situation? Maybe your world just plain isn't in equilibrium and is currently experiencing rapid selection against homosexuality."
"The women would presumably also want to keep some of the kids so I'm not sure they'd wind up with fewer all things considered. Almost no one is monosexual at all and I don't know off the top of my head if it's more common to be heterosexual than to be homosexual if you're going to be one or the other but I think people who care about having kids a lot do actually select for the opposite sex when they're looking for partners. Like, I don't especially care about having kids so I'm more likely to wind up with a girl because most subs are girls, but my mom cared about having kids so she married a man."
"That's an awful lot by our standards," and it makes it even weirder that their economy has such awful food on planes, there should be seven times as many people to develop better recipes than that, "but I'm not thinking about the absolute number, I'm thinking about the relative frequencies of alleles in the breeding population, and why everybody doesn't already want kids. I mean, in our world, it's not the case that everybody wants kids, but that's because we're making a conscious effort not to breed ourselves into the... into fictional aliens who really, really want kids."
"Your Civilization just doesn't care about its eugenics at all? And in the absence of coordination, your reproduction is driven mostly by how much you want to reproduce? That really sounds like a recipe to end up as pregnancy-obsessed aliens in two hundred years or maybe even faster."
"I don't think you know as much as you think you do about what humans will do without it being magical, since at some point your planet was taken over by a meta-ideology which openly refuses you all the historical cautionary tales you might otherwise have benefitted from."
"It would seem self-evident that of the two of us I have more knowledge of what humans get up to with zero magic, but I agree that you may know much that I do not about what happens in prehistory. I suppose that if prehistorical societies tended to have sufficiently little magic you may know more than I do about my own world's environment of evolution. Though I'm currently entertaining several classes of hypotheses where the lunar eclipses are just the surface of the way your world fundamentally differs from mine. What of it?"
"Through most of history the extent to which magic mattered was that occasionally there was a natural disaster and occasionally a twelve-year-old got murdered. Then for a while occasionally the twelve-year-old would be sent to live alone in the woods for a couple years and be around later somewhat the worse for wear doing magic on medieval calorie sources with very little information on what they could theoretically accomplish, and most people never interacted with one. Then for a while there were somewhat more systematic setups for living in the wilderness with routine food and water drops, enough that there were enough lockdown psions to go around and nobody had to do that who didn't want to. Virtuality is new and most people still don't go and the skills take a long time to learn so many appear only once or twice the world over. Many, many things are not directly affected by magic. Meanwhile, everything in your world is governed by an extremely specific meta-ideology. So I would bet on myself over you if we were both trying to predict a nonmagical population of humans which did not happen to have received any missionaries or whatever from your planet."
"I don't think I can easily describe just how much lunar eclipses producing psions and mages does not fit with the character of reality, where I'm from. It's why I would be so incredibly shocked if you could successfully contact my mother. Our reality is - mathematically simple, deep down, and closed, things don't happen that aren't in the deep-down math. Something like your lunar eclipses can't be truth in isolation; it can't be that your reality is just like mine except that it has psions and mages on top, it must have a different character. This whole place is very different from my world in some deep ontological way, though somehow those two regions of reality intersected at having air and gravity and humans. You say that sex-indifferent attraction and too many cars needing to slow down aren't being caused by mages and psions in a way that's visible to you. And maybe it's not the lunar eclipses doing it at all, not directly. But my running hypothesis is that the strangenesses are interacting with something much deeper, the different thing about your world that allows psions and mages to exist at all."
"I... think I understand, and appreciate, your caution against generalizing from one example, but I'm not sure you realize the extent to which your own civilization seems to depart from universally convergent optima that can be derived from first principles and which a normal human civilization ought to reflect, even taking into account that humans aren't ideal bounded agents. It's one thing to end up on a parallel planet and find that clothing styles and cuisines are different. It's another to find out that - people are using addition that isn't commutative, their system of probabilities isn't some isomorphism of the Probability Axioms, scientists are reporting statistics not using Bayes's Rule, sexual attraction isn't evolutionarily optimized for reproduction, the number of cars on the roads doesn't adjust to match road capacity, and advertisements don't make any sensible argument for why people should buy the advertised products! Our civilization doesn't have a random form in those dimensions, it's being pushed both emergently and deliberately toward optimal forms."
"Well, in a fundamental sense, advertisements aim to overcome obstacles posed by different incentives to achieving common knowledge about product qualities! That is, if I was good enough friends with somebody, such that I thought they knew me very well and had my interests at heart, they could just tell me they were very sure I ought to buy something, and I'd buy it! In principle, the problem of advertising is posed when somebody who knows me less well still has justified belief that I, or a bunch of people in a class similar to me, ought to make a trade we haven't already made. The basic difficulty of this problem class is that you can also imagine people who don't have such valid knowledge, but are incentivized to deceive themselves about how good their product is, because they capture a portion of the gains from trade. And the basic danger of advertising is that if you have a group of people like that, they may be incentivized to burn all of their gains from trade on advertising - getting people to trade with them rather than somebody else. Like, you and I are both producing flavored drinks, which are actually exactly as good as each other, and we each capture 10 dollars... that is not how large our monetary unit of account is, English, but fine, 10 dollars. We each profit 10 dollars each time we sell a drink. If I'm self-deceptive about my drink being superior, and I pay $5 to produce an advertisement promising that and thereby convince one consumer to switch from your drinks to mine, I gain net $5 but you lose $10 and the consumer is no better off and also pays switching costs or costs of cognition, so social surplus has been destroyed. There's a mild tax on marketing, more symbolic than anything else at current levels, but it does remind people of how easily it can go negative-sum given the incentives and less than perfect information. So the basic challenge in advertising is to convince the customer that you actually do know about a product that's better for them to buy - overcoming my skepticism about my conflict of interest with whoever wants me to trade with them."
"So, in practice, an ad might look like a picture of the product, with a brief description of what the product does better that tries to sound very factual and quantitative so it doesn't set off suspicions. Plus a much more glowing quote from a Very Serious Person who's high enough up to have a famous reputation for impartiality, where the Very Serious Person either got paid a small amount for their time to try that product, or donated some time that a nonprofit auctioned for much larger amounts; and the Very Serious Person ended up actually impressed with the product, and willing to stake some of their reputation on recommending it in the name of the social surplus they expect to be thereby produced. Plus a Network trail to a much longer report from an old, even higher-reputation institution testing whatever the product's merits were. And the upshot is that people can find out about things they didn't know they wanted to trade, but could validly benefit from trading, with their cost of information partially paid by somebody who also expects to benefit from the trade and already knows about it; without all of Civilization's gains from trade being dissipated in a negative-sum fight about who trades with who, driven by an arms race in deceptive advertisements. To me, at least, this doesn't sound like a weird private quirk of our Civilization. It sounds coherent with some of the most fundamental and important theorems about systems of multiple agents, which states that in principle they end up on a multiagent-optimal frontier, and in practice they end up very close to a multiagent-optimal frontier."
"So, uh, it's not actually necessary for Coke advertisers to believe Coke is objectively superior to Pepsi in order for them to produce Coke advertisements, for one. Companies do pay people to try and review products sometimes but there is not a special category 'very serious person' that everyone listens to because we're not a monoculture. Also flavored drinks and lots of other products are matter of personal taste as much as or more than objective quality. Also very boring advertisements listing statements about objective quality... don't... move as much product... so they have been moved away from in recent decades."
"And that is an incredibly bizarre anomaly just like your lunar eclipses, except more disturbing because in this case I understand the theorems about agent behavior that they're violating, and I would have thought those theorems would generalize across widely different laws of physics. Something is messing with your minds."
"And I don't know what the Past Infohazard was, but if it also existed here and this is somehow what happens if you don't try to causally screen it off from your civilization, I am feeling a whole lot more on board than I used to be with the extraordinarily extreme measures our Civilization took to suppress it. No offense or anything."
"That is an extremely, profoundly credible statement which everybody on my world would believe immediately based on priors, and our reaction would be to fly out ten thousand venture capitalists to interrogate you about all the nice things you had, and all the ways in which our world was falling short, and which new businesses would be required to provide those things to you and lots of other people! That your world does not react like this seems to indicate some much deeper and more profound and alarming asymmetry!"
"We'd - no. I was going to say, we'd obviously build an experimental region that was based on your whole world as much as possible, to observe what went on when all your preferred changes were tried simultaneously, in case there was a great synergy that local experiments would never hill-climb for us. But if you can run non-magical experiments on genetics that cause mass civilian casualties that made your civilization completely give up on awareness of or influence over its own population genetics... maybe we really wouldn't try it your way, even in a small region. What happened, exactly? I'm starting to feel genuinely concerned about whether anything I might do is liable to blow up something I didn't understand and kill a hundred thousand people."
"Somebody thought some particular groups of other people were genetically inferior and decided to round up and murder as many of them as possible and some other people objected and there was a war. Is the extreme oversimplification of World War II. You are - I'd say you aren't going to do it by accident but I actually think it's really likely that what your history screening is covering up is lots of genocide much like that one of whoever wouldn't go along with your metaculture so maybe you are at some risk of doing it yourself."
"That contradicts theorems about how dignified people do things and therefore we would not do that and your world is VERY VERY DISTURBING and you should be more interested in fixing it and something is probably messing with your mind to make you less interested in fixing it."
"That would be the Nazis and the Soviet Union at three apiece on Wikipedia's list followed by the Ottoman Empire at two but the takeaway lessons there are mostly that fascism and communism are bad... I'm not actually sure what was up with the Ottomans, I haven't read much about them."
"I keep saying 'monoculture' because you keep talking like it is possible on your planet for someone to go 'oh, this doesn't look like a good place to maintain persistent variance inside a civilization' and then they alter the entire civilization to patch that and here there is no one who can do that."
"Nobody can produce public goods and there are no coordinative global institutions, yes, I noticed. The reason why this worries me is not that I think this is a thing normal humans do without magic, it's a thing I can prove that general agents with intelligence do without magic."
"All of these people are going to roughly the same place we are, to the point we need a long train of containers just for everybody making this trip...? This isn't an anomaly the same way as eclipses, but I suspect something in the back of my mind is guessing some number wrong by four orders of magnitude, or has some other mistaken assumption."
"Ohhh, that makes more sense. ...I wonder if there's a bunch of equally small details I could learn and then everything else would make equally much sense. It seems like that is a kind of experience somebody should expect to have when transported to another world, even though fiction novels couldn't pull it off convincingly."
[Not personally, but I don't think it was a big tech bottleneck so if you offer a big prize for effective sound-shielding you should get the tech quickly enough? But Jackson and Brian know how to cook better food than airlines serve and the airplane food was still terrible, so I suspect that there's that deeper problem again. Oh, I personally know how to design better chairs than you have in airports. Or at least I know what they're supposed to look like and feel like externally.]
[Airports and airplane food are not actually a problem of 'does someone, somewhere, know how to do better than this' but more of 'what's cheap at scale and what will the market bear'. Very few people decide not to fly because airplane food sucks. People with very strong food preferences just, like, bring their own sandwiches instead, that's what I do, I fill my carry-on luggage with sandwiches and snacks. Very few people decide to go to a different airport because it has nicer chairs because there are not so many airports that this consideration isn't overwhelmed by proximity and flight availability, so airports go for cheap chairs that hold up well to lots of use and are easy to clean and stuff.]
[All else equal, sounds like the hotel is easier to sleep in. I'm very open to considerations like the hotel being more expensive, harder to reach you from, containing obstacles I wouldn't know how to handle, would not let us solve computer-puzzle-games together at night before going to sleep, or such.]
[I know I must sound like a terribly lawful person, but in fact I am not such a pure, sweet, perfectly-coordinated person that I'm not curious about what kind of computer games a civilization develops when it doesn't care about infohazards or superstimuli! But mostly I was envisioning - standard social scripts for starting friend-business-partner-mutual-dependency relationships with people?]
[...well, you, uh, start out as a very small culture and there are some AI-controlled other cultures, or you can multiplayer it but you don't have a computer, and then you try to keep your culture afloat and accomplishing things while negotiating conflicts of interest with the others.]
[I really am interested in playing computer games! And similar new-friend activities like having you show me your interesting-favorite foods at our next meal, so you can see my expressions while I react. But please stop me if I'm about to socially impose in a way you find at all unpleasant. I really do not know your equivalent of the protocol for aspiring friends establishing comparable scales of desire and then comparing notes on how much they want various things in order to make sure they don't end up off their multiagent-optimal frontier.]
[Sushi it is.]
They get off at Isabella's subway stop and she shows Thellim to a sushi place, where they can sit at the bar and behold raw fish. The guy behind the counter seems to know Isabella, asks her "the usual?" and gets a "yeah, plus a sampler for her". Thellim gets an assortment of slices of fish on pats of rice and also an avocado cucumber roll. Isabella gets a giant bowl of rice covered in raw fish and drizzled with mayo and sprinkled with fish eggs, plus a side of edamame and a few shrimps tempura.
Isabella puts away her food very efficiently, pays by card, gets a complimentary matcha ice cream mochi for both of them to munch as they walk back to Isabella's apartment. "It's freezing out!" she tells the guy. "The better to appreciate your warm home!" he replies cheerfully. He has an accent. She eats her dessert.
"The food actually is different from anything on Earth - no, do not translate that, brain. It is subtly different from anything in dath ilan. And tasty! I will chalk that up as minor evidence for your worries about insufficient internal variance in dath ilan. We do have debates about that, you know, and different people have different opinions and everything!"
"Yeah, this is why I was switching to the phrase meta-culture." Here is Isabella's apartment building. It has a doorperson. Isabella nods to her and she nods back and peers at Thellim. "Who's this?"
"Thellim, you can let her in if she's by herself too," Isabella says.
"Yes ma'am," says the doorperson.
"Thanks for taking care of me!" Thellim says to the doorperson. Hopefully she didn't give off any wrong or just misleading social cues by saying that? Then Thellim follows slightly behind Isabella, a natural optimization for following somebody else when you're not sure of the forward path you're taking. Along the way, she absentmindedly brushes her long hair back over her shoulder.
"Sorry," Thellim continues the previous conversation, "I must have missed it when you first said meta-culture instead of monoculture - I don't think it's a standard word in the vocabulary I was given. But I think I rather like it? Meta-culture is exactly what we try to have. Different ideas, one language; people buy what they want, in one currency and transaction system; experimental regions try different things and argue about the meanings of the outcomes, but they report their likelihood functions with respect to the same hypothesis spaces for ease of multiplication."
"Huh! I don't think we've run into that problem - maybe because our population was barely approaching one billion, we were going to celebrate the milestone soon - but I expect that if it started happening, we'd have a big debate about whether dialects are glorious diversity or dangerous meta-protocol corruption. I'd probably vote on the first side if the dialects still had a very easy time understanding each other, and there were no famous catastrophes being caused by 'yes' in one language meaning 'no' in the other. If the concerned side won the vote by a supermajority, we'd probably try... finding people with very central dialects and favoring their careers in radio and television? That's just me thinking very briefly, we'd actually run a big prediction market about what the results would be if we tried the top twenty-four strategies under consideration."
"Not that I recall! To be clear, I wouldn't be surprised at all if there was a debate before I was born, or if there's a bunch of Very Serious People in the background half of whom are yelling about the importance of hiring more people from the linguistic centroid of Civilization to prevent drift, and the other half of whom are saying that we should underweight the Great City in hiring journalists because the Great City contains too little interesting variance relative to its population. Any time you strike a balance right it shouldn't be surprising if half the Very Serious People end up arguing on either side of it."
"It's what happens when you go around being terribly worried about all the things Civilization is doing not optimally, and somehow build up enough credibility that enough other people pay attention to you that you can make a living at it. Like, imagine the conversations we've been having, but now imagine that either of us was actually good at that."
"Well, the central trust fountains come from people with ridiculous, clearly non-chance outperformance at some task very demanding of mental acuity, where it's easier to judge later who got it right than it was to solve the problem earlier on. One classic example of a trust fountain would be Warren Buffett what no would be Nemamel, who beat the prediction markets for roughly her entire life, to the point where she could only trade anonymously and the name got retired for future children. Now say you have a good trading record, were first to short an experimental paper you later helped overturn in detail, initially staked a prediction market that later turned out important, wrote a lot of essays that seem well-argued, and then somebody like Nemamel says she thinks your essays are making a useful contribution to Civilization. Somebody like that is liable to be taken seriously, in the sense that other Very Serious People take the time to respond to their essays?"
"Maybe the person who gave me English had a different taste in idioms. Anybody worthy of mapping onto Nemamel should be an idiom!"
Thellim gazes around in appreciation at the elegant minimalism of the forechambers. She looks forward to seeing the rest of this moderately wealthy person's house!
"You can help yourself to anything in the kitchen if you get hungry, I keep stuff on hand for midnight snacks but I mostly eat out or at work - that's the bathroom there - I'll get you the spare sheets for the couch, it folds out." She demonstrates this and fetches sheets and a blanket and pillow.
Wait, this is the house? Seems small for a moderately wealthy person. Maybe it's just her off-house for when Isabella is visiting this region. Or maybe there's some kind of enormous supply-demand snafu for housing, but Thellim should not be leaping to this conclusion every time something seems off.
"Thank you, shall I try to set up the couch the way I'd predict it to work and you can correct me if I accidentally turn the entire thing inside out?"
Thellim takes another look at the couch. "Oh, I just lie on top of it? It's not supposed to fold back around me to keep me snug?" She is also having all kinds of weird feelings about having been precogged but she can deal with those later. "Nobody in your world knows how to design a bed, by the way."
Isabella is there to tell her what all the buttons do and give her advice, like that she really does need to build some military units ever even though it's very tempting to focus exclusively on infrastructure, because the neighbors will definitely attack her sooner or later.
"Uh, the barbarians roaming around just want your stuff, I think, and the other state civilizations sometimes you make friends with one and then they get in a fight with a third and want you to help or they'll be mad at you, sometimes they want your land, if you have different ideological commitments that can make things tense, if you denounce them or their allies that does too, if you won't denounce a third one they're mad at... Usually it takes a few things piling up for it to turn into a war but there are lots of things and it happens sooner or later, I've never gotten through a game without building military units although I have heard rumors you can build up to being such a ridiculous powerhouse that nobody challenges you."
"I'm not going to give up that fast! I reserve the right to stop playing this game if these amazing computer graphics show me human figures dying on the screen while they beg me to stop and negotiate instead, but that hasn't happened yet."
Thellim also resolves that she will not violate her deontology at any point while playing this game - no attacking anyone who doesn't attack her first, no denouncing factions just because some other faction demands it of her. It's hardly a deontology if you switch it off just because somebody else tells you something 'isn't real'. Maybe this extremely suspicious fantasy-scifi world's plot twist will be that the people inside Civ V are real. She hasn't been through exactly that morally-educational-prank as a child; but she's been through enough morally-educational-pranks to be suspicious, anytime someone saunters up and presents her with an extremely reasonable excuse to switch off her deontology.
(Her Civilization does have zero-sum games, and even army-maneuver games; but they're all played with abstract pieces, not pieces supposedly representing sapients in any way.)
Thellim was super prepared for this world to produce hyperaddictive computer games. With a fierce, determined expression matched only by her internal pride in her own virtue for executing the skill correctly, she promptly departs for bed the moment she feels tired. Take that, Earth! Your uncoordinated economy’s attempt at exploiting Thellim’s brain is no match for the public-good techniques of mental discipline produced by the collective will and prize funding of dath ilan!
Thellim flails her way out of unfinished sleep, her brain taking a moment to identify the distant loud alien sounds as unfamiliar music. She relaxes once she identifies the sounds; the idiom of music as a gentle but forcible waking signal is familiar to her.
Though it's surprising that she was sleeping so late that Isabella thought an enforced waking signal was better than letting her sleep? Either Thellim is in an earlier time zone relative to her departure point in dath ilan, or, er, possibly among the effects of hyperaddictive computer games is that they cause you to start feeling tired later than you otherwise would have.
Either way, she will once again not be proving any novel theorems at the frontiers of mathematics over the next few minutes, even leaving aside that Thellim is not in fact a mathematician and can't do that anyways. Thellim muggily struggles out of bed and starts putting on whatever clothes are to hand.
Thellim is slightly confused about how Isabella ended up needing to wake before the end of her natural sleep cycle for "work" - maybe the start of Isabella's work day varies and isn't controllable relative to her sleep cycle? - but agrees that having this discussion was a good enough reason to wake Thellim before the end of her own sleep cycle.
"Yes please," Thellim says out loud, since she's not eating granola yet.
Isabella pours her a bowl. [I'll be out for ten hours all told. I can check in with you when I have meal breaks, which is often, and when I'm about to leave the office, but ideally you would not interrupt me while I'm working - what you can do is, if you have a problem that doesn't need me right that second, plan firmly to tell me about it like forty-five minutes later, and then I'll have a window to find a good time to respond, since there's some short downtime during work and I spend the whole day in lookahead. Does that make sense?]
[Think so,] Thellim responds while eating granola. [I have grave issues with the fact that your universe can compute nested smaller versions of itself that way, and what this says about the probability that I'm in the top level at any given time, and what happens to the people inside when a nested version stops computing, and what that all says about what kind of place I materialized in after dying, but I think I mostly should first spend a whole day in front of a Network connection instead of bugging you about it.]
[Yeah, I can leave you the computer with Civ on it and just use my work computer today. I can show you... Wikipedia is probably the highest value single website, and then Google I guess, and that should hold you for a day probably. If you feel up to venturing out shopping for a change of clothes or for a restaurant lunch I can leave you some cash for that, or you can just microwave something out of my freezer when you're next hungry.]
[How dangerous is your world generally, if I try to do something like getting lunch without a psion protecting me? Without the ability to coordinate, it doesn't seem like it should be able to protect itself against the kind of violence represented in Civ, since protection is a non-excludable good at that scale. Is there a powerful mage that protects this whole city just to be nice, or...?]
[You are not especially likely to be mugged or attacked in this neighborhood but I suppose it seems likely that we have a higher crime rate than dath ilan. There's a psion who works in crime prevention but stuff is seldom escalated to him if it's anything short of arson or murder, since he's trying to cover a lot of people, so if you were lined up for a more minor crime then just being about to have a check-in with me would be your backup plan there, but it is not generally understood to be a particularly dangerous activity for people to go out and get lunch and go shopping in Manhattan.]
[I think I might be wiser to hide in your apartment of lower-environmental-complexity until I understand this world better. There's just too much that isn't compressible and hits me in specifically low probability densities of my model, too many places where I'm stupid and not just ignorant. Places where my model makes a routine strong confident prediction about how a human civilization at this tech level functions, and then yours does something wildly different, often not in a good way from my standpoint. Your world's language has a shorter word for "genocide" than "cooperation", for example, and I would not have expected that to be the case for humans. I might be having an easier time in some ways if I'd landed on a visibly alien world with crystal things or pulsating blobs.]
[If the local environmental invariants like air oxygenation and thermal range stay within their previous range of variance, I should survive ten hours. I hope I'm less stupid and bothersome when you come back. Oh - you should either show me how to operate local microwaves and refrigerators, or trust to my ability to deduce that safely from whatever the Network claims when a weirdly stupid person enters search terms.]
[The refrigerator doesn't require operation, you just open it and then you close it when you're done and it will beep at you if you fail to close it, but fair enough on the microwave.] She demonstrates the microwave once she's put her bowl in the dishwasher, and then shows Thellim how to get to Wikipedia (the current featured article is about a historical painter) and Google (she Googles an arithmetic problem by way of example, and then at semirandom "Guam", to demonstrate the principle).
All right, step one worked. Now it's time for THINKING. If she wants to actually do this correctly instead of turning into Science Maniac Verrez, she should actually list out all the anomalies and questions worth investigating, before she starts; then pick a first target based on its tractability X importance, instead of blindly maximizing one or the other; then try to come up with her own hypothesis before she starts looking at the data, so she knows what it is that she's learning and where her prior theoretical mistakes were.
Item two point one: This world has many precogs, which seems to imply that the possibility that Thellim is in the top layer of reality right this second is correspondingly small.
Thellim is strongly tempted to go over on Wikipedia and look up this issue right now, except for the enthusiasm-draining strong prediction that Wikipedia isn't going to know anything about it either.
Item three: This is apparently what happens to you when you die under circumstances where you could not possibly be cryonically preserved. Thellim is surprised, on reflection, that there has not been more speculation about this topic inside her own Civilization. Perhaps it is considered an infohazard, since even thinking about this for ten seconds is enough for Thellim to start seeing ways that thinking about this topic could drive people insane. Maybe 'Wikipedia' has articles about that topic, since nobody here seems to have the concept of information with negative value to imperfectly rational agents, possibly because they've never invented the idea of rational agency in the first place or realized that information is normally supposed to have positive value.
...well, it's sort of obvious how those three issues fit together, isn't it? This reality apparently possesses a capability of internal division that lets it obtain 'precogged' answers and outcomes from sub-layers of reality; metaphorically and perhaps literally, it's a complexity-theoretic-superior computer to the physics of Thellim's home.
Some layer of that reality contains either the original of Thellim's universe or an isomorphic copy of its physics, the same way that Isabella's universe contains all the sublayers that get precogged.
And even the top layer of Isabella's world is a sublayer of some other region of this hierarchically(?) divisible reality; and the layers above Earth somehow put the lunar eclipses into place, as an equilibrium of unknown other factors and forces and optimization pressures there.
Then, some rule of some layer above both Earth and dath ilan in the hierarchy, fired to copy Thellim from dath ilan into Earth...
Is any of this concentrating probability, though? Or did she just come up with a hypothesis isomorphic to "Anything can happen?" and start coding out the anythings by hand instead of compressing them? It sounds like mostly that, so far.
Still, when your previous hypothesis was Stupid in the sense of definitely prohibiting materializing from dath ilan into Earth, there is something to be said for jumping to a hypothesis of greater ignorance which allows more things to happen. And there is also something to be said for allowing that hypothesis of ignorance to be specific and have plausible-sounding specific structure inside it, just in case it does start concentrating probability or suggesting an agenda of investigation. It could be, for example, that 'Wikipedia' will have something to say about the precog-supporting sub-layers of reality, and that some experimentally-confirmed theory about them will look like definite affirmation that there could be a copy or original of dath ilan inside one.
Also, Thellim is starting to notice that, if she switches her attention from nonfiction to fiction, there is a strangely large amount of fiction that would prepare somebody to analyze her situation, if she died under circumstances not permitting cryonic preservation, and woke up in another world with higher information-theoretic complexity (implying more destinations than source events, which is why her transportation here would be rare as seen by the destination). Were those novels Keeper-influenced, encoding hidden advice from Keepers secretly meant to help people like her? "Be very careful about which nonhuman superpowers you bargain with or give your allegiance to" and "nonhuman superpowers may not respond to your requests the way you expect, not because they lack information about you, but because they have inhuman utility functions over responding to requests" are both very common themes in Portal Fantasies, now that she thinks about it. Those are both pieces of advice that she might have guessed for dead people, if she was guessing blind. None of that advice seems obviously relevant to her own actual situation; but it wouldn't be surprising if the Keepers guessed wrong, guessing that blindly.
...This mostly feels like the wrong thing to consider right now, even if it is in some sense the most important.
Go back to breadth-first. What, specifically, in this world is wrong and makes no sense? What is every anomaly Thellim can remember seeing since coming here?
1. Her literal materialization in somebody's home. Actually, that it was inside somebody's home and not over the middle of the ocean is sufficiently improbable-given-randomness to be worth noting itself.
2. The home contained two males in a couple, something far more frequent here than in dath ilan; it would later be claimed to her that sexual attraction on Earth doesn't go by reproductive potential of couplings at all, in defiance of the evolutionary equilibria that are supposed to be where biology and biological cognition originally come from.
3. Thellim tried to speak a different language to show that she was from outside their world; which didn't work, in retrospect, according to later info, because Earth had more than one widely used language; the first of many, many cases of Earth being way off the multiagent-optimal boundary despite all the theorems showing that shouldn't happen for intelligent agents in general.
4. Thellim was contacted by a voice in her head, because Brian and Jackson would have contacted Isabella later, and Isabella is a precog...
Thellim is starting to notice an isomorphism between the set "anomalous events" and the set "all events since landing on Earth".
The thought of trying to list out everything that happened to her in order is making Thellim's brain feel tired, even if it would be the methodologically optimal thing to do. Maybe she'll just forgive herself for being less perfect, and do this more sloppily. Yes, even on this irreplaceable first-pass-at-the-problem where her thoughts are fresh and hindsight traps are minimal. There's a reason why Thellim's original employment wasn't as a scientist; she didn't want that much rigor in her daily mental life.
Okay, rougher view of the anomalousness of this world. There's all sorts of places where pieces of Earth ought to be generated by an optimized equilibrium, observable facets of reality where the derivatives of some fitness gradient should have come to an approximate rest along most dimensions as pushed by an optimization process. Like natural selection, and sexual desire; or offered economic goods, and people selecting where to spend their money. Then instead there's sex-indifferent sexual attraction, or airplanes with terrible food and nonsensical advertisements.
An obvious thought is that the layer of reality she's now inside didn't generate those features by tracing a long causal history to find equilibria, and instead just... filled things in, sort of. Like an author making up features of a book, only not quite like an author, because a human author paying attention and trying for realism wouldn't have non-upgradable bad food on an expensive airplane trip. The people inside the world are allowed to notice these facts, but not allowed to realize that they're anomalous, or they've come up with overfitted hypotheses that manage to explain what should not be explainable.
Alternatively, another obvious thought is that there's perfectly sensible reasons for everything 'anomalous', and Thellim just doesn't know what they are. Like with 'subways' seeming at first to be moving much too many people from one place and time to another, but hiddenly, subways just make additional stops... actually that still doesn't make very much sense? There were still way too many people, even if they were going to twenty destinations instead of one destination. But it makes twenty much times as much sense as before Isabella explained that part to Thellim, and maybe that reflects a predictable direction of updating where Thellim could learn more and more facts and things would stop looking out-of-equilibrium.
This seems like a good general point to try to narrow down first, if Thellim isn't going to do the proper, rigorous, mental-effort-intensive, slow process of collecting all her data and considering all her questions before investigating any.
In particular - though maybe this is just recency bias with respect to what she's thought about last - the couple-sex-mix frequencies seem most likely to have an explanation that is in Wikipedia, if events in this world have explanations at all. Economics is complicated and changes rapidly as lots of agents compete to participate in more gainful-trades. Sexual attraction moves more slowly over evolutionary time and is easier to study.
Also, the pattern of romantic couplings generates a huge fraction of all the goodness/fun/utility in Civilization, so even here somebody should be studying that? But no, you could say the same thing or even more so about everybody's genetic material, and here that is considered a bad thing to try to optimize. Well, either Wikipedia will have something to say about it, or there will be no articles in Wikipedia on sexuality; and later Isabella will explain that one time a scientist wondered out loud what makes two people fall in love, and then everybody on that continent murdered each other, after which nobody ever asked the question again.
Actually, no, if that scenario is true, the whole story will be on Wikipedia! Because Earth doesn't infohazards!
Thellim takes a private moment to complain to herself about all the dubious looks Isabella gives her, every time Thellim mentions Civilization being grownup enough to do something that Isabella's version of 'civilization' can't manage to do without people randomly killing each other, for what doesn't even sound to Thellim like reasons, and it is obvious to her which of these two ways of organizing a planet is doing better, and it's the one that can manage to subsidize childcare for unusually smart or healthy people without that turning into immediate mass murder for reasons that Thellim still cannot begin to understand even after being told the end result in this world, but fine.
And Civilization isn't a monoculture either! Just because their world can manage to coordinate on anything does not make it a monoculture! Thellim bets that her Civilization has managed to produce one thousand times as much informed analysis of the cost-benefit tradeoffs of how much exploration and exploitation to do in particular dimensions of society! And then meta-optimize their world for the correct amount of diversity versus optimization! But Isabella would just point to that as even more proof that dath ilan is a monoculture! When what they actually have is a planet whose qualities vital to life and happiness are distinguishable from noise!
She's getting sidetracked, here. Probably because Isabella is hosting her and being incredibly generous to a stranger without - apparently, this part itself is bizarre - any expectation that Thellim will be able to parlay her knowledge into trillionaire status and repay her. But sometimes Isabella acts disapproving, and doesn't seem to want to clarify their relationship with more explicit terms; which makes Thellim feel unsure whether maybe the support gets shut off, if she says the wrong thing. Thellim is at least temporarily dependent on Isabella, right now, more than she's been dependent on anyone since she was eight years old and passed the tests for initial-level economic self-determination. Which means that Thellim has things she wants to say back to Isabella on certain subjects, but has been suppressing herself from saying, because it may or may not be safe; which means those rejoinders keep running through her mind, a loop of cognition that can't complete itself.
Thellim acknowledges this feeling; tells the feeling that it will have a chance to speak again later, when she understands her relationship with Isabella more solidly; and turns her attention back to analyzing Earth.
The topic at hand was whether the couple-sex-mix here would turn out to have a surprisingly reasonable explanation.
Thellim can try to observe this on Wikipedia.
Before she does that, she is supposed to try and solve the puzzle herself; so that, if there is a surprising answer, Thellim can notice herself having been wrong, and ask about how she went wrong.
So. If it's not just the world being painted in sloppily, or in a pattern that Thellim doesn't understand - then how could this result be an evolutionary equilibrium? Or more generally, what would Thellim guess had happened here, if she'd been told it was the result of history happening?
The first obvious guess was mages enabling homosexual couples to reproduce. It's a very elegant and clear-in-retrospect guess which would have instantly explained how sexual attraction could have come uncoupled from the previous sexual polarities, to the point where Thellim is ashamed she took as long to consider that hypothesis as she did. But it was a very good hypothesis before Isabella shot it down.
Thellim had even got as far as deducing that, with sexual reproduction uncoupled from the original binary polarity, a new binary polarity would probably start to emerge for the same reason it originally emerged in sexual organisms; hypothesized, but not known, to reflect a divergence of sexual strategies between "fertilize all the other organisms" and "actually raise the children". That would be the 'dom' and 'sub' part, or so Thellim had been guessing; and once 'doms' and 'subs' had started pairing off, the set of all 'doms' and the set of all 'subs' making equal contributions to the next generation would have stabilized their relative population frequencies at 1:1, for the same reason that males and females were thus stabilized. Or to be more precise, parental investment would have stabilized at 1:1, so if raising a 'dom' takes twice as many parental resources as raising a 'sub', there should be half as many 'doms' as 'subs'.
The part Isabella mentioned earlier about 'doms' assuming more control and 'subs' having less control in relationships, on this view, would represent a new iteration of the not-entirely-pleasant strategy-divergence between "insert your genetic material into other organisms" and "accept that genetic material and raise the resulting offspring" that gave rise to men and women. Even with the specific events of prehistory screened off, dath ilan doesn't hide that general truth of the past. The consequence of that evolutionary logic, as executing adaptations in men and women, is too obvious to need any historical records; it's immediately visible to anybody who knows evolutionary biology and has read a few romance novels. The untrained male has an instinct to seize and guard a woman's reproductive capacity, instinctively using violence to stop her from interacting with other men at the same time that he instinctively displays other forms of commitment to try to earn her acquiescence. The untrained female has adaptations that assume an environment in which men will try to pressure her into more sex than is optimal for her own reproductive fitness, so her adaptations push her to instinctively resist that pressure while also instinctively trying to increase the number and quality of men who'll be interested in her. There is a long-running dichotomy-tradeoff-argument in dath ilan between the position that this is just stupid, and somewhat evil, and was structurally evil back when some of the first sexually recombinant organisms started to specialize in injecting their genes into other organisms; and that current humans should opt out entirely from the more conflicty and combative ways that sex evolved to work, starting with using mental discipline to counteract those tendencies and eventually trying to select them out of humanity's descendants. Versus the position that it's (1) not that bad, (2) actually quite fun in saner versions, and (3) now baked into humanity's core utility function as a top-level value that is not up for debate from merely instrumental considerations or how it originated a billion years earlier. Almost nobody completely believes in either implausibly-oversimplified-policy-stance extreme, of course, but people differ in where they place themselves on that spectrum of opinion.
Thellim had gotten as far as reasoning through all that, and wondering whether the new 'dom' versus 'sub' sexual polarity had ended up better or worse from the standpoint of "how awful would it look to a generic nice alien that reproduced asexually" or, possibly, to Thellim herself.
Except that apparently mage-assisted reproduction is not what's going on.
It was a very pretty hypothesis, but it is, apparently, not what's going on.
So Thellim needs to properly let this beautiful hypothesis die, mourn it, and then start over.
Well, it's a bit of a premature-observation-cheat. But Isabella did mention that Brian and Jackson could make arrangements with a female-female couple to get kids all around. In principle, this ends with everybody having the same number of offspring and replicated genes as in two male-female couples. Arguendo, why couldn't that lead to evolutionary equilibria that were just as stable?
Counter-arguendo (Thellim replies to herself): Assuming both Brian and Jackson cooperate to raise both of Brian and Jackson's respective children, and the two women do the same with their two children - there'd be a lot of guardian-investment in children not genetically related to the raiser. Over evolutionary time, you'd get guardians showing favor to their related children over their unrelated children, and maybe slipping some help to their offspring being raised elsewhere. Which seems like it would degenerate back into heterosexual pairbonding.
For that matter, wouldn't some female-female couples go looking for unusually cheerful and healthy geniuses to inseminate them? And wouldn't that produce dramatically greater reproductive variance for males than females, which would come with its own set of problematic evolutionary trends over time? Or would that act of optimizing their children count as a forbidden-to-think-about concern over genetic inheritance because people in Isabella's world start murdering people as soon as they think about that, not that Thellim is worried about that or anything, it's not like anybody here thinks that could possibly be anomalous somehow, or in any ways related to this being the kind of universe that has an impossibly bizarre lunar eclipse setup and terrible airplane food that people don't notice as strange -
She's getting off-track again. She's supposed to be conditioning right now on the assumption that this universe does have a consistent historical logic.
Thellim can't think of any arrangements for non-magical homosexual reproduction which would be evolutionarily stable over the long term, faced with competition from ongoing heterosexual reproduction. This could just be because there's a set of adaptations for stably trading kids that Thellim has failed to envision. But the more likely hypothesis - again going off premature-observation-cheating from Isabella mentioning relatively recent changes to sexual norms - is that the current situation is not in near-equilibrium evolutionarily. Give it a few centuries, and heterosexuality will become more common; the remaining male-male couples will be frantically competing to become one of the couples that has a thousand children apiece with the female-female couples; and everybody will be consciously desperate to have children.
Continuing that reasoning further: If 'dom' and 'sub' polarity isn't the effect of bipolar sexuality being destabilized by magical reproduction, the obvious next thought is that 'dom' and 'sub' are the causes of that destabilized bipolar sexuality.
Supposedly, Isabella's Earth doesn't put any care at all into preventing economically-adversarially-optimized superstimuli from being developed and released to the Network - has no concept of infohazards in general, apparently. And to a first approximation, Earth has nobody in charge of its globally important features, which is why the interdimensional alien visitor got picked up by one helpful psion and taken to a small apartment. So some porn-making corporation could have developed superstimuli versions of sexual polarity, icecreamizing male to 'dom' and female to 'sub' in ways that bound more tightly to sexual receptors than the original sexes; and then that meme spread like a detonating supernova through their whole civilization and entirely displaced masculinity/feminity. Without there being even the theoretical possibility of anybody who could stop to question whether that was a good or bad thing. And the new situation isn't evolutionarily stable, but Isabella's people can't let themselves think about that or where the new setup will trend or eventually stabilize, because then they'll go insane and start stabbing each other with kitchen knives.
So that - feels like Thellim's current hypothesis, more or less? Her guess in advance of observation? It's not a very polished hypothesis, but Thellim doubts she'll come up with a much better one for further thinking. The point here isn't to be correct, so much as to notice what she learned after finding out the correct answer - to notice which parts of Thellim's wrong background reasoning helped produce her no-doubt-wrong conclusion.
Of course, that's assuming the Network even contains an answer. Most of Thellim's guessing-probability is on "There literally isn't a historical reason, and people in this layer of reality are not noticing that their airport seat designs and sexual emotions aren't plausible equilibria of historical developments."
And that's quite enough trying to guess the answer in advance. Thellim has been good, she has been very good, she has been super scientifically virtuous about being explicitly wrong in advance, instead of pretending afterwards that she was "mostly on the right track".
Now let's start Wikipedia-ing... what keyword, exactly? "Why isn't everybody heterosexual?" That sounds like a Network query rather than an encyclopedia article title, but maybe the Network query will tell Thellim what keywords she should even be checking in Wikipedia.
First google result: "The invention of 'heterosexuality' - BBC Future". It mostly seems to be arguing that 'heterosexuality' is a stupid concept and shouldn't even get a word in the language or be taught to children, although of course the article doesn't phrase it that way because sanity forbid that anybody try to coordinate around children learning optimized subject matter or that anybody try to design a language to facilitate clear thinking.
Okay, let's try: evolutionary biology of doms and subs.
This is very rapidly heading in a direction that is very not good.
The science paper seems to be talking about ways that 'dom' and 'sub' key into evolutionarily older adaptations and it's confirming in passing that the shift in sexuality is recent, though it frames it as an insight into something that was always true, but there's - there's hints of - things worse than dominants giving orders and submissives taking them - of course this world would somehow manage to invent something worse than masculinity and feminity to replace it -
Stop. Deep breaths. She's not quite distressed enough to fall back on solid-core reasoning, but she is in literally another dimension and needs to be careful about jumping to conclusions. All her predictions have been horrible and that's not a good sign for her models being real. She is not necessarily the protagonist who got transported into a broken world in need of fixing through the power of clear thinking and good coordination; she may be in a cautionary tale about protagonists who think they know what needs doing when they really, really don't. Jackson didn't look unhappy or scared of Brian.
Of course that could be because Jackson wound up with an unusually nice dominant, or because that was a good day in that household when Jackson didn't get any horrible orders - for that matter, there's some of the less fun to think about behavioral-econ experiments, the ones where the experimenters didn't push nearly as far as it looked like they could have, for ethical reasons, but which were awfully suggestive about what people might end up being happy to get by contrast with much worse deals they could have received -
Maybe Jackson seemed happy because he was getting fed that day.
She needs to figure out - a Google query, a Wikipedia keyword - and screw making predictions in advance - but her System 1 seems to be frantically scrambling even as her System 2 yells at it to calm down and she can't figure out what to query to figure out which kind of protagonist she is, whether this is a horror-world or if she's just failing to understand a coherent set of customs that make moral sense once they're explained, Isabella thought that "submissives" liked taking orders, but of course Isabella is a dom and nobody in this world is going to have the tiniest training against self-serving beliefs because you have to think about children's education to do that -
What happens when a submissive decides he doesn't want to submit - when a submissive refuses a dominant's order? Maybe there's some more incisive question that would separate the ethical possibilities, but right now Thellim's System 1 is scrambling and she just types in the first Network query she can think of:
What happens to subs who are disobedient?
There's - there's a wall of text excerpted from links and awful words jump out like punishment and more awful phrases like fun punishments for your sub but maybe it's just extra homework she has to not panic until she's sure, and unknown terms like "safeword" that don't translate but sound vaguely reassuring to whatever probable-dom put this language in her head, Thellim's eyes scan over fragmented sentences she doesn't understand but that definitely aren't reassuring her, and then stops at a link that promises to show a video of what happens to disobedient subs and video sounds easier to understand than the excerpts of sentences Google is showing her so Thellim clicks through.
no no no NO NO NO she doesn't want to be here she doesn't want to be in this horrorworld she doesn't want that to happen to her no no what if Isabella thinks Thellim is a sub is the person in this video rescuable no they have to be dead by now nobody could withstand that kind of punishment for long without dying
One of the primary core reasoning patterns says not to kill yourself. This potentially needs to be adapted to circumstances. What she saw in that video looked a lot worse than death and probably ended in death anyways. Killing herself is a potentially reasonable strategy if her chances of ending up like that otherwise look high enough.
Alternatively, she could try to stay here and fix this broken world, and risk ending up like that herself.
That should have been a very fast decision, shouldn't it? The correct course of action is that she's supposed to fix this world, right? Thellim is one person. The number of disobedient submissives being punished right now is much larger than that. Why is this decision hard?
It's sad. Shameful. Thellim thought she was more of a, protagonist, than this.
No. No, there CANNOT be some unknown fact or unseen line of inference which justifies this. This is a not a novel whose elaborate lesson will turn out to be about the importance of perspective-taking and appreciating that other people may have unseen knowledge and arguments that you failed to imagine and which paints them in a much better light than you first thought. If this were a novel, which nobody would ever buy, it would be a novel whose lesson was that there are SOME THINGS WHERE YOU DON'T HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE'S A JUSTIFICATION FOR THEM AND YOU CAN AND SHOULD BECOME UPSET WITHOUT FURTHER HESITATION.
She has just seen a woman restrained so that she can't get away, can't even move, as one man - who had a - that he was using on her unprotected - while another man was violating her - you do not get to reveal hidden arguments why that is acceptable to do to anyone under any circumstances ever. Nobody, not even somebody who'd wantonly murdered a city, not even somebody who'd done that to someone else. It would be a case of something where the author shouldn't even put it into the story's worldbuilding, because even as an example of evil it would traumatize the readers and numb their moral sensibilities to saner sins, and if there was the slightest hint that the author thought it could even possibly maybe be okay, if it looked like the sequel was being set up to reveal a clever argument for why this was a perfectly okay thing to have happen in society, the correct coordinated response would be to ban the book. You do not get to put that into your fun thought experiment for what a different possible society could maybe think was okay.
It's weird how that final thought, the sheer unfairness of it, causes something in Thellim to snap and just like that she's thinking again because the sheer insanely over-the-top unfairness of the situation has amplified her emotion of meta-level annoyance to the point where it is capable of fueling meta-level cognition.
Well, either this situation runs on sufficiently storyish logic that she will be able to actually take over this world and rescue the submissives, using the outside-context black-swan-to-the-natives dath ilani concept of optimizing anything ever, and/or whatever magic she gets during the next lunar eclipse; or, alternatively, Thellim is just one woman up against an entire world and she will fail without ever coming remotely close to succeeding.
And she needs to actually calm down and actually think and figure out whether Isabella is actually planning to - to do whatever doms do to claim subs. Maybe Thellim already did that to herself by declaring herself to be traveling under "section 114" at the airport. Maybe this entire situation is because Isabella saw an unclaimed person wandering around, without whatever privilege makes somebody a dom, and picked up the gold bar in the street.
Wait. That's testable. Google query: what is section 114?
Section 114 is a regulation allowing psions who work in aircraft mishap prevention and certain other areas to vouch for passengers flying without ID or otherwise irregularly, although it looks like this is mostly intended to allow lockdown psions to get fasting kids within range of them for lockdown with a minimum of waiting.
Okay. Okay, that could be a step in an ill-intentioned plan but it is not of itself an incriminating step. For that matter, if Isabella was planning something horrifying, it wouldn't make sense to leave Thellim inside this apartment with Network access. Unless somebody is monitoring the Network? Precogging the results? It still doesn't seem smart compared to - to putting guards on the apartment? Fine, nobody on Earth has ever heard of optimizing anything possibly including their plans, but there have to be limits to that or they couldn't manually drive cars.
...It seems surprisingly tight. Giving Thellim English hugely increased her freedom of action, created the probability that Thellim would talk to somebody else and find out about any plots that Isabella had, created the probability that she would ask somebody on the plane what doms and subs were.
Even as a cunning plot to create trust through apparently offering trust first, it's way too much risk from Putatively Malevolent Isabella's perspective.
Isabella doesn't - didn't - expect Thellim to end up opposed to her. Giving Thellim English that quickly was an act of unambiguous initiation-of-cooperation or just plain friendship.
...getting one submissive out of a chamber like that before she died would justify - almost anything, surely? But you're not supposed to betray the logic of that algorithm period, there's just the one and you can't repair it each time it breaks a little more - across however many worlds there are - but there's an exception for understood broken promises, where obviously the promisee never had in mind a situation as extreme as the one you encountered - but Isabella would not agree with this and these circumstances are ones where "please don't conquer my world even if you don't like it" could be, no, presumably is, exactly the sort of thing where Isabella would see that as an intended retroactive condition of her help.
Thellim arrived in a house instead of three hundred distanceunits underwater in the middle of the sea. She arrived in the house of somebody who knew Isabella. Maybe both of those suspicious coincidences are meant to be helpful. Maybe Isabella is - kindly enough - that Thellim could actually - talk her into a different moral position?
Because if nobody like that exists anywhere in this world, Thellim's impossible quest is going to be very lonely and probably very short.
Why now. Thellim hasn't even had time to Google how much psions can read thoughts that aren't deliberately projected, or emotions when you're upset, which is the actual thing that Thellim should have done immediately.
[Trying to figure out how to construct elaborate hypothetical questions for you.] Also, Isabella, let me know if you're just getting all my thoughts right now.
[I'm worried about what happens when I'm precogged once, which I realize must be happening to everyone all the time because of lots of precogs around this world and the speed of light, but I also don't know how to navigate a conversation where precognition is happening on one side of it. Is it possible for this conversation to apparently only take place outside of precognition as far as we know?]
[It's costly for me to precog conversations I'm participating in because I precog conditioning on my own decisions so I have to drop and retry a lot if I want to map out conversational branches, plus today I'm working so I'm already spending all the calories I can swallow on that, and I am not currently trying to precoggily manipulate this conversation because as far as I know I don't need to worry about leaving you alone for a couple hours and coming home to find that you have started World War III. If you do decide to interrupt me while I'm working I will see that as part of my precogged workday because it's not conditioned on my decisions.]
So if, hypothetically, I did need to start a planetary-scale conflict
[Poking around the Internet did start to give me the impression that I might end up really worried about this world's situation. Though I'm not sure that worry would be - an irreconcilably bad thing from your own viewpoint? If you came into dath ilan, would you try to stop people from offering childcare subsidies to unusually happy, healthy, intelligent potential parents? Or try to decensor our past? Or - if you ended up inside my house, somehow - how would you handle that situation? How would you want me to handle that situation?]
[Uh, I guess I'd try to be one of the people who gets to read about the world's past before deciding to un-censor it, assuming there are such people, in case there's a really really great reason that I just am not thinking of. I don't think childcare subsidies are particularly bad. If I ended up in your house I would... want a place to sleep and a way to get food till I could contact Earth? Which would probably be easier than me getting your mom from here because I already know Earth people and specifically have a twin who I could telepath before anyone else. Presumably I would be swarmed by venture capitalists which, you know, sounds kind of fun unless they took up a ton of my time and I didn't have any left to practice telepathy.]
[Uh, my current guess is that your culture was started that way but might not have any ongoing atrocities now that you are there, but if I showed up and discovered that you, uh, are ongoingly killing dissidents or kidnapping their kids or something - I don't know, that feels really detail-dependent, whether I had any leverage on there? Did you wander into the parts of Wikipedia that are about North Korea or something?]
Thellim notices she's pacing around the room, and tries to control her nervousness... no, wrong move, she should just let herself pace. [But you already think North Korea is an importantly suboptimal situation, right? What if you were my guest in dath ilan, and dath ilan was collectively doing something like that, and I - hadn't quite realized yet, that it was wrong - but you didn't know that I was necessarily beyond convincing?]
[I guess I'd try to convince you? In precognition if it seemed really delicate. Uh, is this about something you have just realized is rotten in the state of dath ilan or is this about you really not liking something about Earth even more than you already don't like anything about Earth besides sushi.]
[There's - there's educational-pranks we get, as children, the lesson of which is that - there's a flaw in human nature, at least in our nature, and at least we think it's a flaw. It's that when you have some broad, sweeping statement that comes from - from kindness, from goodness, from the thread of Light that runs through the core of humanity - then even though people agree in the abstract that this kindness ought to apply to everyone - they sometimes just sort of forget that those morals exist, for some group of people - and then sometimes, the argument is as simple as saying, "But they're people too." Only we get warned so much, as children, as adults, that it is weirdly possible to go on disagreeing past that point, terrifying experiments that stopped early and obviously could have been taken much further - but I don't know if this world has any concept at all, that there are things you ought not to do to anyone - are there things that you think, in principle, shouldn't be done to anyone?]
Thellim manages to notice this time that the English word 'porn' is matching against her horrifying memory, though with some strange-feeling internal missed connections, and that 'porn' also refers to something artificial. Hope flickers up in her. [Wait. Maybe I've just been really stupid. If I see a video of somebody being hurt is that not real any more than somebody apparently dying in a TV show?]
[I - I don't know how to say this and I've been messing up this whole conversation but please listen to me, I can see how the dominants might have been - having fun - the thing I don't know how to say - in my world - we would think the submissive was a person too and it would matter that they were not having fun. Please hear me out. Please.]
Thellim is confused and it's not nearly as much fun as when it was about bad economics. Maybe the video she saw was fake and Isabella is talking about a different class of videos that are real. [No, she wasn't having fun, so maybe it wasn't real, then, the submissive I saw was -] Thellim describes it like she's trying to spit out the words as quickly as possible so the memory will stop burning her, which it does anyways.
[Jackson and I went to the same school and originally became acquainted because he was sexually harassing me, among other doms. It put us in kind of an awkward situation, see, because telling him to go away would be giving him an order, wouldn't it. Some of the others got fed up enough to kick him pretty hard and he kept coming back. 'Cause, you know, he's into that. He cut it out when he wasn't single any more.]
[- yeah, sure. Some people are wired such that they are - sexually entertained by - imagining, or actually experiencing, things like pain, humiliation, fear, restraint, and other stuff that isn't universally popular. This is admittedly peculiar prima facie, but - do people on dath ilan eat spicy food, or ride roller coasters, or like weighted blankets, or play games that involve revealing embarrassing secrets -]
[...I'm sure some psion somewhere has at least considered working on a power to get people more masochistic to solve relationship compatibility issues but it's not the sort of thing you hear about happening all the time, plenty of people are subs and plenty of subs are masochists all on their own. To varying degrees; porn tends to disproportionately feature the varietal with more extreme tastes.]
[So according to you there is not a known process that designates people as subs, or any known process that turns them into masochists, it just happens. Can psions not make people not be masochists? Can most subs not afford that, even if they'd only have to pay for that work to be done once?]
[I don't expect there to be any psions working on reducing masochism because that doesn't... seem obviously desirable? Anyone who could afford that would also be able to afford mage healing insurance coverage to get patched up if their dom overshot. People designate themselves as subs or doms - or switches, or even nondynamics.]
[Is there by any chance an early guessing program where some prettier teenagers who'd be more valuable to dominants get told they're probably submissives and then exposed to particular forms of carefully crafted pornography. Does anybody ever decide to stop being a submissive and what kind of explicit or implicit obstacles do they face in that.]
[...I guess particularly creative child abuse grooming might take that form but otherwise no. And yeah, people sometimes say they're a sub for a while and then decide that actually they need to change their paperwork when they're like seventeen or even early twenties, sometimes even later if they're older people and got wedged into being subs because they're women and grew up when those were more conflated, and they do have to do some annoying bureaucracy and might get weird looks but it's not intentionally difficult or anything.]
[Isabella, listen to me. Your world is not - coherent. Human beings or general intelligent agents can successfully band together and create 'police forces' that stop horrible things from happening. Moons don't grant people mage and psion powers. There is not naturally an enormous class of people who want to be hurt, that is not how evolutionary biology works, organisms do not evolve to want to be damaged. Airplanes that serve better meals attract more customers, and people who run airplane flights know that, and they put good meals on board in order to attract gainful-trades away from their competitors. Nothing in your world makes any sense, nothing is at the balancing point of the fitness gradients, and something is preventing the people inside from noticing, and I can see it because I'm not a native. Have you never read any stories like that? No, probably you haven't, people here probably aren't allowed to write them. And I don't know what it feels like from the inside to end up being transformed by lunar forces or whatever into a 'masochist', but from what I saw on the video the pain is still there she was screaming and bleeding and this world is not interestingly different it is broken it is a horror and something has to be done.]
[The moon is not letting you think about it. Or whatever strange feature of this world allows lunar eclipses to grant powers. It's just a wild guess but I can see it and I can see you not seeing it. And I'm going to write up as much of this as I can before the next lunar eclipse hits me in case I can't think about it any more after that.]
[You do not need to take the day off to prevent me from damaging this world. I don't know how to do that, and would do a great deal more research before considering anything that violated deontology.]
[You can write whatever you want, though I don't think your English install will have given you much of a typing speed. I do not think I'm being prohibited from thinking thoughts, I think I just grew up in a very different situation from you and have different assumptions and expectations, and I would for that reason kind of like more information about what you mean by 'violating deontology' before I decide that I'm definitely not taking the rest of the day off.]
[You've been kind to me. For today, I won't do anything with the intent of affecting your larger world without checking in with you first, and more likely not at all. Deontology is complicated, and I'm too worn to explain the details, but I think that much of a promise should let you finish your work without fear. We do have logical-decision-theory where I come from and I'm not going to break the Algorithm.]
[I'm almost afraid to ask what you have instead, but that is a surprisingly good candidate for being a large part of the problem around here. If your reality-layer has anyone who is good at math or economics I'd expect them to be able to recognize the importance very quickly.]
[I will be reading about a lot of things, rest assured.]
Among Thellim's first thoughts, now that she's thinking again, is that maybe she can figure out how to present as some kind of superdominant - a third sex in the system, one that makes all the current dominants want to obey her. This shouldn't be easy if this world is in a nearly-inexploitable-equilibrium, but that's just what so many visible features aren't in. Maybe nobody here can imagine that possibility without the moon driving them mad, for the same reason they can't think about optimizing heritable traits without running amok with kitchen knives.
Having the dominants obey her wouldn't actually solve the problem where the moon is altering half the population to seek out painful experiences. But it would be a start on whatever actually needs doing.
Are the children saner before they go through their eclipses? It's funny to think of taking over this world with a faction of eleven-year-olds but that doesn't mean it's a bad idea. Thellim might not have been on the competitive frontier of adulthood at age eleven, but she could still perform gainful labor, and might have been able to do all sorts of jobs if adults hadn't been doing them already.
[Sure. Maybe I should recommend you fiction or something so you can see more of the - moving parts of the world - but later. Bye!]
Snacks available in Isabella's apartment include:
- potato chips
- peanut butter pretzels
- trail mix
- oreos
- parmesan crisps
- apples
- bananas
- string cheese
- seedy crackers
- guacamole
- seven layer dip
All right, back to work. She doesn't really - want to - but she has to. It's just occurred to Thellim that she herself may only have months remaining before her "nearest lunar eclipse to twelfth birthday" hits her and possibly turns her into a submissive. She might have only that long to find a solution on at least an individual level, and if she can't find one, she would have to - pretty seriously reconsider suicide again. Maybe she just drew an unusually bad world to end up in on her first draw from a permadeath roulette.
Assuming, once again, that all her wild theorizing is correct at all.
If their first lunar eclipse has substantial effects on kids not being turned into mages and psions, somebody ought to have studied that, right? Somebody? Please?
Not quite tracking the distinction between the way she's thinking about Earth herself, versus the way Isabella talks about Earth, the first thing that Thellim types into Google is "effect of moon on personality".
[So I know you don't do this here - I know you don't, because I searched it - but in dath ilan we get administered temporary-mind-affecting-drugs once our brains have stabilized enough to be safe to poke a bit, so we can learn what it's like if our brain starts to malfunction and operate safely inside it. We're also trained to recognize common syndromes of insanity like psychosis, both in ourselves and in others.]
[I tried looking up what your world knows, if anything, about the effect of the moon on personality. I found a... fascinating... Network repository that I've been reading through for the last while. It turns out there's a whole suite of effects of planetary bodies on personality, besides just lunar eclipses - mostly having to do with the exact position of planets at people's time of birth, or possibly conception. However, natives of this world can't think about that subject without the underlying magic of this world rendering them locally insane. They can think about it at all, and notice the effects of the planets, but not think - validly. I'm concerned that you won't and possibly can't believe me, and the syndrome does not look exactly like psychosis or any single drug I've experienced. But I am very sure that any native of Earth who tries to think about the subject matter you call 'astrology' gets hit by the equivalent of a medium-strength mind-affecting-drug.]
[I'm not sure what you mean by 'fake' - the update my brain tried to do in the background was 'half the people can't think about it sanely and half the people can't see it exists' - but the pattern so far has not suggested that the generalized-weird-phenomenon of magic will do things like reach in and fake your experimental results. So if you can direct me towards nice sane science research showing that 'astrology is fake', that might update me? I guess in retrospect I should have been looking at places other than that one Network repository, but I was trying to analyze exactly what the distorted pattern of reasoning was. For some reason it did not occur to me that there'd be a large solid body of science on astrology that a Network repository on the topic just wouldn't think to mention at all.] Not that this fact itself would be suspicious or anything.
[So, uh, sometimes people believe things that aren't true? Astrology is just one example, it's not specifically celestial-body-related, if that's what has you crediting it, some people believe that you can find water by waving sticks around or that there are ghosts or fairies or something. Plus religion in general, which is a different category socially but would probably look similar to you. Probably someone has done scientific research on this that would look convincing to someone seriously entertaining the hypothesis but you could start with Wikipedia on astrology? They'll have citations.]
[Rogerroger. I'll investigate that for next time, then. I do apologize for the frustration you must be experiencing, if I am somehow interpreting this world in a completely wrong way based on my bad priors and this is perfectly obvious to anyone who grew up here and knows all about it,] as opposed to being able to actually see what is there and notice the enormous collection of nothing but anomalies and other people not noticing those anomalies. But Thellim is trying to keep the other hypothesis in mind as a possibility, in its own separated mental compartment.
(There is no nearby separated mental compartment for it somehow being perfectly fine to do what Thellim saw in that video. She contemplated making a compartment like that, briefly, but decided that this was not in fact a sane or healthy or wise or good thing to do. There are limits to charitable hypotheses.)
[Does it change anything if I say that people in dath ilan also make prediction errors, but even when they are making very bad prediction errors, I have literally never seen anybody in dath ilan reason about anything the way that people here are reasoning about 'astrology', and that there are literally dozens of blatant stereotypical inference errors per page that somebody should have noticed if everyone's perceptions weren't switched off?]
[We do not have 'superstitious people' per se because we do not have pervasive generalized-lunar-eclipse 'astrological' phenomena driving us insane. Some people do have neurological syndromes related to, for example, serotonin imbalances, which we can cure by addressing those serotonin imbalances, and people say in advance that they'd want to be cured if that happened to them and are afterward thankful for having been cured. I agree that there is a legitimate ethical question about whether a new person with new interests is created by the insanity and then wronged by its cure, but I disagree that the answer to this ethical question is obvious, or that only a 'totalitarian system' would more greatly respect the interests of the prior person who existed before the schizophrenia and had opinions about what to do in that case.]
[I'm not sure if SSRIs affect superstition but I have not anecdotally heard of it. At any rate, people who believe in astrology or ghosts or whatever are generally perfectly functional outside of being weird about wanting to know whether people are Geminis and avoiding creepy houses and they are not experiencing discrete psychiatric episodes as we understand them.]
[And you don't think it's odd that people's otherwise totally functional reasoning abilities suddenly switch off when applied to particular topics that seem potentially related to the bizarre power-granting lunar eclipses.]
Thellim is going to make a list of all the things that people are 'superstitious' about. Maybe there's a pattern. She bets nobody here has tried that.
['Ghosts' seems like a larger concept than the braintalk or English is giving me directly, so I don't know specifically what goes wrong. But in a broad sense, if you are otherwise thinking clearly, you expect to do worse on average by having more false beliefs? Maybe somebody tries to buy not-real ghosts using real money... do I need to walk through the coherence theorems for cases like that?]
[You need to stop leaning so hard on theorems in general when predicting human behavior but as it happens we have people who believe in ghosts and do not try to purchase them and if they did they'd probably stop at a reasonable hobby expenditure amount of ghost purchase and it would not be more debilitating than liking expensive wine or something.]
[So... the magic makes the environment less harsh than dath ilan in a way that means people here evolved less refined reasoning capacity, rather than them being directly disturbed by lunar forces? Your environment seems very aggressive when it comes to, for example, successfully exploiting my taste buds with extra-salty snacks while I was distracted.]
[If you want me to lock up the snacks so only the resident eclipsed can eat them then I can do that but I'd, you know, rather not. Please stop attributing large scale trends to magic all the time. There are fewer than two hundred and fifty thousand unlocked eclipsed in the entire world and most of us are under twenty-five and don't know how to do much yet. It's possible the environment is less harsh than dath ilan but my first guess is that you start disappearing people if they start seriously considering crystal healing instead of allowing them to wander around putting quartzes in their purse or whatever, people-disappearing habits would certainly be a harshness of the environment.]
[I... genuinely do not know what we would do if somebody in our world suddenly started exhibiting the reasoning pattern I saw in the astrology repository, though we would have to do something if they started exhibiting other behavior patterns in your world, like them stabbing people if they thought too hard about eugenics. I don't think somebody like that would end up happy enough to have kids, so you're correct regardless that the genes would be disadvantaged in our world more than yours. I suppose if that's gone on long enough, it's a non-directly-magical explanation for why people here would have generally less refined reasoning capabilities] and how Isabella isn't more INCREDIBLY DISTURBED by that concept Thellim cannot understand, oh wait she can it's magic. [The part where you go insane if you try to control your own population genetics is totally magic, though, just saying. Sorry if I seem to be harping on that.]
[- okay, uh, people don't actually "start stabbing people if they think too hard about eugenics", perhaps I didn't emphasize enough how much I was oversimplifying. Do you want me to go into that more right now or when I get home? You could read the Wikipedia page on eugenics.]
[No, I mean that if I go around reading all the Wikipedia articles about knowledge that drives your people insane, I may be fine now but I'd be gambling a lot on either that quality sticking to me through your next lunar eclipse, or on being able to solve my local version of that problem in the next few months.]
Isabella JUST GOT THROUGH SAYING that otherwise functional people suddenly can't reason consistently about 'ghosts' and YOU TOTALLY HAVE INFORMATION THAT DRIVES PEOPLE INSANE, are you not even allowed to notice THE CONFLICT BETWEEN THE SPECIFIC PROPOSITION AND THE GENERAL ONE.
Thellim takes some deep breaths and calms herself. This is not actually Isabella's fault in any way.
Also - Thellim needs to keep reminding herself about this, because she has just had to defend her own views in argument and you need to achieve a very high mental skill level before that stops having at least temporary effects on you - also, Thellim herself could be the wrong one here. Well, it's increasingly hard to see how Isabella could be right. But that doesn't mean Thellim herself is right, or that she is not pervasively misunderstanding some things due to total nonacquaintance with this dimension, perhaps in a way that would justly annoy Isabella especially if Thellim gets strident about it.
If this was a book in Science Maniac Verrez then Thellim would be managing to be wrong about nearly but not quite everything while missing key clues in Isabella's presentation because Thellim was annoyed and actually Thellim has been very quickly assembling a very large body of conjoined hypotheses in a way that is not completely nonreminiscent of Verrez at his worst. Maybe it's fine if you do that in real life instead of in a humorous young-adult novel but...
...okay, no, you probably can't get away with that in real life either. P(A /\ B) <= P(A).
[Isabella, I apologize if I've been running too quickly with my hypotheses in a way that is obviously stupid if you're a native. I believe I got caught up in the heat of argument and started stringing ideas together more quickly than I could realistically expect to do correctly after being transported to a new dimension. It - does still seem fairly likely to me that something is wrong in a very general sense covering at least some of the things jumping out at me, but I shouldn't be sounding confident so early of anything more specific than that. I will follow your advice about looking up astrology on Wikipedia, and try to learn more than the very little I actually know about this place.]
There. Now she is not totally being Verrez on an unusually silly day anymore, and is once again being a virtuous, mentally disciplined person.
Some of the papers are behind paywalls!
Okay. Thellim will not overreact to this. It is not proof of magical insanity. They don't do it in dath ilan and would by local custom consider that to be Not Done and disqualify the papers as real science. But that could conceivably vary between worlds in a way that doesn't violate coherence theorems. Producing science costs money and selling it could be profitable, that is a totally reasonable thing to do differently in another world.
[It is the general practice of my people that we try to develop bad theories even when we know they're going to be wrong, so that after the predictions turn out wrong, we can understand what we were wrong about. I hope that you can take it in that spirit when I say that my current bad theory, entertained only for the sake of making predictions that I know will prove flawed, is that the moon doesn't let you do science.]
[Well you see, or rather, as my people would see, there is a certain probability-theoretic concept lying at the center of all epistemology - which either English doesn't have terminology for, or the person who put English into my head happened to not know, or it just isn't in my head for any other reason, but under the circumstances I am guessing the first case - which concept is also the thing that experimenters report in a sane world - called by my people the 'likelihood function'. Conceptually, it is an extremely simple, natural, unambiguous mathematical object which combines by multiplication across different experiments. For example, if there are two hypotheses H1 and H2, and the first experiment reports evidence E1 which is 1/3 likely given H1 and 1/4 likely given H2, and experiment two reports observation E2 which is 1/2 likely given H1 and 1/8 likely given H2, we can combine the two likelihood functions to say that the evidence is 1/6 likely given H1 and 1/32 likely given H2. That is not an oversimplification, it is how that small discrete case of likelihood functions validly works.]
[I have been trying to entertain the hypothesis that there is some clever useful thing that 'p-values' and 'confidence intervals' are doing, but I have been looking up how to combine them, and they do not combine in any simple or sane way, and that disadvantage alone for purposes of accumulating knowledge should be decisive. And also the underlying epistemology seems, to put it mildly, deranged, and allows you to attribute different 'p-values' to the same piece of evidence depending on the experimenter's state of mind. It is likewise possible to measure an electric charge and get a '90% confidence interval' of [green, purple] if you have a procedure that generates a 95% confidence interval and then you add a small chance of substituting [green, purple] to the output of the previous procedure. And it just seems really really conspicuous that something ripped the concept of likelihood functions out of your world's epistemology, and an enormous weird ad-hoc pseudo-mathematical edifice had to grow up around the gaping sucking void this left behind. And I just don't see what kind of fact I could be missing about your world that could possibly contextualize this, because this is about math itself, not the empirics of any particular science. I am trying to be a good epistemically humble reasoner and keep in mind alternative hypotheses like 'well, it's more likely that this "happened for any reason" than "happened because of magic", maybe there is just a giant conspiracy of journal editors who suppress all mention of likelihood functions, all across the multiple scientific fields whose papers I tried to check'. But it really really seems realistically more likely that a world which permits power-granting lunar eclipses can also permit some generalized Eater of the Concept of Likelihood Functions.]
[Thank you for attending my stupid lecture about my wrong hypothesis. How has your day been going?]
[I can't talk about much of my work, some of it's classified or just gated on not wanting to foul up other precogs. My lunch is tasty though. Uh. Somehow my main reaction to that is that I had imagined dath ilan would be better at variable names than calling things "H1" and "H2". Uh, I acknowledge there are some issues with how scientific experiments are conducted and reported but it seems like an exaggeration to say that we can't do science, let alone to blame the moon. Have you tried reading the Wikipedia page on statistics?]
[No, but I can do that next. Is there some special merit or virtue of Wikipedia I don't know about? In my world,] you know, the one you keep calling a monoculture, [there is not one special repository of knowledge that is better than all the other repositories of knowledge on the Network.]
[I happen to be personally fond of Wikipedia. It's not perfect, sometimes there's vandalism and incompleteness and edit wars, but for your purposes - breadth-first citation-backed neutrally written crossreferenced content with the editing history available if you want that and the whole thing's free and you only have to learn how to navigate the one site, it's basically ideal. When you Google things you have to sift out bad results or you wind up believing in astrology and you don't have the context to do that well, though if Wikipedia fails you in some way by all means fall back on a more general search.]
[Is this a potential crux? Where, if I can show you that likelihood functions are extremely basic and useful and an incredibly direct consequence of probability axioms - after you get home, that is - and also your world's diamond-standard Wikipedia article on statistics proves to have no mention of them, then you might agree with me that something odd could be going on whether or not it has anything directly to do with magic?]
[Uh, I am not actually in the mood for a math lesson, but even presuming I was and presuming you demonstrated that this was the case that might get me to... email my old math teacher, or my brother's professor maybe, and if they don't know either suggest you try to write it up for a math journal. It's not actually that weird to me that you might have run into math we haven't, you seem to be from a very mathy planet and sometimes basic-seeming things take a while to think up, like hallways, or like can openers and screwdrivers having been invented after cans and screws.]
Isabella, your world has, for example, CARS. Admittedly, both the invention of cars and the invention of likelihood functions are behind the curtain of the past infohazard, in dath ilan. But Thellim is pretty sure that LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS come before INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES on any reasonable technology lattice. That would be like discovering Maxwell's Equations before you invented the pre-mathematical concept of natural selection!
...maybe it's a very nonmathy planet?
Maybe the math got Eaten.
No that's not right the p-values stuff was much more complicated than likelihood functions, they couldn't execute the arithmetic operations if math in general was being eaten in anything like a natural order of complexity.
[Not a crux, then, oh well. Shall I plunge back into reading the Network, starting with the Wikipedia page on statistics and focusing more heavily on Wikipedia after that, so I can come up with, by your lights, ever more deranged misunderstandings of your poor innocent world?]
[...you will have to tell me more about fiction matchmaking later. People just, uh, read what sounds fun or interesting or that their friends are reading or that is considered an important cultural touchstone. My criteria for picking something out for you is that it can't have any sex scenes or be too depressing and should not have any fantasy elements because those will confuse you and since you also have to be able to easily get it off the internet without much internet knowhow it has to be out of copyright and I think given these constraints I recommend "Pride and Prejudice" by Jane Austen. It will probably still confuse you - among other things there are some mentions of religion and the entire thing is set in another country two hundred years ago so the etiquette and stuff is all very different - but I'm hoping it will not horrify you and you can ask me about it at teatime.]
That is a weird thing to get as your Unique Dath Ilan Profession in a Portal Fantasy but okay then. Not necessarily a bad thing for Thellim in terms of her ability to support herself if she doesn't get any mage or psion powers! Though, of course, she doesn't actually know any of the fiction of this world, the people are very strange to her, and she'd be advertising for a profession that doesn't exist...
Pride and Prejudice is about a family in a much less technologically advanced time of Earth - no computers, no cars, no electricity. Despite what would be fairly clear cues to a modern Earthly reader that not all of the Bennett sisters are definitely submissive, it is assumed that they are because they're girls, and they can't inherit their house; they appear to be of a social class that can't just go get a job, or at least can't just go get most jobs, so one of them has to marry someone rich and support her sisters. In spite of this the narrative is supportive of attempts to find personally suitable doms rather than agreeing to the first financially suitable proposal to come one's way and it's definitely clear on doms being desirable in ways other than the monetary. When Isabella has teatime she tells Thellim where she can find the 2005 film to stream if she'd like another angle on the same plot with more supporting visuals and body language and costuming and whatnot, though she cautions the adaptation is not historically perfect.
Isabella comes home at six with a bag of Chinese takeout and lays it out. "Take whatever you want, I like all of this and will eat whatever you don't," she says.
As of the earlier chapters, Pride and Prejudice is about people who are terribly alone in a world that does not support their existence. With rare or no exceptions, they don't communicate their goals to each other or cooperate in achieving them; they live in a world where every aspect of society is configured harmfully and nobody considers alternative structures for fixing them; the only numbers they use are for money; their goals are simple and uniform and tiny, and poorly pursued even so; nobody ever explicitly invokes any mental skill or thinks about how to think; it does not really seem like they are having fun, nor do they have a goal of obtaining fun, nor any notion that fun is something they are missing...
That's not even the disturbing part.
Pride and Prejudice doesn't do the thing that Thellim thinks a book is meant to do. One of the points of books existing is that you can get deep, true information about the characters' thoughts in a way that is surpassed by only your very closest oath-of-privacy friends in real life. Thellim is getting less information about these character's minds than she expects, less than she'd get from hearing a real person talk on a walkway, and the disturbing thing is the sense that the missing info is not there. With the exception of occasional flashes for Elizabeth, the author has made zero attempt to even try to depict Earthlings as having reflection, self-observation, a fire of inner life; most characters in Pride and Prejudice bear the same relationship to human minds as a stick figure bears to a photograph. People, among other things, have the property of trying to be people; the characters in Pride and Prejudice have no visible such aspiration. Real people have concepts of their own minds, and contemplate their prior ideas of themselves in relation to a continually observed flow of their actual thoughts, and try to improve both their self-models and their selves. It's impossible to imagine any of these people, even Elizabeth, as doing that thing Thellim did a few hours ago, where she noticed she was behaving like Verrez and snapped out of it. Just like any particular Verrez always learns to notice he is being Verrez and snap out of it, by the end of any of his alts' novels.
There's a paragraph that jumped out at her, at the end of Chapter 1: "Mr. Bennet was so odd a mixture of quick parts, sarcastic humour, reserve, and caprice, that the experience of three-and-twenty years had been insufficient to make his submissive understand his character. Her mind was less difficult to develop. She was a woman of mean understanding, little information, and uncertain temper. When she was discontented, she fancied herself nervous. The business of her life was to get her daughters married; its solace was visiting and news." Thellim is still trying to figure out all the ways this paragraph is deeply disturbing, and has only analyzed some of it. One element, of course, is that the author is - looking down on their characters to a greater extent than it is permissible to look down even on imaginary people. Even if someone's mental skills are objectively, measurably, quantifiably that far below yours, you do not describe them like that. You don't read other people describing them like that. It would not be good for you; it is not done. Readers laugh at Verrez's antics but you never get the impression that Verrez's author thinks of Verrez like - like that. But that's just the lesser problem of morality; the deeper problem of cognition is that the author doesn't seem to think that Mr. Bennet or Mrs. Bennet would notice for themselves what the author believes about them.
There is a half-joking half-serious dath ilani proverb, about all infinite recursions really being only three levels deep; where the serious part is that a lot of human cognitive recursion only goes three levels deep. This book seems to be written as if that number was one, permitting only that the author imagine characters, and not that the author imagine characters who imagine themselves.
Sorry, but this book is also horrifying! In an entirely new and different way from all the other ways Earth is horrifying.
Thellim doesn't complain about any of this to Isabella during teatime, because Thellim has started to notice a model of herself as wilding out about every single aspect of Earth, and isn't comfortable with that. At all, never mind how it probably looks to Isabella. If Thellim were in a book and somebody else were reading that book, they'd already be complaining about the Thellim character being stereotyped in that way. Well, this Thellim character at least aspires to be better than that version of the Thellim character, and is not blind to what anybody reading her book would see.
And if Thellim were writing a novel, she'd bestow self-awareness on her own characters the same way, because otherwise they wouldn't be realistic people. But the entities in Pride and Prejudice aren't like that. It is very visible to Thellim. It is very disturbing. The possibility that maybe actual Earth people could be like this is very very disturbing. But maybe this is more of a young-adult novel meant to illustrate how not to think, and Elizabeth turns into a real person by the time the story ends.
Thellim will not make up a lot of hypotheses about it yet. She will finish this novel and then read at least one other fiction novel first. She's pretty sure that's what her readers would be telling her to do, at this point.
Thellim still hasn't finished reading by the time Isabella comes home, in part because at one point Thellim had to pause to search online for whether Earthlings had talked about themselves being self-aware, or having the property that her language install tries to translate into English as 'consciousness'. It is not yet certain that Thellim's own continued existence is entirely unlike a story in some generalized way; and for some or all Earthlings to lack consciousness could be a clever little plot twist to imply that The Video was surprise! a morally neutral event. Google's answer however was that Earthlings seem very confused about themselves being conscious; they talk about a 'mysterious redness of red', and other phenomena of apparent internal inexplicability that Thellim has grown up thinking about as having perfectly straightforward explanations in terms of what various cognitive algorithms feel like from inside. But Earthlings do seem to be conscious... or at least, some Earthling 'philosophers' were conscious at some point, because where else would the confused essays come from originally, even if others are just imitating them now. That would usually be a wacky thought, but Thellim is worried about all the talk of 'p-zombies' she's come across. It's an obvious thought that if somebody goes around talking about how consciousness has zero causal effects on behavior, perhaps that is because they are not conscious themselves. She couldn't find any experiments on whether being submissive correlates with belief in p-zombies. But if the real premise of this world is that dominants have inner life but not submissives, and that's why submissives can be configured to seek out pain even while they scream from it... well, that's better than the alternative, she supposes. But Thellim would personally rather not live inside that kind of universe.
It doesn't seem likely, though. In real life, there ought to be a drastic difference in behavior, after severing the algorithms underlying the reportable experience of qualia. It's not like Thellim failed to notice that difference for the characters in Pride and Prejudice. And searching for 'cognitive reflection testing' turned up, well, it's sort of horrifying that this test is being given to adults rather than eight-year-olds, but nonetheless there's no 'statistically significant' difference in average scores between doms and subs. Though the fact that Thellim is pretty sure every adult in dath ilan maxes out this test, and Earth does not, is rapidly assuming status as her leading alternative hypothesis for the proximal source of everything wrong with Earth that isn't the magic. Yes, she's trying not to construct theories so quickly, but she can't actually not organize her sense impressions, she can only avoid believing those theories too much and throwing them at Isabella.
She's reading science at the moment Isabella gets in, in fact. It's embarrassing that she was doing that instead of her literary homework. (The thought of quickly tabbing back to the book to hide the evidence never crosses Thellim's mind; dath ilani do ever lie and hide even for small sad reasons but this is not an occasion for that.)
"Thank you," Thellim says to Isabella, and samples some of everything from the Chinese takeout.
"Ideas connected to other ideas in a pattern that you can't escape until somebody else gets you out of it or you need to go to the bathroom. You know the concept even if you don't have a word for it, I've seen Wikipedia." It somehow had not occurred to Thellim that there would be Austen fans, or that this must be a much-beloved book if you recommend it to a stranger from another dimension trying to understand Earth.
Maybe the characters/characterization gets much much less disturbing in later chapters.
"I... feel reluctant to burden you with it. I've done too much of that already. I'm mostly hopeful that what I'm reacting to is just a literary convention, on the order of an alien seeing some images from what your people call 'anime' and concluding that Earthlings can't draw and have distorted ideas about physics. Is there fiction meant to depict - real people rather than stylized ones?"
"I'd have to look it up to remember the exact phrasing but 'She was a submissive who understood little and knew little and had poor impulse control' is not how any dath ilani would ever describe a character, and anybody who had problems resembling that in real life would not be completely oblivious to the fact, and presumably submissives in reality have inner lives that do not entirely revolve around judging doms for suitability - if this book is not in some sense literary anime I will be very disturbed."
"...wow, the implications for dath ilani fiction are sure something. Uh, there are books that spend more time on characters' inner lives, though usually not very many characters per book, some character is nearly always going to be casually drawn and characters in general are not going to, uh... act... dath ilani... about their reasoning habits and self-assessments."
"How reasoning habits and self-assessments look on Earth instead of home is some of the info I need. The parts I'm reading don't have enough detail drawn in to see reasoning habits and self-assessments - does it not seem to you like the characters don't think or act the way real people would? I'm asking from a painter's viewpoint rather than an interpretive viewpoint, one that would look at a stick figure and say 'Those arms are much too thin!' instead of 'Ah, somebody used a straight line to indicate this arm.'"
"The characters don't seem particularly unrealistic to me, I was deliberately avoiding anything with fantasy or sci-fi stuff or weird artistic conventions that might be distracting, but it's possible there are literary behaviors that I'm so used to that they don't stick out to me that you can't interpret at all, which suggests maybe I should be recommending you stuff for kids, which has to be accessible to readers with less experience with our tropes?"
No. She's not giving up hope that fast. You cannot build an industrial civilization out of stick figures like these. "So one of my theories is that this is meant to be something like - humor? Social commentary? Satire? English has words for all of those things so you should know what they are? But I don't understand the baseline and am seeing everything literally so I don't know which parts are meant to satirize?"
"Austen was sure doing some social commentary. Unfortunately people mostly don't write extremely pedestrian literary fiction in which nothing at all is being said about the contents. ...or if they do it's not something I read and therefore not something I can recommend, and/or it has sex scenes which might send you into conniptions. I guess I could tell you which pages to skip to avoid sex scenes in an otherwise very straightforward romance novel."
"Just the fact that it is social commentary at all is much more hopeful than if it was meant to be an adventure that obeys all the generalizations of reality while being somewhat low-probability inside it, like a novel about a successful world-changing startup, say. I ask this in a spirit where you're supposed to be very careful not to let my question influence your answer: would you say that this novel is socially commenting on people with overly narrow goals and who don't reflect on themselves enough?"
"Right, and the people in that social class did not literally actually really talk and think like that. Austen is exaggerating it so that people can see it more clearly, and I was disturbed by this in much the same way I was initially disturbed by the size of anime eyes relative to anime mouths because no corresponding stylistic convention exists in dath ilan. Not permitting question influence on answer, does that sound right?" Right?? Right???
"- I mean, I'm not going to tell you 'ah, actually Jane Austen was a mindreading psion and based all these characters on real people and her main contribution to the book was her charming prose', she was making stuff up, she was making it legible and interesting to her audience, but I think comparing it to Sailor Moon having eyes the size of dinner plates it's relatively mild, but I may be incorrectly estimating how realistic your cartoons are if you are even allowed to have cartoons, or how, uh, I don't even know what adjective I want, I may have an incorrect model of your novels."
She is not giving up that easily. Not on an entire planet full of people.
Thellim goes back to the computer. Back to Chapter 1. "Sentence one. 'It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single dominant in possession of a good fortune, must be in want of a submissive.' Remember your concerns about dath ilani monoculture? If this is actually a universal belief your people would seem like they had to be much, much more unified than ours would be around any social opinion in this class."
"I'm an alien. I guessed that it was an exaggeration but I have no way of knowing how much exaggeration, which means that instead of getting the intended reader experience of a funny distance between the description and a known reality, my reading experience is of a description of a universe even worse than this one and which I desperately would not want to live inside. Sentence two. 'However little known the feelings or views of such a dominant may be on his first entering a neighbourhood, this truth is so well fixed in the minds of the surrounding families, that he is considered the rightful property of some one or other of their daughters.' I can't easily describe everything that would have to go wrong inside somebody's mind simultaneously to produce that mental behavior in real life, but I'm guessing that real Earthlings do not - taking things exactly as literally as an alien might take the first paragraph - have an attractive stranger walk into their neighborhood and immediately transport themselves into the alternate mental universe where their daughter has a socially acknowledged entitlement to the stranger which everybody else will respect. There are tendencies like this in minds and in dath ilan we learn at around age eight or so to start fighting them, and I can guess that in Earth there is no training like that until you are twenty-five and frontal cortex has fully matured, because that is around the ability gap implied by some cognitive testing stuff I happened to look at. Which means that Austen is humorously exaggerating tendencies that I would expect to be in fact louder in Earth than in dath ilan. If you take the gap between dath ilani mental life and Earthling mental life and then add Austen's exaggeration on top of that, what you get is a compounded gap that I cannot decode as satire and which just reads as an incredibly, incredibly scary universe to be portaled into, full of entities who are probably not sentient."
"We, uh, don't expressly train that, at least not in general, I guess some disciplines might wind up with a class you'd recognize. Okay, yeah, I don't think fiction is going to work unless I'm sitting with you the whole time. I should have my brother over this weekend just so we can get some division of labor on things like watching movies with you."
"There should exist a category of written fiction containing people with realistic mental lives! Part of the whole point of written fiction is that it gives you a peek into mental lives which movies can't give you! What kind of monoculture do you have if nobody is allowed to write fiction like that?"
"Thellim, that's not actually a clever dig because you don't know what you're talking about. People can write whatever they want. Write one yourself and post it on the internet if you feel like it, nobody will stop you. Maybe people will even like it. It happens that I have not read anything that I can, given this tightened set of constraints, suggest to you as a completely nonmisleading demonstration of what Earthlings are like which isn't trying to be clever or funny or sexy or speculative or satirical or anything. Maybe it's a thriving genre I haven't been exposed to because it's written principally in Chinese! Maybe it's trendy this year and I haven't seen any because I mostly like older works! Millions of novels are published every year, and even if I read them all somehow it could be a thing in magazine short stories or some website I've never seen!"
"I'm sorry. It's understandable if you can't show me any books like that because they contain - realistic submission. There's some kind of weird irony here, this used to be exactly what I did for a living and even though you have a word 'matchmaker' you apparently don't have somebody who reads lots of books and who you can pay a small fee to answer this question."
"Ha, I wanted to be a mate matchmaker when I was younger - any matchmaking between people and other people is an inherently centralized profession, since it generates value proportional to the three-halves power of the number of people you know in sufficient detail assuming standard variance in match qualities, so it's inherently centralized, so a few leading practitioners can capture most of the trade's gains instead of it being distributed evenly among competitors, so half the matchmakers dream of becoming a wealthy mate matchmaker. And the other half dream of matching... huh, you don't have a word that means 'employer or employee but just cooperating without a control asymmetry' which I guess makes sense for Earth. But of course only one percent can be in the top one percent, and I didn't have much luck proving myself by setting up romances among the customers I knew from matching people with books, even though that's relatively personality-revealing knowledge as matchmaking goes."
"Okay, if this is broadly typical of the information collected then I see where I was confused. Dating sites don't do the same thing as mate matchmakers. A dating site seems to collect standard question-answer information about you that you're willing to reveal to anybody who reads it, and relies on people going around reading it themselves. Mate matchmaking efficiently centralizes and professionalizes the work of learning info about people, at some cost in the matchmaker's imperfect proxying of customers' reactions to that info, but it also means there can be more info per person. Much more importantly, it allows collection of the type of information that people wouldn't want to put on the Network, or reveal to somebody else before they'd gone on a first date or possibly ever."
It takes her several seconds to come up with something that doesn't give too much away about herself. "Suppose a woman likes a man to dress up in a particular erotic style in the bedroom. She may not want that information revealed to the world, and she may also not want it revealed to a man who definitely doesn't like to dress up that particular way."
"Traditions that build up momentum behind a logical algorithm's output, enforcement mechanisms that I doubt could exist here, ongoing monitoring, statistics showing that it works well enough. There's a professional guild of mate matchmakers and so far as secrecy oaths go they're considered level five Confessors. I wouldn't trust the secrecy oath of a level five Confessor with the fate of dath ilan, nonspecific stats say there have been violations at that level, but I'd feel cheerful about staking my mother's true life on it if there was a moderately good reason."
"Yeah, that didn't translate. In theory, you shouldn't be able to trust anyone without logical decision theory to explain how their decision and your decision can fit into your respective concepts of yourselves as sane people. But it's pretty clear from the emotions human beings have that they've been solving this problem over an evolutionary timescale that must far predate coherence theorems, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's enough for 'priests' to function. Though if I was just arriving on Earth for the first time I'd probably say something about the huge role that trust plays in a lot of economic flows and how weird it is that priests aren't more important."
Isabella snorts. Opens her packet of almond cookies from the restaurant and eats one and offers Thellim the other. "He's not a sub either, if you were specifically hoping for more on those, but I suppose if you don't want to take up correspondence with Jackson I could introduce you to my dad."
The words 'sub' and 'dad' in such proximity produce a queasy feeling in her, it is possible to avoid imagining that happening to her family but it takes effort and the prethoughts of the suppressed thought are still there. "I should probably avoid talking to subs until I've had more time to -" get used to the idea is not something she ever wants to do "- adapt to that fact being the case."
"Nondynamic. I'm so glad that's an option. That significantly decreases my wild-guess probability that the next lunar eclipse turns me into a dom or sub and oh right I need to talk with you about setting up suicide arrangements if that turns me into a sub. Preferably by knocking me out beforehand, having a psion detect it, and killing me before I can wake up if that happened. I don't want there to be a new version of me who's aware before she dies, she might start saying that she's okay being a submissive and then you'd have an ethical dilemma."
"You've got - what was the number, a hundred thousand psions? Small as a fraction of the population but it sounds quite large in absolute terms to me. There is a nontrivial chance that somebody has developed the skill and it beats committing suicide beforehand just to be sure. I realize the next place I wake up may be even less pleasant than this or that I might not wake up at all, but I'd take that over, say, a 40% chance of a 40% chance of being turned into a sub. Unless it looks like my existence is too important to your world to ethically die which... is a really upsetting thought I'd rather not think about right now though I acknowledge it is probable before tabling it."
('Tabling, why is the word for that tabling?' Thellim distracts herself.)
"I mean, sure, maybe there's somebody in another country who's picked it up, but I have no way to find them because this isn't a service people routinely use and if I looked for it some of the people advertising it would not even be psions. People do not suddenly become subs on their eclipses, anyway, there's no sudden discontinuity in kids figuring themselves out around them, many are stably confident earlier or uncertain later and then there's people like Alex."
"I'll need to research that further but... thank you, that sounds somewhat reassuring if it is true. Let me also guess, you think I'm not reacting correctly to the concept of what a submissive really is because I do not understand what that is like from the inside or how it really works in people."
"Yeah, it's not about role-altering, it's specifically about becoming a sub. Becoming a dom is morally horrifying if it makes me want to do that to subs, but that is a manageable fear. One where, unlike the sub thing, I can think about tradeoffs without that causing huge internal stresses and a core fallback which unfortunately also says 'Don't be a sub'. Oh, point of honor, I agree to be bound by Alex's secrecy level three, but on future occasions you need to check that and wait for my clear formal response before telling me the thing, or the Algorithm does not include me thereby." The thought that this wasn't obvious to Isabella is very strange, but so's Earth.
"I mean, usually when he clears me to mention it it's just assumed that this is moderately personal information that people shouldn't bandy about, but you could not be understood to know that and we were just both tickled by the concept of regularly deployed secrecy levels. He presents as a dom if anyone asks."
"I shall note for the record - because I do sometimes feel that my world is probably being misunderstood, in much the same way that I might be misunderstanding, oh, say, your own - that we actually make a big deal about not being a monoculture which is why I'm sensitive about it, we know that's a risk and steer around it. I mention this now because if there was a non-defecting property of people that they felt socially pressured to hide, even if just to avoid puzzled questions, our monoculture alarms would be blaring loud warnings. Alex could say 'I'm nondynamic', add the syllables farsheth, and nobody would bug him about it even if they had no idea at all what he meant. This is one of the many ways that we are very very protective of individual and subcultural diversity."
"We avoid being a monoculture by recognizing that 'weird people' can get asked too many questions in a way that annoys them, and creating a standard protocol that they can very quickly use to avoid that situation, so as to decrease the social pressure against being non-defectingly diverse. The only circumstance under which I can imagine somebody being disappeared is if knowing that they existed posed a potential threat huge enough to make up for the damage to Civilizational structures that rely on public knowledge and collective monitoring of enforcement processes. Our first visitor ever from some unknown other world is the only plausible Exception coming to mind large enough to merit that, because of the sheer uncertainty surrounding everything about them, and previously I wouldn't have called that plausible."
"We have large quantities of what the language install claims 'art' and 'dancing' mean. I don't know exact quantities off the top of my head. Ass numbers... figure at least 20% of the population spends at least 10% of their income on art, so no less than 2% of GDP for art, and 10% of the roughly half of population in the right age range spends at least 2% of their time on dancing, so more than 0.1% of the collective lifetimes of slightly less than a billion people."
"Creepy is relative, both between worlds and to the individual in question. I will set him up with a very realistic book giving lots and lots of insight into people's thought processes, and he will be able to quickly figure out whether he wants to be around people like that. Unless it would be an appropriate non-defecting occasion to first give him a copy of Reckless Investor Miyalsvor and pretend that's what all dath ilani are like."
"Given the premise, I will be very surprised if there are not enough Earthlings who want to live in Civilization that we are not setting up many many experimental subcultures specialized for that. Including both subcultures that try to fix whatever traumatic errors your world has made that could lead to a sapient mind 'not liking math', and subcultures that accept whatever happened and work around it."
"Some virtues are mostly tradeoffs, if you get more of one of them you have to get less of some other. Some virtues are big enough gains for small enough costs that pretty much everybody should have them. Spending lots of time studying math is a tradeoff virtue. Noticing when circumstances have changed and changing those beliefs and policies that originally depended on the previous circumstances is a universal virtue."
Arguably she has not been doing that fast enough here, come to think; though in her defense being thrown into literally an entire different environment is enough invalidation that sheer cognitive speed is going to be an issue and trying to update all her emotions simultaneously could cause serious internal strain.
"I really don't know how to explain religion. Uh, we have an old story called the Odyssey where a dude gets lost on his way home from a war and takes twenty years to get home and his spouse rejects other suitors in the meantime even though they make this very difficult for her because she is holding on to the hope that he'll come home? And this is frequently understood as a virtue of hers."
"That's... also a virtue in dath ilan, if she loves him that much? That's not what adaptation is? Failure to adapt is if she incorrectly estimates the probability or keeps all her policies without trying to recalculate given the new probability, not if she decides a small probability is worth waiting for her love."
"Thanks, I appreciate that. Uh, billions of people believe in one of several popular - ontological frameworks - according to which the world was created by an entity or possibly a coalition of entities with supernatural powers who are often further postulated to be omnipotent and omniscient and omnibenevolent, though the details vary widely. There are other less common religions that I know less about but also postulate supernatural entities that do not make much sense."
"On priors I'd have considered that quite plausible, and alarming." Thellim quietly predicts: People think about it really badly with similar patterns as astrology, Isabella thinks it is all fake, all the specific claims listed on Wikipedia fail to fact-check according to Wikipedia's referenced papers.
"Obviously not omnibenevolent relative to my culture's utility function distribution, but your lunar-eclipse-related phenomena don't look like the unoptimized rest of Nature - they don't seem like stars exploding or waves in an ocean. Between natural selection, cognitive intelligence, and gradient balancing in multiagent equilibria, I'd have said it looks more like cognitive intelligence or gradient balancing."
"You think there's some differential equations where you solve them and end up with that? I do consider that very plausible, considering that such solutions are far from obvious at a first glance to bounded agents, that the thing did actually happen, and that powerful beings have no obvious reason to hide from you. Cognitive agency seems relatively more plausible, but I would not have predicted this world to exist in the first place, so it is very understandable if you laugh at my priors and ignore them instead of trying to update them on evidence they said was impossible."
"It looks to me like somebody did it on purpose, instead of, say, molecules bonded together and that's what came out. But I would not have guessed in advance that it would happen at all and what you're supposed to do in a case like that is throw out all the ideas that didn't predict the thing and go find some new ideas, instead of trying to make it fit into your old ideas."
"Billions of people consider their religious beliefs an important part of their lives, conflict between religious groups has driven many wars, religious discrimination is illegal in some contexts, display of mainstream-palatable religious belief is still very helpful to being elected to public office and in some social situations."
"With the exception of falling far enough off the multiagent-optimal boundary to end up in multiagent-value-destroying conflict, it seems hard to blame them for that? If you had disagreements about superpowerful beings watching everything your civilization was doing, that would be a very reasonable thing to form political factions about. Even dath ilan currently has epistemically-based political factions instead of being able to apply theorems about no common knowledge of disagreement, embarrassing as that may be."
"I mean, you can't, but you could perhaps be very destructive trying. If you actually think it's a good idea for dath ilani values to outright conquer Earth as opposed to just sending us math teachers I am not going to try to get in touch with them so that more of you can try."
"I think it's a good idea for dath ilani frameworks and institutions to exist on Earth, modulo points like it being possible that magical conditions here directly disallow science papers to use likelihood functions or people going insane if they think about heredity the wrong way. It will be a lot easier to figure that out, adapt frameworks, and import them, if it's Civilization doing it instead of me trying to reconstruct things from memory. The part where your version of civilization cannot just import all of our good ideas itself, the same way that dath ilan would just directly copy all your good ideas and pay you patent-gratuities on them, is something that - we're not just going to leave you like this. It's not in us to do that."
"It is apparently necessary, for unknown reasons that you might trust more if you understood the care that has gone into the frameworks giving us reason to trust them, that we causally screen off our past. The example we're given of what didn't happen is that nobody intercepted an extraterrestrial radio transmission and instantiated alien software which tried to anti-optimize our world and now we've got to screen off everything it could have causally contaminated. That is definitely not what happened but it is said to be reasonably indicative of what it is we now need to do. The past is not hidden. It is screened. If we're doing this at all right, anything that happened in prehistory should not be able to affect you. It is the present of Civilization that you would deal with, not its past, and that I do know and we do. not. do. the. bloodbath. thing. because. we. are. not. insane."
"Oh, I respect that. I'm realizing exactly how stupid it was that I said we should directly call my mother when I did not, for example, try to estimate the probability that anything your world touches starts lunar-eclipsing. Which is fine if it only does what you say it does, but not so fine if it does everything I think it does along with that."
"Yes. And I'm sorry if I'm being strident. But the notion that we screened off our past to hide a shameful massacre in which the present system was established is just - as wildly strange as mistakes I've no doubt been making to you. I know in detail why that can't be true and it is triggering all of the emotions that human beings have about shameful things being attributed to them that they did not do. For one thing, there are people in a very causally sealed environment who get ongoing info about Civilization and who could break the seal on the past if there was reason to do that. We know who gets sent in, we know approximately what values they have when they go in, we know the oaths they took, we do know they're still alive, and if there was nothing in there but a shameful massacre they'd just tell us that! For another, we did get told that the framework that made the decision was pretty similar to our current framework, especially in all the facets that aren't informative about the detailed past because they're just generically optimal solutions, and our current framework would not hide a shameful massacre. I don't know if I can convey to you how alien a thought that is. We have a list of all the considerations that screening the past is more important than, so people know there wasn't just an obvious missed consideration motivating the decision as a mistake, and the number two item on that list is that we're losing all the knowledge of our past errors. The present voters wouldn't go along with doing that on purpose, we know the past voters weren't so different because they did preserve convergent info about that particular decision and their value tradeoff list looks a lot like ours. We know that the entire upper government agreed to be fired and permanently banned from politics just to reduce doubt that anyone involved had an incentive to support that decision for the wrong reasons. I could go on! It was a big decision! We took all the obvious precautions and passed down knowledge of their convergent properties the same way we kept and sanitized knowledge of how to make steel and so on!"
"I don't think a bloodbath was involved in, specifically, screening off the past, necessarily, but in establishing the dath ilan meta-culture such that this became an available action. You look like a human. You look like a human who did not have exclusively Africa-dwelling ancestors, even, which suggests that there was some population spread out of Africa before the divergence! Which means there were multiple, different human cultures developing independently some tens of thousands of years ago, and it's not that weird that some culture would develop an ideal that was like yours and refine their social technology over time until they could reliably spit out population members like you, but it has to have somehow taken over everywhere. How do you think that happened?"
"Until I got here the thought would not have occurred to me that there was not a single supremely obvious convergent answer to this question which is that all of the trajectories near the multi-agent-optimal boundary look like that. I'm not even sure what you think should have happened instead."
"...something more like a Civilization game than like different low-tech societies running into each other and immediately deciding that they had no differences so important that they couldn't coordinate on things like banning certain music from the radio or obliterating the widespread study of history."
"If there was any group that did that they were not us. And if so, somewhere along the line, much further back than the boundary of the known past, they turned into us, long after they'd finished playing Civ V. Nothing resembling us by a very long distance ran into groups unlike us and tried to kill them instead of trading with them, sharing knowledge with them, or just plain helping them."
"I guess it's possible that some culture - pardon me, meta-culture - took over the world and only later morphed into a recognizable dath ilan ideology. But before anyone tries to trade with, share knowledge with, or just plain help Earth, they should have a solid grounding in what overtures look like threats to a planet with a Civ V backstory."
"Fully agreed. We can start taking notes now if you want the first thing dath ilan hears to be a list of all the precautions they should take and all the things they shouldn't do. I guarantee you that there is an Exception Handling procedure for the case of First Contact with a generally stupider or crazier human civilization, which already involves 'speak to them very cautiously until you understand how their models of you are bad' and which prioritizes 'try to figure out what does or might scare them and then don't say that'. But the people much smarter than us will respect us a little more if it looks like we already tried to collect that information before they asked for it."
"Oh, sorry. I did run across some mentions of cognitive tests on Wikipedia and eyeballing them it looks like an average dath ilani adult would max out the discriminative range of your IQ tests at 140 and our eight-year-olds would score about the same on the Cognitive Reflection Test as your distribution for adults. I suppose it may not be fair to infer 'crazier' from the validity violations for astrology if those are otherwise functional people being forced insane on only some topics, but your world as a whole is definitely 'crazy' relative to coherent universal rules of valid reasoning, even if the people inside can reason validly about everything except astrology and other blocked topics. It was meant as an ordinary fact, not an insult. Sorry."
"Tests go higher than that, just not the ones you can casually find, you have to pay through the nose for the kind they invented for hypercogs. Earthlings will not take negative evaluations of their intelligence and sanity neutrally however you mean it unless you're really, really up on the polite ways to talk around it. What do you mean 'forced insane'?"
"That is itself crazy but noted. I was referring to my wrong theory about how the magical astronomical phenomena here are applying specific cognitive pressures to people who think about relations between magic and astronomy, producing the field of astrology. Later I will try to find exact patterns that appear across all the fields where people are mysteriously crazy, like 'astrology' and 'religion' and 'p-values'; but I won't be able to point to any exact patterns like that, or exact borders around which subjects are forbidden, just a patchwork quilt of bad reasoning continuous with many other parts of your society. Then I will admit that you were right and I was wrong and astrology is just something that happened in a way continuous with mundane cognitive science. You will note that I was more ignorant than you about this and wrong to think that I could be righter than you in my first few days in a different world, and I will nod and say you were right and update my general heuristics. I will not feel insulted. It would be extremely undignified if I felt insulted. I would have to obliterate your entire world's past history to hide my shame."
"Just to be clear, that was a humorous exaggeration. Sorry for the alien enacting the illusion of transparency at you, and you not being able to tell how exaggerated any humorous exaggerations are. I probably won't feel insulted based on my having been through many similar experiences in my life. If I failed, it would be very undignified if I acted disruptively instead of just dealing with my own mental problems without burdening others. It would not be undignified per se if I had to expend visible effort on dealing, or if I asked somebody else to give me a second to manage myself internally, but it would be surprising and people would wonder if there was a hidden factor making things worse for me. My deontology says not to hide that class of shameful events. If we ignore that, the utility I lost from the emotional pain of having that much shame exposed would be many many orders of magnitude smaller than the utility over the loss to the sapient beings of your civilization from screening their past, I can try to run ass numbers on that if you like."
"We do not know what was lost. We can guess it must have been a lot. Our finest and most trusted accepted that and then stepped down forever, so they must have thought it was worth it, and every now and then we send in somebody else to check and they have yet to break the seal. Somewhere in our history there are people who spent all their lives working so that we, their descendants, could have a brighter future, and they died before cryonics was invented and the worms ate their souls, and we do not know their names or their deeds. They made artworks for us that we will not see. Their names are preserved in a station beneath the ice of the north pole of our planet, and maybe their deeds will be known again someday, and remembered when the stars grow cold. We didn't do that because we were aliens who didn't care."
"I wonder if they're - someplace like here. Not here. You would have noticed. Maybe somewhere better than this, maybe somewhere worse. Maybe they're in worlds that allow magic and mindcalling. Maybe we could find each other, all the people like me, the Lost Dead of dath ilan. I don't know how we'd find each other, under rules like the ones you have - but I know the names of some Lost Dead who died after history's curtain closed, and mostly ones older than me. Maybe they know somebody older than themselves, and older, and we can breach the curtain and find everyone who came before, friends who knew friends who knew friends, touching hands across some gap of which we know nothing. It would be a larger and far more dangerous project than building a portal to dath ilan if that were possible, and dath ilan seems not nearly adult enough to attempt such a thing, let alone Earth... but someday. The stars are much older than us, and they will go on burning for a while."
Plus: Isabella is doing the obvious thing with magic. This is reassuring because people in Pride and Prejudice don't do obvious good things.
Minus: Isabella said it was on her to-do list and not Earth's to-do list. Maybe Thellim got dropped where she would arrive to the sanest person here.
"All of dath ilan would throw the entirety of its strength behind it, if there were any way we could help you."
"I... guess you could send enough people here to see if you can increase the pool of eclipsed or if you have to be born on Earth and then they could go into suitably allied fields. Or just pay me to quit my day job, though I'd probably still work eclipses. It's a long way off if it can be done at all, though."
Offering to cooperate with other people if they cooperate with you: It's simple. It works. It's the core of Civilization. You hear it before you're old enough to understand the words. There will not be a bloodbath, and she will find a way to allow Isabella to know what she knows.
"I also need to learn enough about your world to see if there's any knowledge I can apply to become wealthy - for example, if you have psions who can discern truth, it seems like you could have mate-matchmakers whose oaths are even more trustworthy than ours, perhaps you simply haven't had the idea. I am also dath ilan, in this place I am all of dath ilan, and I will also help if I can."
"There are psions who can do that but I'm not sure you can make a lot of money by trying to matchmake people - at least not any time soon - I don't think you have a good enough handle on the way Earth relationships work - but maybe I'm wrong, like, if you were trying to find me a sub what would you do?"
"Fair point, I'd need to understand more to know that I wasn't participating in making a bad situation worse. But in broad, the way the problem scales, it's not about finding you a sub, it's about getting to know a large enough pool of people that you can find some matches among them and get paid bounties on the ones you do find."
"Wow that was a face. Uh, if this worries you about me in particular I am not myself that into hitting subs. I did watch an instructional video on caning once because I go around with a cane and might attract subs who expect me to know how to use it, but it's not something I'd look for."
"I either need to read a cognitively realistic fiction written from the perspective of a parallel-dimension human who arrives in this world and is initially horrified by submission but slowly and gradually finds out the information that changes everything about that, which part of me is even horrified that I am saying out loud as a possibility; or I need to persuade you that certain things are not okay, so we can throw the entirety of our strength behind also making that better; or we have to diverge our ways because of values differences, with me acknowledging that I owe you for initial help and also still helping you with resurrection if I can and bloodbaths still never being in the cards; or I have to read enough research to be really really convinced that my eclipse will not turn me into a masochist; or I have to write down all my knowledge of dath ilan that could be useful to you, and then kill myself before my eclipse and try to go be lost and dead somewhere else; or make my meliorizable plan about this be something sometime soon, because my current emotional state is not sustainable on a timescale of months."
"Okay, uh, of those, I think the one where you research how eclipses work until you're confident they do not prompt masochism is the most promising but I can try to dig up weird books about interdimensional travelers but the specific thing you mention is likely to be written mostly by people who specifically kink on the idea of introducing someone to the entire concept of relationship dynamics and I would expect the category, if there is one to speak of, to contain a lot of sex scenes."
"I can handle sex scenes, I think. I cannot handle masochism scenes until after I understand why this is not a horrorworld. It would not be very surprising if you had negative evidence against eclipse times visibly shifting locals, it would be somewhat reassuring, the problem is that this seems likely to not be enough information to reassure me to the necessary level that generalized weird phenomena didn't turn the natives masochistic and won't turn me masochistic somehow with lunar eclipses still being an obvious point of peak risk. Knowing somebody will kill me if the eclipse does turn me masochistic would be reassuring. Being convinced of the inconceivable conceivable world where masochism is morally wonderful would be reassuring. I can try to think of other things that would be reassuring."
"Uh, they're... instructively stylized? Like, do you have... repair manuals for appliances, or recipes that tell you to sift flour and use room-temperature eggs, which are not incorrect but they are exaggerated in the direction of doing everything just-so, where an actual expert who did not need to consult a manual would know what they'd be trading off if they were sloppy with any given step?"
"It might help. I don't know. The more ideal version of me is fine so long as nobody is visibly suffering and screaming. The actual version of me is having traumatic memory occurrences of that video, but I'm going to have to deal with that eventually anyhow. But if there's a critical fact I don't know, it's not going to be that there is some particular protective procedure that subs go through to get matched with caring doms who only hurt them the way they like. It's going to be something about what it is like to be a masochist, which algorithm runs to generate the experience."
Would it be less insulting than 'crazy' if she more technically describes Earth civilization as 'not valid'
"And no public goods or scientific institutions, so nobody can scrape up the money to go do the obvious survey... no, that doesn't sound right? Somebody is doing science if all the information on Wikipedia isn't just made up."
"I am confused about the flow of argument! I thought the proposition was that eating spicy food is a lower, clearly benign point along a spectrum of benign masochism that extends smoothly off into the horizon. Whether liking spicy food does or does not correlate with more extreme masochism seems like... a clear evidence-differential signal about the underlying hypothesis?"
"...yes, but nobody's exactly banging down scientists' doors going 'study whether spicy food is correlated with masochism, we need to know now, it's of urgent import' so scientists are spending their budgets on studying, like, alcoholism or octopuses or Antarctica or whatever."
"If a tenth of your population is masochists, the benefit of all studies relating to masochism gets multiplied by one-tenth your population size. If you ever have the choice between losing all science on masochists and losing all science on Antarctica you should probably pick Antarctica."
"So I don't know that there are obvious improvements to be made in the implementation of masochism any more than there are in the implementation of tasty food, masochists are not encouraged to practice their proclivities on airplanes so that part doesn't come into it, and I really don't see you inventing revolutionary new sex toys."
"I am not able to follow the thread of this argument. Do you not have - the idea that people in horrible pain take moral priority over an equivalent number of people not in horrible pain? The only way that food takes priority would be if subs were being impelled to eat such awful food that they had to be -"
strapped down unable to move, locked down more than even the torture required, like the torturers were making a deliberate point of exactly how helpless she was, not even able to try to defend herself or writhe away after strike after strike after strike, unable to do anything but scream louder than any scream Thellim has ever heard in her life
"- anchored in place by metal bonds and have the food forcibly inserted into their mouths while they scream. Actually, that seems to me like a strong counterargument that masochism occupies a natural continuum with spicy food. I've never heard of anybody in dath ilan forming such a powerful spicy food preference that they needed to be restrained in place and forced to eat the meal while they screamed... though I guess it could be very rare, or maybe treated as a failure of intertemporal bargaining..."
"Temporary psionic memory suppression, if I can - remember abstractly what it is that I'm not remembering - is sounding like a buttcheek more of a good idea than it would usually sound to me. I'll probably be all right but I don't actually know, I have not read studies on what happens when naive subjects are exposed to images of people in extreme pain. It is not a kind of study that we would do even for the sake of science."
Isabella grabs the computer, looks through the history, finds the video (muted, with the screen turned away from Thellim), and does some searching around. "- okay, her pseudonym is Linsee Harp, or I guess that could be her real name but it's probably not, and she has a Twitter and has posted six times today, although she mostly posts, uh, more porn, so you probably don't want to look. I'll send her a Twitter message."
Isabella sets up the Skype call. "I'm telling her you came from a weird cult, it explains why you'd be so freaked out and doesn't invite a ton of further questions and will discourage her from hitting on you."
And here's video of Linsee Harp, pigtailed and sipping a smoothie and looking in perfect health.
Yep, part of Thellim definitely thought this person was dead, all right. Before the world seemed horrible, but coherent. Now the world just seems inconsistent, like she's in the middle of an educational-prank that's being revealed. Thellim's brain seems split between thinking the Video must be a lie, and thinking that this video must be a lie. Nice video-call technology, though.
"Hello," Thellim says. She's still having trouble thinking of how to ask any of the things she wants to ask.
"Oh, yeah, it's like a safeword but it works when I can't talk! I just go like so -" She makes a gesture with the hand that's not holding the smoothie. "And then Master and whoever else we invited on set all cut it out sharpish and give me ice cream. 'S actually the only time I get ice cream so Master's not worried I won't do it if I gotta."
"So you could have made it stop at any time. But you didn't." There goes Thellim's implicit model of the whole thing as some kind of sheer massive failure of intertemporal self-bargaining. "Why the metal clamps if you - if they didn't need to hold you down - I don't understand."
Thellim tells her Noticing Confusion detectors yelling 'I defy this data' to shut up long enough to hear this out. It's not going to be a lie, the literary conceit of this unreal world is obviously going to have whatever she hears next be the truth.
"Oh, just 'cause I'm wiggling don't mean I want it to end, hon, they gotta lock me up nice and tight to hold me still," Linsee laughs. "Sorta like being tickled, you ever try to hold still for somebody tickling you? Or tickle a li'l kid, they'll kick and roll away but come right back. Also it's fun by itself, sometimes Master snugs me up in something when we're watching a movie and we don't even have sex about it."
This is like some bizarre-thought-experiment on how awful you can make a scene and then try to justify it afterwards.
Actually it's really really like a bizarre-thought-experiment. Too pointlessly extreme for anybody in dath ilan to consider good practice to write about - you can almost always make the point in thought experiments without the extreme torture or the rape or whatever, and students with possible edgelord tendencies are specifically cautioned about that - but if you imagine somebody not being warned about that, then this reads eerily exactly like the kind of thought experiment they'd come up with. Suppose you saw a woman bonded in place and hurt and screaming, now, what kind of elaborate backstory could somebody come up with to excuse that? And the answer is that some thought experiments have no apparent purpose except to damage your emotions and deontology and you shouldn't go along with their premises.
It is very like that. To the point where Thellim almost has a horrible feeling that she knows where she is inside reality. Next, the inhuman superbeing responsible for the eclipses will materialize and offer her insane, contrived choices.
"I been married five years, he doesn't make me fill out paperwork every time about it, hon, he knows me real well. Some places make you record a scene negotiation first but I don't think there's one for the vid you saw. But it was all fine by me, and I could tell him we hadta reschedule if I was feeling off."
"Please - forgive me my ignorance and stupidity. But if you imagine that I'm an alien and furthermore I just had all my memories about anything relating to submission or masochism psionically erased in an eclipse accident - and that's closer to the truth than you may realize, so please take that really really literally - is there anything you could say to - to explain all this - to somebody whose reaction to the video was to wonder if you could still be rescued? I just don't understand what it could be like from the inside to, to be screaming, to need to be held down, and to have a sign that would make it stop, and not use that sign. Unless they were threatening to kill your children but I know by now that's not going to be the answer."
"- well, I like it, hon. Feels - floaty and exciting at the same time - an' I get off on it, obviously - you ever stand around in an outfit without pockets and realize you don't know what to do with your hands, I feel like that a lot, goes away if I'm tied up. If I go a while without getting wailed on - like we had to stop when I was pregnant, for months and months - I get all itchy, kinda, and feel like I'm gonna forget what it's like to be all in my body and none in my head. The screaming just kinda happens, you know, people get like that even when it doesn't hurt at all when they're having sex."
"Is it - I don't -" Thellim doesn't know what questions to ask. She cannot imagine what kind of mental entity this is, it seems more alien to her than a cat; cats try to avoid pain. "If you accidentally drop a brick on your foot, does that feel bad? Is the pain itself different? Or is it other feelings that go along with the pain?"
"Some people like random pain like that, I'm not one of 'em, I got a kidney stone once and it was awful. It's a context thing, sometimes Master can help me deal with something that we didn't do for that reason - we went to this class on orgasmic birth, and we didn't get, y'know, top-flight results out of it but it was still better than doing without, I think, nurse said I was lower on the painkiller needs than a lotta people - people say stuff about, y'know, endorphins and things, I don't know if that's the whole story but it don't really matter."
"It sounds like sexual - desire? arousal? familiarity? - is one of the keys here. Can you explain how the pain with - your husband - is different from the same pain if, say, a mechanical robot was inflicting it? What's present in the pain that's hot, that isn't in exactly the same version of the bodily impact that would be ordinary pain?"
Yes, somehow she was expecting that. She's starting to pick up on the pattern of the edgy thought experiment. "But, just guessing here, you are very content with the way you are, it is a key part of your identity, it makes you happy, your current set of relationships are founded on it, and if a psion tried to turn you into a non-masochist you would resist with all your strength."
"Oh, sometimes people'll talk down to subs. When we bought a car the salesperson quoted me way over blue book and Master came by and got a steal. My teenage nephew mouths off to his mom now he's writing 'dom' on paperwork, won't listen to her and still minds his dad. And my health insurance's more expensive and sometimes I get a mark I don't like the look of and it takes a while to go away so I can ask Master for a prettier one."
Thellim's mind is blank. It shouldn't be blank, there should be more questions she should ask, but her mind is tired and more than slightly wounded inside. Yeah, she gets it. Being a submissive masochist is awesome with just the right amount of realistic downside and of course the actual qualia of it are incommunicable to her. She wants to go home.
...if a real person, if real people have been created like this, Thellim does not know what to do. The point of the thought experiment, no doubt. Which the people inside, if they are real, did not create, and are not to blame for. And they are sapient beings so the least she can do is be polite.
"Thank you for answering my stupid questions."
She wants to go home.
"Well, I am probably going to have fewer nightmare flashbacks to that video, which is good and was the most urgent problem. It's leading me to unpleasant conclusions about what genre of reality I now live inside, which I'm sure you weren't hoping for and I do apologize for that, but that is the kind of problem I can sleep on so long as I am able to sleep."
"It - probably takes some background, unless our culture has overlapped in ways that don't seem probable. There's a practice among my people of inventing bizarre thought experiments, to probe the boundaries of our ethical systems. And we're warned that teenagers and particularly teenage boys have a baseline tendency, before hearing the warning, of setting up thought experiments that maybe shouldn't be imagined. Alternate societies where rape has been legalized. Inhuman superbeings forcing you to pick between one person being tortured for fifty years or a... famous big number English has no words for... of people getting a dust speck in their eyes. Or asking if you'd crush your mother's brain to save a thousand other people from having their brains crushed."
"And the warning says, whatever point you were trying to make, there's a way to do it without the thought experiment being that upsetting, because the huge upset wasn't really intrinsic. You can have it be about, is it better to eliminate all chocolate forever from one planet, or have a famous-big-number of people get dust specks in their eyes. It's a kind of mental laziness and the sort of thing that teenagers, especially boys, do the first time they notice that deontology and utilitarianism can conflict ever. We're warned that, if somebody presents you with a thought experiment like that, there's a lot to be said for telling them to go away, because it's never going to happen in real life and so you don't need to do violence to your emotions or your logic, or to the integrity of yourself where all of your parts are singing the song of Light in unison without so much infighting."
"Because, in real life, you see, you're never going to run into any bizarre thought experiment where a woman is being tortured, but this is actually super fine for incommunicable reasons and she would oppose any attempt to make it stop. So you don't need to do violence to your feelings by considering the possibility. You tell the teenage boy to go away, and to raise the topic again when and if it comes up in real life."
"It would be - easier, much easier, to come to terms with this, if it was happening in dath ilan. If it was happening someplace more realistic in the sense of it all being just simple math deep down. If we encountered something equally shocking happening in dath ilan, it would just be, well, what do you know, human beings are strange and not all of them think the way you do, go study up on expected variation by naive subjects versus actual variation as found in experiments. If something equally shocking happened in real life, I would know that it wasn't as unnatural as it looked and that it would just turn out to be more naturally consonant in people, because, in the real world, the things that actually happen are those that are consonant with human nature, even if they turn out to be surprising."
"But in this world with your magical eclipses - if a teenage boy had no care at all for the feelings of others, if they were halfway to being an alien superbeing, you can very much imagine them creating that situation in reality just to throw somebody like me into it. So they could say, ha ha, well here it is in real life, I made some sapient beings who strongly prefer being tortured and maintain this preference under reflection, what do you do now."
"I... guess that makes sense if everybody in your world is too kinky - or whatever you even call it when it's everybody - to even think about torture for any reason besides being edgy. Uh, I... live here... so I can't just be like, oh, this planet isn't realistic enough for me, the things in it aren't normal things that can happen in real life and my model of reality doesn't have to account for them, but - I get that you are making a big adjustment in your scope of what's normal."
"I don't think I'm supposed to adjust to it. I think I'm supposed to do what I can for this world and then move on. Or, no, supposed to isn't the right term. If you present me with this thought experiment, my choice is that I do what I can for the world, without taking a position on the aliens' bizarre ways, one way or another, because I do not understand the aliens' minds. And in the absence of that understanding, Reality is prettier when aliens don't try to impose their ways on each other, all else being equal. I wouldn't want you imposing submission and masochism on a human population. And the sapients here are saying they want this, that everything's great, and having only themselves tortured - as individuals, not as a species, it would not be okay if you were torturing other Eclipsers who didn't like that. But you say you like being the way you are, as individuals, not just as a species, and yes, that does matter. Fine. Lovely thought experiment, whoever set it up. You've successfully induced moral dumbfounding in me and forced me into falling helplessly back on the null action even though inaction isn't actually privileged in any way. But I do not want to live here, and I hope that my next world is better than this."
"I don't want to be here. I don't want it so much, right now. You're right, to be clear, from a utilitarian standpoint," if the people here are as real as her, however real she is now, "but I don't want to - I should rest. I should rest and not think about this for a while, or try not to. Play more Civ - no, something with as close to zero violence and upsettingness as possible."
Even in bizarre thought experiments where suicide looks like a completely reasonable long-term solution for elaborate reasons, suicidal ideation is probably still a warning sign. And should probably still induce an immediate short-term core fallback to the reasoning patterns that say not to kill yourself or think too much about killing yourself, even if it looks like there is a reason.
"Yes, the similarity of outward forms fooled me as well. In retrospect, though, I'd have done better from the start if I'd used my cached fictional procedures for dealing with aliens instead of humans. It wouldn't have surprised me as much if aliens had low-quality food on their airplanes for unknown reasons. Though Isabella still seems to think that I am underestimating within-human variation and overestimating how much your magic affects everything, and I am dutifully doing my best to maintain a separated mental partition for the world where she is correct about everything. It's not among my most prized skills, but I am trying to the extent that any adult of my species ought to be able to try."
"Yes, I found that after Googling. I don't remember my ears popping on my last sane air trip until the plane started to fall apart, so we keep our airplanes at greater pressure and probably higher humidity too. That's plausibly something that's genuinely expensive, and it would account for some of why our airplane food tastes better. I continue to think that a slight amount of optimization could have produced better food than what I actually ate, with no greater mass and a cost that should have been trivially greater. My reading suggests that the much larger problem is that airlines with better food can't charge an additional two dollars per ticket, because of a vastly larger problem in which your society has no credible mechanisms for evaluating the quality of anything."
"We have better aggregation mechanisms for individual judgments than taking the means of five-star ratings. And we have a generally higher-trust society, in which it is possible for everyone to have online credentials that prevent sole defectors from snowing under a system with fake ratings, without that leading to an evil oppressive government. Though Isabella has incredibly strong priors in favor of our government being secretly evil and oppressive, because it has secrets. In our high-trust society, where our experience is that the government does not automatically go evil and oppressive, we trust our government to have some secrets without that being a massive plot to steal the underwear of every sapient being in existence."
"Earth does have some fun memes. I liked the one with the profit gnomes."
"Within my species, anybody who started writing the equivalent of astrology would be straightforwardly insane. I'm not saying society would treat them as insane because they're weird. We have all sorts of extremely weird people, and they have much higher affordances for going off and forming their own subcultures without our government arresting them or our financial networks removing their ability to take credit cards. I'm saying that we would run neurological-level psychiatric scans on that person and find a massive serotonin imbalance. This difference is probably around 75% due to childhood education and 25% due to past genetic selection on intelligence, reflectivity, and emotional resilience."
"Different species, yes. I'm not suggesting your species try randomly adopting features of my world, definitely not in an unordered fashion, and maybe not at all. You don't have the deep features that would make the surface features work. I currently agree that your government should not be allowed to keep secrets or diagnose mental illnesses."
"You've definitely got the one where people think that everybody is staring at them and that voices are being projected into their heads, though that can be caused by other things than serotonin disorders. I was relieved to find it, actually. It implies we have pointwise similarity of neurology and probably the interworld equivalent of common ancestry."
"I presently believe Isabella's version of the story where that would not work and should not be tried. It would be a foul act to raise a child in such a way that astrology was plausible to them, but once that child is already an adult, their ownership of their own soul takes priority."
"In the unlikely event that two-way portals become possible, we will take all of the foster children that we can without violating whatever treaty arrangements are worked out. And, I expect, a vast number of adults, if your governments do not simply formalize the arrangement by which they treat their citizens as captive farm animals."
"Isabella is correct to distrust governments given her experience with the behavior of governments. Citizens are allowed to leave because there do not exist incentive gradients strong enough for governments to lose significant quantities of their farm animals that way; rich countries refuse immigrants, so poor countries still allow emigration. My read is that if there is a country that is suddenly accepting all the exhausted sad people, and giving them someplace to rest and perhaps recover, Earth governments will very quickly discover some reason why nobody should be allowed to go to dath ilan."
"I don't think you have the logistical capacity even if we're positing a portal instead of a marginally expensive teleport," says Isabella. "There's like a billion of you, how would you absorb a substantial fraction of your population in Earthling refugees next time we have a big earthquake?"
"It's legal to build houses and farm food, neither is a huge fraction of our GDP, and some thought has already gone into making industries like that ridiculously scalable just in case there is some wild reason why a tenth of our infrastructure suddenly has to rebuild the other nine-tenths. One year after dath ilan knows about Earth, we will have enough emergency arcologies set up to evacuate a billion people from Earth. In two years we'll be ready to accept the entire population should that become necessary. If we ran into a nicer civilization, I expect we would have reciprocal versions of the same arrangement, in case of asteroid strikes or alien invasions or ocean algae suddenly dying out."
"I am willing to negotiate with you about what dath ilan won't do here, Isabella, since you have the power to grant or forbid us entry, and I expect my civilization will abide by agreements I make. When it comes to determining what my people will require others to accept as a precondition of taking refuge in our Earth, I can only guess. In this case I'd guess that it will not be permitted to deny children education. I can almost guarantee that weird adults will be allowed to be weird. Except insofar as they may try to inflict true death on their own brains or the brains of others... only I'm not sure we'd impose even that condition, if it meant that fewer refugees came to us."
"You could probably get a lot of uptake on freezing dead people if you sold it right and didn't otherwise antagonize people, but if you decide that, say, raising kids as monolingual Arabic speakers in an attempt to keep them primarily connected to their parents' culture, and only letting them learn Baseline when they're like ten so they'll have accents, is 'denying them education', you will have an uphill battle."
"I am not remotely the smartest, most skilled, or most moral individual of Civilization let alone its aggregate. I expect we will run a prediction market on which policies have which results, weighted mostly toward which policies will save the most true lives, and do what the prediction market says."
"Every mistake a civilization makes is ultimately repairable except for the mistake of a brain being destroyed. ...Or so I would have said until I died in a plane crash and ended up here. It's frankly hard to track the implications of that, and for purposes of presupposing that two-way portals with dath ilan are possible, I have mostly been ignoring it. Realistically, the people much smarter than me would deduce a lot more about what it means, and there'd be a huge update in our understanding of reality, but I don't know what the output of that update will be... I guess it is a predictable directional update that true death may end up being treated as much less of an overriding consideration. Or maybe even more of an overriding consideration, if the Lost Dead are randomly ending up in worlds even worse than this one. But, again, mostly not thinking about it until the other parts of my thinking are in more of an equilibrium and my baseline emotional stability is higher. I do suspect this is a topic that would drive people much more insane than astrology, if they come from the sort of civilization that can't figure out how to use likelihood functions in their science papers."
"We're going to have some issues with precognition and so on, but once we've worked those out, it is utterly against our philosophy not to let Earthlings buy in. I do expect all of you to lose all your money, of course, because the prediction markets are not as stupid as I am. Your civilization doesn't scale from individuals to aggregates in anything like the same way; for purposes of estimating the competence of dath ilan as a whole by looking at me, you need to imagine that I'm an average twelve-year-old, not an average adult."
"Please don't actually do that until precognition issues have been worked out. That genuinely does present a huge issue to my civilization's core infrastructure for governance and sanity, if people are suddenly applying the no-trade theorem to each other because they don't know who has precognitive information. I cannot reasonably threaten to withhold dath ilan contact on that basis, but I do ask politely that we arrange for things to not happen that way."
"I have no idea whether Civilization has emergency plans for suddenly needing to impose a one-hour delay on all trade executions before the corresponding market information becomes public, but it is a nontrivial cost to all of Civilization, sort of like your civilization suddenly becoming 10% less electrically efficient or all Internet connections suddenly acquiring an extra ten seconds of latency."
"But then anything markets touch will kick precogs out of that prediction, and our markets are everywhere, we can't just shut them down during eclipses to make the eclipses more predictable the way you do... but it works in the short term as soon as we can afford to hire a precog, I guess? And realistically we only need a few hours for the people much smarter than me to look at this problem and come up with some clever arrangement that is way above my paygrade to actually figure out."
"You know how it's usually quite difficult to guess what stock markets would do, because if you knew what they would do on any routine basis, you could make a trillion dollars? But lots of people would like to have a trillion dollars, so almost-everywhere the stock market already reflects all knowledge contained in people who would like to make money? We did that for all the important questions that could be settled at any point in the future, using markets that pay out to whoever was right. So Civilization knows everything about the probabilities over any important question that can be definitely settled later, that any member of Civilization knows now. A lot of important issues are subjective, of course, and in that case Civilization only knows what preselected judge panels or random survey respondents will say in a few years."
"We have rather fewer people who lack liquid assets in that way, but obviously most individuals can't have enough wealth to shift the larger market. If the knowledge they have is of a form where they can't convince others, all they can do is place their own bets and wait to become wealthier and accumulate more of a track record. If the knowledge is shareable, there are all kinds of arrangements which naturally allow the individual to capture some fraction of that knowledge's value to Civilization. The classic literary trope involves making a deal with a mad investor who believes your crazy story, but for ordinary shareable knowledge you'd just make an ordinary deal with a more staid trading firm."
"The amounts of money I could make by trying slightly clever ideas are meaningless to me, and I don't particularly deserve that much or have any nonstandard ambitions. I'll just play it straight, and some proud philanthropist will buy one percent of my impact for more money than I realistically know how to spend on myself. My Civilization has a concept of - being extremely predictable about rewarding people who did the right thing when it mattered, in proportion to the scale of how much it mattered, even if it all has to be arranged afterwards? If I do right enough things, I'll be a billionaire equivalent, and that frees me up to just worry about what is the right thing."
"Buy stock in the dath ilan companies that would build the arcologies, sell stock in Earth companies that employ lots of sad exhausted people at low wages, start a company that makes real chairs, sell fiction books written by smarter authors at a much higher price to smart rich people here who have nothing fun to read... that kind of nitwit, low-effort foolishness would already be enough to make more money than I could use personally. Somewhat more value to Earth from, say, my trying to reverse-engineer how our rating systems work based on their Network user interface, and displacing Amazon's front-end with a new product recommendation system, so that your entire economy would have an incentive to manufacture products of much higher quality at a slightly higher price. Much more value if our governmental forms work better than yours when copied here, something that may not be true at all, and I can talk one country anywhere into adopting them and accepting a lot of immigrants and exporting real science and real medical research."
"They hurt. It is possible to make people-holders that don't look like the most obvious possible chair structure somebody invented here I don't know how many centuries ago. The way we do it requires giving up the idea that you can sell exactly the same chair to everybody, and having a facility that measures people in order to make people-holders for them. But I have real trouble imagining that there is not some way to mass-manufacture better people-holders than this. Guest chairs have to fit randomly sampled people and ours don't look like yours. But they also have motors and adjust themselves using software I don't have and anatomical principles I don't know... it seems like something a startup could figure out once they knew what was possible. But your civilization has a very general problem, from my perspective, wherein it has some problem, and people don't optimize that problem away, they just live with it. We elected not to live being tortured by our own furniture on a daily basis, and we made that not happen. I know what the result looked and felt like, but I don't know exactly what it takes to do the same here and successfully market the result. It's been an obstacle to a lot of possibilities I've been considering - that you maybe can't sell any unfamiliar product at a premium, when there's no Very Serious People to accept a free sample and Amazon's rating system rates everything at 4.4 stars."
"Maybe you've already done some accidental selection on people who aren't injured too much by the chairs you currently have? I did Google and find a lot of people talking about how much they hate this planet's chairs, but I have no idea how statistically common they are, because your planet does not spend an amount of money on chairs or chair research that is remotely proportional to the time that people spend in chairs. Alternatively I cannot find any science research even though it exists, because your planet's systems for tagging, discussing, and recommending funny pictures are two hundred times more sophisticated than anything your planet has ever tried with its science papers. I am still not entirely sure that this is not the result of the moon driving you all insane, though Isabella has made steady progress on convincing me that it reflects a coherent general level of cognitive capacities and I have jumped ahead to update my second-order opinion over this predictable first-order trend."
"If you fixed the chairs, beds, desks, and the abominations you call computer keyboards, I bet there would be fewer people with - meta-level point. Do you really want this conversation to be me complaining about everything Earth is doing wrong? I've given myself a limited budget of time to do that every day, and I can go over it if you're enjoying this but there's not much point in doing it otherwise."
"Weird food is good so long as it's not explicitly bad food! It's fascinating that some of your food manages to be slightly strange to me, after my having eaten at enough weird-food restaurants that they didn't feel novel any more. It suggests that our weird restaurants have legitimately managed to form a monoculture in some subdimension. Now, this could be because Earth food is subtly wrong in some hidden way that will have objectively poor effects on my health later, but for now I'm hoping to get rich enough that mages can sort it out later if that's true."
"That's like asking what Earth food is like! But the last meal I ate before getting on the airplane was spinach salad with fried apple chips, gooey synthetic cheese which does not taste awful even though it contains the words 'synthetic' and 'cheese' in the same sentence, because our civilization would not put up with that, and the restaurant's private salad dressing with twenty different fermented ingredients. It's all mechanically arranged more carefully than local salad and you'd eat it without stirring it to avoid upsetting the distribution of cheese, chips, dressing, and so on."
"It does not take hundreds of years to rapidly eat up all the low-hanging fruit if they suddenly materialize again. I expect there were some subcultures around with fifteen-year-olds who'd never eaten any of the standard recipes, and those fifteen-year-olds got paid enough to drop whatever they were doing and intensively investigate different apple-crisp recipes for a month. Or somebody demonstrated convergence on an obviously optimal method and then that method didn't contain much specific information about the past. Some mix of things like that."
"We put the older cities into a state where they would last, put domes over them, and didn't mark them on standard public maps. We didn't destroy them. We do take the ten seconds required to think of better alternatives, where they are available. But I don't know what I can say to convince Isabella, because she comes from a civilization where any government who tried that would be plotting something."
"I... don't actually know? I would guess some mixture of ultralight materials like... I don't know the English word, moderately hard waterproof stuff that weighs nearly as little as air, or even less if you fill it with hydrogen though I doubt it's stable in that form... and maybe a lot of internal bracing with stronger ultralight materials? Nearby towers and cable points? Sorry, I'm not actually a megascale engineer."
"What does this planet spend its wealth on? It's not pretty buildings. It's not high-tech furniture or high-tech houses. I know you have enough agricultural technology that only a tiny fraction of the population work on farms, I looked that up. Your materials science can't be that far behind ours if you can make skyscrapers. Your factories have robots. They have better robots. A tiny fraction of your population should be able to supply basic material support to the whole. How is your funding for artists that terrible -"
"Sorry, I shouldn't have said that, I'm already over my Earth complaints limit for Saturday. 'Ascended' would be whenever you turn into the - successful, higher-status version of whatever your career path is? The gradients in fiction matchmaking aren't that sharp, but I have a full roster of clients and can charge approximately median fees, which definitely wasn't true when I started out in life. I'm as ascended as I can get without a lateral career shift. Maybe if I became a fiction matchmaker specializing in fiction for ascendant... venture capitalists, I think you'd call them, though 'reckless moneylender' or 'mad investor' would be a more literal translation. What does an ascendant art major look like?"
"So, roughly, there's only a few major expenditures of money on artwork, you're aiming to collect some of those when you're grown, and of course your planet has no early-stage life investors so you only get to try for those if you have a wealthy sister... is that about it? Do you have a career Ambition - some particular art you want to create?"
"I mean a lot of people want to be artists because art is fun and cool, so it isn't like, uh, welding, where you can get steady money for knowing which end of a torch is which because nobody is like yay welding how jolly. I wanna do concept art for movies, I think, or maybe book covers, they get to do sci fi creatures and stuff? But specific project wise I'm not specifically itching to draw anything or I could just draw it."
Thellim does not explain that the entire point of a civilization is to let more people do what they want and things that are fun and cool or else why bother having a civilization in the first place. She is over her limit for Saturday.
"I have a cousin who welds reactor cores but yes, most welding isn't that - sloped? - offering of potential opportunities for steep ascent? But most jobs aren't that sloped, right? People with unusually strong desires to gamble on sharp ascents compete for the few jobs that are gambles on exaltation. Most people take jobs with smoother outcome distributions. Artistry wouldn't be that much of a gamble in dath ilan, but my impression is that most dath ilani artists have some grand career vision they're practicing to be able to pull off someday. But things here seem very different and - I don't know how Earth allocates an Alex to artistry, or how an Alex allocates himself to artistry, or what you're supposed to ask an Earth artist on your way to bagels."
"I got into college and put 'fine arts' on a piece of paper, and traditionally you ask if you can see my portfolio and I pull up some stuff on my phone for you to coo politely over, but I'm not sure you would consider it complaining about Earth over budget if you happened to hate it and decide that Earth was insane for letting me have charcoal."
"Correct me if I'm mistaken and Earth actually does this part just fine, but where I come from, they always make sure to show you the earliest works of famous people next to any exposure you get to their post-exaltation stuff, so people don't get an exaggerated picture of what you can do when. I mean, this also teaches you that some famous people were ludicrously talented and were already better than you at age nine, but that is not a majority of exalted professionals in any field except math."
"What I'm trying to say is that I am not expecting to like the work of a young still-learning artist without much of a client roster. I am expecting to see whatever it is, nod, say that it doesn't work on me yet, and wish you good skill on the journey ahead of you. And that is supposed to be okay."
"...I am worried that this is going to end in an awful mismatch between my culture's," carefully tuned system intended to increase how much young people retain enthusiasm for their careers despite older people being visibly much better, "practices, and yours, so maybe I shouldn't look at your portfolio after all." Are they at the bagel shop yet? A distraction would be useful around now.
Thellim exactly imitates Alex's order! She hasn't tried that combination before, and imitating other people's food orders is a good way to get out of your own culinary ruts and find interesting parts of the space that other people found before you.
(She makes a mental note to ensure adequate protein and fat later in the day, though.)
Thellim's first impulse is to remark that she bets that this non-willingness to pay is not because Earth people are already reading a stream of excellent books which are about the best books they could possibly be reading. She can't do that. It is still Saturday.
Earth's refusal to pay for nicer things would be more understandable if there were any reasonable project that she could understand Earth as prioritizing instead. This whole place is full of high tech, higher than her own in some ways, why don't the people here have more nice things when this civilization clearly has the basic productive capacity to do that? Where does it all go? Even if their evil governments are stealing all the wealth, where are they stealing it to, and shouldn't enough people be visibly working on it that the population would have to notice?
Can't say that either. Still Saturday.
"I expect you're right," Thellim settles on.
"Choose a dimension! Books relatively excel along different dimensions in a much more stable way than they have comparable absolute goodnesses - my favorite book can vary from hour to hour, depending on what I'm in the mood for. Which book stands out as having the best humor, the best characterization, or having taught me the most about how to live, is a much more stable quantity."
"Humor is among the dimensions where the goodness is most incommunicable without actually reading the book! But my favorite work there is My Footprints Dance With Yours, a tertiary work featuring three protagonists from three different famous secondary works of a primary literature, who've all gone back in time to try to change their secondary worlds' destinies, but they end up in the primary world's past simultaneously. The high context puts up a strong barrier to entry, but the author was good enough to master the different voices for all the alts plus the primary work's characters, at least up to my own ability to tell the difference; and their different origins allow for so many different layers of mistaken expectations going on that the book can pull off something like one grand collision per chapter. I was laughing so hard I cried on a sustained basis, not just occasionally."
"I'm not sure how things are done on Earth so I'll go back to basics? Authors usually start out by using better authors' worlds and characters and running variations on their storylines, in return for paying onward a small share of the gratuities; one-twentieth is standard for a lesser work that sells cheaply. As authors ascend their career path, the prices of their books rise and the fees they'd have to pay go up, which encourages them to create their own worlds and characters and sell stories set there. When an author exalts, it's usually with some particular variation of their original world and characters which turned out to be really good, good enough to become famous. Which obviously raises the sales of other alts' adventures as well, and young authors will start to copy that world and pay gratuity fractions to it. Some works are so legendary that ascended authors write secondary works of them, and then relatively more artistic writers have been known to write tertiary works varying on those, though that is less of something a young author would try to do. And then that's as far as it ever goes, of course, because human beings can't track more than three layers of recursion."
"Our strange, alien civilization has invented the notion that the secondary authors can pay the primary authors a small percentage of gratuities to use their worlds, leaving both authors better off than if this arrangement did not exist. This is not meant to say that you could do any such thing on Earth; I can guess that it would not be possible to you and that I am not able to understand the exact reasons why."
"Isabella exaggerates in several different dimensions. Our books have sex scenes. I expect other material could be found in the Forbidden Stores that sell Ill-Advised Consumer Goods, which I have yet to find any reason to patronize myself. I do not in any case understand what that would have to do with all of your authors deciding in unison that none of them would like additional revenue from secondary literature."
"Stuff that might kill you, but not destroy your brain or kill other people around you. Or do less damage than that, of course, but the point is you don't know without further research. I usually expect, when I buy food in a store, that it's not going to kill me, even if I haven't done any detailed research on who recommended it and checked their panel for conflicts of interest. A sandwich being sold at a Shop of Ill-Advised Food would come with no such justified expectation, and presumably contains addictive drugs or something else that makes it an Ill-Advised Consumer Good."
"I expect that a power tool with particular dangers will have particular warning signs. If somebody wanted to invent their own system of warning signs instead, no ordinary store would carry those expectation-violating goods. But if there were weird people who wanted their power tools to have different warning signs, enough to form a market for them, you could sell those power tools in a shop of Ill-Advised Consumer Goods. I'm... not sure of the moral theory under which a civilization could reasonably not allow shops like that, unless their smart people were enough smarter than ours to know for certain that nobody ever needed an exception to the rules and that the damage done by Ill-Advised Consumer Goods would exceed the damage done by loss of freedom and individuality." She hopes they enjoy their system of uniform rules with no exceptions and no way out in case somebody happens to be different! Maybe someday she'll get back to her 'monoculture' where weirdos have more of an acknowledged right to exist and be weird.
"In the US we mostly manage this by having it be possible to sue people for selling stuff with inadequate warnings and corporations doing what they think will get them sued less, plus our less comprehensive but still existent reputation system. I'm not a lawyer and do not actually know if a shop with a sign up reading 'abandon normal consumer safety regulations all ye who enter here' would be legal?"
"I will be pleasantly surprised if Earth's system has good structural properties! I have been trying to adjust my expectations of Earth to a well-calibrated point where I will be pleasantly surprised at how well Earth managed something about as often as the reverse, but it's still a work in progress."
"Most of our addictive drugs are not administered in sandwich form. I don't know off the top of my head if hard drugs are outright legal anywhere as opposed to enforcement just not being successful though. Everywhere allows alcohol except Islamic countries, I believe, but there's usually an age limit with some exceptions."
"I don't have a stored concept for what 'alcohol' is, but the question is something like - does somone understand themselves and reality, their desires and the consequences, well enough that they can steer their own existence and you should not get in their way? Just as you ought not to stand next to an average adult optimizing everything they do whether they like that or not? There is a very obvious tradeoff between letting smart people run the lives of less smart people, versus letting people run their own lives, and dath ilan has elected to be the kind of Civilization that goes mostly down the second path. And the more your smart people are not completely calibrated about how little they know about other people, the less that's even a tradeoff because people just do strictly better running their own lives? I would expect Earth to have entirely bad experiences with letting its smart people run the lives of other people."
"They had fifteen year olds rederive all the recipes and none of them passed the competence test to have access to alcohol, I guess!" snorts Isabella. "My summary of dath ilan would absolutely not sound like 'does not let smart people run others' lives' but I suppose just like I keep telling you that magic is not a major determiner of Earthling nature you keep telling me that everyone just happens to not want to produce a really slick recording of a designated amateur song."
"See, that is exactly the kind of thing you could get as an Ill-Advised Consumer Good, and I wish I'd mentioned that to you earlier, but it didn't occur to me at that time that a civilization would not possess any exception-handling mechanisms for its clever rules not working for some people!"
"Yes. Because we have public goods that are actually good and not just elaborate plots, such as restricting hypercompetition to where it won't automatically step all over every aspect of ordinary people's ordinary lives with their friends, and we try to coordinate around preserving those."
"It is possible to do things successfully and pleasantly in other than the exact ways they are done on Earth? Plenty of people know how to sing the Chorus of Falling Down because they've heard their friends singing it. Anybody who knows a musical instrument, which is a supermajority, can read musical instructions for it... I don't understand why it's such a weird thought that we would have arrived at our own equilibrium which is different from your equilibrium, with its own pluses and minuses that we're pretty happy with ourselves."
"If so, it's the kind of dystopia where our buildings are prettier and our transport is faster and our cities are quieter and our artists have more funding. Babies inherit healthier genes from their healthy parents who had subsidized childcare and grow up into children who, if they are weird but competent children, can pass a test and then go buy things even if other people think that would be a bad idea. The only thing that makes it sound like a dystopia is simply that you are not used to any civilization that can execute good ideas correctly and you assume that everything would go as badly as it would on Earth."
"Do you people not even have science fiction that teaches you to be hesitant about judging other civilizations because maybe they're just weird but sane? I was trying really hard to fit Earth into that category right up until the point where it became clear that you were in the genre of weird morally horrifying thought experiments instead!"
"I really think this problem could be solved if you could visit dath ilan for three and a half seconds and see that the people there are basically free and happy and rich and not because we are brainwashed, we are so much less brainwashed than the horror-factories you call schools do to people here. We would back off if we noticed we were traumatizing half our students so badly that they end up scarred away from math for life. You people don't back off, you don't even run experiments or conditional prediction markets to notice when your supposedly smart people are doing horrific damage in the course of running other people's lives for their own good. The only reason you could possibly think that Earth was less of a dystopia is because you have stopped noticing all the dystopian things you do, to the point that when we built less dystopian features you automatically processed all the novel parts as 'oh, probably a dystopia' because your experience is that roughly all attempts at doing anything end up dystopian but at least you are used to yours!"
"Thellim, no matter how many times you say 'I hate everything you love' in different words, it will not start sounding friendly. And no matter how many times you assign us collective responsibility for the things we don't love, it won't give us the power to wave our hands and implement educational reform."
"We manage not to scar little children such that they never want to learn math again! How is this not evidence that maybe dath ilan is actually, really, sincerely trying to be less awful and coercive to its own people? I get that you don't like it and that you don't have the power to change anything. We also wouldn't like it and we do have the power to change Civilization's course when the people inside don't like something. I don't know what crux I'm missing to convince you that something less dystopian than Earth is possible but it really seems to me that there is some enormous case of learned helplessness going on here."
"And my extremely high-functioning, statistically literate news system would have made sure that if anything else was happening 0.1% of the time, it would appear on 1 out of 1000 news stories. Yes, we have one enormous island of last resort, where people go when they've behaved badly enough, and by that I mean, stolen, raped and killed, such that no other region wants to take them, because what else do you expect us to do, kill them, and the people who go there get contraception implants, and that region is not self-governing or allowed to manufacture powerful weapons, so that peacekeepers can have enough of a military advantage that they can collect the brains of the dead and prevent new arrivals from being enslaved the moment they step off the airplane. And we know about that and it appears in the news with roughly the same frequency that it exists. I do not ever want to go there but I would take it in a heartbeat over Earth's prisons and what - what else would you have us do? We make every possible accommodation for people who can't fit! We think about it and add even more accommodations as technology allows! We have customs specifically to protect weird people, the entire profession of reckless investing is reserved for nonconformists so that Civilization will always have exalted nonconformists, we have experimental regions to test variant ways of doing things, we have Quiet Cities for people who just can't handle Civilization for one reason or another, I truly do not understand what else you think dath ilan is supposed to do!"
"Groups that form cities have the right to exclude people from those cities, according to their own variable criteria. If an adult steals enough that no normal city wants them, and they have run out the patience of the sort of cities that manic philanthropists create to take in thieves - or just don't want to live there - then we made sure there was a place of last resort where anyone could go no matter what. We do apply external coercion to make sure the Last Resort does not form its own government that could, like Earth governments, simply exclude people from there too. There is always someplace for someone to go, and live, and not be abandoned to true death, no matter what else they have done."
"No, the Quiet Cities are normal peaceful places with adequate-quality versions of all the infrastructure. People go there when they can't handle actively working with Civilization in its current form, for whatever reason, and choose to be passively supported by Civilization instead. What does Earth do with somebody when they don't want to work a horrible Earth job, and no nicer jobs are being offered to them?"
"They live with their family if they have one and get, like, food stamps, if they don't? Our social services are not the best in the world here, I think they're better in parts of Europe, but even here most people who are actually homeless are not so for more than one day and most of the ones who are more homeless than that have serious mental illnesses keeping them from trying any obvious solutions."
"I would also be very surprised if you thought that. However, I'd be surprised if you found someone on food stamps, described to them Quiet Cities sufficiently that they would not say they weren't warned about anything significant to them about conditions there, and asked if they'd take a free ticket to live there and got a definite yes."
"I could on my current savings plus eclipse freelancing afford a mansion in any number of locations that aren't near my job and restaurants, and I could afford a bigger place even in Manhattan, that's just not actually something I care about or want to bother keeping organized until I have a live-in sub or Alex graduates or something. If you don't like it I can ship you somewhere cheap and provide consultation for further culture shock incidents by telepathy."
"I expect I can survive for at least another month at that level, possibly longer. But it isn't that hard to build larger houses for people, even ones who are trying to live in the central City. You just make taller buildings instead of tinier apartments? Which doesn't even imply denser transportation per unit area? We don't settle for living standards as low as what your Civilization thinks is okay for its wealthy psions; we keep poking at bad equilibria until we figure out how to do better, instead of putting up with them. I think you're probably visualizing something horrible and false about Quiet Cities, and once people can actually see what those are like, I will be very shocked if we do not have hundreds of millions of Earth people applying to rest there from their awful-equilibrium Earth situations."
"And you think you can support hundreds of millions of 'em? Actually, I'm curious - what do you come up with if you imagine telling an Earthling about how nice Quiet Cities are, going on about them for a good long time to cover everything, and the Earthling says, 'that sounds awful, because X', what's X."
This is the correct way to argue with a dath ilani. Isabella has named a future-observable, one that could be tested by finding an appropriate Earthling and trying it. It hardly needs saying that if Thellim comes up with a bad prediction in the heat of Very Serious debate, Isabella will immediately pounce on that and offer to bet at high stakes.
Thellim can already feel her brain hastily retreating back from some of its stronger stances, which is not very dignified at all, and she needs to be careful to remember how sane people debated back in her sane homeworld.
"Huh. Give me a minute or two to think out loud about that. Realistically, the number one thing will be something I thought was wonderful and that I didn't realize Earthlings would dislike... though also realistically, we'd set up separate Quiet Cities to accommodate Earthling preferences, if having cities be too silent at night means you can't sleep. If you literally tossed an Earthling direct into a dath ilani Quiet City... then they wouldn't know how to use the transportation, and wouldn't know how to speak Baseline. But that doesn't seem like the intent of your question, so assume a psion fixes that. Then... if you dropped off an Earthling near some average dath ilani like myself, instead of social adepts, the Earthling would conclude that dath ilani are rude and insulting, for reasons I'll hopefully manage to grasp better at some point. Symmetrically, the dath ilani would feel the Earthling lacked the quality my mind translates as 'dignity' for reacting like that; so the dath ilani would remind themselves the Earthling comes from another culture, and try to extend a deliberate tolerance; which the Earthling would feel was rude, insulting, and condescending. Or more generally: there'd be a huge amount of social friction because the Earthling's neighbors wouldn't act the way the Earthling thinks people should act, and vice versa. Or more more generally: the Earthling makes a huge number of bad predictions about how their neighborhood should work, because the Earthling mistakenly thinks they know how a high-tech society of humans should work, and they get around as far as I did when I was making that same mistake about Earth. But that's all still the kind of thing that you fix by building a special Quiet City for Earthlings, and I don't think it meets the intent of your question. You're looking for something more intrinsic to the nature of a Quiet City than that, something we couldn't or wouldn't patch with another five minutes of thinking, so it ends up as an actual issue in practice."
"At least in dath ilan, it's part of the nature of a Quiet City that if you get a well-paying job and start making a lot of your own money, you're supposed to move out. If you have truly ended up in a situation where all of your friends are in that Quiet City, you are not allowed to spend a lot of your money there, only save it. People who moved to Quiet Cities are not supposed to have to deal with social competition from people much wealthier. But that feature is not necessary for a Quiet City, it's just a clever-idea that happened to prove out experimentally; and if Earthlings mostly hated it, we'd just change that rule for the Quiet Earthling City. Actually, now that I say it, I think I remember there being some dath ilani Quiet Cities where you are allowed to move there or stay there even if you happen to be rich, because not everybody likes it the usual way and we understand the concept of exceptions. Also now that I say it, the situation with Earthlings taking refuge in dath ilan will be different from the usual premise of a Quiet City, and that feature may not make sense to impose in the first place."
"There's another class of obvious answers that I suspect still won't meet the intent of your question, but I'm going to say them out loud so my brain can get them out of the way. Some Earthlings will be accustomed to activities with negative externalities that Earth doesn't try to reduce, and those people could end up shocked and annoyed at the thought that we want to put them in a special region with other people who generate the same negative externality. Concretely, people who want to hold loud outdoor parties won't be allowed to move into the same regions as people who want to live with thin windows so they can directly hear outdoor sounds. Our instinctive approach would be to compute a regionalized map of where everybody should live for maximum satisfaction, and it would be easy to make the graph take into account prior friendships and relationships, but somebody at some point is still going to be told they can't live next door to somebody they were previously friends with, or if they do they can't throw loud outdoor parties anymore. I can imagine Earthlings getting very angry at that, if nobody has ever tried to tell them things like that before, and they assume it's all part of a giant plot. We'd set it up so as to make it clear that behavior X corresponds to being excluded from places Y, and try to explain that it's not our fault if their friends want to go to a low-noise city. But I imagine Earthlings getting very upset anyways because they are not used to any government rules like that ever having good intentions or ending well. And I still do not entirely disbelieve that, once submissives are offered the option for it, they will choose to move in great quantity to places that have different rules for how dominants treat submissives. I can imagine dominants feeling forced to follow to those places so they can go on having sex, and then blaming dath ilan for enforcing those unpleasant rules on them..."
"But I observe that my thoughts are following a pattern of, 'We're going to offer people additional options to move to places with different rules, so how would somebody end up pressured by their other incentives into enduring something unpleasant, or losing options they had on Earth because other Earthlings now have more options.' Which does make some sense, since moving to a dath ilani Quiet City would be voluntary, so my instinct is to analyze it using the template for how local harm can end up being done when a system permits more voluntary trades. But I suspect you'd tell me to look outside that comfortable self-flattering picture and think of things that dath ilan would try to mandate on everybody, or set up incentive gradients to force almost everybody into. Even though many people are saying out loud that they don't want that. Which, I say yet again, is something that dath ilan does much less than Earth, because we look at equilibria like that and go 'ew' instead of settling for them, and run experiments and prediction markets to tell us what to do instead. The exceptions to that rule... well, one obvious thing that could turn up is that the remaining people who know why we had to screen off our past, tell us that we have to screen off Earth's past from the rest of dath ilan. Which doesn't seem likely to me? But the whole affair is admittedly mysterious. I mostly think that won't happen, so I'm going to set aside that possibility and try to focus on conditions I'm more sure we would impose."
"Rules we impose on everyone... we do make it difficult for people to destroy their own brains in a socially approved fashion, though we can't realistically prevent it from being easy to do anyways. Approved true suicide is supposed to require an extended discussion with... come to think, it requires an extended discussion with exactly the people who would be responsible for warning someone 'You might end up materializing in Earth if you did that', if that is a thing which the people smarter than me have somehow figured out and classified infohazardous. But that dath ilan society has presumed to take such a parental stance, toward such a private and individual decision, is understood to be a point of great controversy; a rare exception where only the extremely high utilitarian stakes could be balancing the deontology of individualism. I doubt we would resort to the huge efforts required to prevent true suicide from being possible in practice. And if Earthlings complain about the symbolism of the theoretical requirements, they will get a lot of sympathy... and somehow that still does not feel to me like it meets the intent of your question. You are looking for some foul act or prohibition where we'd actually expend the effort to make it stick and think we were justified. But we'd pay rather a lot of attention to somebody screaming 'stop' at us while we were trying to help them! It's not something we'd ignore any more than a virtuous dom ignores a safeword! Yes, brain, that's some very clever and comforting logic there, now reason out in what case that still wouldn't prevent problems. Oh! The shamefully-obvious-in-retrospect issue is that dath ilan may understand Earthlings to have less exclusive control and ownership of their own children than some Earthlings here are accustomed to. In dath ilan you do not get to tell children they cannot learn Baseline during their language-acquisition window, period, no matter what theories you are testing. Children have their own interests and are not just experimental subjects for parents and society. I can imagine us negotiating on such points in order to get more children here and relatively better off, but there are going to be some things we do not negotiate away. It's not going to help that our next best alternative to negotiated agreement is telling the whole Earthling family to stay on Earth and keep their children there too. But I expect us to be offering enough nice things to sad exhausted Earthlings that we are going to push back somewhat and say, no, if a child is crying during their math-traumatization sessions, we are going to yank them out and give them real math lessons instead, that is the price of our refuge..."
"Now that I think about it out loud, it seems like treatment of Earth children is the convergently obvious guess for a problem. The people smarter than me are going to look at the incentive gradients between Earth and dath ilan, figure out how much negotiating leverage we have to ask Earth immigrants to do things differently, and prioritize using that leverage on the most important points. Any points about rescuing children are going to trump all the other points, such that no negotiating leverage gets used on anything else. And then within that category the further priority is going to be giving children enough access to education and mental skills that when they grow up they don't want to impose horrible conditions on their children and propagate a multigenerational moral catastrophe. It's not that we wouldn't care about Earth adults, but we have a greater deontological obligation toward children, and the deontology about letting people make their own mistakes is much stronger for adults. If there's anything that Earth adults wouldn't like about the refuges we'd otherwise build, we're going end up giving way on those points, so we have more ability to ask for different treatment of children; so I predict. Even for childless adults we might decide that we want those Earthlings welcomed in greater numbers, so as to attract more Earth people with children; or the prediction markets may forecast that Earth people are more likely to accept a policy that looks more uniform and doesn't treat childless adults differently. So my answer to your question is that I predict even the Quiet Earthling Cities will impose some standard dath ilani rules on the treatment of children, which some Earth parents won't like. Though usually a Quiet City wouldn't take anyone with children at all, of course, and would require reversible contraceptive implants on entry; but I'll be flabbergasted if that rule doesn't get relaxed for the first generation of Earth refugees."
"They don't, for what I'd consider straightforward reasons. Do you want to try simulating my reasoning even if you don't agree with it, to see if you can pass the imitation test on extrapolating what I'd say was the rationale, even if you think that's not our government's real motive?"
"Let's see - it's not going to be what it would be if there were an Earth government doing this, I guess - you could have a eugenic motive but it would at least be presented differently, like, 'we think this policy delays childbearing in the subset of the population least compatible with Civilization as they feel out whether they can find a role that works for them and then even if they can they are likely to have somewhat fewer', or 'people who go to Quiet Cities disproportionately don't like children for some reason like them being loud or something', or 'children make it difficult to have the people who support the city for the support of passive residents do their jobs efficiently', or 'school is part of Civilization', or 'we tried letting Quiet Citizens have kids but the kids tended to become Quiet Citizens themselves and we didn't want to create a permanent underclass'...?"
"Passed! I mean, some of those statements didn't make sense to me at all, like school being part of Civilization. But still, essentially passed because it's the right general kind of thinking! The main factor you missed is a moral pseudo-rationalization that I wouldn't reasonably expect somebody to predict about an alien civilization. Parents are taking on a - holy? - no, what - taking on a transcendent responsibility to provide for the children they create. It's one thing to ask Civilization to support you, after Civilization failed to provide you with a world you could actively participate in. As a parent you're not supposed to plan on other people supporting your kids. So you should only have kids if you're sure you can support yourself, because if you can't support yourself, you definitely can't support kids. Or from another angle: before you have kids, Civilization naturally owes you something because you're a sapient being born into a world with natural resources. When you have kids, they inherit that claim, and their priority on that claim is higher than yours, so the right to claim Civilization's support passes to your children instead of you. And if that causes people to stop and think and question their decision to take on a parent's responsibilities, that's right and proper; it internalizes some externalities. It presents potential parents with a setup where being wrong about their own capabilities will cost them and not just cost their kids. It forces them to take seriously the question of whether they're ready to assume the transcendent responsibilities of a creator."
"The way we'd phrase the eugenic part is that we don't want the seemingly compassionate act of creating Quiet Cities to backfire into assortatively mating into existence a distinct subspecies of unhappy people, or into the obvious bad equilibrium where some couple that heritably wants infinite children gets loose in a setup that provides unbounded resources. Or a deeper view: deleterious mutations must occasionally lead their bearers to reproduce less, if all of our genetic information isn't to turn into sludge under the entropic pressure of randomization. Without that eugenic concern, we'd probably shrug off the moral argument because it wouldn't matter to consequences, which is why I called it a pseudo-rationalization. You don't want to go around imposing restrictions on people in the name of pretty moral arguments that wouldn't do any good in the world. But conversely, just the eugenic reasoning wouldn't yield a universal rule on its own. Not everybody who goes to a Quiet City is unhappy, or in possession of a bunch of deleterious mutations. They definitely aren't all plotting to have infinite babies. But it would be - dystopian even by our standards? - if we started assessing people's genetics to do utilitarian calculations on which couples were allowed to get pregnant in a Quiet City. When you're asking people to not do things on a societal basis, and threatening to withdraw usually-available positive support from them, it is in general unpleasant to start doing utilitarian calculations to say exactly who falls under the prohibition. It seems - kinder, prettier? - to abide in the more deontological reasoning that parents ought to confidently enter into their transcendent responsibility to support their children, and the parents' claim on the world's resources passes to their children from them."
"Life insurance. Okay, your language has a word for that so it probably exists here too? I think that very few rape victims - in dath ilan, not here - would choose not to take abortifacients, and if they chose not do that, back to the transcendant responsibility again. If a young girl on Earth was pressured by their parents out of taking an abortifacient, we'd probably see that as a special case and make an exception? But more generally it's clear that a lot of Earth people simply don't consider parents responsible for children in the same way we do. You can't yell at aliens who don't share your moral code for violating it, and it's pointless to hit them with penalties they had no idea existed at the time. So I am reasonably certain that the first generation of Earthlings just gets considered as confused victims of Earth's suboptimal equilibria, and allowed into the refuges regardless of whether they have kids. It's possible that our people might ask Earthlings to accept temporary contraceptive implants on entry - I think I might resort to that, for lack of better solutions, if I had to decide everything myself - but I also have a feeling that the people much smarter than I am will come up with much better solutions I'm not seeing, and the prediction markets will predict much better results from them."
"There's this recurring - contempt, disrespect, paternalism - which maybe your more socially specialized conspecifics will be able to adequately disguise, but it doesn't even seem to be on your radar in the first place - I guess probably it won't even matter, it would be so expensive to get large numbers of people between planets -"
"I mostly suspect we will not be able to contact dath ilan at all. Your laws of physics allow for weird poo to occur, our laws of physics do not. I expect that I was copied out of dath ilan at the moment of my death, not moved here, and that my burned remains rest with my airplane. But I grew up in a world full of people much smarter than me, coming up with better solutions than me, and nobody thought I was less a member of Civilization for not being among the top 1%; that would clearly be the wrong way to structure a society. I made mistakes and I didn't hide them, and when I was young enough to need it, my parents and peers congratulated me for having the dignity not to hide them. Your version of dignity and your predicate for insult is - very alien to me, and I am still trying to decipher how much of that is me having specifically been trained not to feel insulted in that way, versus dath ilan having genetically bred for different emotions over however many generations it has been."
"I couldn't tell you. Earthlings are - sensitive to signals that things are about to get into a state of high conflict, and disrespect is usually a precursor. There have been historical events where people coordinated passive resistance instead of getting ready to fight a traditional conflict of some kind but it's not the rule.
"I don't think that - the current state of dath ilan, leaving aside whether it getting that way has a body count or was traumatic for the people who had to participate in the screening off process - is performing worse on most important metrics than the current state of Earth as a whole, maybe even any single Earth country. But it seems to me like it represents a - stable abdication of some values that are important to me, whereas the trend in Earth is to improve on those axes and the ones where dath ilan's currently working better, so I can imagine a future Earth that, with a lot of loss and pain on the way but in its own fashion, becomes better than either is now. And I know you think I'm underestimating dath ilan's willingness to try new stuff and adapt to new ideas but I think the scope of the trials and the legibility of those benefits to the dath ilani value system or the current state of acculturation of the people you'd be testing them on are quite plausibly too limited to discover them."
"If Earth does contact dath ilan, there will be some extremely smart and extremely Serious people whose first reaction is to stare hard at Earth and try to figure out whether you are on a path of greater short-term tragedy but also greater freedom and greater long-term potential. To me it does seem that your world is full of horrifically repressive social organizations that all manage to be repressive in extremely similar ways. But it's also true that there are many fewer solutions that Earth people are told are optimal, and many places where your children are told less about what to think. Or rather, they're told a great deal about what to think, but on topics that are less abstract and important, so in that sense the important things are being left up to them. And the people much smarter than I am would stare at all of the outcomes, looking for something that we'd missed by being too full of clever ideas and careful calculations. That kind of thinking just feels so far out of reach to me, in my current situation, while I'm still struggling so hard just to figure out your overt surface behaviors and never mind what it feels like to be an Earthling deep inside. I will say this much, if it turns out that we've all been doing sex wrong this entire time, there will be an enormous moment of self-reflection and a huge amount of bet-winning credited to Earth."
"Metaphorically. We'll give you respect on a moral level for winning the bets you obviously would have placed with us. And yes, I'm mostly guessing different innate sexualities; but I am still entertaining the possibility that this world is not just a horrifying thought experiment, and to the extent that it isn't, your sexuality could be an organic thing natural to both our kinds that my kind never figured out. It is not - not something it would have made me a good person to think about, in my home world, if I hadn't been given actual cause to think about it - but it's the sort of possibility that a person smarter than me would be carefully keeping track of, in my situation. So I'm pretending to be smarter and pretending to keep track of it."
"Brain's a little tired, to be honest. I should at least take a break before talking more. It's strange how you can read so many novels where a protagonist briefly thinks how they're the wrong person for the problem and then the protagonist tells theirself to shut up and get on with it because they don't actually have other options, and then the protagonist promptly does that; and yet, when it's actually you, even though you know the correct thought-sequence for your situation, you still find yourself thinking how much you're not the right person for the genre you seem to be inside."
Isabella eventually finds Thellim an affordable-enough AirBnB out somewhere quiet upstate; the internet is slower and she has to take a bus to the grocery store but there's negligible traffic noise and more space. She can rent someplace longer term when she has her own money.
Being out of the noisy, smelly, dangerous Earth cities feels much better. Thellim doesn't actually enjoy interacting with most Earthlings; she wishes she did, she knows she ought to cultivate that in herself from a utilitarian standpoint, but it is not fun at all and maybe she'd be wiser to conserve her soul to be spent on other things. Also videoconferencing technology is amazing.
Thellim spends most of her energy trying to parse up Earth, and most of the rest on looking for ideas from dath ilan that can be adapted to make money. It's hard, since Earth is, in fact, locally almost-inexploitable with respect to its wildly distorted local incentives and opportunities. At least Earth is in a form of agent equilibrium, however far below the Pareto boundary and however much people make no effort to get closer to it, rather than it all being an incoherent story postulate rationalized by moon causality. She writes up logical decision theory but local economists and philosophers don't pay much attention. She writes up an explanation of why everybody needs to burn all p-values and use likelihood functions, and that also doesn't get much attention. A friendly economist from George Mason University suggests that she make guest appearances on Econlog, but Thellim turns him down for now.
There's an ordinary couple living fifty meters away from Thellim, a sweet submissive and her equally sweet mistress. Usually in dath ilan one's neighbors are more optimally chosen, but Thellim is not going to not try to talk to her neighbors at all. She tells them she was in the moral equivalent of an eclipse accident and now she's very odd and BDSM makes no sense to her. She doesn't get the impression the couple believes her, but they're very nice about not believing her, and possess something other than dignity that makes them very hard to offend. They once asked Thellim if she was "autistic" and Thellim replied that she did not know that word and there were some wise nods. Thellim looked up the word and shrugged; she's hardly going to act insulted by somebody else coming up with a wrong hypothesis about her in all good epistemic intentions, especially when she's the one who hasn't told them the true answer.
The sub in the couple doesn't seem to be living a horrible life not worth living.
Thellim is still not looking forwards to her own eclipse at all. The Internet and such science as Earth may possess, seem clear on there being no detectable effect of eclipses on personality; including traits correlated with submission, dominance, and specifically masochism. Orientations are often declared, correctly, before someone's lunar-eclipse-nearest-to-12th-birthday. She is still not looking forwards to her own eclipse at all, despite the prospect of gaining magical or psionic powers.
In mid-June Isabella reminds Thellim to start fasting for her eclipse. Water is fine, some zero-calorie beverages are fine if they help take the psychological edge off, absolutely not one bite of food.
[And the moon is not going to perform role-altering magic on you but if you go mad with hunger and think it has please do not kill yourself.]
Thellim is already fasting when Isabella calls. Earth makes it harder to stay healthy, she has some fat worth burning down, and the whole business with counting only and exactly food eaten in the last 48 hours makes extremely little sense to her. So she is fasting extra-long, just in case the rules are different when you're as old as she is.
Thellim hasn't done very much good for Earth yet. But there's so much she could say if she just started blogging one post per day about it, and it's not a forgone conclusion that nobody would listen. From a utilitarian standpoint the correct decision is very clear.
[I don't intend to kill myself. But if I do, please try to call my mother and dath ilan anyways, now and then. I don't think it will ever work, but please try.] She's left a script, just in case.
This is dath ilan, and stories written for Earthlings cannot be set here, because everything would take too long to explain. Every little thing about dath ilan would seem as wildly off as the food on Earth airplanes seemed to Thellim. If you wanted to tell a story about a culture that strange to Earthlings, you'd be wiser to disguise it as being about aliens with pointed ears, or better yet tentacles. You wouldn't be as skeptical of a claim that pointy-eared aliens lived in prettier, quieter cities. Thellim wouldn't have been as surprised if tentacle monsters had weirdly bad food on airplanes.
This is dath ilan, and stories for Earthlings cannot be set here, because the ways diverged too long ago.
Around a seemingly identical sun spins a planet with seemingly identical continents to Earth, and very different social forms: this is dath ilan.
You're curious about this planet's history, which the dath ilani themselves are permitted to guess, but not remember? You wonder how their society ended up so supposedly well-coordinated? You wonder if there were secret police or drugs in the water, at least at first?
Or maybe you're not so curious about its history. In that case you can skip to the end. But if you're curious -
You could find little moments, here and there in dath ilan's history. What if another world's equivalent of the Ashkenazi merchant network had been studying a Pythagorean mystery-cult focused on alchemy, in their off-hours, instead of putting their cultural efforts into the minutia of Torah? What if some of those alternate-world Ashkenazis had invented gunpowder? Or what if some grand Pharoah-Emperor of the South American continent had recruited a harem of nubile mathematicians, and been blindly imitated by nobles for centuries after? What if, in some alternate Indo-European religious empire with a caste system that put an increasingly wealthy and powerful merchant caste underneath an increasingly decrepit warrior caste, Martin Luther and Adam Smith had been the same person, nailing a set of theses to a church door that included the praises of trade over war?
But history is not made up of striking unusual moments that resonate with grand themes. Earth itself would contain its own share of fortunate coincidences, if you went hunting. Do you think every timeline contains a version of Francis Bacon who systematizes science and happens to praise the decentralization of epistemic authority while he's writing? Do you think every timeline that sees the conceptualization of races and racial strife will also experience a Gandhi and a Martin Luther King? In most timelines, conquerors don't just happen to discover a new-to-them continent, don't manage to wipe out all the local advanced civilizations with plagues; and then just happen to devise a novel democracy (for only their race's males, of course) in the emptied territories, and have that democracy work unprecedently well for a century or two. None of that happened in dath ilan's history, just like Jews didn't invent gunpowder in yours.
So all of the striking anecdotes are meaningless, in the end, and convey only an illusion of history.
This is dath ilan, and from Earth's perspective, the very different social forms seem very uniform across their whole planet. The term "monoculture" springs to mind, if you are an Earthling.
An average dath ilani might protest in reply that, from their own perspective, all of Earth's governments make weirdly similar mistakes. This average dath ilani might (after learning more of Earth's culture) give the example of an American tourist who thinks that India has a monoculture, in that they all have weird food and the people all speak Foreign. Earthlings seem diverse to Earthlings, the dath ilani would claim, and dath ilani seem diverse to dath ilani.
A smarter dath ilani would concede the point after ten minutes of reading Wikipedia. Dath ilani are in nearly uniform agreement that too much uniformity is bad, and that individual diversity needs to be protected. This is more agreement than you could get out of Earth people on the physical shape of their planet.
How did this cultural uniformity come about, in dath ilan's hidden history? Isabella suspected a great deal of genocide, and there was in fact some of that, though not as much as Isabella was thinking. The doctrine of that early Adam-Smith-Martin-Luther religion made it technically sinful to go around declaring war on other countries. That didn't stop the Empire any more than it would have stopped Catholics or Jews; their priests, too, had skill with technicalities. The Imperators at the time tended to find some other plausible-sounding reason to set up a trade center just outside a barbarian state, full of tempting goods and fat-looking merchants just begging to be robbed. When the inevitable happened, the Empire would descend in all righteous retaliation and exterminate the barbarian nobility, with their priesthood's full blessing.
The Empire made some effort to preserve the lives of barbarian civilians, but no effort to preserve barbarian cultures. For it was the doctrine of their state religion and elite philosophers that individual people had life and worth, and groups did not. (The priesthood that Adam-Smith-Martin-Luther had rebelled against had said quite the opposite.)
In time there was an Empire that had only a single great rival left, in the Pharoahdom of the American continents. And if you were an Earthling you might expect that would not end well. But the Empire had their Adam-Smith-Martin-Luther and a voluntarist ideology, and the Pharoahdom's mandarins were descended from nobles that had long bred themselves with mathematicians. Both States had already become wealthy enough to experiment with rich-country features like democracy or having a conscience. Each State had imitated successful aspects of the other. There was some of the grand rivalry you might have expected; but for reasons that historical anecdotes would only give an illusion of explaining, the Empire and Pharaohdom were already far beyond mercantilism in their understanding of economics. For those same strange reasons, the citizens channeled their patriotic rivalry into offering easier business licenses and competing to host more of the international economy. Trade agreements were signed, borders opened, citizens exchanged and intermarried, essays published about possible voting systems, and in time an agreement was signed that merged Empire and Pharoahdom into a new democracy that called itself Civilization.
The last holdouts against Civilization were agricultural tribes scattered across the far South Americas and New Zealand. By then Civilization had grown enough of a conscience that those cultures were left in place. Those who elected to leave entirely were given all the gifts of civilization; those who stayed did not have strange things forced into their presence by way of gifts offered to their neighbors. The voters of Civilization insisted on sending in occasional armored missionaries, to advertise that technology existed, for the sake of offering their children the choice. There were dath ilani who agonized about how few children did take that choice, in those remaining cultures where math was never studied. But it was argued that there was also a danger in uniformity, in taking choices away; and it was not as if the fate of all human beings was not the same, in the end.
Then cryonics was invented, and that was the end. The arithmetic of Civilization's moral calculations changed drastically; it was said that any mistake could be made up to someone in time, but for the mistake of letting their brain be destroyed. Scrupulous people agonized over the choice but they could not suggest a better one. So the missionaries of Civilization took up tasers, and imposed enough presence on the tribes to make sure they collected the souls of every corpse, whenever their time came. Inevitably the children became curious, the impressively invincible outsiders told the truth as they saw it and offered options to individuals, and soon there was no culture anywhere in dath ilan except the one that called itself Civilization.
And all of that is just another meaningless historical anecdote. It doesn't explain why dath ilan is more of a monoculture than India or the United States, which also have central governments.
This is dath ilan, and you wonder how it ended up the way it did, if it wasn't a matter of striking anecdotes. The dath ilani themselves would give you puzzled looks, if you asked how they ended up so unusual. It's not just that they don't remember their past. You remember the past, and you'd still give an alien a look of Requesting Further Clarification if they asked you how Earth ended up so weird. The dath ilani don't have observations telling them they're special among timelines; they don't know what unusual fact you think needs to be explained.
And there's a wisdom in that puzzled reply, though knowing it may not help you; there's a sense in which dath ilan is ordinary. Travel outside the volume that your telescopes can see, and you will find sapient aliens who use the same numbers you do, zero-one-two-three. If they've developed to the point of axiomatizing their mathematics, they may not use the first-order Peano axioms to formalize arithmetic, but that doesn't mean they'll believe different truths about numbers. Set theory using the negation of the axiom of infinity will give you precisely the same theorems as Peano arithmetic.
And long before humans formalized anything, they counted none-one-two-three, as can crows if you don't ask them to count much higher. It's not a strange guess that distant aliens would count the same. You wouldn't expect to find a different 'two' around most other stars, on average; there isn't that much room to make up actually-different variations on the numbers that maintain usefulness. If natural selection builds an organism that can grasp numbers at all, that organism will probably grasp the universal (and indeed transuniversal) form of 'two'.
When it comes to the science-and-technology attractor itself, the central structures are more complicated. Probability and Utility are very simple in an absolute sense, to be sure, but more complicated in their metaphysics than Numbers. Even among the Earthlings who've heard of such mathematical structures at all, very few know the theorems spotlighting their central or unique properties. But long before humans learn any of that stuff, they can intuitively grasp that theories which made wrong predictions last time are less likely to make good predictions next time. That is a large-enough fragment of Probability to power what Earthlings call 'science'.
And science feeds on itself, and feeds technology and is fed by technology. So it's no coincidence that a timeline which builds advanced microprocessors is also likely to possess airplanes. When you see aliens that have stainless steel, your first thought is not that they are specially adept with metals, but that they have wandered some little way into the science-technology attractor.
Look across the superclusters, and most entities either don't do natural-number arithmetic at all, like stars and rocks; or they do it perfectly up to the limits of bounded cognition, like galaxy-spanning superintelligences. If there's anything odd about humans, it's the way that humans are only halfway finished being sucked into attractors like that.
Though Earth has done very little of its homework on the subject, as yet, there are central mathematical structures for aggregating beliefs, utilities, and strategies across multiple agents. They speak of multi-agent arrangements which incentivize behaviors from all individual agents such that the collective strategy ends up on the Pareto frontier of outcomes that cannot be made simultaneously better for all agents. They speak of the aggregate acting with non-dominated strategies, meaning that the aggregate itself can be seen as behaving coherently with respect to some probability function and utility function. They speak of symmetrical divisions of the gains from coordination, and response functions to mildly asymmetrical arrangements, such that no agent expects to gain by demanding a different arrangement. Shards of that structure are embedded in humans in traits like honor and fairness; though, alas, the human versions of those traits don't scale up too well, when extended from tribes to countries.
Dath ilan has a slightly bigger shard of Coordination - within many messy dimensions, that are imperfect reflections of higher structures, that in their unbounded forms would mesh together as perfectly as numbers; which is the ultimate explanation for why the messy bounded reflections manage to reinforce each other and form an attractor. That's all there is to it, in a sufficiently abstract sense: dath ilan has wandered a little further into the attractor for coordination. Dath ilan has even invented some bits of math that Earth did not discover independently, to know what it is that they know; they are doing it on purpose, now. But of course they haven't nearly gone all the way, and most entities in the universe that coordinate at all are doing it much better.
You're not satisfied with that? Well, fine, you can be told about some of the actual mechanisms; but in the end you may not see why they work, or work that well. Take somebody from an earlier stage of Earth's history, from before Earth wandered as far into the science-technology attractor; try telling them about the fragment of Probability called science. That child of an earlier Earth might be skeptical that the ritual of running experiments could produce that much difference in the average truthfulness of what future specially-clothed anointed priests would believe, compared to current specially-clothed anointed priests. A credulous early-Earthling might say that surely God does a better job of advice than fallible humans staring at Nature with their own eyes. A cynical early-Earthling might ask if these future priests might experience their own interests about what to say to people; or have their own ways of profiting from lying; or if they could placate powerful patrons by a clever choice of which experiments to perform. And those cynics wouldn't be wrong. But the ritual of experiment-performance still turns out to make a large difference in practice, even as performed by imperfect people. That's not a law of human societies an earlier Earthling would see in advance, if they didn't start out knowing everything you take for granted. Neither faith or cynicism would find it self-image-congruent to say that science works, if they were looking for faithful or cynical things to say. You'd need to know about the shard of Probability, or have dimly glimpsed it at least.
In Earth people think up ideas for what groups should do, argue for them on moral grounds, and sometimes do them, usually to catastrophic effect. The wiser Earthlings learn that attempts at improvement are usually counterproductive; they learn that lofty-sounding ideas usually fail; they learn that they are helpless.
On dath ilan they do small-scale experiments, they actually use their shard of Probability; that is something an Earthling might understand. But Earth also has history, and history books, in fact they have more history books than dath ilan; even some experiments get done; the problem is that Earth doesn't learn from them. It's the more important step that dath ilan uses prediction markets, a shard of Coordination, to aggregate what its people know into a collective-belief-function; and uses that to predict the result of policy proposals, thereby actually learning when somebody does an experiment. It does, in fact, make a difference. And on the meta-level also, the dath ilani have learned (as a people and not just isolated individuals) which electoral processes and which institutional structures will have which consequences.
So many of dath ilan's institutions became mostly more-or-less effective, and they could focus more of their attention on the parts that were still going wrong. The system reflected on itself and optimized itself, and went further into the attractor.
Of course, since they're still only human, dath ilan now has other issues which an Earthling might naturally blame on "too much coordination". (The science-technology attractor is not without its issues either.) The dath ilani have happened across the group-aggregation equivalent of a helpful genie in a bottle, and now go around wishing for more and more nice-seeming final observables. They've noticed the tendency, and they're trying to fight it, but the wishes are so attractive and they end up doing it anyways.
As for dath ilan's monoculture, that's what happens if you wish upon your genie for policies that are predicted to end up with more children learning math; as a side effect, everybody ends up agreeing on the shape of the planet. That's what happens, when you collectively determine which aspects of society have critically important optima that matter more than diversity and variance; and then encourage doing things the optimal way in those dimensions, while encouraging diversity and variance everywhere else; and carefully building side-paths and exception-handlers in case the clever rules don't work for somebody. You end up with, as Earth would see it, an enormous flaming monoculture.
This is dath ilan; and a few generations before Thellim's time, when people were stupider than in her time but smarter than in Earth, laws and legislation were passed by Nine Legislators, with power flowing to them from 324 Representatives of Civilization who negotiated with those Legislators for influence on the points their factions cared about. In turn, those 324 Representatives represented roughly forty thousand Electors, elected by five million Delegates, delegated-to by six hundred and fifty million voting dath ilani.
The notion, they might have explained, was that in Civilization there is always a particular person you've personally chosen to wield your political power, who knows you personally, who you can talk to when you have political concerns. In that age, people chose Delegates; who then chose Electors, who could talk to them personally, when the sum of a Delegate's voters were getting worried; the Electors could talk to Representatives, who could talk to Legislators. (And it was forbidden for somebody who'd ever served as a Delegate to become an Elector or Representative; the Delegates were meant to be people who actually wanted to be Delegates, people who actually wanted to spend their lives working with the ordinary other people, not frustrated ambitious would-be Electors. Electors were well-paid people of greater ambitions, but those ambitions could not include becoming Representatives; for the Electors were meant to be working for their Delegates, and not for some larger political machine that had the power to dole out Representative seats. And you could not become a Legislator if you had previously been a Representative or Elector; it was a job reserved for people who had excelled at some other art than politics.)
Then and now, the Very Serious People in dath ilan would not call Earth's institutions by the term that translates to them as "democracy". The dath ilani would consider it disqualifying that many Earthlings feel like they don't really get much of a choice in their supposed political representation, and feel helpless to negotiate with political powers at any scale. The dath ilani would also consider Earth's parliaments to be undemocratically large, because nobody could actually keep track of what was going on inside of them. A few generations before Thellim's time, the limit was 9 legislators publicly negotiating with each other, at the top and final level of political representation. 9 * 8 / 2 = 36 pairwise interactions was the most that a dath ilani of moderately below-average intelligence for that epoch could reasonably be asked to track.
Citizens can't control processes they can't see. For that clever-reason it was then illegal for any of the Nine Legislators to meet with each other, or speak with any Representative, except as a matter of public record. An Earthling instinctively flinches away from this idea; they know instinctively that a majority of Earth voters are not grownups, and would be outraged at the tiny fragments of sanity that still exist in Earth's politics at all and prevent the nukes from being launched. But dath ilan was already grown past that stage. For them, the rule was wise, or at least not obviously stupid.
But Civilization was also grownup enough to understand that well-intentioned rules could have unforeseen consequences. They considered their institutions trustworthy enough to grant them exceptions and exception-handlers, rather than trying to chain them down absolutely. So the Nine Legislators could lawfully meet in private, or even in secret, if the highest Keeper was there to listen.
The Keepers were an order older than Civilization, with an immense momentum behind them of promise-keeping, of abiding in the Algorithm that underlies all trust. Their name, to the extent it translates, was the Keepers of Highly Unpleasant Things it is Sometimes Necessary to Know. Among other tasks they hosted practitioners of the sort of methods of rationality that can make life less fun to live, but which Civilization might suddenly need at some point. They deliberately went further into some cognitive attractors than you would if you were just trying to live a human life well-lived; they embedded bounded shards of coldly perfect structures into their cognition, and did their best to maintain their mental integrity in the face of that. They invented Confessors, swore Confessors to secrecy, and monitored them. Above all else, the Keepers kept their oaths, tried to make themselves into people who would keep their oaths, and had done nontrivial amounts of assortative mating to that end. The Keepers had no official powers of violence under law, back then, but their social power was great enough to be considered a counterbalance to the government itself. When the Leo Szilard of dath ilan first realized that fission chain reactions were possible, she eventually told the government, but she talked it over with the Keepers first.
This is dath ilan; and a few generations before Thellim's time, the highest of the Keepers called together the Nine Legislators in a secret meeting. Shortly after, the highest Keeper and the Nine called an emergency closed assembly of the 324 Representatives.
And the highest Keeper said, with the Nine Legislators at the peak of dath ilan standing beside her, that the universe had proven to be a harsher and colder and more dangerous place than had been hoped.
And that all Civilization needed to turn much of its effort away from thriving, and toward surviving. There needed to be controls and slowdowns and halts instituted on multiple major technologies. Which would need to be backed up by much more pervasive electronic surveillance than anybody had ever even considered allowing before. Roughly a fifth of all the present and future smart people in the world ought to publicly appear to burn out or retire, and privately work on a new secret project under maximum-security conditions. Also more of the smartest people needed to be nudged more strongly into mating with each other, worrying less about the speciation dangers of assortative mating, and more about producing the smartest possible future researchers as early as possible.
And so long as they were doing all that anyways, they might as well also carry out the less important but still useful operation of putting all of Civilization's past behind the most complete possible causal screen. That part wasn't as important, but still legitimately helpful; and doing it would help to overshadow the other changes, and lead to less attention going to the more dangerous places.
The reasoning behind this policy could, in principle, be laid out to the 324 Representatives. But that would represent a noticeable additional risk, if it happened now, while mechanisms to prevent information propagation hadn't been set up yet. Another 324 not-fully-filtered people knowing, now, would be too many. So the Representatives would need to trust the Keeper and Legislators on this.
The Representatives were not too frightened. They had all individually deduced that this was almost certainly some kind of experiment or systemic test. None of them said so out loud, of course, because they didn't want to invalidate whatever-was-being-tested by giving some answer different than they would have given in real life. So the Representatives debated among themselves, all trying to act and even think exactly the same way they would in real life; and not for long, because in real life, this obviously would reflect some kind of massive emergency.
And the Representatives finally replied that, in this case, they did not think that the trust placed in them by all Civilization permitted them to assent to this massive policy change without further explanation. They would not have predicted in advance that the Nine Legislators and the highest Keeper would come before them with a massive lie for purposes of personal gain, particularly not a lie as strange as this one. But even less would they have advance-predicted some mysterious emergency like that to be real; and to assent to the proposed change, under that protocol, would be setting up the wrong system incentives in the world that was most probably the case.
The highest Keeper nodded and said that was very sensible of them.
Then she took out a microgrenade and blew apart her own brain.
The meaning of this act is approximately impossible to convey across the cultural gap between Earth and dath ilan. An Earthling will not feel what a dath ilani feels, hearing that, no matter how much of the context gets explained.
On Earth, committing suicide might be seen as an important statement and an indicator of real seriousness; at least if treated with cues of seriousness by the media, like a Thai monk setting themselves on fire. It would work to convey that a real emergency was going on, and that this wasn't a test. It wouldn't suffice to push through a revolution in the basic forms of government and civilization. Just setting yourself on fire can't overcome a credibility gap that large, and an Earthling would feel incredulous at the idea that it might. People sometimes do strange things, after all, and sometimes sacrifice their lives for less than perfect reasons.
In dath ilan, it was interpreted differently. There is nobody who an Earthling expects to make sense in the way that a smart dath ilani expects a high-ranked Keeper to make sense. Very few Earthlings have an inkling of what that kind of sense is, let alone expect anyone to make it.
If the Keeper had committed ordinary suicide - retired to cryonic suspension - that might have made sense. It would have made the point, to start with, that it was in fact a real emergency; and that one of two non-advance-predicted things had actually happened in real life, meaning that one's sense of prior probabilities needed to be discarded as having already failed to serve.
An ordinary suicide would have made some progress on showing the honesty of the emergency measures, too. It's not inconceivable to a dath ilani that the head Keeper might betray her oaths and the Algorithm in pursuit of some selfish benefit. They try to avoid defections in reality, but they have a single-syllable word for 'game-theoretic defection' because of how often it comes up in counterfactuals. It's not even inconceivable that the Keeper could persuade all Nine Legislators to go along with her, though the Nine had come from many walks of life. So retiring to cryonic suspension would have been a way for the Keeper to prove, or rather strongly argue, that she had not been hoping to benefit selfishly from her extraordinary request; to show that she was submitting herself to the judgment of future Civilization regarding it. Though even then, it wouldn't be inconceivable that the Keeper would betray her oaths in order to act nonselfishly towards some other person or faction, while defecting against all the rest of Civilization, counting on the future's impersonal forgiveness. But it would be less likely. And for all of the Nine Legislators, from their many walks of life, to also go along with it - that would not be likely at all.
An ordinary suicide might possibly have made sense, given the absolutely extraordinary circumstances.
You wouldn't do it anyways, because you wouldn't want to set up an incentive for political leaders to be people willing to commit suicide. That's putting your government into a weird and dangerous shape.
And in dath ilan you would not set up an incentive where a leader needed to commit true suicide and destroy her own brain in order to get her political proposal taken seriously. That would be trading off a sacred thing against an unsacred thing. It would mean that only true-suicidal people became leaders. It would be terrible terrible system design.
So if anybody did deliberately destroy their own brain in attempt to increase their credibility - then obviously, the only sensible response would be to ignore that, so as not create hideous system incentives. Any sensible person would reason out that sensible response, expect it, and not try the true-suicide tactic.
If, ignoring that, somehow your true suicide could get people to take an otherwise incredible proposal seriously - even then, no child of dath ilan would do that. It would be too sad. That's the dath ilani reaction that an Earthling wouldn't really feel inside, that it would be just way too sad. Even if Civilization followed your proposal and was saved, you wouldn't be there to see it. People in the future would want to thank you, if you'd turned out to be right after all, and they'd look around for you and not be able to find you. It would be contrary to utilitarianism (for the one less soul alive), contrary to deontology (for having destroyed a soul, as must never be done even if it seems like a good idea), contrary to personal virtue (for the desire to live is also part of a healthy mind), contrary to aesthetics (for all the bright sentiments it would contradict), contrary to good design for aggregative systems (for you wouldn't want to set up an incentive like that), contrary to reason, contrary to the Light itself. It would go against the theme and song of Civilization that nobody gets left behind, not ultimately left behind, that everyone in dath ilan is joining hands together against outcomes that are bitter in the very end.
The Keeper destroyed her own brain before the assembled Representatives. That was an act that any sane person could judge as wrong whatever the hidden backstory - if your prior reasoning, and expectations, and the whole system and world you thought you were living inside, had the meaning you thought it did.
It was an act of desperation and shattered assumptions and horror.
The Representatives did not scream and run around, for they were also the peak of dath ilan. They did not fight to retain their old assumptions, or maintain a pretense of calm, for that too is childish. They noticed and updated and started taking the matter actually seriously, and the world changed.
This is dath ilan, and stories written for Earthlings cannot be set here, because everything takes way way way too long to explain. Dath ilan diverged from Earth too long ago. You think you know how a high-tech human civilization is supposed to work, and you're around as correct as Thellim was about Earth during her first few days. There are underground car tunnels hivecombing dath ilan, and you want to know how dath ilan builds underground car tunnels so much more cheaply than Earth builds subways; and the dath ilani would give you a puzzled look, and say that the energy and raw materials just don't cost that much and aren't that complex to transform at scale; and that won't seem like an answer to you either. Your brain knows how a human society ought to work; and any description of Civilization will insult you with endless claims that you were confidently wrong; if you step back and ask "Why?" the answers will just insult you again.
But still - if you'd aspire to take into yourself a slightly larger shard of Coordination - you might find it useful to consider this question, and try to foresee dath ilan's answer:
How would a better-coordinated human civilization treat the case where somebody hears a voice inside their head, claiming to be from another world?
Note the first: Dath ilani do sometimes go insane. They have subjected their brains to sharp recent selection pressures. On the scale of all Civilization, it happens with great statistical regularity every day that many dath ilani hear voices inside their heads. Nor is it unusual for that voice to claim to be speaking on behalf of aliens or neighboring quantum branches of humanity. By assumption, you know this.
Note the second: By assumption, you know nothing about any worlds from outside Civilization. You are living in a reality that has seemed extremely regular up until this point. So you could justifiably reason out an extreme prior confidence that - even if aliens or parallel timelines could impinge on your planet - they would be extremely unlikely to first-contact your world as a voice inside some random person's head.
But also note: If you approach this question by imagining the dath ilani acting like Earthlings and Earth governments would, when Earth people become confident that they know better than their lessers, you will not see through to the central structure. If you imagine the use of force, or lies to avoid force, you will be imagining events that Civilization always spends at least five minutes thinking about how to avoid.
You might predict better, in the end, by asking yourself what is the right course, not "What would dath ilan do?" Dath ilan itself is asking the former question, not the latter one.
The structure at the center of coordination is locally incentivizing actions that move multi-agent strategies closer to the Pareto frontier of outcomes that cannot be improved for all agents simultaneously. In more advanced civilizations, the citizens may know more, but they do not thereby want what the larger civilization wants them to want. The art of civilization, then, consists of shaping incentives.
A grandmother-aged woman sits quietly in an automatic car with fully blacked-out walls and doors, sweating into her clothes. She has decided not to weep or have a breakdown, but she can't control the sweating.
She can't see where the car is going, though she knows the final destination very well. It's taking a long time to make the trip, longer than anybody bothers to put on-screen in the movies where something like this happens. It's... unpleasant.
(This is dath ilan, and several excellent movies - scripted by highly intelligent writers partially supported by the will of Civilization to help produce public goods - have started with somebody hearing a voice inside their head. Everybody who sees a movie like that will know, as a matter of cliche, what you ought to do conditional on the voice inside your head being real.
And if the voice isn't real? Then you ought to do the same thing for different reasons. It may not end that way in the movies, or at least not nearly as often, but those positive incentives have also been arranged and publicized.
The blacked-out car isn't there as cruelty, to scare her, or to prevent her from seeing where she's going. She knows where she's going. And cruelty above all is something that dath ilani would never tolerate from their government, for hurting people is wrong.
The blacked-out surfaces are there to prevent other people from seeing her, if their own automatic cars pass her by. After all, if the voice in her head was real, that would definitely be a gigantic unknown-magnitude infohazard situation. People who hear voices in their heads and believe them real will do what they think they must, to act rightly and protect others. Their path can and should be eased, especially in the direction Civilization wants them to take.)
The car slows to a halt, the blackened doors open, and the woman steps out.
An empty corridor takes her to a doorway, and a sign reminding her to leave behind all metals. She had known that part was coming, from movies, and had believed she left all her metals at home already. Just before she steps forward, she remembers an oathring that she hasn't taken off in thirty years.
With a sad twinge on a very sad day, the woman wrestles the oathring off her finger and drops it in a receptacle provided.
Then the woman steps through a high-powered metal detector, which passes her without complaint.
A doorway-opening slides firmly shut behind the woman, and locks her inside a room with cheerful rose-colored walls.
If everything works according to the movies - which it no doubt does, they wouldn't show it if it wasn't true - then the woman is almost but not quite inside a psychiatric hospital right now.
This sealed room is definitely not part of that hospital, however, nor has she yet been intaken.
"No," the woman says. She's trying to keep as much of her dignity as possible, including not allowing her voice to crack. "I reported the experience of hearing a voice inside my head, claiming to be from a human civilization in an alternate-possibility world. I am, not unaware, of the extremely likely divergence between this experience and reality."
"Are you aware of any other cognitive distortions? Such as might well occur even if the voices were real, if their method of contacting you imposed stress? If the voices in your head agree that the situation is not time-critical, we usually prefer to take a general cognitive inventory first -"
"I am not aware of any other cognitive distortions, other than those associated with severe emotional stress, horror, dismay, sadness, disgust with myself. Erler, I would - find it kinder - if you went ahead and performed the test. The voice in my head says that it understands why I think I'm insane, but it wants me to hold myself together anyways. It presented an argument about how important this scenario is, if it's real. It's - stressful."
(It's not what standard intake procedure calls for. But dath ilan has an un-Earthly attitude towards procedure, and towards kindness, and towards understanding that bureaucrats make exceptions in order to be kind. Show most dath ilani a clever idea for a rule, and their first thought is of how that rule might go wrong, and what escape hatches need to be built around it for people it might not fit.)
"All right then. Is the voice from a relatively advanced agency? As seems implied from its ability to reach here and talk in your -"
"You do not need to walk me through the reasoning. Yes, the voice claims to be from a technologically advanced human civilization, with better computers than ours, in fact, supposedly the person behind the voice is sitting in front of their version of a Network terminal right now, please just do the test."
(You might wonder, if you're from Earth, why Erler pronounced the question so carefully. It's impossible for a mental patient to actually get the answer right, after all. And - an Earthling might imagine - if Erler did claim a patient had gotten it right, wouldn't everyone promptly believe that he was lying or crazy?
This is why Erler does not know the correct answer himself, and is entering Helorm's answer into a numpad.
Erler is also tested with fake patients on a regular basis, to make sure he asks the question correctly. And those fake patients sometimes give correct answers to the math question, to make sure the system is functioning correctly and would detect any correct answers given.
It's not that dath ilan thinks that any of their prospective mental patients are actually likely to be talking to powerful entities, when they hear voices inside their heads.
It's that Civilization has made representations to prospective mental patients that this test is fair. So of course it's going to be fair. It has not actually occurred to Helorm that this test might be faked. If that thought did occur to her, she would correctly estimate that if the test was found to be faked, it would be a civilization-shaking scandal, and anyone who had anything to do with it any way would be fired, and the entire dath ilani Legislature and Keeper leadership would resign for bearing ultimate responsibility.
The government is not supposed to defect in the Prisoner's Dilemma. Not even the Epistemic Prisoner's Dilemma. It doesn't matter how sure you are that you're right and the other person is wrong. When Civilization promises cooperation to somebody in exchange for their own cooperation, Civilization cooperates with them, full stop.)
Erler finishes entering the numbers that Helorm recites.
He's not surprised when the screen goes blank immediately after. Erler already suspected that this case was a drill; it's not usually the case that a mental patient is both aware of the seeming insanity and reporting a total absence of other detectable cognitive distortions. That's more like the start of a book where the First Contact is actually real.
Erler is extremely surprised when the door to his own sealed room fails to unlock a few seconds later.
Helorm's telescreen flashes a blue CORRECT when she finishes reciting the numbers, just the way it happens in movies, and then goes black.
Oh. Apparently she's insane in a way that fakes her sensory experiences.
"Tsi-imbi," Helorm says, her voice unwavering in her dignity. "I experienced the screen saying the answer was correct." In real life, the person on the other side of the screen should still be watching her, if she managed to get into the car at all. Civilization will know what to do to take care of her from now on.
(An exception has been thrown from Civilization's normal processes.
That happens now and then, in a system the size of Civilization.
This particular exception has never been thrown before. If you were reasoning through the circumstances of that exception in advance, you would reason that perhaps some enterprising person with unusual motivations had somehow arranged to disable the metal-detector or otherwise smuggle a radio transceiver through the system. That's probably it, since the alternative is crazy.
The alternative is also much more important. Actually, even somebody with that much spare time and ingenuity, starting to wreak havoc on Civilization, would also be important. But the alternative is much more important than that, and Civilization was not in fact expecting this exception to be thrown at all. Most people with that much spare time and ingenuity can find more fun ways to spend their time, with less extreme personal repercussions.
One situation is impossible, the other situation is improbable, and the very smart people of dath ilan know better than to think that in that situation they know which of the two must be the case. This pathway was not predicted to execute at all, in Civilization's code, and that's why an exception is being thrown.)
The screen lights again, showing a grandfather-aged man with a much more serious expression.
"Exception handling. I am Derrin. Your answer was correct. I realize you may now suspect you're immersively insane. I observe that in such case you've already done everything that Civilization asked of you to handle that contigency. In the name of Civilization, of sapience, and of the Light, I beg you to assume this situation is real and act accordingly. Under the Algorithm, Civilization now asks you for your cheerful price: to report to me with total honesty and sustainably-best exactness everything said by the voice inside your head; and to transmit back my own words with total honesty and sustainably-best exactness; neither deliberately omitting nor deliberately adding nor changing, in either direction of transmission; your services as transceiver to last for the duration of this entire situation as reasonably defined; with payment understood to be conditional upon this situation proving to be a true First Contact situation."
Helorm shuts her eyes. She hates this. She does not want this. She wishes this was over. The hard part was supposed to be over thirty seconds ago, when she would get the verification question wrong.
She thinks, briefly, and then names an amount of money equal to 2^24 times the worth of an hour of unskilled labor.
(This is the dath ilani equivalent of saying "one billion dollars". 16,777,216 hours is a proverbial amount of wealth such that you can buy yourself, and all of your relatives and friends, everything that would make a sane person actually happy, for the rest of your lives.
Helorm isn't being greedy, just doing what she can to take things at face value for a little while longer. If she named a small price, the Keeper might be worried she'd feel tempted to pursue things that weren't the good of Civilization; and nobody wants to spend any extra time thinking about that during an emergency situation. 2^24 is the amount that people name in movies, which happens because that decision seems obviously normal and correct to a dath ilani audience.
Obviously, before naming that amount under the Algorithm, Helorm mentally checked to make sure she'd actually go through with the cliche number as her cheerful price, regardless of any worries about whether her situation was real. Mere worries about whether anything is real occupy a much lower level of priority than true-commitment.)
Helorm repeats this as best she can. "The voice says no, apart from a nonspecific preference that contact situations including-this-situation be handled expeditiously." Even if it's an imaginary situation, she did promise diligence under an algorithm more sacred than that. "It's speaking not-Baseline into my head, and I feel like precise recodings would use a lot of extra code to capture nuances that aren't monosyllabically encodable in Baseline. Would you rather I speak faster and get the translation not-quite-right?"
"I speak for a tiny subfaction within a parallel version of humanity," Helorm says, and pauses, listening to the voice in her head again. "Our own intentions are positive-sum cooperation with dath ilan, under negotiated treaty conditions protecting this world, but we cannot speak for our world."
(If you tsi-imbi in a way that verbally reports you're having full-scale immersive experiences that witnesses recognize as false, they're supposed to rush in and sedate you. This is specifically so that anybody who lands in a seemingly unbelievable situation, who tries to tsi-imbi that, will know that the situation is real if they notice themselves still being awake and undrugged after a short delay.
It's not that dath ilan expects anybody to actually land in an impossible situation, of course. But dath ilan collectively expects its residents to sometimes be mistaken about what's impossible. Dath ilan has crafted its procedures to reduce concerns about ongoing private hallucinations in those cases. "When you're dreaming you don't know you dream, but when you're awake you know you're awake," as the pseudo-paradoxical-truism goes. Maybe when you're crazy, you can not-notice you're sedated; but when you're awake and noticing you're not at all drugged, that's a distinguishable mental state from being too asleep to know you're dreaming.)
The Keeper is reading stored information on Helorm and has already spotted the most obvious thing that makes Helorm unusual and a potential First Contact point, assuming this is not a prank. The Keeper has already figured out why intelligent contactors might reasonably decide to withhold this information from Helorm, since it is of potentially great emotional valence and that would introduce conversational delays.
"Then I believe I have deduced it," says the Keeper using his auditory track. "The situation in dath ilan is largely on-trend since then. Before I ask the next verification question, are there any priority points I ought to be immediately aware of?"
(Though a dath ilani author would recognize it as a disreputable easy out with respect to faking the presentation of high intelligence, it remains true that some unusually smart dath ilani are able to pursue more than one track of thought at once, and read using visual thinking while talking using auditory thinking.
For most purposes that smart people ought to be spending their time on, it's a party trick. For purposes of handling complicated novel time-sensitive emergencies, it makes practical sense to employ somebody who can do the party trick.)
"Possible priority point one," Helorm repeats. She can tell the Keeper is talking over her head, in a way that Helorm wouldn't expect even a person-much-smarter-than-her to be able to do with an arbitrary alien civilization that just showed up. But she's insane, and in that case so what; or if not, if it's all real, good for ridiculously high-ranked Keepers. "Our world has not causally screened off its past. We don't know how important this is because we don't know why dath ilan did so."
Derrin is among roughly a million persons in dath ilan who know why the past was screened, though they do not know the past itself. He lives in the same city where almost all the rest of those people live. "That's unfortunate, but it was an expensive precaution and it's understandable if your own infohazard-aware delegates chose not to take it. Continue."
"Possible priority point two. Seemingly basic features of this world, including the method we are using to communicate, show signs of bizarre strong optimization according to no fitness function we are able to deduce. Now that we've contacted you, it seems possible though unlikely that a very strange thing will happen during dath ilan's next total lunar eclipse. Very roughly, everyone nearing or anywhere after their twelfth birthday should completely fast for two days before dath ilan's next total lunar eclipse, just in case. We think astronomical timelines should be synchronized between our worlds, but if we're wrong and that's immediately about to happen on your side, it constitutes a massive planetary emergency for you and you must request more precise instructions at once."
On the one hand, oh dear oh dear. On the other hand, this does raise much further the already-dominant probability of the whole thing being a prank, pending final testing. Derrin is now personally well past 99-1 betting odds that this is fake.
(Criminally faked by Helorm, that is, not faked by authorized personnel testing the system. That should not happen at Derrin's level, at all; this was sworn to him. A lesson has been preserved from hidden history: Weird-emergency-handlers need to immediately know that weird emergencies are for real.)
"I'll check that as soon as we've finally-verified," he says. "Is there a priority point three?"
(Of course Derrin is still treating the situation as real, until and unless final verification fails. It's not just the lopsided bet payoffs, it's that Civilization made a promise to everyone who honestly does hear a voice in their heads.)
"A retrospectively obvious-seeming thought in this world, about future technological developments, is very conspicuous in its absence from dath ilan; and we expect it was declared infohazardous by you," Helorm repeats carefully. It's obvious why this part is being spoken over her head. "We're not sure whether the object-level phenomenon is predicted to be dangerous, or if it's that thinking about the subject is considered cognitively hazardous to unprepared individuals. We suspect the former case but haven't yet deduced truly-strong-arguments on our own. This world is currently going full ahead on pursuing the corresponding technological developments. We estimate it's more-likely-than-not at least five years out, possibly much more, but we don't know how to narrow it down any more than that."
The Keeper sighs internally. Isn't that a fun thought, if this whole thing isn't a prank. But a putative prankster could easily have deduced Artificial General Intelligence as an obvious thought and then noticed that thought's absence; hundreds of thousands of smart dath ilani have done so, and have checked in with Keepers about it, not uncommonly being recruited as a result. "Priority point four?"
(One of the fundamental principles of civilizational design is that, once you build a dangerous mechanism, there is some chance somebody might trigger it, deliberately or by accident. If you build thirty thousand nuclear weapons, and then somehow oops they all get set off, this is a kind of thing that happens when you build thirty thousand nuclear weapons in the first place.
If you ask what the mechanism for a First Contact situation ought to do, the answer is that it should do some things you'd want to avoid doing if there was not a First Contact situation going on.
Dath ilan can aggregate almost effectively enough to be something like a single entity in some ways, especially in emergencies. Making a deliberate choice to strip the phrase 'dath ilan' of the agent-marker doesn't change that, whatever it may morally emphasize.
Dath ilan has become almost like a person in some ways, and the First Contact alarm produces something of a startle response.
So it should be as impossible as possible to set off the First Contact alarm unless First Contact is actually happening, even if some of the people in charge of the system decide they've gotten really bored. Ninth-rank Keepers can go insane too.
So consider then this question: How could you possibly verify that you are talking to an alien civilization, in a way that nobody in all of dath ilan should be able to fake? After all, to ask some difficult question that is proof of great wisdom, and know the aliens' answer is correct, wouldn't you have to know the answer yourself? And then, might not somebody else figure it out too?)
"Speaking into my head would be interesting, but not full verification from the standpoint of greater Civilization; I'd prefer you avoided that for now. On our own plan, there's two roads we can take from here. The first one is that I transmit a specification of a problem, in a simple programming language, which is too hard for our civilization to solve, but which we could easily verify a solution for. That strategy was designed for higher-bandwidth First Contact channels than this one seems to be. But it's the diamond standard if you do have a good way of receiving a higher-bandwidth transmission, and you have fast programming capabilities, and powerful computers."
This general class of possibility has also been considered, and a fallback strategy devised.
The Keeper starts listing some possible math questions that require large amounts of computing power to answer, questions that seem of sufficient probable interest to alien civilizations that they might have computed them already.
Helorm repeats the math questions to the voice, and repeats back the voice's "Yes" after the Keeper mentions primes of the form 2^n-1 for some integer n.
Then "51", after the Keeper asks how far they've gotten.
51 is... a lot.
And Derrin was not expecting the other end of this call to cheerfully go along with any of his tests, at all.
Well, this is it. The Keeper keys a preliminary acronym into a symbol pad, then says, "Give me the exponents for the 45th up to the 49th such primes. Whichever five such primes come after 2^32,582,657 - 1."
(How can you build an alarm for First Contact situations that nobody inside Civilization itself should be able to trigger, if you can't just send off a hard computational problem and verify the solution?
You could ask for a higher Mersenne prime than Civilization has ever searched, and begin to verify its primality. But if it was possible to verify a large candidate Mersenne prime in a few seconds, it would be the sort of question where it was possible for a mildly rich investor to test lots of 8-digit numbers quickly and discover the answer themselves.
So instead, Civilization has found the 45th Mersenne prime via a large public-effort clustered computer, and then (according to Network repositories on the subject) declined to announce that prime as it announced the previous 44. Instead, the discovered number was stored in a few secure places; as one of several potential resources for use in verifying First Contact with some more powerful civilization.
And this is literally true, so far as literal statements go. It's not like the government makes a habit of literally lying; that would be a very bad habit for the government to acquire. People would then need to expend mental effort, during every interaction with the government, on wondering whether the government's words were related to reality at all; and if things ever got anywhere near that bad, the dath ilani would toss out their current civilization and start over.
But that literally true statement is also a trap. One can imagine some illdoer who wants to trigger a false First Contact alarm. There would be all manner of ways an illdoer might imagine profiting from that situation. Even dath ilani try to avoid leaving billion-dollar bills out where ill-intentioned people can too easily pick them up.
The 45th Mersenne prime, 2^37,156,667 - 1, is not heavily guarded. It is not that impossible for a criminal to steal one of the stored copies.
The 46th Mersenne prime, 2^42,643,801 - 1, is stored in only one place, an advanced weapons silo already under strong guard. It was searched-out and discovered under conditions of much higher secrecy. Any criminal trying to pose as an alien civilization, one might hope, will not realize that they need to steal a 46th Mersenne prime at all. They'll just show up with stolen knowledge of the 45th Mersenne prime, and no knowledge of the 46th one.
So if a 'contactee civilization' shows up with knowledge of the 45th Mersenne prime, but not the true 46th prime, some highly placed key figures will have a pretty good idea what happened.)
(This about dath ilan: Within it, there are a number of serious, altruistic, cooperative, highly and perhaps overly intelligent people, who have never gotten a chance to be a cunning mastermind in their whole lives, outside of maybe some fiction they write on the side.
One of those frustrated would-be masterminds, if you ask them to outwit hypothetical criminals, is not going to stop thinking, gaming, counterplanning, and building traps, until they have run out their full budget.
The 47th Mersenne prime was searched out under conditions of even greater secrecy, and never written down at all. If you write something down, somebody might steal it.
Instead, after the 47th Mersenne prime was found, it was deleted. Only a cryptographically secure hash of it was preserved; and that was used to build three black-box circuits that can verify, up to once per day, whether or not their input is the previously found exponent of the 47th Mersenne prime.
If somebody shows up knowing just the 45th and 46th Mersenne primes, but without the key input to the black boxes containing a secret hash of the 47th prime, the Government will have a good idea what happened. And the Government will be very very impressed, though not at all amused.)
(Now consider: how secure is that arrangement, really?
The first question: could some lone genius devise a much faster way of finding Mersenne primes? This does seem relatively unlikely. The method for testing Mersenne candidates is already running nearly as fast as possible, according to some provable lower bounds. Mersenne numbers are the largest known primes exactly because they are a special case whose primality can be verified in time very close to a lower bound.
Separately, there are a lot of would-be mathematicians in dath ilan, and a lot of them are looking at prime numbers, and the monetary and prestige bounties for fundamental discoveries there are already quite high. It happens maybe once a year, in dath ilan, that some lone genius finds a single lump of low-hanging fruit that large; and so that is unlikely to occur with respect to this exact math result in particular. A discovery like that is not something a would-be prankster can reliably force reality to give them, not with any amount of effort. Furthermore, being a mathematical supergenius in dath ilan is a full-time job. So far as Civilization knows, not a single such mathematician has yet found time to become a criminal mastermind on the side.
Then move on and consider the three black-boxes containing the hash of the 47th Mersenne prime. All three were placed in guarded locations, but guarding is imperfect. And perhaps, what artifice has built, artifice might be able to probe? If you could read out the stored hash result inside the black-box device, you could test many possible inputs against that hash. Which, if that hash can be checked immediately, during an emergency time-sensitive First Contact situation, will allow for parallel verification of candidate inputs much faster than a Mersenne candidate can be checked for primality. From this, the original input, the Mersenne prime, could be recovered.
And above all - given that Civilization was able to find the 47th Mersenne prime in the first place, without coopting all of Civilization's computers for a week to look for it - might not some sufficiently enterprising criminal be able to collect enough computers, or break the security on enough Networked computers and coopt their computing power, in order to find the 47th Mersenne prime themselves?
In security, it doesn't matter how much higher you make a wall, if somebody can just walk around it from another direction. Putting infinitely many security guards around the stored hash of the 47th Mersenne prime won't prevent somebody else from finding it again the same way you did. The project that found the 47th Mersenne prime was not given an infinite budget or an unbounded draw on Civilization's computing resources; it is a fundamentally shaky assumption to imagine that nobody else in Civilization could do what that project did. That's why the project leader didn't bother trying to make the whole system any more secure than it already is.
Hopefully, a clever criminal does not realize that finding the 47th Mersenne prime is necessary at all, to fool Civilization...
But that is security through obscurity.
Well, but seriously, though: this hypothetical criminal must now be anomalously rich, or anomalously good at breaking into Networked computers. And rather than putting this prior resource to any more profitable and less attention-gathering purpose, they have become fixated on fooling Civilization about whether First Contact has occurred - briefly, for the weeks required to verify a higher claimed Mersenne. Such a criminal now seems unlikely.
Absolute certainty is impossible to both bounded and unbounded agents. So doesn't there come a point where you have to distinguish possibility from probability, and say you've done enough?)
(There is a family of sayings in dath ilan, all of which begin with the proverb, "A bounded agent cannot do all things", and continue onward to say that bounded agents can aspire not to overpromise what they can do. A bounded agent can't achieve perfect discrimination by assigning 100% probability to all truths and 0% probability to all falsehoods; but a bounded agent can aspire to calibration, to only assign probabilities as extreme as 90% to events that actually happen 9 times out of 10. If, being a bounded agent, it doesn't know with any greater surety and can't attain any greater surety, it can aspire not to claim that it is any surer.
For project managers, the saying goes, "The bounded budget you're given cannot attain all the customer's desires, but you can aspire to report back honestly which goals are feasible."
Even among a certain sort of frustrated dath ilani, they wistfully aspire to be sane masterminds, not mad ones. They aspire not to be overconfident in their cunning plots, if they ever have a chance to plot properly.
The project manager in charge of cunning Mersenne plots reported back to his superiors that he'd made it reasonably difficult for a criminal mastermind to know the 47th Mersenne prime by means other than recomputing it themselves; which would require the following budget a factor of three greater than his own, absent public-good discounts; or breaking into the following number of Networked computers; and it would also require deducing that the whole series of traps existed, but that, unfortunately, any smart person might deduce. The line of Civilizational code had been rendered very unlikely to ever execute in real life, realistically speaking; but the hypothetical illdoer had perhaps not been rendered less probable than an actual First Contact.)
(The 48th Mersenne prime is separated from the 46th and 47th primes by a noticeable gap.
It was found over the course of three days, using four percent of the power of a supercomputing cluster millions of times more powerful than is known publicly to exist.
Only one such supercomputer exists in dath ilan. Every line of code which runs on it is accounted, monitored, and checked by multiple independent lines of reporting. All the chips within it were manufactured by an entire technology base that is also not supposed to exist. If a dark conspiracy is running unauthorized code on this supercomputer, or if they rebuilt that entire technology base with nobody noticing, dath ilan is already having a catastrophic civilizational failure and a massive emergency. It is the sort of thing that genuinely should not happen, as security assumptions go.
In the next lines of the theorem-proven code that found the 48th Mersenne prime on that supercomputer, the program hashed the result and deleted the original.
That hash was a distributed hash. It is not possible for some enterprising criminal to sneak into a single location containing the stored hash of an expensive 8-digit number, extract the stored hash, and try a hundred milion possibilities against a fast hashing algorithm.
Instead, there's twenty locations with shards of a hash; twenty nodes that need to send messages onward to each other, in order to arrive at a final result that each node will locally verify. Trying even a single entry against them all is a rare exceptional operation that people will notice; even if you break into the system three times, you won't get nine tries.
These twenty locations are all the sort of places that were already under the heaviest level of operational security. It is genuinely reasonable to say, as a security assumption, that clever criminals cannot break into 17 of them without notice.
Only if the distributed locations agree they have received 17-of-20 correct partially-hashed inputs from each other (so you cannot stop this by sabotaging any three of them), will the corresponding local alarms go off. People at each of those locations will then start checking with each other by telescreen, to confirm that the alarm went off everywhere and wasn't a local anomaly caused by somebody hacking the local trigger that checks for the distributed confirmation.
Nobody on dath ilan knows the 48th Mersenne exponent; no conspiracy on dath ilan should be able to obtain all the pieces needed to reconstruct it; and no faction on dath ilan should be able to find that number the same way it was originally found, unless they have already gained control of Civilization's secrets nearly in toto.)
The number 57,885,161 goes in and is split up into a distributed hash, which is then transmitted on to twenty different special-purpose computers all over the planet, sending partially hashed inputs to each other that can be locally verified given other remote inputs.
The verifications check out.
No one in Civilization should have known this mathematical fact, or been able to learn it.
Something knows it anyways.
Six thousand key people are paged, woken up out of bed, or have VTOL aircraft dispatched to grab them.
Emergency-alert melodies play in a tiny remote causally-sealed passive-observation bunker containing some people who actually learned history, in case this is a situation where remembering the past would help enough that the seal on it ought to be broken.
All the anomaly filters are disabled on all of the software; the last 24 hours of stored data start to undergo re-review without those filters; and everything anomalous is queued for review by millions of idle or interruptible dath ilani mechanical-turkers who have just this second been paged with override project-requests. Civilization turns a massive and unsustainable level of attention on inspecting itself for anomalies, starting with military installations, key infrastructure, and anything to do with children.
A massive three-stage fission-fusion nuclear weapon on top of a space-capable missile is armed and released to Governance control, along with a sequence of smaller fusion weapons, in case anything on or near the planet needs to be vaporized.
An additional cryptographically hashed message is recovered. This one combines with a code in possession of the current head Keeper. It permits her to broadcast a radio signal that, if its one-way hash matches a stored result built into secret hardwired circuits, will destroy every Networked computer in dath ilan on ten seconds' notice.
Green lights flash in the streets of a massive secret city housing all the Artificial Intelligence researchers. Dath ilan has not built an emergency best-guess-alignment Artificial General Intelligence to keep in reserve; they have Earth-orbit asteroid monitoring, they are carefully monitoring the Yellowstone caldera. The chance that an Artificial General Intelligence will be wrongly set off, if built, has been evaluated by secret prediction markets to be greater than the chance that such a tool will be suddenly needed on short notice. This prediction has now been revealed as horrifically wrong. The green lights are telling everyone to drop everything and take their best current plans and move forward now, trying to get dath ilan as quickly as possible to the point where in an emergency it can turn up a dial on the intelligence level of hopefully-aligned AGI; though of course they are not supposed to actually turn up that dial, unless everybody is about to immediately die otherwise.
Emergency testing of the purported 49th Mersenne prime is now in progress.
After Derrin presses the number-finished key, there's a five-second pause, and then his keypad flashes blue.
Keeper Derrin is as shocked as he's ever been in his life. He lets his eyebrows go up visibly, since trying to present a perfect composure he doesn't actually possess would contradict his pride; if he wants to look that imperturbable, he needs to practice until he really is that imperturbable, not fake it. "Checks out," he says. "Observers, one of you go check the date of the next total lunar eclipse. There's no preset code for that scenario and you need to start emergency rupture of our causal containment if that event is less than one week away. Also, observers, if my keypad did not just flash blue, tsi-imbi."
Helorm actually chuckles. Part of her is starting to go along with the pretend reality, especially given that she's sitting right next door to a psychiatric hospital and should really have been sedated by now. [He said 'tsi-imbi',] she tells the voice in her head, and hears a startled laugh from the other end.
"The voice in my head says to tell you that you're not insane either," Helorm says a moment later. "Wait. How does the voice know what tsi-imbi even means, if it's from an alternate civilization that diverged long ago?" If she's going to take this seriously as reality, there are Many Additional Questions here.
The Keeper is currently entering acronyms on his letterpad, preset codes which roughly translate to 'Putative parallel timeline of humanity, pre-curtain divergence point' and 'Contact is with small subfaction of contactee civilization' and 'There might be superintelligences hanging around near the other end of this call, though they are not putatively directly on the line' and 'Contactees probably don't understand their contact method and got it from elsewhere' and 'Contactees have not figured out Artificial Intelligence is dangerous' and 'Contactees have already interacted with at least one invited or abducted dath ilani' and 'Contactees claim to be interested in positive-sum reciprocal cooperation.' Obviously, direct transcripts of this conversation can't go out of causal containment until somebody has thought about unknown infohazards of unknown magnitude. These preset codes, transmitted in deterministic order, will get things started.
"Time-dependent processes have now been set in motion on my end," replies the Keeper with the auditory track of his mind. "If there's nothing time-dependent on your side, you can go ahead and tell her."
Helorm would laugh painfully, if she wasn't too busy. [Well, I haven't been sedated. So either this is real, or I never managed to call the First-Contact-psychiatric-hotline or leave my apartment at all, while still noticing myself being fully alert and my senses being fully detailed. Which is not supposed to be how insanity feels; and the truism is that, if you find yourself still clinging to the insanity hypothesis at that point, it's probably because you're trying to flee from a reality that's actually real. I suppose that, exactly like characters reason-out in books, I've now reached a branch of my decision tree that I simply didn't expect to reach; where the straightforward story about my being immersively insane has become sufficiently improbable that I should flatly disbelieve it, even if all of my alternative hypotheses seem even more improbable; which means the actual truth is outside my hypothesis space; which means I should open myself to experience and start figuring it out. Not really helping with my stress levels, but there it is.]
"I guessed. You don't need to repeat this next part to me, if it seems more private-interest than public-interest." It's not that a little kindness is more important than all of Civilization, per se; but if there is not actually a tradeoff between a little kindness and all Civilization, then it is still good to be kind.
[I'm going to relay to you from someone who doesn't have my transmission ability. I've been using non-word telepathy to communicate with you across the language barrier; I do not speak Baseline and will not understand what I relay in Baseline, it's going to be directly from her without my interpretation.]
"She says she actually did die and then materialized there, which is really very odd but moderately less of an impossibility by their standards than ours. Thellim, if that's really you, what happened to you after you pressed Start three times?"
"It actually is Thellim," Helorm says, a strange lifting bubbling sense going through her. She notes absently that she seems to be crying; she doesn't refocus attention to stop the tears, there's other stuff going on. "Anybody pretending to be Thellim would have given the correct answer, it shouldn't be that hard to find. Only my real daughter would tell me to shut up."
"And returning to track," says Keeper Derrin. "Thellim, what's your present situation vis-a-vis mental integrity, alignment with Civilization, and Algorithmic standing?" The taken dath ilani might lie, of course, or this communication could be manipulated; but that doesn't mean this question's answer is uninformative across all possibility lines.
[This planet is crazy-making in several ways, but I assess my core integrity is intact and I haven't been pushed more than a couple of standard deviations below average sanity. I know of no important regard in which I disagree with Civilization, as I knew it two years ago, on the key final utilities at stake. I have not defaced the Algorithm; no near misses, nothing I regarded as a significant temptation on that score. I have acted as I thought Civilization would wish, as the only finger of dath ilan that could touch this world or help it; I was aware of the financial rewards for doing so, if Civilization could ever be reached again, but that was not the primary reason I did it according to my conscious narrative.]
[Earth is - analysis-resistant. Extremely hard to compress, for a human mind at my intelligence level with dath-ilan-shaped priors. I do not have a proper report prepared, Keeper, I did not expect this contact project to ever be successful. The last time I tried to compose a report was half a year after I arrived. I was still mostly in a state of shock then. I had not gotten over it and started trying properly to adapt. My prepared report from then is - too lacking in basic understanding of Earth -]
Helorm exercises a mother's discretion and interrupts after repeating. [Dear, stop trying to advance-excuse your future failings in front of the Keeper, and just embarrass yourself with your best spontaneous report. He's probably already looking at your test scores and doesn't expect you to be any smarter than you are.]
[Yes. Sorry.]
[Earth is weird. It would be impossible to write fiction for dath ilani using Earth as a setting, because you'd have to interrupt every other paragraph with three pages of backstory about how any specific feature of Earth could possibly end up the way it did. You get here and you see the people and they look human, and you think you know how a high-tech human civilization is supposed to work, and you're wrong. It's hitting inside the lower-than-maximum-entropy parts of your probability distribution, doing things you specifically thought couldn't happen.]
[The least expected, most impossible fact about Earth - which has fewer consequences and seems to be overtly responsible for less of the overall weirdness than I first thought on arriving, because this isn't a literary story with a single added impossible premise - is that every person, during the total lunar eclipse falling nearest to their twelfth birthday on either side, has a roughly 1 in 1,000 chance of gaining apparent extraordinary powers. Some are 'psions' with powers over minds and computers; 'mages' have more material powers. My native cofounder Isabella is a psion, and practiced up her skills at mental communication until she could sustain this connection to my mother, who I identified to her as best I could.]
[The powers of 'psions' and 'mages' on first manifestation are extremely uncontrolled to start with, lethal to others and often to themselves. Unless they have consumed nothing containing calories for 48 hours prior, in which case their powers have nothing to fuel them, and can be safely contained. Their metabolisms otherwise seem to work the same way ours do, including triglyceride stores and glycogen reserves and some people having longer-lasting intestinal digestive processes. So it's not a matter of energy availability in the bloodstream; the phenomenon literally tracks what they've eaten.]
[Earth's civilization has the eclipses barely under control, using precognitive psions to foresee twelve-year-olds accidentally eating, and so preventing them from smashing cities. They then use recently-developed virtuality technology to give psions and mages a safe way to get their powers under control. Mages and psions are now growing more common; but that part is extremely recent, and powers take time and practice to develop and specialize.]
Keeper Derrin is not even trying not to make a horrified face. He is never going to be imperturbable enough not to react to statements like that. He doesn't want to be that unperturbed. Ending up disturbed and indeed antiturbed seems right and proper in this situation. Even if you blame it all on superintelligences, that doesn't make it sound any more likely even in retrospect.
[The next most critical fact about Earth is that... I register that my native cofounder will probably wish to put this differently, once it's her turn to talk, but still: from a dath ilani perspective their civilization is made entirely out of coordination failure. Coordination that fails on every scale recursively, where uncoordinated individuals assemble into groups that don't express their preferences, and then those groups also fail to coordinate with each other, forming governments that offend all of their component factions, which governments then close off their borders from other governments. The entirety of Earth is one gigantic failure fractal. It's so far below the multi-agent-optimal-boundary, only their professional economists have a five-syllable phrase for describing what a 'Pareto frontier' is, since they've never seen one in real life. Individuals sort of act in locally optimal equilibrium with their local incentives, but all of the local incentives are weird and insane, meaning that the local best strategy is also insane from any larger perspective. I cannot overemphasize how much you cannot predict Earth by reasoning that most features will have already been optimized into a not-much-further-improvable equilibrium. The closest thing you can do to optimality-based analysis is to think in terms of individually incentive-following responses to incredibly weird local situations. And the weird local situations cannot themselves be derived from first principles, because they are the bizarrely harmful equilibria of other weird incentives in other parts of the system. Or at least I can't derive the weird situations from first principles, after two years of exposure and getting over the shock and trying to adapt. I would've been much better off if I'd tried to understand it as an alien society instead of a human one, in retrospect; and I expect the same would hold for an Earthling trying to understand dath ilan.]
[In the 'country' I'm in, and most but not all other 'countries', it's considered forbidden to speak of optimization-over-heritable-variation; people practice it only on an individual basis rather than a socially planned one, while denying to themselves and others that they are doing even that much.]
"To be fair to the Other, among students of reconstructed-probable-history, heritage-optimization is considered a prime example of something a young civilization could easily screw up on an existentially horrific scale," Keeper Derrin says. Perhaps he shouldn't be pushing back against this exposition of the Other's foolishness, but he'll try it once and see where the conversation goes from there. "There are no save points nor rollbacks for the population gene pool. We may have been incredibly lucky, in our own early history, that we didn't accidentally breed ourselves into small yappy pets. Re-extrapolating from the amount of genetic selection undergone by domesticated bear species relative to their natural-bear ancestors, we can infer that the concept of deliberate breeding must have been around for thousands of years. Extrapolating historical progress thousands of years backward as a regress, the idea of natural selection must have been discovered at a time when early groups of humans knew very little else. It is very easy to imagine a civilization having accidents with their early attempts at heritage-optimization that would lead the Others to, for very arguable reasons, close off that entire field until their prediction markets indicated near-certainty about the results of any future attempts."
[Keeper, if dath ilan's real prehistory was anything remotely like Earth's - never mind. Let me try again with a different example.]
[Elections in the 'country' I'm inside run on a system where the person with the most votes gets elected, which produces strong incentives for strategic voting and an immense obsession with backing only 'electable' candidates and not 'wasting' votes; one of Earth's own writers described it as a system of only voting for lizards, because otherwise the wrong lizard might get in. Now, you're wondering why this is public policy, when surely the prediction markets predict that other electoral systems would result in much better observables over voter-aggregation outcomes. And the answer is again complicated but, basically, their whole society just isn't organized that way, in fact, prediction markets are illegal. Which isn't just about the politicians being awful, it's about the voters having been traumatized into a fear of numbers, by an 'educational system' that would make me physically sick to recount to you. They'd be scared of a political system that had even more numbers in it. And if you're wondering why their experimenters can't explore the space of possibilities and discover a better educational system - well, again their whole society just isn't organized that way; again, it's basically illegal. Most things are, here. Illegal I mean. Not just against custom, actually outlawed, with no exceptions because there's no exception routes built into almost all their laws. But also their society doesn't generally rely on its experimenter-analogues to figure out questions like that; which is in part because the experimenter-analogues generally can't figure out problems much more difficult than the deterministic-visible-mechanism level; which is in part because their experimental reports aren't allowed to mention likelihood functions.]
[EXTREMELY POORLY. There's an enormous subjective incoherent inconsistent branch of pseudo-mathematics whose entire purpose is just to avoid ever mentioning likelihood functions, which doesn't allow the results of separate experiments to be combined into a single piece of evidence except through fantastically complex manipulations that often turn out to be computer errors. Very little of the resulting 'science' is reproducible even in surface findings, a fact which they call their 'replication crisis'. And it's not because the lunar eclipses are suppressing the concept of likelihood functions from their minds; Earthlings can understand it, they had the concept before I got here, although it wasn't in their central Network's repository page on statistics. It's not the lunar eclipses, there actually is an enormous conspiracy of 'journal editors' who all act simultaneously to prevent anyone from using real math to describe their experimental results, on pain of their work being suppressed from elite channels. Only it's not actually an explicit conspiracy, because if it was an explicit conspiracy, it would be coordination, and if Earthlings were trying to coordinate on that scale, they would fail, and lots of papers would be using likelihood functions. The main conditions under which Earthlings actually manage uniformity of action, at that scale, is when they're acting out of an unspoken will to all make the same mistake at the same time so none of them look any sillier than each other.]
[Yes Mom, that thought occurred to me during the first half-minute just like it did to you, and no Earth is not using secretly valid logic it is actually crazy. I am willing to bet cash that the-people-much-smarter-than-I-am will back me up on this rough informal judgment.]
After Helorm repeats that to the Keeper, she adds, "I'll take that bet for 24 labor-hours at 1:1," speaking with the casual assurance of somebody who won quite a number of bets with Thellim when she was twelve, and who doesn't think the situation has changed significantly since then. Thellim is a dear, but it is much more likely that she is failing to understand the different ways of an alien world than that an advanced technological civilization has arisen which is 'actually crazy'.
[Understandable. I am, in part, venting at this point, because I have not had anyone to talk to in two years who could understand how crazy this planet actually is. But, Keeper, also - remember how I said that Earth taboos optimization-over-heritable-variation? The third most critical fact about this planet: I estimate the average inferred-central-intelligence-factor here to be roughly four standard deviations below our own, with a standard deviation around four-thirds ours.]
"Four standard deviations below us!" Helorm bursts out, when she's finished her sworn job of transmitting. She can't even imagine a society like that; -4sd is low enough that someone would have trouble learning calculus or statistics, even as an adult. The sequence of events leading up to a 'giant failure fractal' suddenly seems much more horrifyingly plausible: some historical accident leads to heredity-optimization being forbidden; undo and backtrace through however many generations of not selecting for intelligence, and all the positive change in dath ilan that can be attributed to that. And an entire planet ends up - and even if their standard deviations are wider, that's still - "Thellim, that would make you one of their cognitive elite!"
[Ha ha. Yes. That's me now, all right, member of Earth's cognitive elite. Bluecheck on Twitter as of two months ago, even, which is the closest this planet has to publicly declaring that you are important. The person who literally actually invented prediction markets here has invited me to publicly dialogue with him. I am now the very smart people who are smarter than the other people. It's ridiculous, horrifying, and sad in equal measures.]
[Though it's not about intelligence, really. The population here is over seven billion, so there are still hundreds of thousands of people across the planet who have my level of fluid intelligence or better. It's more about my having grown up learning mental skills that don't exist here. In theory, Earth's cognitive elites should be smart enough to learn those skills the same way I did, but nobody here was smart enough to invent them. Just the fact that I ever apply numbers to moral situations at all, 'unironically' as they say here, is widely considered to make me a crazy person who went all the way off the deep end of utilitarianism. In this place I am not the smartest - but I am the highest-ranked Keeper, the greatest master of terrifyingly sane epistemology on this planet. Pay attention to Mom's horrified expression while she's repeating that because things are in fact that bad.]
[...embarrassingly little, at least so far as actual accomplishments. I didn't actually think we'd ever be successful in contacting dath ilan, before today, so I tried to transfer what comparatively useful knowledge of ours I could.]
[And I... did not have much luck in that. They're generally equiv-tech, matching us in advancement of underlying materials despite the general craziness - maybe because their population is larger, maybe because mages make up for bad institutions, maybe because their world has a longer real history behind it, maybe because they pushed ahead further on computers, I don't know. I did not carry with me the specialist knowledge to benefit a mostly-equiv-tech civilization. Earth already has chromium-manganese steel, and I don't know how to engineer more comfortable chairs.]
[So I started with logical decision theory, which seemed like the simplest important thing they had not invented that I actually knew. Or at least, I knew what the theorems ought to say, if not how to prove them. Results, at least when tried by someone at my competence level: I got very little uptake from local economists, I did not know how to describe things in their special prestigious language and they would lose face if they were seen paying attention to anyone who doesn't speak that language. Some of the few locals who seemed to understand my informal descriptions became more honest and better-coordinating people. Others went crazier and now spend a lot of mental effort trying to coordinate with other civilizations they are not actually in contact with. I backed off decision theory after that. I also didn't have much luck in convincing their civilization to use likelihood functions in their experimental reports, on the epistemic side; even though I could remember how the proofs work there, at least.]
Helorm still does not understand how the poo you build an advanced technological civilization without anybody ever using a likelihood function. But she is not without awareness of the stereotypes she has been starting to embody, over the course of this conversation; and despite what her daughter probably thinks now, Helorm is in principle capable of repeating her daughter's words to the Keeper without interrupting.
[I eventually gave up on planning specific interventions, and started dumping everything I knew. My models just weren't predicting the future well enough for me to plan. My dath-ilani-taught mental skills seem to let me do moderately better than an average Earthling of equivalent intelligence, especially considering how far I started out of my element, but I don't seem able to take on Earth's whole civilization and win. So far the most mileage I've gotten out of my dath ilani training is talking about the mental skills explicitly and using those accounts to impress people who read my blog, yes I realize exactly how poorly that speaks of my real mastery. But I also couldn't think of any cunning plans that seemed more helpful to Earth in real life, than if I just started directly blogging everything useful I remembered from dath ilan. There's now a sort of... minor community that grew up around my blog, over the last year? It's nothing like dath ilan, I think our software mostly doesn't run on Earthlings unless you start the install much earlier in childhood. But I can somewhat talk to them, though they are all more similar to each other than they are to me, and there are weird selection effects going on that I did not foresee coming in advance.]
(Dath ilan doesn't have a single-syllable word for "cult" any more than Earth has a single-syllable word for "Pareto optimal". Helorm is referring to a fictional name which became a proverbial trope for inhabitants of a fantasy world who form a conspiracy obeying eldritch outsiders in return for promises of their personal wishes being fulfilled. There is not any connotation about the conspirators dressing funny, because dath ilan does not have the concept for "cult" in that way.)
[I put in all of the obvious-to-a-dath-ilani precautions against that happening, as adapted to local forms of insanity. So now my definitely-not-Kelthorkarni have weird mental inhibitions against actually listening to me, even when I clearly do know much better than they do. In retrospect I think I was guarding against entirely the wrong failure modes. The problem is not that they're too conformist, it's that they don't understand how to be defiant without diving heedlessly into the seas of entropy. It's plausible I should've just gone full Kelthorkarnen.]
[Mom, I tried. You have no idea what Earthlings are like! If you show them how not to do it wrong one way, they find a different way to do it wrong instead! But fine, if you want to put it that way, there is now a dath-ilan-karnen that is definitely not obeying me or anything.]
(Thellim's exact grammar used for this last statement evokes a dath ilani character archetype that is similar to an Earth "tsundere".)
[I made no particular effort to keep my origins secret, after realizing that the aggregate cognitive competence of the world was not high enough to detect myself as an outsider. I simply spoke openly of myself as a dath ilani and everybody assumed it was a storytelling conceit, even after I dumped the concept of logical decision theory on them and yelled about how probability theory doesn't work like that and so on. Understand, Keeper, there is no analogue of your own position on Earth, no Keepers, very little that we would recognize as a shard of true governance. There is no person on Earth who is responsible for detecting somebody like myself, or who has explicit responsibility for handling somebody like myself if detected. The entire planet runs like a car on autopilot, with no autopilot.]
[They might if I decided to provide them with definitive proof. Absent that, all Earthlings will just ignore an issue on that level, both individually and collectively, if nobody is absolutely forcing them to pay attention; the step where they have to decide whether it's true is enough to defeat their mental procedures. I mean, there's one native who decided that somebody ought to be handling this at all, and she's the psion Isabella Marie Swan, who was told about the event by the people who directly saw me materialize. Isabella is the psion actually handling this communications channel and repeating my words into it.]
[Well, I don't know what she was saying, because I don't speak Baseline, though I'll be able to retroactively interpret the conversation when I pick up the language, but based on having ever spoken to Thellim on the topic of Earth, yeah, probably. Is there something in particular you wanted my perspective on?]
Perhaps he should not have told Helorm that, then. "She mentioned lunar eclipses that granted powers to 1 in 1,000 of your population; that seemed like relatively technical information and I will not prioritize it for perspective-checking. She claims that our world, from your world's perspective, has a central intelligence factor roughly three standard deviations above yours, though with three-quarters the variance; such comparison across worlds would seem potentially fraught, but ultimately guesstimable. Still, if that is false, it is a priority to say so."
"But primarily, what I would wish to ask you is this: assuming Thellim was able to describe accurately to you dath ilan for purposes of contrast, how would you describe to us - the differences between Earth and dath ilan, especially as they relate to how dath ilani try to coordinate groups to achieve more of the goals of the individuals in those groups? Has Earth chosen a way unlike ours deliberately, whether or not for reasons we would understand as wise? Is it indeed true that there is nobody on Earth whose job it is, and rightfully so as seen by Earthlings, to deal with such as I, in the way that it is my own acknowledged delegacy to treat with you?"
[I got an IQ test for Thellim one time and she scored within a few points of me, and I'm four standard deviations up from average for here if you count my psionic enhancements, though I got my test normalized so that memory in particular wasn't tested for because mine's magically eidetic. Assuming Thellim was accurate, let's see... it is not meaningful to say of Earth that it as a whole has made any choices. There are certainly - organizations who it would come to mind to go to about aliens landing in some more legible fashion, but not only is there not widespread agreement on which institution is the best one - almost all obvious candidates are national governments, of which there are dozens - but also none of those institutions is anywhere near as widely trusted and respected as your thing seems to be, so a lot of people, presented with aliens who were not obviously setting anything on fire literally or metaphorically, would not choose to inform them, and might tell somebody else or no one at all. I'm not a completely ludicrous pick for this job but also I was not in fact picked for this job by any picking-people-for-jobs apparatus, I just precognitively detected a mass email a former classmate of mine had been going to send about how there was a person in his living room who didn't speak the language and he wanted to know if anyone from school was an omniglot. Which I'm not but my telepathy can cross language barriers.]
Derrin listens, processing as best he can, as it goes. It seems like mostly confirmation. "It is not meaningful to say of Earth that it as a whole has made any choices" seems more scathing to him than anything Thellim has yet said. Presumably they have, in a sense, made the choice not to set their whole planet's land areas ablaze; but a charitable interpretation of Isabella's statement would be that this is only because people have individually not wanted to set those fires, not because coordinated Earth made a decision apart from those individual choices.
Then one point jumps out at him. "You are yourself a precognitive psion?" In retrospect Derrin should have prioritized asking about this point much earlier, but he is smart, not wide; he is juggling a very large number of knives. "Is this conversation, itself, one that you have selected from among many possibilities?"
[For me, steering power, and for Earth, uh - gains from trade, and any of your assorted insights you can non-destructively transmit, with the caution that I believe you may have historically become acclimated to a destructive form of transmission; Thellim doesn't know enough history to contradict the supposition.]
Derrin is slightly confused by this, but manages a plausible decoding: Dath ilani may individually have such means or motive, but their entire civilization has never before been faced with the temptation of a whole other parallel-planet, full of people that the smartest dath ilani (if not average dath ilani) could perhaps outwit, and without the power of organized resistance.
"Would you, Isabella, take all that we have in dath ilan, if the power to do that lay within your capability alone, and we could not oppose you? And if not, why not?"
[No, because I'm a nice person, and also I am not especially horrified by anything I believe you are ongoingly doing as opposed to my suspicions about your history. To be clear, I expect that your motive would be in a sense humanitarian, I just think based on Thellim's example you need a lot more orienting to the situation before you try to take humanitarian actions more complicated than selling us customized chairs. Which, to be clear, you can't do now, but I can go forward with publicizing dath ilan's existence and get some mages on it if that seems like a good idea.]
The main reason dath ilan would try to take Earth by force is if it looks like Earth is about to erupt an unstoppable horror that expands at lightspeed, or faster given the fundamental possibility of mages and psions, consuming all surrounding galaxies in both its own dimension and in every other resource-bearing dimension Earth can causally contact, including dath ilan, and any other worlds that can be contacted by psions, mages, and whatever psions and mages turn into after they get eaten.
Thellim either has not realized this (75%) or has not mentioned it to Isabella (25%).
[Do you know whether the powers of mages and psions can transmit causality faster-than-light, especially without prior slower-than-light transmission of a receiver?]
"I meant to ask more broadly than your own personal telepathy. Have any mages opened two-way portals to the poles of the Sun-closest planet for colonization, for example, especially if they did not need to send another mage by ordinary rocket to that planet first. Or just tapped a finger on your Moon."
"Do you know whether the planetside teleportations or other such phenomena can occur, in round trip, faster than lightspeed limitations permit?" He wants to think that surely their curious ones have investigated that, but if the whole planet is like a car on autopilot with no autopilot...
Thellim isn't sure why this question is arising in the middle of the question about whether or not dath ilan is going to conquer Earth, but she has obviously taken a prior interest in that subject.
There's a mage supposedly training himself now, to settle FTL questions once and for all. But in terms of experiments that could be done with mages and psions that happen to already exist... there's been improvised experiments with remote-viewing clocks on the other side of the planet. There's been improvised experiments with an ancient highly-practiced weather-mage who can stir a wind on the other side of the world. All such experiments have "failed to produce statistically significant evidence" of a 20-millisecond difference depending on whether the target is next door, or on the opposite side of the Earth.
Earth is sufficiently confused about how evidence works that Earth scientists have not dared to try to say to reporters that this looks like magic is FTL. Thellim has gotten ahold of the raw data and treated it with sane numerical procedures, and derived strong-enough likelihood ratios against 20-millisecond delays; real epistemology is quite capable of saying that an effect size has been ruled out, not just that somebody failed to produce statistically significant evidence for any effect size.
[FTL information reception: 0.99y/0.01n
FTL causal transmission: 0.98y/0.02n
FTL counterfactual information reception: ~1y/~0n, reminder: precognition is a thing]
Thellim doesn't transmit back the reasons. If the Keeper wanted to reconsider her reasons and not just the final summary probabilities, he'd have asked her for her reasons. It feels so nice to talk again with somebody who knows what it even means to trust her sometimes.
Not the answer he'd have guessed. But all right, if the physics of the larger universe that embeds Earth and dath ilan permits superluminal travel, the Great Silence is vastly exacerbated as a question thereby. Combine that with something superintelligent probably having passed by Earthsystem and left magical eclipses in its wake.
Then if Earth has not already been invaded and consumed, externally originating invasions and consumptions are perhaps also prohibited by whatever passed, or by something above it.
This moderately reduces the chance that Earth is going to erupt with an unstoppable horror that eats dath ilan. It is still something that the smart dath ilani will be very concerned about, given their current total lack of comprehension of many, many Additional Questions. It is plausibly something that dath ilan would invade Earth over. It is not necessarily something that dath ilan will invade Earth over, given that there is a chance dath ilan will not be annihilated.
"Forgive me the sudden line of inquiry. My own first thought was that dath ilan is - most likely to behave in a manner that might be termed impolite and abrupt - if it seems like your world is about to completely annihilate our own, even inadvertently. However, if FTL is possible, it is moderately less likely that you can accidentally do this to us, because then aliens would have been more likely to have done it to you already. You speak of humanitarian interventions by dath ilan; I take it that Thellim has already forecast cases in which she thinks we might wish to so act?"
Thellim has been listening to some of this on relay. She requests a transmission-relay, of language-less telepathy rather than Baseline syllables so that Isabella also hears this time. [Keeper, Earth has a tremendous number of people who I would read as traumatized, tired, or just plain unhappy with Earth. When and if we have teleportation scaled up sufficiently, I believe we should have by then prepared to receive the entire Earth population as refugees; if some choose to stay, that will provide safety margin. Isabella will be shocked if teleportation at that scale happens in three years and surprised if it is less than ten.]
[I think that - naively the civilizations meeting could go very badly, or well according to only one set of values, though I'm not actually sure who'd come out better for it, and I don't want that, I want - full meetings of the full complexity of what's going on on both planets, and there are probably lots of things we can just hand over straight across like access to the custom chair store aforementioned, but I do not want you, say, accumulating a lot of power and then wrecking our study of history, or committing cultural genocide, or systematically disenfranchising people for believing in ghosts, or anything.]
She's not sure who'd come out better for it? Isabella does not seem very frightened of what would eventuate if the Keepers went full eldritch on a designated-target civilization with -4sd intelligence and almost no coordination ability. Even leaving aside the structures dath ilan will have just started assembling in the Basement of the World, to be used only if the alternative is an even greater risk of both worlds' true death.
Isabella does not seem to realize that all of Earth's negotiating leverage stems from Isabella's ability to cut this sole line of communication, leaving dath ilan helpless to stop Earth's own death erupting and reaching back to dath ilan - unless Thellim found another psion before it was too late, as she might, especially if she realized what the danger actually was.
They're mentally occupying very different negotiations here, clearly.
But Isabella seems to be negotiating in good faith, according to what she thinks the situation is; based on representations from a dath ilani who did not, herself, have any inkling of how scary dath ilan actually was. They do go to some lengths to not have those possibilities be realized ever.
And when a hand has been stretched towards the Keepers in good faith and hope of good faith returned, the Keepers will reach back in good faith returned, to benefit the one who reached out to them in hope that it would benefit herself and her kind. Even if that good faith means a greater risk of the true death of dath ilan. Because there's that, and then there's the Algorithm.
That's why Derrin hasn't prioritized speaking to Thellim a delayed-cognition hint that she'd later recognize as Artificial Intelligence being lethal enough to imply that Thellim should find a second psion to provide another channel back to dath ilan, if this one gets cut.
That's why Derrin hasn't started optimizing over the Earthling as an objective. She didn't precog him.
She didn't precog him, not because she knew that she was in a Prisoner's Dilemma with somebody who could do something back that was equally dangerous in its own way, but because her friend asked her not to, and she was nice.
Derrin isn't about to prove himself any less nice than that. There's no point in being smart if it comes at the expense of being nice.
It's all the same trust, down to the world's end, whether one end or another.
They're called the Keepers of Harmful Truths because that's the part that only the Keepers keep, but they have much more important things to keep than that. The trust, the faith, the Algorithm, the flame, and the Light.
"You have reached out to us in good faith, Isabella," Derrin says, speaking for Civilization, as he was authorized by dath ilan to do in situations like these. "We will return that good faith no matter what. Whatever the sad end you do not wish, we will avert it. Whatever you are afraid will happen, we will find another way. There are bright truths that have not, I suspect, been reflected often enough, in your world's history. Here's a bright truth that dath ilan has reflected well enough, for the short history that we remember: People can just not do the wrong thing, they can do something else together. And if the steering power you want, to have the strength to avert sad endings with your own hands, lies within sanity and reason, we will give it to you if that was your price."
[Earth has ideas they've deployed to make up for lacking coordination, methods that can accomplish the same ends by legitimately simpler and more elegant means, where dath ilan does the equivalent of brute-forcing it by manually instructing everybody on dath ilan to step left at the same time. Probably the most striking example is that one Earth economist worked out that varying the money supply, in such fashion as to predictably regularize the total flow of money, can prevent missed-opportunity trades due to downward nominal wage rigidity... roughly, if dath ilan is willing to grow and shrink the currency supply according to fairly simple rules, I think you can shut down the entire executive branch of the government that tries to get people to be more willing to adjust prices downward, and replace it with one conditional prediction market plus ten lines of code running on the currency computer.]
[Well, it certainly isn't hard to think of the one issue that caused Isabella to win the largest number of you-were-right-all-along points off of me. And it's definitely the insight that's going to have all of dath ilan kicking itself the hardest, when we realized how much we missed, and how hard we missed it; and how our own concept of the Light probably caused a huge number of individuals to all shut down something important inside themselves as soon as they started to see it, because it didn't look like they thought something bright should look. But I am not going to try to explain BDSM while this entire conversation is being routed through my mother. Isabella, can we actually take that minute and get a transmission lock on Keeper Derrin now -]